Will Anything in Iran Make Life Better in America – Epi-3816

0:00There's a better way to do this, let me show you a better way and we are live welcome folks to episode 3816 of this your mobile podcast. There's Monday, March the 16th, 2026 and that means we're halfway through March and when March is over we'll be one quarter through the new year. Tick tock, tick tock, the clock ticks for us all. When the clock has been ticking this year kind of crazy. There are things going on in the world today that even a prognosticator like myself, I didn't really see coming. Things like snatching the president of Venezuela out of his bed in the middle of the night and then turning around and bombing the shit out of a ran.

1:03I know some people don't believe this when I say it but these topics and other topics in the political geopolitical space are my least favorite shows to do. I didn't say I didn't like them. I didn't say I hated them because if I hated them I just wouldn't do them at all. But they're the least interesting to me because the conclusions always end up being that the things that we do or the things we should be doing. In the kind of the prepper, homesteader, permaculture, regen, egg, provide something for yourself and have a plan B space. Additionally, in the worlds of lifestyle design and building a better life and entrepreneurship and skill development and all this stuff, all this stuff does is it should pour gas on the fire of the importance of doing these things. But I do these shows like this for a variety of reasons. I don't like this you guys show up too because sometimes they're inspired by people that ask

2:04the right question and that was today. I'm going to explain that in just a minute. But the other reason is because people get so hung up on this shit that even when they talk about doing all the things we try to teach how to do, they're so hung up on this stuff that they don't do those things. So if we don't address that concern then we have a whole segment of the community that just kind of stays in the stall mode and that's just not a way to be in life. I started out with we're halfway through the third month of the year 2026 and some of y'all that it's hitting a little bit but you don't really get it yet but if you've been around for half a century that starts to blow your mind. When you can sit back and think of what was I doing in 1986 and maybe you were young but you were like in high school or just getting started in life after high school or maybe college or something like that and you can think like I know what I was doing. I remember Reagan was president. I remember what was going on in the world back then. This is

3:05before the Iron Curtain fell like yep that's how old we is. This is before the Iron Curtain fell before the wall came down in Germany when you know all those satellite republics like Ukraine and Lithuania and Estonia didn't have Olympic teams. It was just the Russians. It was really the U.S. So like you think back to that and you can remember that time and that doesn't seem like so long ago. When you realize you're sitting in the year 2026 you know I'm what you start doing math on your fingers or like that gift with Zach you know like the actor in it when he's like computing all the shit like or the crazy lady doing it like wait a minute how did that happen and so when you have that thought and then you realize like a quarter of the year's almost gone and it's your 2026 you start to get a little impetus to get things done and as you get older you realize there's only so many things you're going to get done with what's left of your time on this trip on spaceship earth and you want to leave behind kind of an impetus to people hey when you're

4:1025 don't skate through life and it's a real easy way to skate through life it's very similar to the people that spend their whole day doing scrolling short videos on their day off just look at all this stuff why don't you go do some of it right like I saw one before I get into what I'm doing today so I want to tell you this because it kind of hit me it was one of the saddest posts I've ever seen on social media and it wasn't AI written or anything this was a true person who I follow a long time and I know that said his girlfriend said why don't we go out and do more fun things so he gave her like eight options all of whom she rejected and it started out well what do you want to do and of course I don't that surprised me well why don't we go do this no why don't we go to the no and he finally ended with so you don't want to be surprising you don't want to do anything so what are we going to do and it ended with we spent the rest of the day scrolling short videos on opposite ends of the couch now this is not the way to live and you might look at that and go

5:16but do you know how many people are doing the same thing watching news feeds do you really think it's that much different you know they had it what's the latest on the Iran war yeah we blew a bunch of shit up again and they said it didn't happen and it did that's it there you got it's all of it so the question that got this show did gonna happen today okay was a very simple question very non-loathe question honestly a non-political question though a lot of political things kind of come in around it and it wasn't only stupid questions where I'm accused of supporting the war or being any American on the same day for the same opinion which is just kind of like shows you people are hearing what they want to hear this person said I would love your opinion and analysis balls and strikes will anything that happens in Iran anything we do have any positive impact on regular everyday Americans will it make our life better in any way now that may have been

6:19asked as a gotchy question I don't think it was though known the person to ask it I think it was a sincere question and it's a great question it's actually the question we should be asking now we had somebody I'm not picking on them pop up in the live chat before I even started to say this seems like a very simple a very short show it shouldn't take you very long to just say no this is exactly the problem that we're seeking to solve by answering this question in a well thought logical methodical way that doesn't take our own opinions and jammed them into the narrative of what is and what is likely to be I'm going to come at this today the what I guarantee you haven't heard anybody do this yet if you did I bet you they were a podcaster and they're someone like me right they're not someone with a studio behind them in perfect lighting and three engineers running a soundboard they're a regular everyday person like me a real podcaster I'm going to break

7:21this down into three categories and the most probable four things in each category that may or may not happen and I'm going to rank each one of them as to highly likely 50 50 not likely at all score one two or three with one meaning like this is really likely to happen to uh we could or maybe not three it's possible but probably not yeah I don't know if you've gotten that analysis for me but why should we be there how we're fighting for freedom we're freeing these people we're doing this we're a bunch of assholes and we're following whatever Israel tells us I don't care if any of that's true or not it doesn't actually have anything in it that answers the question does this make our life better I mean even if the people we hate are behind it it could still make our lives better even if the people that are behind it we love it still could make our lives worse and no matter who's behind it it could have no real impact on our lives other than how we feel morally ethically etc but from a mechanistic standpoint of do our does our net income go up or

8:25down it might not have a damn thing to do with anything and only when we come on that question that way can we come away with anything that looks like a factual analysis rather than one side calling the other side a bunch of morons the other side calling the other side a bunch of idiots and each of them arguing from a anchored stance of this is what I think should be because what do I always tell you about the way things should be or what should happen or what should have happened it doesn't mean swear root of fuck all does it does it that's great yeah that shouldn't happen yeah anybody did see I look at analysis the way a good judge should look at conducting a trial now do you think that means that if I make sure that the guy that's on trial for murder uh is everything is done within his rights as a defendant that I mean I'm pro murder do you think I don't want to see him swing or fried or gassed but if I'm to do my job as a judge

9:30in that area I actually have to be very strong on the side of the defendant toward his rights equally to the prosecution and their rights because if I don't do that then what can him often would happen and that is the guy gets convicted and the appeals court throws out the conviction and it has to go all the way through again or it's given up on and that's a real risk and I think that we run that same sort of risk different consequence in the way that we handle issues today it's why they've taken every major important issue issues that should require deep soul searching deep physical philosophical questioning deep tactical questioning and they they break that down to a catchphrase freedom is free yeah and then the other side's like he's just kissing Netanyahu's ass or whatever or he's love is stronger than hey yet okay whatever that doesn't have a damn

10:33thing to do with what has happened what is happening and what the results of that will be does it it doesn't matter what I think it doesn't matter what I feel from an analytical standpoint this is the thing that drives me crazy guys little rant here and then we'll get on with it I constantly get this and I feel that I really do the best job I can to be clear on the three types of things that I say in a show like this but this may not apply to like aquaponics or starting seeds or you know raising livestock or storing food but when it comes to this type of thing I try to be very clear and even positive times ago let me be clear this is what I'm doing but there's only three ways I come at this I express my opinion and what I do I will say this is my opinion and I'm actually very careful about giving my opinion too often in these things because I want you to come to your own conclusion based on the other two things uh two I'm acting as a pure analyst basically I'm saying

11:39based on everything I see here this is what I think is going on this is what I think is the motivation this is what I think is going to be the outcome now that's nothing to do with the fuck what I want if I look at a weather map but I see a big frickin long line of storms coming in the area and the area you tell me in right where that squall line is a huge bow in it and a dark sharp truth thing with a bunch of fucking hail cores I'm like hey skeezy you're about to get hit with a fucking tornado that does not mean I'm rooting for the tornado I'm reading the great radar and I'm using the information I have at the time to tell skeezy here right it that looks like his name yes skeezy right yet in your fucking shelter bro right no one it's got a brain an IQ over 55 blames the meteorologist for the weather that's what you do when you get upset over my analysis uh and then three when I'm simply reporting the facts this thing did or did not happen this is this is what happened and led up to this occurrence oh you're kissing the states ass oh no this is the things that happened

12:45you eat well all sought happened there's a video that happened and this is the results I didn't actually say whether it was good or bad I just said these things happened but because the things that happened didn't line up with whatever narrative you wish to believe I'm attacked and I'm gonna challenge people to not do that today because no matter where you think this is gonna end I guarantee you when we go through three different categories and the chances of each thing happening is gonna piss you off because some of them you don't believe I don't believe them either this is just a logical analysis and then a a rating of the possibility the ratings are all I would say relatively high the methodology I use this foremost likely things for each of the categories and then rating them one two or three and nothing rates of three here set one why because I put the four most likely things that were in the categories and those categories are negative positive and neutral do you see that's an analysis of all the things that could happen

13:50we can look at what are the positive things that could come out of it what are the negative things that could come out of what are the things that won't change our because remember the question is should we have invaded our act not the question are we winning are they losing not the question by the way we're winning they're losing from a military tactical standpoint that's an opinion but I mean you don't have to have a very you don't have to be well you have to not be a denial to not agree with that opinion but what does winning look like that's the important question but they're not even gonna just hang what could happen what are the likely that's what we're gonna analyze today before we do that let's go ahead and say I thank you to our sponsors of the day it reminds you to do business with a sponsor that a number one of a Bill Tongue USA that's Anton he's right out of South Africa started making Bill Tongue an earnest for his store anyway when they shut everything down with his new business he had just started when COVID hit and that became the mainstay of his business he now makes many kinds of Bill Tongue including the regular classic Bill Stongue and what's becoming my favorite Bill Tongue sticks STX recommend you check those out

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15:57subscription for my sponsorship was canceled and I'm like not man that's paypal not me and got a link to sign me he signed right back up and I said you know you might at this point be the longest podcast sponsor of any podcast ever like continuous running and he said if it ain't broke don't fix it that tells you that the people that run KnifeKits.com value this audience a great deal they have been sponsors with us since 2011 2011 is 2026 that's pretty bad ass you know we're well past a decade I don't really know if anybody sponsored anything that long with real sponsorship for like actual money and things like that so check out KnifeKits.com where you can learn to build a knife no matter who you are starting from kit form or if you're you know working on being a master blade Smith anything in between you have options there so check them out again KnifeKits.com

17:00company you know the name of that company they follow one of my rules of marketing do what you say and say what you do and they do that all right so hey let's start digging into this again I want to again come at this with again I'm not picking on the guy that made that comment about it shouldn't take very long to say no but there is some done in Kruger going on that right the older you get the more you realize that no complex situation can be immediately analyzed and spit out a result even if you're right you don't know why you're right you don't know the probability of being right because none of this is absolutely when you have dynamic systems interacting globally there is no simple answer to any fucking question right and as your competence grows your confidence in your calls goes down that it levels out and begins to rise again as you develop more and more competence and in here we we are analyzing things that most of us are not you know we're not we have not

18:02studied to analyze these things most of us do not have degrees in geopolitical outcomes or something like that right we don't sit around all day studying the politics of the Middle East and its interactions with the global economy that's not what we do but yeah we can actually probably do a much better analysis in most of these situations if we're asking the right question and we're giving it to right due diligence then most of those experts because they have their heads so far if they're asked they can't see they're overconfident they're at the top of that curve when they claim to be experts and since no one challenges them and there's no consequence for being wrong they live at the top of that curve my goal today is to not only analyze this in a serious and genuine way is devoid of my opinion as possible though with some of my instinct coming in on the probability of the predictions but to do so in such a way that allows you when you have another complex issue and Jack's not doing a show on it that week because Jack don't want to you can do it yourself instead of

19:08just picking a tribe to throw in on their catchphrase for the thing this is a this is a deep thing I mean on one side of this you've got one sovereign country attacking another sovereign country because we don't like what they're doing that's just inherently wrong on on the surface anyway on the other side you have one country who has been at global sponsored sponsored terror and those of you that say they have not you probably are all the way deep then and I'm no fan of Israel but you're probably deep into the like Candace Owen level shit right um you do have a country that's caused that you have a country that does things like what just happened with their their uh female soccer players in Australia like like seven of them said they were going to stay in Australia they were offered asylum five decided to go back because the message was basically you want us to torture until your family if not you better come back this is not a government you want uh government it'll do that is not a government you're looking to add to the list of nuclear powers now how close are they I don't know I don't trust our government at all in their assessment of it

20:12they've been five seconds from a nuclear weapon since 1996 okay I didn't even have any gray hair yet that's how long ago the fuck that was so I don't trust them either but this is also a terror it is a terrorist regime like when you throw all and that there's I can throw a hundred more things on top of it and some of you already mad because even though I said the thing you wanted to hear it first then I said the thing you didn't want to hear it second and you can't take both of them and put them together you have to stop that so when I look at something like this I want to know what are the possible outcomes because I also know that if I pick the phone up right now and say hey Trump hey man this is Jack Spirik remember me like all the way back in the early 2000s I was an advisor to one of your companies yeah man we're so cool right okay cool don cool I'm glad we're cool bro here's what I want you to do I want you to stop bombing this place okay man thank you like that's not gonna fucking happen nothing I say nothing you say today nothing you yell at me

21:13or agree with me on or anything like that's gonna change the outcome or the ongoing process so we have to evaluate it from what does it mean to us and to that question which is a great question will it make in any way the lives of Americans better I can answer that with three categories and only three neutral outcome nothing really changes in our lives pretty much the pirates of the Mississippi Mississippi said it song Fiji you know back when Saddam Hussein was still alive and we had his glorious victory in Iraq the the line in the song was Saddam Saddam Hussein still has a job but I don't tonight he'll sleep in a big warm bed but I won't and those lines are coming from the perspective of a homeless person on the street and so that war neither negatively or positively affected that person but we just spend the money on the war then we know we wouldn't have done that whatever thing it the other pet pod project you're thinking of we wouldn't have done that anyway war no war what happened doesn't matter right it's neutral then there's a

22:18positive outcome a positive outcome means in some way our life will be more comfortable or more prosperous in any way whatsoever is that possible it's always possible you don't know and then there's a negative outcome that's pretty obvious and that means that we'll go do all this and not only will it not get our objectives done not only will it not benefit us it will actually be detrimental to our way of life and see the person that started this out saying it's an easy answer no well you get you be kind of left that out you kind of left that out the part that it could be not good but it also could be bad and I will submit to you that almost anything like this war or not related trade deals geopolitical shit economic shifts technology shifts can be broken in these three categories and then before we even go through them I mean there's almost inevitably the case that the the things under each category one will not be 100% right there'll be some combination like

23:26you could have both positive and negative and neutral outcomes of this conflict you could have both positive and negative and nothing really neutral you could certainly have mostly neutral and a little bit of positive are mostly neutral and a little bit of negative and until you're willing to shut up and I mean shut up not yelling at me not yelling at you stream but I mean in your head until you're willing to silence your own bias for enough time to perform an analysis like analysis like this you can't get that result and the more you feel about the issue the harder it is if I am analyzing a football game and it's two teams I don't give a shit about let's I got to even think like I don't even feel good because they lost because I know somebody likes them and I like to rub it in so I can't say the bills because then I would be like well I don't want to give a shit about the bills but I get to I get to fuck with John Dalley right I it's it the Houston Texans are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I could not give a fuck less

24:30but you know what if I have a chart in front of me and I can look at the way those two teams have been playing who's in and who's out and things like that I can do a really good analysis on the way that game is likely to work out right if it's the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens don't ask my opinion my bias is going to creep into that hard because I love the Steelers and I fucking hate the Ravens because of what they represent in in that division so I can't do a clear head in and out I don't bet on that game I will never unless it's for fun money I don't mind losing just for fun but I don't think I can pick a winner there because I know I'm biased now if I really really really really really really really really needed to I probably could put myself into a Zen monk you know trance but ain't worth it over football but it is worth it over geopolitics and before we keep going I just want to remind everybody I do answer questions at the end in the way echa mouse this is for people in the live stream only ask that question right where with the word question and all caps first followed by the question in a succinct one to two sentence

25:33question that is the way to ask questions for comments on today and so far I have one of those so if you already did it and I missed it do it again now all right so let's look at neutral outcomes and I'm gonna tell you the truth is there is wisdom in the crowd and when this all started I put four different scenarios for the war itself not the outcomes but for the war itself in a poll on x now we're 500 people respond to it and the overwhelming majority people responding to that poll picked an option that was basically thought to you as victory and in essence we claim victory we sail away into the sunset and nothing really changes and if nothing changes there then not much would change here so the crowd wisdom is toward the neutral already just saying and these are a lot of people that hate war very anti-war like me very much we shouldn't have done this but when they when they pulled back and realized okay here's the potential outcomes instead of saying some stupid shit like now Iran's gonna conquer

26:38the world and sink all the US ships right and believing stupid AI videos and recycled actual videos as those are new they kind of led toward neutral so here's my neutral bullet points um the spending on the existing uh the the spending on this war that everybody's talking about right now all the people that did not give a fuck about wasting money for the last 20 years they're shrieking about it the spending disappears into the existing deficit system the government already run such a massive deficit that another war barely changes the overall fiscal trajectory so basically the the neutral outcome would be all the talk of all the spending and we're depleting how we're gonna have to buy this and there's so much money wasted and we could have solved world hunger nothing happens it means nothing it doesn't matter because the deficit is 39 trillion in climbing and it's we're gonna spend our way to oblivion anyway so it's not even a rounding error in the total um on my rating system with one being highly likely two being 50 50 and three being highly unlikely

27:41i give that a one i don't even think it matters if any of the other things happen i still think from an economic standpoint the pure spending on the war is irrelevant and anybody talking about it is just making a point and they're probably the same person who didn't care about spending when we were funding you know transgendered operas in Ireland or whatever so take that's my opinion but my analysis that's the most probable neutral outcome daily life for most Americans remains unchanged jobs wages housing costs in taxes are driven mostly by domestic policy rather than the conflict overseas that you're you're you're total cost of living doesn't really go up or down much because of this that it's barely a contributing factor one way or the other i give that a one highly probable yes short-term your gas goes up long-term your gas goes down gas going up and down up and down up and down up and down up and down and sometimes nobody was as much

28:43as firing a fucking slingshot at anybody and gas went up or gas went down and so i don't think you have a long-term economic consequence here the probability of that is high that's what i'm saying it's not the only outcome possible very high financial markets treated as another geopolitical shock there's going to be short-term volatility but no lasting structural effect for most people in other words your 401k won't go to zero because of this war imbuffet will not change or his his company virtue halfway will not change their overriding investment strategy because of this long-term nor will black rock or anybody else is in that game uh you're you're you're not going to make or break your retirement based on this like there's going to be no real impact on your investing and economic output if you look in five-year blocks quarter half a year sure

29:43probability one you see that i'm leaning toward neutral with my analysis this is what it seems like right now we'll see if that sticks and then the conflict fades into the background like many interventions costly but largely invisible to the average house all over time in other words how many times have we done this shit nobody really cared and when it ended everybody pretended they cared and then they didn't care and no one actually stopped or did anything different in their life it just kind of like that's what we do with the military over there and it's not here so i don't probability one and i'll cut to the chase and tell you that i think long-term i'll say long-term not this year overriding long-term impact of this conflict with Iran in the middle east neutral outcome has the highest rating it doesn't mean none of the other things will happen or that everything in it will happen i just think that's where we lean towards so now since jack is clearly anti-war since jack since some you can some of you refuse to hear this

30:48but the people that are pro-war have heard it every time and they take big exception with me to it but i have said since 2008 when i did episode like six like the first time we ever got in to talk about anything like this i am already opposed to the next war right then since i am opposed to the next war in this war then obviously i don't think there can be any positive outcomes well that would be stupid and wrong just because i don't want something doesn't mean that nothing good will come for it maybe some good maybe not maybe no good maybe a mix you don't know all we can do is say what are the most four likely things that our country would see as positive that may have a beneficial effect on the average every day person michael tom marry sue and you know billy right like the the guy that's gonna stop on the way home from fucking work today cold and miserable because the cold weather came back to the southeastern construction

31:49but it wasn't too cold not to work so he went out worked all day got wet windy muddy nasty he's pissed off but hey i picked up my budget wiser and i'm going home to drink up beers and wash news will his life be any better what are the ways that could happen number one a ran the Iranian regional influence is weakened which stabilizes major shipping routes and reduces threats to golf energy transport the fact that that threat exists actually has an impact on oil prices even when nothing's going on there is always within especially the speculative market and one of the you just i'm gonna explain some here in a second about speculative markets and how they're used in ways people don't understand but because that speculative market that speculative market is always hedging against Iran closing the straits the Yemen closing the other straight on the other side and different things like that with transportation and movement of fuel all over the world so if you take a player off of that board that reduces the potential for that choke point

32:58to be closed down that would reduce overall oil prices and low energy prices actually are good for Americans i didn't say that it was worth killing children for i just said that is the net that is the net output as to the question does it make billy the beer picker uppers life a little bit better if his gas costs him less at the gas station he fills up when he picks up his six back his life is a little bit better and if that goes across everything belly buys because everything is moved with energy then that's a good thing likelihood of it occurring or two notice it's not a one it's not a three it's not a three and the reason is in a three is that would be it's completely unlikely to happen it is like an outlier now understand if i say 50 50 and i'm saying three is not likely at all if the odds are you know if it's only like 40% or 35% that that happens it's still a two i didn't get myself like a five point skill to work with

33:58but i'll put it kind of right there in the middle um because so many of the things that everybody assumed that i ran could do they no longer can one of the things that really was believed and i believe this was believed believed by maybe everybody except people in our government that had intel of the contrary and i think even the Chinese and Russians who gave a lot of equipment to Iran thought this was true that their air defense systems would be such with these new detection radar systems from russian china that they would be able to tell when f 35s and f 22s and v 2s were in their space and they would be able to target them and and they weren't and you can be mad about that but it doesn't change the fact that it's true the joke going around now and it's a pretty based it's funny because it's true i guess if you can laugh at dark humor and that is you know that the the the chinese detector for the f 22 is working

35:01or the f 35s working because when it blows up there's an f 35 nearby and that's been pretty true so i ran no longer has a navy and they had a pretty sizeable navy they have a few fast boats and things like that going on and some freaking basically some uh you know modified speedboats and shit like that but they don't have a navy anymore they just don't and anything they have that kind of sort of looks like a navy is going to get blown up in the next week if it moves they really thought they could overwhelm with their drones their low cost drones until well it turned out that we have basically microwave technology that can scramble them and cause them to just fall out of the sky uh and and we have a lot of that so there is so much they can't do anymore and when this ends no matter how they talk they have a lot of fucking shit to fix before they can do anything

36:02so i think there's a reasonable probability that they're that their ability to be a threat to choking off energy goes down and that could stabilize fuel prices globally so i give it a two um global oil supply risk declines which could contribute to more long stable long-term energy prices the kind of the same thing except that the int that the the the the broader impact is on the global market and i'll give this a two as well and this is what i have to explain again like you people out there that are like will our energy oil is so expensive because we have to import it from the middle east we don't import shit in the grand scheme of things we don't import oil for shit we produce 91% of our own oil right now we import nine and we do so for efficiency of refinery operations to have certain quantities of specific rates of oil at all times we don't need it it just makes everything run a little bit smoother we export more than we import we are a net producer of energy and we have

37:08since trump's first term oh did that upset some of you it's a statement of fact i didn't even give him credit for it that's just that's just that's when it started and we have remained a net exporter of energy since the first trump administration and we all knew we were going to get there right we all knew we were going to get there in time a hundred percent new we're going to get there Mitt Romney was promising North American energy independence when he ran for president in the friggin twenty twenty-hots right so we knew we were going to get there but so we don't really credit to anybody but the point is you can't analyze that you can't analyze that as to well that's why the process of oil goes up however oils a global market if i'm a us energy producer and i know i can sell my oil for more if i sell it outside the United States i'm going to charge more inside the United States because somebody will pay for it so if you were to kind of level out that you would get lower and more stable oil

38:14prices throughout the globe good luck with it i give that a two if i want to cheat my own scoring system i give it a two point seven five almost a three which is highly unlikely to happen um a strong military outcome deters other adversaries from pushing against us interest in the near term that could be positive for the average billier Joe or Tommy or Susie or Tammy in that we would be less likely to have to do this shit because the threat of doing it would be such that we would be able to use soft power to do what we would strictly use hard power to do now i'm not saying that's good i'm saying the outcome of that is good for Joe six pack right again i'm not into my opinions at all here none like in in any way shape or form into my opinion this is an analysis only and we're getting to the negative for those that want to hear it you're off but what about we'll get there calm chill right and then

39:19and another positive output that would actually have benefits to the average person in this country it would be us leverage with regional partners increases which could strengthen alliances and trade security in other words the Abraham Accords are stronger there's less potential conflict between everybody else in the middle east and each other again i give us a two it's really more like a two point five it's edging toward the outside of probability probably more like 75 percent chance that does not happen but it does there is some credible intel already and results already that show that the other middle eastern nations tend to be more in line with america's goals and agendas in the middle east and if you have people in alignment with a similar agenda you have less potential conflict not more does it mean it was the right way to get there just means that's where we are and that's what seems to be happening you have nations that formerly would have been like

40:26all over the u.s. for this basically aligning with the u.s. right now now there's other factors that play so again that's more like a two point five okay negative outcomes this is what so many of you have been waiting for um war spending expands deficits further which contributes to long-term inflation and debt pressure i gave that a one but wait jack you said the neutral version and that was also a one both things can actually be true it is a contributing factor it's just not an overwhelming contributing factor so i think the amount of money we're spending to do this especially when you think about what we're doing and who we're attacking is extensively over the amount of money that we should spend on anything that involves military action in the world on a nation that had not yet attacked us this is not a defensive action that's my opinion that's how i feel it's not a defensive action i know the whole line of reasoning this war really started in 1979 all and man you could have made a pretty good case for the

41:27Reagan administration when they took over just freaking ending this shit back then but we did and when we stuck our nose in this over and over again we armed Saddam Hussein we we have backed up they're fading out there and that stays happening we we we back Saddam Hussein with CIA assets and weapons both under the radar and over the radar both in the 80s um you know of course then we decided to get rid of so not saying and we invaded Iraq and we had first Gulf War which i was in service war and then we had the second Gulf War in 20 years of nonsense there and basically nothing really changed we did the same stupid shit in Afghanistan so we shouldn't be spending money like that at all but and we anyway and we're going to piss the money away on something anyway but i still think this would have some impact on our long-term economic output and so what i think we could have actually both things be true and that is that

42:33in the short term the impact of this economically is relatively muted but as things keep piling onto it and interest compounds on interest it actually is a pretty big factor in the long-term economic demise of the dollar um number two regional instability disrupts oil markets which pushes fuel and transport costs higher that was the exact opposite of the neutral or the positive we end up with this kind of loosely held alliance this loosely held coalition of these other other countries um some that don't exact they're getting along better than they used to but they don't exactly like each other starting to erupt into inter national conflict between them like having your kids fight with each other and you're a stepfather is kind of how the situation would be for us you don't really have any real authority over anything but you have both kids on a step end and now they're fighting and you really i don't want to pick between you um you could

43:35have other uh guerrilla forces get involved right now the hoothies are trying to shut down the other straight um it doesn't take much to cause these problems in the narrow band right if you're familiar with the remember the movie 300 where 300 soldiers held off this huge army for ungodly amount of time because it was in a narrow pass and yeah there was some Hollywood adaptation and stuff but it's loosely based on history when you have something like a 12 mile straight and a slow-ass moving convoy of tankers going through and other cargo ships it doesn't take much to disable one and then cause complete disruption to all and i think this actually i have it ranked as a two because i'm ranking it from the standpoint of nationally sanctioned but if i move it down and say pissed off people right if i think of something more like what happened to the USS

44:38cold back in the day if you know what happened there and he takes one speedboat with a bomb in it and somebody willing to die because i have nothing else to live for i think there's a high probability that now how much impact it can have is why so happening i rate a one having the actual out the actual effect i'll move that to it too less likely right to have a long-term output or a long-term effect in impact the conflict expands or drags on creating another prolonged military conflict right in other words it becomes another afghanistan another vietnam another in spite of the fact that we're getting a pledge of no boots on the ground or whatever we eventually get into the broken window fallacy we have to do this now we're too invested sunk in cost fallacies more accurate there right we have some we've invested so much and we're so close to victory that we're going to stay so close to victory for 20 more years before we say fuck it and walk out that i gave a two it's more like a two point eight i think that's

45:41highly unlikely i think there's a lot of people arguing from that standpoint because since they don't want the war they think that's the best way to make your case no more forever wars no if we put boots on the ground then you know in all these mountains it's even bigger than afghanistan it's two times the size of texas there's no way we can win with boots on the grass but nobody's talking about that the reason i give it a possibility where we heard this before i mean everybody's so familiar with with bush junior right and the mission accomplished banner and they're making memes of trump in front of the mission accomplished banner because i the war is basically over i get that but the if you want a quintessential i don't like keep blinking in and out how how did when that happens are you guys seeing it i'm seeing myself blinking out a little swirly thing happened and i come right back all right you guys able to hear me when that happens let me know in the live chat but the quintessential example of this in

46:42what i would still call recent american history is Vietnam right Vietnam sorry we're just saying them weapons and ammunition and medical supplies right because they need that oh yeah we have observers on the ground but they're just observing uh well actually you see the observers on the ground they are actively training the south Vietnamese but that's it they're not involved well actually US special operations are working with our allies in the south and they're conducting operations with them but they're still being led by well actually we have special operations units operating on their own doing special operations stick well actually we have small military force units general like infantry force units well actually now that we have all that we need to send

47:43this to small amount of troops to help support and the sub of the mission and that is all good and that's all fine and don't worry about it but we need to have a little bit of that but we need a little bit more of that and then you know a decade later you know we're designing a wall with 58,000 names on it and that we will never look that way because the entire situation is different but it may feel exactly that way the pull the mission creep would follow a similar path and I think that's about a two that's a and that's a solid two for me that's a that's a flip a coin right um but it will not be with boots on the ground I I think you might see some of those limited special operations operations or something like that but and then everybody see see it's just like Jackson no it's not what I said I said that was the

48:45mission creep there I think that at least with the current administration the idea of like landing amphibious marines invading Iran you know going old school and parachuting people in any of that I think it's off the table I think they want nothing to do with it and that's not pro or con on them that's just I think that's where they are so that's my rating there is a two um and then my last one is global backlash the data accelerates and we shift toward a multi-polar world where we have kind of like the US and like either it's China Russia or China led and we have this more of this polarity western eastern hemisphere and our influence in the Middle East declines now I list that is a negative outcome for Joe and and and Harry and Tammy and Susie the

49:46average American person because it will be perceived that way I don't know this early is I think there's so many people shrieking America first America first I'm one of them but I actually mean it I don't know how we're America first when we're bombing people in a land that the average American couldn't find on a map if their life depended on it if you didn't label it form and half the people that couldn't find it without it being labeled couldn't find it if it was I I don't know how we you know we justify that I don't know how we we benefit from that but if we have less influence in that region then we're maybe more or less likely to do it but the initial shift and the loss of US hegemony in the Middle East would at least send major ripples through the United States economy to be a major shift necessary and change in the way our system runs after that and it would be painful while it happens so I think long term that could be actually a net positive for us and the rest of the world unless you know the people that I disagree with are

50:52right and that that allows like a Chinese empire to rise to such a level that it becomes actually a peer of the United States because I don't care what they're telling you right now the the Chinese military is not a military peer of the United States and and that may be like just being a little conspiratorial that may be a little bit of why we did this like hey look what you think you can do and you can't I wouldn't do that I really hope people will start understanding what I make a statement like that I'm just saying that might be part of what's motivating our our government oh you think you have equipment that can do all these things and detect our stealth technology and prevent us from evading airspace and blow and shove everything all right well we just snatched a dude out of his bed and blew up all your shit that you gave Venezuela and then we leveled the entire leadership of government in an hour and blew up all your shit you gave to Iran whether you're pro or anti this don't think that there are not people in fucking China and

51:55Russia right now going holy shit what like completely in effect like they're working no I didn't fucking work then you want to get more conspiratorial it might be like especially China China is much more of a chess player and the number one game in Russia is chess you want to you want to have your mind tested go play an average Russian in chess unless you're like some kind of master some shit um what if you what if you give those friendly pseudo allies like your second to your shit and you hold back your best shit and then you fool your adversary and you think and they've got you beat that's another possibility there um as the coupons here says China thinks in decades we can't get past tomorrow that's that is a very factual statement uh I think a lot of people don't realize a lot of China's motivation right now is due to what they call the century of humiliation or two centuries of humiliation something like that the they became they went from being a global empire to

53:01dog shit and they're still they're still psychologically it's spite of all their games psychologically still anchored to that and feel like they have not fully regained the respect of the world that they had before that happened and that's hiding they say hindsight's 2020 but hindsight is actually usually pretty damn blind you're you're never going to be what you were because the world isn't the same place anymore you're going to go back a hundred years 200 years the things that made a nation a global power are different today than they were then and they always will be so with all this being said what do I think is most likely out of all those things I think we are 90% as a country again this is not a morality judgment should have shouldn't have you know whatever I think the life of the average American change is very little because of this that's my highest probability here that you don't you don't you're you're you're you're you're tax bill doesn't go down your paycheck doesn't go up because of this your investment portfolio

54:05maybe bumps around a little bit overall not much happens I think there is a tremendous potential for regional conflict expansion but that to be more of a guerrilla force type thing uh I personally think what's left of the government of Iran collapses relatively quickly I think that the revolutionary guard is about the only thing left there and I know there's a lot of people that don't want to hear that I know there's a lot of people that don't want to hear that because they want to believe all the bullshit or ransank the Abraham Lincoln and shit which is currently just launching sorties every hour off that deck that's not what happened you know uh Tel Aviv is level no it's not uh most of the shit coming out of Iran that looks like they've done something good is clearly AI I think I I ran current government collapses onto itself but it's you know it is not it is not impossible for the replacement to be more problematic than the current

55:08and that seems to be something we we have had so much propaganda flung at us a lot of us you know my age and older we remember the hostages in Iran we still carry some anger from that um we remember them being freed remember that flight landing in Germany and we carry that baggage and so there's this concept this is the most evil regime that ever existed no it's not I said there were good guys I didn't say that they all get together play can asked every weekend with your mom I'm just saying we've had inherently far more evil regimes in the world and if we've had worse you can move to worse you could also move to better but I don't think that's going to happen so like this is this is the person that thinks it's been around a while as the Kuhn says I don't even know who you're responding to right he's building oh I see he's building a strawman are you against uh you're you're hearing what you want to hear you're the person that shows for that is for uh Daytona Beach USA I gave you all the things that could happen

56:12I gave you probabilities no definitive outcome but somehow I'm the propaganda that I'm actually teaching you how to get around you are yeah sorry man you know there are people who have so chosen to cling to what they want to be true that anything that sounds like what they don't want to be has to be a lie and those people are sad so I really ask you to broaden your horizons what do we personally do because you notice that I didn't say I mean there are predictions I've made over time and you would do well due to listen to the guy trying to explain it to you when I make that prediction I bat about 800 to 850 that's because I'm wrong sometimes and anybody tells you you're never wrong is full shit right but when I make a definitive like this will happen it's about 80 85 percent is going to happen and I've been doing this for almost 18 years and everything that I've done is recorded and you can look the date that I set it up and then

57:16you can look at what happened after it and I don't have that for you here and the reason is simple there is so much complexity here that when somebody like our friend here on one side of the issue or a friend earlier who was completely on the other side of the issue locks into this fricking myopic stance of I'm right so anything outside of my little fucking tunnel is wrong you know it's asinine to the extreme it truly is asinine to the extreme because how many players are involved how many components are involved here right how many people have positions of power that can make one decision that completely change the calculus of all these predictions what happens if somebody in the Saudi royal family takes over because the the current leader dies and it turns out he won't never what you thought and throws

58:21the US out of Saudi Arabia can't happen you don't know that unlikely sure can't what happens if the Qataris get pissed off at somebody and start fricking using the weapons we gave the blow shit out of them and they blame us for it even though they're also I mean there's too much complexity here so when you figure out what you're going to do in your life you have to look at volatility uncertainty so here's my best advice for you and what to do in regard to this and everything going on in the world today that is unpredictable number one focus on what you actually control like your income your skills your savings and your resilience and the form of the things in your in your savings and your investments like focus on you is Jordan Peterson would say make your own fricking room up clean your room and if you can't clean your home room what does he say because I never really listen to him but I've been told about this start with your drawer it's my understanding what's this whole talk with this was you tell the person to clean the room you clean your house and they can't so you say well go because it's just a rack you say go go clean

59:25your room and they they can't see it and they say okay this drawer take everything out of this drawer this is your sock drawer put your socks in your sock drawer and clean your sock drawer and that's the only thing you have to do and so the person does that wow I did a thing and it worked okay underwear drawer next right and then you like you clean all the clothes in the dress or where they belong fix the closet next make you bad back you move floor now you can because you can see it right do your laundry okay put it away okay I got a system in place don't have build up a laundry in more room is clean okay now do the living room now do the kitchen and if you have to when you get to the kitchen you start with the one the silverware drawer fix that right do that and for those that don't get it I've heard people talk shit about that talk even though I've not seen it personally like I get it it's an analogy dumbass is he doesn't actually Lord he's talking about all things your life you're poorly educated focus on educate yourself one thing that will make

1:00:31your life a little bit better and then springboard that's something else right you don't have any money focus on first thing you can do is control your spending tighten that then look for ways to increase your income tighten that then diverge yourself of death tighten that and pretty soon you have your financial life in a row that's what I'm telling you here that is the most important thing that you can do right now because this conflict I rank mostly as neutral of its effect on your life but cumulatively with all the other bullshit going all around the world including things they're going on right here like how many people are losing jobs to technology innovations and other disruptions you better focus on this because Roman always said about having a job we'll have a true crisis of employment when we have no problems that that's and then we don't care because we don't have any problems as long as problems there'll be opportunity to solve those problems for other people and you can profit from it

1:01:34so simple that is so focus on what you actually control your income skill savings resilience to emote avoid emotional decision making that could help a few of our friends and audience right now in the live chat yeah I mean it really could most of these people he's building a straw man where what straw man for what case he doesn't know he just heard a few things that were to the upside of what he's on the downside of or the downside of what he's I don't even know what he's subjected to because I don't really care yeah but I know that's emotion I am an emotional man I'm a passionate man and I'm very confident of the things that I know I know well so when I talk that way you'll hear passion in my voice you'll hear certainty in my voice you'll hear conviction in my voice but when you hear analysis what I strive for is dispassionate Vulcan logical

1:02:34processing and I don't know anything more logical and here's all the things that could happen here's the probability of each one individually even if you don't like the outcome that's pretty dispassionate it's a scoring system by the way I picked an editor for my new book did it the same way new some of the people didn't know some of the people like some of the people because I knew them that wanted to do it realized I can't make a decision that way send everybody a questionnaire created a scoring system read all the answers without thinking about who the person was gave everybody a one two or three kind of the same way backwards though three's better ones worse and then the person with the highest score got the job dispassionate it's like hiring somebody for a job I'm not gonna hire you because I like him and hire you because I think you do a good job I think you're best my best long term investment as an employee so you have to avoid that emotional decision making when people make financial decisions out of fear or political panic it

1:03:37rarely leads to good outcomes the people that sold everything in the middle of an economic crash got burned the hardest the people who dispassionally went wow everything's going super and it can't go on like this forever I'm going to start taking some money off the table and a little bit more and a little bit more and then the crash game and they went all in now we're going to buy at the bottom they did really well that isn't that is a logical choice just analyzing the pattern and realizing when you're at a all-time high after all-time high after all-time high and everybody says it's the time to keep buying it probably it because every time that's happened you know maybe not the next day or the next week or the next month but sometime in the relative short-term reality has come and reality has bitten so that's not a fear-based one the person who already took the loss and then sells that a loss and it doesn't sell the loss because like oh I know a new opportunity that will go back up and they're pretty sure of it like I fucked up but not about

1:04:40that just like I have to before it goes to zero yeah never works out whether it's stock metal Bitcoin doesn't matter it doesn't matter so the number one thing you can do for yourself with that in mind is to avoid emotion when you're making long-term decisions to affect long-term outcomes okay I got another one there by the way again this is how you ask a question I'm not answering it right now but I do have that start right now I only have like four things starting I think one's actually a comment by Jeff Lawton has someone do it farmers and I ran and I want to comment on it so that in three questions so if you have a question or a comment you want me to respond to do it now if you're sniping at me and you actually want me to return to your comment you better do that because I don't I can only do so much at once okay so our special friend are you get ahead and do that if you want to give me a gotcha I love those because they're always fun especially from people that make it so simple when it's actually complex um next thing would be diversify your exposure and and most of the thing I mean we'll make sure you have stocks bonds and income

1:05:43in this over here doesn't know in all things you're exposed in so many ways when you have a car loan you're exposed to the debt against the depreciating asset right when you have a home loan if you take care of the house anyway you're basically exposed but you're mitigating because you have a generally appreciating asset you have debt exposure to those are exposures so I'm saying diversify the way that you're exposed thank you for that I want to say Daniel Daniel here it's been listening since god I want to say oh 809 10 at the latest oh I would say you've been 95 percent correct that might be a little high um and you always come on and correct what is needed you don't have a problem saying you were wrong that's actually the thing I'm most proud of I'm not most proud of how often I'm right I'm I'm proud of the fact that when I'm wrong I don't bury and pretend it ever happened but if you're new to the show that might you might be something you haven't had a lot of exposure to but your income sources your investments don't rely on

1:06:46single fragile pillars as much as I am a Bitcoin bull I do not have all my money in Bitcoin and I think people to do are foolish I'm 99 percent confident in that space long term it doesn't mean I'm right there's still one always hedge and you hedge by taking other positive affirmative positions right and even a short position right a hedge fund position something like that it's still positive to you you make the decline be a positive gain right so it's still a positive position an inherently negative position is I'm just going to hide everything in a box under my bed well then deflation is going to eat your fucking lunch buddy there's nothing you can do about all the things that you're afraid of that would crash the market are all tied to inflation and the other's name is in the market is due to inflation and if the market collapses inflation goes to hell so all your money being in cash well you're fucked well I got gold you if you don't think they can manipulate the gold market you ain't been paying attention for a hundred years so I'm not saying

1:07:50it's a bad investment I'm saying you have a diversity of positions economically and a diversity of positions from an income standpoint if the days of feeling safe with a single source of income like I have a job therefore I have an income and I am in demand therefore I have another job if I need one therefore my income is stable that might get you a loan or a credit card but it's not going to get you through what's coming and we are only beginning to see that great period of flux that I predicted between 2020 and 2030 and I recently slid that prediction up five years that the real flux is 2025 2035 2020 to 2025 was a preamble those are preamble I was right just a little overly optimistic we're in the middle of it right now and it's going to accelerate from here stay informed but limit your consumption of news understanding events matters but constant media exposure just cloud your government your judgment and this is I'm going to tell you the real reason

1:08:53why that's so true if you are raw raw raw USA USA we're number one you're going to watch Fox News and Newsmax you know if you are Trump is a big meany and I'm upset with him doing this and generally speaking I like the United States to do well in the military even all but I you don't like Trump so I don't like this war you're going to watch fucking MSNBC maybe CNN if you're kind of somewhere gravitating in the middle of that you're probably going to shoot CNN over MSNBC or MSNOW whatever fuck they call themselves if you are we're going to lose I ran is so strong we can't win it's all the Jews fault and all that shit then you're going to listen to like RT and Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson so what actually makes the whole thing of over consumption of media worse is because you have this place to pick and choose from and since very few people can experience the discomfort of gathering their media from like five totally different angles and then

1:10:00combining it and trying to discern the truth based on everybody's claims you're going to choose the one that aligns with your bias you're going to make your bias worse so the only real choice you have is to put a hard limit on how much media you pay attention to and it doesn't matter it doesn't matter if it's Candace Owens and Zero Hedge it doesn't matter if it's Fox News and Newsmax it doesn't matter if it's Fox News in your three favorite paid GOP Trump supporting accounts on TikTok it doesn't matter the net effect is the same so you have to limit the consumption you have to look around and say what's really going on in the world that I can see touching influence that's the only way you're going to make good decisions for yourself because most of what you're focused on no matter who's right let's say one of those like five silos of information is actually the most right no matter which one it doesn't matter which one it is I'm not going to say one because then you'll think I agree with them even if I say one that like nine out of ten people listening right now would be like he fucking hates those people he just did that to make a point

1:11:02there still be 10 per second stop it right like only by focusing on what you actually control can you actually see the net impact of your efforts and that requires shutting those things off because no matter which silo you choose and no matter how accurate or inaccurate they are the impact on your life is almost nothing that's why I waited so much to the neutral in this it's almost nothing your opinions do not influence the decisions of your government your opinions do not influence the decisions of other countries governments your opinions do not change the price of oil your opinions do not change the price of energy as a whole your opinions do not change how easy this to move the ship from one place to another you're who you vote for doesn't do that either so you have to stay within your your domicile of impact in influence and to do that effectively

1:12:04you know always say what you do matters and what you don't do matters and people always take that to like doing is good but when you choose to do things that are wasteful you do not have that time to do things that are productive and so much of the arguing about just why don't like these so much of the arguing about this bullshit okay to add all it is is a fucking different distraction you'll you'll you'll you'll mock the 21-year-old kid who doesn't even know what his life's going to be yet because he spends so much time playing multiplayer games or something living in his mom's basement neat and pop cards but your doom scrolling your favorite influencer or your your glue to Fox News really what's the difference go ahead explain it to me um you also need to position for volatility see this is this is wrong a little bit coin investor on you Bitcoin so volatile bro that's a feature not a bug if I'm DCAing into an asset I want as much

1:13:06fucking volatility as possible I I want I want this with a long-term upward trend for those you can't see because you're on audio only like 95% of you right like what I'm doing is my fingers going up and down like a heartbeat machine but my hands rising as it does it the more volatility I get along the way and occasionally this right the more I get of that the better I do is a long-term incremental investor if I get linear upside I get no benefit to volatility I have to be able to stomach the volatility to benefit and you need to be looking at your all of your investments which include investments in yourself like skill development your backyard agricultural systems whatever you're doing as to the concept that they are being built for is volatility and that is a principle that is true to the point of being a natural law because and I'll explain

1:14:09what I mean by that if you are investing heavily in food production and there's a spike in food prices you benefit if there's a huge drop in food prices because you benefited before it happened you have more money and you can capitalize on when it occurs but if you're building to volatility those systems should also adapt you have a really drier year you have a really wet year you have a colder year you have a wall see volatility isn't just money volatility is all of the things that can and will change that have an impact on the objective you've set forth so you need to design your life your systems your education your investment your diet all of it with volatility in mind next prioritize your physical and mental health work on you and actually have that mean something I think one of the most angry I ever saw a person in my life at me was I had this girl that worked for me she was very well paid by the way she made about 200 to 225 a year she was a technical

1:15:11recruiter in a company that Neil Franklin and I ran and Vietnamese girl kind of spoiled made a lot of money came from a family with a lot of money kind of person walks around with a product bag all the time and everything divorce twice just some issues right but a damn good technical recruiter I want to be sure I say that naive to some points I won't even get into it today but she had a thing about gun control she asked me and I know I know her dad ended up having a leavey at norm at the end of the war and the government wanted him dead and she's like I don't understand why Americans just won't give up their guns I said go ask your dad so just to give you the mindset of this person but one day I was talking to her and I asked her something about her personal life and she took I wasn't asking about dating but she took it that way and she said I'm not really seeing anybody right now I'm working on myself and I talked to her a little bit more about it and say lots I'm just like what do you do career development or I'm working on myself I got like three times

1:16:14in a row coming at a different angle I'm not doing that because I'm working on myself and I finally remember this woman works for me right and I said okay so what are you doing to work on yourself since I can't guess it since I haven't been able to figure it out yet like what are you doing to work on yourself are you taking courses in something are you spending time meditating and she got very mad and very flustered and for a person with Vietnamese complexion turns very very red it was clearly very upset at me now what I was doing is I was actually trying to be a good boss and that means also being a good mentor and since this woman has so much talent I was like you know it'd be great if you really were working on yourself but she wasn't doing anything and so many people when you tell them to work on yourself they think what that means is to just withdraw and space out or something I don't know when I say work on yourself I mean to have a positive proactive regime in your life that is dying to design and make you a better you we should all do that we should teach that in school by the time a third grader is asked the question

1:17:18of what is the most important thing you can work on they should pair it back like their program because at that age that's what you end up doing when you teach work on myself improve myself be a better me and I'm saying physically and mentally you should be working on being a better you now all you know there's people that you reach just I'm there too you reach a certain age and there's a certain amount of physical decline doesn't mean you have to run with it doesn't mean you just let it happen do something about it strengthen yourself emotionally spiritually and physically whatever that means to you if you're a Christian maybe that's going to church joining a church group if you're like me and you're more of a deist it means maybe spending more time in nature and contemplating the nature of man in the universe whatever that is so that you have more resolve within you and more physical resilience as well so that you live better and live longer than you would have otherwise right we none of us can actually determine you know the date we're gonna go out unless we do something horrible like commit suicide right that's

1:18:21that there's no way that we can say I am going to live to be 120 people doing that are selling snake oil if it's shit but we can determine hey man I really don't want to go out so hard you know I I don't want to go out like my granddad did spend the last three years of his life laying in a bed with his legs stuffed up those chest that was it was so overriding on his physicality that literally when they put him in the casket they hid his legs because they were unable to straighten them out I don't want to go out that way right if I live to be 90 and I live good all the way right up till the end great if I live to be 88 I'd rather be 88 live good all the way to the end to live to be 92 it's been the last four years of my life in a bed if I can if I can and that is the mindset I'm talking about you know I have a regime I'm using right now to improve myself but I've always been doing something whether it's listening to audiobooks whether it's studying whether it's learning like something to be better at and be careful what you pick to become better at

1:19:25because that time is spent and it's gone and you know there's worse things to pick being better at than like I don't know building wealth because that lets you that enables you to do other things and so from the time I'm gonna talk to you young people right now Daniel's telling something about you I've been floating over comment I can't read it right now but it's something about the younger folks listening um you are gonna spend the time between your 20th birthday and your 30th building birthday getting better at something even if it's negative you're gonna get better at it bitching complaining moaning putting on weight getting fat convincing yourself that it's all somebody else's fault can be one of those things or you could spend that time becoming physically more strong and stable developing better dietary habits developing expertise in an area that will serve you well for the rest of your life does to pick to there's a fork because nothing is the negative

1:20:25choice well I'm not gonna do either one now yeah you are you if you if you do not proactively pursue the positive you'll bite to fault walk the negative path period there's no way around it and you could be very comfortable on that negative path if you happen to hit it well with a good career you have a good income you can wake up one day and what realize you're carrying 85 fucking pounds that you don't want on your body and then you have to rebuild in your fucking 40s and it's hard guys it's way harder than just keeping it from your 20s ask me how I know but no matter where you are start walking that positive path of self improvement physically and mentally now because no matter what happens that matters and then think generationally you know I call it the seven by seven filter if it's an important decision you run the seven by seven filter what does this mean for me in the next seven minutes seven hours seven days seven

1:21:27weeks seven months seven years seven decades that's seven generational thinking if you're thinking about seven decades by default you have a impact that is going out into your seventh generation and the reason I like that seven decades number is most people don't have much influence that they leave behind until they're about 20 seven decades is 90 most people live long that either don't live that long live about that long or die soon afterward so that's about the period you get is about seven decades to do shit that has deep long lasting impacts to someone connected to you from the future back seven seven generations is about 160 years your grandchildren will probably know those people assuming you have grandchildren here's the funny thing here's the funny fricking

1:22:31thing about that the maybe funny is not the word the weird thing about that when you tell somebody to think general general general general late generationally they generally think that that means selfless sacrifice for the entirety of your existence everything I do is for the great great grandchild they'll never know and I'll never get to see the benefit of it but the person that thinks in seven generations does sacrifice in a decade they do better in the second and they do phenomenally better in the third the generational thinker actually has better short term relative results they have better retirements they live better and look better when they're 50 than the guy who live better and look better when he was 25 because he was going to the gym when he was 25 but he was also fucking off all the time spent it all money all the time and as he hit his 30s and he got married he joined all the organizations and the clubs and he got fat

1:23:35and he put on debt and he set up college funds for his kids and all time the guy does pretty well but the guy that did the sacrifice early didn't have to sacrifice anywhere there's much in the middle when he was at peak earning years and peak investing years and long before he had to retire he either chose to retire or transitioned into something else that made his life a little bit better while still being able to earn really really well those are your choices but that comes from those last two those are the most two important things that can advise you in in your life not just today but anytime prior to eyes your physical and mental health and thinking generations not in not in weeks not in months anyway appreciate you guys doing with me today I'm gonna go through these questions I got about six what I'm gonna do right now is I'm gonna switch over to that view and I'm gonna real quickly a real slowly kind of scroll through the

1:24:35questions so if you think you have a question or a comment in and you don't see it come up here then you need to re-ask it while I do my kind of closing segment and then I'll come back and I will answer all these questions and thank Amy for her super chat as well so with that in mind let's go ahead and wrap up some of the other things first today number one I wrote this book that really hits on a lot of things that we covered here at the end called laws of life ditch the system design your life and that's what it's about it's about these these laws of how humans work and how humans interact and if you understand and follow these laws you can build an incredible life and you can design an incredible life and you can find out more just by looking for laws of life on amazon or go to jackslaws.com but something that came out of that was all the work that we've been doing with AI and we have run three three roles of this AI for entrepreneurs course the results of students

1:25:39have got have been phenomenal I don't we haven't actually set a launch date for the next round yet but the last three rounds did in fact sell out the last round sold so that a little slower but it was right up against Christmas so I think that's why because we still have a huge list of people that have signed up to sign up for the course to pre-register and I'm going to remind you guys if you want to do that you should do that now if you want to get in that course if you want to build a business this course is for you if you just want to learn AI we're I'm working on some other stuff but I've got these other books I'm trying to do and it's going to take me time to get it out but this course is for entrepreneurs specifically small companies solo partners things like that if you want to build that in your life or you already have something you want to expand it you want to take this course we only take a hundred people out of time so get on over to jacks laws there'll be a little banner at the top click that and sign up and pre-register for this course because when it comes it again it it sells out quickly we usually try to give you a pretty good

1:26:42several week we'll run up to it I've got two out of town things coming up that makes the little harder that support from my end I'm going to talk to Tom this week will come up with a hard launch date but if you want to be involved pre-register for it because you are not getting in if you are not pre-registered next up today though our item of the day remember you can all support the show and the work that we do just by doing your online shopping starting from where tspaz.com tspaz.com if you get on over there before you buy something online you'll help us out no matter what it is today's item of the day is the Walt 20 volt max cordless pruner and for those of you in the video I happen to have one for you to get a better look at right here I give you a little more scale on it this thing is a beast it is an electric pruner and it is like to replace hand pruners and in this case some pretty daggone honking big hand pruners it's got a little safety on

1:27:42it you squeeze that down and then this is the the pito part maker 101 man if you work for the mob or something you could take all kinds of parts off to collect what you had due to you but what it's really for is trees and bushes and shrubs it is incredibly powerful I have a full-ready video review for you you can find that at the survivalpodcast.com or tspaz.com even as a little light so you can see what you're doing and I love this tool I own two of them that tells you how much I love it when it comes to doing a lot of pruning work and we're coming up on a time when a lot of that's going to happen these are frickin fantastic and they're on sale today 90 bucks no battery no charger that's bear tool only you guys are already into all platform by the way if you're on a different platform and you really want this tool they make make adapters so you can get a the walk adapter to make like your mckito work or anything but on that wait there's more look at did the wall make a little one a little version of it look cute one now this is made by a company

1:28:44called yavv ywv and it is a miniature version they made it in black and yellow so it looks nice to the wall people it's not quite as powerful but it's nothing to do with the power because it uses the wall battery that's what makes it cool these are 50 bucks and it'll shift you bear tool just like that if you're a wall user mckita and riobe they make one for you guys too and between those and battery adapters anybody should be able to do this if they want to find someone to work why would you have this instead of that big one it's lighter and smaller it gets into places others don't my wife as long as what she's pruning is small enough stock which is up to about a half inch she prefers this because lighter and easier on her hands I prefer it when I'm doing like we're in my garden when I'm doing work in my garden and it's like overgrown vines from last year someone just pulling out and cutting it because if you rip it you're going to tear the ground out for

1:29:44stuff like that and for smaller stuff I actually prefer it so I have both and you might want that as well but either way like it depends on you know size your homestead what kind of work you're doing etc those of you that are big into making biochar especially in small scale like using like a Weber kettle grill as a kiln or something there's all kinds of information about that in my right up as well but check these out and remember it doesn't matter if you buy them you know buy some online just go to teesmas.com if you think that we provide value to and you'd want to help us that would be a great way to help us out that doesn't really cost you anything at all just maybe a couple extra seconds of your time and at teesmas you'll find everything I've reviewed I put things through their paces and what you won't find there is this thing sucks don't buy it with a few exceptions of they don't make it anymore so now buy this or I found something better so now buy this if it's not good I don't I don't talk about it and just like that item right there the stuff I recommend is all stuff that I bought in my own life and I started doing the reviews and figured

1:30:45I can make a few bucks off of it when people started asking me about paying all this stuff and I'm like well I do have a lot of stuff and I do put a lot of research and things before I pick them up and I'm a pretty well I'm an asshole when it comes to quality I expect quality to be what's promised and so when it's not I'm pretty critical so anyway let's do what we can uh do here ikamau say I don't know where she was because she showed back up last week and I'm glad she's back ikamau says what the f there are 92 watching get only 29 thumbs up smash that like uh smash the like button and let the youtube algorithm know it's worth sharing with other people or face my fiery wrath so not really a question but thank you for that ikamau next up what do we got here uh we have question from Vince let's leave it at that Vince the fat flat farmer after the US fixes the world's oil shipping problems do you think that maybe we could get some new refineries here in the US to refine our own oil well that's interesting we refine our own oil okay we produce 92

1:31:49percent of our own or 91 percent of our own oil we don't send it to another country to refine it for us does that mean we have sufficient refining capacity to deal with problems when they have it no and it would be nice for us to start building some more refineries my understanding is there's actually a brand new refinery being built in Texas right now though kind of like Texas Louisiana out that bow mount area that we're finally building a new modern refineries so uh that is progress but that'd be great if we did I don't know if it's really a question that's more of a rhetorical right Jeff Lawton says I have and this is interesting to have him comment here uh Jeff says I have worked with the Iranian Ministry of Agriculture Iran the Iranians are the best organic farmers and environmental engineers with the best suitable operations on earth this is our biggest loss but it's also why we really why we really the US needs to go to war with them I think what he's saying is that protects our agricultural hegemony maybe I'm not sure about that Jeff I don't know I don't think that's why we went to war with Iran I think that would be very low on a list of

1:32:53reasons I do think that the expertise of agriculture in the Middle East specifically if you get outside of the people that are under the thumb of the United States is some of the highest quality expertise in the world um especially in certain regions and that we have lost so much of the wisdom of those systems of agriculture and let's do a thought experiment here on why agriculture might be a place that we should do we should focus more the entire reasoning behind the current agricultural system what we have is we have to feed the huge population of people but we need a very small number of people relatively the population be able to produce those things so all the other people could do all the other productive things like work in factories and work swing shift and work in the health care system caring for people that have type 37 diabetes and all the other things right well maybe we don't need that if people were healthy

1:33:56maybe a lot like right now the largest growth and employment in the United States is in the health care sector and that's been the case for a long time and in eight doctors by the way just saying it's administrators it's technicians it's people to clean people's adult diapers it's people to work in remote clinics not really remote clinics uh smaller clinics that do dialysis Davita is one of the biggest growing companies in the medical center uh which is primarily giving end of end of life kidney dialysis to keep life going and hopefully get a transplant someday the people blown up kidneys from type 2 diabetes um there's a lot of things that a lot of people are doing that maybe we don't need them doing but there's also a lot of things people are doing that whether we need it or not we don't need those people to do it anymore because AI automation robotics etc is taking things over additionally at the same time we've come back to agriculture here in a second i promise folks we have rung out the sponge on profitability

1:35:01in a system that joint judges every company on its ability to make not a profit every year but more profit next year than it may last year your dog shit you make the same you make good money you return good value to shareholders you make roughly the same amount of money every year adjusted to inflation so yeah your sales are going up a little bit your profits going up a little bit but it basically matches inflation you're a incredibly stable company you do everything right you're moral and ethical you employ a lot of people your employees like working there your customers love you the fucking market hates you you're your dog shit you're not even dog shit you're what's under the dog shit after the dog shit starts to rot and the maggots are eating it and the maggot shit is rotting into the earth and you're not even that because that is perceived as valuable as fertilizer you are useless to the market if you are a stable but non growing company that's where we live so the companies is getting to keep increasing that profit margin what is the one thing left they can't they can't increase efficiency much more from a standpoint of just raw

1:36:05efficiency right they can't do it they can't drive down the cost of the raw materials any further about the only variable left is energy that's part of all the shit's going on so what is the one thing they can do what is the one expense that they can actually cut and in some cases cut a lot of it even without robotics AI and automation right then actually has a direct impact on profitability headcount employee headcount so when you get a guy like Elon Musk buys Twitter because 80% of the workforce and nothing bad happens sends a message doesn't it notice that when he did that he didn't like immediately start using AI to replace those people he's got rid of them and said if something really bad happens we can go hire one of them back or hire someone to do what they did so anybody it looks like we don't need them get rid of them let's see what happens and the answer was nothing all bunch of people that spent all day eating food and doing yoga and complaining

1:37:08about the world and censoring people were let go and son of a bitch nothing have how many how much could that be replaced what does employment look like over the next 20 30 40 years in that reality what does the world look like that used to be primarily a one income household and all of a sudden in the 1970s became the default was a two income household and everything in humanity worked up until that point with one income per household running headlong into this reality of fiat runaway money fiat runaway economy fiat runaway society and corporations at their last gas the only way we can increase profit is to have less people do the work it looks like a lot of unemployed people so if we have a lot of unemployed people and we develop these systems that are more like midden farms more small scale super high quality super nutritious more local food

1:38:12those people need something to do don't they and it's one of the most rewarding things a human being can do it would blow you away if you traveled world Mexico especially down in kind of what they call the waste the thin part and went up into these farms that are up in the steep hills where they has not converted to modern agriculture because it can't because you can't plow you know 20 degree slopes with little terraces and just look at the varieties and the diversity of maze what we call corn that they grow things you've never seen never heard of and the sad part is right now locally that farmer is undercut by American farm selling dog shit GMO corn because it's so cheap to produce but if you build a world based on value where people value things

1:39:12we have this incredibly like they're not diversity diversity diversity diversity diversity diversity diversity what would be a diversity because it was a natural result of effort that's resilience so I think there's an incredible opportunity to restore global stability by restoring traditional agricultural techniques and marrying them to what we've learned in the last 5,000 years on top of that and I really hope Jeff stuck around here that he probably didn't I might snip that and send it to him next up Jesse says what is your quick take on the current Cuba situation well I'm going to piss off the anti-crab that we hate Trump crowd the anti-honours of anti-crab right now a lot but I haven't done to nothing to do with him in reality this is another this is the quick analysis though of the same type of thing here Cuba is a country that with the support of the country like America even just economically and verbally and sending certain signals

1:40:17and offering certain things after all these years of sanctions based on its size and the population ratio to its government is ripe for a popular revolution retaking the country back from communism it's actually the lowest hanging fruit and I think it's why they left it for the last there is a shitload of pent up desire for freedom in that country since the old man Castro kicked the bucket things have not gotten better they've gotten worse the Soviet Union cut bait with them when it collapsed that put them on the edge and at that time had we wanted to we could have normalized relations with Cuba and Castro would have given us everything we asked for and we squandered it and if you want to know more about that going all the way back into the honestly Reagan could have done that that's how old that is

1:41:19read leiacocus book where have all the leaders gone and you'll you'll hear stories of leiacocca in the backseat of a fucking limousine with shotguns going out in the middle of nowhere with fiddle Castro to hunt doves okay like I'm not just basing this on some random bullshit like I have been a well-read person my whole life and I don't go to the media I go to the people that experience things to to understand what was actually going on and people that were diametrically opposed to each other by examining both sides I get so all in I think that Cuba is going to experience some form of popular revolution and something akin to a democracy unfolding but it will still be a very largely socialist economy I think it will become very possible in maybe the next four or five years for people who are dissidents from Castro's Cuba and their descendants to go back to Cuba to visit to be there if they want to be there and I think we will have overall fairly positive relations with Cuba within five years and I also think that you'll be

1:42:23able to buy Cuban cigars again and I do think all that so if that upset you because you hate Trump I don't care and I will tell you just like the Iran thing and I think the probability of Cuba is much higher if Trump pulls that shit off he will be seen as a hero if nothing else by the Cuban population of Florida who already tend to prefer Republicans it's not my opinion of whether it's good or bad or he really is a hero this I'm telling you the marketing that will will come behind it I think that's very probable far more probable than getting a positive outcome in the Middle East but again if if he pulls that off and you hate him you're really gonna hate that shit because he'll go down as one of the after being impeached twice losing an election having to come back and win again being convicted he does all that shit his harshest critics that are actually logical not just emotional and not just tribal we'll even

1:43:26have to say a fuck what do you mean yeah okay those are all good things like anybody saying that's bad especially after the fact and I'm sure there'll be a lot of a lot of trying to come up with but it really wasn't him right okay whatever man buddy let's let's go on for there kind of side tracked on that one I got question or that that point by Jeff was great by the way Ben says do you think Dubai's position will change is a new economic hub people are panic selling their properties at the moment because of the hour no I don't panic sellers are great I love panic sellers panic sellers are the greatest thing that ever happens you know I mentioned Bitcoin a couple times in this show today and I want to pull up something that kind of makes my point about that so Peter Schiff has been the greatest critic of Bitcoin ditch well known anyway that you

1:44:28know has a huge following that type of thing right boomer shift and when the ETFs came out it was an example of when you can't spend something to the negative but you do it anyway and what he said was the ETFs are actually bad for Bitcoin because when all that institutional money comes in there these people just trade they don't hold crazy like all these these these crazy you know activist types and these anarchists these libertarians do and when they sense danger they just liquidate their stuff really that's interesting because this graph says you're wrong dude this graph shows you what people that think logically and methodically about investing do when people panic sell so now it comes back to Ben's question so for those that can't see this I'll explain it but if I if I come back to about right here this is November 27th this is when the Bitcoin current bull market really

1:45:28began and you can see there was a little dive off before that almost like institutional events there's sense that you're heading in that direction but look what has happened this is just how much Bitcoin is held collectively by the ETFs there's there is the growth the inflection of the growth point from that point forward is almost equal to the initial run up when they were first launched in other words they're stacking their asses off while the retail panic sellers sell and I'm going to tell you when it comes to real estate that's more the case now it's you you can't go buy and house is on a hundred dollar weekly DCA really right like there are reats of things you can invest into like that but you can't just go buying property and do buy or whatever but when people panic sell the people that are like billionaire type companies billionaire multi billionaire company that's when they buy that's when they buy I would tell you I would invest

1:46:34in real estate right now and do buy before I would in New York City because at least the buy is being run by you know they're both being run by Arabic people at this point and that's all good and well but the people in Dubai are in Dubai are highly competent at managing a society even if I wouldn't run it the way they do I can't say they're not competent the people running New York City right now are morons so I would be more likely to be a panic buyer right right I'm buying against the panic in Dubai right now than I would be buying in New York City now I really don't want to buy either one neither one of them fits with my goals but if I'm doing this purely purely on an economics basis yeah that's what I'm doing Amy throws me a $20 superchats as gas money I used your sprouting techniques this week well I'm glad you did that thank you I appreciate that I think she's talking about the paper towel technique which you've never heard of before you have seeds that are hard to germinate you take a paper towel maybe three or four layers of it you wet it you squeeze it out really good you fold it down to a little square you put your seeds on one side you fold it in half

1:47:37you stick that they zip lock bag you put a date on it you stick it in nice warm place where you'll see it you check it every day and when you see little root let's start to come out then you plant your seeds you get much better results that way especially with things that are hard to sprout then this wasn't a question but it did catch my eye Dennis says and Dennis has been around a long time as well it's amazing how similar Jack and Tony Robbins are I took his unleash your power seminar that's interesting to me because I've always not I've always tried not to be you know that zig ziggler Tony Robbins motivational raw raw you can guy but I also think that there are basic things that you can do that actually improve your life and when you break it down to the brass tax anybody teaching anything that works and if for Robbins you know Robbins is not a flash in the pan gone guy he is like zig ziggler from back in the day people that stick around in that space for that long and continue to be sought out generally they're teaching the right

1:48:40techniques and processes so I will take that as a compliment sir thank you very much to make values values as far as decisions good decisions bill wealth okay I don't know what you're responding to I'm just looking to see if there's anybody else to talk to uh don't see anybody else asking a question oh I got one eke-mass I'll always give eke-mass but she's still she's still on it only 72 thumbs showing did you all step away from the monitor and make coffee like I did him forget I was watching smash that like or I smash your fingers whoa thanks be yeah definitely guys really please hit that like if you liked what we had to say today I really appreciate it and leave us a comment I know a lot of you were very active today in the chat we had it really going but the chat doesn't really help us as far as like video discovery or anything like that so when you're done if you really like the show it'd be great if you could just drop us a comment

1:49:44including what you disagreed with some of my best shows come from people that disagree with me sometimes like aha you're wrong and I'll prove it sometimes like the disagreement like that's not what I said and then I know I was misunderstood and then we can actually dig into a whole different angle on that we're actually I agree with you and sometimes it just makes me think of things that I didn't think of before because I don't know everything and I might even be like well I don't know if I was wrong but I was wrong about this part and I'm open to that and so I'm always open into discussion I'm always open to feedback just because I slam people sometimes doesn't mean I'm not open to feedback if it's logical and it's not name calling and it's not like a bunch of provodables you don't know anything like I don't I don't tolerate people like that actually and I've had actually I'll tell you kind of wrap it completely up here I've had this change in philosophy over the years when I first started and you start to build up a podcast like this you start to get a lot of feedback some of it negative some of it positive and the negative always seems so harsh because you've never really been attacked that way by people that don't even

1:50:45know you before and then real quick you develop thick skin you get into kind of the backhand smack like piss off I didn't ask for you silence I kill you right like if you just slaughter them and then you kind of think they're idiots and then eventually you realize like how sad is it but I'm not talking about negative comments and I'm talking about the people that are like hate filled like they're professional haters they track you they become your personal trolls and so how sad is it how sad is it to the person has the time and energy in their life to latch on to somebody as low level as Jack Spirco and show up time and time again to throw hate and so now instead of like the back hands I actually pity people like that I pity people like that you know you're a student is cook or I pity you like how you got there I don't even I don't even want to try to figure out the mental gymnastics you went through to try to get it right he's building a straw man you don't even know what I'm talking about I know you though how you got there but I feel bad for

1:51:47you because I know the person doing that isn't doing all this other shit that I just got compared to Tony Robbins for in building positive aspects of their life you're not building a family you're not building a career you're not building a skill set you're not building a knowledge base you're trying to convince the world the earth is flat either literally or figuratively and no one will care at all that effort all that potential talent all that potential greatness is wasted in temporal capital that you'll never get back you could have been building something of your own if you really think I'm wrong you could even be building a great platform to explain your view to people but no you're throwing hate at me or other creators and this is across the board in my new book I talk about a woman whose tumbles rocks on tiktok she tumbles rocks she puts rocks in a rock tumbler says what do you think these are gonna look like and she tumbles them and she puts them in shows like

1:52:51what can we have done different things like that very nice kind of middle-aged soccer mom is lady that a big thing for me I just happened to notice her and that's why she ended up in the book but when I was like eight I would love freaking content like that just mainly her people watching her are like homeschool mobs and kids and stuff like that and yet you'll still have that person looks like comic book guy from real fucking simsons you dead stupid and hate spitting hate how sad is that person how sad is that the thing is I'm not really willing to give up on if you're hearing me and that's you I'm not willing to give up on you yet I'm not willing to quit on you yet maybe one of the reasons you don't like people like me as we believe in you more than you believe in yourself I believe that even if you take a completely opposite path for me you can do something great with your life that'll last in matter I challenge you to shut up long enough to listen to yourself long enough to believe in yourself enough to go do it instead of worry about what other people

1:53:55should do you don't thank you I'll catch you tomorrow with a completely different subject I probably let me show you a better way you don't have to be another face in the crowd don't have to live the way they tell you to you make your own way the other way is a little far from you revolutions

1:54:58revolutions