The Bettor Day Football Show 9/17/26

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1:00This is Belie. One network, every topic, everywhere. Looking for these better days. Hello and welcome in to this week's episode of the Better Day Football Show. Alongside AJ Hoffman and two-time winner of the Super Contest. And ninth place finisher last year in Circa Millions. Steve Fesick, I'm Scott Sidenberg. Thanks for tuning in. If you're watching us on the Better Day YouTube channel or you are watching us on the Better Day Twitter page. However you're joining us, thanks for being a part of the show. It is NFL Week Number 2. College Football Week Number 3. And we have plenty to discuss gentlemen, including recent C-Bias Fades. Which is one of my favorite things to do here in the course of an NFL and College Football season. But first off, Fes, we'll start with you. What did you make of Week 1 in the NFL? Certainly a lot of missed tackles, a lot of overs on the totals where traditionally we're used to unders in Week Number 1.

2:01And dogs coming through, not the case this season as the public feasted last week. You know, I'm thinking about these overs. And it was just 13 months ago we were told, well, there's a reason all these games are low scoring. The offenses don't get to jail during preseason. The quarterbacks don't play and that's why the games go under. And now apparently because there's no preseason, the defenders don't get to practice tackling and that's why games get over. I actually think there might be some things going on with the refs. Didn't see a lot of this. A whole lot of pass interference on the defense and defensive holding. I don't think there's so one flag on a kickoff return for holding or a block in the back. Very little offensive holding Scott. What do you think might it might be on to something? You know every year it seems like the league sends out some edicts to its officials, right? We want to focus on passing to appearance this year.

3:01We want to focus on blocks in the back this year. Maybe one thing that was handed down to these officials prior to Week Number 1 was, let's be a little bit lenient here on some of the holding penalties. Or maybe they were told not to call face masks because that's something that we saw also happen in Week Number 1. But AJ, I tweeted this out and this was a tweet from Sean Syed of Sumner Sports, who was talking about the missed tackle rate in Week Number 1. 2026 Week 1 had the fourth highest missed tackle rate of any individual regular season week since 2022. And my response to that tweet was the lack of tackling and training camp limited padded practices and the starters not playing in the preseason is damning to the NFL product. It would that be your reason why we saw such horrific tackling. I'm not even getting to the Denver Broncos, which was historic, but why we saw such horrific tackling across the league here in Week Number 1.

4:01No, I'm sure I'm sure that's part of it. I think Fez was on to something. There was certainly a bias towards offensive players as well, although I did see that the bills, of course, did have a kick called back on them. So worry not, Fez. If I'm, if there's a way to curse me, they will find a way. But no, I think that you're onto something with with that. But I'm a, I don't know if that's something that lasts the whole season. I don't know if that's a one one off thing. And that's, I guess that's kind of the beauty of the NFL is we'll see if that's a new trend. I having taught to Fez this morning, you know, this week is always to me. It's always about what's the appropriate reaction to last week because you know there's going to be over reactions. And I certainly don't want to be over reactive to one week in any way, whether it's a side, whether it's totals, how the, you know, how the leagues going to be created, I think it's, it's one data point.

5:02I'm not ready to just say already, okay, this is the way it's going to go this season. This is what, this is what's happened because of this off season. It's been one week. Like, well, I guess let's, let's see a little more data before we make a sweeping decision. Well, I want to go over some of the week to betting trends that I put out this week up on better day.com. If you didn't read that article, just click on our NFL page. And you can read that article. It is for free for everybody. It is about fading recency bias and says, I want to get your take because running through these trends a lot of the time is you like to say sample size this sample size that or is the market baking in some things already to these trends. So let's talk about just week two in general in the NFL. And all my trends start with 2021. I've explained it a million times. I'll do it really quickly again. New world after COVID first off, but also new NFL starting in 2021. shorter preseason longer regular season a year with the new playoff format as well. So new NFL in 2021.

6:02Overall, underdogs in week two, 44, 30 and four against the spread. That's 59.5% ATS. Before we get into the Owen one teams, one-to-no teams teams that cover teams that didn't cover. Fez, what do you make of just seeing the underdogs success overall in week number two? I think it makes sense. I think the bad teams are approaching it. Bad teams from last year. Hey, we don't want to go through what's what's that in the line in just two. You see that? That's a shark. I've seen those up close and personal. And believe me, if you think I'm going through that hell again, you're wrong. So the idea being my year last year was a disaster. I got a focus in September to turn it around. Whereas a team like the Rams, the Bengals, maybe Bengals, bad example. Team like the Rams, it's like, hey, it's a long season pace, pace yourself and the like. And so the bad teams, I think, give more focus early in the year to try to prevent their town getting shredded.

7:08Before July 4th. Yeah, I think there's something to be said about like the new NFL, like the playoff format and everything because it used to be damning, right? We used to hear that trend all the time. Teams that go, oh, and two, make the playoffs this few times, right? Now I think you have to extend it to week three, right? Because you can go, oh, and two and make the playoffs with an extra wild card team. Now we've seen it. We've seen teams go, oh, and two and win their divisions. So it's not as damning as it used to be. And so maybe you're right. Maybe it's the dogs. It's the bad teams that have more of an emphasis on winning as opposed to the good teams because a good team can bounce back. If the Rams get upset by the giants on Monday night, are people saying the Rams aren't going to make the playoffs because they're own two? No, like they could still bounce back. So let's talk about some Owen one teams. You lose straight up in week number one. Then you're an underdog in week number two. 26, 17 and two against the spread that 60.5%.

8:08How about when they're on the road? Road dogs that are Owen one in week two. 18, seven and one against the spread that is 72 and a half percent since 2021. Four or five teams excuse me qualify for that this week. The Colts, Dolphins, Commanders, Saints and Browns. AJ, can you hold your nose and pull the trigger on any of those road underdogs? Of course he can. He's going to go with the Saints because the Saints don't stink. Yeah. It's a lot harder. You know, a team like the Dolphins and by the way, like the Dolphins are plus 13 and a half asymmetric risk. Who cares if it goes down to 12 and a half. We got to hold out for the 14 on a game like that. You know, and go ahead and invest in them. But I don't think the Colts stink. They stunk last week. Scott, you know, I wanted to talk to you about I actually think the Lions are properly set this week.

9:13The reactions to the week one results are correct with the updated power ratings. But where Vegas gets it wrong is that the situational spot your trends, if you will, aren't neat massive adjustments because an O and one team is so hyper motivated. Because no one, you know, it's okay to go on to, but teams don't know that. So they're going to go all in to avoid the O and two start. AJ, you don't want to start O and two, right? And so you're all in at O and one. Yeah, nobody wants to start O and two. Nobody wants to lose connection in the middle of a live broadcast, but sometimes it happens. Like it's, you know, on my day job, I wake up every morning and we talk a lot about the Dallas Cowboys here in San Antonio. And how suddenly this game, which didn't seem all that important when you brought up the schedule to start the week this week against Dallas, or excuse me, this week against Washington didn't feel all that important.

10:13Now that you start O and one against the Giants and you're facing O and two having lost to the two perceived worst teams in the division. Suddenly, it feels like the whole season is unraveled and your two games into the year. So that man, that's that O and one start really does hit different because it puts a lot of pressure on you week two. And conversely, FES gave out the trend of one and O overvalued favorites. These teams that are one and O and week number one in week number two, they're favored in week two, right? So one and O favorites 18, 25 and three against the spread, failing to cover by 1.8 points per game. And when they're home favorites in week two, 7, 18 and one against the spread, that's 28% failing to cover by four points per game. Perhaps the lines are just inflated based off of week one performances. You are one and O home favorites here in week number two, chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bears and bills in your opinion, FES is the market over rating any of those five teams.

11:20No, but the market is getting the lines wrong. Why? The bears are good. The bears are better than the Vikings. And if they played week seven, you can make the bears of minus four and a half with these quarterbacks. But we all know the bears have been consuming deep dish pizzas and beer all week long, celebrating the 99 points they put up against the Carolina Panthers or whatever it was. That it was a very celebratory week. And like think about the coaching staff also it's kind of our to scream it like your team. All the things they may have done wrong last week and believe me, they did not have a 22 point statistical win. It was just on the scoreboard. It's just human nature. Everyone feels really good about themselves. So the things the bears did wrong are less likely to be corrected than if they had lost the game, you know, not scoring 57 points or whatever was. And they had had lost 31 14.

12:21So qualify in my other system, one of no favorites off a double digit win. And that has been a 68.8% fade trend since 2021. Those teams when their favorites in week number two, six and 11, ATS, Chiefs 49ers, Ravens and bears qualify there. And team is very interesting. And AJ, what's your your take on this? It is when there's been a reversal of opinion on a team from week one to week number two. So that is when a team that covered in week number one as an underdog. But then is now a favorite in week number two. So they were dogs in week number one. They covered now in week number two. They're a favorite. How do those teams do? Well, it's a 72.2% fade since 2021. These teams are just five and 13 against the spread. And that would be the San Francisco 49ers. Do you agree with the 49ers being reevaluated? I mean, they're 13 and a half consensus points here over the dolphins. Is it too much to lay here?

13:30I mean, I don't think I'm looking to to lay two touchdowns in week two of the NFL season really against anybody. I do think the dolphins are the worst team though. If you're going to lay it, they are bad. But but also, I mean, San Francisco, the whole question for them was going to be health. And for the most part, they were pretty healthy. And I don't think anybody went into last week against the Rams going, well, the 49ers just they can't be competitive with the Rams from a personnel standpoint or a coaching standpoint. I just think the biggest concern with San Francisco was that they weren't healthy. I think that they are. And clearly, they made the right call. I know it's of course, it's easy in hindsight to say who made the right call, who made the wrong call on the travel for that Australia spot. And in hindsight, clearly the 49ers handled it better. So I don't know that the full blown narrative has changed on the 49ers as much as, and certainly I don't think the narrative on the 49ers has changed as much as it has on the Rams. I think people are certainly viewing the Rams differently more so than viewing the Niners differently, even though they played each other.

14:38I feel like most people's adjustments and says, I know you keep weekly power ratings. Like, did you adjust the 49ers more or the Rams more after one game? Well, the Rams had miles Garrett get injured. So I lowered the Rams to and a half, but half of that's injury. I raised San Francisco at one point. So yeah, I figured downward adjustment for the Rams and then upward for the Niners. And that kind of tracks based on what we saw. We didn't seem like the 49ers did something spectacular. In fact, there were times watching that game where I was frustrated that the 49ers weren't giving the ball to their best players. It's like they were holding a capri hostage for the first half. So it's I don't, but I did watch that game going man, the Rams looked terrible. Like Matt Stafford looks terrible here. Right. So there were there and miles Garrett looked terrible, although I guess there was some reason why. I think that the 49ers just they played an okay game. They just ran into a team that played a really bad game. So I'd be very careful of over adjusting my opinion of the 49ers. So my new nickname for the 49ers is going to be the zombie insomniacs because they may well like AJ use. They got it right. Well, they got it right for week one.

15:50Right. Now let's see. And part of that is I'm sure they looked at their schedule and they're like, well, we got by weeks weeks, two and three. So we can go all plan for week one. But I think that there will be a hangover from coming home from the Australia late summer, you know, trip there. So I can only look at Miami. But I'm probably going to lose twice a Miami. I'm a better one that goes to plus 14. And then when they get crushed in the first half, Scott, I'll invest in Miami again in the second half. Yeah, there was there was an incredible trend. I think it was evidence of the action network that talked about this. And we've talked about it over the years when it pertains to these teams that come home from the international games without a buy. And the majority of them have been either tied or trailing in the fourth quarter of that subsequent game. I look at the exact numbers here. But I think that you mentioned it like they did the right move maybe for week number one.

16:52But here now we've never seen this. We've never seen a team come from Australia without a buy. And now having to play on a regular schedule, at least the Rams get an extra day because they're playing on Monday. But we've never seen this before. So I think the market has to have a little bit of hesitation here. I get it. The dolphins are terrible. It's the worst roster in the NFL. But it feels like I kind of want to be on the dolphins. You know, listen, I want to ask both the osc. AJ. I'm a firm believer they start putting these games in Greenland and dark to cut China. You know, more and more Afghanistan aren't the two of these info teams just going to call each other the GM's and say, look, we're both just going to fly out there the day before it's a level playing field for both of us. Well, both deal with it. But we're not going to let this ruin our seasons. I think that's a real possibility. What do you guys? What do you think? I think certainly not when it comes to the Rams playing the 49ers teams that are looking for a constant edge against each other. But you're right. I do think if you get a match up between, you know, the Jags who are an AFC South team. You get them playing against a rant. The Arizona Cardinals. You get that game in in Kuwait. I think you're right. Those teams. Those teams will look at it, especially early on as.

18:12I mean, and I think the league may look at this early on or look at this going forward as well that playing these games, these international games in week one. It's a pretty, it's a pretty bad way to start your season. Now, I think you could also make the argument, well, if we're going to have our schedule thrown off at any point, we'd rather it be before we get started than once we get into a rhythm. But also, I think, you know, the 49ers and I think Fez is right about this. The 49ers over the next couple of weeks. It would not shock me at all if they look a lot worse for where after starting the season the way that they did. Yeah, so here's one one comment from Evan Abrams of the action network teams playing on 10 days or rest or less coming off of the international games in the second half. There are only 43% straight up and 43.7% ATS in the second half. So Dolphin second half could be the way to look here in this game.

19:12We're going to get to more of these games. I want to give out some strong leans and some best bets. We can go through our trench report and some better day lines for these games here NFL week number two. Once you guys the comment in our chat if you're watching on YouTube, submit your comments, ask your questions. We'll read them throughout the show. Same thing if you're watching on Twitter at better underscore day. You guys can just comment on the Twitter thread. We will read your comments and your questions here throughout the show. I want to get into tonight's game because people are making their bets here for tonight's game guys. We have seen some movement in the market, the Buffalo bills now up to a consensus 5.5.5 and a half point favorite here. Let's look across all of our boards here. I'm seeing 5.5. We looked at some reduced vigor on the 5.5. So FES would say it's actually 5.37. Or if I got that math completely botched, I just guessed FES. But we're at 5.5 minus 105 is minus 106 is there are some 5 still out there. I tweeted out the numbers of the teams that are coming off of overtime in a Sunday game and then having to play on the road on a Thursday. Traditionally guys this has been a horrific spot.

20:26It's like an auto fade. You fade these teams that are coming off of the overtime games and then having to play on Thursday. Since 2012 these teams are 4 and 13 straight up 5 and 12 against the spread. However, since 2021, while these teams are still 2 and 5 straight up as a bad record, they're 4 and 3 against the spread. So I'm wondering if the historically bad spot is actually built into this line. And maybe if all things were equal, the bills shouldn't be 5.5 points favorites over the Detroit Lions. AJ, you're our resident bills guy. Are the bills 5.5 points better or essentially 4 points better than the Lions and when you take out home field here. I think when you factor in the Lions health situation, it's plausible to get to this number this 5.5 number. The Lions look like they're beat up in the trenches pretty badly.

21:28You have outdoor Jared Goff, which the stats against Jared Goff when he's outside are significantly worse than he's when he's inside on grass. Jared Goff historically has been pretty bad. And then I think you also have the hype spot, the hype spot of the opening the stadium. I don't think anybody's looking to bet against the bills when they open up the brand new stadium that they've been waiting. I think the last 10 years on. But I will say it's getting a little bit pricey, but I feel like probably the number was a little bit short to start to be honest. I feel like, you know, the bills minus 4 was probably a more fair number to start with than 3.5. I guess it was before the game. The adjustment that we've seen I don't think is as extreme as it probably should have been. I think you could at 3.5 I think the bills were a great bet with 4 being I don't not quite a dead number anymore, but certainly not as important of a number, not as key of a number as it was 3 or 4 years ago.

22:30I think it's easier to push through those numbers. So I think 5.5 seems like it's kind of fair to me quite frankly, given the health and all the ex extenuating stuff that's going around with the bills playing their home opener and things like that. What do you think? I mean, based on your power ratings, let's see, you would have here bills 5 and lions 2 you have Buffalo 3 points better on a neutral. You have Buffalo, then if we add 1 and a half for home field minus 4 and a half, do you think the minus 5 and a half is getting away to getting away from us too much. Not at all because the situational spot short week lions off of every time games got to be worth it. Maybe it's worth one on the quarter. I'm at 5.75 then by the way, I believe I did invent the decimal point spread. And then on top of it, these extra injuries, when we think about the cluster injuries on the O-line 3 alignment for Detroit injured 2 safeties, read their corner back injured, what we play, I don't know.

23:33So I think you can push it to 6 to where it would be by the way while I'm going, we're talking about these different point spreads. So the classic example is a game that half the books are dealing to 1 and a half and half are dealing 3 and a game like that I'd say Denver Jacksonville the Lions Denver minus 2.75. So what drives me crazy and I keep hearing this from the media is I hear I make this line 3 flat, I make this line 3 even, I make it a hard 3, I make it a soft 3. What the fuck is anybody talking about? Just say like Green Bay, like jets, don't say I make it a soft 3 and a half. The line right now is 3.35. Well, what the heck does 3.35 means? It means that at most places have 3 and a half, but if you're betting the packers at some places, you get a bargain on the big and if you're betting the jets plus 3 and a half, you're not able to get that and an attractive big, you got to pay more than minus 110.

24:37So clearly the line's not 3.5, it's more like 3.3 or 3.4. Our better day line right now has Buffalo minus 4.45 with a consensus obviously of a Buffalo minus 5 and a half. So we're a little bit off at least with the lines here. We did track if you look at our market report and this is available for all better day insider and premium members earlier this week tracking some of the the caushey markets, there was a $44,000 execution on Buffalo minus 4.5. So that's strong. I mean over the last 30 minutes right now the largest has been 39K on a Buffalo money line, but just taking a look at the volume we're over 2 or 2.9 million on caushey since it opened here and we did track a large investment on Buffalo minus 4.5 earlier this week, which to me is more telling because the majority of these most traded strikes are going to be money lines on these PMs.

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26:374 till verse Romero watch it live only on the zone. Sign up now at the zone.com. You've waited all season for this one. Now it's time to make every NFL week. Camping as Fandall is making this your most rewarding season ever whether you're backing your favorite team building a same game parlay, betting player props or making your picks on the biggest matchups of the week. Fandall has more ways to play all season long and for the new customers it gets even better get $350 in bonus bets guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for seven days. That's right that $5 each day and get $50 in bonus bets for every day for seven days. So from Thursday to Sunday and Monday night, there's always another chance to make your picks. And then you can see the next one is at fandall.com slash believe to get started that's BLE AV make this your most rewarding season ever with fandall 21 plus select states for Kansas and affiliation with the Kansas star casino 18 plus DC Wyoming first online real money wager only minimum $5 wager for seven consecutive days.

27:43And then you can see the next one is at fandall.com. It was a non-wadrable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler 1 800 my reset call 1 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut visit MD gambling help dot org in Maryland visit gambling help line M a dot org call 1 800 3 2 750 8 hope and why text hope and why in New York call 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 7 8 67 Louisiana. As far as the total is concerned guys. FES we have a question here from FGM 3 does Detroit's online injuries cause more of a conservative game plan including less fourth down tries. Should we be looking towards the under now for disclosure I did play it under I played under 55 here for tonight already. So great question Scott I like your bet and I absolutely hate your bet why you tell me.

28:48Because you think that by the time we get to post here I might be able to get a 55 and a half. How much money would you be willing to wager that you aren't going to get at at a minimum under 55 and a half minus 110. I mean there's the it's a lot great I mean you might do better end team totals first haves it's a standalone game we always talk about that and what happens with standalone games people like betting over so never bet a Thursday night. I believe today's Thursday I'm not certain a Sunday night or a Monday night game to go over until close to post the only exception I would say let's say like right now there's a there are 55 and a half so a couple joints in Vegas. Let's say that that total in the sharp world suddenly dropped the 54 then I would panic correctly and play under 55 and have to answer the gentleman's question I think he's directly correct we should play under I don't agree at all that Dan Campbell is going to say we got three lineman out you're going to have to bite your kneecaps and putt and play some defense Detroit knows their path the victory here is ultra aggression and Campbell is a huge gambler so that's bad for the under if he gets fourth and four from midfield.

30:02They're going for it boys they're not punting. AJ talk to me about some player props here tonight. You know having you follow the Buffalo bills closely James Cook in week number one against the Texans was pretty stifled 13 carries for 57 yards wasn't really involved in the passing game at all. Do you think that kind of reverses itself here against the lions do we expect a big performance from James Cook tonight. I think it depends on if you think the bills are going to be playing in a positive game script I think in a neutral game script the bills tend to pass the football and that's that's their fallback and they were in neutral at best for most of the game against the Texans. I think you'll see James Cook more if they're if they get out to any kind of a real lead. I'm not looking to invest in James Cook though right now I would say you probably are getting a little bit of value a guy who had a bad game last week. You got to remember they they went against what was perceived to be the best defense in the world last week in this tactics.

31:04They end up making them look bad and now you can ask questions while are the Texans is the Texans defense that good in the valid question. But to me what I noticed most about this game is the personnel that Joe Brady uses is so different than what we were seeing last year and they were seeing a lot more three wide receiver sets out there. I mean the bills have historically been one of the more heavy tight in teams you know more tight in the receivers on the field pretty much all the time the last several years. That wasn't the case over the weekend on Sunday we saw Dawson Knox but a lot of the time you saw Dawson Knox lighting up as a wide receiver and it wasn't underneath stuff they were going down the field to Dawson Knox going down the field to DJ more and it helps that they finally got a number one receiver that's kind of unlocked some things. But I think that you're going to see Josh put up some big numbers. At least early in the season until teams are able to adjust a little bit I think more continues to be like kind of the real reason why this is all getting unlocked because it helps to have that that go to guy.

32:06But I think Dawson Dawson to Dalton can K is going to be the most beneficial the biggest beneficiary of it early on because teams adjust to this new look of the bills putting out more wide receivers than tight ends. I think in cage like he's a guy who you if you have to cover him with a linebacker you're in real trouble and the Texans spent a lot of last week trying to cover him with a linebacker and it had very minimal success if the Texans can't cover you with linebackers the lions are certainly not going to be able to. Scott get ready to find me multiple times so I played can Kate over 50 and a half yards it's already up to 53 and a half I played DJ more over 59 and a half it's up to 63 and a half another fine. Past post and you know in terms of the running backs and the total is 55 there's going to be lots of yardage here I made four bets so I bet cook over 78 and a half rush yards because I think he's going to cook in the second half if Buffalo gets the lead I played Gibbs under 88 because with three lineman down and Detroit likely trailing due to get 55 in the first half and not get there.

33:18But on a prop bet this is a draft Kings and I love these bets I bet Gibbs to win the race to 20 plus money amazingly and Gibbs to win the race to 40 minus 130 because I do think at halftime Gibbs will be leading you know and get more usage and carries and then the game script will flip to where oh that's right Buffalo our running back is the cook is really good we didn't get any yardage. Last year let's give him some carries what do you think I like the under on Gibbs I would say under on rushing yes maybe over on receiving just because you know his snap count is so high he's the only guy there now without Montgomery he played 53 snaps in week number one second only to Ramandre Stevenson of the Nguyenland Patriots so he's going to be on the field the entire game I could see him getting involved in the passing game here so I'm going to be able to see the game. I do like the under rushing yards but maybe as a correlation it's under rushing but over receiving for Gibbs well and also remember in week one the game script for Detroit up until the you know about midway through the fourth quarter was extremely positive they had a huge lead so they were feeding feeding I have a hard time and I mean obviously we're all talking about the point spread here and I think we all are at least leaning towards Buffalo on the point spread I know

34:45that's what I think is going to be the best and I are I have a hard time picturing a world where the bills are chasing the lions in the fourth quarter yeah so I think you know if Fez is is directionally right that if you if you want any positive on Gibbs it's got to be early if you want full game I think it's it's probably not my my favorite way to bet him. I'm not going to be a good player for Fez is that he's trying to kind of threaten needle you know if you if you're the first guy to 40 but you're saying he's going to get there you'll be the first one to get the 40 but under 55 and a half that's that or you know any kind of under really that's a tough needle to thread well I'm not this isn't a needle this is a middle I could drive a right you're right I just need I just need him to get the 20 and 40 before cooks he can still you know go on is he's 88 and a half I mean that's a that's a big difference well and before Josh Allen who you know Josh Allen in in games that they are you know unless they're chasing Josh Allen runs a lot more in the first half than in the second half when they're behind Josh Allen it's a it's a two way the rush to 40 is a two way prop who Josh Allen can run for a hundred yards and he wouldn't be a part

35:53of it okay well then I I stand corrected on that all right so there you go so we have our little prop preview here of Thursday night football tonight between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills our trench report does give a slight edge to the Lions but we have the factor in the injuries also this is only week one data and I specify this up online you'll see a giant flag on the app and on the site it says ratings are based on only one week of play okay so take it with a grain of salt I do not think the Raiders will be the number one trench team in the NFL for the entirety of the season but thanks to playing the Miami dolphins they can really look really good taking a look at the rest of this week guys a couple of bets that we've already talked about that we really like this week Minnesota Vikings against the Bears we talked about maybe the Bears being a little bit overvalued the number on the Vikings is now four and a half a plus four and a half obviously the quarterback situation is something to monitor with a lot of these teams around the NFL but AJ why do you like the Minnesota Vikings so much here this

36:58week well the quarterback thing being something to monitor I think we saw it last week I don't think the Vikings are worse off with Carson wins than they are with Carson wins has been a guy who's who's been in the system for a little while and I think there was a real competition between the two JJ McCarthy was quickly eliminated from that competition and I think that they went with Kyle Murray because they thought the upside was a little bit higher with him but I would say the floor with with Carson wins is probably better than it is with with any of the quarterbacks that they have Carson look really good last week and I think that you know they kept them around for a reason they they trust him and and that coaching staff if he tells me he likes a quarterback I like that quarterback the other thing is you know the the way to disrupt Caleb Williams historically is to blitz him to put pressure on him and that has worked for Brian Flores and Brian Flores when he is blitz Caleb Williams has had a lot of success one in three in his career Caleb Williams is against these these

37:58Flores lead defenses of the Vikings and you know it's it's short sample size but the when Caleb Williams is under pressure he becomes sort of a pumpkin and I think that you may see a little bit at this weekend I think everyone wants to who wouldn't want to bet on this this bears offense after what we saw in week one I just think that trying to compare you know Carolina and and they're they're coaching their their personnel to Minnesota and what they're working with on defense I think is apples to oranges and I think you're going to have a more potent offense coming back as well I just think that the the Vikings didn't get as enough credit for that win in most teams if they win with a backup quarterback for most of the game we're in love with it for for what a reason now it's like oh no they how can they this isn't like Sam Darnold to drew lock you know this isn't like a easily identifiable drop off from starting quarterback to back up I think here there's there's a there's a gray area that where there's a world where Carson Wentz might be the better option for the Minnesota Vikings so I'm not going to penalize them for it and if I'm not going to do that I think

39:03Minnesota might be underrated here well we saw interesting Tyler was a limited participant yesterday so he's going through that can push them protocols nobody comes back after week one no I mean it's just it just doesn't happen yeah we time and again in the NFL guys especially quarterbacks they're going to and especially a guy like Tyler Murray who has a ton of history that says he's going to get hurt there's no point in rushing him back I was about to yell at AJ and I was like are the Minnesota Vikings stupid why would they be paying Murray so much more money than they're paying Carson Wentz if they really thought that Wentz was as good but in actuality they are paying Wentz more Wentz is getting paid three million dollars and Tyler Murray is only He's getting paid a lot of them not by not by Minnesota but Minnesota is only paying him 1.5 million so from that perspective think about this the narrative is oh Tyler Murray is like a top 15 quarterback well bullshit if he was somebody else is the NFL stupid the NFL would

40:04some other team would have gone on and paid him three million a year or whatever and so Certainly with Tyler Murray and by the way that wasn't just a normal concussion I was concerned What's the movie where like the helmet flies off and the guy's big the guy's The notch that I hope his head's not still in it that was as vicious a hit as you will ever see So I agree with AJ now if I got Kyler Murray that just got got like annihilated versus Wentz who suddenly looks healthy for the first time in a while I absolutely I think Wentz might be the better choice by the way I just bet the Vikings plus Five the beauty of being in Vegas live show. So if I missed anything Scott said it was because I was popping in my bed No, I love it. We're already in on the Minnesota Vikings I will say about Brian Flores is that last year you know Caleb Williams is so worried about the the the blitz right and he even called Brian Flores He's the king of covers zero right one week one last year Brian Flores did not blitz Caleb Williams

41:08And that's something that we saw in 2024 actually as well is that he kind of dared him to beat him He said all right, you think we're gonna blitz you we're gonna drop back We're gonna disguise our coverage and let you think in dunkel game and that was the game week one last year We gave out an anti correlated same game parlay and cashed it on Caleb Williams over receptions But under passing yards and in fact he went under passing yards in both games against the Minnesota Vikings last year Flores did blitz more in the second game than in the first game, but it's all mind games here I think Flores has Caleb Williams's number and wouldn't be surprised at the Vikings not just keep it close But potentially went out right there in Minnesota Let's talk about some other games here Packers are at the New York Jets and green bay is now laying north of a field goal Fez we're looking at the market here Consensus is three and a half We have green bay minus three point seven four on our better day line You know the numbers Matt LaFlor always covers in week number two The Packers who you know

42:10When they took points off the board They didn't score again Against the Minnesota Vikings they had a chance to go up, you know by you know eight points and they took points off the board In order to go for it on fourth down and did not get it I don't think LaFlor is going to make that mistake again here against the New York Jets What do you think about Packers and Jets? I'll just stop with the mistake. It wasn't a mistake. I mean, it's like these field goal kickers can make kicks from 60 yards. So If you if you have fourth and one from the other the opponents 20 Scott do you kick a field goal already go for it But as they already made the field goal that was the point everyone makes the field goal. It's like a lock It's like 96 percent. I don't I don't take points off the board you the field of course good The field goal was good. You went up eight They took the points off the board and they didn't get it on board. No, this is this is important Minnesota scored on answer points stop Let me make let me make the case Obviously you do take points off the board if you kick the field goal from the five yard from from the four yard line

43:13Um, let's make it the three if you kick the field goal from the three yard line And there was a offside and now the balls at the one and a half do you take points off the board? Did you go for it fourth and go from the one and a half? No, you go for it on fourth and go from the one and a half that So you do take points off the board selectively, but I hear what you're saying if you kicked a 30 yard field if you kicked a 45-year-old field goal I would agree I would tend to just be happy with the three points and maybe we're somewhere closer to in between But I'm just so pro going for it fourth and one but you're right because you're on the 20 and you could miss the field Okay, you talk to me into it. It's fine, but you do take it off the board sometimes Listen if I have a chance to go up eight points in the fourth quarter. I'm going to do it So when you also you already made you already made the field goal You know what that means? That means that the worst case scenario right now there the worst case scenario with 13 minutes left in the game the worst possible thing that could happen Is you get the football in a tie game? I just need your situation. Scott. I need jerks because you said never take points off the board

44:17Which is just wrong on every level. So that's I overreacted in this case In this case, I agree that's fine not to have taken points off the board um Like I said, I made this line 3.38 which means like there is no reason you would ever think about playing the jets right now Because you might get minus three. I mean that this line was higher. It's been drifting It's kind of like A playing out of gas Drifting and on a glide path towards three, right? And so I I think this actually will go to three and then it'll come back teams do love alone one teams You know pros love betting on them But I think every pro in the world is waiting for minus three minus one ten that likes the packers And they're not going to settle for anything less than that I mentioned LaFloor's record here in week number two He is let's see I just had it here LaFloor is five and oh eight yes Since the start of the 2021 season in week number two

45:19of the NFL season AJ like packers over the get over the jets or were you impressed by what gino smith did in week number one? I was I mean, I was impressed with the jets. I guess it's all relative You know, they they played against a team that I'm I'm really really down on I'm really not sure why the jets were were underdogs, but um I will say that I am more down on the packers than I thought I would be too I thought they really kind of gave a game away And if teams can give games away like that That's not a team I'm looking to lay points with so sure And I do think I think the jets are probably just better than I thought they were you know the jets The jets gino smith is what he is and he is Not real good and we saw that last year with the Raiders. He's just not he's not a good NFL quarterback But the rest of their roster is is still pretty solid and they added some talent this year that makes them somewhat Serious, I guess by jet standards they should be taking somewhat seriously

46:20You know, I think that We've just lived in a world where the last five years the jets have been like an automatic This is a joke of a team and I think there's a world this year where the jets aren't a complete joke. So we have to start treating them like a You know a C-tier team instead of a D tier team. I think that's probably the best way to put it. So I think there is actually a little bit of value on the jets this week before we transition to college football Fez the have any final thoughts on the NFL slate any Official bets that you want to give out here that you already played this week for the NFL Well my official bets are at sicpix.com. That's the only place I give out my bets Officially, I don't have a website that's not me don't buy from Steve Fezick fraud.com or whatever you're you're seeing me at I will run down the All every team that lost by double digits. I would look to bet on Or probably pass the exception is the Packers. I did bet the jets earlier in the week

47:22But I was I got a better number at plus four. The other teams would be Carolina Cleveland Tennessee Chargers Denver Miami Indianapolis I'm very price sensitive to key numbers. So obviously I want plus seven on the colts plus 14 on the dolphins minus two and a half on Denver you're drinking out of a fire hose here I'm gonna pass on the Chargers. I think it's a home game for the Raiders And I'd love to get plus seven half on the Titans Mike God though AJ they stink Yeah, it's really hard the tie and I find the Browns in that same category until you see But NFL level quarterback play from those franchises. It's really hard to invest in even as Dawson And I'm not sure this might be Dishon's last game as a starter for Cleveland The Titans are in a much worse situation because they're stuck with cam ward. They have to make cam ward work At least with the Browns. They've got some some opt now that they're not good alternatives You know going to Shedore or and I don't know that they even go to Shedore if they were to bench Watson, but

48:25They're in a bad spot with quarterback and if you if you've if you've got that bad of quarterback play like the Browns and the Titans have right now Even with great numbers. I have a hard time wanting to to invest in you and Those two teams right now fall into that category for me For me my official stuff. I like the bills tonight. I like the Vikings The Vikings as you you could see some fives out there now I think that's the that's my favorite play on the board and I actually like the Rams I think the Rams if if as you correct me if I'm wrong If a week ago I had told you the Rams at home would be seven point favorites over the giants I feel like that's a that's a bet that we would have been running to make and You know and you could say well miles Garrett well miles Garrett had never played a game for the Rams before and yeah Like the Rams defense was pretty damn good last year without miles Garrett Would it have been nice to have him sure would have been nice to have Aaron Donald sure But the Rams were looked at like they're they're this unstoppable force and then they got stopped and suddenly were

49:26Like out on them there. I mean there were people out there who were seriously talking about the Rams going like 15 and 2 16 and 1 they lose one game and now we're saying oh well Are they really going to be able to get margin against the New York Giants who played against What was the the most poverty defense in the league last year in Dallas and all of a sudden where everybody's in on the Giants And the style that the Giants played with the the Cowboys do seems susceptible to sort of that heavy personnel and trying to just run straight at them I don't think that works against the Rams. So I think the the Giants are gonna have to put more on the arm of Jackson Dark this week and I can't picture the the Rams offense Looking as bad as it did in week one so and and when you think about all this the travel and the the situational stuff for the Rams that was going against the Rams in week one and getting an extra day of rest. I think it's big I like the Rams Anything seven or better against the Giants Well, the travel's still going against them because they got to come home But I'm not nearly as bad as the Niners. I agree. I did tease the Rams my seven to my one and also the West Coast team as an edge

50:30Normally because they're playing with with the perfect body It's too late for the Giants body clock time wise But since the Giants got to play in the a night game last week. It really doesn't matter um yeah But but I think I think it's a good teaser by the way if you play at teasers NFL you need six points Minus 120 don't lay more than minus 120 and tie is half to be a refund not tie is lose I think Rams minus one is indeed a good tease I want to ask both of you because there's two things I can't I don't want the answer this If you're watching the New York Giants they fumbled a lot during the game and they recovered their fumbles But they were trying to fumble their their receivers. It's got to be coaching They're like holding I know apartments. They're trying so hard and that came to beat the Cowboys But they're holding the ball away from their body You know just just vulnerable to the fumble and I see this every week in the NFL why Don't receivers watch the ball when they catch it like like like you I watch Waddle drop a ball and literally his head is turned 90 degrees and he drops an easy catch

51:32It's got to just be coaching. It's like every time I see a guy drop a punt or drop a pass right to him He never has his his hands his eyes on the ball And and the Nano second you pick up on buying able to glimpse in terms of who's coming at you is so unimportant compared to actually making the reception Why isn't there better coaching to get these players to do it correctly guys? You would think that Harbaugh would be that coach that would emphasize ball security And I think that that's something that we should look at moving forward I mean one of the things that I thought of immediately when Tyrone Tracy fumbled was He's not going to play go out there and live bet a scatabo over scatabo over carries because Tyrone Tracy Is not going to see the field again after he fumbled there and that could be something to look at moving forward Especially when you have a coach like like a Harbaugh who is one of these traditional hard-nosed guys A player fumbles like that they ain't coming back on the field. So that's a great life betting opportunity Let's also and fes to your point that that giants Cowboys game There was a lot of drops on the other side too CD Lam and and George Pickens both dropped wide open wide open passes

52:38You know last year were were instant first downs like game changing plays that they just weren't able to hold on to And part of that is I think Going back to what we talked about early on these guys didn't play in the preseason You've got a bunch of guys taking their first live bullets in in several months There's going to be some rust there So you assume that that sort of comes off a little as the season goes on But yeah, that's been it was a problem early on in in week one for just about everybody honestly But if they just watched the damn pass into their hands in practice A hundred times you why in the game when you turn your head it doesn't make any sense to me I guess big maybe maybe you would argue while they haven't gotten their bell wrong and their little concerns about getting passed I think you you get used to you know you're obvious in the NFL your your job is to be a playmaker and you assume and it's not I'm not saying it's it's right or they they would certainly not be coached to assume that the catch is just a given They're looking to get their head turned up field and try to make as much happen as they can sure when you're playing

53:38Yeah at this speed and at this level you you sometimes try to take the Take some things for granted and I think maybe they're taking things for granted And especially this early in the season you can't take for granted You got you're right you got to catch the ball first and it's it's easy to say that But if you sit there and watch it and then you turn and make your move now you've lost that split second and a defenders on you and now you've got A six yard gain instead of potentially a 12 yard gain. So I understand them trying to cheat the margins That's what it's just like you fighting for a half point fes. Yeah, like sometimes you Yeah, but you can never Puka never drops the ball Cooper cup never drops the ball ad mcconkey never drops the ball Why and you watch every one of their catches? You know what and they these guys get plenty of yak after catch because it literally is a point one of a second It really doesn't matter Very mad. Yeah, it could matter. You're right. I almost think why not sneak a peak Half a second before and then bring your eyes back, you know to you know to actually catch them ball No, we're gonna have to break out the jugs machine

54:39We'll go out to the park and we'll see if as can turn his head or the fraction of a second before that ball is coming to I have good news Scott. Yeah, I have good news because everyone says I'm like I'm a negative Nelly Kansas City did something they're running back that nobody does and I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it He's going to the he it's unclear whether it's gonna get the first down and you know how the players like die for the Pylon the endzone so they can fumble out of the endzone and turn the ball over and it's so stupid like a second down But this player doe for the first down marker which is so smart every running back should do that every Scatabo type player should always reach the ball out towards the sideline Because the fumble out of bound doesn't hurt you if you get smashed the ball just goes out of bounds It's a bit like go of it. Yeah, why not get an extra yard by doing that All right, let's quickly talk some college football here the big story of course LSU taking on Ole Miss and a surprise note on the injury report yesterday as lSU listed quarterback Sam Levitt as

55:42doubtful and the market Did not react well reacted slightly? I should say LSU is still a two and a half point favorite over Ole Miss a j Does anybody believe that Sam Levitt is not going to play here for lSU or is this classic lane? Not just trolling Ole Miss, but sticking it to the scc After all the fines and everything that they've had to deal with with the NFL players and things like that Well, let's be honest if this wasn't Lane kiffin. Let's say this was You know Some other random coach who who made this call Would would we believe him? I think yeah, I think because it's Lane kiffin He's got a reputation that precedes himself to where we say why wouldn't Sam Levitt play? There's been no indication that he was he was hurt last week He finished the game last week and of course with everything that's been going on I think this is gamesmanship by Lane But I also think the fact that the market didn't really react to it is pretty telling It's just that you know, nobody believes this and I don't believe it

56:42I think that lSU will be out there at full strength. I just I've seen no reason why they wouldn't be so I my investments been made on lSU. I like lSU here. I think that they just have too much talent I think it's it's gonna or I think obviously now they have a huge coaching edge I know this is like this is going this is the biggest game for for Mississippi They're all pumped up. They want to they want to put you know get this revenge on their coach that left them and took a bunch of coaches But the truth is He left them took a bunch of their best players took a bunch of their coaches and he has better players than he had when he was it It'll miss this is just a better situation for him. I think this is a This is a good spot for lSU. I think they're going to kind of rain on the parade there for Ole Miss You know, that's interesting I think it's a bad spot for lSU, but I agree with your conclusion. I just think lSU is way better So yeah, so I don't like the spot for them, but I just think they're I bet lSU because Just the superiority. What do you think?

57:43No, I mean, that's what I'm saying. I think the talent that they took when in the overall talent that they have You've got a coach now who is obviously the the better coach because he's the coach that everybody wanted to keep He was the pretty girl LSU got him and now he's got better players than he had at Ole Miss. Why shouldn't they be The much better team? I'm I get what you're saying, peasant. I think I'm saying the same thing is The I shouldn't have said the spot the number just doesn't seem right to me given the talent discrepancy between these two teams now If levit doesn't play Well, okay, we've got a conversation, but again, I just I don't have enough faith in I have I have faith in linkipin when it comes to coaching football. That's about it. I don't leave any work that he says By the way new feature up on betterday.com for all you insider and premium members on our and we on our NF and CAAF Our college football HQ right not only do we have the trench report for every game But now on our schedule view a full matchup breakdown of every single game with all your statistical categories that you want to see

58:51Just click on the matchup tab. You'll see the analysis is right there who has got the edge in some of the biggest things And then you can compare each team's offense to the defense. You'll see the rankings For example LSU on defense number one in EPA per plate Right now, but again, that's only off of a couple of games so far this season Their number one in success rate number one in explosiveness number one in points per opportunity allowed So good edges on that side of the ball there for LSU versus Ole Miss So for every single game and each matchup page directly links you to the trench report for each game Where we currently have LSU with an edge over Ole Miss in the trenches So go to our schedule view on the NCAA F tab the college football tab our college football HQ You get a full matchup analysis on every single game Let's talk about a big one coming up tomorrow guys Houston at Texas Tech where we have a consensus Texas Tech now minus eight On in the market and looking at our matchup analysis

59:54We have five big edges in this game comparing the teams Texas Tech with four of those big edges Houston with just one De-Huston only edge that they have is their run game But again, we're only going off of this year's data so far, but we're seeing Some some edges across the board here for Texas Tech and in the trench report which blends some of last year's numbers as well Texas Tech with an advantage with the strongest unit being their pass blocking and their pass rush So getting after the quarterback and protecting their quarterback AJ what's your handicap here on Houston versus Texas Tech That I think Texas Tech is overrated vastly overrated here And I think that we're thinking that this was the same Texas Tech team that went to the playoff a year ago And I'm pretty sure it was not they last last week against Oregon State They they made Braden Atkinson look like he was Joe Montana That it was absurd what Oregon State was able to do through the arrogance this team

1:00:55In a year ago Braden Atkinson won the gun the ball off like the defense was so good for Texas Tech I think we're letting what Texas Tech did a year ago Just assume that that was going to roll over but in this era where there's there's NIL and these guys who are already off to the draft and Transfer portal and things like that. We just assume oh well. They've got money. They're gonna get the next guy in next man up And it'll be no problem I don't think that's a case having watched this Texas Tech team. I don't think they're on that level I think this is a A pretty heavily mismatched or mis misplaced number I've got this on the other side of seven So Houston for me is one of my favorite plays this weekend I think Houston should be less than or less than a touchdown dog here And now the market's going the other way getting eight. I think that there's real value on the coogs You know, it's interesting. I was looking up some numbers here about how Favorites in week three do after they didn't cover in both week one and in week two as favorites like Texas Tech didn't and And you know, I always do my trends from 2021

1:01:57But because college football has changed in the last like two seasons or so with NIL I shortened this search to 2024. So just 2024 and 2025 Those favorites in week three that didn't cover as a favorite in week one or as a favorite in week number two There's seven and twelve eighties in week number three So maybe there is something to age at your point about the NIL era changing college football with the talent Transreportal and things like that maybe Texas Tech is a little bit overpriced here Although as they are wearing really cool jerseys tomorrow night sponsored by Patrick Monk's The only thing I care about with the cool jerseys is if they match the Camouflage of the field so if you can wear blue on a blue turk or a purgain You can wear green on a green turk I really think the quarterback might have trouble seeing the secondary as well And that you do have an advantage. That's why I think boysy as the biggest edge in college football Hey, you know, I work with Dan the stat man. I've been work with him for years He makes this game three and a half he doesn't care

1:02:59About these pre high preseason hype and everything else his model is very heavily dependent He carries some priors for a while with the percentages But he's like if you if you had just random teams no uniforms And you just looked at the two two two games these teams have played Texas Tech stinks and Houston's gonna win So yeah, the final score was not indicative of that game last week against Oregon State or I mean Oregon State had a fourth quarter lead Halfway through the fourth quarter. They had a lead on Texas Tech It was not a it was a really bad performance and that was a week after they struggled to get separation from Aveline Christian So I've got real concerns that Texas Tech is even good much less a you know a playoff caliber team And I think right now they're still being priced like the playoff caliber team. They were a year ago Let's talk about Miami Laying 20 and a half Going up against Wake Forest on the road now, you know Winston Salem is gonna be lit as they say on a Friday night Miami they do finish their drives early on here in the season their fourth and points per scoring opportunity

1:04:03Their past protection is absolutely elite third and havoc allowed second in sack rate allowed But we're only grading them against one FBS opponent. I'm not looking at the Florida A&M game off of that So it is a very thin sample size Darian Mensa same thing. He's been great to start the season But again small sample size Ken Wake Forest get after the quarterback that's gonna be the thing wake forest has had Success rushing the passer early on this season and they've played better opponents than Miami has played in the first couple of games here undefeated. I mean two and a half two and a whatever, but I feel like three touchdowns AJ is a lot to lay here on the road especially when you consider this Wake Forest played Darian Mensa last year, okay? The coaches studied Darian Mensa last year when he was at Duke, okay If there's any edge on one side of the football here with coaching It might be the coaching staff that already scouted the quarterback and has a game film on him from the way they played him last year

1:05:10I don't know if I'll get a 21 maybe I shop around and see if I can get a 21 I like taking the points you worth wake forest on Friday night Yeah, uh, I'm I'm not sure I'm looking to get in the way of the freight train It's Miami. They've maybe been the most impressive team so far. Uh, they take out the Florida a&m game take out the Florida a&m a&m game we can't judge them again in that performance because you and I can probably put up 70 against Florida a&m But let's also remember wait no, I watched that game I got a chime in because it's rare and I watched the whole game and Miami had all these plays were the Florida a&m guy the corner was like beaten by a step-and-a-half and It was a 30 yard pass downfield flag pattern post pattern and Miami completed every one of them I mean, I don't care if the defender felt down It was just so impressive to me. I was like my god am I impressed by Miami having said all that and Scott You got to raise your bar man. You're not greedy enough 21

1:06:12I want 21 and a half and I do think the Corle of parlay plus 21 and a half to under 56 How good would a 38-17 final be where you steal not just one win But you steal the parlay also It's definitely correlated because in this type of game in order for wake forest to cover They're not going to win a shootout against Miami, right? And we know that on we know that dog and under is correlated in any game regardless But especially when you consider the opponent dog and under is absolutely correlated because they're not winning a third They're not winning a shootout here against Miami where they're not keeping it close in a shootout if the game goes over They're gonna lose by three touchdowns if the game is close. They're gonna they're gonna keep it to a lower score. Would you agree with that? Yeah, I agree with that I just I can't get to wake just from my power rankings or my power ratings just just have this at 25 20 25 and a half on a neutral And I can't with wake for there's not enough with wake forest for me to go. Yeah, that's such a tough environment

1:07:12For Miami to go play in and you know, Darian Mince what was seeing him with You know the cast of characters that was around him last year compared to the cast of characters around him this year It might not look like the same guy to these guys on film that they saw a year ago. So I just I don't want to get in the way of that juggernaut right now I think wake or I think wake forest is one of the worst power four teams in the country And I think Miami's a quite frankly a National title contender. So I 21 21 and a half. I don't know that would be enough for me. 21 and a half. Maybe I could consider it But anything 21 or under I'm totally out on All right, well, it is a Friday night game. So you never know public's gonna come in public loves Miami public has me Malachi Tony and Darian Mence for the Highsman So maybe that 21 and a half does become available here on Friday night one final game I want to ask you guys about number 16 SMU at number 23 Louisville Louisville one and a half high total 59 and a half Fez you when you work with Dan the Stateman

1:08:13Do you know where he has this game and do you think we're gonna see some market movement before saturdays kickoff He's got to pick him and he's got the total at 62 so not far off from the spread sure. I do think SMU People I respect it made a case for Louisville I like SMU early in the game If I had to bet one bet in this game, I think I'd bet SMU first quarter AJ what do you think? All right, so a downgrade on Louisville a bit for AJ As he Cripped out there at the worst time. I wanted to hear his final thoughts. Fez about why we do maybe do a parlay We play SMU to score first into win the game. How about and okay? Now this is a case also where Traditionally one and a half would be a teaser candidate, but you are not a college football teaser guy You do not don't college football Don't don't be a dummy. There's always an exception to the rule All right, if you get six point even money teasers and maybe an army and eight game where there's somebody's favored by seven and the total is 38 But if it's so the exception just don't tease college football

1:09:17All right, well we missed AJ's last thoughts there as he got disconnected Fez any final thoughts on the college football schedule before we wrap up here Yeah, I'm gonna reemphasize the eight of clubs betting method I want you to write down every side and every total right now On all these games in college and then on Saturday when you're about to make a bet Look at it and don't take the worst of the number example. Let's say Miami closes my is 22 right you get lay 20 and half of Miami right now If you're if you lay my is 22 you it is impossible to win You know taking the very worst of the number like that By contrast, it's a lot easier to win when you fade this big steam line move and this work beautifully in preseason this year In the NFL, but um don't get so caught up and oh sharp money is on these sides like if you see a total go from 55 to 51 You play over or you pass you don't play under 51 That's good advice Good advice don't forget you can follow Steve Fezick on twitter at Fezick sports you can get Fez is full betting card available at

1:10:24SIC picks.com of course Fez a frequent contributor to better day.com But his full packages only available at SIC picks he does not have a website There's no Fezick sports website out there. So if you see it it is fake do not Take do not go there at all you can only find Fez at SIC picks and any other contributions that he gives to better day.com You can follow a J Hoffman on twitter at a J is the real He got disconnected from us, but it's okay We are we are streaming live every Thursday 2 pm eastern time 11 a.m. Pacific time If you missed any portion of the show you can watch it on the better day youtube page also on twitter at better underscore day go to better day.com learn how you can become a better day insider or premium members I mentioned new feature that we rolled out today college football full matchup breakdowns You get all the statistical analysis EPA per play points for scoring opportunity every advanced that you want to know and links directly to the Trunch reports you can compare where the numbers say to where the trench report says

1:11:28NFL trench report is live as well and of course the data will sharpen up as we progress and have more data point This season because we only had one game in the NFL. We've only had two games in college football So as we move throughout the season the information gets sharper and sharper I'm Scott Zadenberg You know he sent me up on twitter at scots on air. We will podcast this episode as well So make sure you are subscribed to the better day podcast feed for AJ Hoffman who's oh he's back. Do we? AJ's back oh I was just signing off, but then you surprised us and you came back. Wow. Sorry Scott. That's okay. That's okay Hey, did Miami's gonna win the national championship, right? No, no, I do think they are I think they're a contender, but I don't think they're gonna win the national championship Put me down for Miami, but based upon get this based upon their tremendous performance as a 60 point favorite Yes, for a an M AJ I will let you wrap up your thought here on why you downgraded Louisville. So go ahead before we sign off

1:12:28Yeah, I downgraded Louisville based off their performance. It's Ole Miss I thought they were gonna be more involved. I thought they would be better or more closely matched talent wise in that game And they didn't really look like they were they look behind the times on the coaching I just soured on them in week one Whereas SMU is a team that I'm kind of starting to believe is maybe the second best team in the ACC Behind Miami. So I think SMU up arrow Louisville down arrow I think we're getting a fair price on SMU here. So I like the I like the ponies By the way Louisville did cover in week ones. That's all that matters. Yeah, it is all the matters Fair enough For AJ Hoffman and Steve Fizzick. I'm Scott Saddenberg here. So hoping you make today and every day a better day We'll talk to you next time right here. Everyday.com on the better day football shot