DraftKings EPL DFS Picks & Strategy: Saturday 3-Game Slate

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1:02before your shopper even starts. So instead of crossing your fingers and hoping for the best, you get groceries picked the way you would pick them. It's a small thing, but it makes a big difference. Download the app and get bananas just how you like with Instacart. Welcome into the Roto Wire soccer show. Discussing Saturday's three game slate over at DraftKings Saturday September 19th. I'm talking Thursday afternoon. So if there's news, I may have missed it. There's news Friday and may have missed it. But roadaware.com slash soccer. To get all year fantasy soccer needs. That is FPL fan track sleeper. DraftKings scandal underdog. Whatever it is. It's over on the site roadaware.com slash soccer. I'll be using a cheat sheet, which is under the paywall. If you're not subscribed, Rw soccer gets you 35% off your first payment.

2:06This is the DraftKings three game cheat sheet. Here we go. And yeah, I think that's it. We got a okay three game slate. We got the big international break coming up after this weekend. We have five games on a Saturday, four games on Sunday, and then one on Friday. But we get the three 10 a.m. Eastern games. We got the 730 and then the 1230 on Saturday. So a pretty varied slate. This one is we're fresh off. You know a couple five game, four game slates over at DraftKings. And now this one is three games and it presents three interesting opportunities here. So check out the odds. We got three favorites that are all between 54% chance to win at 59%. So that's five percentage points that differentiates the three favorites. And one of them is Arsenal who are on the road. Newcastle our home against whole Newcastle fresh off the four one.

3:07Dropping at leads on Monday. Whole they had they still haven't lost a game the Premier League. So shots to them. Second biggest favorite is Arsenal. They are at right and Arsenal rotated a bunch in the mid-a week. EFL Cup game. Brighton. Rotated a lot but not as much as Arsenal. And Everton home against Ipswich Everton. Can't yeah they did play mid week they had some rotation not a ton but I think that game was Wednesday. But looking at the implied goal totals everything's pretty similar. There's just more goals projected in the Newcastle whole city game which. You know you could take that in the number of ways here. Do you believe in this Newcastle attack do you think this Newcastle attack should have you know 0.15. 0.2 higher implied goal total than Arsenal then Everton maybe. Maybe. But yeah, otherwise the implied goal totals are pretty similar 1.8 to 2.2 separates the three favorites.

4:12And then all of the 300 dogs have an implied total above one. So the trusty Arsenal back line this is the probably I assume their highest implied goal total. Allowed for a game this season and it's mainly because of Brighton Brighton. I think I have the highest highest XG of any team this season. But of note for Brighton's XG they have played a lot of. 10 man teams a lot of red cards that went in the other teams direction. I'm just trying to pull up the XG numbers here either way. I guess you can trust me with the XG numbers. Let's get into the line ups here. I think that I don't think we'll see if there's any big changes you know we had EFL copy at your opal league. So maybe some changes in that aspect but for the most part I think ahead of the international break a long international break where. Pretty much every team isn't going to be playing.

5:14Every every national team isn't going to be you know starting the same players for all four games that they have where they saw the German national team put out two different squads for. It's like the first two games of the national break and then the next two games in their national break so. I think we're going to get a lot of that so I none of these guys are going to be. Shouldn't be you know overly tired at this point even though there's been a decent amount of games midweek games. I don't think we're going to get like hey these guys started midweek so we're going to rest all of them for the most part. I don't think we're really going to get that so this new castle lineup big changes would be that new Gonzalez is out with concussion and a more dead itch is out with his injury. I think those are you know the two guys have been starting Fernandez part of starting their last game didn't really look the part. He could start again or it could be Joe willok or it could be for Nene's part of playing on the right wing something like that. Or even on the left harry barns guy think and playing both sides really but yeah they're their last game.

6:19What can we take away from it who knows because maybe not much but in the in the midfield that Jacob Ramsey is also out. So Sean Sturk and move in there at young 18 19 year old Jacob Murphy. This is a guy who could have a split of set pieces but also may only go 60 minutes we saw it against leads. He has some he has plenty of upside but he also has a lot of downside if you get subbed off early and they don't get any corners. That kind of a thing liver mentor moves in the 11 I think for the first time in the league play this season so a lot of we'll get a lot of Lewis Hall corners. What's getting a question about where you can find the set piece depth chart thing here. It's all it's all in every basically every player profile that we have on site you click on a player scroll down and you have the depth chart you have the set piece situation for the team.

7:21So like you can see here I just click Lewis Hall we see he is a left footer and he has a clicky split with Barnes throughout the season. It seems like a weird split but trying to look here Jacob Murphy Lewis Miley. Yeah we may actually have a Lewis Hall and Lewis Miley split a set pieces actually. I think that it will actually be the situation so before I move any further I think Lewis Miley actually has more relevancy than he has had because. Lewis Miley is the right footer we don't have a long a Lewis Hall is a left footer and I want to say Harvey Barnes is also a left footer so Harvey Barnes actually sorry Harvey Barnes is the right footer but we do have a corner from. Lewis Miley in the last game so I guess it could be either. Could be their Miley or Barnes and we're not really positive but we do know Lewis Miley took a corner in the last game when Barnes was on the pitch so.

8:33Right now we're going to say Lewis Miley and Lewis Hall to Lewis are taking corners for Newcastle. Whole I don't think I have any changes in here outside of the concussion to Nobel Mandy on the back line that is the main thing otherwise you know they've had a lot of success so. Why change up what has been working I think the main thing they've been switching up is Matt Crookes was injured for a little bit maybe it's going to be Regan Slater Matt Crookes moving out I know I wrote Boonham is back from his injury that Everton Everton transfer Lonnie whatever it is. He could eventually start for them but probably not in this game Everton I think the big thing will be Hayden Hackney could come in for Harrison Armstrong Harrison Armstrong not 100% that's not the big thing I'm talking about Jack Grayish started and went 70 minutes mid week so we could get. I don't I don't project him to start here mainly because it'd be kind of weird to this guy wasn't 100% fit and he wasn't starting our early games and now we're going to start him twice in the matter of four days.

9:37That usually isn't what's done I was kind of surprised he actually started the NFL cup because once you rather have him start in the Premier League either way I assume that we're going to get Jack Grayish off the bench again if not a prop my guess would be Grayish and Tyrick George but no guarantees because Tyrick George actually went off before Brennan Johnson in last week and game which was a surprise to me. Ipswitch they don't really have too many changes Jack Clark moving to the starting 11 last game for my Ada that's the main thing otherwise if Emerson isn't 100% healthy enough to start we would have Fleming into the starting 11 and this is kind of what the lineup bright and have been using because of their injuries and this is kind of what they're going with I don't think we're going to really see too much probably probably won't be any changes really I know ruders back from his injury but why put rudder into the game. I put ruder into the 11 when like this group has been working well enough together so I don't think that's going to change things up there against Arsenal so maybe they may get a little more defensive but I don't really see it I don't think that's really what hurts there does.

10:47And then for Arsenal I do have your timber in the 11 and I did put Bruno Gremarish into the 11 those are the two changes that we haven't seen this season you know Ben White isn't 100% picked up that injury in the last game or in the past week and then Gremarish has been getting his fitness up so he could actually start in this one so that how much that matters in DFS will see. I guess it could affect timber but let's look at draft Kings and see what we're looking at three games late so it's pretty a little simpler than what we've had with these five gamers and just looking at the players available to us looking at the prices there is just like an obvious at least in cash games there's pretty obvious players that you want to look at that stand out above everyone else at Ford. Yeah at Ford it's kind of you got Saka at 10.2 K Saka's floor has been pretty good this season he's getting a bunch of shots on target he still has a split set pieces even though Arsenal haven't had many corners this season they are what I saw some stat about them being low in XG from corners or whatever the stat is still his three goals I think one of those was a PK but he's getting shots.

12:04He's drawing files he's playing 90 minutes I think that's most important but 10.2 K basically the safest Ford play maybe the safest overall play in the slate definitely a lot for cash games pretty easy to move off of internaments if you know if you look at some of his recent games here take away the goal you're still looking at about 10 or so points but if you're getting 10 points no goals nor Saka that's not going to be worth at 10.2 K especially if you get if there are other are snow goals like habits is 9.7 K so this is 8.1 K otherwise at Ford we still have like a bunch of number nine's without much of a floor tier no berry he look at his numbers now that we know he's going 90 minutes I shouldn't say much of a four because berry is nine shots in the last two games and if he's going 90 minutes he still holds a decent floor here at 6.9 K is he getting what do you want him to be your second forward in cash games it's pretty pricey it's pretty pricey at 6.9 K for tier no berry

13:08below me I would consider in this spot 7.3 K it's not the worst spot against Newcastle we see we seen his upside by I think the downside is like we know he has a split set pieces but all just don't get a ton of set pieces he has six crosses all season which is another downgrade he also has been subbed off early last three games only went 60 minutes in that Chelsea game for whatever reason he had the brace in that game but like his floor just really hasn't been there his best floor game included a game where he had six interceptions just a stat that you can't replicate so 7.3 K those are different situation in hall we're actually consistent getting set pieces maybe they're home against Newcastle maybe more consider it but just not the consistent floor that you want from a split set piece and then he's a good one for the first takeer for Baluomi so I probably would pass on that in cash games and then other as you have to kind of move down all the way to the bottom of this year like Fernando's part O 6.2 K if he starts if he doesn't start we saw him in his first start 58 minutes against leads you know he could have a floor you could play him or he could have another terrible game he could finish with five points and

14:21we're dealing with the mid range here Brennan Johnson 5.4 K Emerson 5.2 K a lot of people played Fato last week he had five files committed set destroyed his floor he's just always going to be a worry again you can play him this week 5.1 K against Everton he could have another 10.4 that's that's possible the worry pretty much every week is like he could get sub at 60 minutes and did what he did last week that is the main reason I went to Anon Cali li shots to him for getting that goal and no one played him so shots to me I guess because no one played my guy Anon Cali li got the goal I think he had 18 19 points for Crystal Palace on that slate last week so I think he was the main reason I was above the cash line in the the big single entry double up but you have another situation it's that's how it's going to be every week of Fato I think that you move down a little bit it's kind of the same questions here Tyrick George

15:23similar players you're getting set pieces you're getting corners with Fato which may you know may push people above Fato over Tyrick George but I think Tyrick George's floor is still good enough you're home against it switch the minutes are still a concern I was really hyped after you got 90 minutes against Manchester United because I was like you know he's going to play opposite it graylish brand Johnson's going to be that man out that wasn't the case last week ended with a 4.4 floor floor I still want I still like him here home against so it's I think that's still enough so my top two floor plays that forward is soccer and Tyrick George on this again if you want projections for draft King Spandle underdog whatever you have the road wire projections you can use them on the optimizer you can also have my projections there's a link in our discord for them road or common slash soccer road or I come slash chat to get into our discord and then rw soccer is 35% off you have any questions about how to use them you can easily download them plug them into the optimizer

16:26it's what I do before these shows to take a look at what the options are but that's pretty much a full that's that's what we got forward that's you know three game slate Arsenal is one of them it's kind of what we're looking at in the midfield again we have the Arsenal players but I think the one player it stands out above the rest at 9k is doosbury hall similar to soccer he his floor is basically been more or less the same as soccer he's getting crosses he's getting shots he gets shots on target is split a set pieces as well home against it switch slightly better matchup than the Arsenal game let's actually look at the odds difference sootsoons doosbury hall is plus 200 to score soccer's plus 220 to score so you could say you could look at the odds and say doosbury hall point per dollar or even in general is the best plan slate home against it switch has pretty much the same floor as as soccer you can also pull up floor only numbers on a road a wire again if you're subscriber are dfs trends pages just look up I think you just google dfs trends road a wire soccer and that page will come up but you can pull that up you can you can there's trend types are standard and floor if you hit floor

17:46he basically can find the floor the average floor points for all these players and the average floor for soccer 14 doosbury hall 12.8 so it's pretty close doosbury hall is basically he's six on this list and soccer second on the list so doosbury hall right up there 9k getting him in one of the best spots of the season this will be a hard fade in tournaments I think because when you get the 10 point floor and you get a possible goal or assist here from doosbury hall that's going to put you in range of like you need this guy to to perform here so doosbury hall 9k I think that's kind of a no brainer this is one of the games where we're not considering pass go girls you can look at him in tournaments maybe I guess if you want in in cash game 7.6k isn't like is most expensive but he's coming off the 40 point or you 7.6k against Coventry use 8.5k against leads and now we're going to play about 7.6k against Arsenal I guess that's fine I think it's a good differential because we know what his upside is we know he takes corners and we know all that but I still think there's better players who are cheaper as we go down the list decklin rice I think decklin rises off the board for me for right now this season until he is I guess he's been doing that so far I think that's the best thing I've ever seen.

19:11I guess he's been really cheap but he's not back to back assist but his floor just really hasn't been there he's been playing a little deeper than prior seasons he's basically been dropping similar when they have the ball he's been kind of operating more as a center back with the ball so it's been dropping a little deeper that kind of hurts his numbers a little bit because for remember last season a lot of his numbers. Zubimendi was next to him so Zubimendi is a little more defensive but now if you throw in Lewis Scally if you throw in Bruno Gomerish guys will probably be a little more forward than decklin rice that's going to hurt decklin rice is overall value so I think that's shown up in the numbers here is for just overall isn't that great. Let me just pull up the DFS trends let's see what his floor has been 6.2 floor on average it's not it's not really good enough for a 6.7 K defensive midfielder I'd say if you're in that range James Garner looks like he's back to 90 minutes 6.4 K home against Ipswich I'd rather play James Garner in decklin rice on this slate.

20:15Diego Gomez home against Arsenal no Brennan Johnson I didn't I kind of went over him and forward but I think he's a perfect tournament play because no one's really going to play him he ended up going 75 minutes with the 9.2 floor in that last game has goals upside of course against Ipswich so I think that's definitely an option Jacob Murphy is a very tricky one for cash games I'm probably going to pass on it just because we don't know. His minute situation we'll see if he actually starts but obviously if he starts again he could go less than 60 minutes and hackney 57 the guy that kind of stood out to me is Julio and see so I think I don't know if it was last week. Yeah it was last week he didn't really do anything last week unfortunately because I talked up about how he had. How he had a lot of shot he had a shot floor and all that ended up doing not too much two shots non-targeting it's crystal palace they an upscoring three goals and sees I wasn't involved in any of them kind of sucked but I still think and see so at 5.5 K in decent matchups is good enough in cash games to wear even without set pieces I think it's fine to be like you know Ipswich.

21:29Yeah I'm going to get I'm still going to get close to a 10.4 from and see so just because he's on the ball like he likes to take shots sometimes it's good enough sometimes it's not good enough as we saw net crystal palace game so not the safest cash play but on a three game slate I think it's fine you could also you could do far to there but I think in see so just more likely for 90 minutes in that situation so it kind of stands out a little more again I'm not really going to talk too much about these bright and play. I don't really want to play bright and it gets arsenal but again good good tournament route there Joe willock if he starts what is minutes going to look like he is 4400 and that's kind of it I don't think anyone I guess Lewis Miley I point out Lewis Miley he could have a split of set pieces no one's going to play it this is kind of a situation of a non collie last week I don't know if you're going to play it. I don't know if anyone else is going to be talking about Lewis Miley but there's a chance here 50 let's call it a 50% chance that Lewis Miley split set pieces with Lewis Hall and I'd say most of the community isn't going to know that we'll see we'll see what it looks like I don't want to speak for for other people out there but in single entry double up let's say the $5 here small $5 we'll say I'm going to project sub 20.

22:5720% for Lewis Miley maybe I'll go sub 10% he's 4k split set pieces home in its home maybe maybe some people will know some because he's 4k and he's home in its home maybe people will find that but and the other part of this is there's a non zero chance of Jack Graylist starts at 3800 he would be very popular if he started I would say even in cash games I think that it would actually be fine to fade Graylist. I know you put yourself at a lot of risk but you're not getting you could get 60 minutes but you're not getting more than 70 minutes from Graylist in the spot so I know it'll be popular but I don't think that like again he's not taking corners so this is like the situation and see so so you're kind of relying on drawing files we know Jack Graylist hasn't open play floor but I'm still saying here that you don't actually need that. Luke is 3500 he does split set pieces for it switch we look at his floor hasn't really been much because he's a different defensive midfielder for a bad team.

24:06It's not really my cup of tea is what I'll say let's look at Regan Slater because I know he splits for whole. You know his numbers are okay 3900 I wouldn't be surprised if people play him you're gonna split corners yes I'm shots. He has some defense stats in him he has three different games this season where he's hit 7.3 floor points. Let's let's look at the difference between Regan Slater. Declan Rice is just above Regan Slater's floor this season so I think that's kind of funny but Regan Slater's 3900 and again Newcastle without Niko Gonzalez in the midfield Sean Stere whoever I think that there's gonna be some opportunities in that game defender here. I think Lewis Hall kind of stands out de Kuiper against Arsenal is gonna be the one one of the only times the season where I'm not gonna be playing de Kuiper given his role but Lewis Hall is 50 700 split set pieces home against whole easy click right there and then stands out because of his price.

25:12Michael linko is only 3400 I know he's not a very good DFS option. He's 3400 he's home against ip switch he's a fullback that's an okay play Ryan Giles is actually had a really good floor this season and he's only 5200 I think Ryan if you have the money I think Ryan Giles is a good play I keep pulling up this DFS transplant. But I'll pull it up again here I and Giles average is 8.3 floor points per game this season so that's what he's doing again not prohibitive at Newcastle 5200 I think that's fine all these Arsenal guys are fine as well. The people who played leaf Davis really killed it last week with the goal and cis but again he doesn't have corners for assuming we get the regular starters he doesn't have corners with this team so again that takes away a lot of his floor. Let's look at leaf Davis's floor this season. Leaf Davis 6.24 so it's not as bad as I thought but at Everton I guess he's a fine play at 4300 not the best play but not the worst play and that's there's so many options like this you're in timber if Ben White's on the bench could technically get.

26:22I don't think he's going to play 90 minutes but maybe you get 70 plus minutes from timber and at that point I think that's fine yeah fullback here for Arsenal. I probably won't go there against Brighton and he's not going 90 minutes I would be surprised to go 90 minutes 3900 so that one's probably where I wouldn't look but otherwise a lot of good looking center backs here you have some break up in here at 3k stuff like that yeah we got a goalkeeper one of the only times the season Raya is going to be sub 5.5k he is 5.4k at Brighton trust that again looking at the odds here none of these teams have a clean cheap percentage above 35% so do you want to spend on a keeper in the spot. As I like to just go to the bottom of the list see what we got. Maybe you just go Newcastle have been struggling to score. Maybe Solakis. It's a good situation for Solakis.

27:23Maybe Sherpin. Everton aren't like a high end scoring team. Sherpin's 3,800 or maybe Arsenal get a bunch of opportunities, but they don't score a bunch for Bruyghans 4K. So there's a lot of pretty good situations here. You can get serious in the last situations or you can get lucky and find eight points from your 3.6K goalkeeper, whatever it may be. But that's what I got for the three games late on Saturday. In terms of these shows, I know underdog is no longer available for me. So I haven't really been paying attention too much to it. I could pull up the cheat sheet here, but if anyone wants anything else in these shows, let me know. I'll throw it on the back end of these draft king shows and kind of go through some things. It won't be like a full 20 minute breakdown of whatever, but maybe I'll go through the other line, the underdog lineups for Saturday, that kind of thing, or maybe in the future I could do a separate show just running through the lineups

28:25for all these teams. Maybe I could do that. I've done that in the past, but it hasn't really gotten enough traction. So again, if you're watching this, make sure to subscribe to this channel. Make sure to give a thumbs up. Hit me up in the discord, hit me up on Twitter about anything else you want in these shows. And I will go over it. It's helpful for people. Go over it. Give some numbers. Give some help to the people. But yeah, otherwise, I'll go really quickly here at the other Saturday game on this underdog slate, not even forest Coventry. Yeah. So good spot for not even forest, Liam Delop got a pretty nice goal last week. Pretty good spot here for Nico Williams and Daniel Munoz. We got the injury to the Lankovitch and Kunia is not 100%. So that's why we have this back line that looks a little different for not even forest, but that also means a guy like Munoz who maybe isn't 100% fit. We'll get 90 minutes. That kind of a thing. So let's stock up for those guys. McAtee Nico Williams's split set piece is a pretty good spot for them.

29:28And I think importantly here, it's that we actually don't have a guarantee of what this Coventry lineup is going to look like because on Wednesday, I think it was Amanda picked up a calf injury midweek and Amanda has started every game for him. And basically they don't really have the depth on their back line to continue doing this look of a 3 4 2 1. They opened in the season 4 2 3 1 didn't really work. So we could see a 4 3 2 1 4 2 3 1 from Coventry again, which would mean like Skyrim right here, Latte, Bo Dreyer is out is out and someone like the 4 2 3 1 could bring you wrenchie in could bring. I don't know if Hammer is actually going to start, but again, we also have Shereef in here. It could be L.S. I'm like, Coventry are in a situation where I want to be suspended and Amanda who started other games are out. So they have these guys who are out.

30:29Pretty difficult situation for them. But I think it's a good spot for 90 and 4. Even with a couple of injuries, I think they're going to get a lot of opportunities. But again, road of wire.com slash soccer. If you're not subscribed again, I was, let me pull up the DFS Trans page before we go because I was referencing that a bunch. So check this out. I know a lot of people aren't too familiar with it. We got a lot of hidden stuff over on the site. So you can use this. This is obviously like this is kind of limited to what we have in here. African Spandaleahu, FPL. I could ask to get underdog in here if there's enough people asking about it. I could probably get underdog into this. But you could see here, this is the DFS Trans page. Just Google, just Google, road of wire, soccer, DFS Trans. And this page will pop up. That's probably the easiest thing I can say. Otherwise it's somewhere, it's somewhere in the list there. You could find it if you really look hard enough. But here's the list here.

31:29This is what I was talking about. You can look at, this is their total points. You can grab these. You can get all games. Obviously, there's only been four games. Once we get later in the season, you can get last five, started, last ten started, etc. The what I was looking at was looking at floor points for these guys. So floor, you can see on this list here. Again, you got to be watching on YouTube here to actually be looking at this because I will post this in a podcast form. But this is what we have. So this is, you can see here, you can sort by average, floor points, minimum, floor points in the game, max floor points in the game. So this light leads 14.6 floor points per game. And this is, this is even per 90, just per game. It's just averaging. You can see the four, the four outputs right here for these guys. So it's just one thing that is, I don't know if anyone else has this kind of thing, but you just, other things you can decipher from this that pop up that you wouldn't really

32:31recognize, just even scrolling through this list. It's like, oh, granite, jacke, actually has been a top floor play this season. Yeah, yes. Alex Scott, same thing, James McAtey. Yeah. So all these guys that even, even like what I was doing, just typing the guys name, whoever I was looking for, Michael Lincol, 5.9 floor points, jiles, 8.3 floor points per game. So that kind of thing, very helpful, not found on the cheat sheet. So a little something extra there. I have no one's ever, if you've never heard of it or never seen it. But that's all I got for this late, roadaware.com slash soccer, RW soccer, 35% off to get the cheat sheets to get the discord roadware.com slash chat and to get the DFS Transpager. Thank you for listening. Let's give a thumbs up. We'll see everyone over there next. Shobber. Family pack sounds serious. 2.99 a pound sounds seriously good.

33:33Fresh chicken tenders are just 2.99 a pound through September 22nd at grocery outlet. Go ahead. Make dinner look easy. Shop smart. Discover more. Stop wasting your nights on a mattress that doesn't get you. Experience the most comfortable mattress in the world. The sleep number smart bed at the touch of a button. You can personalize your comfort. Choose firmer or softer. Adjust cooler to warmer. And right now, save up to $2,500 during our massive Labor Day event. Hurry into your local sleep number store today. As we have your number.