Game Preview: Jaguars at Bengals

0:00All right welcome into our game preview pod on the grower Paul dinner junior in J Morrison are here with you on location. Okay. It's really nice when we get to do it and the stadiums in the background. We're down there, Paker. We just got done talking to Zach Taylor. That's nice. You know what's better? 50 West for the beer in the half. That's right. It's Friday afternoon. Cheers on that. We've got a bunch of information that we want to bring you though about Bengals and Jaguars, which is this weekend. But next Thursday, we will be back here. Look at the beauty of all this space, the beer garden back there. Of course, St. volleyball. Right now it's a little rainy on a Friday afternoon. But it'll be packed next Thursday for our state of the Bengal show, which is at seven o'clock here at the Worcester Pike location of 50 West. Myself, Jay, Mark, Charlie, special guest. Really excited about the special guys we're going to have there. Giveaways that we're going to have. You know,

1:01we do giveaways big. You're going to want to be a part of that. And what's we talking Bengals? Talking ball. Cowboys are playing the bucks. Thursday night football game is happening. So we'll start at seven and we'll lead you right up to kick off and maybe beyond hang out, watch the game with us in the beer garden here Thursday night, eight o'clock, state of the Bengals 50 West Worcester Pike. Let's talk about how people will be feeling about the state of the Bengals though right now, Jay. Bengals in Jags is on CBS. It's one o'clock Sunday at home. How about this crew? Tom McCarthy, Robert Turbin and Tiffany Blackman. We haven't seen that crew in a while. No, I didn't. I thought Robert Turbin was a radio guy. I didn't even know he was doing TV color or color analyst. It's apparently it's not that they think it's a bad game. There's just a lot of other juicier CBS games. You've got, I think chiefs and Raiders is where Jim Nance's crew is going to be. There's some other bigger games that you wouldn't expect to see this crew for this game, but here we are. But here we are. Bengals Jags big game. Jags are a

2:04good team. Okay. They're two and one. The last week they throttle the Patriots, 35 to six. They have one 10 of their last 11 regular season games. And the playoffs last year, they had lost a really close one of the bills, 27, 24 and the those obviously, you know, the winner of that game could have very easily ended up in the Super Bowl. So Jags come in here hot and everywhere. Yeah, they do. And they really, they there was about mid season, but that they got really good on the road after the loss in Cincinnati last year. I think they've only have two road losses since that game and week two last year. So team that plays well all the team, but a team that travels well also. Yep. So we'll get into the Ben MGM line here. The Bengals are two and a half point favorites with an over under 51 and a half. That's a high number. I mean, last week Bengals Steelers granted very different feel was 42 and a half. Yeah. They're expecting fireworks on Sunday. I don't know how I feel about that. I don't need there. I'm leaning

3:08under just because I look this up. It's only the 19th time in Bengals history. They've had an over under that high. It's only the night time in Jaguar's history. And the Jaguars are the under is six and two in those games when they had a 51 and a half or higher total. So I think everybody's kind of thinking good quarterbacks, banged up Bengals defense. You look at what the Bengals did last week 30 to 27 Jags 35 6 higher scoring offenses. I want to give it away. But I think it's going to go under. Yeah, that over under is my best bet. Under is what I'm seeing this thing. I mean, the Jags defense has not given up more than 20 points in the game in the regular season dating all the way back to the middle last year. Nice break in. So that's me. I think there should be more focus probably placed on how good this Jaguar's defense is and less on the quarterbacks. It doesn't mean that the quarterbacks can't play well. But I just think I'd be surprised to see this one turn and do a shootout when you consider how good the Bengals defense has been in spots. And particularly how

4:10good the Jaguars defense has been. Yeah. And you think that maybe if the defenses are really good to the point of their force and turnovers, create some some defensive scores or some short fields, maybe that kind of pumps up. Sometimes good defense can cause the over to hit. But I don't think that's going to be the case this week. Yeah. Do you want to remind everybody get down to Ben MGM Sportsbook at the banks before one o'clock on Sunday and get your picks in for pig skin, pick them. It's going on every single week. You pick 10 games against the spread and the top 10 players at the local Ben MGM Sportsbook at the banks each gets $100 in online bonus best. Just go down there and get signed up for your Ben MGM rewards. They'll hook you up with that real quick, put your picks in the kiosk and then collect the dough like J has two weeks in a row. Yes. In the top 10. And I took my $100 and free bets last night and put on the Steelers and there it went. We're not telling you what you should do with it afterwards. But you might as well go try to acquire the money. So that's going on every single week. Jay, you are still in the Ben MGM

5:14Survivor pool. It's down to I believe 13. So what do you think? Where are you at? I mean, why give up the trend now? I'm sticking with fame, the dolphins. They're in Minnesota this week. A Brian Flores revenge game. You know, they let him go and kind of a controversy over. They were asking him to take cost it off and some draft picks. I think Brian Flores and the Vikings just put it on the Miami dolphins this week. Alright, so Jay's got his picks in. You get your picks in a video Ben MGM sportsbook at the banks this weekend. Alright, what's your best game bet? So my best game bet is going to be Jamar chase receiving yards over 80 and a half. And we talked about the Jags have a really good defense. But Jamar has played three games against the Jaguars. He's averaged 130.3 yards per game. He has touchdowns in two of those three games. His rookie year, he was six catches for 77 yards. Since then, the 2023 Monday night game with Jake Browning at quarterback 11 catches,

6:18149 yards in a touchdown. Last year week two with Joe burrow for about a quarter and a half and then Jake Browning 14 catches 165 yards in a touchdown. 80 and a half just seems really low for Jamar with presumably a full four quarters of Joe burrow. Alright, I like that pick. Whether it looks like it's going to be nice, no rain. No rain is expected. So maybe that helps your shoot out talk. Look, it's like 77 degrees. 8% chance precipitation should be a beautiful day for a football game on the Ohio. Last time these two teams played was week two of last year. You mentioned it. Joe burrow got hurt early Jake Browning came in clutch. Jake Browning who led them to a game winning touchdown in that game. And the bangles moved to two and oh, and it wouldn't go great after that. But uniform combo, Jay, what do we got this weekend? The AC DC back in black, black on black, black jerseys, black pants, orange stripes, orange

7:19socks. Eighth time they've worn this combo. They're five and two in this combo. Alright, let's talk about injuries and news. Maybe you are checking in to this podcast just for this. It has been kind of the biggest story of the week. And that's who the hell is going to play in this secondary? Well, the latest out of the bangles that we just heard from Zach Taylor in the secondary Jordan battle and DJ Turner who Turner popped up on Thursday with the limited are good to go. They're expected to play them. Battle has specifically been battling his injury. So we'll see how he plays on it. But good to go there. Kyle Dugger is out. So Brian Cook, the other safety is in a will see. So we'll see if he's able to go or not. I think, you know, test it, figured out they really have until four o'clock on Saturday with practice squad elevations to decide who needs to come up and play. So somebody else needs to be know they're going to be down. So they've got time to get to

8:20game time. But feels very game time decision. When we talk about what's going to happen with Brian Cook also, Dite Dalton Ryzener at guard is in the will see mode, whether he's going to be able to go. He got banged up at the tail end of that Pittsburgh game. And so if he can't go, I would expect to see Jalen Rivers out there at right. Yeah, that would make sense. And Brian Cook, it's, it doesn't sound like they're worried about him doing more damage to the, to the ankle. It's just a matter of Kenny go, can he tackle? Can he be himself out there? We, we saw how bad the tackling look last week against Pittsburgh. So you, you want somebody healthy and fast and strong back there on the back end just to be the last line of defense. If he can't PJ Jules, Russ Yees, who's on the practice squad, both are going to be candidates to step up in some capacity and, and fill in for losing two of their safeties in one week. Obviously substantial fallout. Jalen Davis already on IR, you knew that, Dax Hill moves into the slot. And we'll see who plays the most between

9:23DJI into Cario Davis on the outside. Talk to Chuck Berks this week, talked out golden this week, both a lot of good things to say about the opportunity for DJI video. So it doesn't need to be maybe trending in that direction. Let's talk a little bit about J, you got some stats for me? I do. So the, the Jaguars, as you said, of one 10 of their last 11 regular season games, they have a point differential in that span of plus one 99. That's insane. It is the best 11 game span in the NFL since 2021. They are rolling. And let's not forget it was a first year head coach, Liam Cohen last year. You saw what happened with Zach in his first year. You see what a lot of coaches go through in their first year. What the Jaguars are doing right now is really impressive. And that whole coaching staff is just hitting it stride. Jaguars leading the NFL in fewest points allowed right now. They have, I mean, they've out, they've just been throttling people.

10:24They've outscored their opponents 48 to six in the first half right now. Zach Taylor, notably eight and 43 when trailing at the half 41 and 17 with leading at the half, not allowing the Jaguars to do to the Bengals, what they've done to almost every opponent at this point will be critical in this one. A new segment on the pod this week on the preview pod. Who's the center as we talk about who Dexter Lawrence is going to be looking up potentially trying to ruin his day. Your center this week is Robert Hansey. He's 28 in his third year with the Jags right in the bottom quarter of the NFL last year in past block efficiency. Dexter should be able to eat in this one. Not exactly stars at the both guard spots next to him either. Really that feels like a spot where this needs to be a Dexter game for the Bengals against this Jaguars offense. Okay. Most importantly though, Jay, ref report time. This made me sit up in my seat earlier this week when I saw your post on

11:27SI. So what give me the details might have been a little clickbait. But I said that the Bengals have never won with this referee calling the game, which is true. Alex Moore, the Bengals are O and one with him. He is a brand new referee. And as you might expect, the brand new referee trying to get himself in good. Maybe I'm going to be trying to get himself good with the league or he's just not good at it. But a lot of flags. He's fourth in the league this year at 16 flags per game last year. 16.13 flags per game. That was the most in the NFL since 2018. It was the second most since at least two twenty thirteen when certain sites started tracking this thing. So very, very flag happy crew on Sunday. So here's a cheers to him deciding to go against his own personal trends, not for flags on Sunday. No one wants to see it. What are you drinking by the way? Where'd you go with? I'm drinking a coast by coast or coast coast coast coast coast. Yes. I have the American logger. It's a nice look.

12:28It's early in the day on a Friday. We don't need to go in hard. I obviously you have a different approach. I don't have kids to go on and take care of. So I'm I'm going. Let's get into this game and some of the stats that that matter most. I think for me, Jay, one that I'm going to stick with is going to be red zone execution here. The Jaguars defense has had a great time down there. Brewing people's day when they get into the red zone, 10 red zone opportunities against this Jaguars defense this year. Only two touchdown scores for no scores. So they've forced field goals, but more often than not twice as much have taken it away or eliminated them to zero, then he's then they've had allow into two touchdowns. So Jags defense in the red zone has been tough. Ken Burrow and the bangles make the most of their trips down there. That's going to go a long way to the side in this one. I mean, they've been pretty good in the red zone. A lot of the Evan field goals are not settling when they're in the red zone.

13:29They're these bombs from 50 plus. So that is going to be a really, really interesting matchup on Sunday. For me, the stat that matters the most, I'm going to go Trevor Lawrence completion percentage. When he's under 60% he's four and 28. When he's at 60% or higher, he's 33 and 15. Now a lot of people say, well, that just makes sense. If you're if you're struggling to complete passes, you're going to be bad. That's not necessarily the case. He's played 80 games. So 40% of his games, he's actually been under 60%. This happens fairly regularly with him. Joe Burrow has also started 80 games. He's had he's 39 and 11 when six year better. He's six and three when he goes under 60. So he finds ways to win even when it's not there. And the reason that I went with completion percentages because what we talked about earlier, this fangalous defense is so banged up in the secondary. So not letting Trevor get the easy completions over and over and over again.

14:29It's going to go a long way and helping this team win this game. All right. Let's bring in the results of the share facts, credit union, poll question of the week here. Jay, here's the problem. I've been trying to get to four having 25% exactly here. I thought we were going to do it last week. I thought last week we were close this week. Honestly, this is, it's an embarrassment. I got to look in the mirror at myself and I got to consider how I can get better. This is the equivalent of the Bengals trip to Minnesota last year and setting having one of the worst days that they've ever had. This is what it feels like for me. We got 95% on Brian Cook in this one. So we talked people into that. We did talk to them into. I blame myself. There's a lot of heirs were made along the way. So I'm going to be better next week. I'm going to get back into the film, self scout and hopefully have a better share facts, credit union, poll question for you next week.

15:29You guys didn't think that Kyle Dugger, Kobe Young or Jayland Davis's injuries. We're going to be as important as Brian Cook's. We shall see. We shall see how that goes. Grower bet time here. Jay, let's get into the grower bet. Send your submissions for your grower bet answers to the grower. podcast at gmail.com. You can win drinks at our live show, right? Either right behind us or when we head out to the deer field 50 West location in November or and a grower shirt. Get it did. Nice little J's got stats shirt. You can get a grow pal grow gal. We got a bunch of merch that you could have. You could win if you can get in with the correct answer. This week's question. Chase Brown rushing yards. I'm asking this for a very specific reason though, Jay. The Jags have not allowed a 75 yard rusher in 20 consecutive gates.

16:32It's impressive. They just don't his overrun, or over under number. If you're looking into what that MGM has on it, they have it at 60 and a half. So keep that in mind. What are you going to say for Chase Brown rushing yards? Is this the day that the Jags streak breaks through and chase Brown breaks through as he's kind of been looking for those elusive explosives? But there he may say that to you. I was looking at Chase Brown to maybe be my stat that matters most because I remember that Monday night game with Jake Browning. That's when he kind of really burst onto the scene and he had a couple explosives in that game. His numbers against the Jags in those last two games have not been great. And so the Jags, nobody's numbers have been good against the Jags lately. It feels like that running game is ready to pop. They've been so close on some explosives in every game this year. But I just, I don't think it happens on Sunday. I think this is going to be a game on Joe Burrow shoulders. I still think Chase goes over the number, but I don't think it's going to be a huge number.

17:36I'm going to go 66. I feel like the Jags are just going to do what they do and make it hard. And maybe you'll see more throws to Chase Brown where he'll still get numbers on check downs. And they'll arrange that, but trying to shove Chase Brown up against this thing. I don't see it working. You know, they've got really good interior play in there that is shut just stuffed up everything that tries to come their way. I'll say, I'll say 48 for Chase Brown. And, but I think he has, he gets closer to that in receiving yards. There's going to be one of my guesses where this one goes. All right, prediction time, Jay. Where does this one land for you? Well, I, we both feel really good about the under in this, but I think you're going to sweat if you bet the under. So I'm going just a tick under. I do think the Bengals find a way to win this game. Being at home is going to matter. Coming off the Pittsburgh loss. They've been, I looked it up. They are about 500 after they lose the Pittsburgh.

18:37I thought maybe Pittsburgh's such an emotional game. They tend to get beat up in those games. Are they really bad the week after Pittsburgh? And it's kind of 50, 50. I think they pull this one out late. Maybe a Joeboro clutch drive in the final eight minutes. 23, 20 to go under the number by one and a half points, but also to cover. You're saying Bengals 23, Jags 20. I'm sorry. Bengals 27, Jags 23. Just under the, just under the number 50 points total. Okay. I look at this one and I feel like this is one where the money you spent and the capital you gave up this off season needs to pay itself off. The D line needs to wreck this game there. Beat up in the secondary. You know what Trevor can do. You know what their offense can look like. If they can have this D line wreck a Jaguar's offensive line that you can get back to the end of the day. This is not like, you know, the world's greatest O line.

19:40They're fine. Okay. But that's I think where the advantage lives for the Bengals. Dexter, particularly outlines some of that and who's the center. But like I think if Dexter correct this game, if you can get some of that pressure, force Trevor into a couple of bad decisions that you take advantage of, that's how the Bengals win this game. I just don't know that they're going to be able to do enough of that. I the Jags are just a really good team. I like how well rounded they are. I like the way that they're playing. The way that they've just jumped out on teams just shows how troublesome they are to plan for and prepare for and they just seem to just be really taken people by surprise. I have the Jaguars win in 24 to 20. To me, that's what the red zone I mentioned that earlier in. How chaotic and disruptive is this Bengals D line? If they're Houston level disruptive, the Bengals win. And they probably win going away. If they are Pittsburgh level disruptive, where it's okay in spots, I think the Jags are going to be too much.

20:42That's the matchup that it comes down to for me. So we'll see how it goes. But I have Jaguar's 24 Bengals 20. And but you know, we're both on either side of the ledger. We're against each other this week. We are. It might be a really interesting coin toss because of what you said about how the Jaguars get out to these fast starts. Maybe if the Bengals win it, they take the ball instead of defer and we've seen them do that in the past. Try to set a tone and maybe that's the route they go to try to go down and get an opening drag touch down and not let the Jaguars play under their typical scheme. Oh my God. I love it when the coin toss is critical. It says, you know, you're in for a good game. We were breaking down the importance of the toss. Who's going to be heads tails? What's the history of this ref flipping? We got to look back. Oh, yeah. Get me some coin toss history. I mean, if there's ever any, you've always been on top of this stuff with the coin toss trends, you're usually, I need to know the history of this particular official in coin toss. I did say interesting and not important.

21:43I just, I just think it's, I'm interested, I'm interested to see if Zach will take the ball if they win the toss. We'll be very interesting to see. It'll be interesting to see all of you guys out here on Thursday at 50 West on Worcester Pike. Please come out. It is just going to be a blast. We love these. It's so much fun to hang out with everybody in a chill, relaxed atmosphere. We'll talk ball. We'll have special guests, special bangles guests, giveaways. There's, there's rumors of something very important in someone's life happening out here on next Thursday as well. It's all all say we got tricks up our sleeve. We got a lot of fun stuff that's going to be playing. I'm very excited for it. We hope to see you in the beer garden leading you right up to the kickoff of cowboys and bucks. And we'll be hanging out here watching that game. So kick it with us. A great way to just spend your Thursday evening. Really, you can spend any time of day here at 50 and you're always going to have a great one. But next Thursday, in particular, we hope to see you there. All right. Thanks, everybody, for watching and for listening and taking in all the content.

22:44Jay and I will talk to you on the walk out after the game on Sunday night. Have a good one.