So Close - Waiting for Padres to Clinch, Sunday's Big Question

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1:23It is Thursday afternoon and the magic number is one a hearty thanks for nothing to the Colorado Rockies who have been zero health whatsoever this week with the magic number at two going into Monday. You feel like oh, Tuesday, like Tuesday okay, maybe 50, 50, but probably Wednesday and then the Diamondbacks keep on winning. Unfortunately the Padres did their part on Wednesday, but Derek you are a Dodger Stadium. Thursday is your turn and you've been part of many of these champions. So celebrations. So maybe they just needed your presence for the stars to finally align. Yeah, Thomas here on Tuesday and you were here yesterday. So I guess they got to bring in the closer, right? So it's here we go. What is it? The Rockies are just rolling over and playing dead. I mean, the Diamondbacks today had six runs before they recorded and out. I mean, you guys have a little bit of pride in what you're doing. Don't let somebody come in here and just walk all over you in this kind of situation.

2:25I mean help help us out a little bit. Come on a little bit, a little bit. That would be nice. Actually they're pitching a little bit, you know, like maybe a little bit gas coming into to Petco Park if it gets down to that point. I've been, you know, I checked the score earlier. I've been running around. Is that one officially? Well, the six of the bottom of the eighth. So yeah, the they just, the Diamondbacks are up 10 to one at one point. And it's just, it's just, I'm sorry, 10 to nothing at one point. So they've, yeah, they've kind of let the Rockies back into it a little bit, but now it's the old to six run game. Now again, in course field, no lead is safe. However, this lead is safe. It would be like one of the most hilarious instances of course field chaos. If they came back down from a double digit run deficit and then clinched it for the Padres with a what 10 plus run come back, that would be incredible. That would be kind of, I think that'd be payback for all the times the Padres fans have suffered and had something go completely against them.

3:28And just say the sports fans in general, everything going against the San Diego sports curves for this long and something to have something like that happen where it's like here, allow us to surprise you with this gift of epicness. That would be great. That would be nice. Okay, so kind of a strange episode here, our plan for today, we'll discuss where things stand now. If the Padres get it done or if there's a wild comeback at course, we will have another episode for you later tonight. Zach Veean, Homer's solo shot. It's now 12 7 in the bottom of the eighth. So you're telling me there's a chance. I'm telling you there's a chance. There's one there, there's one solo home run away from being able to tie it with a grand slam. Slam range as, as my likes. So if you do not see another episode in this feed by night's end or by Friday morning, that means the Padres still have not clinched. If the Padres clinch you and I will hop on, this will be an abbreviated 25, 26 minute

4:31episode. If they clinch tonight, we'll have another one of these later on this evening where you can enjoy soaking it all in, then finally, punch in there, take it, Derek and the team will literally soak it all in and you can, you can bask in the moment with us as well. So that is the plan right now. So we'll discuss where things stand and keep our fingers crossed for another episode later on tonight. All right, before we go any further, shout out to OGs, appreciate OGs and all they do for the on fire podcast. If you need a place to catch one of these last four remaining games of the regular season or perhaps post season baseball, OGs great place to do a bunch of locations around San Diego County and tons of TVs everywhere you go. And I'm curious how many of those TVs will be turned on to the Padres when they are playing fingers crossed in a wild card game next weekend. I would think a high, high percentage of those TVs. Great menu, awesome beer list and just a good place to hang. So appreciate OGs and all they do for us. Without further ado, the welcome music.

6:02It is the on fire podcast brought to you by NBC seven. He is Derek Togerson coming to you live from Dodger Stadium. I am Darnay Tripp back home at the NBC seven studios and the way continues Derek Tuesday could have been a fun day. It was pretty clear early on that was not going to be the case. Wednesday could have been a fun day and Rockies did make it interesting. I was watching the game with a few folks including we got to give a shout out to photojournalist extraordinaire Jeff Herrera. He's right here again. Yeah. Three separate trips to Dodger Stadium in his many days behind the wheel, behind the lens, doing it all for us. And so big shout out to Jeff. He is the real MVP this week. So watching the game with him and just kind of anxiously waiting that eighth ninth inning are the Rockies going to do it. They did not. But it still ended up being a really good night for the podra is because the Cubs lose,

7:02the Phillies lose, Padres beat Yoshinova Yamamoto who has been had been excellent against a small season. And so they move into that top spot in the wild card and trim the magic number to one. And we just need one thing to happen today Derek doesn't look like a look like that thing is going to happen of course field. Hopefully it does at Dodger Stadium. Yes. Let's go ahead and put that Diamondback Rockies game aside because it is it is always more satisfying when you go in on a win. I mean, there's never complain about getting in. You always want to get in however you can get in, but there's this little bit extra of like, yeah, we earned it. We got it. You don't know the entire game that you're already in. You don't have to delay the celebration and be thinking about that in the back of your head. You can just go boom, emotion, ride high, carry it right into the clubhouse, let the party go start popping the bottles. That's always fun. Now it also be a heck of a lot, a lot easier and a less stressful day if you are able to just walk in there and go, hey, we've got our playoffs. The spot set. That's awesome. However, even if there is that miraculous comeback you're talking about with the Rockies,

8:05I'm not sure they do that because the Cubs also beat the Marlins today and the Cubs punched their playoff ticket. So we know the Cubs are in and it was a two one win. We know that the Pogra is lost to them, but we feel lost here. And we know that the Cubs have the tiebreaker on the Pogra's. So they can't mess around too terribly much with this. They need to continue to win baseball games to keep the Cubs off of their back to be able to host the Wildcard Series of Pekko Park. So even if we do get that, they come out there as I very strongly doubt there would be any kind of a, okay, we can kind of take this off. It's like, hey, Chicago, if you want to play a Pekko Park, let go. Yeah, I appreciate what you're saying about like you want to, you want to do the winning, you want to do the clinching yourself. There is part of me that's just really curious what it would be like in the clubhouse before the game on Thursday. If they the Rockies ran away with it and they clinched and you guys are all talking to them before the game, they've already clinched, but they're not celebrating yet.

9:09And then what does it look like? It would be six hours or so later, seven hours later. The game when they do celebrate and is it after win? Is it after a loss? Like what does this celebration look like if it's after a loss, but they had clinched earlier that afternoon, just really, really strange. And I don't know if we've had a scenario potentially play out quite like that in this recent run. And so I was curious what that would be like, but it doesn't look like we're going to get that have that. Well, the last two 24 and 25 were dramatic. I mean, 24 was here at Dodger Stadium with the triple play. The triple play put them in in the ninth inning. And then last year it was at Pickle Park against the breweries. Brewers Freddie for me with a tenth inning walkoff face hit. So it was and they, you know, it was one that knew they had to win and get in. So those were incredibly dramatic, you know, over a psyche. Not only do you get a great, you know, amazing win on either a game ending triple play or a walkoff hit next to innings. So you've got that emotion and then that takes you into this makes the party even not

10:11much more exciting. But yeah, seeing one where you kind of know you're in like six hours ahead of time, that would be, that would be weird. And it just happened to baseball teams several times. So it's not, not terribly out of question. Actually, Jeff and I were talking about this in the car driving up. There is a situation for the guardians today where if they lose to the Red Sox, but the Astros lose in Sacramento to the A's, then the guardians would get in. But they're playing in the East Coast and their game would end about around first pitch of the game where the Astros are playing. So they would have to wait around the clubhouse at Fenway for like three or four hours, but they have to go to Kansas City. So they have a flight scheduled. So they can find out while they're on the plane if they get in or not. So that would be kind of a totally fun random situation where that we want to talk about Dr. Spentley being drunk on a plane. That would, I'm sure be happening with Cleveland quite a bit. This doesn't be a little bit different one, but again, you get in, you're happy.

11:13And you after the started in mid February, after that much time of trying to get to this point and you finally get there, there's going to be a lot of hair let down and a lot of steam let off no matter how you get in. Yeah, for sure. You mentioned the true play and when Robbie Ray was in the process of loading them up in the fourth inning yesterday, I joke, well, if they turn a triple play, do they just all run to the dugout, run to the clubhouse and start celebrating just out of instincts? You know, it's just like from the 2024 experience, like isn't this what we do? We turn a triple play and then we start poppin' bottles. That was, we can get into the game a little bit. I want to talk about Ethan Sous, because he, I mean, three for three on challenges. He continues to be awesome and super, super impressive. Can we talk about Sunday, because I feel like there is a bit of a debate going on right now about how they potentially handle Sunday, if they have a chance to lock up home field

12:15and whether or not to use Michael King. You don't use Michael King. And I agree. And I agree. Look, I get it. I get how much better they are at home than on the road. I get it. I get it. But you cannot in good conscience burn the man who Craig Stamina said on multiple occasions and every Pogray fan will tell you and everyone in that clubhouse will tell you is their best pitcher. You can't burn him like that because then to see he pitches neat, he, okay, then he got Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, even if there is, even if there is a game free on Thursday, he's still on free days rest. And now you're not getting the best version of Michael King for the games that literally are winter go home. So no, you don't, you don't, you only start him. For some reason, you lose the next three games tonight and the first two against the Diamondbacks. And then it's do or die on Sunday. Right, right. In which case they would Craig Stamina said they would start him. Yeah, because then you have to, because then you have no other choice.

13:18You have to get in to be and they worry about the rest of it later. There is, there is no, I don't see any logical reason to start him in a game that may or may not get you to be able to play the series at home versus start him in a playoff series where it's best two out of three. There's just, that makes no sense to me. Tony Deach, chime in on Facebook. Don't fret. They'll be in. I tend to agree. Chevy is called the heartbeat of America for a reason with SUVs made to move with your rhythm. The versatile equinox tackles your entire day. The spacious traverse fits your crew and your whole weekend. And tracks bring style with value you can count on. All infused with tech that has your back. So your drive always hits the right cord. Let's do the heartbeat. Adventure awaits in a new Chevy. Right now get $500 bonus cash on select Chevy tracks models.

14:19Plus get 2.9% financing on all 2026 tracks models. Together let's drive at your Southern California Chevy dealers. This cash is available on 2026 Chevy tracks LT in active terms only 2.9% APR for 36 months. Monthly payment is $2904 for every $1,000 new finance. Example them payment 11%. Must finance with GM financial. Some customers may not qualify. Not available with lease and some of their offers. Take your retail delivery by 93026. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. We go. We go. We go. Ask your prescriber about We GoVie. Some Maglatide Injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP 1. Call 1-8334 We GoVie or visit We GoVie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about We GoVie. Why wait? We go. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium.

15:22It has offline downloads so you can watch without Wi-Fi. Background play. So you can lock your phone and it still plays, baby. Oh, and it is completely ad free. Yes, I said it ad free. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. Our buddy Darren Smith sees things I think a little bit differently and it seems a bit like he views it as Craig Stam and I don't want to speak for Darren. But views it a bit as Craig Stam and diminishing the value and the importance of Home Field by saying, well, we're not going to worry about that part so much. We want Michael King more than we want Michael King available in the wild card more than we want Home Field in the wild card. I feel like there's some people that are translating that way that are like, okay, but they've been exceptional at home. So isn't that enough to spur you on to fire that bullet on Sunday to ensure that you're

16:29at home where you have been playing your best baseball? Well, it's a lot out of another wrinkle to this. Who are they playing? Where would they potentially go? Because if they would potentially go to Philadelphia. Then pitch Michael King. Then you throw Michael King or you look at it as you're going to deal with Zach Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez and Aaron Nola. You better have a horse like Michael King available to deal with that. Or are you playing the Chicago Cubs where they'll bludge and you need to death even though they're probably not going to have Alex Breggman or at least certainly not Alex Breggman to 100%. But they don't have a whole lot of pitching. So you can win us. You can win us luck best. And then if you look down the line, you got Michael King ready to go and game one of the division series against, you know, most likely Jacob Mizorowski. Yeah. So, I mean, they're that now that's extrapolating a lot and assuming a lot of different stuff. And we know how they were at Ridley Field last year where the offense all of a sudden disappeared.

17:34Wind up construction certainly has something to do with that, Mike Schilt. But there's, I don't know. I have a hard time accepting willfully removing your best starting pitcher from a playoff series. That's that's where it boils in. And yes, they are one of the best teams in baseball at home. Well, I think only the only teams of the better home records so far are I think the race, brewers, braves, and maybe the Dodgers. And they're all going to have first round by except the braves who are going to be their division champion. So like, Pekopark means something. There's no doubt Pekopark means something. But the ability to play that series of Pekopark, I don't think is as important as the ability to have your best starting pitcher available in a game that you have to have. So again, and I agree, Ajakast Velgris with us as well.

18:35And the other point too is if they are so good at home, shouldn't they be able to win on Sunday at home without their ace? Well, that's what you would hope because remember Chicago has to go to Boston and the rain's going to be nasty out there. And Philadelphia has to deal with the race at home. I know Tampa Bay is always long already locked up the number one seed, but they're not going to be rolling over because they know they have to take a week off going into that division series. So they're going to keep playing their guys because they don't want them to get cold. So it does not have an easy road. Chicago certainly does not have an easy road going to Fenway, especially with rain in the forecast. So you would hope that the Padres could win one or the first two at home against the Diamond Backs. They were coming down out of the altitude, the course field, and be just fine. So you'd hope that they won't even be in that situation at that point. And also if they're in that scenario, Arizona is eliminated and they have nothing to play for on Sunday. So you're playing at home where you're really good against a team that has nothing to play

19:37for. Like you shouldn't necessarily need Michael King to win that game. And if you don't pitch Michael King, who do you throw? That's where I get tricky because Michael King leads off this week, five, six games and six days. So you're using your rotation and then you get to Sunday. And then what are you looking at? Is it a K-Astay? Is it essentially a K-Astay? D-N, you can do that. Given the fact you know you have Monday off. Because the series doesn't start until Tuesday. So you can use a lot of your bullpen guys. You probably don't want to have a guy like Randy Vasquez start and go more than three maybe innings. You know, because here's the thing, unless what you could do is you know one of either Robbie Ray or Casey Meyers is not going to be on the postseason roster. So what if it's, or the wild cards here is roster because you don't need them and they're

20:37not used to coming out of the bullpen. It's probably going to be Robbie Ray. So you could very easily start Robbie Ray on three days rest. Right? He went last night. So it would be, I guess my day is Saturday. Yeah, I guess it would be two days rest. But here's the thing that for him, that would be a bullpen day. So it would be his regular bullpen day. You can use him as an opener, get him through two or three innings and then go with a K-Astay. And then you're not burning all your bullpen on him. Mr. I guess my thinking was if it's King Paveta Bueller and then a fully rested Ray available as well. And then Casey Meyers, you know, available for the DS. Yeah. But either way, I mean, Ray on short rest on a bullpen day gets you a nitting or two. Not a bad option. Exactly. That is his bullpen day anyway. He's going to throw 45-50 pitches. Might as well have that be in a game where he can be your starter and then you piggyback him and Randy Vasquez and if that gets you through six innings and you're not worried about

21:41Ray in a wild card series anyway. Yeah. It's been, I've enjoyed having these, some of these back and forth since seeing other people's arguments, just kind of doing the mental exercise because I've been leaning the direction that we're discussing. But I think what has sort of solidified it for me and thinking about this today is if they do throw Michael King, best case scenario, you're at home with either no Michael King or Michael King on short rest. Best case scenario, you lose on Sunday, even with Michael King, you go on the road without Michael King or with Michael King on your rest, which is the worst scenario of all. You're on the road and you don't have a fully rested Michael King. If they don't pitch Michael King, the best case scenario, which is the best case scenario of all, is they still went on Sunday, they have home field and they have a rested Michael King for game one. The worst case in that situation is to have Michael King on the road.

22:46So if they don't pitch Michael King, you have a better best case scenario and a better worst case scenario than you do if you pitch Michael King, where you have the worst worst case scenario and not ideal situation where Michael King is not available or fully rested at home. Correct. That's a very good logic problem. It's a very, what we did in our philosophy classes is when you look through all the different permutations and different things that can happen, what are you most comfortable with? And you're right. When you're not starting Michael King on Sunday, again, aside from a, you have to win this game to get an incident. If you're not starting him, your floor and your ceiling are higher. Yes. And if you do start him and then lose that game, you know, it's, yeah, precisely. It's, that's what I'm saying, is it just, it's, it, it, it totally makes sense to want to have home field advantage, especially again, without good, they've been a pet go park.

23:47But not at the expense of potentially not having the guy who has been your most reliable starter and, by the way, has one hell of a postseason track record. Yeah. Um, you want to gush about Ethan Salis at all? Oh, dude, he's, a, the offense has been great. That, can we talk about that challenge? The one that with David Morgan was show, yeah, show, he, show, he gets fully undressed on his way to first base. Mm-hmm. Bringing up the female demographic in the, in the broadcast by 80%. But he was, it was just like, there was no hesitation. There was no question. And it was because, and it wasn't even so much that he knew it was a strike. He knew that in that situation, it's close enough that gambling was worth it. Because if you get the strike, they've organized a chance to get them out. Right. If you don't get the strike, oh, well, you've lost nothing.

24:48It's still a walk. The run still comes on. You still have another challenge. And you're still early in the game was a fourth inning. But the fact that he, yeah, the fact that he understood the situation. And in that moment, understood the pros and cons of it. Just like what you talked about with whether or not you start Michael King. He was so prepared and so mentally jacked into the game that he knew exactly what the situation called for. And for a 20 year old, with show, hey, O'Tani at the place to be that in tune and that aware of his surroundings and the situation is insane. That kid's baseball like you is off the charts. I was incredibly impressed with that. And then hats off to David Morgan finishing that at bat. You know, he gets second life. He challenges. He gets the strike out and they get out of that jam. We talked to Salis before the game and, you know, about his role and just the situation they're in and all of that. And you know, his relationship with Robbie Ray going that start and somebody asked him,

25:48like, you know, what's going to be like second at bat of the game? You got show of Tony come to play and he just kind of laughed. He's like, I mean, I'm, I'm so locked in that it's just like another person. And then he caught himself because he understands how these things can be interpreted. And he's like, now not to say that show of Tony is just anybody. Obviously, great player, but like, I'm just dialed in. I'm just working with my pitcher and work on doing our game plan. And all he knows is the scouting report, right? It's just like he's so focused and unfazed by seemingly all of it, which is hard for me to fathom even sitting here as an almost 41 year old to have that type of like maturity and just like laser focus on his task and what he needs to do in the moment and just not making anything bigger than it needs to be. And he's doing that at Dodger Stadium when the stakes are extremely high. And it's just awesome. Yeah, he can also hold over over over Otani. He said the fact that he made his big league debut three years before Otani did.

26:49Show, he was a 23 year old rookie. Oh, yeah, there you go. Yeah. It's just been so fun to watch. And then you just wonder more and more like, okay, what could this look like for him in the post season? You know, with every past day. That's a debate to have. Yeah, every passing day. It's like put more on his shoulders. He's earning it. Yeah, he has been incredible. He's honest with that. And that's not hyperbally. He truly has been incredible. And he has, I mean, he has helped not have to rush Gavin Sheets back. You know, with those foot injuries, man, I say it's sometimes you can, those things can, can linger. And if you don't have to push back to your because, you know, he got somebody who's handling the business, that just makes him even more dangerous, moving down the road. I mean, if you, if you went into the post season with this exact roster construction, how are they going to be at any, any problem with it whatsoever? If you went into it with Freddy Firmin or Ethan Salas and you brought in a, I'm do harbac and a Sheets back because you're only going to carry 12 pictures in the post season anyway.

27:53I don't think anybody have problem with that either because it's just, all these guys have proven their ability to handle big stages. I mean, right or Fred, he was fantastic in that wild culture. He's last year at and behind the plate. So he's, he's, he's got a track record as well. It's, it's a very nice problem to have. Yeah. Right before you wrap up here, I thought the fourth and into the fifth yesterday, one of the like most encouraging innings and a half that we've seen. The Manny Homeworld Yamamoto bases loaded dough outs, limiting them to one run and then adding on right away to kind of keep that leg up. That's when I was like, okay, they're, they're all right. They shook off Tuesday and, and they're in good shape. And they did against a quality ball club. I know a lot of people would say, oh, then being up on the Giants and the Rockies and the Marlins, it did it. They, they went out and bounced back against a very, very good ball club against the best pitcher on that ball club, who was the reigning World Series MVP. So yeah, this is a good baseball team. Yeah, it's Lauren. Hey guys, truly amazing to be in this place when two months, it's suggesting we should sell Miller and more kudos to the team for the fight.

29:00Indeed, indeed. Just weren't the only one, dude. You weren't the only one. Back and look at, listen to some old episodes. All right, Derek, let's fingers crossed. We do this again in about seven or eight hours here. All right. Let's do it. Have fun up there. Flowing ad bunched on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them. That's Bulls Bend. And marketers are calling it out in dashboard confessions. I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it wasn't. Cut the Bulls Bend. LinkedIn lets you target by company, job title, and more. Advertise on LinkedIn. Spend $250 on your first campaign and get a $250 credit go to LinkedIn.com, slash campaign, Terms and Ceticions Apply.