Winner Circle w/JMToWin for Week 4 (FREE PREVIEW)

0:00You're listening to a free preview of winner circle podcasts with J.M. to win to listen to the full shows Subscribe to Inner Circle where you'll also get access to three other premium shows including the slate with Highlow and Xanemir on Saturday afternoons as well as Monday night football showdowns with Xanemir and Mike Johnson's mid-week workshop pod. You can subscribe to Inner Circle at one week season by going to oneweekseason.com and now enjoy your free preview of winner circle with J.M. to win. What is going on OWS fam Inner Circle fam welcome to the week for edition of the winner circle podcast I am your host I am your guest. I am J.M. to win as always through this baby on 1.5 x speed or 2 x speed and let's get started with our weekly look at where my head is at on Saturday. What I'm thinking about as we're getting closer and closer to building obviously been building throughout the week but we kind of get to this point in the week where it's like okay now it's time to stop messing around with things that we're probably not doing now it's time to take all of these things that we've thought about throughout the week and try to focus things down to essentially what I'm always thinking about is what is my main roster and

1:18again this is one more week I talked about this last week but I was going to give it two weeks of playing true single entry so last week that burned me because similar to week one the my main thing I talked about all week was the bears and Panthers game and the viability of a Bryce Young stack but when I came when it came down to it I was unable to pull the trigger on that on my main build and so had a good weekend with my Bryce Young stacks but it was all in my you know I play the 15 high 100 game changer and then about 4,500 in other places and it was all in you know the other places where where I had the Bryce Young stacks I had about maybe 10% 15% of my bankroll that week on Bryce Young and this last week I was you know obsessed with the idea week three obsessed with the idea of the chargers stack and the potential for that to be a game environment where the chargers were take a lot to different side trails here but let me step back actually so last night I've been ever watching something and it was there was somebody who you know have the kind of an extra role in this show but with some lines and they looked like they were reciting lines that they had practiced and when I

2:37fly I don't often do this in NFL season because I actually working on these slides with I'm flying in the off season one thing I'll find myself doing is watching movies or shows that other people are watching so they have their headphones in but I can see their screen and I've noticed that if you're watching shows or movies on mute you can really tell good acting from bad acting you can get this feel of people who are going through something that they've rehearsed and practiced as opposed to somebody who's bringing something to life and that has been the like I described this chargers offense as an offense that looks like they're going through the motions but watching this actress last night where it was like oh my gosh they look like they were reciting lines that they practiced it was I literally paused it not that I be carried paused it and told her like this is what the chargers offense looks like right now they look like and that's the thing that's why last week I had this theory that the charge is offense if they fell behind against the bills would be forced to just sort of play back yard ball but this mic mechanical offense is very detailed it's like I mean Sean McVase offense similar but it's like okay. you're going to be four foot eight inches away from this guy. And like if the split is off by two or

3:42three inches, it changes the dynamic of the play because what this offense understands is the rules of the defense they're facing and exactly how to break those rules in order to have guys open on every play. And so that's why Kyle Shanahan, you can go through Yes Brock party elevates that offense more than any quarterback has since Matt Ryan or Kyle Shanahan has also said since Matt but you also have these excellent seasons throughout Kyle Shanahan's career from quarterbacks who are not excellent quarterbacks. So whether that's Nick Mullins or whether that's Jimmy Carapolo or whoever he had we brought Brian Hoyer with the Browns, like these guys always play above their level in his offense because there are guys open. And so that's what Mike McDaniel is able to do at his best. And my theory this last week was okay, if the charges fall behind, then they will get to this point where they're not able to run this offense where it looks like they are trying to go through the steps of the offense. So you hear Kelsey talk about or Gronk talk about and there's the play on paper and then there's the play on the field. And what both

4:45those guys have said is as long as I know the whole play and the concepts of the whole play, I can freelance within my role because as long as I'm not messing up the spacing or what I'm supposed to be doing for something else or somebody else's role, then I'm good. I can change the route to get open based on what I'm seeing as long as I also know what I can't do to mess up other parts of the play. And the charges are not there yet. The chargers very much look like okay, I have to be standing here and I have to take this number of steps and I have to go here and it all looks very practiced and rehearsed as opposed to looking fluid. And so the idea on Sunday was the chargers fall behind and are forced to play back yard football. And then you're unleashing a borderline elite quarterback in Justin Herbert with weapons and Lad Mcconkey, like athletic weapons and Lad Mcconkey and Aronde Gadson and obviously not the best wide receiver in the world, but an athletic player in Quentin Johnson and potentially able to have this resurgence in offensive success through that.

5:49So game ends up playing out differently. James Cook fumbles on the first drive. The chargers go down and score. The chargers take a lead. The chargers play Harball ball the rest of the way and are literally punting on fourth and shorts throughout the game as if Josh Allen's not going to come back where you know 29 other teams in the NFL would be going for it there and basically understanding okay, the assignment is to continue scoring points because Josh Allen is going to come back. Harball was unable to receive that assignment and so everything fell apart there. And then you know the chargers are down by two scores at the end of the game. Obviously the bills are playing back a little bit on defense, but there was this one drive where you know Herbert's just outside the structure of the offense and he's running around and he's making throws and again the defense wasn't playing tight defense, but the it showed like what my concept of it had been. But anyhow, I didn't want to make the same mistake I made in week one where I was so heavy on this Bears Panthers game and then couldn't pull the trigger on it. And so I this last week was like okay, like the chargers are not the best play on paper, but I keep bringing this up. I'm going to practice this single entry approach. And in this single entry approach, I'm going to go with the chargers

6:51and maybe in a different week, it would have that would have been my you know roster that 10% of the money on it and I would have been on the jets on the other one, but it is what it is. That's kind of part of my process of DFS is trying different things. I talked about this last week of of shifting my style of play. So I'm sort of thinking that starting week five, I'm going to either lean back into MME or take some shots at the 55 million, maybe play nine rosters and the 55 million each week and and then throw in the game changer roster on top of that. So that'd be about 6500. And then I still have my one main roster in the game changer, but then have these millimaker rosters that I'm attacking with and kind of being able to talk through my process of how I'm deciding on nine rosters. But I wanted to set this challenge for myself across weeks three and four of playing single entry and came back to bite me in week three, but we roll with it, move forward into week four. And then we'll see what week five looks like. So for those of you who are maybe new to this podcast, you're listening, you're like, why do I need all that information realistically,

7:51honestly, you don't. The point of this podcast is just for me to sort of talk. And hopefully there are some things that come across as I talk where you're like, oh, I resonate with that. Or you say, yeah, my mind works the same way. And here's how J.M. handled it. Here's what he learned from it. Here's what he did poorly or here's what he did well. Here's something that makes sense to my mind. Here's something that can work for me. Here's how I think through a spot like this versus how J.M. thinks through a spot like this. And so the idea basically is that, you know, this used to be a Tuesday podcast. It was high level DFS strategy and theory. And we wanted to move it to Saturday. Was that last year that we started that in order for you to be able to get my late week roster building thoughts as well, kind of mixed in with all of this. So if this doesn't resonate with you, no worries. Clicked out. There's lots of great Saturday content out there. But if this does resonate with you, I'll kind of keep with this format of continuing to just sort of open up pathways, talk through them. So my idea today is what I want to do is go game by game and just talk through where my head is at toward boiling things down to a main roster, which I think is useful no matter

8:57what style of play we're doing, even if we're milliamaker players. And again, as I'm talking to these, I might hit on things that I would be thinking about in larger field play. But even when I play MME and it was a year and a half, two year stretch, whether that was my primary focus and during that time, it was still I was still wanting to have a main roster that was my main bets. And the way that I would judge that main roster, like what's going to that main roster is who are the players that I'm trying to get on 40% of my MME build or 35% of my MME builds. Okay, those are the players that I'm gravitating toward that I want to get onto my main roster. And so that kind of allows us to or what I'm getting at is like, this is always present in my thinking is this idea of a main roster. And what is what is my tightest core? What do I think are the sharpest plays on the slate of I'm playing high dollar, smaller fields, single entry contests. What am I gravitating towards? So I'm actually going to I was going to go I'm in cascading projections right now and I was going to click game by game in the order that they are listed. But I'm actually going to jump over to

10:01the Jacksonville Cincinnati game first. And what I want to talk about here is actually where my head is at as I head into building is this Joe burrow side of this game where he's 900 more than Trevor Lawrence. And so because of that, in fact, we have burrow projected at 20.5 Trevor Lawrence projected at 20.1. And then there's a $900 difference between the two in salary. And so the tendency here is to think about going toward Trevor Lawrence as opposed to thinking about going toward Joe burrow in this spot. Thanks for listening to this free preview of the winner circle podcast to listen to the full version of this show as well as the slate podcast, Monday night football showdowns with Xandemir and Mike Johnson's workshop. You can subscribe to Inner Circle at one week season by going to oneweekseason.com.