👑 Week 3 DraftKings NFL DFS TOP Plays | Geno DOUBLE Stack | James Cook III Leverage | Gadsden Value w/Hilow

0:00One week season. There are two obvious shootout spots on this slate, but we're not starting today's build with either one of those. There's another game that high low things could completely flip this slate if it gets going. And guys, that's where we are starting today. And guys with that, welcome to the DFS labs presented by one week season. As always, if you would not mind liking the video subscribing to the channel, we would love that guys. He is high low. I'm she's been your host and high low. Obviously, we're coming into week three here looking back on week two, but week three already, I mentioned it kind of at the start, this Baltimore Dallas game is going to be the shiny object that is going to attract people's attention. You have Josh Allen on the slate as well. He's the highest price quarterback by a good margin, but he's averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game. Besides those two things, is there anything that jumps out to you kind of initially as we jump into week three or of course, any backward looking thoughts on week two as well? Yeah, I think Josh Allen is an interesting one to discuss because we're, we've seen kind

1:04of how that team wants to operate over the last however long. But we'll restrict it to like the last three, four seasons with the current offensive play caller. And it's like they're not and I'll preface this discussion with like, yeah, we haven't the form offensive coordinator becoming the head coach now. We no longer have a defensive minded head coach in Buffalo. But typically what we've seen is we've had to like have some driving force cooks what we call super Josh around these parts out of the woodworks. Like the bat signal has to go up like super Josh has to be summoned. And then we know that he can just completely wreck a slate. What I'm looking for over the next couple of weeks is like their defense is allowed what almost 30 something points per game over the first two weeks. So how does that shift now with an opponent that we don't expect to be overly aggressive and pushing them in week three. So that's what I'm looking for this week as far as like macro stuff is like we have, we

2:04still don't have enough of a data sample, sample to be able to make sweeping statements about these teams. So we're still in like our testing our thesis range of the season. Once we start putting together, you know, five, six, seven slates under our belt, then we can start making these broader sweeping generalizations about these teams. But like right now, the bills are an interesting one because like yeah, they are an offensive juggernaut right now. Josh Allen is hogging all the work which were grown accustomed to inside the five. And it's like does do they structure their offense? They're attacking deep like his, his average depth of target on first down throws is the deepest of his career this year. So like they're doing things to be aggressive. Does that carry forward against an opponent where they don't expect them to be pushing them as much? I don't know. We'll keep an eye on that. So that's an, that's an interesting segue into this slate because anytime Josh Allen is on a main slate and it's not going to be very often because they play a lot of prime time.

3:04It's right anytime. Anytime he's on a main slate, we have to kind of start the discussion. Do we Josh Allen or do we not like because he's that he's that much upside. So yeah, let's jump into it, dude. Yeah, man, absolutely. Pull up the draft Kings slate here. This is we're looking at week three right now. Yeah, with Josh Allen, I mean, do you think that's the salary him being priced 500 above the next lowest guy in Lamar Jackson? Is that going to depress his ownership at all? Your quick thoughts on that ownership at quarterback really doesn't mean anything. Just way the way that pricing is in DFS, especially on draft Kings. I guess even more so on Fandall where it's a lot more condensed as far as salaries go. We typically don't see quarterbacks over 12, 13%. So like I'm not really too concerned about ownership. It's more putting together the best like top to bottom roster that we can do and obviously other things honestly are going to influence where we go with that. But like, no, I don't think his ownership is going to get crazy or even be too much

4:08influenced by his salary. It's more so like what we expect the chargers to be able to do through all the injuries and how terrible they've looked so far. Yeah, no doubt. So do you want to look kind of just at over all week three is there when we tease the game that you do like coming into this slate? Do you want to look at that next where you want to go? Yeah, let's go straight there, dude. We have the Lions at home, which is always kind of like our attention has to go there. And when we kind of look at the state of this Lions team now, like we're starting to get reports out of beat writers in Detroit and like fans are talking about it. Like how long do they stick with defensive coordinator, Kelvin Shepherd? This guy is Ben Del Araw hand. I mean, let's be honest. They've had some significant injuries in the secondary of on-tamatics is out. And they bring in a couple of new bodies to kind of shore things up that are not playing well.

5:11Like Chuck Clark, Christian Isian in the at nickel. They're not really playing that great. So they have allowed over 650 pass yards through two games. They are playing man coverage at a top three rate. They're being aggressive. They're blitzing at a top eight rate. So this all of this is like good news to us. And we expect their offense to like find success, particularly at home in a dome. Out of the elements where we know that Jared Goff has had success. So this game, the Jets and the Lions kind of jumps out to me as a game that might go under owned relative to its upside here, particularly speaking about like the Jets side of it because we've seen really sharp people on the Jets the first two weeks. Like we've been on the Jets the first two weeks. Jm you to cow. All these guys you go look at like previous rosters put in play. Go look at like game changer rosters or like the high dollar single entry contest.

6:11You would have seen over the first two weeks like some sharp people putting the Jets in play. Now the field, the general public hasn't necessarily been on them yet. Yeah, but I think they're kind of going under the radar here. We have some sharp people that have been on this offense. This is the spot that I had circled where I want to be on this offense. So we're going to attack this game through Geno Smith. We are going to look at the defensive tendencies of the hands real quick. So should I go into pencil and Geno to start here? Yeah, let's do that. You know what? Let me see. If I can grab the screen share. Can I do that? I would probably shake hand yours. We'll just leave it over at stat rankings.com. We just updated our coverage matrix. We call it coverage IQ.

7:11To the point now where if you click on a matchup, it'll bring up the top to bottom, underlying metrics from a defense. I wish you could pull that if you want to try and pull it up. You want to remove mine from the stage? Let me just show you. Yeah, I got to go. All right, here we go. So here at stat rankings, this is the coverage IQ tool. If you go and you tab over the matchup, it'll bring up a ton of data for the current matchup or the upcoming matchup we should say. So we see here at the top header, man rate, the lines have been in man at 38.5% frequency. It's seventh in the league. They are utilizing that. Just naturally leads to elevated single high rates because typically the NFL in today's meta is utilizing cover one as the general man coverage strategy. Gone are the covers zero days unless it's like fourth down and stuff like that. So that naturally leads to elevated single high rates. They're seventh in single high rates. And they're blitzing at a top six right here at 36.4%.

8:14Also, if you look down here, it'll show you the fantasy points per route run from these splits. So single high and man, allowing a lot of fantasy points per route run, yards for route run, 1.97 from single high, 1.67 from man targets per game. They're facing 11.3 targets per game from single high. That's the second highest in the league, 8.1 targets per game from man, allowing see. So all these metrics are pointing to like Kelvin Shepherd's defense being extremely aggressive. And it kind of shows how this team is performing through two games. Down here at the bottom also, fantasy points allowed per game by position. We're seeing that they're getting shredded by wider severs, allowing the third most fantasy points per game to wider severs. Now, if we use that data and we come back here and look at 2025 to 2026, for the New York football jets, we see that there are some interesting splits here.

9:14Now, teams don't normally play man coverage against the jets very much. Why? Because they are effectively daring them to run the football on them. They know that they can kind of disrupt drives naturally that way. But if we look at Garrett Wilson and Admin Mitchell, this is very interesting. They are almost the entirety of the offense in targets per out run against man coverage. So 36.92 targets per out run for Garrett Wilson over the last one plus season. And 32.86 targets per out run for Admin Mitchell over that same sample. So obviously, this is the gap. It's like Admin Mitchell is not performing as well. But like 0.73 fantasy points per out run for Garrett Wilson against man is elite. Like absurdly elite. So we're going to anchor this roster with both of those guys with Garrett Wilson and with Admin Mitchell. And I'll throw it back to you and stop presenting here.

10:19And we'll go ahead and do that. Okay, so yeah, Garrett Wilson and Admin Mitchell. Yeah, that's some great data right there. You can just see how deep you can get in the analytics. But the biggest was the biggest take home number to you that just going back for a sec. Was it that was at the 0.73 fantasy points per out run? Was that the thing that stood out to you or was it just the the amount of targets they were getting per coverage type? Both. And it was I mean, the elevated targets per out run against man coverage for those two guys to be accounting for such a high rate of targets against man coverage in this offense. And obviously it was a different quarterback last year and we have a little bit of turnover. But that to me speaks volume to volumes to these two players ability to beat man coverage. And if we go back, Admin Mitchell has not really up until last season had not been in a full time role. But he has always had over the course of his career fairly significant man's own splits.

11:24Being much better against man coverage. So if we have these two players that are accounting for so much of their offense against a certain split that they're going to see a lot in this coming game where we expect them to see a lot, we can say if we which is we'll simplify things we'll say we'll do a simple flow chart like if Geno Smith is returning a score in this game at 4,900 that is winning us a tournament. We can have high confidence that the bulk of the passing production. And again, he has a pocket passer stat U.S. quarterback. So what do we need? We need 300 yards for him to hit the bonus and we need three or more touchdowns for him to return 27 to 30 fantasy points. If he's doing that, he has a good chance of helping us win a tournament at only 4,900. And if he's doing that, the production we have a high confidence level at the production is flowing through these two guys. So while instead of getting like a nine leg parlay right, we've already

12:27made one bet for three different spots on this roster. I love that. I love that. Were you done? I was going to ask you a follow up just in terms of with this bet you're making with the Jets, what are you betting Detroit does and are you trying to basically get a piece of that coming back? I'm sure you are, but yeah, obviously. Yeah. We're expecting them to score points because the Jets as we saw last week against the Packers with a very defensive minded head coach in Aaron Glenn, they're not going to come out of that shell unless they're forced to. Exactly. So that's good. Something that is forcing them is the Detroit Lions playing at home where we know that they have a high level of success, high points per game output, high yardage per game output. So we do need on this roster and this isn't always going to be the case. Go back to week one where we were talking about Bryce Young and we said like, you don't need to force you don't need to force a bear because the opposing offense in Chicago was not concentrated.

13:27So like they could score a crap ton of points and not one pass catcher could be the reason why. And that's what happened. Like they put up six rushing touchdowns and like it was optimal to have only Bryce Young and Jaylen Coker and Dion Joy Swift from that game, but like you didn't need to force a bear bring back. I think conversely speaking, we have a Lions team that is highly concentrated. So I think we need either Jamir Gibbs or Amon Ross and Brown on this roster. We can do either. Let's throw Amon Ross and see how it all comes together. Amon Ross gives you a discount of 900 to start there so that will give us a little more breathing room in this lineup. It already a good start here. How different do you feel like you're going to need to get with a jet stack? I mean, even when you initially said I want to build Detroit Jets, I thought of myself, oh, he wants to build a Detroit stack with a Jets bring back. And so you even flip the script on me. So I feel like this is not going to be that highly owned, but who knows? Who knows?

14:29Who knows what could happen? Yeah. And the interesting aspect about this matchup also on the other side for the Lions is the Jets are playing a lot of man coverage this season as well. So that discussion of like do we expect as much elite concentration is probably less so we should expect the offense to be less concentrated against an opponent playing so much man because Jemo has very stark man zone splits. Even Sam Laporta has always been better against man coverage. So there is the potential for like one of those guys to be the one of the driving factors in this game. But I think we'll just go with Omnero here and see how it all comes together. I will also add, if you like what you saw over at stat rankings, you can go sign up for a stat rankings account and use code OWS for one week season. So OWS, that'll get you 20% off your subscription. And another

15:30unique thing that we just added at stat rankings is the ability to connect your AI of choice into stat rankings subscription. So you can give your AI complete access to all of the stats. It's over 10,000 unique stats. You give them access to all these stats that we have and ask it simple questions like who leads the league through two weeks in fantasy points per hour on against man coverage and bam, it'll spit out the answer. So that is there's nothing else like that in the industry if you're interested in that. You can go to stat. I might have to do that. Yeah, I'm going to have to do that. It saves so much time, especially for us like data nerds who are in their day in and day out. Yeah, use code OWS gets you 20% off of a stat ranking. So I want to drop that real quick. Love that. And code OWS, like I just said. So you could basically if you have like a chat, GBT or cloud or whatever model subscription, you can basically just connect it there and have it

16:31access. That's amazing. Yeah, super simple to connect. It's like it'll lock you straight through. You click a button and you can connect your AI into stat rankings. Love that. Love it. Okay, let's see. Where do you want to go now? Should we look at running back? Do you want to look at running back? Yeah, let's look at running back because there are some running backs that I think we need to talk about. So one of them has to do directly with the Josh Allen discussion. So like if the discussion and we have two of those quarterbacks on the slate in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, we'll talk about just Josh Allen right now and say like we know he very clearly can put up a score you could not win without. How does he not do that? Either the offense is failing to score 30 plus points or somebody else is scoring the touchdowns. Who is the most likely player on the bills to be scoring the touchdowns if not Josh Allen? It is James Cook. So that's right. We'll throw him in this roster because we're not betting on Josh Allen and it is direct leverage

17:34off of him not putting up a tournament winning score. And then with like Adon I Mitchell in this roster, we should be looking for like one other lower owned piece, but I don't really want to be going to running back because there are only so many workhorse backs. There are only so many of those backs that are going to be in plus matchups this week. So we're just going to go with like a player that's probably going to be mega chalk on the slate and put in Kenneth Walker. I don't really care about ownership at this point. Kenneth Walker against Miami is averaging over 170 yards from scrimmage per game. We'll just put that in there. Chiefs are suddenly a run first team. They're a well-rounded team. They are not just forced to attack five to seven yards downfield. And I think the biggest indicator of that is that the legitimate change in role of her she writes. Like he's running less screens. He's running less behind the I say running, but like he's being

18:38utilized less behind the line of scrimmage. We have Kenneth Walker who over 20% team target market share. They are using her she writes as A dot has jumped from like sub five to like now close to 10. They're using him downfield. They have altered his role and said that like Kenneth Walker can do all those things that he did, but better. So Kenneth Walker is I expect to be mega upside from here on out. Yeah, I love that. I just wanted to really quickly call out to you guys. Just what Highlow did there with the James Cook play because he's not just saying hey Josh Allen is a great play, but we're just going to ignore him and hope he doesn't kill us. He's basically accounting for not having him on the roster by saying, all right, if Josh Allen doesn't have a massive game, maybe James Cook does. And again, this is a lineup we're building. We're not saying play this lineup on Sunday. It's Tuesday. So a lot could certainly change up between now and then, but just like theoretically and fundamentally how you should be thinking through like how to approach a play like Josh Allen, if you aren't going to actually play him, I think what you did there is is great.

19:40Just an early season reminder of how to play leverage. Right, right. So let's go to tight end. We're already there. He's probably going to gain steam over the course of next few days. But we're going to pencil in Aronde Gatsden here. In a game environment that we've already talked about against the bills, the bills have allowed like how many click on, click on James Cook real quick for me. How many points per game are they allowed? 31 31. Okay, so they've allowed 31 points per game. Houston, we saw how much they struggled against the bangles and they were still able to put up 31 on Buffalo. We expected the lines to score 31 against pretty much anybody, but the fact of the matter is this bill's defense for a long time, personal wise, hasn't been the most talented group on paper. They had a former offensive coach who was sorry, a former head coach

20:44who was a very defensive minded head coach and he was able to kind of mask a lot of those through his scheme. Well now with him out of the picture, we're kind of seeing how exposed this bill's defense can be. We have on the flip side here a chargers team that has struggled. They ran, they've run like the fewest offensive plays in the league through two weeks. They have extremely struggled. We have two tight ends that are on IR now, Aronde Gatsden. He wasn't seeing playing time because he is basically a nothing in blocking metrics. But that's kind of out the window now. They it's like they have to play him. Yeah. Yeah. So now with a full week of practice, I expect him to be in a in a row at like 65 to 70% frequency, maybe higher in this spot. And against this matchup, we know the bills are attacking aggressively down field on early downs. They are putting up yardage, putting up points. They have a running back in James Cook who can rip off long ones. So like

21:44if the bills kind of open things up here, the chargers are sitting at 0 and 2. Do they kind of are they like resigned to how they've been playing like no, I expect them to like we have to do something to save our season right now. So enter Aronde Gatsden. I think he's just a natural fit in this roster. Yeah, I love that. All right. Got two spots left. You want to look at defense and see what it leaves us. The Vikings are kind of cool there at 3,100. Let's put them in and see what that gets us. We saw what they did last week. Like you can say what you want to about the weather, but like Brian Flores won that game against the Bears. It wasn't the weather that won that game for the Vikings. It was Brian Flores. So with how bad Baker has looked, losing to the Browns, we'll just see, we'll see what that gets us here. So we have 5,700. Jalen Warren, there's an injury in the backfield,

22:46could be, but the Pittsburgh run game has been so atrocious, not really interested in that too much. Visual Tutan, the Jags, offensive line has not been great. Alec Pierce is out. Jeremiah love. So like Josh down sticks out to me. Alec Pierce going to be out. They just signed Darius Slayton off the street. Last night, he is going to give them at least some ability to attack downfield because without that, they have like Josh Downs in an intermediate role. They have Tyler Warren in like a short area role. It's like they don't have anybody to stretch the field. So they at least have that now, but it's like Slayton's coming off the street. They're not going to feature him. This often is probably going to be heavily concentrated on Downs. He carries significant upset at 5.7. So we'll pencil them in. Call a good there. Love that. All right, guys. So the final build, that's the the build is complete.

23:47And the build we landed up landed on here for those you listening on the podcast. You have went with the primary stack that New York Jets, Geno Smith, Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, the bring back of Amonero, St. Brown. And again, you could play around with this. Like you said, Hyloh, you could go with Laporta. You could go with Jamo and free up some salary for some some other spots there. We went with Amonero, St. Brown, running backs with James Cook, Kenneth Walker, and then tied Andrew on a Gatson and then finished off with Fiking's defense and it downs in the flex. Hyloh, any final thoughts, man, before we send this one off and an early look at week three. Yeah, so the bet that we're making here is that the Jets and Lions becomes the game that you needed. So in doing so, there's going to be a natural reaction to say, I didn't get any exposure to the Cowboys and the Ravens. We've already accounted for that. We've accounted for that by saying through this roster construction, the game of the week is this one, not that one. So you don't need

24:53to feel like you don't feel you need to feel like you have to account for everything honestly. I think that's a very natural tendency is to be like, oh, well, I have to even though I'm anchoring this roster on the Jets and the Lions, I have to account for that Ravens and Cowboys game. It's like not really. We have we've already accounted for it. You don't really need to double count for it. So just final thoughts here out the door. Absolutely. The guys with that, we thank you for tuning in to the DFS Labs. Good luck as you prep for week three and I'll see you all.