Are the Greens shifting further left?

0:00ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. You've watched the news and think, whoa, this seems unprecedented. Unprecedented? It's unprecedented. This has never happened before. This is unprecedented. I'm Matt Bevan. And my show, if you're listening, is about finding times that what's happening now has happened before and figuring out what we can learn from it. Learning from history. Who could imagine? New episodes every Tuesday and Thursday on ABC Listen, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Greens have a new leader. New South Wales Senator David Schubridge has been elevated to the top job, with rising star Steph Hodgons May taking the deputy leadership. So what does it signal about the Greens' new direction? It comes as new inflation data has just landed a day after the Reserve Bank hyped interest rates again.

1:01And while Angus Taylor is trying to make this a referendum on Jim Charmer's budget management, is this also a test of his leadership? Welcome to Politics Now. Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellas. And I'm David Spears. And David, let's start on a new Greens leader. Pretty close after we had the last one, because Larissa Waters, of course, stood down for health reasons. They've had now a ballast, and they've even revealed the numbers, which I have not seen before, which was kind of spicy. Yeah, they don't do this normally, do they? No, they don't. And it showed that perhaps some of the critiques, I'm going to take, I'm going to let the fourth estate, the media get some some some of the kudos for this. I think maybe all of the critiques we've had about the secrecy of the Greens and how they go about their leadership has led to some coins dropping, so they did reveal their numbers. So hats off to them, because I think that's good.

2:02Transparency, it's great. I think we should celebrate it. And for those who might be wondering, we got the full numbers on the first round and the second round of voting. So the first round, David Schubert, who had six votes, Marine Faroukie, three, Sarah Hanson Young, two, and then when it came down to the two horse race between David Schubert and Marine Faroukie, seven to Schubert, four to Faroukie, a comfortable win in a small party room. Yeah, in a very small party room, which makes it so personal. You know, the smaller anything is it's not just about the Greens, the more intense, I think the emotions flow. Yeah, and just on that, this will be what we're all watching for now. And I don't know how much transparency we'll get around this, but are they going to come together behind David Schubert or is the sort of split that we've seen here? And a lot of it is to do with personality from my conversations, not as much to do with policy, but personality and how pragmatic to be working with the government. If they can't unite now on this, some of those well play sources have told me they could

3:06be in Democrats territory. Now what's that a reference to? The Australian Democrats. All those years ago, you remember a PK fell apart largely because of differences over leadership and personality, differences over how pragmatic to be with the government of the day. There's a very familiar ring to some of the debates that have been going on in the Greens over the last couple of days. Oh, I think that is like hammer, nail, all hit, yeah. That is absolutely the case. So we've got now David Schubert and the new deputy who I think is kind of very untested. I've interviewed her a few times. She's really passionate member of the Greens, but she's pretty new, I think, to the federal parliament as is deputy. Well, for a minute there, yesterday they were running as co-leaders, which we're not used to in Australia, but the Greens in Canada, in Germany, in New Zealand, in the UK, they've done this quite a bit, had co-leaders. So you have usually a gender split, a factional split, perhaps, for various reasons, also

4:11not, you know, vesting too much power in one individual in a collective party. But in the end, it emerged today that, no, instead of a co-leader model, it would be Hodgents May as the deputy and Schubert as the leader, and that's how it's emerged. So what does it tell us about the direction of the Greens? So I think that's a really key question. If you listen to his stump speech, yeah, like he stands up, it's announced, and he does his big stump speech, and I reckon it's the most... He very, very obviously was channeling Mandarning, like the whole kind of rhetoric of sort of more of a left radical, we're going to sort of be bolder, they're going to try and replace Labour, blaming the rise, and I thought this was absolutely fascinating, and so political, like left on left violences back, Larissa Waters was much more concilitry, he was basically

5:16blaming the Labour Party for the rise of one nation. And that they were responsible and he was going to take them on. So I think he's going to move, wants to move the Greens to the left, and I think that's quite significant. What do you think, David? Yeah, I mean, he said exactly that right after four years of this government. So it's not my thought, he said... No, he said it. We are not here to make Labour better. We are here to replace them. That's as clear as day. And so the choice, you know, if they'd gone with us, Erich Hansen, Young, or Moderate, or Pragmatic has worked with the government on various bits of big legislation during their time in government. I think, yeah, what we saw here, and the thing that really struck me from David Schubert in the remarks that he made after becoming leader of the Greens, was the cost of living focus. This was 100% cost of living focus for the new Greens leader. Barely mentioned climate change, barely mentioned Israel and Gaza, you know, came up in a couple of questions. But he was all about the people pushing the trolley in the grocery aisle. He was, you know, talking about the difficulties they're facing.

6:19He was talking about trying to deliver hope to people who are really struggling, the vacuum that's been left by the Labour Party, the 1% who are to blame for all of our problems, and corporate Australia as well. So it was a very much economic focus from David Schubert. And I thought it was quite an effective opening press conference from the new leader. I thought he had energy. It struck me that this could be a concern for Labour, given all the difficulties they've got in the economy. We'll get to all of that, particularly this week. Now they've got a new face, a new figure on their left flank who's coming for them, not over climate, not over Gaza, but over the economy. That is absolutely what's happening. And so if you think about Labour now, we're going to segue to Labour because this is, you know, not very good economic figures out in the last couple of days for them, both on interest rates and, of course, inflation. So they're getting now under this new leader potentially, rhetorically, let's see if

7:19it comes out in the numbers, but rhetorically smashed. They're being smashed from the right, from one nation and the Liberals are trying, but I think, you know, less effective probably at this stage, which we'll also get to, just smashed. And that happens after people are being smashed because the economy is in the doldrums. Things are very bad for people. People are feeling it very acutely and I think it's the cumulative impact of inflation now for such a long period of time too. So where people may have, you know, be more tolerant at the earliest stages of inflation, I sort of personally feel like that's the case, you know, but all right, just, you know, keep your chin up. Yeah, you're right. Keep it going, you're sorry. These things are accumulative. And it does, and it does feel like this week, things have really accumulated, right? We're at a point now, at a moment now where this starts to get a lot worse for labor, a lot worse for the, a lot more difficult for them to convince people that they have

8:20the answers to this to bring inflation down, get productivity going and, you know, make our lives better. This becomes very difficult when you've got the Reserve Bank saying the things that the Reserve Bank said this week. I mean, Michelle Bullock was pretty blunt on the two big priorities for the government, both inflation and productivity on inflation. She was, you know, very clear that it's too high and it's been driven by domestic capacity pressures and productivity is doing nothing. She said, I mean, out, big A. When she said, I'm not the productivity's are, you know, I mean, I've spoken to the Trojua for afternoon briefing and I'm like, she's not the productivity's are, but I think you are, or you should be, right? But it's true. That's his job. And they have to shift the dial on that and they'll tell you what they've got in their budget because they did have a productivity plan in the budget. Yep. Okay. They did. But nothing is happening fast enough. Meanwhile, people are languishing. Yeah. And I mean, fairness productivity is a very slow burn.

9:20You know, we've had this problem now for two decades. You can't snap your fingers and fix it with any one thing. Yes, there were things in the budget earlier this year that have to do with removing unnecessary regulation and, you know, helping productivity in a meaningful way. But is it enough? There's a bigger gesture need to be made here, given where we're at. I don't pick up from Jim Charmers or Anthony Aldenese this week, any change in direction, any fresh ideas to deal with the situation wherein they are in a defensive mode. What do you think? That's exactly what they, defense, defense, defense, defense. And the problem for the government and let's like properly segue into what this is all about. The inflation data that's landed, Australia's inflation rate rose to 4% in the year to August, driven by higher fuel prices. Now, that's the headline figure to be clear. That means it does include higher oil prices that spike because of the war in the Middle East. If you look at the underlying, the trimmed mean inflation, it was 3.6%.

10:21So we have to look at that figure. That's what, that's the preferred measure of the Reserve Bank and anyone who kind of makes these decisions. It's unchanged from the 12 months to July, 2026. But that's not good. Unchanged is not good because it needs to change down. Yeah. Right? It's not going down. And that is the issue. So it's far away from the RBA's target ban. You mentioned the RBA governor and what she said. The timing after an interest rate rise and the fact that she has made it quite clear that she's prepared to raise rates again. And that's likely to happen in November. That is a really diabolical political situation for the government. Let's talk about the emphasis difference because the governor talks about the Middle East and the treasurer keeps telling us she's mentioning the Middle East. Of course she is. Yes. But she's talking about the domestic stuff and the government has been defensive about the domestic element, right? There's definitely a difference in emphasis between the two.

11:23There's no denying that. And yes, they're both pointing to the domestic factors and the factors of the Middle East and AI to a degree as well. But where Michelle Bollock, the Reserve Bank governor, is clearly emphasising the domestic factors when it comes to inflation. Jim Charmer's an Anthony Albanese without doubt emphasising the war as the big factor. Now look, today's figures are really interesting on this. I mean, yes, that headline inflation number jumped to 4%. That's a scary jump. That does have a lot to do with, as you say, what's happened with fuel over the last month or so in particular. That, I mean, it's still a 15% increase in petrol prices. The ex-ice cut was finally and fully removed and it got the global oil price rising. So huge jump there. That explains the headline. In fact, the headline rate, I think, came in just a little bit of them was expected. It was expected 4.1, came in 4. But the underlying rate is the one that trims out all of this stuff. And it's one that the Reserve Bank looks at. It still stuck at 3.6%. Now, within that, you can see the monthly underlying number is 0.2.

12:26That's not too bad. So for August, you know, and you can see why the treasurer was keen to focus on that. It's a better number for that month. And we need to see more of that. So I think today's figures do back what the treasurer is saying that, yes, we've seen a big impact on inflation from what's happened in the Middle East. You can see that with that fuel price spike of nearly 15%. But it's not the whole story. No, and that's where I think that some of the reporting and some of the emphasis has sought to, it's a blame gang like so, it depends, you know, what your political perspective is. But if you're going to be a fair, objective commentator, you know, which is what we do here, it's Colomay and Colombe, right? That's the truth. Of course, the war is having an impact. The war is not only having an impact on the oil price, but the way that it works, like any economist will tell you is that when you have that kind of spike in prices,

13:26it has an impact on the rest of the economy. It flows through. So of course, it's going to have that impact. But that domestic problem, the actual capacity within our domestic economy and the productivity problem, they are all Australia's. They are all on the government's watch, on the parliament's watch. If you want to be a bit more general in terms of what the opposition provides support for because that's some of the critique from the government, you know, what support are we getting to cut back on some spending? That's what the Prime Minister sought to say and alternative policies as well. And so some of the populists in this debate, I'm going to mention one nation who want to put more money in your pocket, like with their superannuation plan, you would have more money in your pocket. I don't think that's very good for inflation, either David. So it's fair to critique all policies, all ideas about how to tackle this because something has to change or we're going to end up with inflation that gets stuck. And it feels like it. Exactly. Inflation was too high before the war.

14:28You know, it hadn't come down enough. Then suddenly you get this big impact of what's happening in the Middle East. The question then is, what does the government do in response? And what we hear this week from the Prime Minister in particular is the list of, you know, various cost of living measures that the government has put in place to help people, you know, whether it's tripling the bulk, building incentive, enabling more Australians to see a GP for free, urgent care clinics for free, tape, student debt relief. You know, you don't want me to go through the rest because it's one of those, you know, vomit principle ones that we've heard just so many times with the government. But the reason I'm mentioning all of this is, this is money the government is putting in people's pockets very politically, you know, popular no doubt. People will need that money for this and that. But it's all additional spending. Yes, they've got some offsetting and they'll say that they've, you know, found savings to make room for all of this spending. But is it enough? Should they be pouring out this new spending on all of these things at a time when inflation is where it is? This is the point at which we're at now where you've got to think, does more need to be done to rein in that spending,

15:32to bring that inflation down some harder decisions? And that's the key question that the treasurer and the government has to face. You mentioned that they're in defensive mode. The prime minister interestingly raised in his press conference, we got really defensive, I think, about all of these questions and contradictions between the Reserve Bank, governors, views and the treasurer's views. And he really sort of got, he didn't agree with the sentiment, David, I'm going to say diplomatically. But his whole thing was, well, wait for my e-fo, there will be more cost of living relief. And that sort of peaked my interest because I was like, you have put more money in people's pockets. Is that still a good idea? I mean, that was the approach wasn't in the first term. And I think that the prime minister and the government felt vindicated that by the time of the election in 2025, inflation had come off, interest rates had started to come down as well. So they felt like that plan worked, doesn't necessarily mean it's going to work again. And we know the government wants to do more cost of living relief.

16:32We know particularly they want to do more tax cuts with the money they're set to raise from the negative year in capital gain tax changes in time for the next election. But look, if inflation isn't back under control, is that really going to be a smart move? I don't know. I think that you're dead right. So we've got a week of just painful, painful economic news. For, I think, the people that matter the most Australians and then secondary for the government, right? Because obviously the painful news hurts them. That's all happening. Then it's the politics of who gets the advantage here. Now, seems to me, David Spears. At a time where interest rates are at a 15-year high, right? I'm not loving my mortgage right now. I'm sure many people are listening and feeling the same way. So, right? And going to the grocery store is still unpleasant,

17:33feeling at my car with petrol. I did it today. You know, I've got a big diesel car. I can tell you, it's not pretty. I'm praying for you. Yeah, I thought I had troubles, but that's worse. So all of that's happening. And of course, people they're listening, everyone do from pay scales, like, it's hard. It's hard. And certainly at the lower end, much harder. So all of that's happening. You would think that if you were the opposition leader of Australia, this would be managed from heaven, really. Like this is like all of the stars are aligning for you to rise like a phoenix, David Spears. And seize the moment, especially if you are, for instance, the Coalition, who have historically, at least, been seen as better economic managers, you would think these times would be soothing them. How's that going so far? Well, I guess we'll see. But so far, it's not going great. The polls really haven't shown dramatic improvement for the Coalition at all, have they? And you're right. This is the best set of circumstances

18:34you can think of for, particularly, a Coalition in opposition. Four rate rises this year. The highest level of interest rates in many years, real wage growth, going, well, it real wages in decline because inflation is so high. A lot of concern about another rate rise or two to come, fuel prices through the roof. I mean, yes, this set of circumstances aren't going to get much better for the Coalition. So if they cannot capitalize on this, that raises some very difficult questions for them. I would have thought. Huge and difficult questions. You can't have more politically useful circumstances. And I know we're sounding right crude. I want to acknowledge that because it sounds really crude. But I mean, this is a politics podcast. I'm talking about when all of your economic measures looking pretty bleak, you would think that's a pretty good time for an opposition to look like a decent alternative when people need an alternative. Now, of course, that's complicated by the rise of one nation,

19:35grievance politics. We mentioned at the start of the podcast, David Schubert, becoming the Greens leader. He wants to hit Labour from the left. The one nation is hitting Labour from the rise. And that's leaving, I think, Angus Taylor in a pretty difficult position trying to get some traction. He called it gymflation. I personally don't love that. I don't love the gymflation. I just, it doesn't roll off the tongue. But I get what he wants to do. He wants to hold the treasure to account. He's been the treasure of the whole time. Labour's been in power. I get the sentiment, Angus Taylor. But it's not, it's not rolling. And also at the same time, you know, talking about it being a dark day for households, which I think is right. I think lots of households feel that way, but they just don't seem to be hitting it. So unless they can turn that around and use this moment, yeah, I just think that I can't see what else, what else if it's not this? And to be fair, you know, Angus Taylor and the Coalition do have policies out there. I would argue more policies at this point in the term than Peter Dutton did in the last term.

20:37Things like indexing the tax brackets. But wait, wouldn't that be inflationary? Yes, if you offset it and we don't know that path of the equation, how exactly, you know, it all adds up. But if you offset it, maybe not, if you cut, you know, government spending enough to offset it, the fuel excise plant, look, whether you like these policies or not, they've got policies out there is the point and they do deal with cost living problem is, you talk to senior liberals, I'm sure you're picking up the same. They know that most people have no idea, or very little idea about any of this. It just has not penetrated. It has not cut through. And that's a marketing problem. Now, in terms of, you know, what happens if they don't get about set of this current situation? Look, I think the thinking is nothing, nothing's going to happen before the Victorian state election in November. And maybe nothing will happen before the New South Wales state election in March next year. These are the two big states, very important for the Liberal Party that want to have their, you know, federal colleagues tearing themselves apart. But either way, we're not far off this coming to a crunch.

21:38I think there is a window here that we're in over the next six months where, yes, clearly Angostaler needs to show some improvement in the polls off the back of, yes, some very dark times for a lot of households. He certainly does. And I at this stage think that the main beneficiaries on just the vibe of the thing and the politics are probably likely to be one nation and, you know, the insurgent populists, unless the new Greens leadership, Angostaler being, I think, more strident in the last day or so on some of these issues can shift that sort of dynamic. But it's very hard when it's baked in to shift that dynamic. And no one knows that more than the government themselves do because the talking points about inflation had a six in front of it when we got elected. What they must do with these talking points, I would like to give you a description, is they must get the piece of paper that's been published on. They must get a match and burn it.

22:40It does not resonate with normal people anymore. They have to articulate a vision for where the sunshine will come again. People don't need to be told by their government that they're feeling pain. When I have a headache, if you David Spears say to me, Patricia, I'm aware that you have a headache, I'm looking to you for the panadol, right? Not telling me that I've got the headache. Are you getting my point? And their panadol is all of these things they've announced that's going to take ages. They need to do something and it needs to be, it needs to be a game changer. It is not working, David. You look like you're about to disagree with me. Good luck to you. No, only to a degree to say it is not obvious what the panadol should be. Is it not? Is it not? Is it not? Is it not? That the government should do. I don't think it is. What do you think the obvious thing to do is? The spending question has to be part of the proposition. Yeah. That is also state governments. And the one thing that I have a lot of sympathy for Jim Charmers and the government on is when you look at inflation,

23:42everyone sort of puts all of the emphasis on the federal government and they are the not the only spenders, right? And so that must be really irritating. So I don't think that would shift it immediately. I just want to be clear. I'm not here as the sort of economic guru to tell you how you're going to fix things overnight. But you have to give people hope. People don't have hope, David. That's the problem right now, don't you think? The difficulty with any spending cuts, of course, is the losers. Today, Angus Taylor has written to Anthony Albanese suggesting a bipartisan task force on spending restraint. Now, PK, that's, you know, I guess someone said, is that stunt oppositions do this, try and buy themselves into the argument, bring themselves up to the level of government needs our help, we're going to help them fix the problem. But is it such a terrible idea that the two sides could find areas of agreement on spending restraint? I mean, they did it on the NDIS. And that was a difficult one. That was a big one. And yes, I know the savings haven't flowed yet. But is it worth the two sides sitting down

24:45to look at where spending can be cut? It would limit some of the political risk here for them. They're doing a lot of quiet work on, for instance, AI, in terms of bipartisanship at the moment, right? That's fantastic. On spending, though, it's such a key component of the political battle. Yeah, they're not going to drown everything. But no. Your question, I absolutely agree with you. Of course, like that, anyone who wants their country to thrive will agree that bipartisanship is in our interests. We want people working together and coming up solutions. I still don't think that I'm not convinced the coalition is being entirely legit in whether they are there for that meeting after the letter. There's always politics involved. To work constructively with the government. I'm not convinced of that. And to give them another little critique, a little tickle up, I think if you look at their latest announcement on fuel-exice cut above, you know, what is it? It's a hundred.

25:45If it goes above a hundred bucks a barrel for a two-week rolling average, then they would have the fuel-exice up to a limit of three months. Peek-a-tee, they're opposing what the government's trying to do in raining and spending on over 65s. Health insurance rebate, defense land sales. I mean, yeah, there are areas where the coalition could be more cooperative, frankly, than they are, right? Yeah, that's right. I, David, I think we've, people are probably, can I just apologise to listeners who think I know all the economic solutions? I absolutely do not, but I do know that people are so cranky. And unless they have leaders that can give them some answers, it's only going to get worse. It's not going to get better. So that's really the point I'm trying to make. That's it for politics now today. David, thank you. Thanks, BK. I'll be joined by Frank Kelly for the party room, Tora. If you have a question, send a short voice note to the party room at abc.net.au and we'll endeavour to answer it. See you, David. See ya.