Inside The Data: Exploring Sack To Pressure Rate For Eagles Defense After Bears Loss

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2:03Welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds. I'm Jeff Mosher and of course I'm joined by Sam Finkel. He is the man with all the data and analytics and he's got a lot of numbers that he has crunched from an eagles 27-7-Loss Monday night against the bears. Now stick with us. We've been doing this long enough. I'll let you in on this but you probably already know Adam and I tend to notice that when the eagles lose, sometimes people just don't want to hear about it and they don't want to listen to the coverage. Listen, we get it. We're all human beings. But the data is important. Talks about trends and we don't just talk about what it happened in a game but what it means for the season or what the current trends are compared to the leaks. Sam's done a great job of continuing to evolve some of the data, some of the charts and make

3:04it very reader-friendly for those of you at home who watch on YouTube and listen to her friendly for those who just listen on the podcast platform. So Sam, for the first time this year we have to recap a loss. Yeah, they're never the fun episodes but I mean I think there's a lot of interesting trends and things that we can talk about to at least contextualize this performance. I would agree. All right, let's get right into the charts right away. As we start off as we usually do, I love this, the peak win percentage because for the first two weeks, Sam, it was sort of a weird line right because the eagles would do well and then the opponent would come back and then the eagles would do well again. But this one from start to finish was not really looking great for them. No, it definitely, you know, there are points where you can see them coming back and there's a chance and then hope soon faded quite quickly. Yeah, fortunately. Yeah, I think it's pretty interesting that their highest win percentage was 52%, which is not

4:04a very high winny percentage. Yeah, it actually almost looks like there's no play there but even before the game, their win percentage, like you can see that line, and for those that can see it and those that don't, their win percentage starts out higher than their highest win percentage before the game was started, which is kind of interesting. I think just as a throwaway thought, but yeah, 52%, it was during the second quarter, eight minutes and 15 seconds left following the Saquon Barclay rush for 14 yards and second and four at the Chicago 15 setting up first and goal on the one and Chicago was winning only seven nothing at that point. Correct. Is that, no, I was going to say, is that the drive that ended in the Dalton reception? I don't know if that was that one. I don't think so. I believe a second quarter, 815, it might have been. It might have been. Yeah, I think it was. I remember, I think this one was the one of the times that they were in like a different personnel group too on that second and four too. I think they were in one of the

5:08weirder formations that they were in. They were in 21 at that formation. So they're highest winning percentage in the second half, 39%. That's pretty low. Yeah. All the Eagles were falling behind, but it was when Keenum had an incomplete pass on third and five. I almost don't remember Keenum incomplete passes on third down. They were very few in far between for sure. Sure, for sure. All right, so that's this is a new look for the Eagles. They're usually in a game and it's been a while since they've been humiliated like that. Absolutely, unfortunately, it had to happen that game, but I, yep, hopefully they can bounce back. All right, we are at the favorite part of my show already, not because I'm gloting about anything, but just because when I say favorite, this is the most, you know, probably discussed conversation that you and I have had since going back to last year. The trend that continues for the Eagles about third down. It's definitely something to discuss for sure. I mean, the Eagles regressed back to their 2025 form with, you know, a conversion rate of

6:1322.2 percent on two for nine on third down while allowing their opponents to a superior 38.5 percent of five of 13. Right. Now, the amazing thing is as your chart shows, this year they're still converting 46 percent of third down, which is a high number. That's a good third down rate. It is. 39, right? And that's despite going 22 percent against the bears, but it takes us into our next category. They have a such a ridiculously high conversion rate on third and short and third in medium, which is a great thing, except this recurring problem that they're in third and long more than they're in third and short and third in medium combined. Combined. Combined. Yeah. Yeah. Which was last year's issue. Well, last year was double. You remember, it was like, well, listen, we're only three weeks in brother. True that. But I mean, the thing that to me is concerning is if you look at their opponent, they are, their opponent is having double the amount of attempts for both third and short and third and medium exactly.

7:14So, and I think that's really interesting. I mean, you look at it, they have 12, their opponent has 12 attempts on third and short and set and I'm sorry, they're on third and short, they're double and they're double on third and medium. The Eagles are so so Philadelphia is four for six on third and short. And the opponent is nine for 12 on third and short. So, they're having six more opportunities, double the amount of times in third and short. The Eagles conversely is what I was trying to say. I apologize for that from speaking. The Eagles are nine for 14 and third and medium and half that, they're keeping their opponents to seven. But their opponents aren't converting that third and medium at the same rate. The Eagles are there two for seven. Right. And the Eagles are nine for 14. So, that's pretty significant. But if they could change that, right? If they could have more third and short, I think their success rate could be even higher. But again, it goes to sequencing, which is something we talked about last episode in a lot last year and they just have not been successful setting up manageable third and short and third and mediums. I don't know how it changes, man. You know, like Zebra don't change their stripes.

8:14The Eagles, this sort of invites a conversation about their identity and who they are. The reason why you're in third and long is because your running game is not dominant. And it was in the first half against Chicago. We'll give us a second, but not so much in the second. And, you know, I think there's certainly a personal versus scheme issue going on right now. You want to run wide zone. You need blockers on the edges. They don't really have very good blockers on the edges. No. And so I wrote a story for Philly Voice about this week, right? When you look at the rate, everybody's tired of hearing about it. But the Rams, the Bears, the Niners, and to some extent the Packers, they're struggling this year. But you look up and down the rosters and they've built their teams around having guys like George Kittle or Pukinacua or Devante Adams, even a good blocker as a wide receiver, right? Or the Bears with three interchangeable tight ends who can all block and who can all catch, right?

9:16And you look at the Eagles right now without Dallas Goddard and you've got Johnny Mon who can only block. You got Mackay Lemon, a slot receiver who is going to be your blocker out of 11 personnel. Not a very good blocker. He's your main guy you're trying to spring on a screen. But you got Zach Erts blocking for who's never been a good and first game, right? Or Dallas Goddard, unfortunately, it's not the blocker. He used to be one healthy. He blew up. He had a screen blown up against Washington. So you kind of have a square peg round whole thing. So some of this can be coached up, but some of it is also just who you are now and who you're trying to be and how you get there with the personnel you have. Yeah, I mean, they have to adapt, right? I mean, it seems like the plan was clearly to go into 12 personnel, maybe even 13 personnel. And it just the roster didn't shape up that way. The injuries didn't shape up that way. You have to adapt. Yeah. I also, yeah, I was going to say it has to be, I think it'll have to be part of your scouting process as well. I mean, look, I'm not, I'm not going to say you can't draft Eli Stowers now. Okay, because he doesn't know how to block.

10:17Because he could be wind up being a very explosive tight end. And you still have plenty of opportunities in years coming up to get another blocking tight end. But my point is that was a perfect Eagles tight end for a past offense, right? Agreed. Maybe not so much now for what you're doing. So again, doesn't mean he can't be a good player, but they really have to pay attention in their personnel on how they're going to block edges if they're going to run wide zone. What it just they'll have to have to do things to fit their personnel. It's that whole thing that I think I hate to go back to this area. We're really going to, but it's the chip Kelly thing, right? You can't just have a scheme dominate. You have to scheme your players strengths. I agree. I agree. That's a good point. I'm sitting here talking about how you have to build this thing going forward. But good coaches have to figure out also how to adapt their own scheme. Now, we can't take a step. I've said from the beginning with you and with Adam on different shows. Just because the thing is rocky at the start, you can't just do the Kellyn Moore throw it away and go back to the old Eagles offense.

11:17Because the whole point of this thing is to not get back. First of all, you can't. You don't have the same offense line. But secondly, you have to advance this thing. So you have to see through the growing pains while you're also adjusting and trying to win and catering to your personnel. It's got to be a balance. Yeah. I mean, you're stress testing a lot of these concepts. And you just have to find adjustments on the fly. I mean, that's really what it is. Right. Right. Absolutely. Great example is what Ben Johnson did. I mean, we'll talk about it a little bit. I mean, he obviously didn't have the personnel a quarterback. He was expecting and he did things differently. He played a lot more 11 than 12 or 13. He adjusted. He put his quarterback in a good position. So it's not what he wants to do all the time, but he adjusted what he needed to. And Ben Johnson is an example of one of the best offensive minds in football. I mean, he has the ability to really outcoach anyone because he's just puts his guys in positions to be successful. And that's what I'd love to see from the Eagles offense a little bit more. It's just putting their guys in positions to be successful. That's it.

12:18Love the point. Very good. All right. EPA analysis. This is interesting because I like the new chart, by the way. So explain the colors here. Yeah. I mean, so instead of breaking EPA down just as numbers, I figured graphically showing it may resonate a little bit more and show how exaggerated this performance is at least. But basically the blue bar on the chart is E total EPA per play. The green is EPA per pass and the orange is EPA per rush. Anytime we're talking about offense, positive EPA is better. It's just this. I mean, anytime you have negative EPA, that means that the offense is letting points up essentially. But remember, when we talked about EPA, it's very sensitive to turnovers and negative plays. But the fact that there was a red zone turnover is really for CPI. So I just want everyone to know going into it. Red zone turnover means that EPA is going to be very exaggerated.

13:22So I wouldn't be too scared at the number and why that passes so far down. So that's heavily weighted by the tank Bigs B turnover, right? That one was still. Yeah. Because that was the red zone. That was deep inside the Eagles red zone. If I'm not more inside their 20, if I'm not mistaken. Whereas the interception, Jill and you know, the interception was both of them would because if you think about it, it took points off the board. They were expected to get a certain number of points there. They're probably on that yard line. They're expected to get like 4.7 points because it's a little bit more than a field goal, but not necessarily a touchdown. That would probably was what the EPA would be. But conversely, you know, a turnover putting the other offense in right in the red zone to begin also would swing the EPA significantly as well. Yeah, Bigs B fumbled at the Eagles 12 yard line. That's where the bear has got the ball. Yeah. So both of those massively swing EPA just as a matter of fact. That is definitively what happened. And that's why the passing EPA,

14:24I'm sorry, EPA total per place is so strong. But the EPA per pass is predominantly because of Andy Dalton's interception. Also hurts his interception, but predominantly a lot of that yard, I mean, a lot of that EPA came from Dalton. Sure. Sure. Yeah. I was going to say three turnovers, two of them in the red zone. Well, one red zone, one deep in your own, which I would imagine when you get a turnover like Bigs B did, and you give the other team the ball at your 12, the EPA is weighted. I would think that that would be all because, well, I don't know, because that's not expected points for the other team. It's expected points for your team, right? Like it's not. Yeah, it's really matter where on the field that the, I mean, is that factor in? It does. Okay, so I mean, that's very much does. But this specifically is measuring your team, when you're putting your team in the position. A holistic approach, the Bigs B interception would probably swing heart more in favor of like a total EPA.

15:28But when we're looking predominantly at EPA offensively, it's mostly taking points off the board. That's why you see the EPA per rush is not as affected. Right. Right. And this was to me the most accurate of the three games from an EPA standpoint, because Jill and Hurston run a lot. This was really a Sequan Barclay EPA per rush. And for the most part, Sequan Barclay was pretty good, especially in the first AF 17 for 74 or less. Yeah, I mean, let me be on the board. Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. It's for set 74 is right for sure. But all I'll say is that EPA is very sensitive to explosive place. So Sequan Barclay, I believe had three explosive runs. But those all very much contributed to EPA. That's a big part of it. Good stuff. All right. Now we're going to talk about offensive efficiency. And we're going to go back to DVOA. And again, we'll probably do this for a couple of times. Sam, give DVO the difference between DVOA and EPA. And why coaches tend to like DVOA a little more.

16:31Well, DVOA is a better contextual analysis because it takes every play within its situation. It takes an account down, distance, feel position, time, and score. EPA takes in some of those, not all of them. But the main differentiator between DVOA and EPA is the fact that DVOA adjusts for opponent quality. So it'll say like not every run is worth the same amount. It depends on all those factors I said, but also who are you playing. Right. And overall, DVOA is normalized to 0% represents league average. So it comes really easy if a team is above positive. You can tell from the average how they kind of view. For the passing and the rushing, it's not you have to go more by the rank. But a very simple way to say it, EPA is how much did each play change the team's expected points, DVOA, how efficiently did the team perform compared with average teams in the same situations against similar competition.

17:32Right. The Bears, so for an example, the Bears on their last drive, they were able to run the clock. They got some big, they were starting to wear down the Eagles defense a little bit. But the game was also 27 to 7 with less than three minutes left. So that would be probably an area where DVOA doesn't wait the rushing stats as heavily, because the game's out of hand and it doesn't matter as much. It knows that, which is a good contextual element that EPA would lack. Whereas EPA would account for those explosive runs towards more expected points. So when you have here that against the Bears, the Eagles had the 31st EPA. And so that means of all 32 teams, the Eagles had the second worst DVOA, passing DVOA for the week, correct? Only to New England was 30 seconds. I was going to ask who that would be. We could have done a nice little trivia session. We usually do. We usually do. Right.

18:33But yes, that was the case. So yeah, and they're rushing. They were 17. So they were right around the average for that. But yeah, minus 30.8% not great place to be. And if you look at their season this year, I mean, it's just not they're not in a good spot. They're negative 6.4% in total DVOA. So they're like 6.4% under the average. And then you look at their passing and their rushing. They're 22nd and passing and again, 17th and rushing. So they're average to below average, offensively, from a DVOA standpoint. When if you compare that to the last season, they were almost the league average. And then they were 12 in passing. So a little bit above average and then 24th and rushing, let like below average. But then two were more year. If you look at that, they were plus 4.8%. They were 4.8% better than the average.

19:34And they were 14th and passing and 6th and rushing. So a pretty sizable difference between the Super Bowl year and this year. But even last year and this year too. Yeah. Well, they hope better days are ahead, my friend. Yes, yes they do. All right, now this is offensive efficiency. I love this, but this is one of my favorite ones. Just out of personal groupings, it was going to be one of my more favorite ones this year. Sam, because I thought it would be a little bit more spread out. And we would get to sort of have an even level level playing field on 11 and 12 personnel and see what what they do best out of which grouping. But unfortunately their injuries in their situation has they it's made them one of the highest 11 personal teams in the league, which is exactly the opposite of what we thought they would be. I think it's the opposite of what they want to be. Of course, they're just limited and they're trying to make do and they have to make do, unfortunately. Right. So they go ahead. Yeah, no, you please. I was going to say, I guess the positive is they even in using 11 personnel, they did run

20:36the ball better out of that, you know, 37 plays, they had a run success of 67%. Yeah, which is pretty exciting. I mean, you really, any number in the 60s, you definitely feel like you did pretty well out of that. And it's unfortunate. The squad didn't reflect that. But I mean, from a pure successful standpoint, they were doing a pretty good job at, you know, getting the requisite yards that you try to get on each respect it down, they just failed to convert that into points. Right. And obviously you look at the past success at 45%, not great. For only 46 out of 11 personnel, 33 out of 12 personnel. Now, that to me is like the least surprising stat of all because when they got two tight ends on the field, one of them is Johnny Mont, who doesn't catch the ball. The other is Zach Hertz, who amazingly played like 20% to 20 snaps, something crazy like that, who's playing his first game, you know, in about a year. And then EG Jenkins, everyone's a wild gets on the field. So not a big surprise that the passing game is not functioning really well with tight ends

21:40out there who are not really equipped for catching the ball right now. For sure, but I do think it's very, it's a good sign that they had a 62.5 percent run success total. Like I think that's that that feels pretty good. I want more time on that only because if you remember last year, when they really struggled with the run, there were a few games against bad, like when they played the Giants the second time around, they went into the Vikings. There were like three games, three or four games where the Eagles ran the ball well. And we would say yes, it was against a bad defense, but at least it's a sign. And then the next week you would be back to the same. And the Bears, honestly, they do not have a very good. I think Dennis Allen gets the most out of it, but they were a movable front. Yeah, I mean, we previewed that last week. That was a big part of what we were previewing. So it's not surprising that's high, but I do think 63 percent is pretty encouraging. But again, the thing is if you look at the overall success and it's at 51.1 percent,

22:41I would never guess the score was what was. Like you get to the point. I just think that the success rate was a lot higher than it's been in past couple weeks. And if you just showed me this chart right here, I would never have guessed the score is what it is. And that comes down to turnovers. It comes down to like third down conversions, which they, it's where they really struggled with third down conversions this week that they didn't, you know, in the previous two weeks. And again, it's the seasons early, but. Right, but what did we say? We talked about the unsustainability of being in third and long and having 60 percent conversion rates like they had in week two. I mean, it's just it's going to catch up to you against good teams. It is. And that's, I mean, I wouldn't even say this Bears team is, they're not at full strength, obviously, but I would say the version that they saw is not what I don't want to say is a bad team because they beat the Eagles, but they were not the best version of themselves. I'll just keep it there. Sure, I think Dennis, I don't have a really good plan. At least I mean, when you, if you're not facing one of the better defensive teams,

23:41you're going up against a defensive coordinator who has seen you a couple of times and is a veteran and been, you know, he's been through a lot of wars. He's good. Absolutely. All right. The passing, this is the thing that'll make people bristle, especially those watching on YouTube, is that the passing chart looks like the old offense passing chart. It does. I mean, there's a big gap on that middle of the field. There's this. It's jarring. If you look at this week's, or this is last week's, or this is the week before, I did. Right. It's kind of sad. I mean, it kind of regressed back to what we saw last year. I don't know if that's just a product of, you know, the circumstance or if that was actually their game plan or I wonder, like, does the defense force them in? I don't think it's just that. It's just, it's interesting. It's something that'll have to be monitored. Yeah. I mean, I certainly think the way the bears were defending had a lot to do with it. They were, they're mugging up the line of scrimmage and then dropping a lot of guys right at the middle. That's how Edwards got his pass break up and their interception. And they were just,

24:45the Eagles offense was out of rhythm. And if the one thing we said about Jalen Hertz, right? For the two weeks was how comfortable and how in command, whether they were up or they were down or the opponent's coming back, I mean, you watch this game. You can completely, you can clearly see. I think he even said this that they were thrown out of the rhythm and they were not comfortable. So when you're not, you kind of default to your old habits, you look for where you think you can strike, right? And usually for Hertz, that's out. That was on the sidelines. Absolutely. I mean, that, that is a very, that makes sense to me. Yeah. Some of the breakdowns, what, what stands out to you about some of the Hertz throws? Yeah. I mean, he was 16 for 25 for only 153 yards, which is 6.1 yards per attempt. He only had six passes, which is 24% of them, 10 plus area yards down the field. Wow. That's no for him. It's very low for him. But on those throws, he only completed two out of six for 30, which is 33% for 49 yards. It's all season lows, according to next chance, that's.

25:45Wow. And the Eagles went three and out on three straight drives to start the third quarter with Hertz completing three for five for six yards. And none of those passes traveled over 10 yards. Just so unequal like in every way. It was not what we expected from this offense from Hertz. I mean, another, you know, a signature Jalen Hertz thought is usually that CPE. But again, CPE comes from throwing the ball down the field, right? That, I mean, that's where that's comes from. I'm not surprised. Of course, minus 4.6% because the thing is, if somebody drops a pass, I mean, that's, you know, especially if it's one that's, you know, only two yards from Ysr. I mean, that's not going to get that sound high. But that was 26 in the NFL. And then he had a minus 0.59 EPA per dropback, which was the worst. Yeah. Not great. And he only had one turn over. It's not like, well, he doesn't get charged for the fumble that.

26:45Correct. He's right. Okay. And obviously, Dalton through the interception, right? Which is, it's alarming that even with just him being responsible for one turn over, that is EPA per dropback was the worst in the NFL. Indeed. All right. Your pressure box here, always interesting. Time to throw versus time to pressure. Yeah. I mean, the Eagles are both first in time to throw and time to pressure on their offense. I mean, they're holding the ball along this, but they're also actually holding up from pressure the most. Right. You know, there's that being said, I mean, hurts is holding the ball longer than, you know, the pressure that the actual protections allowing for him. Right. And then, but in this week, what's interesting is, and those of those numbers were reduced significantly. I mean, if you look at the season, it was 3.25 time to throw, it was only 2.88 here. So hurts was uncomfortable. I mean, they made me uncomfortable. Yeah. And then the time to pressure drops significantly from 3.1 1 to 2.7. And I wanted to add the league average here,

27:48because I think it's kind of interesting. I mean, it's great. Yeah. It's at 2.9. I mean, the Eagles were significantly over on the year, but they were pretty under, I mean, not, they're pretty much league average for time to throw, but they were significantly under in time to pressure this week. Yeah. I mean, I don't think that's an offensive line stat. I think we say that a lot. No. The players quite frequently were bringing more guys than the Eagles had to protect offensive line lies. Sometimes you know, you keep tight ends and backs in. So they were, they were manufacturing pressure because they felt like they had to. I agree. That's a really good way to put it. Yeah. And again, Alan's one of those guys who knows how to break down your scheme, where you've got three guys blocking two and then one free rusher. He's really going to that. Absolutely. Football is finally back and price picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups. If you win your first $5 lineup, that's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you get $150 in lineups. And now price picks is available nationwide. So what are

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33:02limit two packages. And a 1 pound package of strawberries is 199 with digital coupon. Plus, Kellogg's giant size serial 22.6 to 29.5 ounces selected varieties are 299 each with digital coupon limit three. Hurry in, visit vons or Albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save. Okay, Eagles passing off in pressure and sacks. We talked about a little bit, but this is now the pressure rate. So definitely worth discussing here. I mean, I also added the league average here, right? So their quarterback pressure percentage on the season is 38.7% league average is 33.1%. They're tied for 23 in the lead. Of those pressures, I mean, they are at 8.3% sack percentage on the year, which is tied for 25 while the average is 5.3%. Is that an offensive line stat to you? To me, that is not necessarily an offensive line stat. It's a better stat than the last one we just

34:04talked about. But I mean, sacks can be called as just as easily by the quarterback for multiple reasons. I mean, a lot of times if you don't, you know, slide the pressure correctly or if they hold the ball too long, there's a lot of reasons why I think pressure to sack could be maybe even a quarterback stat to me. But I don't know. I think the quarterback pressure to stat itself is more offensive line to me. Sack not necessarily, but the quarterback pressure one, I feel more comfortable deciding to the quarterback. There were a couple. I mean, there were a couple of herries, and you know, the Eagles don't pass the ball a ton. So if you get like five or six and it impacts that percentage, you know, quite a bit. Yeah. And so I mean, you look at it, they had the same exact quarterback pressure per se at percentage on the season as they did against Chicago, which again higher than average. Their sack percentage was lower than their season percentage, but it was still pretty significantly higher than the league average. And then again, talking about pressure to

35:09sack, 20% of their pressures become sacks. The league average is 15 and it was 17% against your back. Yeah. And I think the alarming thing is that they had the exact like you said, they had the exact same pressure percentage against Chicago as they had all year, but at least weeks one and two, you're seeing guys like Jeffrey Simmons, week one, you saw O.A. Lovoo is a good pastor. I like the Bears. They have Montes wet. He's good. He's not great, but they don't have a ton of guy. You know, great. Jared's getting up there. So it's not like if you would have thought that the the the the Bears would have been handled a little bit more upfront. Yeah, I definitely thought so too. All right. This is a Sequan Barclays run chart. Obviously a huge emphasis on the outside. The Eagles did well. This was the game plan that worked. They felt they could attack the edges of the Bears defense. And for the most part, they did well. Yeah. I mean, Barclay had three explosive runs like we talked about earlier after totally just one after the first two weeks. If you remember, he had

36:09that one really long run that waited there rushing EPA significantly. We talked about Adinaus, but Barclay generated nearly all of his production in the first half. You 73 out of the 82 yards were on 11 carries, which is what you said. Yeah. 4.45 yards before contact. But in the second half, he carried the ball four times for nine yards, averaging minus 0.9 yards before contact for carry. The Bears clearly made a slight adjustment to how they were going to look to me that they just started creeping the either the linebacker or safety up closer to the line is creating a larger front and trying to force the issue a little more. And it worked. But to me, like what what can any running back do when you have negatives here? Basically, they out there in the backfield, a yard behind the line of scrimmage every time in the second half. What is Sequon Barclay supposed to do? I don't know. He was able to not be like you and I could have ran for 4.5 yards each time.

37:10Yeah. Essentially. That's what it means. But I mean, if they're in the backfield, one yard behind the line of scrimmage, there's not much any running back to do. I agree. The the Bears adjusted, the Eagles. I don't want to say they did not. Maybe they didn't have one. Eventually, you have what you have up front. Yeah. All right. What's what do we have now? This is success rate versus stuff rate, right? Yeah. I mean, there's the so the league average for success rate is 40.8%, which is conveniently exactly what the Eagles rushing success rate has been. But against the Bears, particularly in the first half, it was 57.9%, which is pretty significant. Yeah. I'm actually surprised that they were at league average going into the game because we've talked so much about how disappointing their run game has been. Does this count the scrimmage or not? It does count the scrimmage. That's something we definitely have to caveat for sure. But the stuff rate, the average is 15.8%, which is conveniently exactly what their stuff rate was against Chicago. But on the season,

38:13they have a higher stuff rate than that does not count scrimmage, right? Because that does not. No. That's a pure rushing stat. So yeah, they get stuff that a higher rate than league average. It's hard to believe two years removed from the greatest rushing season in franchise history and one of the best in NFL history. And now they're just they're below league average. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable in a bad way. Yes. Yes. All right. Now we're going to go through EPA from the defensive side as we switch here because defense was not what everybody thought would it be. The whole but it's case key and thing did not come into play. No, I don't know. In fact, I think that if that was a mentality even a little bit on the team, they should have re-evaluated that mentality. But yeah, remember EPA on the defense, that means negative is good, right? You want that to be negative because that means that you're preventing the team. It's always from an offensive standpoint, right? So you're trying to say you prevented that offense from scoring. That's why

39:16negative is better. So you look at that 2024 and 2025 units. Everything's negative. You're in really good shape there. And big number negative. Yeah. Big number negative. For example, 0-2. But that's per play, right? I mean, every time you are actively essentially preventing the offense from scoring. Now that's not in the cases here whatsoever. They've been pretty close to zero. That just means nothing's really happening. But they've been positive in EPA per play and EPA per pass. So I mean, you look at that. It was significantly worse against Chicago, right? Their EPA was doubled per play. They were allowing double the amount of expected points. And then essentially 2.5 for EPA per pass. I will say that their rushing was better. Their EPA rushing per rush was better. But that's somewhat reasonable. I'm laughing. Can you imagine comparing

40:16these numbers to last year's Black Friday game? If you had shown somebody the stats from last year's Black Friday game and then said, oh, but this year, the Eagles would have a negative EPA per rush, which is a good, like you just said, negative defense is good. You would have been like, oh, that's amazing. How the hell the world they were able to stop the run after giving up 281 yards a year ago. Oh, well, they got carved up by a 38 year old journey and back a quarterback. That's nice. Just a complete role reversal. It's unbelievable. It is. But you almost wonder if that was part of Fangia's plan is to try to stop the run and maybe just kind of discounted the abilities of Mr. Keenam. It's a good point. I would have I would agree with that if I thought he played like a lot more base defense, but he was still a nickel quite a bit. I just think that they were more keyed into the run and clearly there was some mojo, magic mojo and get a admit. Keenam made some throws under pressure that you just like throw your hands up and say, I don't know,

41:18the Eagles did anything that badly other than this guy just made a unbelievable throw. No, exactly. But I mean, I did think they brought a couple blitz looks that were. It did. Yeah. And to me, like, I feel like a lot of that feels good against, you know, what you would expect that to be successful against Keenam. And if not in run support, you know, you feel pretty good about some of those. But yeah, I mean, let's see what DVOA says because that's a double cornerback blitz. Sam, I mean, he blitzed Wollin and Mitchell at the same time. I haven't seen Victor do that. Maybe I'm sure he has maybe one, but that's like a once in a, you know, moon blue moon type thing and he did it and it still got me. I know. It's kind of insane. So what does the DVOA say? Yeah, I mean, it's a pretty similar story. I mean, it's actually, it's actually really interesting and almost exactly mirrors the last chart, which is that's what you like to see, right? Because when EPA and DVOA agree, what that typically means is the teams are

42:20being consistent, right? When EPA is really off of DVOA, that means there were a lot of like anomalous plays, like just plays that are crazy explosive plays in either direction. They pretty much agree here. I mean, it's almost exactly the same chart that you could just if you scroll, scroll up for the our viewers, really, like, it's almost exactly the same chart as all the way up. You mean, no, no, no, no, the same all the EPA wants. Yeah, yeah, yeah, so we're already down a little bit more. There you go. So right there, right there, right there, right there. And then you scroll up a little bit, see that chart right there and then scroll up a little bit. Yeah, okay. A little bit more. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's almost exactly the same chart. That is crazy. But that that tells you it's not anomaly. They are consistently, you know, above average in terms of the rush defense and low average in their past defense and just generally their defense is not what it was. I mean, to me, it's kind of insane how identical those parts are.

43:24That is what I want to see, right? Because it tells you from the whole story is saying the same thing. I mean, the stats aren't lying. There's no anomalies. This is what it is. At least at this point in the season, that is what this is. All right, for sure. Absolutely. The case Keenam spray chart is like Joe Montana. There's just green dots everywhere and just a few incomplets. It's unbelievable. I was wondering if you liked my section title for this. The case worst case scenario. I had to find a phone there. My pun was, are you an office space fan? Have you ever seen office space? You know, I've seen it, but it was a long time ago. I hope that's cold classic. You know, it's a cool classic. But you remember, he somebody asked somebody like gets mad at Peter, given the said, you must be having a case of the Mondays, right? And then he asked me about classes. Yeah. And then he asked his neighbor. He goes, have you ever heard someone say you're having a case of the Mondays and neighbor goes, oh no,

44:26man, I never heard that. It's my headline because it was such a bad loss to Keenam was case of the Mondays. I love that. That's so great. Thank you. I appreciate it. But I like, I know I'm surprised, like worst case didn't come up to that. That's a very good one as well. Thank you. It kind of came to me during this. I was like, gotta be something. I got to throw at least one of those in there. I know you've appreciated them in the past. So yes, if anything, you appreciate them. Hopefully, the listeners and viewers will appreciate them too. But hey, all right. So the biggest surprise, by the way, is that I thought his CPOE completion percentage over expectation was going to be way higher than 1.1%. There was one pass alone that the crossbody as he's getting hit to a burden on the cross surface. I'm like, that play alone should be like a plus 50%. But I mean, also, if you think about it, a lot of his throws were, I mean, the guys were just skimmed open. Yeah, pitching catch. Yeah, that's fair. To be honest with you, instead of me, I'm not terribly surprised. I'm I'm it should be positive because of throws, like you just said, but a lot of the times,

45:32I mean, it was just their pitching catch, like he said. So it's funny because like that throw that I just referenced may have been like his his best throw, the under pressure, kind of flicks it up, puts it exactly where the receiver is going to be, but not there yet. But yet, the play that probably had the lowest completion percentage over expected because the guy was light open was the Raymond 41 year touchdown, but that was actually his worst throw. He almost threw it behind Raymond. I know. If you go freeze it, Raymond had to like reach back to catch it and then still is able to do that and maneuver his way up the sideline for the. That was the bus at coverage, right? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. That would be a break. The Eagles could have used but hey, yeah, for sure. So he was pressured on 10 of 35 drought 29%. So that shows you right there, right? That that that Vic. Vic did more blitzing than he's done traditionally. He was trying to disrupt case kingdom. Yeah. And I mean, kingdom was extremely effective when bliss, the average 12.4

46:34yards per time, which is the highest since 2017 for him, which is, I mean, that's that's that's NFC championship against taking Minnesota to against the Eagles year. Yes. But like also, I mean, it's case kingdom. We're not like it's there's gaps, right? It's not like we're talking about. Right. So like these relatives statistics from next gen stas are interesting, but a lot of the time it's him coming in relief or during that NFC championship run in 2017. So yeah, I mean, it's crazy. We're talking about things that happened eight and nine years ago, right? It's I mean, who would have thought there'd be two 38 year old quarterback on both sides playing because Andy Dalton's 38 too? Yes. And as people saw on the broadcast, they played against each other in college when the old TCU Houston rivalry got a reenacted right in front of our faces. Yeah. All right. So Granada, Sam, he made his debut. He did. And I do know they can hear and I want you to tell me there's one

47:37stat that is the reason I have it. And I want you to tell me why. Why? Let's see. One stat. It would have been a health. It's not the gut off. No, I don't know. You got me. What? It's that wind percentage. 25%. That's really good. I mean, that is elite. Yeah. I don't know why that didn't jump out to me as obvious. But and however, it is important to understand he only had 13 pass rush snaps. So is it scalable? I'm not sure. But what I can tell you is as he increases, if he keeps anywhere close to that plus, you know, minus five to eight percent vehicles get what they paid for at the end of the day. Like that's that's what they've been missing. A lot of that. I mean, that is super encouraging. If you want to look for something encouraging, it's it's his wind percentage. That's what it is. I mean, if anything we're going to talk about this pass rush, that is the thing that is worth highlighting. Right. Because everybody else was below

48:39average. So you're right. Yeah. Yeah. Not the greatest game for the Eagles, Ed rushers. And then also then we get to interior defensive line. Not the greatest for them as well. No. But there's one other person who had 25% higher. Yeah. That's also encouraging. What's not encouraging is one of the people you just paid a boatload of money to records nothing. Well, he did have one hurry. Well, you're talking about Joe and Carter. I'm sorry. I was talking about David. Yeah. To be fair, we could be talking about either one, but I'm more disappointed in Carter. Yeah. I mean, I know he's playing with a broken wrist, but we're just fair. I mean, that is a fair. Yeah. But you know, and listen, we talked about Jordan Davis getting much fewer pass rushing snaps than Moro, Joe, but it was much closer in this game as you have it here. 24 pass rushes for a Joe Mo 19 for Davis and only one hurry for Jordan Davis. One pressure.

49:43It's not not great. Yeah. When Davis's win rate was 0%. So that that hurry came from, you know, the quarterback one of the ball too long. That's really what that means. I mean, for sure, he didn't win that rep. I mean, I did win that rep because he got the hurry, but he didn't win that rep off his own skill itself. Right. Now it's fair to look at Joe Mo and say another great, you know, 25% win rate. That's elite. He's been doing great. Jumped off sides at a really bad time. Sorry. He did. He really did. But in here's the other thing. You got to convert those pressures to SAC. It's the biggest problem that you go even having this year with their pass rush. They're getting pressure at a pretty decent rate. I mean, this game aside, I mean, the last two games, they're getting good pressure. They're just not converting it. You got to convert it to SACs. And at this point, like we, I made the excuse that you had a mobile quarterback and Jayden Daniels and you had a quarterback that's capable of cam word. You don't have that excuse case, Keena. You don't. I'm sorry. You don't know. You do not.

50:48You're right. Great point. What else do we have to note on the defense here? What did you put up? You want the good or the bad? Jay, listen, we're here for all of it. We'll start with the good. Fallen led the team in defensive stop with five. I mean, he's always going to be, you know, NFL pro attributed that busted coverage to him. What? I promise because he was the nearest defender to it. So I could, I had to throw away all his stats for this week because it was all messed up from that. The context is so important. And that's I just, but either way, five defensive stops led the team pretty good. Everyone else had three. There was a long, long, realist of players that had three defensive stops. Again, a defensive stop is just generating negative EPA. That's what they constitute. It's whatever it constitutes an offensive failure, which is just a fancy way of saying minus EPA. Right. Not a tackle. People have no sense. Not just means you're not necessarily. Yeah. This is a real data point. Yeah. Yeah. It can be. It's just not apples to apples. Defensive

51:53stops is tackles. Right. It could be a pass break up. It could be. It could be a tackle for loss. It could be a sack. Well, I guess I should say every defensive stop is a tackle, but not ever. No, that's not. It could be a pass. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. It could be in the reception. It's it could be a lot of different things. Right. All right. Bad stuff. But the bad stuff. Let's talk about the safety position. I didn't really want to do that. But hey, we're here. Both of the safeties had higher than 40% catch rate over expected. Wow. Apps had 48.1%. Makuba had 43.8%. Yeah. I think Ben Johnson had a lot of, I think he was scheming at him. Oh, for sure. Sure. But what that means is like if you just put a normal safety out there, you know, 40% would be like they would be lower than that. It's crazy. And then both had a positive EPA. Makuba had a plus three EPA. And apps had a plus 1.8.

52:56Which I could put on on these EPA stats, but they attributed the touchdown to him. So he actually led the team in worst EPA because of that busted coverage, which again, is not attributed to him. But that's why it's important to, you know, watch the film and to marry stats with film because that happens more frequently than not. I mean, you have to, you have to kind of look into that. Oh, 100%. And unfortunately with your good news is bad news because Boan suffered a concussion. And he was, I mean, it's going to be difficult for him to make it back with the short turn around. Agreed. And for Sunday against the Rams. Yeah. Good stuff, my friend. That is a look at the game. And it might be painful for the Eagle fan, we understand. But a lot of good contextual data to really, really kind of like mull over as the Eagles go forward because they do have a very strong record of responding to losses. But they've got to get specifically some of the third down issues ironed out. And on defense, they absolutely have to iron out this issue of converting pressures

53:58to sacs. It has been a problem. I mean, to me, this was a very much a pivot point in the season, right? We're seeing some things that have been trending, you know, in good and bad directions. What do the Eagles do with it, right? Did they fix these issues or do they spiral and, you know, blow up? And it's really, you know, their decision. You have to see how the coaching plays in, how the players, you know, buy in and see what happens. We shall. Sam, great work as always. And our next show will preview their upcoming matchup against the Rams and see if maybe the data tells something that we can be positive about. All right. Yeah. Good. Thank you again for all the hard work for Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher. You've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds. Where the paths are rugged and the adventures endless, only one boot has the resilience to

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