Will Burnham call a snap election?

0:00Andy Burnham's Riding High is calling a snap election his next move. Hello and welcome to Political Fix from the Financial Times with me Lucy Fisher. Speculation has reached fever pitch in Westminster about the prospect of an early poll, well delve into what's really going on as the Labour faithful prepare for their annual conference starting this weekend. We'll highlight what to expect from Liverpool as fresh pressure for Britain to rejoin the EU erupts, this time from Tony Blair. Last will review Burnham's first proper foray into international summitry, after he survived his first tetatet with Trump without major incident. Here in the studio to discuss at all are George Parker, a political editor, just about recovered I think George from your 48 hour round trip to New York with Burnham. It was a grueling mission I have to say Lucy and we had I think we had 24 hours on the ground in New York. It was a real episode of diplomatic speed dating by the Prime Minister and we were lucky enough

1:03to be participants in watching it. Well comment to get into all that with you and what he told you on the plane and tell us well to our deputy political editor Jim Picard. You weren't on the plane but like me we managed to catch some of what Burnham was up to on the tele. We were there in spirit. Shall we talk first about this issue that's been bubbling along for some weeks in Westminster, but really seems to have come to the fore ahead of Labour's conference which is the prospect of a snap general election. George, you're on the skipped gland of this happening but it is being discussed set the scene for us of why all the parties are talking about it. Definitely and we've had some lively debates you and I Lucy and the rest of the team about it. I think you're more he might do it. He might just do it into the spectrum. I'm more on that I'm picking up that that people in Downing Street and in the party are looking at the parameters in which to call an election. I still think I probably agree with you it's less likely rather than more likely. It's worth remembering you you picked up the fact that in the rush you soon that was going to go

2:05early so I always listen to you on this. I think he'd been narcissistic maniac to do this. Right okay Jim, Jim's out there right so and we've walked on a story quoting a cabinet that is saying it will be utterly insane to do this but the backdrop to it is that there is a lot of talk going on and as you would expect there are people in the Burnham Circles you picked up Lucy that are looking at what would the polls need to do to make this a gamble worth taking and it would be a huge political gamble. There are various things that bring this into focus. One is the fact that this is Andy Burnham's first Labour conference. Andy Burnham was in the Labour Cabinet in 2007 when Gordon Brown has just become prime minister. There's all that speculation about whether you have an early poll and he marched everyone to the top of the hill march and down again and then the Tories soon enough were handing out bottles of Newcastle brown with bottler brown labels on them which I still have in my house somewhere I think. Andy Burnham was seared by that experience and could see how damaging it was. So you know he will want to stop speculation running out of control and should be said he said that he's not planning to have an early election. Then you've got the Holbulinson-Pancras by election coming up just after the Labour

3:05Conference of October the 8th where the polls seem to suggest that Labour will beat the green party. So that will again ignite speculation that maybe now is the time to go for it. So the downside as Jim just alluded to is the fact that all the polls suggest if he went early he would lose his majority. You know Labour have a massive majority of almost 170 at the moment even on the most benign polling and the best case scenario where the campaign goes well the polls suggest he would lose his majority. There'd be a hung parliament he could be depending on the support of the Liberal Democrats to get his business through maybe the Lib Dems and plight comery and the Greens and who knows even the SMP. So for all those reasons I still think it's unlikely. Labour wins a landslide majority once in a generation they've got a landslide majority at the moment they can govern for a nearly another three years. My instinct is that he'll keep going for a bit longer. Right Jim can I make the case for why they could be looking to go for it before you or do it all over it. So we know that reform potentially has this enormous

4:08war chest of 72 million pounds so there would be a reason potentially for going early. This autumn this spring before they can really start to spend that to come up with a very sophisticated campaign. The conservatives are still in disarray they haven't picked lots of their candidate. Yes, chemis starting to get on the front foot but it would be a good time potentially to catch them on a way as an impact you don't hear anyone in Tory circles leaning into the idea of pushing Burnham to call an election now trying to suggest that he has an illegitimate mandate to be in Downing Street which they could have potentially tried to campaign on if they wanted a poll right away. George you already pointed out the Gordon Brown backdrop to this which will be very much forefront in the mind of James Pennell former cabinet minister in the the Blair Brown government who of course is now Burnham's chief of staff. And then there's the problem that one labour figure put to me of the manifesto. They said that the 2024 manifesto which binds Burnham particularly on tax just isn't fit for

5:11purpose. If you stick to it you just can't fulfill the promises that you've made to the country. I know it doesn't sound a very appetizing prospect to call an election to sell more tax rises to voters but to put it mildly. But you can think that in a sense to really affect the kind of change that many people think is needed in labour circles to halt the prospect of the public rolling the dice on radical insurgents like reform might need you know a more ambitious program than Burnham will be able to manage with the current manifesto. And of course Labour you know it's like you do have such a large majority that they can't afford to squander a few seats. Oh yes. I mean the sunny thing in it. George it. They have to be considering it. That's the case very very eloquently. Oh of course they're considering it and I would be maddened complacent to think that they're not you know running the slide rule over the pros and cons. I just happen to think that the cons vastly outweigh pros and if you think about it and kind of if you put yourself into the suit

6:14sorry if you put yourself into the t-shirts and suit of Andy Burnham and you think to yourself you know what are the pros and cons. The con is so enormous which is that your party's been in the wilderness for 14 years and then your predecessor came along one this ginormous majority and not seen since the days of Tony Blair that you know remember that's basically nearly 30 years ago and then you've stepped in this cockshaw northerner and you've come along and you've said I think I can do pretty well myself and then your majority goes from 170 down to whether it's 50 whether it's five or minus five or minus 50 or minus 150 you will look pretty stupid and you will look to the Labour Party to the Labour MPs to the membership like the guy that's squandered in retrospect what was an incredible inheritance if he wanted to just get on and deliver a cent left agenda for the Labour Party and I'm told by ministers who are dismissing the whole idea of an

7:15early election that the message they're getting from Downing Street Lawn Clear is we should be delivering we should be focusing on policy delivery you know we've only got three more years to go a lot of this stuff takes a lot of time we need to crack on with that. I think in terms of the historic analogies the Gordon Brown one everyone in the Westminster bubble thinks or Gordon Brown such loser for not going to the polls in 2008 he might have lost we have no idea what's over what would have probably happened as he would have certainly come back with a diminished majority and his reputation also reduced yes he would have bought a bit more time maybe but we don't know and then I think in terms of the more recent examples to reason may is the one where of course she had a majority like somewhere in the double digits and it was absolutely humiliated by going out these to the polls and losing that Tory majority the second one that we should mention is of course that Boris Johnson went early and the opposite happened which is the Tory party went from being really unpopular under Theresa May to scoring their own landslide or at least their own decent majority against Jeremy Cohen but I think the thing to remember about both of those recent

8:20Tory examples is that there was a major reason for doing it in terms of policy which is they couldn't get through Brexit they had to unstick parliament they were going round and round in circles and by basically blowing the doors off and having a general election was the only way they could see to get through to get through to get through to get through to get through to get through to get through remember by the way that Theresa May's Conservative Party at the time she called that early election in 2017 was polling at 50% not at 23% so that's one difference but the other thing I would just pick up is this Jim's point about how do you explain to the voters why you're doing this you've just been elected for five year term it's been a change of prime minister but you know whatever just get on why are you doing it and you mentioned you alluded to this you're doing it possibly because you need a new mandate to do some really difficult stuff and this is a bit where I just think political logic falls down you have people saying this within the once a run an election based on the idea that we need to put up your taxes to pay for defence or social care the moment the Labour party has a campaign where there's a shred of difference between them and the Tories on tax they will be

9:20absolutely sitting ducks for the whole campaign the whole campaign will be Tory campaign will we Labour will put up your taxes will cut welfare and cut your taxes I should completely agree with that George but in fact to my mind that's potentially another reason to go early now bear with me I notice that the Tories are in disarray at the moment in terms of their electoral campaign but they are beginning to climb again in the polls and I do think it has become so baked into Labour's and electoral strategy that it's main opponent at the next election will be reform and in particular Nigel Farage is the key bogeyman that it needs to overcome the prospect of allowing two or three more years for the Conservatives to come back and for this to be as you point out a sort of classic tax and spend election where Labour has sort of painted as just wanting to raise taxes while the Tories can sort of present themselves as wanting to kind of cut welfare and reform benefits I think could be more damaging for Labour and there's maybe some in the sort of strategy

10:22part of the engine who are thinking we need to go early while Farage is still at the fore while reform is still the main opponent because that will be the best chance for us yet to kind of hold on in power and return the most number of seats I totally accept the logic of that the one thing I wanted to pick up on though is this idea that if Bernan wants to raise taxes then he needs a manifesto a new manifesto to do that I think firstly he would love to go the next few years without raising tax and we had the story in the FT this week that John Healey the Chancellor is looking at reducing the current 23 billion of fiscal hedgering to maybe 15 billion or so in order to avoid having to put up tax and of course who knows what will happen in terms of the economy and public finances in the next three years but I think the second really important point is that you know Labour went into the 2024 general election basically promising not to put up the main taxes and they might have kind of kept the precise details of that pledge but they did put up

11:24employer next by about 25 billion even if they didn't put up employee next and they did national insurance contributions and they did also put up income tax we all forget it in the sort of the sort of high practice of month that proceeded the budget last year but they did end up putting up income tax on income from shares and income from property and that kind of thing so and the house of annoyance from a lot of FT readers from the business world from people who are landlords was less oh my goodness the Labour manifesto is this thing I keep by my bed and you've broken these sacred tablets that came down from on high from the from Westminster and they're more just annoyed that you put up taxes can I just make one more FTish points against subbing in early election that's the big claim of John Healey the Chancellor and the Prime Minister Andy Burnham is they want to introduce stability give people stability in the country I'm for business to invest if you have a general election in the current climate in the bond markets where you raise the

12:26prospect you're going to have a new government who knows with Nigel Farage in some way potentially having his hands on the levers of power or the Greens with Labour or the Greens with the bond markets already in state of nervousness how irresponsible will that look the your running an election campaign while government borrowing costs are spiking I think it would look extremely difficult to defend from a public opinion point of view and I'm not sure the FT would be wholly supportive for the idea yeah and to be clear as well I suggested the Greens could be in government with Labour when you look at some of these ginormous mega MRP polls of 20,000 people they're pointing to an incredibly scrappy parliament with no one anyone there in majority so it's either the Tories getting into bed with Farage on the right or it is Labour desperately scrappling to get assistance from the Lib Dems who the bond markets won't be that worried about but also maybe the Green Party who the bond market certainly would be worried about and just to inject because someone's into the debate sorry sorry just one other thing a poll came out this week a UGov MRP poll on these ginormous polls that Jim's just referring to which just if there was an election tomorrow that Labour would end up with 240 seats so that's about 80

13:31short of what they need for a parliamentary majority Lib Dems have 70 so on that poll not only would Andy Burnham throw away a landslide majority he would be Miles Miles shorter where he needs to be to form a government I mean that's obviously the case and I don't think Burnham would call an election an early election without being much higher in the polls after potentially some rabbits out of the hat in his conference speech after a big win in Holburn and some pancreas if that were to occur the conditions would obviously have to be right but I just think to my mind what's underpriced is the psychology of a politician who gets to the top of that incredibly vicious my metaphor has gone on the out of the vicious totem pole the inhospitable mountain of power the top of the greasy totem pole the point of his time is climbing up I think I might mention before to give a you know spot in a special mountain I've bumped into Theresa May the other day and she was advising Andy Burnham not to go on any walking holidays

14:33in Snowdonia of course as well she made the fateful decision to the thing about the Theresa May election is that she thought that she could control what the general election was about and she thought if she stood in France with podium and said this is an election about giving me existing prime minister a much bigger majority to push tree Brexit and you the grateful public will deliver and in the end the election became about something totally different which was that Jeremy Corbyn did manage to catch the imagination of an awful lot of the general public on the left and therefore Theresa May basically just lost control of the narrative she went off on one about social care surprised everybody but you cannot launch an election knowing what that will be about I look I think there's a lot in what both of you say I just think that the point I was trying to make before getting tied up in my own appalling metaphor was that the psychology of someone who reaches the post prime minister is someone who's a risk taker someone who also has that sort of

15:33first for power they you know he will not rest easy until he has his own mandate until he has his own election win under his belt you know being in Downing Street alone is not enough he won't be happy until he has won his own election I just think if you're not someone who sort of follows politics that closely or spends a lot of time with politicians you can lose sight of that and the other thing I was struck by and got me thinking this week was someone who was talking about the differences of working closely with both Starmer and Burnham in Downing Street and this person was saying it's there's a very sharp distinction between how strong Burnham's instincts are on everything with Starmer it was always you know come up with a two sided paper we'll talk it through the pros and cons and then I'll come to an answer with Burnham he always has an instinct on what he thinks which in some ways can be you know useful it's more values driven his premiership sometimes it can be annoying this person's communicated because he potentially thinks he knows about you know has an idea about something before he's really sort of read into

16:33some of the the notier issues but I just wonder on this question as well whether he has a natural instinct and if he does whether he might be I suppose he can be quite impose can he intensive yeah exactly he says things before he's thought in through so that was exactly what Kenny Baidnot said this this week actually she said she thought there would be an election in December great but because she thinks that as you said Lucy that and she said Andy Burnham is a gambler and there are a lot of reform folks who think there's an election potentially coming in November and a winter election is I think better for Labour because Conservative Pussy and Reform would have older voters who are less likely to come out in December of that is that right I think it's the other way around isn't it I think it's conservative voters have cars yeah I think maybe that's slightly outdated I mean I've also spoken to Labour MPs who say this is completely ridiculous but they're worried that the party is talking itself into the predicament and one who said that they've instructed their association to be ready for a spring election I said spring why not before this oh well there's not any much you can meaningfully do before spring so I'll

17:37get the machine into it just one final point is I think this idea that reform having 72 million means that they're going to kind of crush everything and everyone and all their rivals underfoot in the coming years I I'm quite skeptical of that and I actually agree with the Kenny Baidnot line on this which is along the lines of either the products good or the products bad and throwing money at it won't change public perceptions of whether you think Nigel Frage is going to be a good prime minister or a bad one well this is obviously going to be a topic that I suspect dominates the corridors and sweaty parties at Labour Party conference in Liverpool I think Jim you're going for the the full fat what five day hog at least Lucy I'm not sure it's so much the larger that's just hangover for a few days afterwards um what are we expecting from the conference Burnham wants to subject to Hopi changey message any other sort of key announcements Rachel Reese

18:37for example always used to love having lots of things to to announce in her speech maybe a little bit lower key yeah I think I think maybe John Healey or the people around him will realize that you know they've been very controlled at not letting the press write much about what's going to be in the budget at the end of October and the dangerous if they do release everything on the same day you get far less impact than previous chances of cunningly sort of into spaced announcements through various newspapers and broadcasts over a period of weeks so that they can get more traction for their various announcements so you you've got to imagine the Healey speech on Monday will have some sort of giveaway type announcement I think on the Burnham front a lot of people sort of feel like they know a bit about him they know he plays guitar but not as well as Johnny Mar or you they know that he's sort of friendly blokey northern guy but I think you know people think of that big leader's speech as it goes on for nearly an hour and in it the ideas that you set out a bit more about your background what motivates you what your priorities are what you

19:42really believe in and apparently he's been spending quite a few hours on this speech you apparently he does most of it himself it doesn't delegate to speech writers and I mean as someone who's Burnham's been in my peripheral vision for years as a political journalist but I'm quite interested in just hearing a bit more from him about who he is and what he genuinely wants to do. George could can I ask do you think there is a risk for Burnham that he gets a bit carried away talking to the party faithful who will give him you know we can expect a rapturous reception he's off the soft left which is more in line of the sort of party activists lots of the trade unionists who will be there in Liverpool could he end up going a bit far warming to his theme of ending 40 years of neoliberalism and sort of bashing capitalism and wealth creators a bit too much because of course you know businesses and the markets will also be watching. That is always the danger I think from a market and business perspective that he does you know does play to the audience I don't think he probably a bit too canny to do that because after all he

20:45has just been elected or he's become leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister so he doesn't need to do that what he needs to do in his speech I agree with Jim is to introduce himself to the country to look beyond the conference hall and also we've speaking to Pat McFadden the Working Pensions Secretary today and he said the message about that the Prime Minister would try to project his confidence hopes stability and no doubt some stuff about cost of living as well help being shown that but you know he's also got to capture the seriousness of the time as well because the budget on the 20th of October will be tough as he said George you this week have spent a lot of time with Burnham you were in the jet with him off to New York for his first I think it's for his first major international trip yes you went to Ukraine but this was the one we were all watching for his first sit down with Donald Trump his speech at the UN tell us more about how he got on yes I mean it was you and Jim know these trips are really sort of interesting introduction to the job really and this sort of international exposure you get and they press

21:49scrutiny you get as well because you're on that plane with dozens of journalists and one of the first things you have to do is this huddle on the plane a famous huddle where you're you sit down and you you take questions on the record questions from on a range of different subjects that's quite a big thing but of course the big challenge for him was the UN meeting with Donald Trump and some of the other meetings and one of the things that one a member of Andy Berndt team said was that meeting Donald Trump and the whole UN General Assembly experience is like white water rafting just being knocked around and trying to navigate the rapids and I think you know you could tell from Andy Burnham's face when he was sitting next to Donald Trump there was a bit of tension in his face you could see hostage vibes from the light from the telly yeah he looks he looked he looked quite nervous but I have to say that afterwards there was a huge sense of relief from Burnham and from his team Burnham himself said he thought he'd formed a bit of a connection with Donald Trump obviously what Kirstama thought has happened on his first encounter with him as well. I know as the the other guy has Donald Trump called Kirstama.

22:49There was some Manchester Bans as well wasn't there that he sort of he sort of chided the president first referring to Manchester as some town they seemed to form a bit of a connection and on the way back we had a chance to chat with with Andy Burnham on the plane back and I think he thought generally things had gone pretty well actually because it's not easy or they're in the UN building going from one stuffy meeting room to the next not just meeting the president of the United States but a quite a difficult meeting with Ursula von der Leyen from the European Commission and then a whole load of other international leaders who you've never met before getting a briefing shoved into your hand right next one you meeting as the Prime Minister of Spain the only thing but um you know he seemed to be quite relaxed I have to say. And just tell us a bit about what Burnham was like on the plane because this will have been his first huddle as we call it with the Prime Minister which is when all the press pack crowds round in a tight-knit scrum so I'm interested so Starmer discovered he didn't like doing it sitting down where there's journalists standing all around and he preferred to stand up on the plane.

23:50How did Burnham handle it? I mean the short answer is he handled it quite well I think he took questions for about 35 or 40 minutes it's a long time because you are pending there is no escape having sort of crouching against the whole thing and people leaning out of the toilet and you probably just get their phone there the Prime Minister. You see pictures of this thing it's an extraordinary spectacle I think the last one trip I went on some of the reports are actually standing in the toilet trying to get close enough to the Prime Minister and everyone handles it in their own different ways actually Theresa May I recall once did it standing behind it like a bar on the plane and it was like it was a very strange thing actually not handled it okay as well Gordon Brown really hated doing it I seem to recall. Gordon Brown got angry with new ones in a heartle because I said to me you keep talking about the subprime mortgages as if this is just a US phenomenon but you know the British banks have been doing some quite crazy lending themselves and the then Labour Prime Minister sort of turned to me he said why are you attacking me this is meant to be a friendly gathering of journalists. Yes I had a similar experience with Rissie

24:52Suna when he accused me of asking crap questions and talking down the country. Can you report your crap crap questions? Yes I virtually asked if it's quite topical given the focus of on AI at this particular meeting. Rissie Suna had gone to Washington to say that Britain could help to set the global standards for AI regulation. I like to say why do you think a middle-ranking country like Britain you know will set the rules for China and the United States or the European Union and this technology and he very snapped and said I was talking down the country and didn't I know that people read what I rose. On the subject of AI I think it is worth mentioning some misalignment. Between what Burnham projected he wanted to talk about at the UN and what he told you in the Huddled George he wants to be a key theme of the G20 presidency the UK's hosting the summit next year and then he didn't bring it up with Donald Trump did he? Yeah that's a good reason why he didn't which is that about two hours or an hour and half earlier Donald Trump had given a speech at the UN where he basically said that he wasn't going to accept any global schemes or structures to regulate AI thought the whole thing was a hoax it was designed to stop

25:56America taking advantage of it's a lead in this technology so he made it absolutely clear that he was totally opposed to the very thing that Andy Burnham was going to put the center of his own speech to the UN a few hours later and as you say I mean AI was a big theme for Andy Burnham at this UN meeting and he has said that he will make the UK's G20 presidency all about AI and trying to find some sort of global structures which Donald Trump's already made clear in advance he's not going to accept. Well we'll have to come back to that because very notable that the UK didn't sign up to the Finland-led proposal for international cooperation on artificial intelligence should we just turn briefly to talk about another area of cooperation with our allies Labour and the EU because Tony Blair Jim has had an interesting intervention this week urging Burnham to restart negotiations on the UK rejoining the EU within a decade and saying basically he should bin Labour's red lines on further integration with Brussels. Yeah I think the surprise factor on this one is a bit minimal Tony Blair talking about close relations with the EU

27:02is a bit like Jeremy Corbyn wanting close relations with Palestinians it's kind of what you expect from that particular former Labour leader but you know it is a bit of a live rail of British politics but particularly Labour politics because of the coalition of voters that Labour's attracted over the years of which you know they have shifted more towards the kind of urban metropoth and elite slash public sector slash remainer voters and although they've lost a lot of their working class voters who primarily voted for Brexit there are still a phalanx of those supporters of the Labour party and therefore they've sort of had this uneasy truth for years whereby they want close relations with the EU but they don't want to reenter all those torturous arguments about basically rejoining the single market customs union rejoining the EU in full but I think when Blair says this it does remind people that there is a dilemma coming up which is there's a Labour manifesto to be written I would say in three years time some would say in the next couple of weeks depending on

28:03where you stand on the election debate and at some point Andy Burnham if he's still Prime Minister is going to have to make a decision about you know warners in that manifesto to retry and have eight customs union with the EU at a bare minimum or could the Labour party go further? And does it make sense George for at some point Burnham to sort of publicly announce that he wants to review the red lines on the UK's relationship with the EU? Yes it probably does I mean it would be go down extremely well with his party with the trade unions and it's the kind of thing that would go down well with a at the Labour party conference where he to say well we will review this at the time of the next election the people around him though are sort of saying first of all that isn't something that is as a top of the Prime Minister's minds and that there is a problem I think which is at the moment all the focus in white was trying to negotiate this deal with the European Union the reset deal that here's Starmer started in May 2025 some of it as we know a scheduled for May then scheduled for July then reschedule for November

29:05the beginning of November now late in November and there's not a date yet is there still no date and the talks have got very difficult and these are about things you think would be fairly straightforward and negotiate things like linking our carbon emissions markets food and drink trade on a youth experience scheme I think there's a real fear that the people close to these negotiations if Andy Burnham starts talking about rejoining our customs union or single market people in Brussels are what the hell are you talking about we're trying to focus on this first ball without getting into sort of slightly wider rarified debates as we always have to say on this podcast there are two sides to every debate and you know when you read Tony Blair the Tony Blair Institute reports on rejoining the EU it's a reminder of the fact that sometimes we look at these things through sort of one side of the telescope the report says we should have a long-term commitment to rejoin the EU but only if it's basically turns into a British friendly model with fast decision making a Europe nation states rather than a federal Europe there are all the things that he

30:05tried to get the EU to turn into when we were members now suggesting that we can somehow hope or persuade the EU to move in a different direction so it's always with the EU as I've found from five years of covering the EU in Brussels so my costs a bit more complicated yes I thought there was a lot of wishful thinking in the TBI report including that suggestion that the UK announcing an intention to join over a decade could be used as leverage by you know others in inside the block who want it to reform it wouldn't be the first time we've ever estimated our leverage in no and Brussels and again let's just inject some numbers into it you gav polling for the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum back in June found only six percent of voters thought that leaving the EU had been good for Britain compared to 57 who thought it had been bad but asked if they would vote to rejoin the EU yes 55 percent said yes but 34 percent still said no and 11 percent were under side so there's a sense that even though some significant proportion people

31:09think it's been bad for the country they don't want to reprise that debate that was just so divisive and leave families and communities apart and how many of those 55 percent would know that we'd probably have to take the euro for example in order to reach or accept free movement probably in its entirety but Jim there is another problem coming down the line from the EU which is it's made in Europe initiative which is getting increasingly worrisome for ministers in Whitehall yeah and this is the attempt to basically defend European manufacturing and industry particularly against Chinese competition very much in the EU program and Andy Burnham had a meeting during his trip to New York with Ursula von der Lenn the European Commission president basically begging for the UK to be allowed to participate now the reason that that isn't completely fanciful is that there has been a suggestion that perhaps Canada could have some sort of associate membership and maybe something is possible there but you know it's a real signal that this is a pressing concern for British industry and you know even separate from that you'll remember the whole debate about rules of

32:13origin which was a major issue during the whole Brexit debate which is that you know if your product doesn't have a certain proportion of its components coming from the EU within the single market you basically have to pay tariffs now we've managed to delay those tariffs for several years but as I understand it they're going to kick in 2027 so there's a whole separate problem coming down the tracks involving our industry and Brussels it's causing increasing concern in Whitehall that this policy intended to defend the industrial base of the European Union could end up helping to de-industrialize the UK and of course we know Andy Burnham's commitment is to re-industrialize the United Kingdom so it's causing a huge amount of concern what's Keir Starmer was hoping to do as we reported in the FT quite recently was to try to do a trade-off where European Union would agree to allow Britain to be a participant in this made in Europe scheme in exchange for the UK opening up its university sexer to EU students on a home fees

33:13basis which would cost some money to the British taxpayer but would be outweighed I think by the benefits to be brought gained from the UK being part of this EU initiative again that's controversial and so far the EU side is not prepared to do a deal on this and I think there is a growing concern that we're talking past each other and that's one of the many reasons why the date for this summit still hasn't been set. The new episode of the next five is all about CFOs in an AI world. Patrick Villanova a black line joins me. CFOs are inherently riskabers we have to be very prudent when we implement AI. As does Olya Brassi at Highgate. Bivoreal is now human owner means no go live. And Gina Gutsite at FTI consulting. There's no excuse you're the CFL you're signing the name to the financial statements. Listen to the next five wherever you get your podcasts enjoy.

34:15We've just got time left for Stockpix George who are you buying or selling this week? Well I think I'm going to be selling just to follow from that conversation. I'm going to be selling Hamish Falkiner who is the Minister for EU Relations. He took over this job from Nick Thomas Simmons who'd been in the sort minds for a couple of years and negotiating all this stuff. And I think Nick Thomas Simmons thought he could get this deal over the line when the summit was originally scheduled but the fact that it hasn't been the whole thing has been delayed now and new problems are coming up by the day. It makes it very difficult for Hamish Falkiner coming in and so I don't envy him over the next few weeks trying to land this. So for the time being not through any fall through his own but because of growing problems on the EU side I'm going to be selling Hamish Falkiner. Jim how about you? So I'm going to be buying Unite and GM be the big trade unions because we're getting close to those decisions on whether the government should give

35:16the guy head to a huge new oil field called Rose Bank in the North Sea and a big gas field called Jack Door. These have been caught up in a legal issue for the last few years and Miao Tafan-Bula, the Angie Secretary is going to have to make a decision on them and she gave an interview to the FT while at Unger, the big UN gathering in New York and she spoke to our colleague on the sidelines and she made the case that even under net zero of which the new Angie Secretary has a big supporter of, Britain still needs oil and gas for decades to come and I thought it was quite interesting that she mentioned oil as well as gas because the presumptions that Jack Door, the gas field would get to go ahead in the middle of October, Rose Bank looks a bit more 50-50 but it's just interesting to me that she would emphasise our need to keep using oil. Lucy, how about you? I'm buying Kanishka Narayan, the AI minister, now got a full seat at the table in Cabinet and clearly his brief is going to become increasingly important,

36:17Burnham took him with him to the UN this week and I think he's someone who's going to be a household name within the year. Is it the worst job in government and could he become a household name for all the wrong reasons? He certainly could but you know having net worked sufficiently among all the tech bros I'm sure if it all goes wrong for him there's a very lucrative role waiting for him at the end of it outside politics I would have thought. Well that's all we've got time for Jim George thanks for joining. Thanks for listening. And thank you for listening. I've put links to subjects discussed in this episode in the show notes. Do you check them out? There are articles we've made free for political fixed listeners. There's also a link there to Stevens award-winning in Cypolitics newsletter. You'll get 30 days free and don't forget to subscribe to the show and leave a review or a star rating. It really helps spread the word. Political fixed was presented by me Lucy Fisher and produced by Pursus Love. Manuel Saragosa is the executive producer, original music and sound engineering by Brin Turner.

37:19Our broadcast engineers are Andrew George Ardys and Petros Jumpsis. No Phillips is the global head of audio. We'll meet again here next week. The new episode of the next five podcasts is all about AI sovereignty. Stefan Israel at AWS joins me. Digital borders for not become digital worlds which are not interconnected. As does Catherine Tilerinzo at Aino Sherman. It looked like a race to ride the rulebook and not just a race to build the most powerful technology. And Ali Ustin at McKinsey. Sovereignty, tankers, data centers, engineering and AI talent in the country. Listen to the next five wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoy. Capital reasoning is being redefined in real time from macro disruptions and shifting investor expectations to AI-driven demand and the rise of private credit. When headlines can tilt markets overnight, how can companies stay on course? Strategic alternatives, the RBC

38:22Capital Markets podcast explores how corporates and investors are navigating new pathways to raise capital, create value and drive growth. When conditions change, alternatives matter. Listen to strategic alternatives available wherever you get your podcasts.