A Numbers Game | October 6, 2026 | Hour 3

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2:01Ola and holla and holla. Being told by Jason Stark, I said 99.1 WPLR. It's actually the cool kids say 99.1 PLR. That was part of the request though. Every radio station has a very specific way that they announce that they say their call letters. You got to let us know. I had it actually as PLR, but I thought I'd go official. And Mike Zill's Duke Knighty showed us the O body python. It's just a flesh wound image as a reflection of how Washington is going to throw Jaden Daniels back in the game this coming week. This is a flesh wound. Get back in there. Chris Heath, I think Drew just gave me all five millions plays. You know what? It is interesting that you say that Chris, because I definitely put Houston back up. Like as soon as he talked about Houston, I'm like, yeah, I completely agree with that.

3:01Yeah, I bet him on open. They haven't really moved though, haven't they? Houston? Yeah, it was, I got him at six throughout the seven. I don't know. Run the six and a half out there. I'll grab some six and a half here on the Texas. I agree with that. And real quick about the before we get to Mark Bortr to standing by to talk baseball with us, DVOA numbers just by comparison. Aaron Schatz has San Francisco still is the number one rated DVOA team through four weeks. He has these Niners as the six ninth, ten, eleventh, the best team ever through four games. And worth pointing out, I was bringing up their injuries. I mean, I'm going to, we got to say it every week until it happens. Haven't allowed a sack yet. Still incredible. You may wonder to yourself, hey, what about the Vikings? He's got the Vikings as the 12th worst ever for an O team. Yeah, since he started tracking this in the late seventies. As we mentioned earlier, Texans and Bucks, the third and fourth best O and four teams, since he's been, since he's been doing DVOA since the late seventies or track back all the way

4:04to late seventies, but his top seven San Francisco one, Jacksonville two, Kansas City three, Buffalo four, Baltimore five, Seattle six, Ram seven. So he's got the same seven, but in a different order. His eight nine ten, Chicago is eight. Minnesota is ten. His nine is not the Broncos though. His nine is the Carolina Panther. Wow. So there you go. Where are the Broncos? Fourteenth. There was a couple of spots I looked over there yesterday. There's a couple of spots that had Broncos. Very, very average. Well, these are, these are brand new off the press just while we're doing the show this morning. Let's talk some more baseball, nationally game threes in the division series today with the braves and the Dodgers not at up at one a piece. And of course, the brewers with a two to nothing lead over the best of five in the best of five series against the Padres, but we're back to San Diego tonight. Mark Bortr joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert at base winter is where you can find him basewinter dot com. Mark, good morning, sir.

5:06Good morning, Gail. How you doing, Kelly? How you doing, Mark? Yeah, I was very, that was very straightforward. Oh, do I am be leagered here with these playoffs? So the, well, first of all, I, you know what, I think we need to be a little bit more transparent because I don't think that this industry has enough of that. So I will be transparent and I will say that I lost with the Astros. I lost with the Phillies and I'm losing with the cleave, in the, in the first round. And I'm losing with Cleveland and the Yankees in the second round. And so it's, it's, you know, it's never fun when you do that, but, uh, I, this has been a challenging postseason, not from a modeling standpoint, but for, who are we putting in the model, Gail? And I think the white socks are pretty interesting case. Okay, well, let's start there. By the way, I like the word beleaguered. We don't use that enough. I have no one uses that word enough. The only thing I got right in the first round was the Padres beating the Cubs. I was wrong about the Phillies. I was wrong about the Red Sox.

6:06I was wrong about the Phillies and Red Sox meeting the World Series. So I'm right there with you. Let's start with the socks and the Guardians. These are not the, these are not the games that are played today, but the socks have a two game lead, two to nothing lead over the Guardians. So I got Joe Shea and earlier of all the teams that are up two to nothing. Talk about socks, brewers, rays. I think we all kind of agree. The socks would be the most likely to gack it. But what were you going to say about this series? Yeah, no, I agree. I still even, uh, and I hate to, to hold my position because sometimes, you know, you're blinded by your numbers. I did, don't, you know, blinded by the light as they would say. But you know, I still am showing value with the Yankees and the Guardians. And, and, uh, yeah, model a couple different ways. We're from a macro standpoint. And then from a micro standpoint, just looking at the, at the pitching matchups for each game coming up. And that's assuming, uh, the pitchers are going to be the pitchers. But, but I think even, even getting, you know, outside of that with a white socks, I think they've kind of, what did they say? They're over their skis.

7:07Somebody says that on the show. So they've been a little bit over their skis, particularly from a bullpen standpoint. You kind of look at their bullpen. And I did this this morning looking at the last two months. And this is probably the best stat to use. And it's never good to use one step. But if I did, I would use K minus BB. And if you look at the K minus BB, uh, from a bullpen team standpoint, from August 1st until the end of the season, uh, they were 20th. And I thought, well, maybe they got really good towards, uh, you know, the last part of September. So I did that as well. And they were 23rd. So I think that that bullpen thing is, is, uh, I think it's sketchy. The other thing too is, is, uh, uh, they're using these guys quite a bit. I mean, Grant Taylor, I think went for innings the other day. And now this is where I want to get at. Maybe we can talk a little bit about this before we get into the next segment. But I don't, I think the white socks are deliberately trying to deceive people. And the reason I say that is, is, you know, one of the best sites outside of my own, of course.

8:12One of the best sites in baseball and baseball handicapping is rotawire.com, you know, yeah. Uh, and you guys have great guys. Are you know, Erickson and Nick and, uh, I think that those are the two guys that I recognize from rotawire, but the site is really good. And they can, they can anticipate who's going to start, who's not going to start, who the bull guy's going to be all that kind of thing. And they've been off. And I'm going to go ahead and, and sing their praises because I got to play that, that, that kind of ties in for, for this card. But they were missing. And I think that that given the prowess they have for predicting starting pictures, that there was some deception going on. And, and like, I, the Eric Fettie was supposed to be the bull guy in game one versus the Astros, he didn't pitch. Sandland supposed to be the bull guy game one of the Cleveland series, he didn't pitch. Okay, so getting outside of rotawire going to MLB radio. Guys over there talk about great shows and, uh, they, they, great, great content on an MLB radio. Uh, they were talking about Grant Taylor. And they were saying that, you know, um, Vennable says, Grant Taylor, we're not going to run

9:15this guy's arm into the ground. And therefore, that the assumption last night was that he wasn't going to pitch. Well, guess who comes in and a thinning, not only pitches last night, pitches that inning in a half. So I think there's some Tom Foulary, that, you know, if you will, by the white socks, as far as who they're going to start. So if you don't know who they're going to pitch, it makes it somewhat difficult to model. But I will fall back on those, those, those, those mole pins statistics from, uh, you know, the last part of the year. And I just, I don't think that that mole pins is strong as they've shown so far, Gil. Well, well, first of all, let's, let's just circle back to that for a second. You don't think there's, I mean, if you're the white socks, isn't that a good strategy to deceive, right? That's, that's, oh, absolutely. I, you know, I've been telling people this for years. I've been telling people if you've got three guys that can start, I'd go to the press conference and say, you know, I don't know who's going to start. It's one of the three guys. And, uh, you know, because nowadays, these guys, and there's, there's, there's computer generated simulation you can use. There's actually the pitching machine simulation where you can simulate all of these guys stuff.

10:18And what if it makes sense if you're taking bounding practice to simulate the guy that you're going to be facing? Well, if you don't know who you're going to face, then, then it's, it makes it harder to simulate. But I think even coming back for me at least, I, I want to think that people aren't nefarious Gil. You love the words I'm using today. But I want to think that people are not nefarious. But even if, you know, with all of this medical, uh, tracking data, and we have it as, as, as human beings in, in United States civilization with our, with our, uh, our watch, our, our Apple watch. Now, we can know how we slept the day before, you know, what our heartbeat is, heart rate variability. Think about what they've got, uh, in these front offices. If they're a good organization, all the health data that they have for them. And so maybe they don't even know, maybe they think they're going to do David Sandland. David Sandland comes in and you say, hey, you didn't have enough deep sleep last night. We're going to use this other guy. So there might, it might not be as nefarious as we think. But, but you're right. Getting back to what you said, if I would be nefarious, I would be, you know, I don't know who's going to pitch, you know, yeah.

11:19So, so, so that, and I think getting back to handicapping, it makes it very difficult, uh, to handicap a single game when you don't know who's coming in and out as a pitcher. And perhaps the team themselves don't know. And, and you look at a guy like, like, I know one of the players that, uh, uh, Joe had today and it was well thought I was good play, uh, was, was a sail under. But what if sail comes in and like, oh gosh, his, his RSI on his elbow and his shoulders great. And oh man, he, his deep sleep was over an hour last night. Well, we can, we can run this guy. And so we don't know this stuff, but, but anyway, so it makes it challenging. And it really harkens me back, Gil, to the regular season. And let's go with these monthly markets where you have just this a large amount of data and a larger sample size to run it. You know, there is a method to that madness. So no play, by the way, the white socks installed in game three tomorrow is a minus one 25 favorite. We do not have the official starting pitchers. We do have the official starting pitchers tomorrow, for game three at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Max Fried going for the Yankees,

12:24Nick Martinez starting anyway for the Tampa Bay rays. Yankees are minus one 55. Do you have a play in that game tomorrow? We'll get to the day. I love this game. That's what the line is. I've got it. Now, see this again. This is priced with Martinez going out on a what he would he is in the model four and a half in and say, and I've got a price at like minus two 90. I don't like Nick Martinez. I think he's been living an advanced, you know, a regression nightmare. And I think it's it's about ready to regress. I've got him in the model. Well, I've got him a little bit. But no, he's he's worse than I thought. He's like 20% worse in an average picture. I've got free 27% better than average picture. So that's a great price minus one 55. I get down on that. OK, we'll get to today's games here on the other side from the beleaguered. Thinking about being nefarious. A harkening back. Base winner, Mark Bortcher coming back on the other side on a numbers game at visa. These sports betting that were. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative collitis symptoms, every choice matters.

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14:40We go deep. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some Maglatide Injection 2.4 mg, a GLP1. Call 1-8334 Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? We go deep. The number is game on Vison Vs. 4's Betty Network. Back on the numbers game live from Circle Resort, Casino downtown Las Vegas, Kill Alexander, Kelly Bidler. Don't forget everybody's picks. Mark Bortr is included. I add Vison.com for subscribers Vison.com slash picks. You can sign up now. There's Vison Prointra offer for as little as 999 daily best bets, exclusive betting splits. AI power prop tools and matchup analysis, access to all betting guides. Vison.com slash subscribe. Real nicks. This is so true. I resemble this remark in this tweet.

15:42He goes, will you please do all of us Cleveland fans a huge favor, Gil, and bet the socks to win the series. It seems the only time Cleveland plays well is when they're taking money out of your pocket. Really would appreciate the help my brother. The Cleveland Guardians are the bane of my existence. That's a solid tweet. It's a great tweet. We were alluded to this earlier. Where I said, as soon as as soon as it doesn't matter, right. They start sucking. So true. It's like my stealers under wind totals, bets for so many years. Pick 10. Oh, pick 10 has a bone to pick with Mark Bortr. You thought I was the only target here. Oh, he says sorry, but mark you mark. Mark needs to look at what Martinez has done to the Yankees this year. He's been dominant. Sorry. I'm sorry. What happened? What happened? What happened? Bob Thomas Prime says Bortr got a new facoras. And will he be betting, listening on delays to forgive me if it's been discussed, but keeping my Falcons fan fueled optimism and checked y'all feel that if the Falcons beat the Ravens, we should consider betting Panthers to win the NFC South.

16:43Would be a big number at that point. I don't know how big it's going to be because the Panthers getting a lot of respect. They're favorite right now. Yeah. I mean, it might be two to one. A little bit. Oh, back to back to pick 10 on Bortr. He says, do you know where he can stick that regression stuff? I'm not saying the Yanx won't win, but now pick 10 is very angry. Mark Bortr. Mark Bortr joins us once again, Mark shots fired in terms of Nick Martinez performance versus the Yankees, which brings up a handicap in question. How much do you factor in or what's the sample size necessary for you to care about B versus P batter versus pitch? It needs to be bigger than a year, but I think that there's. So this is actually a pretty good segue, Gil, a professional segue into, I think, with the ability to be super technical and and use machine learning and use a pipeline and that sort of thing is a handicap or I think that what would be more compelling for me would be to be like, OK, what is what is Nick Martinez?

17:46What kind of pitch mix or repertoire or what are similar pictures? I think this is probably a better, better explanation. So we look at the closest pictures, 10 pictures to Nick Martinez and what the Yankees batters have done with those that particular group of pictures. And for me, that would be more a more compelling thing because I think that we run into the to the sample size and if a guy's, you know, eight of 20 off a guy is, is he showing a skill, what perhaps, but in my opinion, no, I think you just need more. But I think what's really cool about modern handicapping is that you can, you can do this now and speaking of modern handicapping, I'll say way this because this is a really good example of using this particular, I guess, pool of type of pictures into a play and road a wire has a tool. And it's brought to road a wire, I think, via inside edge, which is, which is another great company, but they have a match up score, not only did they have that, but they also have a how it's called a match up note. So it's called inside edge on road a wire.

18:55And this is my only play today, Gil, I like manning Machado over one and a half total basis, you can get it a plus 125. And this is kind of my example here. So much, this is, this is from road a wire inside edge, but I'm doing my own, my own modeling on my analytics platform as well, but Machado has an OPS of 929 in 97 at bats against right handers who rely heavily on the change up like Dustin May. So for me, that's, that's a better example of, you know, types of pictures and that sort of thing. Gil, okay, makes sense. As far as that game on the side, though, no play for you in the Padres, I don't, I don't have anything in these games and, and this is what's. And I'm going to do a public service announcement to you. So like, you know, you have these games, these games are priced really well. If these were in the middle of the regular season, if this, if this was these two games were being played on August 23rd, they would just be like a game. They would just be like a site like you're not going to play these games. There's no value in them. And that's kind of what we have here.

19:58And you'll see this and not necessarily I'm in Veecin's great. The handicap is here the information talk about great information. Jensen did a play yesterday on Gavin Williams over walks. I thought that was really a beautiful play. Gavin Williams striking out 11 and not winning that that rarely happens in in in majorly baseball, but that was a really good place. So anyway, I'm not talking about Veecin the capters here are really good. But you see throughout this industry, like you're going to see people trying to pump up plays today. And it's just, it's just a bad card right to fruit for today, Gil. Yeah, we say it in football. If it's in the middle of the 1 p.m. Eastern stand up, we say this about Thursday night football games. If this game were in the middle of the 1 p.m. window on Sunday, would you play this? That's that's kind of like a barometer to start considering a play on a Thursday night just because it's there. Doesn't mean you have to play it. Same applies with the with the baseball games. But there's a lot of people listening here. You're going to be like, well, it's there. What are we doing? Right. We got to do something. So let me just.

20:58I gave you that manny prop. That's the only thing that I'm going to play today. Let me. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry. No, I was just going to ask you about some of these things historically and then moving forward. Where do the white socks rank for you? In other words, in terms of improbability that they are on the cusp of a championship series. Historically, did were you? I don't remember you being over on them this year season, when total. Were you? They've really overperformed by my numbers. It's it's and it might be. Gil divine intervention, you know, because the Pope and but but I mean, no, they're. Look, they're they're. I don't even think they should have got there. And I was on Cleveland to win that division and that that worked out for me pretty good. But yeah, they're totally overperforming. I think that they're going to they're going to get smoked. If they get into the oh man, I'm going to go to hell as a Catholic as a man growing up for Catholic. But but I think they're going to I think that they should. Now this brings up another point, Gil, and I hate to get philosophical.

22:01But maybe I'm in a philosophical type of a mood. So I say, well, they're going to get smoked by the Yankees or the race. Well, the reality is it's a seven game series. If they get the white socks get there and anything really could happen within the realms of probability, I think that I would probably price a series about minus 300. Either way, minus 300 on the socks currently, you mean? No, I would probably price if the Yankees and of course, it'll be it'll be more of the Yankees get there. But if I just had to think I would I would give the Yankees or the race a 75% chance. Oh, got you. In a get over the white socks in an potential matchup with the white socks in the A S C S got you. Okay. If we look at the board right now, we just flashed up the world series, props, we also flashed up the pennant. Is there any valid given the numbers now? In other words, I think the conversation of okay, Braves Dodgers is one piece, but we have the two to nothing deficits with the Guardians with the Yankees with the Padres. Is there value on any of those three teams? Let's just let's forget about the pen and the world series for now in winning their respective series.

23:09Yeah, it depends on what the series prices are. I think that like I said, the Guardians and the white socks. I thought were valuable to me, but I don't know what the series price. I can tell what they are. I can tell you what they're. Okay, Padres are $6 $6 dogs. You might be able to find even longer than that on the on the Padres. The what's the other side? What's the straddle on that? Oh, it's about. It's near it's almost $3 straddle. That's what I'm looking at. Well, we're showing what we're showing here in the in the National League. We're showing even better on the Padres 71, but yet it's a $4 straddle. Brewers minus 1100 Padres. Yeah, I've got I've got the Brewers at minus 925 right now. Okay, let's go to the American League ones. Well, actually, I mean, Braves Dodgers Dodgers or minus 170, but that games tied up at one one game of piece. We're showing minus 150 on the screen here at draft Kings. The in terms of the other two and O's to O series, the white socks or should be the guardians are plus 520. I'm saying we're showing plus 550 on screen. That's a two and a half dollar deal there. White socks minus 800 guardians plus 550 and the raise Yankees raised minus 750 Yankees 5 to 1 over a draft.

24:23So they're so both of those have value from a macro standpoint. That's just this is this team strength. I've got the Cleveland should be plus 424. I've got Yankees should be plus 496. But then when I drill down into the available starters and how that's going to shake out and stuff and Nick Martinez is part of this. I don't think Nick Martinez is very good. I think that both of those teams believe it or not based on the available pitching and the matchups that I have are about 25% each. So that would that would indicate like I think both those teams have value and not only that. So you're looking at it should be like plus 300 based on 0.25 or 25% probability. So both teams should be plus 300 based on I think maybe a little bit better look at it, but either way they're good good value. So how about this parley, you know, bass winner parley. You know what you get you want plays. This is that well research play. Both of the guardians and the Yankees to come back. They win their series and it pays 38 to 1, Gil. Okay. Is that a recommendation? Is that a base winner recommendation based on value? I guess so that is a good. That's a good 38 to 1 parley as good as it gets. Mark will end it on that. Enjoy the last three weeks of baseball till 2028. Sorry. That skills always fun to be on his show. Mark Bortgen everybody at base winner. Philosophical mark. That's right.

25:44Base winner dot com for more base winner dot com. I like a philosophical mark. We'll come back survivor sweat. If you're in survivor. I'm you're thinking about. I don't know. At some point perhaps having others invest in your entry. Let's talk next on a numbers game at visa. These sports betting network. Numbers game on visa. These sports betting network numbers game. This game wouldn't part of the number of those listening in Spanish. Gill Alexander. Kale by the law hanging out. Circle. Just talking football. It's talking baseball. Talking other things. Best time of the year. Best time of the year. And whoa. I always freaks me out when I look up at one of the screens. Mind us is black. I'm not sure. Usually not screened back there. NBA betting guide completed last night. Nice. Great work by Zachary Cohen. Contributions for Kelly Bidlin. Contributions from myself. Jonathan Vontobl. I think I'm assuming. JVT was a little quiet in the group chat. Yesterday. We're exactly. I were going back and forth on some NBA things. Yeah. We got two some NBA bets here over the next couple weeks.

26:55I'm going back to the season in two weeks. Preseason games go already going college basketball and pro basketball right around the corner. Dylan Brooks. It took all of six minutes of gameplay before somebody choked him in a game last night in a preseason game who was choking him. Collins. Oh yeah. John Collins. God. I was saying covered him in high school. John Collins blanked on his first name. Shrek McVey in Bidlin territory in Florida for the week. Can't tune in live as I try to wrangle my kids on the beach. By the time I listen to Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight. Cheers. Nice. Shrek wrangle those kids. Chance Copperpot. I 100% agree with Mark on this as a MLB player prop caper myself head to head. This is the last thing I look at it really means very little pitch mix is way more important. Chance back in my days of handicapping baseball. All summer long last decade. I always said B versus P batter versus picture. The last thing I ever looked at you need about a 50. At bat simple size for it to matter. You know what it reminded me of I didn't want to didn't want to cut Mark off because it was great point when it was roughly around there with golf handicapping.

28:01We do something very similar and you'll hear West Reynolds bring this up a lot. I don't look at him as much but he does a great job with every tournament that we cover of bringing this up comp courses. It's the same sort of idea right maybe it's a golf course we haven't seen a ton of we've only seen it once or twice or not at all right what are course profiles that similarly fit that one that we've seen played that we can draw some data off of that that's what it was really reminding me of when we were talking about it because I you know by the way and I love Mike Cruko who just retired from Dodd from being the Giants broadcaster. You know his famous lot onage is onage right when a batter would you get up there the stat would be like a batter's five five for nine against whatever picture. And if that onage resulted in a in a hit. Onage is onage would come up but if it didn't it would just kind of go away into the ether right there's a confirmation bias involved that but to be meaningfully predictive you got to have a more robust sample size Sam Senegalia. Drew is just in talking about drew dnsc Drew is just another pretty hater.

29:03Dax road record is pathetic McDonald is two and one again Shanahan lost the opener in Seattle last year perhaps Brock can say the MVP talk with a good showing on Sunday of course I have met 25 to once so maybe it's a bit by. Well you know what I will say Sam I love Brock pretty. Well I have him pretty much was a couple years ago I had the bet on him to win MVP and then he had that game against the Raiders was the get no not get some Raiders but he had some game where he threw like it's a gunslinger it's going to happen it's a gunslinger right. I don't have him this year so you got a shot also I think I think I can defend Drew here he's pretty he's a pretty big Brock pretty guy actually what Drew was pointing out specifically there was grabbing a number on Dak Prescott before he thinks it's going to get way way shorter. You know who's a big Brock pretty guy like myself cleave TA. Big Brock pretty guy alright we talk about the circus survivor earlier hope you got to see the options will put it up on on social media on Twitter and beyond our Tuesday survivor segment of options to play week five in circus survivor or whatever survivor you're playing in your neck of the woods.

30:08That's right as far as circus survivor is concerned survivor sweat which crack and I have alluded to on many occasions we talked about last year. Yeah we talked about it for a long time now the interesting thing about survivor sweat and by the way Mazel to the people who came up with survivor sweat the creators of this website because the context which crack and I usually talked about it last last year was when we were when we were considering investing in circus survivor entries him more than me. But Fesec did this also the going rate was always less than the actual value pro rate so in other words let's say let's say the actual value of a you know based on based on number of entries left based on total pool I always give it out so you do a great job of updating constantly throughout the week. So currently right just as an example currently with with just under 6000 entries left in this year's circus survivor the actual retail value of every single one remaining is $4,189.5.

31:14Now that is that that does not delve into what teams have been used what teams are left in each remaining entry it is just simple math of 25,000 17 million dollars 25 million 17,000 dollars pardon me divided by the number of entries left and that's how you get to that number that's the that's the simple math on that. Um where was I going with that oh so when you would invest in other people's entries in years past before a survivor sweat existed you would always get it at a discount. In other words you weren't going to if it was worth 10,000 let's just make it an easy number if the intrinsic value of a remaining entry was worth 10,000 and you wanted to buy 10% of it you wouldn't actually buy it for 1000 you'd usually buy it for a tick less ever since survivor sweat has come around people are willing to pay not only actual value. But over the actual value of that percentage yeah this is the biggest ever this is the biggest sort of development of all of this when it comes to secondary markets on circus survivor entries and I'll point out a couple if you're watching at home or scroll through just what survivor sweat looks like so you can get an idea of that but yeah I'm just looking at it right now they've got the total price will set up for circus survivor what the average entry value is and then their last sale which is well over that average price because it went full

32:35for $4,850 the board 90% not even 100% yeah which again someone old school or like myself I like I can't I hear something like that and I just sort of shake my head right but hey the market is the market it should be noted that circus that that even though the site is survivor sweat dot com there's also a circle millions entries being offered for a percentage right like someone could put up a 50% of my entry for X amount circummillions so it the reason that this there's two reasons why this website is so long. One it looks great let's just talk about the superficial part yeah it looks fantastic and I'm a big sort of like squirrel attention guy where it's like if it doesn't look that good I'm not that into it but it looks great I'm like hey what's this is awesome the more tangible and the real reason it's so awesome is because before this to monetize your entry especially in the late going it was just so much more difficult you would either have to like the Joe Peta method was accumulating tons of capital right and then hedging away.

33:35Based on what other people had left as well in other games at a given week or there was simply negotiating with a random person who either contacted you or you found this is just hey here it is it's simple it's clean and circle recognizes way easier I mean I'm just I'm thinking of past examples of as you're talking about we've heard of horror stories with the trying to hedge properly or to find other people and can you trust these people that's the big thing at the end to trust once it's said and done hey what if that person ends up winning and you invested them you were like always worried in the past hope they are true to their word and I get my amount well this is all now right it's all there what is the same black and white but it's all there in beautiful color so the other thing that they do wonderful and there's tons of things on the side you will see the marketplace shows everybody's entry the percentage they're offering the ask price you can negotiate by the way but the ask price for it and as Kelly just you know here's another example

34:36actually retail value I just said was over four thousand dollars of each remaining entry not considering what people have left what people have picked but after four weeks is that really something that should be analyzed that closely because only been four weeks you know you're if we're 15 weeks into it you'll have a better understanding of who's got the more valuable entry then you do now but here's one someone's offering 99% of their survivor entry for $8,900 that's their ask price you ain't got to pay it but that's what they're asking right now I wouldn't pay it but I'm just saying that's what makes it so interesting the other thing they do it I alluded to this I think earlier on the show or yes I don't even know if I was on air or off air I don't know when um but in addition to just having the marketplace of entries that are actually being offered percentage of which are being offered for sale they also take the entire survivor pool of the remaining entries again just shy of six thousand these include every entry not just the ones that are being offered percentage of being offered for sale and they power rank them based on what you've played what you have left so I just took a look at really cool yeah this is super cool because if you're in survivor you don't even want to sell just go check out where you're at yeah you can search your entry name yeah so you don't have to like scroll through it all you can search with the search function search your entry name now I I have two left one was seventy fifth and one was one oh six in the power rankings but it's not really seventy five and one oh six because they do this weird thing where they don't like properly than

36:04say the next position if there's a if there's a multi entry tie so really like my seventy fifth is like power ranked 700 and something out of almost six thousand shout out to four underscore faunzy and bean counter their number one and two who are the top two they're they are tied one tied one both use the panthers the raiders and the giants now again that's why because the the giants is the big one right there right which I considered playing but didn't in the end but after four weeks can you really read into that probably not that much but we have this discussion after week 10 after week 15 then the power rankings become really interesting because in a shop situation late right some people are going to look at their survivor sweat power and be like a mind's way better than yours right that kind of thing anyway check it out survivor sweat dot com we will highlight entries in the coming weeks buy not a goodbye that kind of thing moving forward well we kept the bets next on a numbers game if you like youtube you'll love youtube premium hi i'm Sean Evans from hot ones and i want to tell you about youtube premium

37:12it has offline downloads so you can watch without wifi background play so you can lock your phone and it still plays baby oh and it is completely ad free yes i said it ad free try youtube premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium trial eligibility varies terms apply cancel anytime i don't know about you but i get pretty excited when football season rolls around that's why i always make a stop at total wine and more before kickoff whether it's craft bourbon cold beer or ready to drink cocktails it's easy to build a lineup that keeps everyone happy and when i'm getting everything ready for game day it's nice knowing i'm getting the lowest prices make total wine and more part of your game day tradition spirits are not sold in virginia north carolina drink responsibly be twenty one a number is game on visa and these sports betting network

38:13juice real in full effect winning sports bets just got easier with a big update to juice real if you're not familiar juice real is a free app that tracks your bets and breaks down your results with no manual entry needed connect your accounts for more than three hundred sports books and your bet history loads right in everyone on the app gets ranks you can see who the most profitable profitable bettors are and copy their bets and now with juice reals new auto tail feature you can have those picks placed for you automatically make sure you have the app downloaded it is free that's juice real juice like orange juice Kelly and real are EEL like a fishing real juice real thanks for clarifying on the juice guys i appreciate it on behalf of all my people always laugh when we did this in the past that they don't know the real the style are EEL it is it is like fishing real uh game juice real is awesome though whether you're doing it there or somewhere else you gotta be tracking bets like this and be able to pull up history and outlook and how you do a certain we were just situations right teams yeah we were just talking about how good looking survivor sweat is that looks real good too

39:16juice real yeah i'm big into looking good on these things uh the numbers guys guard dern he says i love this show i apologize for when life gets in the way and i can't listen thanks man you don't have to apologize we appreciate it everybody's life gets in the way yeah we can always listen to the show back on the uh on the vson app or podcast the podcast which we never mentioned like rate subscribe a numbers game podcast well let's talk about the beating the book podcast and then you know the the vson app and we never talk about the numbers game podcast you can check it out that way too leave a comment yeah tell Andrew Maxwell how how good or bad of a job he's doing so there's the number 11 that's right nemesis enforcer reminding me he says it was Lamar and the ravens that killed that pretty MVP play a few years ago Monday or Sunday night game oh god that was so bad i recall even i texted me like it's over in one fell swoop john b not that john b but another john b he says always responding to chance copper pots tweet earlier how uh you could take the boy out to dc but not dc out of the boy about me he says i do love how analytical gill is for most

40:19things and then the homerism comes out at times with the taco holders and then he adds in parentheses and i object to this he goes and sometimes forty nine or even though he denies the forty nine or zoma is i do not like the forty nine or stop it god all my safer cisco friends are like he does trust me he does not like the four years trust me audience picks up on it too i love a guilt guilt kind of lost the not it was like four years ago i had anything what what in my history suggest that i like the forty niners just because i had a lead that way i had a bet on Brock party all right i just feel like you often are high on the niners and i think it's very okay look man you okay that's fair you've got heavy ties to Washington dc in san francisco like it's okay i'm not saying it but yeah no it is it is not okay because if you grow up a skin's fan that is what you are sorry i mean like i've heard you be a lot more lot nicer and a lot higher on the golden state warriors over the past seven years of us working together the watching

41:19the wizards those are the most beautiful they are the most beautiful thing in sports a brand's a good point it's a good comeback a brown down in jungle land uh he says gillian kelly survivor talk but losers edition he says in the you have to make uncomfortable picks thought process wouldn't you have to consider the forty nine or this week oh no that's interesting so he's saying speaking of the niners which by the way we were just talking about we didn't plan that why uh he's got he is considering playing kelly with a big uh what no no i like is there something i'm missing i'm not trying to be a jerk about it for those for those who are wondering the niners are at the seahawks uh a brown i have no idea what you're talking about i would never make that play what what what is your angle there because you think yeah i just really i mean i was wondering if there was some massive injury or something i'm missing in a mechal you uh you sex going to be out but i'm actually i kill i'm waiting to see where that line moves this week i'm kind of intrigued by the niners in that game see i don't just been a little little slow to get everything rolling this uh this is i cannot endorse a

42:20niders boy uh in los vegas five one four he says yo r-i-p the great r and b the great r and b singer freddy jackson has passed we know about freddy jackson kelly nothing rock me tonight you are my lady okay you are a lady i know god that's uh that's tough i went to a freddy jackson concert back in the day um you are my lady would be the most famous i would think for him um i already forgot the blinded by the light lyrics weird or revved up like a douce another runner in the night wrapped up like a douce another runner in the revved up revved up like a those are such hot those are such seventies lyrics yeah uh by the way please don't ever step over uh step on freddy jackson's r-i-p ever again you won't have to because it's only happened once but r-i-p of freddy jackson uh prop points follows his top of the hour let us not sleep on that and coming up the guru john hanson gets ready for week five by giving out a uh list of fantasy players he

43:21thinks fantasy managers should trade four and trade themselves and he'll reveal his top ten waiver wire pickups prop points top of the hour love it right here at the network followed by money moves with story monitor Tony Jonathan von Tilburg follow money with Mitch and Paul a little later on you got some long shots to record here in a couple hours skull long shots and and the megapod beacuse by popular demand also first of all by scheduling change this week but i think by popular demand we are going to move the megapod permanently to wednesday good good call i didn't it didn't used to do that it was always thursdays because you just wanted as much information as possible but there seems to be a clamoring this year for an earlier megapod because we did it a few times at the beginning of the year by schedule we did a couple times so i think we're going to do it wednesday permanently this week's guest wednesday mic pritchard pritch please pritch please where's my pritchard vent we got to get him on the show i miss pritch i texted him yesterday i go hey if you're still in the football talking business you want to come on the megapod he goes i was waiting

44:23for this call was waiting for this text yeah that's such a mic pritchard response pritch please the yeah come on you know i was going to text you trips that i've that i have scheduled with people on this network or guests on this network mic pritchard and i are going to go party in tokyo one day that's all i know we've talked about it for years i say some one of these days you know i have partying in tokyo for those in the atl mic pritchard veteran of freak nick for those of you of a certain age you know exactly what i'm talking all you kids today think you're out there parting you have no idea none there's the beating the book podcast right there you can subscribe download subscribe rate review scan the QR code for beating the book again megapod tomorrow i love the wednesday move i want to speak for everybody out there i love the wednesday i think just more time in the week yeah consume nfl content before games get go yeah i you know again you can get you can get nipped in the bud by this like a Lamar jaxon news this morning right if that happens thursday or that happens friday and we have best bets on

45:25stuff but it just seems to be the uh the evolution of things as far as bets that we have made i have to this week that i made this were based on guessing lines yesterday guessing lines also part of the beating the book feed browns plus two and a half against the jets i want to i ferment to as drew how he feels about that line he didn't have a play on it though browns plus two and a half against the jets um where does air in shots that's a good question where does air in shots have the browns and the jets like the over in that game i i was a little surprised that that was one of the sides you jumped to right away i just didn't really didn't think much about that one when it came out air in shots has cleveland 24th and the jets 25th so i am directionally correct on this one i couldn't believe that the jets were favorites in this game i got the browns plus two and a half i know they're on the road so you can you know debate that but i got the browns plus two and a half and i got the ram's minus two and a half that i bought down to yesterday um if josh allen is hurt as drew suggests hey all the better not that i'm wishing the worst for josh allen i want him to be okay

46:26but all the better for the bet i am going to add the houston texan's next though i will point that out that's coming up here i'm i'm gonna make this bet here right after the show if not if not while you're giving out your bet there are six and a half's available so a lot of sevens but a couple rich six and a half still out there i got six and a half minus one twenty one on the texan's yep that's pretty good that's pretty good i like that uh chargers last winless team 11 to one Vikings last undefeated team 11 to one i made these a couple weeks ago um we're feeling more confident about great question so there's only there's five winless teams left there's only three undefeated left so you would think hey there's only three undefeated left you're more confident on the Vikings the other undefeated's being however the niner's and the chiefs chiefs buy niner's at Seattle i'm gonna say the Viking still yeah you thought i was gonna go to the charges if i but i'm gonna say the Viking still because if the Vikings can beat the saints this week i have a buy the next week and the buy is a free book bingo square with the chargers

47:29uh the buy comes not this week not next week but the week after so i'd have to lose two more i don't know i mean the buy was part of the handicap as we described here on the show so things you got to consider i still a little the the Vikings just can you believe if the Vikings end up being the last undefeated with that offense wild good god tall numbers game hey good good show time cut that for a promo hunter um and then these do not look good these are the baseball ones i got the Yankees down 0 to i got the podries down 0 to from preflop and they both look terrible there you go it's all they got on those you sir all right i'm gonna move real quick dodgers to win game one in the series at minus 120 that's still alive let's go dodgers uh NFL week five cowboys nine and a half not a good number now jaguars three minus one twenty four that's a great number Texan six that's a good number Ravens Falcons 147 that's a good number and then i just tease the cowboys and the Texans this morning cowboys down to two Texans down to one joshians on the Dodgers today he's on Chris sale under 17 and a half outs brewers podries first five over four in guardian series

48:29pressers the white socks down out to he took it at plus five seventy five Drew's got a bunch of uh football bets but let's close it with Jake's hockey bets he's on minnesota tonight uh Jacob domus over saves for the canadian's Logan stancoven over two and a half shots on goal for the hurricanes against him jibby stugglerude over two and a half shots on goal and bobby mcman over two and a half shots on goal as well there are Drew seven pack goodbye there's a fire inside you you can't ignore stand still not a chance you're a lifelong learner who's come this far now we're here to help you keep going further capella university what can't you do visit capella dot edu to learn more