“Heating Prices is Up 31%” - Bills SPIKING Before Winter Arrives

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1:26$2,300. So let's kind of go through this. Heating all households will pay an average of $2,300 between mid-November and mid-March. A 31.3% increase from last winter, the National Energy Assistant Director Association projected nearly 4.8 million US homes. Ready? 4.8 million US homes. Homes. How many people live per home? Two, four, five. 4.8 million US homes using heating oil about 82% in the Northeast. The US war with Iran that began at the end of February. Disrupt the shipping through the strait. Brent crude, the source of nearly all US heating oil sat at 106 a barrel in mid-September. Up more than 30% from previous to when the war began. While the war may be thousands of miles away families will feel it when the heating oil truck pulls into their driveways at any ADA executive director Mark Wolf president Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the strait and senators from both parties have asked him to release emergency heating oil the American gas association projected gas households will pay about 14% less

2:28than last winter averaging 497 versus 794 for electric space heating with record dry gas production expect them 2026. Any ADA forecast overall winter heating costs rise more than 8.7% to a national average of 1030. Thoughts on this. So let's go take a look at the chart. I just sent the guys to chart right here. Check on one year perfect one year. Take a look at this pat. If you go down to February at the end of last winter, Vinnie $2.47 $2.38. See that? Multiply that times two 480. Go look at where we are right now. We're at 436. You know what this means? It's going to be 2X. There it is Pat. It's about to be 2X. At $4.80 it's exactly 2X last winter. So those people are going to have double the price of heating oil one winter to the next. That's not sustainable. And earlier today, right after the jobs report, President Trump called on Europe to release

3:32their surplus stocks of diesel because he's trying to bring more diesel into the market to help. That's what's going on. So we are, we need a reversal, but Pat, I don't think we can get it. It takes about, say, 75 days to turn the price based on the- What do you think you won't get it? We're not, I don't think we're going to get a decrease unless it's artificial. It takes 75 days. 75 days today is what? November and, and October November is 60 days. And then, you know, that's December 10th. Here comes winter. You know, you're going to see how cold it is and just watching playoff games. Baseball. It's going to be down into the 50s. That's got to remind me of the time. It's time. So I'm, I, I saw this coming and I'm really, I'm really heavy about it because this is really- No, this is real because this is going to really impact the consumer. I mean- Two X. Two X. That's real cost that we're talking about. And so Tom, when this happens, you know, to some, at what percentage of these 4.8 million

4:35households do you think it will impact directly? Not in the- Of course, it's 100% of them, but which one did I'm going to be like, turn off the heater? You know, let's do this. Where more close? What percentage you think can even financially afford this increase? I- Probably only about 60% because a lot of people are on natural gas and newer home communities and the heating oil is in some of the older communities and older homes. So you know, I'm going to say there's probably a full third. That's going to be my guess. A full third of the customers in the Northeast have limited budgets and can't take that hit. So, I'm going back to it. So Tom, this is all coming from what? Why the drastic increase? Refining cost and the cost of barrel of oil. Cost of barrel oil is about 60% of the increase in gasoline. The other is the increase in refining cost, also known as 321, crack spread.

5:35Those two things are there. We've closed refineries in California. We close refinery on the Gulf Coast. We have not built new refineries or refinery capacity. So the refining is up. The cost to refine is up because of shortage of factories to refine it. But then $99, I think today- Is it barrel? I think it's $99 a barrel. Okay. So what do you just hang it? Supply and demand? So, I think- No, no, it's- Yes, it's supply of oil, but it's also supply of refining. And it's going to take a while to turn this because even if you brought the price of oil down, you're only going to get about 60% of the increase in cost for gasoline diesel down. I think it's going to take to say the short term pain for the long term game. It's not going to be a short term pain time. This is going to take a long time. This is going to be a long term pain because they have to build it- No, they have to- I hope there's some artificial means to do it. It doesn't appear that the natural market forces are going to be able to turn the corner on this until maybe the second half of the winter and it's not going to go down to where it was last January.

6:37Adam? Well, being- That I'm from Miami, I've never had to worry about a heating bill. This is not something I'm familiar with. I will say that winter is coming for all you people out there and you might want to get a nice jacket like the one Vinnie is wearing to stay warm. But can we touch on the story that is right above that one? Where it talks about the everyday cost increase and the high gas prices that are spurring states, states to wave taxes and regulations amid- midterms, which kind of I think correlates with the story, which in my interpretation, this is a great move that certain states are doing. You know how they say that like all politics are local? Yes, we acknowledge that prices are up. Tom taught me a lot about Brent Oil and West Texas Oil and Dubai Oil. Dubai Oil. Tom was teaching me all this stuff. Touch could- It's like wine. By the way, your clip that you put on VT is like a half a million views. It was great. Oh, and gasoline. On gasoline it was great. But what I found interesting is that certain states can do certain measurements to actually lower the cost.

7:38It says about one-third of U.S. states have implemented some form of fuel tax relief. But here's the catch. And this is where politics get into it. Most of those states, if not all, are Republican states. They're red states. Governors in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas have all provided fuel tax relief for their agriculture and have helped lower tax costs. Some tractors on farm. Because they actually want to help their people. Now, in my opinion, why are the blue states not helping their people? We all know that California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, who all trend incredibly blue, why don't they lower the cost for their people? Because in my opinion, they want their people to feel the increase of cost, feel the pain. And say, Trump did this to you. We're not going to do anything. Nothing to lower the cost. We're going to actually hold up this price and make you suffer more.

8:38So this is where this gets a real tricky situation. Yeah. So each of these states are helping their people in red states. So let me kind of let me give you this here. The NEADA says low income Northeast households alone are expected to pay almost $1.1 billion more in heating this winter. You divided a part that's around 878 increase average. That points to an order of magnitude over 1.2 to 1.3 million low income oil heated households. So then if I'm asking a question and saying, who are these people? Who gets hit hard? Seniors and people living in fixed incomes, which makes sense. Households under roughly 60K a year. And I ask, what percentage is under 60K a year? The EIA 2020 for data shows energy, the right just how? Approx be 64% of households under 10,000 58% of households. 10 to 51% at 30 to 60,000 reported some form of energy insecurity. Above 100,000 it drops dramatically. Okay, so make sense. Above 100,000 you're still going to be fine at the 60,000 number that's going to be impact.

9:44Households already behind on utility bills. Any A.D. estimates that about 21.5 million US households roughly 1 in 6 are already behind on energy bills. Damn. Did you know that? I did not know that. I did not know that. Did you hear the number? Vinnie, 1 in 6 households in America right now are behind on energy bills. Not credit cards. There's only, there's only money to carry. So 1 in 6, 21 and a half million households are behind on energy bills. Low income households currently spend about 8.6% their income on household energy versus 3% for other households. And people in New England, this is extremely concentrated geographically in an AIA 2020 data, roughly 53% of Maine and Vermont households, 43% of New Hampshire, 40% in Connecticut, 32% of Rhode Island, 26% of Massachusetts received fuel oil deliveries. Maine was still around 50% dependent on heating going to 2024 and last but not least is old folks homes.

10:46Old homeowners, old homeowners, heating goes much more common into older north eastern. This is, we're praying for you. This, you know, hopefully they figure this part out and some states find ways to get creative with this. But I kind of, I kind of agree that they're going to, they're not going to let this happen because they need the crisis to blame it on trial. They need it. There's no way you're worth it. You can choose not to drive. You can't choose not to free us. We got a special announcement for you. If you notice why I'm wearing the jacket here, this beautiful jacket that on the back, it says faith over fear. I want my friend to my left. You're right. Vincent Oshana to tell you about this jacket. Well, thank you, Pat. So guys, we had this jacket for insiders only at the vault and they were sold. I think they sold in two days. I called you. I'm like, Vindy, let's go have lunch. You're like, Pat, I can't. Everybody wants this jacket. Everybody was behind this jacket. So I want to let you guys know the front of it has our crest. We have the the lion crest here as well. And on the back guys, like our hat say, like faith over fear. This is kind of small.

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