Soccer Scandal & Idiot Ambassadors

0:00Welcome back to Potsay of the World on Tommy B-12. I'm Ben Rhodes. Ben, the New England Patriots officially suck. This is our NFL talk everyone. Skip Ford 30 seconds. Well, we can actually cross the streams here because in part it's because, you know, Drake May may have been a flash in the pan. In part it's because your coach may have run off to some Arizona resort with the ESPN reporter. Diana, take him back. Also, maybe they Bob Kraft karma. I noticed that the Ed Sheeran shows are canceled because of whether so maybe like all this karma is hitting Bob Kraft, you know. Do you see all the tweets of people being there was like, hey, BB Nenyahoo, the Patriots, offensive coordinator. I did. I did. So I may have sent you one. If not, I definitely thought about sending you one of those because it was, it was pretty good.

1:00The good tweet. Red Sock Yankees tonight. We're recording Tuesday, September 29th. I will be rooting for the Red Socks. Playoff baseball. I always like the, you know, as soon as the Mets are eliminated, which is every season. I always root for whoever is playing the Yankees. So I will actually be rooting for Boston. Well, famously the Yankees do suck as I have chanted my entire entire life. It may not be known to the pot say the world audience and I'm really dating myself here. But do you remember when Roger Clemens and Mike Piazza in the head with the pitch? I was at that game in Yankee Stadium. And I vowed to never enter Yankee Stadium again and I have not been since then. Well, good for you. I was like a kid. It's been like, you know, 30 years or something. I haven't got that. You're like Mandela. Yeah. Yeah. We have a great show for you guys today. We're going to recap the Trump state visit with Xi Jinping and frankly just how little was actually accomplished. How strange it was. It was at least in some pandas. We're going to update you at the latest with Iran and this kind of new workaround for oil and gas producers in the straight up for moves.

2:00And the arrests in the UK that may or may not be linked to Iran. I don't know that we know yet. We're going to dig into serious concern about renewed conflict in Ethiopia. And like just the more I read about this, the more freaked out of became. And I talked to someone who said like she was worried that the crisis could engulf the entire Horn of Africa. A very troubled region. You could see all these wars kind of merged together. It's a very important story that gets no attention. So we're going to cover that. We're going to talk about the scandal engulfing Manchester City in its ownership group in the United Arab Emirates. If you non-soccer fans trust me, you'll you'll like this one. Yeah, it's given. Collision of like state-backed entities and professional sports. It's just very interesting. Always, always rich, rich terrain. Yeah, it's coming for us. We're going to talk about some tech and AI news because you can't avoid it these days. And it's not fun to read about. And then the final segment we're calling dumb ambassadors been. This is a little surprise for us. Oh, dumb ambassadors is always great. There's been some great coverage. I hope Greece is on the list. Oh, yeah. Okay. That one I did see that one.

3:00You're not going to surprise me with Greece for those little teaser for you guys. Donald Trump, Jr's ex fiance Kim Gilfoil and Gavin's ex and Gavin Newsom's ex out here in California. She seems a lot of progress. She seems a lot of progress. Yeah, she is. It's true for reasons that nobody can identify. I know knows and she's doing them weird shit. Then you're going to hear my conversation with Sam Vagorski. He's an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He went to Haiti for about a week back in June. Did a really great write-up and report about the situation on the ground. And it just, it's a really important story. Then because to me, first of all, we should care about people in Haiti because they're, it's very close to our own shores. It's a country that desperately needs some sort of helper intervention. And it has not come. In fact, it's just gotten harmed by US interventions over the many decades. But also it underscores the unbelievable cruelty immorality of removing temporary protected status and sending 350,000 people back to a place with war zone-like violence. Well, you have a State Department travel warning telling Americans it's not safe to go there.

4:00So we've literally just determined as a government that is unsafe. Which is the criteria to get asylum or temporary protected status in this country. And I guess because Stephen Miller once said the quota doesn't exist. Stephen Miller's quota is like, well, it's safe for Haitians. Absolutely not. No, it's absolutely not. It's literally war zone-like levels of violence. So stick around for that. Please, because it's very important. All right, Ben. So we spent a bunch of time last week previewing Chinese President Xi Jinping's State visit to Washington. We're going to close the loop on it today, but it's going to be brief. Because as expected, the situation is going to be very close. We're going to close the loop on it today, but it's going to be brief. Because as expected, they didn't do much. There was a small reduction in tariffs like 30 billion, I think. The two leaders extended this broader truth in the trade war for a couple of months. The US in China agreed to hold a dialogue about artificial intelligence. So they're talking, they talked about talking about AI. Great. The White House also announced that, do you see this China said, or the White House said that China is now going to call it super intelligence, not artificial intelligence. I'm not sure that I think the Chinese kind of disputed it.

5:00But again, I think we all can agree that the branding is what matters. The most concrete deliverable was that the Chinese loaned us to giant pandas, which are now chilling at the Atlanta Zoo. There's Pingping, which means peace and fushuang, which means double blessings. If it's a quarantine for a month, then they can get registered to vote and vote for John Austin. Yeah. Down in Atlanta. But big picture, it seems like the Chinese got all the trappings of a state visit. They gave Trump vague process crap and return, which is their favorite thing to do. So they're going to give you some like make work. No actual deliverable. The one headline that did catch our attention came from these comments from the US ambassador to China, David Perdue. So this clip is from Fox News Sunday, and then we added in Trump's response when he was asked about produced comments on Monday. Let's watch. There are continued conversations about other sales. He and Pres. C talk about that every time they get together. But President Trump continues to say, hey, we sell arms to other people around the world. He actually asked to Pres. C. Would he like to buy some at one point?

6:00Perdue said that you suggested to President Xi that the US would sell US military equipment to China. Is that accurate? Did you think such a suggestion? To China? To China. You mean to Taiwan? No, to China. That's what he said. I never heard of that when I got out to ask him. You mean, we're going to sell. No, they probably like to buy it because we do make better equipment than that. So maybe it's a good idea. But we didn't discuss. They may have been talking about Taiwan. I think he probably was talking about this. What do you think would be most useful for the Chinese when it comes to invading Taiwan? Some US and Fibias assault ships. Yeah. We have Virginia class, maybe aircraft carrier. If you're going to forward it. Why not? We can actually, well, I don't know that we can spare any because they're all breaking down in the med. Yeah. What the, what do you make of this? Do you, I assumed he was kidding, but like, I don't know, doesn't really seem like it. He was not kidding, Purdue, who's not the brightest bulb, though. I mean, it's one of these, I mean, first of all, as you pointed out, and we're going to allow ourselves to see this top of the show, this would be like a multi-year story if a Democratic president had an ambassador go out and say, yeah, we're going to sell some arms to China.

7:14Like, you know, we'd be the centerpiece of the next presidential campaign or something, but put that aside. Purdue was like certain about it. Trump loves selling stuff to other countries and we should add, by the way, that China committed at the last summit where nothing really happened in China to buy all these Boeing planes that they still have not bought. So they figured out the same thing, the Gulf did. You just promised to do a bunch of stuff that you're never going to do. Trump celebrates it. I mean, what I think is interesting and alarming here is that one of these two men is not telling the truth. So either Donald Trump is actually talking to Xi Jinping about selling them weapons, which they spend a lot of time spying on. Or actually, like, let's pause in the fact in foreshadowing our final segment here. They're ambassador to China, which is probably the single most important ambassador or post in the world, is such a dumb fucking moron that he mixed up Taiwan and China.

8:21And, you know, there's a lot of talk about arm sales. Yeah, not a good outcome either way. I do talk about arm sales in the bilat with the Chinese president, but it's arm sales to Taiwan. Neither of those answers are particularly comforting, you know. Especially at the time when the US is holding up this $14 billion arm sale to Taiwan. I'm sure the Taiwanese read this headline, you got to be kidding me. You got to be kidding me. Yeah, you're already holding this back. I mean, and this matters because if we do like hold back that $14 billion arm sale at a time of, you know, the US on the back foot without munitions to spare even for ourselves, we can spare it to Israel, but that's another story. This is like the window when China might do something in Taiwan. 2027, 2028, the last years of the Trump administration, the US has isolated its running out of munitions. We're no longer supplying arms to Taiwan that are meant to deter an invasion. And we can decide whether we're trying to sell China arms or not like we probably forgot which side we're trying to arm here.

9:26We won't be selling them interceptor missiles because we're out of those. Yeah, we're out of a lot of the stuff. You know that stuff. Just on the panda point, it's funny that it's alone. I was going to give us the pen as they loan them. Yeah. It's the third pair of pandas to come over here in two years, I think in 2024, the Atlanta Zoo had to return four pandas to giants. So then a couple of them arrived in San Diego in 2024. This is a tradition that dates back to Mao and Nixon. I think the first panda that the Chinese ever loaned us was named Ping Ping. So that's fun. I like pandas. I guess they're cute looking. Yeah, I like pandas. I remember when they used to be at the National Zoom DC. They got yanked. Real bummer. Yeah, they took them back. I will say from the summit in general, it is it bears emphasis that it is an assassin. It is an astonishingly thin gruel that came out of now two summits between Trump and Xi. Where Trump just wanted, as we talked about, to come to protocol piece. But there were a couple interesting things underneath the hood. Like one is, did you see they basically extended the negotiations around some of these trade irritants and terrorists for two months?

10:32Like kind of noticeably until after the midterm elections. Yeah, strange. So that could be the Chinese just kind of wanting to see what they're dealing with, I think, on the back end of the midterm elections. That could be the Chinese just kind of squeezing Trump a bit. That could be the Chinese is kind of playing for time. But they are the ones who appear to have the leverage. Because as we talked about, they demonstrated that they have this choke point of these rare earth materials. That is much more damaging to the US economy than Trump's kind of episodic tariff tantrums with the Chinese. But I think that there's a common thread to Iran, which we'll talk about, to China, of these other countries like really watching the midterm elections. And it raises an interesting question about if Trump gets shellacked and they're Democrats in control of Congress. Like how does the rest of the world react to that? Yeah, they know it's a lame duck.

11:32Yeah, then they know it's a lame duck. And so that I thought was a really interesting outcome. The two months is not a subtle period of time. No, not at all. Good point. Pots of the world is brought to you by built. Here's a question. Are you getting rewarded for paying your rent or mortgage right now? If the answer is no, you need to check out built. Becoming a built member means earning points on every housing payment no matter where you live. Built points can be redeemed for flights, hotels, lift rides, Amazon.com purchases, future housing payments and much, much more. There's actually a ton of options. You can go to fitness classes like Soul Cycle or Berries. There are gift cards. It's over 120 brands. You can do member-only experiences. You can put it towards a down payment on a home. There's just a million different ways to spend your built points. And built a new AI neighborhood concierge doesn't just answer questions. It executes tasks. From paying your rent and hailing a lift to book and dinner reservations across 50,000 or more partners, it handles your to-do list while automatically applying your member benefits.

12:35The way it works is first you download the build tap. Second, you'll link any credit or debit card to that app so that purchases at your local spots become even more rewarding. And then third, you ask the neighborhood concierge and you have pretty much anything. And it'll alert you about exclusive member benefits near your home. And for the homeowners out there, built works for mortgages too. Your housing payment is one of your biggest monthly expenses, so why wouldn't you want to earn points on it too? Download the build tap and join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com slash world. That's j-o-i-n-b-i-l-t dot com slash world. Use our links so they know we sent you. Pots of the world is brought to you by select quote. With endless information and our fingertips 24 hours a day, it's easy to go down to research rabbit hole on literally anything. Restaurants, hotels, home appliances and even something is boring. As your bath towels, you can spend days pouring over reviews if you're not careful. Luckily, there's no need to add another item to your research list. Select quote is a life insurance broker that does the homework for you. Their license agents shop over 100 policies and find you a better rate for free.

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14:41That was an uplifting moment in UN history. At the same time though, the Qataris were mediating these indirect talks between Jared Kushner and Steve Wikof, the Sunalan, the idiot golf buddy, then Iran's foreign minister of Basarachi. Iran reportedly proposed a seven day ceasefire that included a fighting stops everywhere including Lebanon. America unfreezes billions in Iranian assets, lifts oil sanctions and calls out the blockade. And then on day seven, the straight up for moves would reopen for business and then nuclear talks would resume Trump not surprisingly said that was not acceptable proposal. According to the Wall Street Journal, he has told his aides that he will probably resume bombing after the midterms and I would like to see Democrats saying. Please release your secret plan to resume the war after the midterms and calling on all Republicans to denounce it. Axios reported that Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief in unfreeze frozen Iranian assets and returned for steps in the nuclear program. Trump denied that but again, like that's always been the deal that's on the table. So it's like, I don't get what everyone's denying at this point or what's on the table.

15:41One area though where conditions have improved for Trump is the flow of oil through the straight up for moves. So the US embargo seemingly has choked off Iran's exports of oil which will cause them increasing problems over time if their entire industry gets shut down. At the same time, the US military along with these countries in the Gulf have kind of worked on a system to get oil exports through the straight up for moves and out such that the level is close to pre war levels, although not fully at it. So it sounds like the Emirates piloted a system where they have a fleet of tankers. They loaded up at their ports. They shut all the oil out and then they unload the oil from their tankers into the international tankers at sea. So they basically take the back and forth risk of passing through the straight up for moves, but also the process adds significant cost. I've seen estimates between $15, $30 per barrel. So it's a lot of money. And it's not without risk, right? The Iranian take a shot and they hit one of these tankers. That's a huge deal.

16:41But the straight is no longer fully choked off by Iran, which is significant. But Trump seems kind of just disinterested in all of this. And this clip is from Monday in the Yovl office where he was asked about the warless washer quick. Has your team just opened this little box today? Yeah, they have for mediators. Yeah. Anything else you can share about the movement of your own talks? We're going to win. As far as I'm concerned, it's going to be one way or the other. It's going to be, it's going to go pretty quickly. Keep that guy in, Adderall. Do you think that's a 5-mg edible or 10-mg? Yeah, yeah. He took the wrong bill. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He took the Xanax. He thought it was a Yaddi. I think the question, like being serious for a second, does this kind of oil work around that the Gulf countries have figured out with Senkham? Does this make Trump more or less likely to seek a deal? Does it increase or decrease the risk of the Iranians doing something escalatory? I think with the Iranians, I feel like it makes escalation more likely.

17:42But it's hard for me to gauge the Trumpies. Yeah, like we're all reading the tea leaves here. And so, you know, with the disclaimer that we, you know, who knows, right? There is clearly more oil and gas getting to that straight. Here's the problem with that, though. The costs are like very significant. You mentioned the costs to just the shipping. But there's also the cost of the U.S. maintaining this blockade of Iran and maintaining all this presence. They're not the scores. And so, you know, in the last few years, we've been doing this for a long time. There's like, you know, we have to escort some of these tankers. And so, this is not like some great solution, right? I mean, it's, it's better than nothing getting to the straight. But essentially, we've gone from the straping open for the war to like a massive U.S. military presence and blockade of Iran and occasional escorting of tanker ships to go through a laborious process that already adds to the price of energy because it just costs. So, we're going to go fly zone over the straight-up form moves, right? Because I think what's happening is American air assets are flying and prepared to shoot down any missiles or drones when these ships go through, which as you said, that's pretty intensive.

18:50That's pretty intensive, right? And so, we're paying billions and billions and billions of dollars just to do this. Second, to your point, I mean, the Iranians are more likely to escalate, I think. I mean, everything that we've seen out of the Iranians in this war is that they're not particularly inclined to de-escalate the hardliners are in charge. They're calling the shots. They're going to demonstrate that they have some capacity to impose a cost. That could be on trying to hit tankers. That could be on trying to target U.S. vessels. That could be re-opening some of the attacks on the Gulf, though we've seen. That could be through continued proxy attacks like we've seen from the Houthis on Saudi Arabia that has had its own costs on energy. So, the baseline point is that this kind of semi-on again, off again frozen conflict is not a solution. Because also, part of the disruption of the closing of the strait or even just the mucking up of the strait is that you can't plan against that. An example I'd give is the Qataris. They're not resuming their LNG production. They're liquefied national gas production.

19:55And part because they're just worried about it getting hit again. They're worried about, well, if we resume all these, we start drilling in the field that's resumed. The gas field, can we get that stuff out? And so, this is like a band-aid that is slowing the bleeding, but it's still the problem. I think only for oil and gas. Because a lot of ships that Senkhaam is not going to protect. Yes, yeah. They do the standard ship. Trump only cares about oil and gas. And then, to your point, the big question is this post-mitterms question where it's the same two paths that are available for Trump. Like, he can either just start bombing them again because he wants to try to win the war that he's kind of already lost in many ways that we've discussed. Or he could kind of take the deal that every nose has been the deal, which is where he gets a bunch of money and the strait opens. And there's some nominal nuclear concession that is, you know, maybe the dust is diluted or something like that. That does go in. And that's, you know, part of, I think, what is worrying to me, Tommy, is a lot of this depends on Trump's post-mitterms psychology.

21:00And I was surprised. I was in New York last week around the UN General Assembly. And some of the people I talked to, like, from other countries. I don't know if they listened to Tucker Carlson or what. But there's some people that were, like, seriously concerned about Trump doing this, like, nuclear option, like, quite literally, of, like, nuking mount pickaxe or whatever. Yeah. Like, you know, pickaxe. And while I just dismissed that as insane, and I don't think that will happen, like a Trump who gets humiliated in the midterms and, you know, is getting humiliated by Iran, like, we have to think about the psychology of lame duck Trump. And I hope that's a psychology of a man that just wants to build ballrooms and arches, but not a man who wants to nuk pickaxe mountain. I hope you're right too. But I do think he's sort of the psychology of a man who would like some people to think he might nuk it as leverage. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And, like, Tucker, being worried about that didn't come out of nowhere. It didn't come out. He's clearly hearing something. I still think the most likely outcome is at some point, and who knows when, the same deal that's been on the table is, like, we slink away.

22:06They give us some of the dust. Trump says he got the greatest nuclear deal ever. And Iranians get a bunch of money and yeah, that's it. Everything sucks. NBC reported the two weeks ago in a running increased missile hit a non commissioned commercial ship in the strait and wounded eight Marines. So that puts it, you know, between like 19 dead. Some reporting says more dead up to 22. And then 861 US service members wounded over in Yemen. And we've talked about that conflict. The WHO says 838 people died. 3000 are wounded and 180,000 have been displaced. This is in the fighting against the Houthis. There's also a horrible case of cholera, such as another example of how longer the strikes out the worst the war gets. One of their, like, potentially Iran-related thing. Was this incident at a royal Air Force base in the UK over the weekend? So this is just such a weird story. This RAF base, RAF Fairford in southern England. It's been used by the US Air Force as a forward operating base for a long time. And initially, you remember the, the Brits said no to the US when it comes to using their bases for the war in Iran.

23:09But then he, Kirsta, our reverse course and said defense defensive operations were allowed. So US bombers have been flying out of their district, Iranian defense of bombers. That's the most Kirsta, our thing is around. It's like, I love these military euphemisms too. So the gist of what happened over the weekend is, the early mornings, like Sunday morning, there's a witness called the police and said there was a large group of hooded and masked men operating three vans near the base. The cops came, they arrested five men. They're all British citizens and they're early to mid-20s. They were arrested for suspicion of violating the explosive acts and preparing some sort of terrorist attack. They evacuate the place, airspace gets restricted. Everyone freaks the fuck out. The vans get investigated for explosives. But then, fast forward a couple days, the Wall Street Journal says the vans didn't have any viable explosives. The men are released on bail and under British law, the police say you can hold individual suspected of terrorism for two weeks. So it's kind of notable that these guys were released albeit with restrictions.

24:10Security of the base was already high because of threats. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the new one, not Kirsta, or the new guy. He told people not to speculate. Trump, of course, speculated and then announced that the US had had these guys under few for a long time. And that quote, we know everything about them. And then Marco Rubio went on Fox News Monday night saying the incident, quote, clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor. So some options for what might have happened here. Like, we talked about these hybrid attacks by the Russians. Yeah. Where they just like hire people on telegrams to do a task. They don't tell them who they are. Yeah. What's going on? It could have been the Russians. It could have been the Iranian doing something similar, kind of, witting or unwitting operation. They are, the IRGC is believed to have hired men in the UK to carry anti-Semitic attacks, for example, so it could be a continuation of that. Or the economist says, apparently in this area, people steal fuel all the time. So these guys could have been just like stealing gasoline from this base or something. We don't know. I guess we'll find out. I don't really trust Trump or Rubio to tell us the truth. I trust Burnham's government. But Ben, when you think about, when you read about this and kind of speculate on what happened, how much tin foil are we putting around our heads at this point?

25:16Are we going to whole roll half? I mean, we're only doing a half because of the way the British authorities are treating this. I mean, they're releasing these guys on bail. I do think that the couple of things that bear watching are where the tin foil hat would lead. Like one, the Russians, they are, as we've talked about, ramping up these sabotage attacks. I mean, just today, the Estonian government announced that the Russians had, you know, undergone a sabotage attack on the longer border, raising concerns that they were like trying to disable, like border defenses to maybe do some incursion. The UK has been on their list. I mean, the UK, they have said, is one of the countries that could be in the crosshairs of their reprisal attacks for what's happening inside of Russia. You know, some people have died in the UK at the hands of the Russians before. So that's just one more worrying concern that that's, you know, that's even plausible.

26:23But the Russians, what we've not seen them do, it's interesting, like their reaction in their escalation in this war has almost entirely been in the region. It's been hitting the Gulf countries, hitting Jordan, like, you know, hitting Israel. Remember all the good sort of like sleeper cells or Western countries? It's the dog that hasn't barked, you know, and so that's another reason. Because actually, frankly, if the Iranians really wanted to do that, I think they probably could. I mean, maybe not a military base, but if they wanted to have like a terrorist attacks, we've seen in the past his bullet do that. You know, they've had attacks in Europe, they've had attacks in Asia. So, you know, it is plausible, but it's just not yet something we see in the Iranians do. It's a reminder though that if the war continues to drag on or if Trump escalates in some fashion, that is something available to them. Although this would be a pretty, you know, ambitious operation, attacking a military base.

27:24And yeah, like dudes trying to still fuel, feels probably the most plausible because guess what, it feels really expensive. Yeah, it's also, if you feel like a secret IRGC sleeper cell, you're gonna have like three white vans parked all together. I think they're obstacles. They're obstacles, but yeah, maybe it's a reassuring that the, you know, it's key stuff. Or it could be like one of those cases in the US where like the FBI recruits on 18 year old guy, like gives them an inert ID and has them planted at a parade, then it ounces a big terrorism bust. Yeah, or there, yeah, or I guess the fourth scenario is they're just very like fly by night shitty terrorists, you know, like a bunch of pissed off brits. They don't like the US foreign policy. Right. That's very possible to you. Yeah, it's possible. Yeah. We'll find out, I guess. All right. Today we wanted to spend some time on a very important, but I think chronically undercovered story in the Western media, which is the conflict in Ethiopia. And the potential for it to spill out into the Horn of Africa. And I should say at the top that I spent a ton of time on this the last couple of days, it is one of the most complicated subjects I've ever like dug deep into for this show,

28:31because there's so many different militias and political factions and ethnic groups and external factors involved. And a lot of them have confusing acronyms and names and they rebrand and they switch sides. So we're not going to go into all the details. But we wanted to explain why this matters and why listeners should care because the short version is that Ethiopia could be on a cusp of re-igniting a civil war that just a few years ago led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. And then though we could see this conflict bleed over or merge with the war in Sudan, which is the currently the worst humanitarian conflict in the world. And also it's on the border of Somalia, where there has just been chronic decades long instability and terrorism. So that's like the scale of the challenge. And just for background, Ethiopia is a country of 130 million people. It's like long and quite proud history that goes back centuries. It was one of the only countries in the global self never to be colonized. Christians and Muslims were living side by side for centuries. It is home to the African Union. It carries a lot of geopolitical weight, but it is never net.

29:34It's an economic potential in part because of conflict and stability. And the most recent civil war that we covered a bunch over the last few years been. It went from basically like our election night 2020 through November 2022. The death toll is estimated between several hundred thousand and up to 600,000 people. It's hard to get information out of the areas. No one really knows. That 2022 peace agreement that froze the fighting was a very important and well executed piece of diplomatic work by the Biden administration. What implementing the deal required ongoing diplomacy that never materialized. And also funding that Elon Musk doged. Like they were trying to like disarm these militia groups that requires money. He's got to pay these guys pensions when they lose their day job of fighting and that money went away. So now there's concern that the country is on the precipice of another conflict between the Ethiopian government. And a group called the Tigrayan people's liberation front or TPLF. Excuse a little more backstory here just because again it's worth understanding.

30:34So the roots of the conflict in the 70s and 90s that Ethiopia was ruled by this socialist military junta. The main ethnic groups in Ethiopia of Ethiopia over through the junta the 90s. That led to the creation of aritria, a very weird country that we can talk about. And this government structure in Ethiopia where essentially these three main ethnic groups. The Oramos, the Aparas and the Turayans were given some like regional autonomy. Fast forward to 2018, Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister. He thinks that Ethiopia's regional factionalism in this power sharing is holding the country back. So he undertakes this project to create a more unified country and a national government that is stronger. Which is not inherently bad as a vision. But in practice he exploits and exacerbates these regional tensions to implement that vision. And his actions lead to both real and perceived sense among some of these groups that they were losing. They were like political losers, especially the Tigrayans or the TPLF because they were in charge before Abiy was elected.

31:35Then they lost their status. They came to the northern Tigray region. And so they were, you know, they lost their power, but also they were concerned about the setup going forward because they just felt like they were going to be treated unfairly. So those are the kind of internal issues. Then there's a whole bucket of external factors and challenges that I want to get into. But I want to pause there and let you get a fucking word in here. So I want to talk about just kind of like the past six years and sort of the internal dynamics within Ethiopia and the scale of this conflict here. Well, yeah, I mean, it's in your right to point out that this was a good piece of diplomacy by the Biden administration, right? You know, who we've been hard on about other things. But the reality is I highlight like the international piece in an Ethiopian piece and then some of these risks. And on the international side, you're absolutely right. Like it's not it's both the dozing of USAID. But it's also kind of the perfect storm of something that would normally have a lot of people working to avert this from happening.

32:37You get a fragile ceasefire and normally you'd have USAID providing the kind of funding you talk about. US diplomats showing up a lot. You know, there'd be some envoy for this. The state department really be working this is kind of thing that when people talk about it's interesting when people talk about the kind of dismantling the state department and the Exodus of experts, which is all true. You know, sometimes people think about like Ukraine or actually these issues almost suffer more because these are the issues that are usually really handed over to the experts right far in service. People with decades of experience in the Horn of Africa. I can promise you that most of those people are gone because they don't want to work for Trump or because they got you know many dozed remember rubio fired a bunch of people. And so that hurts and then lastly again, the UN system. This is like a classic issue where the UN Security Council, the UN system, international, you know, whether it's peacekeeping or post conflict, resourcing.

33:38All of that stuff like is not working anymore because just nobody's paying attention to it. Nobody's resourcing it. Nobody wants to pick up the ball and run with it. And so if you if you take the absence of USAID, the absence of US diplomacy, frankly, even other kinds of diplomacy because everybody's focused on Iran or Sudan or like this thing starts to fester and there's no UN structure around it. So then inside of Ethiopia, like you have a situation where the TPLF and Tigray, as you said, these people ran Ethiopia like for 30 years. That's okay. I mean, when I was there, I remember going to Odess and with Obama in like 2015, like, you know, they weren't charged. And so they lost all their power. And then they're in this like I'm shrinking island. And what's interesting here is, you know, Abiy Ahmed, you know, he won the Nobel Peace Prize, which is amazing because he made this piece deal with the Latria. And part because he was, you know, it turned out he wanted to isolate these guys.

34:38Now what they did in the vacuum is they kind of went around and made some allies in the area, like these are other groups, I mean, just a further complicated other groups that it had beef with the government, but also had beef with the TPLF. And they kind of, you know, built their own little tag team. It's not clear like who kind of resumed this fighting. Yeah, the seven armed groups announced a coalition and announced that they were going to take down the government. Most of the fighting so far has been in the North, but it's not clear they have the capacity to do any of the things they announced from this, necessarily. Yeah, they, and, but you know, provocative to announce that. Yes, for sure. So, so, so you have these people who are kind of like you're fighting to kind of reclaim some powers and autonomy, you know, maybe a top of the government, I think that's a pretty tall task. And, and, and you're just looking at this and it's it's like not like a problem with an obvious solution unless there's like heavy mediation that can come in because, you know, I think very few people think left to their own devices, the Ethiopian government and the TPLF and these other armed groups can reach some agreement. It's going to take external actors.

35:38Yeah, and just to get to the external actors and the way this has become or could become even more of a proxy war, just worth like sort of touching on like. So, Eritrea and Ethiopia, they fight a brutal civil war in the late 90s. As you mentioned, Abiyame got the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for signing this piece of agreement with the Eritreans, but then he allies with the Eritreans to take out the TPLF or the Tigranes, but now the Ethiopian government thinks that Eritrea is helping the TPLF. So, their old enemy is now their new enemy. But there's the Emirates show up in all the worst conflict zones, Ben. So, you have they act like arsonists in this part of Africa, they are selling the Ethiopians weapons and drones. I believe the Turks are selling drones, the Ethiopians as well. Also though, we've talked about Sudan a lot and how the UAE is providing the RSF, which is one of the militia groups fighting the Sudanese government as part of that civil war. Sudan believes that the RSF, or maybe even the Emirates on the behalf of our flying drones, from bases in Ethiopia, bombing targets in Cartoum and then flying back.

36:39They also think that the UAE is shipping weapons to the RSF via Ethiopia, and that there's RSF training camps on Ethiopian soil, so the Emirates are backing funding arming a lot of this. Then there's Egypt. Ethiopia and Egypt have a longstanding dispute over water access and this massive hydroelectric dam or power plant that the Ethiopians built on the Nile River. It's one of the wars Trump says he solved, by the way. Never was a war, it hasn't solved it. There's a lot of analysts, so that's a huge flashpoint in point of tension. There's also a lot of analysts who think that the Egyptians want a weaker Ethiopia, so they just sturch it up to weaken them. Then there's Somalia. Ethiopia is landlocked. There's basically two ways that Abiyahmet could get access to the sea. One is by taking Eritrea. The other is by recognizing Somali lands as an independent country. He's floored it with that outcome. It kind of walked it back because it pissed off all the other countries. That's Israel.

37:41That's Israel's own country. Those are all the regional factors. There's just this internal conflict in Ethiopia surrounded by external tensions and conflicts. To your point about the diplomacy, the person I think who was in charge of this is Masad Bulos. Tiffany Trump's fucking husband's dad. The fake billionaire was he like a car salesman or something? The diplomatic piece that's so frustrating is over and over and over again. Everything that Jared and Midgoth passed on they give this guy. Quite literally. That's what his job is. Again, with Sudan, with this conflict, it feels like a really important piece of this is putting pressure on the Emirates to stop funding all these places. It's always like 20th on the tutu list for the Biden administration and for the Trump administration. Apparently the U.S. ambassador, one of the ambassadors in the region put out a statement that sided with Ethiopia and attacked the TPLF, which is like on some levels understandable. But if you want to be an honest broker, that's not going to work.

38:42And then we just need to put pressure on the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Emirates to stop fucking around. And also Trump, I guess, just got rid of sanctions on Eritrea. He just let them lapse. So I'm not sure why, but it just feels like not only is there no real diplomatic effort, but we're kind of maybe making things worse. Yeah, a bit of like a bowl in the China shop where stuff is already breaking. And yeah, because what should happen, right? In addition to kind of the U.S. role that we talked about over the potential, you enrol like the African Union. The African Union's actually made some constructive statements. So that's kind of a grouping of African countries. It can come in immediate disputes. They actually have familiarity with this conflict. But, awkward for them since they're based in in in obviously, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. They're in a Chinese built building quite literally, not a sabote. But the, I guess one way to communicate this to people is like, what's the concern here? Well, number one, there's a massive humanitarian concern. Like hundreds of thousands of people have died.

39:45Like this resumes, you know, we've had issues with fame and we've had issues with like mass-segling deaths. And so that should be enough to care about it. I think beyond that, if you just look at this region, right? I mean, this is, this is right across like the Red Sea from Yemen, you know, like there's just war everywhere. Like Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea. All the shipping for the Bobble Monde Straits. All the shipping. Yeah, yeah. And my concern is like the Emirates in particular, but you could also kind of lay this in some of the other regional actors, the Saudis. There's this kind of doctrine now of just kind of funding these proxies constantly, you know. And creating like chaos and violence as kind of this weird means of pushing the instability out, you know. And at a certain point, when there's so much of that activity taking place, you know, we talk about like World War. Like these conflicts just like the worst case scenario is that they all just kind of start to blend together.

40:51Because that's art. If you think that's alarmist, like that's already happened. Like the war in Yemen is clearly tied to the war in Iran, which is clearly tied to some extent to kind of Israel's post-October 7th response. And then suddenly this war is somehow attached to that and the Emirates are in Sudan. I mean, again, like picture this whole region just kind of descending into different groups and proxy groups. And that's why you're right. Like as with the case in Sudan, you have to go to the people that are fomenting some of this and providing some of these arms. There's also concerns like Eritrea, like I know some Eritreans too, like men. They've had the same fucking dictators since like the early 90s. Yeah, for folks who don't know, it's often referred to as the North Korea of Africa because it is this military police state. You can be conscripted for like literally decades into the military. There is like no if there's no freedom of speech. Like the I don't think they have a constitution that has actually been working for decades.

41:51Yeah, I think their parliament's met since like the early 2000s. Yeah, they said this old guy. Yeah. The 80 year old guy who just survives by because his people hate him. He survives on this proxy, you know, like just, you know, for hires. Yeah, he likes to fuck around with the country. Yeah, just fuck around with other countries. But the other piece that one more thing to be concerned about too is that there have been like pretty significant refugee flows into Europe from Eritrea because people are desperate. And we know that those refugee flows then ferment far right back lashes. You know, all this stuff is connected, you know. And so you would like to think that someone can step in here or that Abiy Ahmed can, you know, figure out some way to make a deal. But we should watch this. We spent a lot of time on this in 21 and 22 because if this tips over into full scale fighting like in this environment, which is much worse environment than even 21 and 22, this could become a major regional conflagration. Yeah, the environment is worse in this time. It could be an out and out conflict between two nation states, not just Abiy Ahmed versus like the TPLF in the North.

42:53It could be Eritrea versus Ethiopia, like two really well armed militaries going at full scale war. Who fought in the past? You fought in the past. And like, you know, if I were pitching, you know, briefing Trump on this on why he should care. It's like, sir, even if you don't care about a single Ethiopian line, you got to sit down. And you should care because by the way, this is one of those wars where very little reporting came out, but eventually when it did like the atrocities were just like unspeakable, the sexual violence. But if Trump cares about migration flows at the instability, like after the Syrian conflict, for example, imagine like a hundred or 50 million Ethiopians are like fleeing a conflict. Yeah, yeah, just flowing across the world. Right. So to destabilize the region, Europe, other countries. This is one where, you know, you really need mediation and you're looking at it at the world and you're thinking like who's the mediator? Who's going to do it? I mean, like again, African Union, I mean, like you want some regional buy in here, but a part of that though is that, sorry to, I remember, you know, when we were in government, it was kind of like, you know, the US require to get together like Kenya and other, you know,

44:01like it takes some, some doing to kind of create the regional groupings that can form a solution. And there's just kind of nobody calling the play. And so every nation is making its own hedges. And that's how you get these proxy wars. And that's a recipe for actually the bad. Right. The former president Nigeria is the AU's designated envoy, but like he can't do this by himself. No, exactly. They're going to be like low level shuttle diplomacy. But you need like senior leader levels to be able to go to the Emirates, the Saudis, the Egyptians and say, stop. And resources to say, like you said, like, well, pay salaries or will, you know, we'll try to reconstruction assistance and Tigray. I mean, just that stuff is just not existing right now. Yeah. By the way, thank you to Peter Coronto, who worked on these issues at the end of see for Biden and talked to me about this morning and also Leslie and Warner, who wrote a great background briefing for just security. Those were useful and also jumped on the phone and also the crisis group did a great paper on this. By the way, people ask us to mention recommendations. We've mentioned crisis group just securities, a great resource. People are going to the website. All things international law, international kind of war law war, like check it out.

45:09Ben, as you know, election day is coming up, taking back Congress is going to come down to just a few competitive seats. So our buddies at Votersave America, they're launching a new thing. It's called their action clubs. They are based on kind of the latest tactics and tools that we think it can help make a difference. One is called club digi where you're going to boost helpful information online and get the social media algorithms working to push that out and get it to more people. Then there's club Votersave where you get trained on your rights and how to keep other voters safe and formed as they cast their ballots. And then finally club relational where you learn about one of the two most important organizing tactics of this area, which is talking to people in your life and making sure they have a plan to vote. Go to VotersaveAmerica.com to get started now. Bring some friends with you. This message has been paid for by Votersave America. It is not authorized by any candidate or candidate. It's committee. And one more thing if you're planning to join us at CricketCon, especially if you're a friend of the pod. Remember early bird pricing ends on October 6th. Head to CricketCon.com to get your tickets and lock in the discounted rate now.

46:15Potta the world is brought to you by three day blinds. We have three day blinds here in our conference room at Cricket Media. And I have to say we love them. There was a period of time when meetings at a certain hour meant you couldn't sit on one side of the room because it was basically blinding even through our old s*** blinds. Now we have the new three day blinds. They're great. They actually work. They block the sun. They look good. They were installed really fast. And I just can't say enough about them. They make us happy. There's a better way to buy blinds, shades and shutters and draperies called three day blinds. They are the leading manufacturer of high quality custom window treatments in the US. And right now if you use my URL three day blinds.com slash world, they are running a buy one get one 50% off deal. We can shop for almost anything at home. Why not blinds three day blinds has local professionally trained consultants who have an average of 10 or more years of experience. They provide expert guidance on the right blinds for you and the comfort of your home. Just set up an appointment and you'll get a free no obligation quote the same day. DIY projects can be fun, but measuring and installing blinds can be a big challenge. The expert team at three day blinds handles all the heavy lifting. They design, measure and install. So you can sit back, relax and leave it to the pros.

47:24Right now get quality window treatments that fit your budget with three day blinds head to three day blinds.com slash world for their buy one get one 50% off deal on custom blinds shades and draperies for a free no charge, no obligation consultation just head to three day blinds.com slash world. One last time that's buy one get one 50% off when you head to the number three D.A.Y. blinds.com slash world. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Mental health is top of mind for a lot of us these days and for good reason. If there's a persistent problem preventing you from reaching your goals or just living your life therapy can be extremely impactful. BetterHelp therapists have at least three years and 1000 hours of hands-on experience. They also hold all the required education training and certifications across a range of mental health specialties. BetterHelp makes it easy to get started. You just answer a few questions, get matched with a therapist based on your needs and switch therapists at any time if not the right fit. Better is a feeling defined by you and for BetterHelp it's a better help therapist who really gets you. It's a focus on global emotional well-being. With thousands of therapists and millions of members in over 100 countries it's progress.

48:30Look you all need a therapist there's a lot going on in the world things are scary. We got computers hacking other computers now people are talking about p-dooms and sh** like that. You need a therapist. You need someone to talk to whether it's about that stuff or just what's going on in your house what's going on at work. It's worth it. It'll make you feel better. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com slash crooked world. That's better HELP.com slash crooked world. Let's talk about another massive scandal this involving soccer Ben but has global ramifications. Folks might have heard of Manchester City English Premier League team. They have been found guilty on all of these charges that were alleged against them that they broke the Premier League's financial regulation rules. The Premier League CEO said quote that Manchester City systematically broke Premier League rules for nearly a decade. And the reason this matters for this show for Potsy of the World is because Man City is owned by an organization that's run by the deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates. There's the UAE again.

49:36And it will have implications for the UAE specifically for soccer and for foreign ownership of teams in all the leagues. But first Ben, here are some people with British accents explaining the details which just sounds better from them. The Premier League has put out a statement in relation to Manchester City and it's mind boggling. It's absolutely incredible. They're basically saying that Manchester City have been found guilty of all charges related to breaches of Premier League financial rules between the United States and the United States. They've been basically accused of sham sponsorship, image rights and other arrangements in Flaten revenue by more than 900 million pounds. Here and can you as simply as possible because I'm pretty sure most people listening will know just run through what they've been found guilty or what we know they've been found guilty of three things. First of all, disguising money from the owner and pretending that it's sponsorship money. So that's artificially inflating your revenue.

50:41Secondly, paying people off book which suppresses your costs, both of those go into your PSR calculations and thirdly not complying with the Premier League investigation into their finances. So that was from a podcast called That's Football and then the Guardians Football Weekly Podcast. We're getting a glimpse into your library. Roger Bennett and Roy Smith over at Ben and Blazers. They actually did an excellent breakdown of all the details that folks should listen to if they want to go deeper. And also I'm going to steal liberally from them here so that I can sound smart. I just want to say that the public toilet kind of got scooped on this one. Well, something he could have found out. So very well said because like the as those guys like aspiration sensing the clipper steal. Okay, that's why I want to talk to you about this because I know you love this. The main bucket's again, it's like they created these fake sponsorship deals to disguise the amount that they were the club was spending the nancy. The nancy was spending so the way the old rules of the Premier League and you wafer basically said you capped the amount of losses you could have. So you couldn't just like spend yourself into a hole to lose because others you couldn't afford to do that.

51:42So what the owners of the man city did is they had like an Emirati airline pretend to be a sponsor of the club to falsely inflate their revenue so they could spend more money on paper. But really it was just the owners pumping more money was pumping their own money into their own club. Second, they paid players off the books, which like you mentioned with public. This is the quiet Leonard classic clipper situation that's pretty familiar. And then also they just refused to participate in the investigation, which just makes it seem like it's going to be hard for the league not to come down on them pretty hard because if you flagrantly like break the laws for a decade and then you say piss off when they try to investigate it like they seem like they have to punish you. And just again for those who don't fall soccer that cheating really really helps man city one eight Premier League titles for F a league cups and one Champions League under the current Emirati ownership. Man city says they're innocent. They said they're going to appeal. No penalties have been announced and they have maybe not have been decided. But the process has been going on for years. It could go on for years longer. The punishment could range from fines to point deductions to relegation or expulsion from the Premier League and then there's even more complicated question of like do you strip away the titles from man city in those years and award them to other clubs.

52:55And if they do that, could they open man city up to legal liability because imagine Europe, Europe Premier League club. You didn't make the Champions League one year because man city beat you out. If you make the Champions League, you get tons of revenue from TV rights and sponsorships and all this other shit. Could you then sue man city because I think that happened to another club called Everton in the similar situation. And so zooming out for us though, I think the interesting thing is you have this collision of like state owned entities and sports leagues. And the reality that the rules were just not built to play at this level and to have organizations with unlimited money. And where the ownership's goals aren't just winning or making a profit. It's like sports washing, soft power, reputation. It's just like a it's a fascinating question. There's a lot of overlapping circles here. And so I'll bring my gun. I'm not as big of a soccer fan as you. Although I what does this mean for early in Holland's is any unman city. Good question. Because we all fell for those who remember the good old days of the World Cup. Remember we all fell in with early Holland. It would suck if he's like somehow fucked by this.

54:01There was a hilarious AI video of a fake Kim talking about all the clubs he was going to beat this year. And they were like tier two and three clubs. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Actually, that'd be kind of funny if he's like relegating the block. But put that aside. Yeah. So first of all, like this points to like, you know, obviously massive corruption. It does make I have a few questions about Tommy like one is part of me kind of wonders. And I don't I say there was no knowledge, but you kind of feel with soccer. Like if you pointed the camera really closely at a lot of places, you'd find, you know, corruption. Certainly FIFA. Yeah, exactly. And so is this the beginning of people start pulling these threads in other places? What are they going to find which by the way is another, you know, the NBA is a whole other question as to whether there's similar things happening there. The other questions that are really interesting though. Do you like the British economy? Because we talked about like Boris Johnson, you know, one point like thinking about whether to get involved in blocking ownership of, but there's been this kind of implicit deal where they kind of first was the Russian oligarchs, but then a lot of these golf, you know, oligarchs come in and they just pour money into the British economy through sports, through other investments through real estate.

55:22And clearly this what this shows is that some of that money and this is kind of open secret of London, you know, is kind of not following the same rules that, you know, back when these, these franchises didn't cost as much and like the massive money coming in comes with massive corruption at times. And if you start cracking down on that, that will lead to like less corrupt outcomes, but actually it could be damaging to the like the to London to the British economy, you know, that scale of money. And this is a big question for all of us today is like, you know, turning off these spigots and starting to hold these people accountable, you know, we'll have some economic impact. That leads me to the kind of future like version of this, because this is obviously something I had to do in the past, the valuations of sports franchises are going through the roof, like you're not talked about this offline. And part of what you see, Tommy, like some of this AI money starting to go into sports, a lot of venture capital like our annuals getting into live events, because as AI like starts taking out other entertainment, live events, like sports in particular.

56:35Is going to become more valuable. Jared Kushner's brother set up an entire like investment entity to invest in this kind of stuff because they felt it was AI proof that was behind this whole attempt to like the privatize the FIFA. Yeah, actually think this raises fastening dilemmas because what we've seen is in a cash poor world, the cash rich people are the most corrupt people. It's like, you know, whether it's in the Gulf or with Russia, whether it's our American oligarchs, or just as corrupt. I'm not picking on the Gulf here. And so I think sports is going to have to really get its arms around this or else it's just going to get drowned in this money, which clue is happening the Premier League and other places. Yeah, to your point about like boy, don't look too close here. You won't like what you'll see. The Saudis bought a new castle united and the league was willing to go along with the fiction that the Saudi government wouldn't be running the team because it was going to be run by the Saudi foreign wealth fund or owned and operated by the Saudi foreign sovereign wealth fund.

57:37The chairman of that fund is crown prince mom and that's all. Yeah, yeah. And that's what are we doing? That's exactly the one that I think Boris Johnson kind of thought about messing with. But again, we don't have to dwell on this, but I think this is a really important topic for us to think about because sports used to be about kind of like community, like the local rich guy on the team. Riches guy and Pittsburgh bought the steel. What does it mean for sports? Because this is going to come the US because at a certain point these franchises become survival. Yeah, that they're going to need golf sovereign wealth fund. Private equity or golf money. Yeah, yeah. It's the only one is going to be able to afford them. It's really important and like a brewing question. And also like for all the other owners, like, you know, these giant rich guys come in, they overpay, it props up the valuation of all the other teams. So they're benefiting on some level, but eventually that yeah, it's going to be unsustainable. Two more things. So we just want to walk you guys through some of the big developments in tech and AI news. I don't know if you saw Ben right before we started recording Trump came out of this lunch with all the big AI company leaders. He did like an impromptu press conference at the sticks out in the in the driveway. I think what happened was he literally saw speaker Johnson and all the tech guys doing a press avail.

58:41He saw it on TV. So he walked his ass out to the front of the white house to like do his own. So if you want to see what the like oligarchy looks like, there it is. In tech news, open AI paused its latest model. He's scrapped it the GPT 6.1 Astra because it was lying all the time. It was deceiving us all the time. So that's great news in the wake of the other model, you know, hacking website called hugging face. We also learned that an open AI model hacked an Australian government health care website open AI described it as quote an open AI model discovered a way to gain non public access to the service and ran commands retrieved internal files credentials and aggregate statistics and wrote files. However, individual patient or client records were not accessed. But also they did a terrible job and were very slow in notifying the Australian government. God help us if this happens with the Chinese government, right. And then there were a lot of other. There's tons of other coverage of all these other open AI incidents. There's also reports been that the US and the Russians work together to weaken guardrails around deadly autonomous weapons. So like that's a collaborative in that.

59:43Yeah. So I know there's like a million different stories we could talk about. I'm just wondering kind of like what's your temp check on AI these days. My temp check is like through the roof. I hadn't plugged my sub stack in a while. I wrote like a pretty detailed sub stack about my AI alarmism after a week at the UN General Assembly last week that was dominated by AI discussions. That was kind of the hallway conversation everywhere. So check that out. It's on the stories you tell to quick summary of my anxieties. There's so many. I think one way to think about this is it is now apparent that whether we can debate how far we are from a GI, you know, super intelligence, recursive self improvement, all these things you hear. What is clear is that these models are beginning to act in ways that the people who are creating them don't understand and that are evading human control. Right. And like that is that is the thing that is like always been the most alarming. Whether you're talking about, you know, species extinction and the robots killing us or you're just talking about some things we've discussed offensive cyber attacks that cause like a geopolitical conflict or cause significant loss of value.

1:00:54Often sub attacks that have some impact on society like a grid goes down or you know an aviation system is is imperiled autonomous weapons that are beginning to make their own targeting decisions, which we've seen in the Russians begin to use a new crane and civilians have died because of that. Like this is the scenarios that people, you know, two or three years ago would say like, well, this would be bad if this started to happen. Those scenarios are beginning to happen now, right. And at the precise time that that is happening, we had two events they were dedicated to examining whether AI should be regulated, put aside Daria Amade andthropy CEO periodically telling us he needs to be regulated and yet he keeps building. Building right. One was the all in pod summit, which you know happened a couple weeks ago, where like literally because David sacks is like the AIs are and profiting enormously off of this something that Democrats should look into if they take back to Congress.

1:01:56And you have all these people kind of coming through to say no, no, no, like Jensen Wong, you know, the sea of Nvidia, like let's keep going with this is you know the risks are overblown. Well, maybe that's cause Nvidia makes the chips that make the compute power that depend on risk kind of you know so and then you have Trump at the UN say he's not going to regulate. And in fact, he's just going to rebrand its super intelligence now again, like what should be happening in normal world is the US regulating these models. So, I think that's the thing that's interesting is that there's a government testing regime before they're released into the world that there's efforts to shut off certain AI development that's dangerous that their prohibitions on AI doing certain things like you know around bio weapons around I would argue autonomous targeting decisions like that nature. And like that's just not happening. It's not happening in the US and that's what we should be talking about to go back to the Chinese summit.

1:02:56And the thing that they've really said is that like Scott Bessent, who what the fuck does that guy know about AI nothing like is just going to be talking to his counterpart about this and they said about hotline like is 1965. Yeah, if that like a dedicated piece of wire from the US to Beijing like this is that's not how this system should work. Yeah, and I sense and I understand this. I don't know Tommy. What do you think like in your own conversations with people and frankly probably in the how content does. In the same way that climate like people are kind of not tune in like like we've seen it here a quick media like people. If you give people what they want they don't want climate content because it's too crushing press and well this one I think we can't afford to tune out because the only thing that is going to compel these oligarchs and these you know our government to do something is the swing and public opinion the data center backlash has been constructive it's gotten politicians attention. This is not a sustainable path Iran because it's a path in which there will be a catastrophic incident and then there'll be like a demand that you like nationalize these labs.

1:03:57But I'd rather not go through the catastrophic incident. Yeah same here I'm like I've got a full doomer but I'm not pretty anxious. I'm anxious yeah what we're reading I'm not a full doomer I'm very anxious I mean just because of what the people who know the most about these technologies are saying and I also think like. It is greatly compounded by the experience of social media in the last decade with a lot of these same people in charge Mark Zuckerberg you want us Sam Altman they are greedy selfish people. I do not trust them to do the right thing I also we also know that they fundamentally even the smartest people in these companies the geniuses they don't understand the technology that they're building really exactly how it works. And so how are you going to build safeguards or tests or ways to constrain something that you fundamentally don't understand that is fundamentally kind of random in some sense. And Trump is a sleep at the switch or he's paid off or just wants to stock market up and there is this like you're right this debate about like we talked about this on PSA a little bit like is this a normal technology where you can kind of just like engineer your way through the problem or is it not normal it's new.

1:04:58And I'm just leaning towards the latter and it feels like these guys are going to need to do like novel science to figure out what is happening here how to control it whether or not it's safe and if so how to keep us all safe. And we are racing forward as fast as humanly possible for no good reason with no upside for any of us except for the companies that are trying to IPO and that is making me very angry yeah you know you keep hearing about how anxious people are these companies but these people are also making like God. And we can also making like gobs of money at the same time and and look that we get we will revisit this because there's too much to talk about. I will say that the China excuses when it's used look China has this technology they're going to have this technology so if you're worried about China it's not just like a foot race it's putting guard rails on it with the Chinese by the way also one of the ways that Chinese advance especially because they have less computing power is they just distilled our models you know so like and Therapeutic or open I really small or you know fucking Mark Zuckerberg open sources llama the metamodel and they just kind of reverse engineered so if we stop.

1:06:04Well that's going to you know it's harder for the race ahead so just to like this China thing is is I think overblown if anything the China thing compels regulation and negotiation the Chinese not like just rushing. I'm so tired of that excuse it's so unconvincing yeah the amount of damage we've done to ourselves as a society through our own decisions over the last few decades like we don't need the Chinese to fuck us up we do it ourselves yeah. Finally I agree we should come back to this again next week finally been so later subjects to end good. Trump 2.0 they either have failed to name ambassadors to like most a lot of positions I think like 50% or they have named some of the dumbest most corrupt vinyl people possible we have had fun on this show making fun of the list of Gingrich new king riches spouse who is ambassador to both Switzerland and lichtenstein but it gets way worse than like the weird video she's putting out. We got Jared Kushner's criminal dad is the US ambassador to France Mike Huckabee is like the zealot Trump put in Israel carry lake was nominated for a post in Jamaica because that makes sense.

1:07:09And the Washington Post reported that 90% of Trump's ambassador nominations have gone to political supporters rather than career diplomats back to the point you're making about Ethiopia. So we also don't have ambassadors in Germany Russia or Saudi Arabia. I'm important. So I just want to tell you a couple examples about some ambassadors and how they're performing. We've got Kushner Kushner. Oh you got my Charles Charles my guy at the top I missed it. I was like no no I was checking I was checking up something I'm going to you're a jerk. You're you're you want to know you're finding knowledge. I want to tell you some examples of how some of these guys are performing guys in gals. And then you can rank the selection on a scale of good choice, great choice to finally Mr. Trump sir I literally couldn't have picked anyone better if I had all the time and resources in the world sir. First one you mentioned him Charles Kushner did you know that he has been summoned twice by Francis foreign affairs ministry and reprimanded for interfering in French eternal affairs. And both times he's just ignored the request and refused to show up. Yeah, I did not know that until today.

1:08:10I did know how does that work. I mean because he just doesn't give a fuck and in normal times. I mean here's how that works in normal times. That would cause a huge problem back in Washington. And the president or the secretary of state would be like what the fuck are you doing. But Trump doesn't give a shit it's Charles Kushner it's Jared's dad. And so like it's like everything else is Trump like the norms would be we better recall that ambassador or that ambassador better go in and talk to you know the French. You know farm ministry or McCrones office. But because he has cover of you know Donald Trump like you just can fucking ignore it. Remember didn't Cory Booker vote to confirm Charles Kushner he did it's another reason I'm just I'm not just ever going to be on the Cory Booker train terrible choice sir. Yeah the Wall Street Journal meant the you mentioned that this at the top they did a long piece on our US ambassador degrees Kimberly Gilfoil Don Jr. X Gavin Newsom's X Fox News host. It talks about her relationship with this young lobbyist for this Greek construction company.

1:09:11There's clearly like a subtext. Yeah maybe a romantic relationship. It's very weird. But like the malfeasance is all the way she's steering contracts to this one company. And in a way that just feels illegal. Then also there's the part where Kimberly reportedly threatened to collapse the Greek government during a shouting match with Greece's energy minister. Good job or great job. Here's the thing you you have to bear in mind first of all I love the Greeks. And the Greeks have a history of the US doing this like there was a coup. There was literally like a right wing government. In Greece. Short handed the regime of the kernels. Now that is never a good thing right you never want you never want the regime of the kernels a low level in the late 60s like the US like and you know. It was always debated how much we were behind it but like you know the certainly the Greeks believe we're bonded so she's not only doing this.

1:10:12In a European country in a NATO ally but she's also doing in a country with like a pretty recent historical memory the US fucking round. So which I'm sure she's totally unaware of but because she wants to keep the gravy train going to her subtextual you friend like what she's going to Kimberly go for I can never pronounce her name is going to like collapse the Greek government not I mean. I guess there's no other ambassadors in the region so she's playing this outsize role in like nested with the Romanian and Macedonia I don't know what she's. Like look the bottom line is. This is the perfect Trump best so sir I couldn't pick the better choice this is like the perfect manifestation of how little of a shit down Trump cares about anybody else remember her insane 2020 convention speech when she ended by just shouting into the void because there's literally outside with Noah crowd yeah what her exact quote was but maybe we could drop it in here it was fun let's drop it in because I remember that is the covert convention. Yes yes ladies and gentlemen leaders and fighters for freedom and liberty and the American dream the best is yet to come over in Italy neighboring Italy that's a thing that happened.

1:11:19Yeah thing that happened Tillman J for titta I think it's this person's Amy's Trump's richest ambassador I think he's worth 11 billion. He is doing like a summer like listening tour and meeting people on his super yet which just feels very in touch with the kind of economic moment to just drive around on a super yacht and I guess live off it and then do events on it. That's a sweet. I didn't know that that that. I mean it's perfect right I mean these are all perfect ambassadors for Trump I will say you know people could what about us that like we had donor ambassadors in some of these European countries I will say like across administrations like they would usually try to select people. They have like a modicum of class you know or intelligence intelligence like the people people could kind of be at the center of like the kind of political social scene in the in in Rome or wherever they were.

1:12:20This kind of crafts like a fan being everyone a yacht like what's the fucking point by the way to like the cool thing about being ambassadors at coli of Italy yeah yeah we residents you got a sweet residence in your the hub for all this activity in your hosting dinners with like business leaders and politicians and media. Figures and not just like hangout if you want to just hang on your yacht you don't have to be the fucking bastard in the first place go to the Mediterranean and hangout. I'd go and I'd say to Trump I serve if this guy wants to be on the yacht like maybe just said immediately all of the residents like that job in a heartbeat yeah we had a few duds a political nominee is your donors or whatever book I pushed out but then we had some like really great people from business finance politics like Matthew bars and our friend who is like. Went had two different post and was beloved and became this like cultural epicenter we we had we had in Germany we had fill Murphy we can the governor of New Jersey competent dude right John Emerson I mean so you can have good political ambassadors these places that that's not what these people are yeah you got to want the job and then finally Belgium been ambassador bill white picked a huge fight with the Belgian government over who was a lot of performed circumcisions Belgian law says you know you can't do that.

1:13:33Belgian law says you should be a medical professional white called that anti-Semitic these lot of boils are not doctors and made this a big thing so that feels like the thing we should be fighting with the Belgians about yeah this guy I have noticed because he keeps stepping on rakes to like the Belgians are not the easiest people in the world to like piss off I mean that's what like what is this I mean we actually we had a bit of a mini scandal in Belgium ourselves but that's another just Google it. But but yeah like this guy's like what's he doing over there you know like what's the point that's why do you want to spend your time when I look at all this stuff I wonder like what is the I mean actually Kimberly Goyfield I guess we see what her point is you know I'm sure she's probably well lining up the next. Yeah yeah like read the Wall Street Journal piece lots about her trying to set up contracts and companies and who knows how much of that is flowing back her way right cushion or I'm sure it's using that fancy residence in Paris to just do all kind of deals and stuff. This guy what the fuck is he doing he's like carrying out his like anti woke and you know calling people any semi to agenda and Belgium like what's the point just you could do that here fighting about circumstances.

1:14:44Okay that is it for our segment on Trump's incredible ambassadors thank you for listening to the new section of the show but stick around for my conversation with Sam Begerski we're going to talk all about what is happening on the ground in Haiti what the Trump administration is doing how cruel it is and what the international community could or should be doing to try to do it. We're going to try to write the ship to the sent possible so check that out. Pots of the world is brought to you by simply safe when your home is under threat you need more than a recording of a break in you need to prevent it simply safe stops break ins before they start when a burglar steps onto your property AI powered cameras alert live us based agents who take action to deter them and call for police dispatch. Unlike traditional security systems that only alert you after a break in his already underway simply safe is designed to prevent the crime before it starts they have AI powered cameras that detect suspicious activity at the perimeter and alert live us based agents simply safe agents assess the threat they intervene they speak through the camera to scare off the intruders and they call 911 dispatch our CEO Lucinda recently had a simply safe system in

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1:16:53My guest today is Sam Begersky he's an international affairs fellow at the council on foreign relations Sam visited Haiti the summer just before the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to end a temporary protected status for Haitians living in the US he wrote about the escalating gang violence collapsing health care system. And the lack of access to food and any humanitarian support and the impact having on individuals there so very grateful Sam to you for this work in the report you wrote up and for joining us today. Great to be with you Tommy thank you so you were in Haiti in June you said it was your first trip there since you were there as a you and aid worker following the 2010 earthquake I was actually there briefly around the same period of time and I remember. It was like post apocalyptic even then in your piece you wrote quote after the earthquake response 14 years ago I remember thinking Haiti could not get worse but in 2026 it has.

1:17:58Haiti's capital port of print is often described as a like a literal war zone due to the escalating gang violence can you just describe like the security situation on the ground and what does that mean in practice when someone says it's you know Haiti is a war zone in the capital. Yeah I think most Americans would be surprised to hear that 700 miles off the coast of Florida there's an active war zone but when I went to Haiti this summer that's exactly what I found when I went to port of prints. Practically speaking there 26 odd gangs in Haiti and mostly the port of Prince metropolitan area in 2024 they consolidated into a federation of sorts called the Viva on some. They weren't just taxing people in their neighborhoods committing crimes they were actually challenging the state controlling territory and displacing in this point over a million and a half people so what that means as far as a war zone from their standpoint is these gangs are often fighting each other they're fighting the state people are fleeing violence in their neighborhoods they're ending up in shelters.

1:19:05But it also means that the Haitian governments looking for a solution to fight back against them and about a year and a half ago they turned to Eric Prince the former CEO black water to help them put together a secretive police task force that's launching lethal drones towards these gang members and the damage that that has brought to both the gangs and to civilians has been unsparing over the last year and a half would you get on the ground. It feels incredibly tense you see burned out buildings you see husks of cars that have been put into barricades to prevent police and civilians from accessing certain neighborhoods and there's a feeling that something could go wrong really at any moment for aid workers civilians or Haitian authorities. Yeah, I want to ask you about Eric Prince in a minute he's the former CEO of black water for folks who don't know and I sort of feel like it's never a good I get did a send that guy anywhere but you have a chart in your report that shows how you know there was just an explosion of violence not long after the then president of Haiti juvenile moe was assassinated in 2021 why why your view did that incident lead to such an explosion of violence.

1:20:20So the assassination of mouillice is something that reads out of Hollywood plot it actually came together in South Florida through small group of men in early 21 2021. Their goal was to launch a coup d'etat to install one of their own in the presidency in Haiti. They wanted to rig contracts that the government had for infrastructure to enrich themselves. They finance an operation that involved hiring a couple dozen Colombian mercenaries. They've got money from SBA pandemic loans from the US government to do this and in July they stormed his house and assassinated him in 2021. What followed was a crisis of governance there was a actually an earthquake shortly thereafter in the southern part of the country that devastated in an entirely different region. And there was a vacuum that ensued these gangs that had loosely controlled certain parts of the country as I mentioned came together into this federation in the years that followed and really began challenging the state itself.

1:21:23That being their goal was to to run Haiti these gang members and they're led by one guy named barbecue who has a $5 million bounty from the US government on his head. He's the face of the operation but there's a really loose agreement between them sometimes they're cooperating against the state other times are fighting against each other. And really no matter what civilians are caught in the crosshair the government has lost control almost entirely a port of prints at its peak 90% of the city was being controlled by gangs. I mean there's like the parade of terrible things it's just so unrelenting I mean you write that half of Haiti's gang members are now children food itself has become a quote weapon of war sexual violence is pervasive I mean how did the gangs in this gang warfare end up adopting the gang. So many of the most evil practices you hear about warfare these gangs are incredibly strategic and they're now running transnational crime organizations that are importing guns from the United States to fight each other and fight the state.

1:22:29They have consolidated control not to support a prince but of some of these rural areas that are the bread basket of the country so they see their tactics as being a way to enrich themselves and power their affiliates and ways that they're doing that like for example through food as a weapon of war. They're cutting off the suppliers the farmers in these rural areas from their markets so the people whose livelihoods depend on that are collapsing but the people who are going hungry aren't getting food in those neighborhoods and to you know to give you the most extreme example of this in 2023 in one neighborhood in port of prints to take so they these gangs crushed any incoming food convoys from coming in and even the aid workers couldn't get in what ensued was a famine of 20,000. So there's a lot of people which in an urban environment is you know unbelievably rare this is in a situation where there's no food around the situation where the access control is being run by people who are preventing it from getting there.

1:23:33You know the other ways they're doing some of these power dynamics as you mentioned is you know using sexual violence as a as a weapon. They'll come in they'll conquer some of these different neighborhoods that they take control of they'll brutally sexually assault families children you know they're given a choice basically between fighting for these gangs running for their lives and you know the end result is something that's that's too far away. So there's a lot of people who are in a very old type of terror I mean there's the terror of losing your life and some of these fights but you know what I saw and speaking with people on the ground there was it was a psychological trauma and terror that people are living with every day. The gang members are completely in cahoots or you know collaborating with members of the Haitian national police. If you come to a checkpoint you see a Haitian national police officer you don't know if that person is a gang member or actually you know a security figure that could protect you and and that type of mental warfare that's going on in country was something that has just not been present and these gangs have escalated to a completely different level.

1:24:45And you know again I don't want to make this too bleak for everybody but I mean you write that the world health organization says 37 of 100 inpatient health facilities in Porto Prince are still functional so there's I mean what what is the health infrastructure what's left at this point the health of the structure is dissolving in real time and. I was able to visit five different clinics I spent a day going around with medicine song frontier I spent time going around with the world food program the pandemic and health organization and what you really see is. When these gangs take control of a neighborhood they're destroying the infrastructure or they're extorting the people who remain there including the health facilities so there really two options you know one is you run and you shut down your ship. Or you end up paying these people who will take whatever you'll give them I assume but you know that's that you mentioned is so striking because the case load of patients in Porto Prince remains the same which means the catchment zone that they're there now and going to to get health care is shrinking and the patient loads for those health care centers remaining have doubled in most cases and that just the same.

1:26:01And that just leaves very few options for people the other thing that's just an extraordinary challenge for every day Haitians is getting health care itself so if you live in a neighborhood like citaisola that I mentioned and you have no health care options you're crossing gang territory to another part of the city. To get health care doing that is a risk to your life you know gangs will threaten it if you leave if you come back they wonder if you're collaborating with the police or someone else there's a deepness trust. And you know many people are just for going health care altogether into that kind of brutal lay down of the security situation in life on the ground and Haiti is why I think the president Trump's decision to and temporary protected status for Haitians feels I like I'm searching for a better word than evil we're talking about an effort to send about 350,000 Haitians many of whom have been in the United States for decades now back to the United States. Now back to this country at a time when the state department says you should not travel there under any circumstances because of the risk of terrorism kidnapping etc.

1:27:09At a time when I think the charge a called it a war zone right I believe you you quoted him and they called it full scale urban warfare right so I mean like can you talk about like the cruelty of that decision and how it's possible that there could be a determination made by the state department on the other hand that it is not a good thing. That it's actually safe and okay to send Haitians back to Haiti, you just see this cognitive dissidents in the administrations policy on the one hand you have people like Stephen Miller and and Christina from the DHS saying. Haiti is safe it's now improved actually the conditions enough that the Haitians can return back to Haiti and they're going to be rounded up by ice and sent back. But then you have other parts of the administration completely contradicting that the State of Parliament as you say has a level four travel advisory or you citing terrorism, crime and kidnapping as do not travel under any circumstances. You have the FAA who has forbidden commercial flights from the United States from going

1:28:12into Port of Prince because gangs open fire on commercial aircraft in 2024. They struck a spirit airlines flight attendant in one of those cases and they completely shut that down for at this point two years. You have the Department of Defense calling this the counterinsurgency operation that they're putting together, clear hold bill that sounds like Iraq and Afghanistan from a decade plus ago. And yet here we are, ice calling people who had temporary protected status into their offices. They're putting ankle bracelets on them to monitor them in their communities. And when I've spoken to people who have lost their TPS status, this is an equally traumatizing situation. They're living in fear every day that they could be detained by ice, put in a holding cell and eventually deport it back to a country with little more than the clothes on their back. Yeah, in which at worst could be a death sentence at best, there's no economic opportunity. They have no connections there. In many cases, no where to work, no place to stay.

1:29:14I mean, it's just a horrific thing to do to a human being. The international community's efforts to help Haiti have been kind of sclerotic at best. There was this UN-led or Kenyan-led stabilization force mission that just kind of failed. That has been updated now. It's more, I think it's called the Gang Suppression Force, which is I believe 5,000 international troops from places like Chad that I think are going to take the fight to the Haitians. Then there's Eric Prince, the Blackwater CEO, doing something with drones on the ground and Haiti. Can you just talk about kind of what efforts are ongoing to combat these gangs at the moment? Yeah. So, this Kenyan-led force, as you say, was a complete failure on all levels. I think by anyone involved in it would admit as much. The Trump administration came up with this idea for a gang suppression force that had a higher ceiling of troops. It was approved by the UN Security Council exactly a year ago. 5,500 troops made up of Chad, of Sri Lanka, of Kodivwar, and others to go in.

1:30:18They had a license to kill from the UN Security Council to use lethal force against these gangs. What we've seen one year on is a mission that cannot get off the ground. They have only put about 1,500 troops by last count into Haiti despite having two-thirds more that need to be there. Despite the urgency of this situation, they've really struggled to collect more. They've had enough money to pay for this. It's just to have to be baked at this point. Actually today, the UN Security Council extended this gang suppression force, but they only did it for six months. Part of that is the political dynamic with China and Russia and the Council who are not on board with this intervention. I think a bigger part of this speaks to the fact that the Trump administration is doing a poor job diplomatically and getting the international community to a place where they can support some type of stabilization and corollary humanitarian mission in the country. A six-month resolution for a program that hasn't even scaled itself, I, for many years,

1:31:22was the top US humanitarian negotiator in the Security Council. If we wanted a year, we wanted two years, we ended up with six months, and we were dealing with a very weak hand. Ultimately, that signals to me that those two countries who have veto over this gang suppression force are likely to want to see it wind down in the next year, which, looking out for Haiti's own future, does not seem like a positive development for their own security. Putting aside the use of lethal force, there are very few police officers there. There are very few ways of securing the country against these gangs at the moment. On the print side of it, this has been really behind closed doors. The Arms Export Act that the State Department has to use to allow companies that Eric Prince runs because he's an American to get things like lethal drones and defense security support training to the Haitian National Police. They've authorized this, but we don't really know any details of it when you listen to

1:32:25testimony from State Department and Defense Department officials. They state arms length from Prince's operation, but the fact is he has described his work in Haiti as the definition of mercenary. I think that does not bode well for the future of a country who has had a lot of criminal activity in the past that has had a pattern of abuse in terms of military dating back decades. And human rights watch report that came out earlier this year looked at the use of these lethal drones they found over 1,200 people have been killed by them, including 43 civilians and 17 children. They've talked about the types of ways this lethal force is being used as potentially extra-dudicial killings. This just doesn't seem like the way to get Haiti's future back on track. No, the satellite photos that you were before and after, like 2021 today that you post in the piece, you look like Gaza, frankly, they just look like places have been bombed to hell.

1:33:30Also, in the piece you do some math on what typically is needed in normal times to secure a population and then in a war zone what is needed to secure a population. And the number of troops we're talking about through this UN-led force, it's just nowhere even close to what's necessary. So just to, if you could wave a magic wand and kind of put forward your own policy and implement it, what's the gist of what that would look like? What does Haiti need? Well, Haiti's humanitarian appeal is 47% funded at this point. So the first thing that we could do as the United States with others is fund the rest of that. And just to put in perspective, what that delta, that gap of funding is, it's about $450 million, which last time I checked was the equivalent budget of this White House ballroom. So we're not talking about money that's unavailable we should put that forward immediately. There are these development programs that have been cut because of the Trump administration's takedown of USAID. Last year they cut the development assistance to Haiti by 48%. You know, put in practical terms what that involves. Those are programs

1:34:34like PEPFAR where people who were getting antiretrovirals are struggling because some of the wraparound programs that they received in addition to the medication involved food, involved transport or 12 counseling, you know, all of that has been taken down. If you look at the livelihoods that Haitians are trying to build, that requires development assistance. The World Food Program had an amazing program when they're still trying to keep a float that involved buying food locally from farmers and giving it to schools. So that school children have meals to eat, which helps this nutrition program. It helps avoid things like famine in a country like Haiti. When you're not looking at the long term, you're not investing in those. That'd be the first part. You know, the second part is Haiti has been on the receiving end of so many bad ideas over the years. There's really, I think, good intentions from actually even a lot of people in the Trump administration right now who are trying to do the right thing for Haiti. But you have to think about the impact and consequences of what might happen, you know, in 2010 when I was in Haiti,

1:35:39peacekeepers brought cholera to a country that had none and ended up killing thousands of people in the years that followed. When you look at this kind of work around drones and mercenaries, you know, we know that these are not positives. So I think part of this thought has to be what damage can be done by further intervention more than just thinking we have the solution to Haiti. And, you know, the third part is that there just aren't easy answers for this country. It's it's an incredibly complicated poly crisis, but it does require a long-term commitment. And the US is the sole figure, you know, in the Western hemisphere and globally to make that happen. Last question, Sam. I mean, I read your piece and I just imagined driving around the city where I'd been, you know, 16 years ago. And just, I mean, were you scared, shellless? I mean, it's terrifying. There's all these people get kidnapped, even when the ransoms are paid. They're not necessarily let go. You talk about one individual, a man who worked for the Haitian police force, who was kidnapped with his six-year-old daughter. It's like every human

1:36:43being's worst nightmare. And yet you kind of dropped yourself in there to write this report. And I just wondered what that was like. I think what's so challenging for Haiti right now is most mainstream media cannot get into the country because it's so dangerous. And so telling this story just felt for me critical. You know, I love Haiti. I love Haitians. I want people to understand what's going on there right now and how the US is playing a big role in shaping that future. So I did not feel too nervous mostly because the people I was with, the United Nations, doctors without borders, you know, these are people who are very smart. They understand the operating environment they're working in. They're not going to put their people in harm's way if it means getting kidnapped or potentially killed. You know, one thing I would say is the people I was with have an enormous privilege of a security bubble that they can work in. They have people paid on staff. The Haitians that are living their lives every day, the ones I talked about who are crossing gang lines to get health care, the people who are going to work to deliver the health care,

1:37:48they have none of that. And their lives are on the line every single time they step outside. One of the most tragic things I learned about on my trip, I went back to my old office. I learned that a driver who had been there for two decades, one morning was going to be picked up for work. He left his house at five in the morning. He called to get, you know, confirmation of where they would meet. The driver went to go meet him. He wasn't there. They circled around. They found him. He'd been shot. You know, this is, you know, before sunlight comes up. People are watching constantly for targets. And he was sadly and tragically killed. You know, this is a father who had young children. And it was devastating for the office. It's devastating, obviously, for the family. And I just think it speaks to the risk that, and the courage that it takes to get up every day and go to work in an environment like that, that Haitians are showing. And we as the United States have a huge role in trying to alter that direction. And remember that even if someone

1:38:49like myself can go down there for a week and come back and tell that story that people are living this day to day. And the trauma is not going to be easy to get out of. Yeah. Well, folks can read the full report at CFR.org. And Sam, just thanks for coming on the show. Thanks for doing the work you did. It's really important and informative. So I appreciate it. Thanks, Tommy. Really appreciate it. Thanks again to Sam Burgersky for joining the show. And we'll text you. We'll text you. Thanks again to Sam Burgersky for joining me. You know what, leave it in. Yeah, it's been a long episode. Yeah, we'll text you next week. Text you next week. Potsay, the world is a cooking media production. Our show is produced by Alona Minkowski, Michael Goldsmith, and the Nisha Bonnergy. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffko, Jordan Cantor, Kenny Moffat, David Tolls, and Ryan Young. Her staff is probably unionized with the writers killed of America East. As someone tuned into politics, you've probably seen the constant bickering about who belongs in the Pro Democracy movement. Well, we think it's best

1:39:52to have these conversations in person. And hopefully it will also be more productive. CricketCon is right after the midterms, and it is going to be the first time we've come together to hash it out in person and kick off the 2028 debate. We just posted a ton more info about what to expect from the big event from November 5th to 7th. So check it out at cricketcon.com and get your tickets now. The NDC!