Week 3 NFL Picks and Predictions

0:00What's up everyone? Welcome to take the point sports lines NFL picture. We're going to take you through every single NFL game on the slate. Give you some picks. Some people have stronger. Some people have leans, but guaranteed you will have something to take home for every single game. I'm a Kenzie Brooks, your host. Now let's bring in our crew. We got our Jay. We got Larry. We got Brinson and we got picks. We have a lot of games through guys. And we're going to start with Thursday night football. And if you, you know, you're watching this after Thursday, just do yourself a favor and skip through here. But let's start this off strong. Falcons out the Packers Packers laying five, five and a half at home, depending where you're looking over under step to 43. Now what I will say is the Falcons are four and no straight up as underdogs in prime time games since 2025. That's a nugget for you. But RJ, hello, a and b, you say otherwise. Are you saying what? Yeah, we, uh, we actually took this Monday morning on

1:01sportsline.com, you know, we can get them early edges if you sign up for sportsline.com. We had plus seven because it looked like penics was going to play. He was a full practice all last week. We saw how disastrous the quarterback position has been the last two weeks could not go forward with that situation. So figured he would be in this game. And it looks like he is, you know, they've been limited by that play. But it's a big deal getting him back is probably one of the bigger drop offs in the league going from him to the situation that it was the last two weeks. So that's going to open up an offense that should be able to attack Green Bay downfield and make the defense respect the past rather than everybody stacking up to stop the e-john because they know Cooper rushing going to beat him. And Green Bay dealing with a ton of injuries lost multiple offensive lineman and Jaden Reed last week. I just can't have confidence in covering a big numbers. Love that it's plus seven come down like you said, to five and a half, five some places, even four and a half at some books. I would still play it because I think it should probably be a three point line. So I'm taking the Falcons plus five and a half. Okay, Brinson seems like we're aligned in this play. Also hello to Brinson from Vegas where he claims he has a wedding

2:03this weekend, but has to be there Wednesday at three pay Eastern. Yeah, no, I mean, look, I, I, I, I am here early. You don't want to be late to weddings. That's all I gotta say. Shout out to to Cooper and Hayley. There's some responsible Brinson for making sure you're gonna. I got a five a.m. My time five a.m. You're gonna make sure I was here on time. Yeah, I like the Falcons here, you know, I don't I think so the perception of the Falcons and RJ's right to seven is just fantastic. And we'll talk some I think about Drake London as well who sees a massive spike in his target here when Michael Pinnix is under center. This line is just too big. The Falcons are terrible or weren't terrible the first two weeks, but now the difference in upgrade from Cooper Rush and Jack Shrandt to Michael Pinnix is pretty significant if Pinnix is pretty significant if Pinnix is remotely healthy. So I like getting the points with the Falcons here to keep it close for short week for both teams. The Falcons have

3:06been humiliated two time coaching the Eurkheim Saphansky should be motivated to make sure this team does something in terms of like offensive production because the Panthers beat you know beat your socks off last week. And I just think on a short week with a team playing a team that doesn't have a great defense in the Packers and as it looked exceptional on offense, the Falcons can keep this close so I have to stay within the number. Yeah, I call week three and I sometimes abuse this term but regression to the mean week where it's like, okay, if you show me two really poor performances in week one and two, something has to give like this is still a professional football team. Like at some point you have to not look that awful. But I would argue that devil's advocate for the Packers side too. Like I think there's so much more to this team. You get the home field advantage wouldn't call an official play. I'm leaning towards the Packers side but nothing crazy. So we have two true picks for the Falcons plus the five and a half hoping you can get that number still Larry. Let's go to you on some player props here. A lot of

4:06us are looking like we're in the receiving game on this one. Yeah, without Jay to read yet such a condensed route, you know, distribution with the Packers. You have Christian Watson. You have Matthew Golden who's only one target behind him. 18 targets in the first two games. We know he has blazing speed sub four three 40. Remember Xavier LeGet going for 55 yards against the Falcons. This is a guy he can get over his prop of 50 and a half in one long play. So I love Christian Watson. I love Matthew Golden. The Packers absolutely cannot run the ball. So I think you're looking at those two wide outs. You're looking at Tucker craft. We know AJ Tarell is out for the Falcons who played pretty well defensively but now they're missing their best corner. So I'm going to back Golden because he's a little bit cheaper than Christian Watson. Yeah, that's fair. I'm going to go with the Watson anytime touchdown. That's plus 150. But I feel like that's a pretty awesome number for a guy who's technically scored in seven of his last 10 and it doesn't feel like that's the ratio that odds makers are really looking at

5:06right now. The Packers are an offense. I historically would avoid because that's just eight wide receiver twos and you just didn't really know who the guy was. But now we're like in this digestible offense and it is golden and is Watson. So I feel like they're still pracing it. Like there's so many receivers and so many options. But there's really not any more. So to get plus 150 on Watson, that's a spot I want to be at. Both of you guys are Jay on Drake London here on the other side. Yeah, I'm taking a London to go over 64 and a half receiving yards. Got this at 62 and a half on the site. His 8.9 yards for target with penics is better than any other quarter back that he has played with. And penics is also by far the best quarterback on London targets. So it's just a great situation for those two to be in the Packers gave up 92 yards and two touchdowns to Justin Jefferson and week one mostly with Carson Wentz in place, not with the starting quarterback. And I would argue penics is probably an upgrade on Carson Wentz at this point. London averaged around 75 yards per game in each of his last two seasons. And I think the line should be closer to that. I don't

6:07know why this isn't an average or better situation for him. So I think he's going to get over that 75, but I only have to play 65. So I love playing the over 64 and a half receiving yards for London. Yeah. And if you have penics coming in who seems like he's a bit of a a mental head case right now himself, I feel like Drake London is the safety blanket. And Brinson, hopefully that's him getting in the end zone. Yeah, I mean, I think it like and I'm not you know suggesting playing anytime touched like your parlay is here. But like if you're going to start a parlay through this game like a same game parlay, I like Christian Watson and Drake London anytime touched down. So I love the over one that RJ mentioned. I think I put that up on sports line two at 64 and a half. It is climbed up to 65 and a half in some other spots. I mean, you know, you mentioned Michael Patek's head case. Like I don't know. I like let's look at his Falcons team. If everything breaks right for them and they go and beat the Packers on Thursday night and then Sunday shifts out weirdly. Like they could be tied for first in the NFC South. It's not even like it's not even that like unlikely. But it's not not likely. But it's not

7:07it's certainly not impossible. And I just think you're going to see Pinnix is a chance. You know, they brought him to a sort of like maybe the stopgap but maybe the guy to take a job. Pinnix can go in there and seize this job and put to a the back burner for the rest of the season if he's able to stay healthy by going and beating the Packers in in week three. So I think we see a pretty inspired performance by him. And I do think he locks in on Drake London and certainly locks in on him down by the red zone if they're unable to run it in with pizza. That is my exact hesitation with this team is the pressure and the opportunity. I don't know if inspired is the word of Pinnix football when those are the things on the line here. But like I agree like this could be a generational game for him and basically write the tale of the rest of the season for this team not to be dramatic. We got some people in the chat. I see Dylan daily locks. He's in here tuning in from the office. He did want to bet potentially on the Eagles Bears game. But uh, we'll get there when we get there Dylan stick around. We'll see what happens here. Any other questions? I know somebody was asking RJ what you would play the London prop up to what

8:08you're comfortable with. Yeah, I mean if he didn't get it on 62 and a half I think you can still get it on 64 and a half. But as you start to push higher and higher it's like you should have been on earlier. So go play the 64 and a half now. If you absolutely have to take it up to like 69 and a half closer to game time, I think that's okay but I want to be getting plus money to do it. Like I said, I think he's going to get to 75. So you know, I go look to ladder it now. Um, what, why can't or at least play a smaller play on that 68, 69, whatever you can get and then maybe put a little sprinkle on 100 plus and see if he has a big game. All right. Fair enough. Larry coming in with the contradicting stats of Stofansky 5 and 0 in the last Thursday games but then also we haven't seen him red zone snap from this offense. So right on that is concerning. They haven't had a quarterback. This is also true. What? Yeah, there's Cooper rush was so bad that Aaron Rogers actually the only quarterback who has played worse this year. That's how bad they've been. So what? Pennix, I mean, even when Pennix was playing well, you know, maybe he was above average but that is just such a massive leap from what they've gotten.

9:13I think there was, I don't want to misquote this but I think there is a tweet from one of the stat accounts that was like the pastor rating of the Falcons offense is like 38 or something. And if you threw the ball into the ground, if you threw the ball into the ground every single play would also be the same pastor rating. Like that's what's going on. I think it would be higher if you threw the ball into the ground versus like which is just impressive. Yeah. Speaking of embarrassing situations, the AFC South, one total win across the division. We will get to at least two wins considering the Texans and Colts played each other. We're going to move on to Sunday here. Go to the 1 p.m. slate. Texans are three point favorites on the road at the Colts. Two and a half seems to be now RJ the number that most people have to get a disappointing head nod from RJ that we're now looking at three instead of two and a half here. With that said, you do like the Colts plus the three if it's out there. Yeah. I played the Colts plus three on Monday

10:15thinking that we it was going to last long and it didn't but then it bounced back. So earlier today we were we were preparing as if it was going to be three. Now it looks like it's down two and a half and I think that's because Nico Collins didn't practice Wednesday. So he seems like a little bit more of a long shot to play this week and if they don't have him on offense, I think it's going to be tough for them to cover this number considering how bad the run game has been for Houston these first two weeks. Both teams going to be missing key wide receivers if Nico's out because we know Alec Pierce is now on the injury report or on the injured list. But Indy has an elite running back to lean on while Houston, like I said, their run game has struggled. The Colts defense has looked terrible so far though. So if you don't love playing it two and a half, I would I would understand. I would say maybe tease it up at two and a half to eight and a half. But I like the plus three if you can wait and hang on and find a plus three out there in the market because I don't think Houston should be laying three in a divisional game on the road based on how they played so far. Yeah. I was looking at the Colts plus nine street games since three and two start last season. I think for Saw Skarner it is that's like not winning.

11:19He has it won in America since like 2023. 24. 24. 24. Oh my gosh. Well, all right. Anyway, Will, you do agree on the Colts plus a three here though at home. Yeah. I mean, I think I think what you have in this matchup is a low-total game at 42. It's a divisional game. The culture at home, they're desperate. I mean, they haven't won. They're oh and nine in their last nine games. And part of that is injuries. We've been filling them at quarterback of course after that hot start last year. And then part of it is, you know, they ran into a buzz saw in Baltimore. Now, I think they actually had a safety as the green dot on defense in week one against the Ravens, which oops. They they they bailed on that quickly. And then, you know, you get patch of my homes in prime time, looking sharp in week two. I think the Colts have actually played better than their record indicates. And so I think at home in a divisional matchup,

12:20if you're going to give me the three points or even the two and a half, I really do think the culture live to win. And you know, like RG said, without Nico Collins, what is this offense? Just slamming David Montgomery into the into like a medium offensive line. Working very well. Right. It's just I think you had 14 targets. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Dalton Shultz. Dalton Shultz and David Montgomery, like that's not that scary. Jonathan Taylor's looked awesome. I thought Josh Downs looked really sharp on, you know, on Sunday night. And and then like, Daniel Jones has been decent. Like they had a really, really good chance to beat the chiefs and hum with the chiefs. They think of hang with the chiefs. They can hang with the Texans. They put up 30 on a phenomenal chiefs defense. Right. I give them not to be dramatic, but I mean, that's a good place to be. But Larry, we're thinking, uh, maybe the regression to the mean is the Texans defense potentially shows up here. Yeah. I think they have a great shot without Alec Pierce. That's the field stretcher. That's the guy that scares you with the Colts. And so now you can load up on Jonathan Taylor. And on the other side, we saw how defensive minded and how feeble the Texans are offensively

13:25without Nico Collins. You know, maybe they'll kick a few field goals here. But I think when you when each team is missing their one true, you know, home run threat, you got to look under. Yeah. That's fair. I want to believe in the Texans. Like I just don't know how this, how they can't start over three again. I just don't see how that happens. But I understand the home field situation and no Nico Collins here. Let's move on to a larger spread. Jets at Detroit, Detroit length six and a half at home, which we are all big fans of that six and a half number. If you are lines back or here, higher total 47 and a half Detroit coming off a loss. This is good. 11 and one straight up 10 and two against the spread in those last 12 home games following a loss back to their dome. They go quickly. I'll start. I like the lines minus the six and a half. What I play the seven, I guess I'd be comfortable there. But to get the six and a half, if we have some early listeners, I'd act now on that. I feel like the Jets pastee has been unsustainably awesome. And the lines pastee has been unsustainably awful. And at some point, we're going to get back

14:29to a medium of the lions. And I just think their offense at home is just going to be too much here. Brinson, you're on the other side. Yeah, I think the Jets are competent this year. You know, and that's a big like we talked about it before the season. And Ken's I think you're all aren't you on the Jets wind total over like, like, I'm already 15 percent there. I don't need it this week. Right, right, 15 year-to-earth well played Jets over wind total. I just think that what you have is like this upgrade from and again, you know, we're same thing we talked about when we talk about Cooper Rush to Michael Pentax. We're talking about, you know, Justin Fields to Gino Smith. The upgrade is significant, even if it's not like, you're not, you know, you're not buying a brand new Lexus, but you're going from a Pinto to like a functional Toyota Camry, okay? I mean, that is a big upgrade and the Jets have looked decent on offense. Breast Hall and Garrett Wilson, both look like they're going to have very good seasons. And I think at six and a half, even with the Lions on those bounce back numbers, I trust the Jets to sort of come through the

15:29back door here. And Detroit is a prime let you through the back door team because that past events cannot stop anyone. And because they're so vulnerable in the back end, it's really nullified how effective Aiden Hutchinson and Alene McNeil have been up front. So I'll take the Jets and not sweat too much if they're down 10 in the fourth quarter because I think Gino will find a way to back door one. All right. A little fourth quarter situation here, Larry. Anything to add quick? I know you're on the same play. Yeah, no, I love the Jets. I got seven. I would still take them at six and a half. They should be two and a, you know, if they could convert a third in short, a fourth in short at midfield, they would have knocked off the Packers. Gino Smith going to a dome. He is excellent indoors, 70% completions, 34 TVs, 15 picks. He's also played well against the Lions when he was with the Seahawks. And they are now they're down a vantamatics. So you have your top three safeties down. They've had blown coverages, miscommunication. I think it's going to be a shootout. And I love the Jets. Okay. Listen, I hear you guys on the Swiss cheese lines defense here.

16:34Argett seems like you found a way to just capitalize on the lack there of defense. Yeah, I hear you about the Lions are going to look right at some point, but it's going to take Brian Branch Kirby Joseph coming back on the back end. Like Larry said, it's it's so bad. And the caveat is the vantamatics was not playing very well. Had safety. So maybe there a placement will be just as bad. So the thing that's a great look for them because of how many points they're giving up to these teams, complete meltdown in week one against the Saints to let them back in that game. Being so weak on the back end should make it hard to cover big numbers as a favorite. Because like Brinson said, you could rally back and get that that back door cover. And the Jets offense hasn't looked bad today. Like what like Brinson was saying. And they do have the offensive line talent to neutralize some of that past rush up front. You know, this is one of those teams that if you have a good offensive line, you should be able to do whatever you want to because if Gino has time to throw, you should be able to get it down field against this secondary. So my pick is that Jets team total over 19 and a half that's still minus one 10 at one book. 20 and a halfs are out there for every other book. I would still play 20 and a half because just a pattern, everybody's going 30 on the lines. I don't see why a solid Jets defense or Jets offense can't score 21, 24, 27,

17:38somewhere in that range. I'll passively root for you guys because of my Jets future. And I know I'll be in a phenomenal spot if I'm three now into into week three here. Let's move on. This scares me. This is the type of graphic people screenshot and say you jinx them. Seahawks, Lang seven, six and a half. We can still find on Fandall. So also another act now if you're listening to this early, but around six and a half seven at the commanders, totals 14 and a half, no Jets and Daniels here. Seems we all agree. The Seahawks are awesome and are being disrespected with this line here. And I'll start on my high horse of this is a legitimately better defense on the road. The sample sizes large enough that this isn't a coincidence or a fluke of what we've seen in the specific system, the passurating they allow is even worse on the road. The yards per carry allowed everything. This defense will swallow you when you think you have the home field of advantage. And I just don't know how we think that they're not going to beat them by like 10 points. Anyone have anything to add, Arjay? Yeah, Mario to look good taking over last week, but there's

18:40a big difference playing the Dallas defense and the Seattle defense. I just can't see Washington scoring really at all against this suffocating defense. And the offense has looked strong with true lock at quarterback. And that's really been that much of a fall off from San Darnal to a you know, is going to be an upgrade when he returns. That's why my power ratings. I just have Seattle like tied for second in the league behind the Rams right now in my power ratings with teams like the chiefs and and the bills. But you can do that with your back of quarterback. What are you going to do when the starter comes back? They're going to be my number one team when Darnal is healthy. Could be as early as this week even. So we might get extra value on this line. I just don't see what the differences between this match up and the chiefs dolphins match up where the chiefs are laying 11 11 and a half on the road. I think there should be a similar gap or at least get it like you said around that double digit number. So love six and a half. If you can still find it, it would still play the seven. Even the morale of the commanders team might be worse than the dolphins. Like the vibe of the whole team. I don't know why we're acting like they have a stronger pulse than they do. Larry quickly anything to add before we move on. Well as bad as things are for the commanders, they also lost their best remaining offensive

19:43lineman and Sam Cosme. They're facing a Seahawks defense that did not allow a 10 yard play last week. Arizona's longest play was nine yards. They only had 44 yards in the second half. They have lost 12 of their last 14. The commanders have the Seahawks have 112 straight and on the road like you talked about McKenzie, 10 and one against the number in their last 11 covering by more than a touchdown. So yes, I took it at six and a half. I would still take it at seven. Branson, quick, would you feel would you take the seven or is this a six and a half? That's why you're playing that play? No, I'm fine with the seven and might be Donald literally just sad a few minutes ago that Sam Donald would back at practice on Wednesday ramp up as the week goes on. So you have you have two factors here. One, maybe Sam Donald was back and you had that starter in place and you get a great number here if it moves. Two, if Sam Donald is not able to go, this might be Drew Locke's last time against the poorest defense to show that he should be considered for right, right. So like and I think Drew Locke is look fantastic. James S. N is on fire. To me, this is a great spot to smash

20:47the Seahawks and wouldn't be surprised if the line keeps climbing. Maybe the giant straight for Drew Locke if he was. Whoa. I don't know. I don't know. So you know, he didn't he didn't cover the World Cup. So who knows how he could fit in that locker. Tom Fernelli was like, James Winston, you mean the World Cup correspondent? Yeah, that was good. All right, let's move on here. Patriots had it down the Jacksonville Jacksonville three point home favorites over under 45 and a half. Both these teams got blown out the first half. Both these teams recover significantly. Wait, flip-flop. Jags. Yeah. Yeah. Jags, Jags, Jags, Jags, show to the second half against the Broncos. Thank you. So vice versa of each other. Nonetheless, one in one team is going into this game. Okay. We got two strong picks on either side here. R.J., make the case for the Patriots first. Yeah, Jags and the Law offense was shut down against an elite defense last week in the Patriots have a talent on defense to give them trouble as well. I know the Patriots offense hasn't looked great, but they face two strong defenses. See how it's we already covered.

21:48Steelers still strong on that side of the ball. Jacksonville doesn't have the same pass rush. That scares me. And especially we expected regression coming into the season with them on how many turnovers they got last year. I think this could be Drake Mace breakout game and kind of waiting for it to happen. And this seems like a good situation even without AJ Brown. I like the Pats to win it, but love the value one plus three. Well, that's still out there. Yeah. It may went from leading the league in pasta, rating two, 31st best right now, which is a stark, almost impressive contrast here. But I do think there is obviously wiggle room to get better here. But Larry, you're going with the home team. I'm going to lean with the Jaguars just due to the Patriots injuries. You have three defensive starters that left that game last week or did employ key guys both at linebacker and on the back end. So I want to wait and see about that. But right now just to lean. Okay. All right. We'll stick with that there. It's head to the bangles, length three and a half on the road, divisional game headed to Pittsburgh, over under 42 and a half. Now the home team won each of these meetings last year. Joe Barrow did not play in those. That

22:50is important. Joe Burrow also backed back to two and no seasons, which we for a while. Just we're talking about that Joe Burrow mess week one through four. So vibes are high for Sinci. Defense hand up. I wasn't believing in it and they have 100% proven me wrong here. Larry, you're going with that Steelers team total under because of the Sinci defense. Yeah. I mean, Dexter Lawrence has been a huge factor for a team that leads the league in SACs that did not has not given up a 10 yard running play yet this season. So this is an entirely different bangles defense. He had five guys last week who had at least four pressures against CJ Stroud. So I mean, I look at the Steelers offense. The offense has scored 16 points and TJ Watt has scored seven points so far in two games. So for them to get to 20 seems like a big ask when you don't have any consistency from the running game. You have Aaron Rogers seeming a little bit, you know, snipy toward his coach towards the play callers. I just don't like what's going on

23:53in Pittsburgh and I don't think they're all of a sudden going to put up a big number. I think I'm in lean territory. I lied and said I liked it as a pick, but I'm not convinced so much anymore. This might be a stay away for me. What I will say, getting the three and a half on the Steelers side, they just make games ugly and it was ugly. Make no mistake in Foxboro, but sometimes it's ugly as in it's a close game. It's a divisional game. That's where I would maybe lean towards that Steelers side. We got our friend in the chat. Jim is. Jim is. Jim is. Fading Rogers every week and I respect that. I'm not here to say that. Jim's been throwing out. So pretty good. Like lions to win by 13 or less is like plus one 15. I think some going hill numbers. These were thrown out the chat that I like a lot. Here's a problem with this. Like why are the, I mean, okay, one, I think that the Bingo's defense, I think Dexal Arts has been the most meaningful addition to any defense in the NFL this year. And I think it showed up

24:57through two games and I don't think it's necessarily reflected in this line yet. I don't think the Bingo's defense is getting the respect that it deserves based on the Dexter Lawrence edition. He is in terms of like adding somebody in the middle. He is as good as it gets. Non-prime iron dollar, like non-air dollar, right? And I just don't see how this Steelers team is going to rally and score any points. I trust the Bingo's to get to 21. I don't, as Larry points out, don't trust the Steelers to get to 20. And ordinarily, I think in a divisional matchup on the road catching three and a half, you would always take the dog, especially in an AMC North situation. But I just think the Bingo's defense isn't getting the proper respect that it deserves. And the Steelers offense is horrible. Rogers, he's like, you know, it starts with me because I'm not telling them what they're doing wrong. I mean, what are we doing here? And then, you have the number one receiver is DK Metcalf, who's just not a good fit with what Rogers wants to do. So I don't think this offense, it's Rico Dowdell's in a boot. This offense is a problem. The Bingo's defense is

25:58much improved. And I think since he just goes in there and takes care of business. Yeah. One thing I'll add real quick is that we see this number three and a half. And the instinct is to play the Steelers because we've seen this time. And again, play them as dogs, especially at home. This is not Mike Thalman's team anymore. If Mike Thalman was still the coach, I would be smashing plus three and a half because I would just trust him to get it done, make this game dirty and keep this game within three. It's hard to trust this offense right now. And, you know, all the points you're making are right. I want no part of this game. I would lean under, but I want no part of the spread. Yeah, they lost Tomlin and they lost the staff and they're running back to Coach left too. And he was, I think, a lot of the six, like their running game is awful right now. All right. Yeah. I guess I'm convinced that the Bingo's my three and a half stay away from me, but we move on. Titans at Giants, brutal Sunday night, or Monday night, excuse me, for the Giants, losing Jackson, dark for the season. Just even though there are divisional rival of my team, the Philadelphia Eagles, it's just a bummer. Just a bummer to see this whole week has been a bummer with these quarterback injuries and beyond just quarterbacks as well. And nonetheless,

26:59two and a half point favorites at home, low total, 39 and a half. Larry, I just think in the Titans. I mean, it's a revenge narrative. So you probably should start with Will with Brian Daybomb. I took the field goal, you know, with the Titans. This is a team that, you know, could have beaten your Eagles. Probably should have beaten your Eagles. They held the Eagles running game to under three yards of carry. I know Seikwang was out, but they actually dominated that Eagles offensive wine. And I just think, you know, Jamis, if you watch that interception that Trent McDuffy will not never have an easier pick than that. You know, that was like six yards under throne with nothing on it. You know, maybe this is the end of the line for Jamis. I don't know if he's going to recreate what we saw, you know, a couple of years ago when he was slinging it all over the place and making big plays. I just don't think that Giants are going to have that success running the ball. Then what about, you know, the left tackle might be hurt. Brian Burns might be out. Malik neighbors dealing with the shoulder injury. So it's not just Jackson, dark.

28:02Brence, did anything to add on that same pick? Yeah, I mean, I think like the, the, the litany of injuries. I mean, the dark injuries going to take the headlines, of course. When you're talking about Andrew Thomas left the game, you know, Malik neighbors left the game and it was shocking that he came back because he didn't do a whole lot. And then you have Brian Burns, you're like, all of a sudden you have their, like, when you, when you're building a team, you want to have an elite left tackle, you want to have a left tackle, a pass rush, a quarterback. And then like fifth on that list is a top tier wide receiver. Well, four of the Giants five guys, key, those key positions are all injured or banged up. This is a really tough spot on a short week. Brian David would like to show off the opportunity. We've got a flash of offense against his Giants D and remind them that they made a mistake. So yeah, give me the revenge with the Titans. I would obviously much prefer the three. This feels like somebody wins an elite field role. But I think the Titans are at least a little, getting a little frisky or a little tougher on defense and maybe a little better on offense against bad defenses. Yeah, this line moved down four full points at least. RJ, correct me if I'm wrong here,

29:05but you feel like that was appropriate? Yeah, I can check the look ahead, but I do think it was either six or six and a half. Yeah, Tennessee looked much better in a tougher matchup last week, you know, with the Eagles. But remember that they had a very long interception return, right? So that turned at least three points to the Eagles, maybe seven into a short touchdown try for the Titans, made that game tighter than it probably should have been by the time we got to the end of that game. But, you know, so you can discount them for having that long interception return. Well, you know, who's going to give them opportunities to have long interception returns is James Winston. You know, I saw him throw a deep ball, a couple deep balls in that game on Monday. And oh my god, like, you know, I'm sure these defenders for the Titans are licking their lips for this matchup. So hard to lay points with the Giants with his volatility if I'm playing it. I'm playing the Titans and looking for a three. Yeah, fair enough. Let's move on to the chargers, the sweet sweet chargers headed to Buffalo Buffalo Lang seven and their new stadium here. We all seem to be on the same side again. Two leans, two likes to pick. I'll start here me and Brinson, both happy to lay

30:07the seven with the bills. And I understand the lean part because that, you know, again, regression to the mean, the chargers can't be this bad. They're allowing 108 passer-rating to Kurt Cousinson for set. And it's like, I got news for you. MVP's coming to town. You're actually in his house. So I just don't even know how this defense can stop this offense. I don't know how this offense of the chargers can put up points. I think they've put up 50 points total. And their last five games, I don't think they cracked 16 points in a game since December 8th outside of one game versus Dallas. It was like, McDaniels is not able to fix this offense because he doesn't have the assets that he needs, which requires fast receivers. And the lad might be the only one, but like, he's just always getting hospital balls. I was talking about this. It just never looks good for lad. So I've convinced myself that it is the truth. The chargers are a bad football team. The bills are a good football team. Do you agree, Vince Brinson? Yeah, I mean, unless I forget that the chargers who, you know, so I think with the chargers,

31:10you got two things. I mean, you got a lot of things going on here. But like specifically, two schematic adjustment things. I mean, yes, there's some continuity in terms of the defensive coordinator. But Jesse Mitchell leaving is clearly an issue. And then on the other side of the ball, you go from a Greg Roman offense to a Mike Lee Daniel offense. And that's a big, big difference. Now you lose your two tight ends, right? They've lost their two tight ends. So they're going to down the lake just around the Gadson to catch balls. Quentin Johnson is dropping everything. The placement for lad in, you mentioned the hospital balls, not great. And even if Justin, like the Justin Herbert defenders are talking about how, you know, he's getting these drops and everything. Well, why are those drops going to suddenly stop? Why is the pressure suddenly going to stop? I think the bills pass rush with a lot better. And they get 10 days of rest too because they played on Thursday. So the chargers are more banged up. The bills are healthier and rested. And they're hosting the chargers. This to me feels like a spot where the bills, just like they did against the Lions 10 days ago are going to want to flex their offense and show people that they

32:11could score as many points as they need to because they don't entirely trust their defense. Huge game from Josh Allen. And I just, I don't like, yeah, I mean, it's the NFL. The chargers could go into Buffalo and backdoor the seven wouldn't be shocking. But I don't see how you can back the chargers in the spot knowing the schedule they have coming up, knowing all the injuries and knowing how good the bills have been. Yeah, it's just hard to make a case for the other side here. Let's move on. We got two more 1 p.m. Slake games to go through. Chiefs headed down to Miami, laying 11 and a half on the road. That's a disgustingly large number here. It doesn't seem like anybody's in the mood to take it. We got some Larry's leaning the chiefs. Well, you're leaning the chiefs. I think the way to play this is the first quarter. Now, I almost went chiefs to cover in the first quarter, but it's three and a half. I didn't like the three and a half. I was hoping it would be three. So I looked at the total and the total is nine and a half. The idea is that the chiefs will be scoring the touchdown in the first quarter. And maybe we get a feel go from either side on top of that. But for whatever reason, if this is one of those funky, let down weird situations, it

33:15requires my homes come back in the second half. I'm not saying that's the case, but going for the total instead of the spread, I feel like I'm buying myself the insurance of this could be a few different game scripts to get there. But it doesn't seem like anybody's really loving laying such a large number here. RJ may be playing the team total for the dolphins is better. Yeah, and to your point, if the dolphins offense is going to look at it, it's probably going to come early in the game on scripted plays. So maybe they go out there and get you a feel go on a successful first drive and help you to get over that number. I would lean under the dolphins team total of 16 and a half. I can get it at even odds. Maybe even a little bit better. This is a huge number on the spread for a road game in a place with a good home field advantage, traditionally, especially early in the season where the heat gets to teams. So we'll see that. So I wanted to love the dolphins here, but I am not making the mistake of backing them again after taking them last week and they just did not show up. So I think they're going to have trouble scoring points against good defenses. I think the chiefs have a good defense and the chiefs can limit possessions with their run game as well. So the dolphins might lose a possession or two that you might expect trying to get to 17 points. So I think the way to play this game is to take the dolphins team total under and hope that you really don't

34:19even have to sweat once you get to the second half. Right. So two ways to play that game outside of laying that large number for you guys. Let's go to the Panthers. Two and a half point favorites on the road in Cleveland. We saw the Revenge narrative. Brinson didn't go bakers way. I know you love to feed into that one over under 42 here. Now that's on a picks from the team here. A lot of leans, but Larry, you're feeling confident on the Panthers. Yeah, I just love how aggressive they're being offensively even in a game they were dominating against the Falcons and they weren't even threatened by the Falcons offense. They kept throwing the ball. You know, they drop back almost 40 times and that's what they're going to do all season. It looks like which makes sense. You have Tatmuk Melan, you have Coke or now you have Darren Waller as a nice red zone target and you have Bryce, Bryce Young throwing for 650 yards. So already tied for the league lead and touchdowns and I wasn't so impressed with the Browns defense. I think a lot of that was the Bucks making mistakes. You know, Baker missing guys who were wide open, guys dropping passes that should have been touchdowns.

35:20So I don't think the Browns defense is all of a sudden very solid. So I'm just going to play this straight. I think both teams are going to have offensive success and I'll look for Carolina to get to around 24 points. Yeah, fair. And it looks like RJ you're leaning to that over to Brinson. I know you're on the other side with the lean. You just want to make a case for the Browns in case we have some Cleveland fans here. Yeah, I mean, look, I just don't to Larry's point, I am I am curious what happens when the Panthers go on the road and play a team that might want to bother a little bit because I think Dave Canalis wants to run the football. Now Jonathan Brooks is on IR. It looks like he could miss the rest of the season. That's a that sucks because he's had like 30 carries since he was a sophomore in high school. You know, I I just I don't I just I just don't know if I trust Dave Canalis to be that aggressive passing first. If the if that is who the Panthers are, then this is going to be a dangerous team all year because they have a good offense. If that interior offensive line is healthy, Bryce Young is playing some awesome football.

36:23Like the Bryce Young we saw is right here is not this should be wiped from the memories because he is a different quarterback now. Jaley Cochran, Teppin Millen on the outside are excellent. I just worry a little bit as the Panthers are short favorites. Go on on the road against a team that might muddle it up and all of a sudden both teams are running the football a lot and Cleveland steals one. And I'm curious like maybe to show Watson in boot after all. I wouldn't be the Panthers who wouldn't be the Browns to win by 22 plus though as the dude wipe skies are trying to get you to. Yeah, no, that's fair. Curious if this Watson home field advantage maybe after one more win starts to turn around into his favorite here. We have made it to the 4p slate Vikings 2 and O star 2 and O in the division start. Give it to them there. We should get Kyler set to return from his concussion for this game. Essentially a pick them down in Tampa Bay 42 and a half is the total here. I got a prop and I'm going to give that out the end here but RJ start with the the bucks as the slate home underdog. Yeah, we are getting Kyler back in this game. That might not be a

37:27good thing for the specific game because quarterbacks coming right from concussions tend to struggle in their first game back and there's going to be a lot put on his plate because Aaron Jones did not practice on Wednesday. They gave him 20 plus carries and that week to ugly rain game. You cannot give Aaron Jones 20 plus carries at this point of his career. Or you're going to break him and it looks like that's what might have happened. So get ready to see some DJ Dallas and the Montclave Board running back for the Vikings even if Jones can play because they just can't lean on him that much. So it's going to all come down to Kyler and maybe he gets it done with Justin Jefferson. We know how talented that guy is. I just think the spot screams the buck in the ears at plus one and a half. This would have been favored preseason a couple of weeks ago but the bucks coming off that very ugly loss to the Browns did not play as bad. I think as people realize in week one just a lot of fumbles. That's something that you don't expect to repeat game to game and we know how good we think the bangles are right now. So they went on the road and played a pretty solid game against what we think is a pretty good bangles team. And we don't know what this Minnesota offense is going to be.

38:28So I like fading the quarterback first game back from concussion. I think the buck in ears offensive lines going to hold its own against Brian Flores who has just been feasting I think like 70 plus percent blitz raid on both teams. But this is a stronger offensive line not having the injury issues that some of the other teams they have played have had. So I like the buck in ears to win this game. I am taking them plus one and a half thinking about them as a teaser leg is the way to go. I snuck a bigger may feel player prop in here over 16 and a half rushing yards. I had similar logic to the Patrick Mahomes one last week that cashed. He moves. I mean the past five games 29 yards 39 yards 31 yards 16 and 49. So there's one 16 that's a outlier. Also with this pass rush, he could just be running for his life. Close game like I just this seems like an oversight quite honestly from odds makers here. That's a number I'm willing to play just based off his past five and that sample size and just this season alone averaging what 30 like I'm in on that. Brinson other side for you here. Yeah and maybe this is me being bitter and stupid and like

39:35but I watch I watch I watch every snap of that horrible football game and I watch every snap of the the box in week one against the bingo. So I thought they were going to beat the bingo's. They stink like their defense is terrible. A Todd Vols should be the prohibitive favorite to be first coach fire received the bucket years and that ownership fire coaches in the middle of the season all the time. You know this is an offensive is they're not in sync. Baker air mailing everybody even before the bad weather. You know fumble three times in in week one and defensively they are just doing stuff that is allowing your opponents to get whatever they want. Like just all lots of played better in week two but it was a large a large portion of that was the bucket years being terrible in defense. So yeah I mean like I get what RJ saying and I agree that if he the offensive like and hold up. Tampa can go win this game but they have to fix a lot of things on offense and a lot of things on defense after an embarrassing loss in week two they got to fix

40:36them all quickly and I think there's a huge huge coaching advantage for the Vikings here. So I will lay it with the Vikings but I get the you know it's a good time to take the box when nobody wants to hang. Right yeah just a lot of self-inflicted wounds from the box so it's your decision of can that keep happening or is there there another side of that here. We move. I was just jumping in because every single trend you look at when you talk about a fortunate two and O team like the Vikings and unlucky O and two team you know every single trend points in the buck's direction the desperation etc however like Will said when you look at the coaching stats that's why I just cannot pull the trigger. Okay fair enough so a little bit more of a lean here towards the Minnesota side and just the better coaching in general. The Cardinals go into San Francisco nine years laying eight and a half over under 48 so a little bit on the higher end here Larry you do like the dog in this. Yeah I just think a little bit inflated for the 49ers you know they had two blowout wins so far one in Australia and then one over the dolphins

41:42which is not really an NFL team at the moment and the Cardinals you know they they were tied at half time and they ran into the best defense in football. I think it's going to be a lot easier against the 49ers for Jacobivers set to move the ball you also have the 49ers losing yet another receiver belief they signed branding cooks now off the street so they're just not very deep and I just don't think they should be laying this big of a number I think the 49ers win but probably by a touchdown. Yeah for what it's worth percent last year set an NFL regular season record with 47 completions versus the 9ers a week 11 so maybe you know there's a confidence boost to this game here but Bryns and you're not convinced. Yeah I think the 49ers I mean clearly the injuries for the 49ers are often so are well documented like it's a problem they're gonna have to get to the end of the season with healthy guys and why receiver but George Kiddles fully healthy and looks awesome. Christopher Caffrey fully healthy and looks awesome you know they can make do with what

42:44they've got and then defensively I think the 49ers in the Bengals are the two teams that people are sleeping on as elite defensive squads in the NFL this year the 49ers have I mean you saw them against the Rams and you saw them last week they let my enemy move the ball a little bit but just absolutely like like stifled them so yeah I mean you can't be percent always live for back to a cover but I think the 49ers are sort of being undervalued defensively still right now and can kind and can name their number if they come out and play an elite defensive game. Right definitely going to be a popular fantasy pick for people who did not use the 9ers last week we moved to Rio a very high total in Rio Ravens R-Lang 3.5 technically the Cowboys are the home team here 52.5 is the total in Brazil which feels oddly high for an international game seems like we got leans seems like we got some props Larry I'll start with you and Mr. Derek Henry. Yeah the Ravens got away from Derek Henry in the second half and it's a big reason why they lost at home to the

43:45Saints he had 11 for 51 in the first half only got five carries in the second half so I think this is a game where they go back to him and give him the rock you know probably 20 times 88.5 against a very beatable Dallas run defense that's given up about 170 rushing yards per game I just like this angle I think they're going to stick with it even if it doesn't pay off right away I think they stick with Derek Henry. Yeah I mean doesn't feel like there's a lot of passing options right now in the moment but that is a very high total but Brinson you do think they can they can squeak over this. Yeah and like we've got to be fully transparent it didn't say Brazil the run down and then as we started talking about it I remembered that the field there was there's been I don't know did you guys see the talk about the field conditions. Is it soccer us because it's slippery or is it like what is it. So soccer players were saying that this field is unplayable and so they

44:46like fix it after the international break. So I'm all worried about that I would I would I would I would tack this on as a lead in the over because I think both teams can score and they have both came to score in different ways but like you've got to be really careful because we don't we just have no clue what the field conditions are like and if you get down there and see the lamp slip and fall in on slants you know or can't get down field and like that and that changes the you know through I think for the Ravens if the field condition is terrible they're in much better shape to pound the ball with Derek Henry and just unleash him whereas if the Cowboys you get down there and like you really can't operate in this field the way that you want to it it neuters them a lot more in this matchup so like I don't know man I mean I saw some people who were like live in Brazil you're tweeting about me like just don't bet on this game don't like don't touch this game because you're just not going to know what what the scoring and what the offense is going to look like until you see that field condition so I think I mean I know I had over in there I think it's kind of

45:49state yeah I think it's maybe a live bet like if the team said if you get down there and they're moving it quick or maybe like the defenders are struggling because the field conditions maybe looked at the over you know I do think it's one where let's say the field is terrible and the Ravens jump out to a lead the Cowboys have to throw a bunch maybe take a Ravens on a bigger number live too like I think I think the new national games are just tricky when you don't know what the field's going to be like yeah maybe RJ this is like I mean hey running bags maybe running back receiving yards looking for short passes maybe it's kicker props like any prop market you're interested in the other player picker props not knowing how that field is going to look because who knows if I was you know it's three and a half now everywhere I was okay playing the Ravens at three and it's more of a stay away just three and a half so hard number to play when you have all these question marks including Will's age flowers play but I do think the one thing that the Ravens can do is what Larry likes with his pick so yeah I was gonna play one prop I'd play the profit Larry's gonna give out here okay yeah maybe we just stick to what we know with this game yeah yeah I feel like this is just a measuring stick game obviously it's not like crazy playoff

46:52implications not being a conference game but ironically these are two teams that really invested in their defenses this past offseason and we haven't really seen it come to life yet with Baltimore under the Jesse Minter moment and we haven't really seen it come to life with the Cowboys I know they only allow 20 to the commanders but it really should have been 24 and also it is the commander so interested to see if either of these defenses finally click it's hard to believe that will happen in Brazil of all places if it can't happen on their own home fields but I digress should be a good spectacle either way real quick Larry what's your pick did you give that out yeah Derek Henry yeah I could fully miss that I was I wanted to ask you because I want to come back to it how much would you ladder that up to just knowing what we're saying about yeah oh um you know what I generally don't play a lot of ladders so you know I will leave that to people that do that well I mean I think Larry I mean I'm like trying to find and see what like 150 is and I know that's a huge number on top of the 88 but like but no but I mean let's consider

47:55a couple things one it's Derek Henry he can go for 150 in a couple of times in any point in time to again bad field condition maybe they at both teams are forced to lean into the run and do that three I think there is a big time factor when it comes to Jesse Minter first time coach got absolute destroyed in the media and by fans this week because they didn't like keep running Derek Henry it's some out there's no rushing props available where I'm looking but so yeah like I mean I think I think you can I think you can look to take Derek Henry pretty high in this spot knowing that the one thing no matter what the conditions are whether wise or field wise is that Derek Henry can get downhill against somebody if they feed and he'll get those numbers yeah it doesn't feel like there's many game scripts where he isn't heavily involved whether like all versions of the story I like that a lot let's move on last 4 p.m. game 4 p.m. slate game Raiders down in New Orleans

48:57New Orleans three-point home favorites totals 44 the Raiders doing the thing it doesn't seem like any of us are buying in RJ care to explain yeah I'm a bigger believer in the Saints and the Raiders but the Raiders are getting Brock Barbers back while the Saints lost their left tackle so it's just a lean for me Vegas might have the coaching edge I think clank hubiaks probably in the driver's seat for coach of the year if you don't want to give it to Jesse Minter just looking at how the state of that Chargers defense is this year I might retroactively just say Jesse Minter's the best coach in the world based on based on what they're missing there but with how well Kubiaks done out the gate you know I'll make this line 4 and a half on my rating so if I was going to play something and be the Saints but those mitigating factors mean I'll probably stay on the way yeah I'm comfortable laying it with the Saints here at home we're calling me TN HN whatever the situation you you wanted to be he's got to like have a great game soon I know I keep like I just feel like he has to why and Vegas because it's just a good like running back at the end of the day you can't

49:59have two games like that and then a third that doesn't look good I mean I'm with you like he should but he's not getting the usage I think I'm going to get my album Camaro like 14 or 15 maybe 16 total touches last week for 15 yards I don't know what it is about HN but I mean he has much guaranteed money as Kenneth Walker did this offseason and the usage is polar opposite I like the Saints in the second half I think what we've seen from Kalamore and what they're doing in the second half is and I'm going to the Raiders have to score early to make this situation but like the Saints have we're down just 13 to 3 and half I think against Ravens they're like you know what screw it Tyler Schuck over it up and they've been doing that they've done that in two straight games over the season the second half I think it's entirely possible we see the Saints be a little conservative in the first half come out in the second half the minus one and a half in the second half and just scoring the second half so I like what I've seen from them the second half I'll take that blind second half that regardless like without knowing what the first half score is yeah maybe maybe wait till they're down and maybe it's a live money line like maybe just some version of

51:03if you see the Saints team get down maybe take them live could be one of our other good live betting games here all right I like that you know Dan losing weight can feel a lot like getting so close to the end zone and then losing the ball right before you cross the line winning the game is great but maintaining that success season after season that's for the real challenge lies that's right so say noom the leading behavior change company pairs GLP won medication with behavior tools bite size daily lessons and coaching to help you build sustainable habits it's like having a full coaching staff to help you lose weight and keep it off even if you stop the meds the new m GLP one program starts at thirty nine dollars and medication can be delivered to your door in as little as seven days get a real game plan for lasting success start your GLP one journey today at newm dot com that's n o o m dot com new lose for keeps initial one month subscription from thirty nine dollars plus tax and then and dollars plus tax per month thereafter cost of medication not included final pricing depends upon program selection Sunday night football

52:03we got a good NFC versus aFC showdown here Broncos back on prime time Rams length two and a half on the road headed to Denver both teams won in week two after losing twenty plus and week one that was the situation I was looking for when I was talking patriots jacks but here peers what I was actually thinking about two and a half on the road I don't know if I'm bought in on this ramp situation necessarily brinston do you you feel comfortable with the two and a half oh yeah I mean the Rams are rams are fine I mean you did that like Charlotte Schumman Bay when this is what does he see he did he put a castanza and he he walked off he walked off on his press conference going you know what sometimes your dumbass coach makes a mistake with the timing and you go down there and you get a pliterate sometimes you win sometimes you lose sometimes that happens I think the Rams and I know that the Giants I think the Broncos defense will offer more resistance than the Giants but I think the Rams got back to America got settled in got home in

53:05prime time and really they showed us what they are if they get puking a coup of back to huge bonus obviously Blake Korn McCirey Williams both look fantastic and that defense you know I think you saw what they could really be it particularly throughout the entire game against the Giants so like I think you're getting a little bit of a discount because people aren't fully bought back into the Rams completely yet so well what would you play I mean how high would have to be if you did not play the Rams in this match up three and a half four I wouldn't I don't think I'm going to play him a three and a half but I mean like you know two and a half you learn two and a half at the Broncos yeah louder louder the Rams up to nine and a half I just I think yeah sorry I asked because we think that puking a coup might come back right and this line is just waiting for him to come back I feel it's going to get to three if he is ruled in and maybe people push it forward you know to say think about what the Broncos did in week one against another very good team on both sides of the ball and just did not show up in that game so even it being at home you know this could be a super ball

54:07preview so I wouldn't lay the three I wouldn't lay three and a half I'm kind of waiting for three to see if I could play the Broncos at that point because I think they'll do a better job of defending the past than the Giants certainly did so we'll see if pukka comes back I think if he does this line or even if it trends positively toward him like practicing limited fashion it'll start to go up to three and that's when you want to look at taking the Broncos because you know they're just such a jecol and height team right the Broncos you never know which offense is going to show up the good one showed up in the second half against a solid Jaguars defense last week pushing the ball down field maybe Davis Webb got out of his head a little bit we know he really struggled in that week one you can see shots of Sean Peyton on the sideline just looking like what do we do here what I have to give this knucklehead the play calling duties I would be so much better right now but it all came together right in in week two and now they look like they're on the right track so two very good teams I just think this is a lot of point to lay with what I think it's still one of the contenders in the AFC so I'm hoping for the three I will play it at the three but it's interesting if you would play it you know even further past the three if pukka comes back yeah I

55:10don't think I mean I don't think the Rams are going to go there and beat him by 30 I think that's fairly unlikely they did a good job of getting jail in a lot of much more involved after that week one debacle but I mean every single every single running back on the Broncos depth chart I believe is listed with some kind of injury jota Coleman popped up today you know JK dovans deal with cramps and rj harvies still battling back so you don't have a whole lot in that run game and if you're going to talk about a quarterback who is equipped to dismantle an elite defense yeah I think I think Matthew Stafford absolutely qualifies and eradana looked great in his return against the giants but that was the giants you know he had three tackles a tackle for loss over 30 snaps played he drew a lot of double teams but now you're going to altitude against a much better offensive line so let's see the impact that he can have but it's definitely tantalizing when you think about miles Garrett coming back to join eradana yeah that will be terrifying I don't know how much stock I want to buy into beating up on with james winston but but I respect and understand the feeling there

56:13Monday night football injury galore will we are really not see Caleb say quan gotter just brutal spot the Eagles I mean they continue to just get it done in an ugly way funky spread I'd call it for and a half they're laying at chicago 41 and a half is the total so thinking low scoring here um brinston you're not scared of the Eagles this week it seems I don't like the Eagles in general in terms of being a team that's going to go out I think going out and cover four and a half points on the road and prime time is a tough ask for a team offensively that is there hasn't like doesn't look like they were going to take that flip flop season and and become explosive obviously no a j brown Dallas gotter now out they're bringing Zach Erick's back in but I can Tyler Baygett is hurt too I mean this Eagles defense is very good this Eagles defense is very good and they're going to be hyped up for prime time if Caleb limbs is playing in this game it's a whole different ball game if case key to messed to go out there and playing

57:16against his Eagles defense I know been johnson's a genius I get that I think the bear I think bears would find once he get Caleb back but with the the personnel and offense that the that the bears have the guy throwing it to him and the way that the Eagles can stifle you on defense the bears in ability to really stop anybody on defense I think this feels like Philly 24 bears 14 maybe bears 10 something like that where the Eagles comfortably win without like a blowout but it's not gonna be a pretty game. Yeah I think that to that point like the not pretty part makes me not want to take the Eagles minus the four and a half what I will say to support you like losing your starting quarterback obviously is a brutal spot to be but Caleb like being as mobile as he showed he could be in week one and like that makes your running back better and that makes your past completion percentage better like the rippling effects of Caleb using his legs outside of his literal rushing yards is so much larger than than just that so I think that's what the

58:18struggle for this Chicago Bears team is going to be Larry do you just want to make a we do have Dylan in the chat a bear span you want to make the case for him for why the bears could cover. Well the Eagles are it's kind of incredible there too and no they haven't forced to turn over yet and then can't run the ball right now they average less than three yards of carry against Tennessee you know losing Dickerson they shifted the o-line they put Drew Kendall at center camdurgens at guard it didn't work out in Tennessee but they got away with the win I just I can't lay points you know definitely over four with this kind of an offense right now no matter who's playing quarterback on the other side unless it was like Cooper Rush. Mm-hmm yeah that's fair I do hope this is a a good Monday night football prime time game both of these offenses are capable of looking so ugly what are you shaking your head up for instance. I mean Eagle like the Eagles defense against case kingdom and how the Eagles want to operate on offense it's not going to be a good Monday night game like it's if Caleb's in there this is a great game but no Caleb maybe you don't have case

59:18kingdom. I just don't I think that this is the Eagles running like operating on long drives just grinding this game out and then you're forcing case kingdom to make some magic happen like if the Eagles get up 14 nothing I think this turns into like 21-3 yeah that's fair it is definitely one of the possible outcomes of this Monday night football game just I would love to see the Eagles just make me feel a lot better about the wins I mean there's nothing more class like an Eagles fan base being upset with case game is 38 is that right you 38 come on. It's true. It's true look they haven't played since 2023 either it's his first nap in three years so good luck with that if you have the bears it might not be a good game but it's going to be interesting to watch see him play against this defense you know we got it at three when the positive news of Caleb came out you know I four and a half I'm still leaning the Eagles remember this team was favored by seven at Tennessee last week is this bears team as good as Tennessee with case kingdom at quarterback

1:00:21we know that defense got lit up by Bryce Young in week once looks a little bit better but again the Falcons not a great defense either so if they can give up points here in this situation which I think they can I don't know how case kingdom brings them back especially if Eagles get even six points outside the number how their bears gonna cover I think so I would lean to the Eagles I think it's going to be a strong game for them and they could just shut shut down the offense of Chicago and Fick P and Joe's going to get in his bag and have a great game yeah I think the only pro bear situation I would say is maybe looking to those running back props because even if it is Caleb Williams it's probably a more reserved Caleb Williams and maybe you're looking at is that is that on the is that on the is that on the table for money Caleb Williams playing I mean I know he's not ruled out I think I think it's yeah there was some situation but before they talked to Ben Johnson there was some situation where it was like he had quite been ruled out you know there's actually a chance he could play and then Ben Johnson called him week to week and that's when everybody assumed okay week to week means you're not playing this week so who knows

1:01:24it's a Monday night game he gets one extra day maybe he's able to get in a practice Friday or Saturday gets limited practice at least and is questionable goes out there sees how he feels on Monday so not completely going to rule him out especially let them let the Eagles know whether they have to prepare for Caleb Williams or prepare for Ks Keenum with Tyson Beijing of course dealing with his injury yeah I think it's probably just wait until they have to give a decision but nonetheless maybe we're benefiting on the spread here with that all right that covers all the game picks here we got a ton of game picks let's move on to some more high level looking at the slate as a whole you've been talking about teasers every week RJ just some suggestions and who's looking like the most palatable teasers yeah so just as a reminder we're looking to tease a few specific numbers because we want to go through teaser alley and get the key numbers of three four six and seven only tease teams so you're looking to tease underdogs of um one and a half two two and a half that's going to push the number up to seven and a half eight eight and a half or the you know reverse way you tease favorites of seven and a half eight and eight and a half down to get them

1:02:25under three so we have six total teasable numbers here we have the 49ers you can get down to minus two and a half Titans you can get up the plus eight and a half the bucks you can get up the plus seven and a half the browns up the plus eight and a half the broncos up the plus eight and a half and the Colts up the plus eight and a half so if you want to tease you're probably looking at one of these underdogs at least and putting them in with the 49ers who I think is probably the best teaser with how they've looked uh to go ahead and win that game by three so take them figure out which second team you like with the low total in that Titans Giants game we were talking about I probably like that most as a second leg because those eight and a half points become very valuable if it's not going to be a game that's expected to get to 40 points so um I would play that as my second leg I think Tampa is okay we talked about the spot there and I'm actually fine with the other three too so you know go nuts with the teasers this week there's some weeks where I just don't believe in a team at all so I don't even want to tease them but I think all of these options are pretty fine yeah I like that I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get into the teaser game this week it's typically not my blood but I like that you feel confident about this week specifically uh

1:03:28Brinson any teaser thoughts I know it's something you dabble in as well yeah I mean I do that um I think when I do my I knew my box might as 2 and a half teaser language damn last week when I was like that's my best battle like damn it um but I'll kidding aside I think I think Tampa Bay and Cleveland in particular are pretty good looks um RJ mentioned you know Kyle are coming back from concussion they probably it's not gonna be full speed ahead you know you know you have changed teams in the offseason and Cleveland at home against a you know a panther's team that has looked really good but probably shouldn't be favored by a fuel goal on the road I think those two big dogs but I do agree that you know San Francisco finds a way to like get it done if anything it's like a backdoor spot for um for for the car goes mm-hmm all right that's the teasers let's move on to survivor where I picked the chargers last week after like I'm the chargers biggest op so that was crazy of me like I've been the one through the summer I'm like I don't like this team but then I dislike them so much I want to get them off my plate and um that didn't work out I now have to eat

1:04:32duck heart on Sunday on NFL today plus that is my punishment and I also have to wear a Florida Gators jersey doing such um for those who know I made Georgia Bulldog alum so that's the punishment but um this game I'm just gonna keep throwing out picks here you guys are all in the chiefs I'm gonna go New Orleans I just feel like if if you're actually generally in a strategy we're trying to knock people off I know it's a little bit of a bold play here but the chiefs are someone I'd like to save four down the stretch um obviously a good pick though RJ give us the chief side yeah I was also knocked at I had the bucks I had the the chargers and some pools I didn't go with the chalk like I should have with the 49ers and and the teams that they got scared of Australia yeah but coming back after a week we shouldn't have been that scared you know because they looked good after a week in Australia they were gonna look fine after a week back so um you know that should have been the play the people who got through typically had the 49ers as the chalk this week so they're probably gonna have the chiefs again that's gonna be the safe play um we know that everybody's gonna attack Miami all year it looks like with how bad Miami has looked

1:05:34so I'm fine with doing that um and I've pushed since I don't see great pivots I think Seattle is a pretty good pivot they just have you know a lot of good matchups down the road too um they're not gonna have a lot of equity here with back of quarterbacks still expect expect to be playing at being on the road um but you know just roll with any good team against Miami is fine the thing is though now it is starting to get the nitty gritty with some of these you know 65% 70% out in some pools because of what happened these first two weeks you do have to find ways to get different because maybe you're gonna be able to get a card together that's gonna have you win even before the end of the season here so um look for these situations where you can find some solid pivot points um you know if you're gonna trail the chiefs here make sure you're not tailing consensus every week yeah Larry anything that on the chiefs pick here if you're looking at the outlook of the season yeah I mean I'm also in a bad place uh in terms of survivor uh I'm just down bad but I do have you know an entry left in circus survivor and we'll be putting it on the chiefs uh you know and if I go down against the dolphins you know so be it yeah that's one you can sleep at night

1:06:36you know like that is what it is that is what it is sometimes you just can't overthink it here uh by the way I was just gonna say um I'm out of survivor too but I want to note that that Ken's you just in back to back sentences said I have to eat duck cart in a gator's jersey I'm going with the saints so beware just beware beware the autumn wind and the raiders roll again wow yeah that's fine by duck carts duck cart duck duck duck duck duck duck it's like marinated and something that doesn't make it the other option like do you want to eat who came up with duck cart the NFL today producer is like your guys whoever loses they're probably gonna have to eat something gross I think the other is a very great it's a very great one it's a very good thing north florida south Georgia type of meal duck cart you need squirrel squirrel would be good too I just got the actual chills squirrel tastes like chicken it's fine I know a lot of them like if I just didn't know what I was eating I'm sure a lot of them taste

1:07:37sufficiently normal just like a normal chicken or protein but it's the concept um but you know it that's a Sunday problem not a right now problem what do we do want to do right now get into our best bets here now we didn't pick any Thursday night football in this but let's take a quick look at how we did last week listen the only way up the only way is up for me hopefully oh and two starts the season right on but we do see Larry see one through the hoop we have a two and oh start from RJ with the Steelers team told him under 17 to half was a no sweater Claudia does not hit the teaser as Brinson mentioned in the box and the Baker may feel narrative didn't come home for Brinson here Brinson are we going with narratives who are best bet for week three or we just going with our head uh we are not well we're going to go with some some pretty basic math here by the way Baker had a chance with the ball to go over the 24 and a half to win the game to save survivor to take the narrative home thanks a lot Baker we're going to go with the Eagles so the let's say Caleb Williams didn't play I think the Eagles

1:08:37can score 21 points against this Bears defense I think that is very reasonable and not too big of an ask whatsoever in order to not cover the Eagles have to give up 17 points to a banged up Tyler Baygent a single hamstring Caleb Williams I really don't think it's going to play or a 38 year old case kingdom you know it's going to be ugly it's not going to be pretty but the the Bears are going to the Bears are not going to score 17 the Eagles are going to come fine fine I mean I'm not going to complain I like that you have optimism in my team you know and I don't the team I have the most optimism in is the Seahawks we talked about it earlier it's just even the futures markets why they're not the shortest outs to win the Super Bowl is beyond me this team on the road I literally like more than I like them at home here again going up up up against a backup too this is again the six and a half is going to cost you a little bit more at the minus 122 you can play the seven and if you feel safer with that I do think they can cover seven but I rather take the six and a half going to pass the Larry though because Larry I know you like this too I'm on this

1:09:41as well Ken sir just a machine on the road and not giving up any past place of 10 yards last week to Jacobi Ber set now they're taking on Marcus Mariotta potentially playing without two of his starting offensive lineman and that doesn't even include the fact that they lost Jeremy Tunsell they're left tackle before the season so I just love the Seahawks defense to put the clamps on a weather is drew lock or Sam Donald JSN is going to feast on this commander secondary yeah I couldn't agree more RJ you want to bring us home yeah team totals have been good to me the first two weeks so I'm going to with them but I'm going to the script and take an over and that's the Jets team total over 19 and a half that lines defense hasn't given us any reason to believe at them at all and now they're even more banged up on the back end while the Jets can block up front and give Geno Smith time to hit those guys at an Imitra looking pretty solid as a receiver well so we know what he can do Ken Yassadeek had a good week one so even with the injuries they have to O Mark Cooper Mason Taylor they still have enough weapons to get this done and then

1:10:42leading on Breeze Hall in the run game in Braille and Alan as at his moments too so last week they scored 17 it was rainy conditions that whole game now they're indoors where these guys that just mentioned can shine so I don't see how they don't get to 20 points in this matchup so Jets team total over 19 and a half is going to be my best bet this week I don't know if you want to hear this or not but I feel like that's kind of a Ken's play just taking a lesser team and believing in their offense when you're in a good low number spot I like it and I like for my Jets future potential even though I don't think we get it this week we're in a good spot more on pace you're looking at our best bets quick recap Brinson going for the Eagles Monday night football minus four and a half in Chicago me and Larry both on the Seahawks minus the six and a half when they traveled to the commanders here and R.J. looking to go three and a with team totals Jets team total over 19 and a half versus Detroit here gentlemen we made it through another week of football ahead of us hope we don't have as many injuries as we just saw here many lasting words from the peanut

1:11:43gallery Larry I just wonder what's will gonna get up to now he's got all of Vegas in front of any get hit the poker room hit the pool stadium swim what is on tap I think we might go take the computer down to stadium swim and bang out a Thursday night football best bets article which I will also upload on sportsline.com as well and then but not a ton tonight I'll be honest because seven a.m. my time early edge Thursday morning see you guys there you do hit the hit the subscribe button turn on alerts and I think you on there you on I'm on you're such a professional you really picture when I think of Brinson lying by the pool rang that article it's like that meme that's like where your email finds me I mean it's pretty crazy they're like I mean if you ever been to stadium swim like I can go to my window and watch like the Tigers Blue Jays or the there's like two baseball games on that you can see the entirety of from my window it's it's pretty well see

1:12:44it's a playground it's a playground for Brinson specifically and we wish you the best this weekend with your time there and with the quote unquote wedding that you have this weekend. All right guys thank you for watching again more from the crew as you just heard Brinson and Larry you can catch on the early edge morning show but this is all for us from now every single Wednesday 3 p.m. we are hitting you with take the points and then you'll see the player prop show on Friday as well for now from Ken's and the crew this is all we got good luck with your bets and we'll see you next week.