A Reform pact is the Tories’ only path back to power

0:00The Telegraph Cooking up a storm, dressing to impress, staying fit and healthy. Whatever interests you, you'll find it in the Telegraph's newsletters, explore the complete collection from recipes with Diana Henry to fashion and beauty with me. Lisa Armstrong, get the best of our journalism, deliver to your inbox, visit telegraph.co.uk slash newsletters today. Can the right beat Andy Burnham? As the Tories gather for their conference in Birmingham, the two parties reform and Tory are not competing for first place. They're competing for second. What is the Blues' blueprint for claiming back power and will it involve a pact between Kenny Baithnock and Nigel Farage?

1:00The thing that reform has got, should we say, that the Tories can never have is they have this kind of anti-establishment vibe to them. They have anti-establishment rhetoric and that is what has allowed Farage to unite. What would otherwise be quite a difficult coalition of blue-collar voters, white-collar voters, the Red Bull, the Blue Bull, whatever. He's managed to find enough people who don't buy the hype, you know, they don't believe in a two-party system. And now joined by our political editor, Tony Diver. Tony, can I begin by asking on the eve of the Conservative Party conference, what is the mood? Do they think they can win? What comes second? I think it moves cautiously optimistic, actually. I think what we're about to see at this conference is kind of the second act of Kenny Baithnock, the first act being her attempt to win. The conference is kind of the second act of Kenny Baithnock, the first act being her attempt to wrestle control of the party, move it to the right on a lot of issues, try and take on reform.

2:01Now, if she's right and the general election is going to happen before 2029, this is her chance to really put the boosters under her party, try and get a slim lead in the polls. And that gives them the best chance of winning the next general election. So it seems like a lot of people in that team think that's possible. How has she taken control of the party? I think it's fair to say that Kenny on policy terms, she has dramatically changed the Conservative Party from where it was after the last general election on things like migration on the ECHR, on net zero, there have been some pretty significant policy changes. And I think the thing that she has behind her all of the time is these poll numbers that show that she's more popular than Conservative's brand. So we haven't actually seen much plotting. It's like a Conservative party without any plotting, it's a bizarre situation. Not a lot of criticism from MPs either. She hasn't really faced any big rebellions. How can they, when they look at the polls and they see that she is the most popular thing about their party at the moment, I mean, in more faces because you possibly launch a leadership challenge?

3:03Is any of this rhetoric around they can win actually credible? We've had MRP polls that suggest that they might win around 130 seats. One put them ahead of reform slightly, one put them behind. When you add up reform in the Conservatives, notwithstanding the fact that they seem to hate each other and say they won't do a pact, still not enough to take on a progressive coalition. You've then got them trailing behind Labour now that's been given a bit of a boost by Andy Burnham, and indeed possibly we haven't got the numbers yet, but that speech to the Liverpool Conference. So I get this whole, they're not dead and buried. There was a period after 2024 where you could literally look at them and think, oh my god, like existential crisis. And then people said, oh, they haven't been the most successful political party in all history for nothing, and that there's no way that you can get rid of them altogether. And they are kind of cruising along on that 19-20 at times 21%. But the idea of them winning the next general election, Tim?

4:06Well, let's ask Tony. Tony. Okay, well there's loads of questions on there. The first one is we don't know when the next general election is going to be. Yeah, and it's currently in the Conservatives' interest for Burnham to go as long as possible. Go right out to 2029, which is what he says that he's going to do, although of course there's a lot of skepticism about that, and a lot of people in his cabinet who think it'd be better to go early. So there's the first question that we don't know. The second question is what happens to reform and what happens to Nigel Farage. Now they've obviously had an extremely difficult six months or so, and they've suffered in the polls because of that. And so that continues for the remainder of this parliament, or if there is an early election, and they have to go based on their current numbers, then it will be more difficult for them. But I think even notwithstanding all of that, most people think that there is going to be some form of coalition or components as a supply deal required after the next general election on the current numbers. And that is why this question is whether or not there's going to be a deal on the right is so salient. But why won't anyone be honest about that? That's what we get so frustrated by. We keep saying to Tory politicians reform,

5:07but you're going to work together aren't you? Why don't they say now? Yes or no? Because they know. But why won't they say yes? Well, because the next day of next general election is kind of judgment day. Up until that point, up until the point that we have the results, we see the exit poll, BUC reads it out at 10pm. Labour and the Tory are battling it out, each to be the anti-Ferage Party. And it depends what constituency you're in, obviously. But there are so many three way marginal constituencies now, or the constituencies where reform is doing very well, where both of the two other main parties are trying to become the anti-Ferage vote. Now, obviously, if you're Kimmy Bade not can you start talking up the idea of a Tory reform pact? You're not going to get any of those votes. And so up until the point that we get the results, everyone is trying to position themselves as the most anti-Ferage candidate or the people who are most likely to stop a reform government. But once the results are in, you then have to work out what who's the largest party who's got any chance of forming a majority of it? And at that point, the calculation totally changes. So, yes, of course, everyone's going around now and saying that they won't do a deal with the reform,

6:07because you immediately lose the vast majority of the electorate, who hate Nigel Parage if you say that. So the Conservatives lose the lefties in their midst, reform lose the righties because they hate the Conservatives as much as zero use of right now. And so nobody can really say anything. But at the same time, when we look at that extraordinary majority, one by Boris Johnson in 2019, obviously it was the uniting of two very distinct and very contrary caucuses, the Red Wall and the Blue Wall. And we know why that happened. It happened because of the promise to deliver Brexit. Have the Tories given up on the Red Wall? And if they have and they're aiming for the Blue Wall, that criticism that Kemi has still got liberal Democrat tendencies, perhaps not personally, but within the party, that's going to be writ large, isn't it? I mean, we on previously podcasts have discussed this extraordinary position that Ed Davy finds himself in as Kingmaker. By definition, if he's Kingmaker,

7:07then the Tories need some of his voters. And quite a few of them actually, not just some, a lot of them. And just to say they did well in the local elections in suburban, southeast areas where you might normally think the Lib Dems would do well. So that's a very... That's a classic Blue Wall middle class vote. Well, this is the debate that's going on at the moment, but in the Conservative Party, is how, what is your electoral strategy? Because you can't really do both at the same time. And the great genius of the Boris Johnson campaign, of course, is that he managed to do both, but he didn't have the threat of reform in the same way. So it was a lot easier to do then. Now, the question is among Kemi's advisors, the question is, do you run an essentially defensive political strategy based in the South and the Southeast with one eye on some sea steen might pick up from the Lib Dems? Or do you run a very aggressive campaign against reform? Not just in a Red Bull, but also in the East, where actually you have a very similar kind of marginal, bizarrely, you know, in Essex, you now have a similar kind of marginal to what you might have been looking at in plays like Hartley Paul, but we're just without the existence of Labour.

8:07But for the Tories, it's then versus reform in both places. Yeah. There are the sort of more aggressive people within the Conservative think that you should go back after that great sort of Boris Johnson majority, others think that's unrealistic. And actually the best thing that you can do is try and stem your losses in the South while trying to be a good alternative to reform for tactical voters because it's not just the lefties in the Conservative party who would be put off by deal with reform. You also want to try and attract the genuine left-wing voters who ordinarily would vote for Labour, but perhaps don't live in a Labour marginal. That blows my mind. And could tactically vote for the Tories. That blows my mind that while we keep discussing an alliance between reform and the Tories, many voters are thinking about the alliance between Labour voters and the Tories in order to stop forage. Are you really saying that the biggest issue of the next election is going to be forage? Not necessarily Burnham. At the moment, at the moment that's how it's felt. It has felt like that for a while. Right. It obviously depends on what happens to reform.

9:08Yeah. And Burnham is trying to seize back the mic and he did that at Labour Party conference this year and he announced all of this massive stuff, you know, spoke to some from number 10 this morning who said to me, that the main point of this conference is that we're opening up a massive debate on a lot of these controversial topics. We're not fiddling around the edges. We're not scrapping over the bits of policy detail. We're trying to seize control of some of the debate here and have a proper conversation with the public. But if we went back to 1979, if we want the other person who led the Conservative Party by uniting blue collar and white collar voters, Margaret Fatcher, then really we're talking about a battle between the reds and blues, notwithstanding the yellows and the teals in the background, between people who want to go back to the 1970s and people who want to go back to the 1980s. That's what we're really talking about here, aren't we? And you could get quite a few working class people agreeing with the analysis that Britain's economy is broken.

10:10These could be soul traders, these could be white van drivers, these could be aspirational homeowners. They're certainly what Farage describes as alarm clock Britons who think that there are too many people on the take that they're getting up at 5am to basically pay benefits to people that don't deserve them. They're upset about mass immigration. They think it's taken British jobs. It sounds like a reform offer, but it's also a very fat right offer. These are people who are sparter own a bigger home, who aspire to pay off their mortgage, who aspire to pass down their inheritance to their children and their grandchildren. They might even aspire shock horror to send a grandchild to a private school that's now being covered by Labour with the VAT hike. So she could capture that audience, but that audience might more naturally lean towards reform where it's not so fearful that reformists had no experience of government whatsoever. I mean, this is the other thing, isn't it? If you're in big business, particularly with the donation scandal,

11:11if you are the ultimate sort of somebody working in financial services who is white collar, why would you necessarily back reform Tony? You can be very right leaning, but you might think, oh, I don't know Farage and his lot, they're a bit spivvy for me. Then she can mock that lot up. I'm wondering whether she could also mock up people who are a bit more kind of like not quite on the factory floor, but more middle managerial than top management. Well, yeah, I think that you're completely right. There is this kind of tension there. And if you're... I mean, the thing that reform has got, should we say, that the Tories can never have is they have this kind of anti-establishment vibe to them. They have anti-establishment rhetoric. And that is what has allowed Farage to unite what would otherwise be quite a difficult coalition of blue-collar voters, white-collar voters, the Red, all the blue, all whatever. He's managed to find enough people who don't buy the hype. They don't believe in the two-party system. And perhaps they're looking ahead to the next general election and looking at tactical voting and thinking about exactly what I do want to vote for Farage,

12:13because the idea that the other two parties are conspiring to stop him from getting into number 10 is something that's going to motivate me to get out there. But actually, if Byrd of his committing to a second referendum and is saying he wants to put rejoin in the next manifesto, do we then limp forward to 2029 and relitigate Brexit? Well, no one wants to do that. I'm not sure anyone cares about it. That's the thing. I'm not sure it's not a mobilizing issue. Okay, there'll be some remainers who will be thrilled by that. But one thing that worries me is pro-Brexit people. We've just mentally and emotionally moved on. So I just don't feel excited about that. I would vote against it, of course, but it's not something that mobilizes me in the way that it did in 2019. PR isn't something that anyone would be mobilized forward against necessarily. The great right-wing issue that unites all parts of the right right now is immigration. Yes. Not Brexit. And reform is better than that. Yes. Reform still owns the immigration issue, Tony.

13:15Yeah, I mean, that's what that's what the polls say anyway, at least. I mean, the Tories have put out a lot of policy on this. They're clearly trying to seize back the narrative on immigration. They have been damaged by the experience of the Boris Johnson years and the Boris wave. And Nigel Farage has been talking about immigration for the last 20 years. So he has an inherent advantage on this. And you look at the issue by his she polls. And reform is always streets ahead of every other party on immigration. It's hard to see how that's going to change in the next two years. Quickly before you go, Tony, when it comes to her speech next Wednesday, which we'll be covering with Belzon, do we think there's going to be a scrap inheritance tax pledge in there? We had scrap stamp duty last year. She's going to have to do something pretty headline grabbing, not least to compete with, you know, Andy Burnham's tearful, not tub-fumping, but very socialist or at tree last week. Well, it certainly sounds like it. I've heard that. It's not been confirmed by anyone, but I have heard that something on inheritance taxes coming. Inheritance taxes often one of the least popular taxes when you poll people.

14:16But it does affect a relatively small number of people. And so to our earlier point, this probably gets at what the Kemi-Babe Knock Electrical Strategy is for Act 2. Is it to target the wealthy and people who would normally be hit by inheritance tax or try and persuade them? Or do you look for something more broad-based? And if you're going to cut taxes, something like income tax thresholds would be something which would hit a lot more people. It doesn't look like they are looking at that. They are focusing on inheritance taxes, specific issues. So, Griffith seems to have ruled out so far a suggestion that they should reverse the increase to employers' national insurance. Which I thought was interesting, but again, they're dealing with the same economic pie that Labour are. I mean, it's not like there's loads of free money to throw around, is there? No, and when he elections is all about appealing to groups, isn't it? You have to decide who groups are and what you can do for them and how expensive it is. And how many groups you can afford to win over at the same time. That really is going to be the story of this conference. This is how the toys finally worked out, who they're for and who they're against. Tony Diver will see you in Birmingham at the weekend.

15:18Thank you very much for joining us on The Daily Tea. Thanks for having me. Coming up next, we're going to be discussing the reform side of the bargain with a author who has written a book about Nigel Farage's party, Nick Tyrone. I'm Dominic Nichols. I'm Frances Dernley. We're hosts on Ukraine the latest from the Telegraph. The world's most listened to podcast on the war in Ukraine with more than 120 million downloads. Every weekday since the full-scale invasion began, we've brought you on the ground reporting, expert analysis and the biggest interviews. From weaponry and military strategy to the reality of life in Russia and Ukraine, we've followed the conflict from every angle. Listen daily, wherever you get your podcasts. Nick Tyrone joins us in the studio now. You are a British Canadian journalist, author, researcher and political analyst and you've written a new book, The Rise of Reform.

16:20Let me just get this right. You self-described as a metropolitan liberal remaner. You delved into Nigel Farage's party and you quite liked what you saw. Yes, I would say that's absolutely the case. So I travel around the country. I didn't just speak to MPs or donors of people at the very top of the party. I spoke to hundreds and hundreds of activists around the country, loads of local candidates and they weren't what I expected them to be in lots of ways. What did you expect? I wasn't sure, but to some extent I sort of bought into the, well there's going to be a lot of, you know, racist. There's going to be a sort of far-right tendency. There's probably going to be a lot of football who look in, that kind of thing. And it wasn't like that at all. Most of the people who I met were very civically minded. They tended to come from backgrounds where they were nurses or ex-nurses or NHS in some sense. Ex-military was very prevalent, ex-police. And they were just people who were very, very concerned about their communities in the future of the country.

17:24Whether I agreed with some of the things that they thought or not was a different story to them being fundamentally kind of decent people. Was there a pattern to how they had voted before reform? It depended on where it was in the country. So, you know, if you were somewhere like Lincolnshire, a lot of people tended to be extoried. They tended to be voted for the Tories. Who voted Brexit, voted for the Tories, voted for Boris, felt let down by that for various reasons, usually around immigration. And so they have gone to reform. But if you went to say the Northwest or even the Northeast, T-side, you would find people who actually, a lot of people come from labor backgrounds. They were either labor voters or at least their parents were. They came from a family where voting labor was the norm. Some of, I met some people who had been labor counselors who had then become reform counselors. Right. And why they had crossed that divide was always very interesting to me. Was there, I know that what you're saying here is that we can't generalize. Yes. But what, would you say there was a typical narrative of why they had crossed

18:27from the party they'd supported for so long to... Yes. I feel like the system is broken. Like Britain isn't working. Britain's going in the wrong direction. They just don't see things getting better. They don't, they feel disappointed by both labor and the conservative party and they want something new. I'd say that's probably the closest like a... So this is not an astro-terf movement as we sometimes say. No. It's not something that really just exists online that's funded by a few billionaires and is all just about Nigel. Whatever, wherever a form has come from, it has become a serious functioning political party with a committed grassroots. Absolutely. The grassroots are real definitely. That was another thing in terms of expectations. I thought that that was a possibility. And in fact, if I go back to sort of the local elections 2025 and so that, the ground campaign was so nascent compared to where it was a year later. The growth in it is amazing. So it's not just that it's a real thing. I think it's still growing.

19:28And could this party continue to flourish without Nigel Farage as its leader? Because that's a real test, isn't it? That's a real test. It's a great question. There is something real there, but it's a question of whether that real thing manifests itself in like 14, 15% of the vote again without Nigel Farage there, or whether someone could come in and take over Robert Jenryk or whoever and then either keep it going or actually take it to the next level. Huge question. I think the problem would be, the thing with Nigel Farage is he sort of unites the tribe a little bit. Everybody can kind of see what they want in reform through the prism of Nigel Farage. That doesn't become possible and you could have a very fractious leadership contest, for instance, where what reform is has to be defined in a way that it hasn't been before. And I think that could be troublesome for them. But if I think they could navigate that, I think they could keep going up. Isn't it amazing that Nick has cited Robert Jenryk first and foremost as somebody who could replace Nigel Farage? That's the first name you mentioned. I mean, you did it. I did it.

20:28Zia, you probably doesn't agree with that neither does Richard Tys. Why did you pinpoint Jenryk there? I think he's someone that, in terms of the people that I met, I think, he was probably one of the more impressive people. I think in terms of his vision for the future of the right in Britain. I mean, I think Richard's great. And I think he does lots of things. I had a great interview with him in the book that's fantastic. But I think he sort of, I think Richard sees himself like he did his bit. You know, he really, I think people who don't know enough about the history of reform don't realize how absolutely instrumental Richard Tys was to the whole project. Again, he gave me a great interview where he outlines it all. And he really kept the party going for several years. And he basically had to take a massive step back when Farage announced that he was going to be in the world. And Farage announced that he was standing in placket and on sea. And you know, that perhaps did cause some internal divisions. What did you pick up about some of this information we hear about the reformed conservatives?

21:29Let's describe them as that. Be at war with the original reformers. I think it's slightly overblown. I think there was some tension in terms of, with the grassroots in terms of how many territories were coming in in such a short period of time. So it did slightly become like why are we taking so many people? I remember Nadine Zahawaii. I think just had nothing to do with Nadine particularly, but just the fact that it was just like one Tory, Jimenium was like, oh, he hasn't got a seat. He's not a big enough name. Why are we taking someone who hated us five minutes ago and suddenly rocks up and says, I want to be on your. Also, he hasn't been given a spokesman role for anything. No, which is interesting. It's much kept in the background. That is interesting. But you've called you a bit the rise of reform. Forgive me, Nick. Yeah. May you have to retitle the paper back, the fall of reform. The rise of reform. The rise of reform. The rise of reform. Because in the polls at least, I mean, they had this extraordinary high last summer where they were kind of like topping 35%.

22:33That's almost been halved in seat projection terms. And they're now down to the mid 20s. Why has that happened and how do they cope with it? And why do you therefore think that they can still form the next government? I think there are several opportunities for reform. I mean, I think they're going through a week period because you've got the combination of the Burnham Bounce and the fact that they've just had these sort of series of crises over the summer. But I think if you get past that, if Burnham has real trouble with the budget, which I think is a real possibility, problems start to happen in the economy, how Burnham deals with that. Again, maybe he rises to the challenge, maybe he doesn't. I think that offers opportunities to reform. And I think one of the things as well that's come out of labor conference is Burnham stands on the EU. I actually think that really offers something to reform. I think if Burnham can make the whole thing somewhat, at least in part, about Brexit, the next general election. I think that really offers something to reform because reform can be the strongest sort of Brexiteer party. I think it's really tricky. I mean, I think labor would go into that sort of saying on the EU at least, you know, Brexit's failed.

23:38We tried it out, really sorry, but the only way to correct the problem is to go back in, really sorry. Maybe some of you had hopes in it, but the Tory screwed it up. The only way we can fix it is rejoin. Reform can say the Tory screwed it up, but actually there's still life in Brexit. And do we really want to go through 2019, all that chaos 2020 again? No, we don't. Let's stay out. What you need is a leader who really believes in Brexit, which we haven't had so far. And I don't really, that really squeezes the Tories because what's the Tories message on? Well, I don't know because some people might say actually for all of his rhetoric and his kind of frontman role in the campaign, it was Boris Johnson that delivered Brexit in the end, inheriting a hospital pass in the Czechoslovak deal from Theresa May and turning it with Dominic Cummings' help into something vaguely passable. Of course, the Tories would be blamed for not capitalizing on our Brexit opportunities, but I think people associate the delivery of Brexit with Boris Johnson, not with Nigel Farage. Well, he's not in politics anymore, but Brexit aside, if the big issue next year is the economy, do you from what you've seen believe that reform has evolved an economic theory?

24:49Does it have a strategy? I mean, essentially, it comes from generic and it is essentially sort of that tourism, really. It's quite a traditionally right-wing economic platform. As in, we're going to massively cut spending. You've seen it laid out in terms of things around the benefits bill is just going to be massively slashed. That's their plan. Yes. So I don't think you can see it in any other way. I think, you know, thinking about what you were saying before about how thatcher managed to unite, you know, sort of an interesting group of people around her platform, reform could do the same thing, I think. They're not there yet, but I do think that they could do it. Again, if they sort of don't become their own worst enemies, as they sort of have done, I think, over the summer. You mentioned that if they had leadership contest, the tribes might go at it. Yes. And you talked about, in some parts of the country, they tend to draw from X-Tories, some from X-Labor.

25:49I personally feel an opportunity was missed for reform to become a distinct, populous party on economics, which might mean something a little bit more left-wing. Yes. And it's a path they didn't choose to take. No. Are there some people in the party who agree with me and think it's a pity they didn't take that path? I haven't, I'll put it to you this way. Yes, in a sentence, but I haven't heard anyone really put forward a real intellectual countercaseable. What that would, what that would look like when you say like, oh, because I understand exactly what you mean. And it's sort of a much more traditionally populous right. Well, I'll give you an example. It was the fight over the two child benefit cast. Which event, which forage originally supported lifting the cap, limited to British people. And then they dropped that policy because it looked like Generic had won the argument for saying no, we need to be anti-benefits and we need to be about fiscal prudence. And that, for me, was a real turning point in where the party chose to be thatch or right rather than something populous. I agree. Yeah, absolutely.

26:50I think they are kind of where they are. It would be difficult to see them doing a big lurch towards the economic left to a more stateless platform. I guess you never know, but I think at this point, it would seem a bit strange. And again, I think what you have is someone like Jen Rekus really got a really coherent idea of what he wants to do. I don't think there is a counter. Like I don't think there's a person reform that has a sort of counter sort of vision of what a sort of right leaning on immigration cultural issues, but left leaning on the economy. What that would actually look like. Okay. Finally, Nick, how pragmatic is Nigel Farage when it comes to some kind of post electoral pact? The argument would go as follows. If he wants to position himself as the kind of politician of the people, the prime minister of the people on the right, he cannot cut off his nose despite his face and not do a deal with Kemi. If it would result in labor being in power for four more years or something even progressively worst in his mind. Yeah. I think, well, I mean, so in this scenario is Nigel Farage the prime minister, I guess is the question.

27:53Yeah. Because if he is, then I think it's fine. I actually just do think he's fine because I think a large... Well, have one. I mean, he wins an outright majority. This isn't a conversation worth having. He gets the largest number of seats, but he needs confidence and supply or some deal with Kemi. You think Bavnost is going to be the junior partner to a Farage premiership? Well, that's a whole other question. So I'd say what Kemi would do in that situation? I'm not really sure what the Tories would do in that situation. I'm really really sure. But I think from a reform perspective, yes, they would say, well, here's our platform. Surely you agree with all of this. I mean, surely you agree with everything we want to do on immigration, everything we want to do on the economy. Where are the major differences really when it comes right down to it? Farage would do this, but Yusuf isn't going to do it and how does Gen Ric play this? I think at that point, I think a lot of this stuff falls away. A classic example would be 2010. The idea that the Tories and the Lib Dems would ever come together and form a government seemed totally ridiculous, but then needs must. Or did it? It was Cameron and Clegg. They were basically cut from the same cloth.

28:54Everyone, Cameron himself said he was air to Blair. Actually, if you look back on it, not that unlikely, there wasn't as much vitriol between the pair. I think some of the language around reform trying to kill the conservatives and made not ruling out PACs makes it very difficult post election, but mind you politicians change their minds. But when it's a win, don't they? If you're looking into the face of some sort of labor, Lib Dem, green, SMP coalition of some sort, I think that will probably focus some minds. Yes, it will. I have a final question. I do want to go back to the very beginning. Your experience of following reform around has that changed your mind. Ferrage sees himself as a last role of the dice to save. He's not about destroying Britain. He's about trying to save Britain either from the left or the even further right. Is that a narrative you've been sold on that actually reform his age, answer to reboot and save the system? Yes, because one of the things I conclude in the book is that for all the faults, and I do lay them out in terms of what I think some of the faults are.

29:58I think that we're sort of in a situation whereby you sort of you have a uniparty thing that we end up with, or you have some sort of coalition of the left, which I think will be a total disaster. Or again, that feels an actual possibility is you have a coalition of the left, which falls apart after a couple years. And actually at that point, Ferrage has gone, you end up with a sort of much further right party, which suddenly becomes very attractive. What, why is it a much further right party of Ferrage has gone? No, no, I don't mean reform necessarily. I mean, it could be restore or I just mean, I mean something takes that space in British politics. Yes, okay. Fine. It reformed fails. It's likely that a lot of the energy will just, he will go to America and all the energy will fall out of it. And then the space opens up for an even more radically right. What happened to the Tories in that scenario? Well, presumably they've been discredited if reform comes second, the Tories no longer look like the main party of opposition. Yes. So, and may cease to exist.

30:58I know we're, we're, we're paying for any Chess here. I mean, because Nigel is operating on the right, because he meets people who are angry, he can see what's happening at the periphery. Yeah. And he can see how the people on the periphery think and feel and that they are growing. And so he feels I have to do well to stop that from happening. I know, but then equally if the conservatives did fall away and something more harder right emerged, then righties who were more moderate would be seeking an alternative and with reform not there, you then see a Tory revival to bring it back to yours. This is a conversation. You see we're having this conversation in 1933 and I accept absolutely. That could actually happen actually and actually that could open up the space for a arrived conservative party. So it could get worse for the right before it gets better. I think it's the conclusion here Nick, but I would say one thing. But I would say one thing. Yeah, but I would say that I think there is a possibility opening up for the right here that I don't think enough people are talking about, which is it is sort of forming into a place where you see where the Tories are strong in the southeast,

32:02other parts of the south of England and where reform are really very strong in the Midlands, the north of England, Wales. If that worked out the right way. Yes. That could actually that could be something. It's basically going to with two parties repeat Boris Johnson 2019 potentially. Yes. Correct. Yes. I think that's a good way of looking at it. Nick Tyrone, thank you very much indeed for joining us on the Daily Tea. Thank you for having me. Thank you.