Who's spending big, and where, in most expensive election cycle ever

0:00While spending for this year's midterms is accelerating, the closer we get to Election Day. Our political correspondent Lisa Desjardins is here to make dollars and cents of the billion spent to influence who controls Congress next year. Lisa, good to see you. So the money race has been swelling for years. What's different about this year in particular? The scale is incredibly different. This is now going to be the most spending for campaign ads, not just in a midterm, but including presidential elections. So the most in any election in American history, also different this year, mega donors. There are more of them and they are spending more money. The New York Times did a good analysis of the top spenders. These are the top Republican spenders, all of them billionaires you see. They're topping the list you see, those two men and the venture capital firm that they run, Andreessen Horowitz. These two have spent some $115 million along with their firm. A major part of their aim is AI and cryptocurrency policy. Once you see Jeff Yaz, a hedge fund investor, he is spending some $94 million just this

1:00cycle, school choice, a top issue for him. Next, a familiar face, that's Elon Musk. Donating mainly to national Republican campaign funds, those are the Republicans. There's only really one Democratic mega donor who is in that zone. That is George Soros, another hedge fund manager. He and his immediate family have donated some $104 million. Now, that is a pro, two Democratic super PACs which divided up, we don't know a lot because these super PACs, of course, are generally dark money. This is very different than the small dollar rise that we were seeing in former years. What does this mean for democracy? We talked to Daniel Thompson, who is at UC Irvine. She just wrote a book this year called The Money Signal, How Fundraising Matters in American Politics. Most scholars have found little evidence that campaign contributions, for example, by lawmaker votes. Lawmaker votes are instead a reflection of members, partisan affiliation, the preferences

2:03are of their constituents and their own personal beliefs. But scholars have found that campaign contributions can facilitate access. And access is power. Elon Musk is still being appointed and considered for major positions in this government. She also found that something is changing in early money, that now even first time candidates are having to raise more earlier on in the competition, and that mega donors in particular are donating in the general election, meaning they don't care as much about the individual candidate. They care about the party that wins. So the biggest mega donors, as you point out, there generally tend to be Republican, how big is that overall money advantage for the GOP? It is substantial. We just got new figures from Add Impact today. Here they are. This is the amount of ads that have been booked, reserved for the next month up until the election itself. And you can see Republicans have reserved $641 million at the VADs, Democrats $490 million. So that's almost a third, a 31 percent difference.

3:05And speaking with Republicans, just anecdotally, I am hearing that they are spending more money in what are generally considered safe districts. These are incumbents who have never seen numbers as low as they are. They may not be vulnerable, but they are having to spend more money. It places like Ruby Red Arkansas. It's called Flamingo Red, Florida. So Republicans are having to spread out their money. They have more, but they are spreading it out. I spoke to John Link of Add Impact, and he said it's about $7 billion in ads so far. Just as a quick comparison point, it's about $870 million more than we saw in the presidential in 24 that were just coming out of the comparable midterm in 2022. We're about $2 billion ahead of that pace, and almost $2.5 billion ahead of the 2020 presidential. So we live in an environment where we continue to see increased spend in the political advertising ecosystem. Republicans have also gained from the Supreme Court ruling, which allows the party to coordinate

4:06more with their candidates. We've talked and you've covered about the MAP expanding for Democrats. You mentioned we're spending in some of those red districts. Where else is the money going in this race? Well, as I said, they're spreading it out across the country. And this is not to say that we, they are determined to keep this right here, but the amount is massive. And I want to look at the key, the number one states that Add Impact says where most of the funding has been going. These are the top seven when you combine the primary spending and the general election spending so far. Now, in red, you see those right now. These are the top three Republican spending states on defense, Texas, Ohio, and Maine. Together, just those three states on a billion dollars in Add spending. And then you look at the top Democrat expending, that's Michigan and Georgia of Michigan, in part because they had such an expensive primary race. Now this will keep shifting, as I'm trying to say. We know today, where there was news at a top Republican fund moved money from North Carolina, where they are on defense to Kansas. And that is usually an indication that they think they're losing and that the money is

5:09more valuable, not in North Carolina, but on offense or defense rather in Kansas. So Republicans are having to make some really key decisions. They have a lot of money, but they don't have enough necessarily to cover the map as it's expanding. As you're covering and digging into all these figures, what else stands out to you about where the money is going and how it's being used? Well, it's not just the amount of spending, but exactly that, how it's being used, where it's going, what kind of add. And in 2022, according to Add Impact, you can see there in blue, most of this spending was on TV and radio. However, look at this year. Now, you see TV radio spending, it's about the same, but look at those new categories that have really jumped up, that is streaming, that's web, that's where a lot of this surge day loose of funding and spending is going. Now some Democrats are hopeful that people can just block those kinds of ads, but Republicans think that's where their low propensity voters are. So this election is not just a test of ideology, but it is in some ways a test of how you get your news and what add you listen to. All right.

6:10These are Day-Zharadam. Following the money, thank you, Lisa. You're welcome.