Could Trump blow up Nato over Iran war? – The Latest

0:00This is the Guardian. We're going into what the third week of this war and there is no sign of any of this violence for Lenting. It's very hard to see the temperature being kind of dialed down. We're always there for NATO. We're helping them with the great to be interesting to see. What country would help us? It is in the interests of these NATO allies to find a way to secure and open the strait. And it is just a question of whether or not countries actually want to send their navies into the firing line. Donald Trump threatens the future of NATO as he pressures allies to send ships to the strait of her moves. From the Guardians today and focus, this is the latest with me Lucy Hath. I'm joined by Hannah Ellis Peterson, the Guardian South Asia correspondent, currently in Dubai for us. Thanks so much for joining us, Hannah. So over the weekend, Donald Trump, the US president,

1:01has been putting lots of pressure on NATO allies as well as other partners around the world to help him reopen the strait of her moves, that vital crossing in the Gulf, in the Persian Gulf, that is responsible for so much of the world's oil trade. What exactly is he asking of NATO and other partners? What he's got one very simple demand is that he wants them to send their warships into the strait of her moves to accompany the oil and gas tankers that are going through there that are currently being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, and that are causing this major disruption to one of the world's most important flows of energy in the world and causing oil to skyrocket to exorbitant prices. And so he's essentially asking them to use their militaries to defend the oil and gas tankers and send their navies into this very small and very critical strip of sea. We'll come onto the response of NATO another's in a second, but it's worth also saying that he has issued quite a kind of stark threat to NATO in particular,

2:06saying it could be very bad for its future. What are we getting the sense of the consequences that there might be if NATO refuses, as seems to be the case this demand? I mean, is this a question of sanctions, for example? Who knows? This is Donald Trump. I mean, in the past, he's used tariffs as a very kind of punitive measure in these kinds of circumstances. What he means by very bad is very unclear. But what is true is that, you know, it is in the interests of these NATO allies also to find a way to secure and open the strait. This isn't only something that Donald Trump wants to do, but it is just a question of whether or not countries actually want to send their navies into the firing line and the consequences of that. And so I think there is a sense of countries kind of treading carefully of saying, you know, this is a priority for us as well. We want to ensure the oil and gas is flowing through their strait again, but also kind of ensuring that they're not brought into a war, which they didn't start and which they have no intention of joining and have no intention of sort of putting their navies on the front line of.

3:09And is there any sense that the US is considering pulling out of NATO or that there's a threat that it might do that? That's something that Donald Trump has, you know, made his threat threaten repeatedly. The threat of repeatedly, you know, what that actually means is very unclear. You know, he's certainly kind of used that against, you know, to try and get what he wants in these circumstances. But it's very, you know, with him, it's very unpredictable and very hard to know, and it's hard to know what exactly will appease him in this situation. What we do know is that the response from NATO, France, Germany, the UK, has been very muted, very vague on what type of military support they would be prepared to provide if at all. The UK, the Prime Minister Kierstamer has been speaking this morning, saying that it would be prepared to send minesweeping drones, or that certainly under consideration, but is ruling out, sending ships with a view that that could further escalate the situation, and Stammer has been very clear that he doesn't want to get dragged into this war and to further escalate the situation. But there's also been a muted response from countries like Australia and

4:10Japan, right? I mean, for these countries to send their navies into the strait of humus, if the current situation is extremely risky and extremely dangerous, you know, these are countries not currently involved in this war and, you know, but as soon as they put their navies into the strait of humus, and for example, if they got hit by an Iranian missile, an Iranian drone, an Iranian mine in the water, would be seen as a direct act of aggression against those countries, and would risk bringing them into a war that they don't want to be a part of. You know, this waterway is currently very unsecured. There's no security in the skies. There's no security in the water. Iran's talked about laying mines in the water. And so, you know, to put their navies onto the front line and risk them being hit or targeted by Iranian missiles, you know, risk striking all of these countries into a war that they're really desperate to try and keep out of as much as they can. Yeah, and perhaps the White House and the Trump administration have really underestimated how complex the situation is. You sense that Trump is looking for an easy way out, of this, but Iran is saying it's not at all looking for a ceasefire, and it will continue for

5:16as long as it takes. You are in the United Arab Emirates and Dubai at the moment. We know that there's been continued attacks from Iran into the Gulf over the weekend. There's been continued U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, but also heavy bombardment in Lebanon with a tragic 800 killed there. So the situation continues to be very febrile and very dangerous, doesn't it? Yeah, I mean, we're going into what the third week of this war, and there is no sign of any of this violence relenting. I mean, yeah, I mean, Dubai right now in the UAE, which has born, you know, the brunt of the missiles and drones that Iran has been sending over into the Gulf as a form of retaliation. Over the weekend, you know, you're constantly hearing the low rumble of fighter jets, you get these alarms on your phones saying there are missiles close by, you know, stay away from windows. Just this morning, Dubai Airport was targeted. We saw a major port in the UAE targeted, which is where they export, you know, 2 percent of the world oil comes out of this port. And, you know, repeatedly that they've been forced to halt any kind of loading of oil from there.

6:21You know, even in the Gulf, it still feels very, very volatile. And then, you know, beyond that, you've seen Israel launching fresh strikes on Iran this morning. You know, there's talk of possible kind of annexation in Lebanon. So there is no sense here of, you know, this kind of cooling down. And at the other side, you've got Iran saying that they have no interest in negotiation or a ceasefire. It's very hard to see, you know, the temperature being kind of dialed down. Yeah. And a US administration and an Israeli government that perhaps seem increasingly isolated in their, in perhaps in Trump's case, wanting to end the war as quickly as possible. But Netanyahu keen to press on as is Iran, in perhaps a sign of how desperate the situation is becoming. Trump has keen to bring China into all of this, given that Beijing relies so heavily on the oil that passes through the strait of her moves. I mean, how plausible is that given the state of US-China relationship, the tariff war that we saw at the end of last year? I mean, quite implausible. China has made absolutely no attempts to get involved in this,

7:24except for some sort of vague statements. And it doesn't seem like they're in any way willing to get entangled in Trump's war on Iran. They're an ally of Iran. And, you know, they've made their own efforts to ensure the oil and gas are coming through the strait. But for them, their interest is ensuring that their gas and oil comes through Chinese, the gas and oil. They don't have much interest in ensuring that American gas and oil than other Western countries gas and oil is coming through. You know, there is no sense that China is in any way willing to certainly put warships on the front line. And so, you know, even though Trump is talking about pressuring China, at this point, you know, China has its own relationship with Iran and is securing its own interest there. You know, it doesn't really need to kind of bow down to the demands of Trump to ensure that, you know, they get what they need from Iran. Yeah, and you've got some fairly major players in the global economy there, don't you? You've got the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, others who are flat out refusing to bow to this pressure from Trump at the moment. It's worth saying that today, in focus, we'll have a long look at the importance of the

8:24state of Hamus in the global oil market and to enter the global economy at large. But for now, is there any sense given that sort of relative coordination between those countries, refusing to bow down to Trump that a diplomatic solution could be possible? Or do you think we risk further escalation? Well, I think ultimately you will have to be that because there isn't a clear outcome of exactly what America wants with this war. Israel has its own agenda in terms of, you know, and we can clearly see that in the actions that they're taking in Lebanon. So I guess it's sort of dependent on how, you know, America feels it can frame this as a victory and the point at which they feel they can kind of then say they would end it with negotiations. It doesn't feel like this is something that could be, you know, won by just kind of constant barrage of bombing, you know, Iran has made it very clear that they are not going to stop. And so, you know, it feels like a diplomatic solution is the only one that is possible to bring this to an end, but the ways in which that would take place, you know, are sort of impossible to predict. Yeah, and we know that there was a very testy phone call between Kierstammer and Donald Trump last night. Hannah, thank

9:26you so much for your time and stay safe and goodbye. Thank you so much, Lucy. That's it for today. And for more on Kierstammer's response to Trump and his plans for energy bill support, don't miss today's episode of Politics Weekly. And to understand what's going on in the straighter promos and why it's having such an enormous impact, keep your eyes and ears peeled for tomorrow morning's episode of Today and Focus. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Haft. It was produced by Ani LaVespa. The senior producer was Ryan Ram Gobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hedge. This is The Guardian.