Weekly Market Recap - Friday, 2-Oct

0:00Good afternoon and welcome to the fact set weekly market recap. Today is Friday, October 2, 2026. Major US equity indices were mostly lower this week, breadth remained weak. S and P 500 decliners handily outnumbered gainers, fewer than 25% of index constituents were above their 50 day moving averages. And the equal weight RSP logged its seventh straight weekly decline, which last occurred in 2022 and 2002. SEME's and SEME caps had another strong week. SOX logged its fifth straight weekly gain. The memory leg of the AI trade lagged a bit with HDD makers coming under competitive pressure. Software was also largely higher, particularly cybersecurity names. Other outperformers included networking and communications, E and C's, trucking, refiners, utilities, and casual diners.

1:00Treasuries were mostly weaker with the curve steepening. Short end yields dipped a bit, amid decreased near-term rate hike expectations, while the 10 year and 30 year saw yields hit 24 year highs before pulling back off those levels. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses. Gold was down 3.7%. Silver was off 6.8%. Bitcoin futures rose 1%. Their sixth weekly gain of the past seven weeks. WTI crude dropped 1.4%. Its third consecutive weekly decline. The move came amid waning diplomatic traction and thoughts about re-escalation. But also attention on improved horror mues flows and announcement of coordinated 7 stockpile releases. Yeals were a major focus this week, with the 10 year and 30 year yields hitting their highest levels since 2002, though ended the week off those record levels. There remain a lot of moving parts in that narrative, including persistent above target inflation,

2:06elevated energy prices, and solid economic growth prospects. Treasury market volatility remained in view, with a continued large divergence between an elevated move index and a relatively sedate VX. Near-return Fed rate hike expectations eased this week with a lot of attention on New York Fed President Williams' comments Tuesday about no need for urgency following September's hike. Vice Chair Jefferson echoed that Thursday saying policymaker judgment on policy may take more time. Futures pricing now reflects only an approximately 23% chance of an October hike, from 64% a week ago. Another big factor in that downshift was Friday's softer than expected September payrolls release, with the headline showing only 29,000 in job gains against an approximately 90,000 consensus, and notable downward revisions to prior months.

3:07The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, though that came alongside a step-up in labor force participation. There was also some help from a cooler, August core PCE reading. Downward adjustments due to scheduled methodological changes seemed to be greater than expected. Other economic releases this week were mixed. September ISM manufacturing printed below consensus, with some attention on a jump-up for the price-as-paid component. September consumer confidence dropped month-on-month, with the labor market differential narrowing. Initial jobless claims remained near-cycle lows while continuing claims hit their lowest level in three-and-a-half years. The week brought another flurry of AI headlines. Open AI held its DevDay Tuesday, unveiling its dots, agentic system. The company also scrapped the planned October release of GPT 6.1 Astra on control issues. Axios reported its ARR is moving towards $70 billion. Invidia announced an AI safety platform.

4:14Reuters reported details of Anthropics IPO prospectus, including $518 billion of future cloud and infrastructure commitments. The IPO is expected in mid-November. Google saw no real boost from the release of its Gemini 4 Argon model. Oracle invoked a force measure on a large data center project in New Mexico, though it may still be liable for costs. There was limited progress on the Iran front this week. UN Spark diplomacy appears to have fizzled out, with sequencing of concessions and relief, seeming to be a major roadblock. Trump reiterated this week that the US could return to kinetic action after the November midterms, and the administration dispatching a third-carrier battle group to the region this week is consistent with that narrative. That's it for the fact that weekly market recap have a good weekend everyone.