Dan & Macken Survive the NFL: Week 3

0:00looking for these better days. Welcome back to Dan and Mac and survive NFL week three. Now Dan, I have to give you the floor because when I woke up, I was under the impression we were going to use one of our entries on the Packers, you know, big home favorites on Thursday, need the win. But you talked us out of it and I was so glad when I woke up and I saw 17, seven Falcons and they ended up running away with it. And I got to give you credit because last year, the year before when all the analytics nerds were telling me Jordan love top five quarterback, you weren't a believer. Now tell us why Jordan loves socks. Well Mac, I am happy. We're down to three entries listeners. We'll recap that here in a bit. We're going to recap the Green Bay Packers to all the OG listeners. You've heard this before from me. It's Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kredleid offense. You might be wondering Dan, the A and the next people told me Jordan, them is awesome. He was never awesome. He can't be awesome because he does not

1:04make good decisions. Week one Mac, that was the quintessential Jordan love game. And that game alone was just confirmation bias of why I never liked him. Last year week three when the Packers went on the road to the Cleveland Browns, they were about a touchdown favorite, I believe. Everybody's picking them for survivor. I said no, because he's going to do something really, really stupid. What do you do? He threw an INT to defensive tackle. That's not me miss. Remembering he threw the intercept into defensive tackle in last second. Jordan's love problem. He's really bad at decision making. Jordan loves other problems when you need him to throw. And then to our world, no, he's going to throw. He cannot throw. If you remember, I think about three to four years ago, Mac in the NFC division game, it was Jordan love in the Packers, rest of 49ers. Jordan love comes on hot, nineers down. And all of a sudden, the nineers start coming back. Once again, Jordan love has to throw an entire world knows it. He threw it up. He threw it up. He threw it up. He threw

2:07it in the interception and that game. That was also stupid decision crosses body. My point is, Jordan love cannot carry. He's never been able to carry. He does have top 10 top five moments. If you're not watching him play in and play out and not watch on game fully, let's just say you're falling from a thingy perspective or just a highlight perspective. You're probably not going to see this. But when you start watching him from play to play, you start noticing man, this guy makes some really poor decisions. There's been a couple of games over the years where he did get away with it. Funny enough, Mac. It was another 49ers game where they had their third of Portering quarterback going to Green Bay because Brock Perdue was here and the back of us here. And again, in that game, Jordan love was throwing really bad balls as they were not getting intercepted. But that is my tangent on Jordan love. He's never been good. Despite what the numbers say, I'm not a big internet ex-guiding world because there's no context to it. They're just there to screen all day and tell you this that it means absolutely nothing in the gambling world.

3:07Cool Jordan love was awesome at one point. E.P.A. per play. Where are these people now? They fell on the numbers with no context. And on the flip side, Matt LaFlor. He does have some bad moments. I love Matt LaFlor. I am hoping they fire him because you are going to get the most pissed poor Jordan love possible. Matt LaFlor is absolutely carrying this team right now. You might be wondering Dan, what were those play calls? Well, when you have a bad offense line, it's not going to work. Well, Mac, when Jordan love can't make a decision, it's not going to work. Now again, I'm going to say it again, Mac, because I don't want people to be like, you're just a Matt and a floor lover. I am. I'll keep admitting it. I love them as a coach. But there are some in-game decision and some in-game, how should you say? He likes to let his foot off the gas. He's salt in the biking team. That's inferiority. If you're a packer fan, that shouldn't be a VIII, but to all you packer fans, you do not want the fire Matt LaFlor. You think Jordan loves sucks now. Wait until you go get some crappy retread DC. Who Roblox guy will run the ball?

4:08God luck because you're going to be furious every single week. But Mac, Pat herself, son of a back, really happily net new this week. We did lose a couple of entries on the bus. We'll discuss that in a bit. Long story short, listeners in Mac, he just can't make good decisions. He's got to be carried. Matt LaFlor does do a good job. I don't think he can actually overcome missing the offensive linemen. Your quarterback, Matt, being with the row, you're tied in and Tucker Kraft now have to pretty much largely block now because you do not have an offensive lineman. You have no run game. The past in game, he's charged work kind of well, but I think it's more of a function that defenses your plane versus what you can do. So Mac, that is my tangent. If you have indicated, there's a certain listener out there who will probably listen to this name, Josh Shanker. I talked him all the time about this. He noticed this too. Him and I paid Jordan love last two to three years. Shout out to Josh. Yeah, so I'll send this to him. But Mac, I am happy the downside is we cannot use the package for survivor anymore. I don't have

5:10an out. We can't have an out really coming in those week, but they have officially entered that probably no go zone for the foreseeable future. And that is the entrance of this podcast, Mac. How are you doing? How did Nicky feel? We still have three entries left. How do you feel about the buck's losing last week? I'm doing really well because winning in survivor gives you about 0.33 fractional win because you're supposed to win as Fez always says 67% of the time, two-thirds of the time, but not losing. And I woke up thought thinking we were losing. We had an entry out is worth 0.67 twice as much. It's twice as much benefit to your survivor equity to not lose than it is to win in a particular week. So great job out of you. Some of the game theory, like you said, if not now, when can we use the package? Well, maybe never. Matt LaFloor, I thought you made a good point about him being an excellent play caller and putting his foot off the glass. I think he's

6:10defined by, I mean, this is guy with a 65% wing percentage or so in the NFL. He's had tremendous success by any measure. But in the NFC championship game that first time against Tom Brady, they had fourth and seventh or fourth and goal from the seventh, something like that. He kicks a field goal, lets his defense lose the game. And that's kind of been his MMO, just kind of hoping that things don't go bad rather than taking it to the opposition. And Jordan, love, I'll give my two cents. I think it's a fascinating case because I think you're right. I think he's a highlight player. He has some dropbacks where he takes a hit and fade away 30 yard pass in traffic just beyond the defense is outstretched arms and you're like, wow, so there's that end of it. And then the other end of it, if you're not looking at any of the plays, you're just looking at the stats. He puts up pretty good stats. Well, Matt LaFloor can scheme up. I mean, they scored the first touchdown last night. You can scheme up touchdowns with the best of them in that first half of the game. We've seen this year

7:16where the Packers are up 22-10 against the Vikings. So a lot of his stats are not the difficult stats to get. And then you throw in good stats with every now and then you get a sports center highlight and your mind kind of fills in the gap. And this guy's always doing it, but I think we've been fooled. I remember having a debate about Brock Perty versus Jordan, love years ago. And for a while, it was just like, well, everyone agrees that Jordan loves top five and Brock Perty's top 15. I guess I lost that one, even though I don't really know where. Because when I watched it, then I just see Brock Perty doing more on a per play basis. And now I feel vindicated that Perty's like number one or number two in QBR and Jordan, love might be looking for a new coach and not do any fault of his own. Let's talk about Baker Mayfield, unfortunately, because I staked our reputation two of our entries on Baker Mayfield. I thought he would have a bounce back game and Todd Bowles and the Bucks. And none of it came to fruition. And they could have won. The lightning was kind of a bad fortune as

8:17I think they would have driven and scored that final touchdown, which like the Eagles did to beat the Titans. They had the momentum arguably. And they just didn't get it done. And I think kind of going back to Jordan, love when you look at the Bucks and their struggles, do they have a great offensive coordinator play collar? And when they don't have great play calling, can't do they have a quarterback that can carry them? And in the Packers case, they've usually had good play calling and Jordan loves been just good enough to carry them. In the Bucks case, they got rid of anything. Get rid of them. He left Liam Cohen. They also lost Dave Canal as both of them are having pretty good success in other Southern NFL teams. I think both of them are one-on-one, but offense is looking good. And so you have Zach Robinson, who's never really had a successful play calling year. And you have Baker Mayfield who's already been paid. This is like an MBA type situation where all right, he's probably gotten his last big contract of his career three year, one 65. I mean, maybe he'll play another five, six years, but you know, this was the big bag

9:19and he got it. And I don't think he's like, doesn't care anymore, but he's having some fun out there. He's letting it loose. He's kind of scrambling himself into sacks. He's not locked in the way that I feel like he has been when he was on the bubble of, am I going to be in the NFL next year? Maybe it clicks back in, but it's not clicking back in anytime soon. So we got, I got that wrong. And I also got to shot a lot's and wrong. I figured like his stats had suggested he had been the worst quarterback in the NFL the last few years. Well, before that, he was one of the best and the truth, it looks like it's somewhere in the middle. He's just an okay to bad quarterback on okay to bad team. And those teams can win it on any given Sunday versus a team not as inspiring as the buck. So yet we go from five to three. Any final thoughts on that autopsy report for those two survivor picks then. Unfortunately for the buck to pick Mac, I think we're going to lose no matter what last week. We could have used the Ravens. We kicked that can down the road. They lost chargers was another

10:24like game theory situation because they have a brutal schedule coming down the pipeline. Well, they lost. And I think it was one more bigger favor last week. Chief one over time and one. I might have considered that, but I want to kick that can down the road because they do play Miami week three of them. Like, you know what? Let's kick that can down the road. The only thing I wish is I wish we would have, I don't know, maybe we would have taken it from the Eagles and it would have been the same. But I really liked the Panther spec. I actually bet that with my own money as we got closer to, I bet that minus two and a half minus one 18. And that was that was rocking chairweather. So good. I have a kind of letter. Sharp alternative there. All right. So let's get into week three. We have three picks remaining. So we're kind of like right on par with what you're supposed to do. We go from eight to five. That's about two thirds. You go from five to three. That's 60%. So we're doing okay. We're on par with what is expected. But you know, us, we want to do much, much better than that. We want to get into week 10, week 15 and make some noise here. So dealers choice. Biggest favorites on the board. You got the Niners, you got the bills, you got the

11:30chiefs at the dolphins. People are probably going to be going against the dolphins every week. And we have the Seahawks at seven and a half. Wow. That moved from six and a half to now seven and a half at the commanders. What's what do you what's top of mind as we consider a survivor pick for week three? Let's start with Seattle. Since you just mentioned it and we're from six and a half to seven and a half. It sounds like Sam Donald is going to play. I was kind of hoping he wasn't going to play this week. Mac. I was kind of hoping they might ramp it up because Drew Lock is good enough in the situation versus commanders. Commanders are missing a lot of guys right now. The final injury reports are not out yet. Correction. The final practice reports are not out yet. But looking like going into this podcast as we record this Mac. Commanders might be missing more guys. Jason is on a tear right now. If Sam Donald is largely good to go. I feel pretty confident we're going to win this. There's no weather issues. You actually told me in this a couple of years ago that the commanders historically at that stadium is not very good. They have actually I think a losing record or close to it.

12:35They do have a losing record. They are the worst home team since 1997 when they open FedEx fields. Kind of buy a lot. The charges are closed but no the commanders are the worst. At least on the chargers and that one is just like oh chargers don't have a real home. You can make an argument for other teams being more popular but what are the commanders excuse that's just pathetic. We're going to assume Sam Donald is going for the sake of this argument. I still like it. I don't think Seattle is going to have a letdown. I don't think McDonald is that type of coach. I think you will have them ready. I think Drew Lock is a capable backup and let's just say Sam Donald gets hurt again. So we have a capable backup plane. Marcus Mariotta with this all offensive line. I think he's 32 or 33. Not looking forward to that if you were a commander span. He's a capable backup. I just don't think in this matchup it is the time for him to play. The offensive line is not very good. The weapons aren't very good. The defense is very good. So Mac this was probably going to be at least worth one entry to me because there are a

13:36couple other times they can use them coming down the pipeline but I kind of feel like this is a good week to at least split them with a no team like a Kansas City or maybe somebody else on the board. And let's say hypothetically Mac what if they turn the ball over three times? You and I have been in that situation before. It's not very fun but let's say it turn over two or three times. Do we have trust the commanders can have you do anything with it? I don't. If Sam Donald or Drew Lock was to one glorified arm plant one turnover midfield and one turnover deep in their own territory probably only a field going that situation so maybe two vehicles max but I just don't trust commanders can do anything you even with those turnovers. So I had them at least one entry. Is there any pushback where you might make maybe think well they might lose or just kind of one of those commanders don't do anything well. Maybe Jayden Daniels injury pretty much killed his team for the year and maybe they should done already. I would agree. Maybe Dan Quinn's on his way out but Mac is there any arguments you could even at least grow out there that you might be able to

14:40see for this loss or no. There are a couple and I do like to pick and I think we should go with it but I always need jerk say all right when I go when a quarterback comes back and this was the opposite with Michael Pentax where he comes back the line moves two and a half three points and he looks great. He has another 80 QBR game his fifth 80 plus QBR game and 13 starts which is kind of crazy for someone we don't consider that good in Michael Pentax but whenever there's a line move in the NBA or the NFL about a guy coming back I always have the knee jerk reaction of okay but is he back and Sam Donald's injury wasn't you know coming back from the killies or wasn't something that we would think he would necessarily not be himself but the line did move a lot and I'm always like all right I would like to see it if I could before I assume he's back to being Sam Donald that again that again the line didn't move crazy it moved moved about a point so if he does come back which is not certain I'd be a little just a little a little tentative and the other thing is Marcus

15:41Mario da as backups go has been pretty good not spectacular but he has been decent that said I'll always until I'm proven wrong contest that the commanders have no home field advantage and I also love that the Seahawks have such a consistent defense you mentioned the nightmare scenario where they have three turnovers commanders might get 10 points out of that they might get six points out of that if the Seahawks just hold them every time their defense is so consistent they've allowed what 17 points this season against two you know not terrible offenses probably best defense in the league maybe the best defense in a couple years and that just makes a really low variance type game so I like I like to see how I do we should talk to dolphins chiefs chiefs are biggest favorite on the board the only question it seems to me or the first question it seems to me is are the chiefs good enough where we would like to save them other opportunities I mean we could diversify our bonds

16:41here and use them as one pick but what are your thoughts on chiefs dolphins is it just too easy or the dolphins just too bad or like are too obviously bad I should say where everyone's going to be on the chiefs and we might do better looking elsewhere well Mac picture this a few years ago to all the OG listeners out there you and I made that deep run we were 15 point favors the Buffalo Bills playing the crappy Jacksonville Jaguars that by Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence and unfortunately lost that game so we a little bit of PTSD because we were in another situation Patrick Mahomes can't if Walker good run game Andy Reed for some lowly dolphins playing 10 and a half points here so I'm hoping we don't repeat that but I don't think I don't think we've really truly grasped how bad the dolphin are going to be this year what do they do well Mac I cannot tell you a single thing that's a good question like Devon H&N when they say they play hard on the broadcast like multiple

17:43times like yeah we talk to the coach and you look at the first play you look at the last play they're playing just as hard I'm like that's what I say about like my P.W. team that's O1 11 like that is not a huge compliment to say the NFL players play hard often so yeah they don't do anything well no that's my concern I'm just same situation Mac three turnovers are we so sure the dolphins can even score three points in that situation I'm not the only counter argument to the chiefs is week four at Raiders week five by week six hosting the chargers and it seems like they've just gone off a cliff week 10 at Atlanta week 11 at Arizona that's probably the last week you could probably want to use them because starting week 12 onward just one brutal game at the after another they do host Raiders week 18 but I don't want to be saving me Kansas City for week 18 for a game they might not even be trying in so don't mind saving them for another week and a couple pools don't mind using one now but I just don't see how they lose this game although we did mention last week Mac we

18:47want to fade road teams come off overtime games they don't do historically well here but honestly my guess is Kansas City takes care of the business they should take care of business they kind of need to win this game keep that ball rolling if they know try it's it'd be different this is like middle of the season and there's like a sandwich game maybe I could see them kind of like being lack today is it going to take it seriously but it's week three you're coming off an overtime win against the cold you need this game don't think you're gonna melt in but I don't think we see a similar situation the Buffalo bills we had a few years ago you know going through that schedule I don't really love any of those spots for the chiefs like at Raiders we could use them but it's at you know I rather have them versus the Raiders uh you know in Arrowhead and then you say at Chargers okay they're bad now but they probably don't go oh and eight they probably go one in seven they're gonna get they're talented enough to get one of these wins against the Seahawks or the bills or the chiefs uh I wouldn't like love throwing the chiefs against against the Chargers

19:51especially at Chargers or is that that's this first Chargers actually still I don't think there's a good enough argument about their upcoming schedule then you talk about week 10 all right we'll get there when we get there um to not have them on our card so maybe just one one of our three and if we will just split it threes and not double up on any other one but we'll see what we like about the other ones uh let's go to my 49ers I think this is a division game Cardinals have played them tough before Brock Perty's playing great maybe the Australia jet lag catches up to them a week after the fact um I still just go back to the to the to the week like six to ten stretch that we talked about last week where there's a lot of spots where I'd like to lean on my 49ers um so I I will uh recommend holding them off the card um and then let's I'll double up uh bills Chargers this line was four this line was two and a half when it opened in June or May then it moved to three and a half before

20:53the season started so optimism on the bills some pessimism on the Chargers but now it's seven and a half and it's not like anyone got hurt all the players that we expected in June are now here bills for his Chargers and it's moved from two and a half to now seven and a half of course I think the bills are better than we expected and the Chargers are worse I have made those mental upgrades and downgrades um but it seems too much it seems like this is not the survivor pick this the charge again the Chargers are not going to go oh and eight they might go one and seven this might be the one where they sneak out what are your thoughts on uh nineers Cardinals bills Chargers major agreement on the Cardinals even when the are with the 49ers even with Cather Murray there was a stretch there with the Niners and Cardinals for a while that they would kind of go back and forth and the Cardinals not being very good mostly or could maybe get in a 50-50 game it is a week six seven eight nine for the 49ers Mac where week eight it is by they'd be hosting the Raiders after that and they're kind of banged up right now so I'm fine you can the can down that road that bills line I understand

21:56might moved but that came kind of seems like an over adjustment I know this offense has been good for the Chargers the bills seem like they want to stop the run and not the pass this year or might have that backwards correction they want to stop the pass and maybe they want to run at some point I do think the Chargers are going to want to figure it out or have something finally figured out they go out kind of arguing it for the bills it is Mac they do play the dolphin twice this year and I'm finally gonna get my can down the road maybe against the jets although I probably want to be that enthusiastic about it but there are opportunities on both the bills so I'm fine the past and this week I just kind of feel like that is a team I want some future valium and I want to see more of those bills team they're coming off a very very good win over the lines but the line secondary so beat up so I kind of like expect them kind of roll like that they did lose DJ more but I think it's gonna play maybe the bills defense a little bit beat up still going into this game but overall let's just kick that can down the road for the bills Josh Allen 14 and 3

23:00in his career versus the bitter rivals of the Miami dolphins division AFC East rivals this is probably the worst dolphins he's a hill face and I don't think he's gonna go 14 and 4 it's much bigger deal in Buffalo that rivalry than it is in Miami they just care about football more it's colder there's not South Beach there's a lot of reasons why the football is just more top of mind in Buffalo and I just I just think that's even though it's like the Super Bowl for the dolphins supposedly because they have nothing else to play for besides upsetting the rivals I think it will still be a bigger game for Buffalo so yeah they play them twice I would love to be able to pick them one week where they are hosting the dolphins and even if they're at the dolphins that's a win all right so we're getting down the board here I'm kind of leaning to do either two chiefs one Seahawks or two Seahawks one chiefs but are there any other ones of the big favorites that we should consider or is there a sharp alternative that we haven't talked about yet that you think

24:02you should earn one of our three spots remaining another bigger favorite we've not discussed yet it is a lion I'm gonna say it again I don't trust that secondary I do think genome it Smith and the judge are good enough to maybe maybe make you sweat in this game the lion should be getting some offensive lineman back but again we're recording Friday and morning I need to see that injury report that's another situation I just passed because I don't know what this line's offense is yet we have a two-week sample size with one of the weeks being not very good and the other week being with them being thought lining offensive lineman so if just pass that game for now I need more sample size I don't have a super strong sharp alternative this week maybe the Ravens if I have his confidence a fly versus plane because I think they can name that score and drop 35 points here against that bad Cowboys defense if Houston had Nico Collins I would make that argument because they I feel like this is a good Houston spot I kind of like Houston still even without Nico Collins and there was one more

25:03game I thought I had this week and it was the Panthers but we use them one pool although Mac I don't know if I'd want Panthers this week because you kind of buy like a high point now I kind of feel like last week was the right spot but I don't have a strong sharp alternative this week all the three team digest mentioned are kind of forest maybe a bangles but again I don't trust their offensive line and Joe Burrow right now plus they play the Browns and you can use them in there or you can use them Steelers later in the year so I don't have anything confident this week Mac is there anything that kind of stood out to you down the board um not entirely so much man giant giant are down to two and a half I do think the Steelers are overrated still or maybe properly that related but that's a huge move from two and a half to three and a half so any value there seems to be gone I know you're saying okay they just have to win what is the line move tell you well tells you how many people are likely going to be on it so that uh lessons your equity and it just shows you um like if the real line was two

26:04and a half and that move was wrong then this is a coin flip game I mean the Steelers at home big rivalry they're reliable to get one pick six so I have more buyer beware's the Rams playing at the Broncos Broncos have had a great September home field advantage by the way another reason to like the chiefs Andy Reed does not drop these games as big favorites in September maybe later in the year but in September his team is pretty locked in I would say my biggest buyer beware actually is Eagles at Bears I guess it's not official the Caleb Williams is out but also a Badgin is good Badgin is probably one of the better backups and the Eagles have played two teams that have not won a game in the commanders in the Titans and they played them both down to the wire uh so Eagles could ease like not easily but theoretically be oh and two of us two of the worst teams in the league and we'd have a very different opinion of them um in the rain storm the bears Ben Johnson's offense did not look like it does typically in a dome but no reports of crazy weather in Chicago uh in this in this late September Monday um so I I think that is actually a decent buyer beware or if you're just looking for

27:10a dog tease him up to 10 and a half kind of like the bears to be honest with you on Monday night so Dan I'll give it to you for the final selection you've heard my opinion we go two chiefs one Seahawks but I wouldn't be opposed to uh split it up differently uh what do you think for our final selections and importantly what is our official selection which cards on the table we are only one in one with our official week podcast survivor selection after losing with the bucks last week uh but what do you think for week three I kind of like your um buyer beware ram spook was probably not gonna play Eagles I don't know if I agree with because it sounds like Tyson Vaget is in concussion protogross still and I don't know okay that's news to me yeah so if it's case keen of which you still feel that way or is he kind of just one of those three thirching quarter back in 39 years old playing big fan geo I mean I wouldn't feel great about picking the Eagles still as a survivor pick because I think the Eagles might be a little fugacy but um yes that that is that explains why the line move from Eagles minus three and half to Eagles minus four and a half it's

28:14uh it's not something I'd be excited to put my money down on if it's case kingdom that's for sure if I'm if I'm very amazed plus four and a half yeah the that Eagles team looks off dude I don't know if this is a coordinators they don't have a run game going Seahawks and Barclay did practice say in limited role but he's coming off the stinger would if he gets hurt again I don't really trust Jaylen Hertz I know it's the Bears defense but I could just see the Eagles offense struggling against the Bears defense on the Monday nights um if I had a buyer be where this meek I would probably go to the Minnesota Vikings I know the bucks just lost to the browns but Kyler Murray he's an upgrade over Carson Wentz I just don't know how much yet is Kyler Murray gonna truly sit in this Kevin O'Connell offense and slice and dice his defense I don't trust Kyler can it's not what he's really done he likes to run around not a big fan of backing quarterbacks off that first game the concussion plus I believe they play the Minnesota the Vikings I believe are hosting the Miami dolphins next week for a week for so maybe you're thinking the buck suck just just wait one more week and use them against the dolphins

29:16but Mac we will make the official pick at the Kansas City Chiefs we'll go two sections Chiefs one Seattle I'm fine with that there's no weather issues I just don't see how these teams are gonna lose this week outside of turnover seem with the turnovers I don't trust those other teams can score so two chiefs once he Hawks I'll mess with the combinations later when I sign in there our account and mess with that way fisher pick chiefs and I will throw it back to you to end this pond anything else to an end we are right on half an hour as planned as is the goal so happy to end it here and you might say hey I listened to a half an hour podcast on survivor and they told me to take the biggest survivor on the pick on the board well someone would have told you by Microsoft in 1992 or Apple in 2008 or Nvidia in 2019 you might be like well everyone's buying everyone says they're the next big thing and yes sometimes the sharpest thing to do is say the consensus on this particular occasion is right let me back up the brings truck yeah I'll

30:16diversify a little bit I'll buy some you know cloud fare whatever you know cyber security is gonna be pretty big in the age of AI but sometimes the consensus again is the right pick so this has been Dan and Mackin survive NFL week three the chiefs are gonna get us home for week three the Seahawks come along two easy wins and we will see you guys in week four