US 30-Year Yield Hits 5.6% as Bond Market Pressure Builds

0:00Good morning, good morning. Welcome to the modern market where we discuss all things to do with the markets. That is the equity market, the crypto market, the NFT market and any other market where we can make some all the money on the internet. Not having been making that much money the last few days though to be honest with we're chopping around a little bit after a little bit of a decline. Let's discuss. We're going to be discussing today what our general thoughts are and getting into some important assets which we like and getting into some big headline news, interesting stuff going on on the AI side which I'm increasingly noticing. Notice, notice, notice what is going on with these AI companies, equities are soft. At the moment, I would say micron earnings today as well. Looking forward to get into it,

1:01also looking forward to give away $500 today to our weekly perps winner on mobile via our partnership with Sway. Can't wait to do that. We'll explain more details. Today, let's get into it starting with checking with who's here. I've got one and two Rizwan checking in first. Today, I want to come a month, I want to look at my morning to diabetes, I want to English, I want to drew, morning to Bhutoshi, morning to Husker, I agree, it's going to be a bonkers show today. It's going to be a bonkers month, it's going to be a bonkers year. That is my estimation. Getting into it to get you up to speed with what's going to be on the show today, we will talk. We're going to talk the US 30 year note surging again. So treasuries going higher again. Yields are going higher again, sorry. What are we going to do about it? Some interesting points being made, some interesting commentary about how maybe this is somehow bullish, maybe it's not as bad, maybe some commentary around interest rates that are coming out for the next.

2:06Fed meeting might mean that they don't need to hike again. Let's see, we'll get into it today. Liter is down 14% as Robinhood announces perps using Bidstamp. I think that took everyone by a little bit of surprise. Everyone thought Liter would be the kind of de facto place for Robinhood, but we'll talk about that. And then finally on the AI side, we'll talk about Trump changing AI to SI with support of top CEOs. I don't know if any of you guys saw this video with all these guys standing around, it just looked like a little bit of a clown show to be honest. I feel like they were bullying Dario as well, which maybe is justified, but they're all kind of standing around sniggering as Dario is talking about AI and whatever they're talking about. So pretty, I don't know, so all performance, isn't it? At this point, so we'll just good reality TV.

3:07Right, let's get into the other headline scheme, you have to speed and the price action, of course. The Trump administration is releasing up to 40 million more barrels of oil from the nation's emergency reserve. Word is, the numbers suggest that this, the strategic petroleum reserve, SPR is being drained quite quickly now, and more has gone out of it than anyone would have liked. So there's that. My current announcement is earnings today after close. That'll be very interesting to watch if they do well, what happens, if they do poorly, what happens. Kind of more interested in the scenario, if they do well, how well do they need to do for the price to actually go up as well? I think that's the question we're looking to see. Standard chartered has initiated research coverage of Athena, forecasting USDE growth of 8x in the next two years. I don't mind hearing that being a Athena holder, and it being one of my larger positions, as I shared visually on the

4:10show the other day, and specifically in the inner circle chat with all of these graphics. I think over the weekend, I shared a full breakdown. Multiconcaptal has invested in grass, quite big news. Multiconcaptal, very prominent firm investment fund. They took a large position in Zcash, relatively early. They probably up very big in that at the moment now they're going into grass. Zcash developers released Udon targeting the networks, proposed scaling upgrade. You've got Hong Kong's HSB stablecoin, sets to launch the second half of 2026. Paper trade analysis is going live on October 10th on the anniversary of 1010, which is pretty ironic. I think we're going to do a little report on paper trade in the inner circle. These reports take times. It's going to take a lot of research and we'll share our findings in there that we'll talk about it on the show too, but it

5:10will just go in a written version exclusively to inner circle first, and then we'll digest it on the show, I guess, a day or two after when we have time. Very, very popular protocol. Big interview went out with the guy yesterday with one of the founders called Blur, who's very well known and has been one of these kind of on-chain traders, wizards over the years accumulating a lot of capital in the process. CZPost foreshadowing green candle mean, just 10 days before the 1010 anniversary, this is getting a bit weird. You can be honest if you can see that on screen. Then finally, I wanted to include this for all of our friends around the world. Football team Manchester City has been found guilty of nearly all 115 charges as it related to financial fair play. Basically, one of the biggest football teams in the world now decided to completely disregard this is the allegations. It's obviously a legal case that is, well, it's actually not ongoing now because it's

6:15been decided, but I'm sure they're going to try to appeal further. Basically, completely disregarded the rules. There are strict rules to do with spending, and I think America knows this very, very well. You have salary caps. You have all of these things to try to make it relatively ebbed to a ball, but in the UK, it's linked to your turnover. What transpired is that they were just basically cooking the books in different ways, claiming that certain things were not revenue, when they were revenue, and just adding loads of money in in different ways, really challenging the integrity of the sport to be completely honest. I'm not really sure what's going to happen. I'm not sure what's going to happen because they won a ton of a bunch of championships like that. What are they going to do? They're going to take those championships away because they basically overspend egregiously and give it to other people. Maybe that should be what happens. I would hope so. I'm also a man United fan, so I'm maybe a little bit biased, but I think that

7:18would strain the relation with the UAE too much to do that because ultimately it's a UAE club. UAE club now. So I don't think that they can do that. They're going to get a slap on the hand, maybe a fine and their stand-up with argue. That's the interesting thing. There's lots of different layers to this. You not only have the layer where it's kind of the Abu Dhabi, it's part of their arena. I think some of these things, it needs to be, I'm not sure what the appeals process will be now. They're going to need to go through it. So there's the political question around it. How hard or soft do they want to be? How far is the fight going to go? I doubt this is actually the end of it, so they're going to have to continue. Then there's also the side of it where the Premier League, I saw a very well-known Premier League former owner, maybe it's the current owner, owner, talking about how we also

8:25got to think about just the perception of our league. The English Premier League is obviously a very, very valuable brand. Even if, and whether this is man city or any other club, it could be any club to be perfectly honest, if any club goes beyond what they're supposed to do, you don't want it, you don't want the punishment to be so severe that you damage the whole league. Like, remember there was this, maybe you don't know, if you don't like football as much, but there was a big Italian betting scandal, it was completely different from this, got nothing, no similarity in some respects, but there was this big Italian betting scandal about some of the top clubs, and to really damage the league, it damaged the credibility of the league, which made the league less valuable. There's probably some commercial balance to be struck there as well, if they want to proceed in some capacity, how do they do so in a way that maintains all the value

9:27for all the people who are in it, not just the people at the top, the players, the fans, the people who work in these clubs, these are huge, huge operations who are reliant on that money to continue to float. So, very interesting perspective, very, very interesting. Yeah, English saying it's like you get an asterisk in the record books. I don't know, do people pass it on to the other person? I don't know. I'm not sure, do people get retroactively given the goal medal, if someone was proven to be on steroids when they won the gold, like 16 years later, or something, Zama said, Everton had one breach and would docked like 10 to 20 points punishment will be hot. Yeah, so there are other clubs that have done things like this, not 100% but been in that same kind of ballpark. And yeah, they get they get a big points fine, diabetes asking, can they drop

10:28man city down to a lower league? People have ended up getting relegated. I don't, well, that's what they did in Italy. In Italy, you've a dropped all the way down. They got relegated multiple times, and then over the years they had to work their way back up to the top league, which they did do. But that's how bad it was in Italy. UK, I don't think, has ever done anything like that. They do just take, they have taken away points. So maybe people started the next season with a negative number or something like that. But interesting, anyway, the, maybe a broader, maybe a broader point here is it seems like, and again, I'm not commenting on the specific specifics of this case, but more broadly, I think whatever kind of rules based order we have had in the past, whether that's in Europe, whether that's in America, whether that's between Europe and America, whether that's China, Europe, America, Russia, whatever kind of governing

11:31factors we used to rely on very deeply. I just feel like increasingly they are less and less reliable. Quantum coming in, that's a good point. It happened to ranges as well. I think they went, maybe they had to go all the way down. Yeah, they did. Yeah, remember Glasgow ranges had to start off from the bottom wrong as well. So they didn't just get relegated once. It's like a multiple relegation. They have to go all the way down and then work their way back up through because in the UK, there's multiple leagues. Americans don't know this because you just have the monopolies that get to be the best teams, I think. Or maybe there's some other leagues. There's no relegation and stuff in there. But okay, interesting stuff. I thought that was an interesting piece of news. So I wanted to add it in. Let's get to price action. Let's get to price action. To get into that conversation, what do we have? I think we're just chopping around guys. We're just chopping around a little bit. We've got Bitcoin at 83.6.

12:36We've got ETH down a percent to 2,688. Got Zcash. More or less flat around 1422. Has dipped underneath 1400 a couple of times. It's bounced relatively quickly just back out of it. But by no means kind of up and ranging back in the old ranges. Feels a little bit precarious here. It was like everything's watching Bitcoin. Hype is down almost 2% to 86. Near is actually up 11% back to 530. Gosh, that's bounced back fast. Pump is up another 11% to 5.7. Oil down a percent to 90. Lit lighter down 11% to 3.9. Silver down 0.6 to 60. Nvidia down a percent to 27. You've got met up 2%. Athena up 1.6. SpaceX up a percent and a half. Still around Fit 150. Around that IPO level. Gold is flat around 4180. Are they moved up big? Yes, it was up almost 10%

13:40yesterday down 4.5% today to 160. You've got my crime more or less flat before earnings today. Probably going to see which way that goes. Fairly fairly priced at Rwad 106.8. I feel like it would be a bit of a coin toss here. I would not love to just flip a coin on it to be honest. I don't think I'm going to trade that. Well, coin up 3% to 51. Ponds up 6% to 56. Less 0. Zero up 11% to $1.76. Grass is up 6% on that multi-coin news to 72.72. What else? Anything else that's catching our attention here? Probably not. Let's throw over to ledge, see what he thinks. Then we'll get into a bigger discussion about the stuff. Ledge was catching your attention. Anything that's catching your eye? What are you thinking? A couple of things on my mind. One of which English, or you mentioned in the comments, that is to do with artificial ENO and the third headline, which is that we are now calling it super intelligence

14:44and not AI anymore. On that news, you had artificial ENO move down. It did recover a bit, moved on more than 10%. It's still down 11% on the day. The AI ticker did not like that part specifically. That is the one thing. The other thing I want to maybe. One quick question on that ledge, because people might be curious. Was there an SITicker launch then as well? There was an SITicker, but they moved from 30 to 40 millers. I didn't move too much on that news. It's not like in the good old days when Elon talked about something and you had that. This is the thing. It's just so hard at the moment. You would need to have been online. You should have been there right at that moment. If you weren't there for that moment, it's over. You're too late. The pump has happened. It's just a hard game to play. Hard, hard game to play. English saying yes. It's moving even higher. Super. It's moving higher. Let's get that up.

15:47It's on the stock. The Salana Super ENO one. It pushed higher. It dropped down a little bit, but it's now it's ripping. Tell us the numbers. Up 41% of the last six are 57 mill F and DV on that one. Interesting. Just pull up the White House tweet ledge to show people the graphics. When you see something like that, I don't know. It's pretty. I need to tweet. Give me one second there. When you see something like that, it's one of those where, I don't know, do you think it's got any lasting power? It's a Wednesday. Things that I'm thinking about when you see something like, like, okay, it's Wednesday. Could they be tweeting about it more over the next couple of days? Will there be more content coming out about it over the next couple of days? Very potentially. I do think they're trying to meme this into existence. I think they genuinely really dislike.

16:49You've heard Trump talk about it a couple of times now. He's like, you shouldn't call it artificial. It's not artificial. It sounds like this is their genuine rebranding. I'm curious then. We're going to start off on the riskier side here. I think Hershey, for example, I don't know if Hershey's watching and saying, you can comment, or I mean, he'll be on the show with you tomorrow so you can talk about it as well. Does this affect your, I think, in AI as a token? It had been one that on Robinhood, people were like, AI is listed as well, isn't it on Robinhood? Is that one of the ones that is listed or one of the big bets that people think it will be listed? I don't know that to be honest. But are you in it? I am in AI, but it's a small position. It's not the biggest position. Sure. Does this, do you think this S.I. meme, superindulgence meme, affects like you're thinking on it? Not really. I mean, Trump likes to rename things. We have the Gulf of America.

17:56And so on and so forth. But truth be told, I do like superintelligence more than AI. I do think AI is a dumb name for that because it's not really artificial. It is still man-made or human-made intelligence. And I don't like the artificial intelligence term too much, but I don't think you're not going to, he's not going to be able to rename an entire area of research, the entire scientific field, the entire industry just be saying, oh, we're going to call it superintelligence now. I guess that sounds a bit too mimetic. I don't know. What if he says he's going to put tariffs on everyone who doesn't, doesn't call it superintelligence? Yeah. I don't think that's happening. They could be consequences. Long-Mushra says the whole S.I. thing is dumb. W.T.O. they're forcing the S.I. thing. It's too forced.

18:56Look, I don't know. W.T.O. it's not natural intelligence. English said it's a term that's existed for 80 years or so. Lots of things have existed for a long time. Trump doesn't care about anything that is true. For any amount of time. Funky Chinese. The crazy part is that superintelligence was supposed to be the thing that was above AGI. Oh, so there's actually layers to this. Superintelligence is meant to be a layer. Trump's just going for it straight away. I don't know, guys. Look, I think to the main point, I'm not participating in these tokens. I think it's too fast. My bets are getting placed elsewhere. I think this stuff is super risky. I do think, if you were going to ask me to my hat on, I do think they're going to keep. They're going to stick at this. Do you know why? They're going to stick at this because of how badly

20:02how poor the reception has been to data centers from so many people in America and Europe and everyone. People don't want data centers. They think it's going to use loads of water. They think it's going to take all their jobs. They think it's got like the PR for AI in its former form and the frankly in its current form is very, very bad. And I think whatever this rebrand plan is, they're going to need to get the data centers built. And so, who knows, maybe it is a good meme to get behind because it's a real world genuine thing which is going to need to happen. They are going to need to meme this. I don't think the current administration are going to talk about artificial intelligence anymore. I think they've decided it's called super intelligence. That's what they're going to say for the next two years because everyone hates the data centers and hates AI. But do you think that super intelligence is the more like public friendly term

21:04to rebrand the entire narrative? I don't think that's going to do the job. I think it's the White House. Whatever the White House says is going to happen. Not into the technicalities of exactly what happened. The other day, I think they banned someone from the press room because they asked him like a really difficult question or something. Maybe you're not going to be allowed in the press room if you say artificial intelligence in the future. I missed a great opportunity. You know, you did golf in America, you did Lake America. You could have gone with AI and called American intelligence as the layer that sits on top of everything. There you go. Diableta says, Zuck used super intelligence as well when he was... All his commercials. But literally, exactly. See, that's what people are going to think. Well, if I use the term, then we're going to be the favored ones.

22:06Everyone wants to be the favored ones. What else did Funky say? They also didn't help that the font they chose to be announced when it looked pretty close to the font they used for the title of the terminator. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I mean, talking about AI, let me quickly jump in and talk about the open AI, DevDay, that happened yesterday. I said it's going to happen yesterday. It did happen. There's quite some interesting things there. There we go. This is the DevDay 26 recap. They announced quite a few things. First is thoughts that is basically their alternative to Metamuse or to Grocbot. You know, can have your own AI, open AI, but that is living in the cloud, can also live on your computer as well. Codex in the cloud making it easier for you to move everything in the cloud and not have to work locally.

23:11Then they're making a marketplace for plugins. This is the interesting one. They're saying they have 1.2 billion weekly users. And they're saying that they're now creating a way to sign in with Chatchy PT and use your own tokens. So I could create a plugin that does some sort of token analysis. Beecher could use it, could sign in with his Chatchy PT account, use his own tokens and make that a paid transaction as well. They do want to, they focus a lot on like enabling business owners, helping business owners and they see the marketplace that they have. Chatchy PT space to have collaborative working together. And what they also did is, Decisions API, which is basically Jeff. So that model that is not an LLM in a sense that it's outputting text is just taking super fast decisions and then announced this new plan, the Pro 500 with UltraFast.

24:12That is the one that they upgraded to. That is the one that's using the 3Bros infrastructure to deliver Astra to you six to eight times faster. That's pretty crazy to see if you use that yourself. How fast things can get done. I tried it to read the entire transcript of the show and highlight some interesting pieces there. Hope yesterday's show, it's a task that would take it a couple of minutes, did it in 15 seconds. But it's also burning through credits at an absurd amount. After working for six minutes with it, I burned through 10% of my entire weekly usage on the 500 plan. So that is obviously what they sell. Super expensive API to businesses as well. We need not extremely fast compute to just to see where that is going and how fast that custom chip infrastructure with the 3Bros chips can be. It makes me bullish on 3Bros to be honest because I do think that makes a difference.

25:13If Aaron has the access to the same amount of intelligence, then who's going to win is that entity that either can use it in the best way or that can deliver that intelligence in the fastest way possible. So I do think that there is an edge there. And apart from that, when they also did this, when I talked about yesterday, they did decrease the caps on the $200 plan. Basically, Cup that in half made the whole announcement that you're still going to get more things done. And if you use the dot and talk to it, that's not going to use your credits, etc, etc. And what they also did. And this is where I was quite happy and also oxycmoa community got good luck with that too. They have given you credits for old legacy users of the $200 plan. And I've gotten 62,000 credits. That's basically $2,500 worth of API credits to use until the end of the year to compensate for the fact that they're decreasing

26:13your subscription limits. But that is the news from the OpenAI. Def day yesterday. Interesting. Okay. Look, one question for you to first to just chat about for a few minutes before we get into the main stuff. One of the things I shared yesterday in the telegram, shared a variety of potential headwinds moving into Q4. And I think one of those things, in fact, probably the primary thing for me is the AI thing. I understand that interest rates are moving higher. That is a potential rate hiking cycle. We know what that was like in 2022. It was very, very bad. However, now we have AI or SI. And we have these two frontier model companies who are planning to IPO. And who are planning to IPO, but they seem to be delaying it now.

27:16Now, as a user, what's your, as a, you know, power user, what's your read on the state of those the frontier models versus the other ones? Because a lot of people are saying, oh, you know, they're really vulnerable because a lot of the activity will go to these cheaper models where you can open source, where you can basically get 95% of everything that you need done and maybe you only need way less on the frontier side. And do you have a read on what these guys are up to? The other thing I was trying to articulate in the telegram was these AI CEOs, they kind of remind me of the crypto CEOs in like round one. It's not 100% like SPF, for example, the kind of FTX, sorry. But it's that kind of vibe. It's just what exactly is going on? It's very

28:22GBS behavior. Also, when are you going to IPO? Why'd you keep delaying it? What's going on? What's your, what are your, what are your thoughts? Yeah, that's a great question. So I think that obviously both open air and tropical aware about the, the later models and the open source model can get a lot of things done. And you had an anthropic release, Sonnet 5.5, which is the cheaper model in Opus, but almost equally as potent. So do focus on these cheaper models. And you had another announcement yesterday as part of the open air def day, which is GPT 6.1 Sol, where they're saying it's almost matching Astras intelligence. It's getting close to Opus 5.5 as well. But at a fifth of Astras, standard input price, they are offering that were cash input, 10 cents per million tokens. So they are focusing on the lighter models as one, which they can try to pack as much

29:25intelligence as they can and get the models cheapest they can. And if you're building the frontier, then I think you have an easier task at relatively easier task at post training distilling those models into the lighter ones and offer the cheap models as well. So I think that they can offer both tiers. The super expensive or the super fast frontier model, but I also try to get very cheap models out there. So that is what clearly anthropic has been doing with Sonnet 5.5, making it so potent and skipping 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, doing the same thing that did with Opus. And that's clearly where GPT 6.1 Sol is also focusing on. OK. And your view on the IPO situation, the founders, the valuations, you think it's going to just like an early view, right? I think this is an ever-changing

30:26environment, but it's your early view that these two trillion valuations are in the bag, SpaceX in the end, yep, they managed to do it, 1.5, holding around the IPO price. All these claims about those elevated valuations, you think they're fine, you think they're in danger, any instinct on that, even though I appreciate it, it's kind of early. And this specific arena just seems to change so fast. I think they should be trillion dollar companies just by the fact of the intelligence they're building and there's still a gap between what anthropic and open air serving versus mues versus croc, although they've been very good at catching up. And if you are to believe the numbers that Sam Altman shared yesterday where they said they have 1.2 billion weekly users and now they're doing the open air marketplace. So really, they're also exploring other strategies with that. And then you could also see as part of that that they're integrating some

31:30of the plugins like Adobe, Hicksfield, etc. more and more into the open air interface so that you can basically now integrate Photoshop within chat GPT and be like pull up this picture, please highlight the suitcase which is green and change it to red or whatever. And you work in Photoshop within your chat GPTM. So they're really trying to make it the soup app. And it almost gets the point that if you're not integrated within that and you're publicly traded, you heard the risk or if they're just doing the thing that they basically did with spaces where if you go to spaces you have the shared workspace which looks like an ocean and you can collaborate with other people using chat GPT. They're driving other companies out of business and we've seen that with legal zoom with you know with other companies. So if you have that power and you have that user base and you have a frontier model and we are seeing how other companies are valued, I don't see a reason why both

32:31of them should not be a trillion dollar company at this moment in time. Okay, but one trillion, not necessarily two. Because I think is the number that's going to be the biggest trading. So I could see a world where it goes down to like a SpaceX 1.5 level or a red goes above the two-trill but I don't see a world right now where this both of them should not be at least trading at a trill. If you had to put a gun to my head I would say down from here first then crazy excitement, same as SpaceX then. Like down from here, up on TGE, up on kind of the first week of trading and then back down to lower from here. That would be my instinct for now. Traded SpaceX very nicely on the show because I mean it will depend on the dynamics. We understood the flow, it was super low flow with a small percentage of the stocks even available but there will be

33:36a hell of a lot of excitement for these companies coming to market. So interesting. Look at the at the prospectus that and the topic filed where they have to disclose the IPO prospectus, some of the numbers right this is a 42 billion dollar net loss but the majority of that is non-cash charge so that's fair value accounting, adjustments blah blah blah operating loss chronocolies only eight built and yes that is up versus a three-build and was in 2024 but I don't think that I would have expected these numbers to be way bigger like I know that you know 42-build net loss and nine-build operating loss is not a great number to brag about but given how much they're spending and what they're doing and how fast they've been growing nonetheless I don't think that these numbers are that horrible at all. Okay well we'll think on that more there's going to be a trade there I think that emerges let's see when we get the kind of token dynamics I

34:38don't mind actually putting a little anthropic short on here to then take off before because then I think whenever they whenever they go do go live it will rip for a period of time so let's think about that one I think we've got a bit of time to prepare that. Montage GGWP checking in morning to nickel open AI and anthropic may be waiting until the midterms are over and for Democrats to win before they go public I mean it's pretty obvious that the AI labs do lean left for sure is there some broader strategy there I can't see it because I think they'll have to come to terms they do want to AIP to IPO even if the Democrats were in after midterms I don't see why that would be more helpful to them like the president will still be they need the president on board to make sure he's not going to go and do something in Iran on the day before the IPO for example

35:40and I would not be surprised if you remember if you caution my back to the SpaceX IPO there was a little period of peace just to let SpaceX go I would be certain that that would be at least part of the reason so you look they're going to want this president on board in my opinion I don't think there's anything more to that personally right before we get into the main headlines today and I was just chatting around various things it's important to talk touch on these topics I think want to give a shout out to our sponsor today our main mobile and exclusive mobile perps partner sway and sway is an awesome mobile perps platform you can sign up on mobile and we are giving away $3,000 every month in trader rewards if you lose sign up with us at the modern market I'm going to share more details or who was the winner this week remember we do

36:45$500 each week for the top trader and then $1,000 at the end of the four week period to the person who did the most volume so I'll give you some updates on that at the end of the show we'll go through the leaderboard the leaderboard we're evolving as the weeks go on so we're going to have it all ready for you for next week but I can take you through the rough I can take you through the PNLs and the relevant numbers today as well and so we're going to do that towards the end of the show just shout out again to sway for partnering with us and all the traders who are participating got more than 20 people participating on mobile with us at the moment so we'll get to the giveaway at the end of the show today um let's first headline today is the 30-year note continues to surge tell us what we need to know here should we be concerned how is that linked with rates the fed the next fed meeting is now not too far away when we're going to be talking about interest rate

37:49hikes potentially again what do we need to know here what's the significance yeah absolutely we have the 30-year yield above 5.6 percent that is the highest it has been in the last 24 years means it is up 36 bips this month alone last time we talked about the 30-year I said mortgages are in the US at 7.5 percent now they're moving up as well moving to 8 percent that is being reported where the co-basis letter co-basis is clearly concerned about that it made multiple posting that this is an unsustainable situation and then on the other hand you have a bit of a bit of fed guidance coming from John Williams who's the vice chair of the FOMC and he had something to say in his remarks at the university at Buffalo and he said that one more hike may be appropriate late

38:52this year and he also went on to say with the policy action we took at our septema meeting there's no need for urgency and we have time to gather more information the relation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and he also said if the economy involves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timely return of inflation to target so clearly not seeing or not saying that there is no urgency there but also doing a bit of forward looking guidance which they with which they stop doing but they now apparently bringing back and if we take a look at the odds of the rate hike on polymarket just around that picture can see that there's been a big shift and that now the markets are trading

39:54no change for October at 60 percent and only a 40 percent chance that there's going to be another rate hike in October and then if you look at the December odds this is where you can see that they have gone up to now 75 yesterday 77 percent that there is going to be a 25 pips rate increase and that the no change option has been going down very very significantly over the last 20 days but there's also been a stronger move yesterday after after those remarks the market now seems to think that late this year obviously means December won't mean the next meeting in October and that is the situation on the yields and rates yeah I'm not sure I mean I think it's very dubious I maybe this is inevitable it's very dubious

41:00that after saying that no one wants any forward guidance anymore you have different people from the Fed coming out and really trying to calm the markets with some type of non-official forward guidance because this is now not being done in official in official capacities kind of between meetings this used to happen a lot but I think the point was there was it was supposed to stop so I don't know I'm I'm kind of open to the idea that they feel like they have to stop at some point but they do need to get the narrative to stick that they're um that they're not going to they they need to get the narrative to stick that it would be bad to continue to hike um but the challenges if they can get some better inflation

42:05data I think that's that's going to help them but um I'm not convinced at the moment I'm not convinced that we can just get out of the hiking cycle just that easily so have no real strong view there at the moment my my general opinion had been that it's fine rates can go up and risk assets can go up in this specific circumstances along with equities like rates can go up yields can go up stocks and equities and all this stuff can go up simply because of the way the people are betting on AI and the way that they're viewing AI is such a huge amongst opportunity and like even if you can get 5.6% in one of these notes people's suspicion is that you're going to get more from the market like that's how profitable these companies are at the moment that's how well they're doing you're just going to have to keep sending the number higher

43:09to force our hand to take to sell our Nvidia stock in order to go risk off and give it to the government so that's my general set of thoughts I don't have a good full you adjustments and you're taking base from the other way well not on the equities side but the thing that I shared in the in a circle chat telegram chat yesterday actually I've been sharing this a bunch across in the various telegames been sharing a bunch of the just general concept that I would like to consolidate out of the most risky stuff I have like is there a way maybe when something goes up in price a little bit can I get out and just hold some cash for a little bit and then decide where I want to redeploy into things that I'm even more bullish on now because when I shared I actually went through the show on the show the other day when I was by myself I shared all of the assets I shared the spreadsheet not spreadsheet the the wheel of assets that I had and it was almost 10

44:15to me that could be too many and so for example yesterday I sold a few of my quadrons I had a few which are basically a 10x even at this level it would have been a 20 30x if I sold at the highs but they're basically a 10x at this level which is fine so I sold a few of those to raise cash like my idea is let me raise some cash to be ready Bitcoin looked pretty comfy here so if everything stays where it is and we just drop around here I think people will be calm but I think people have got impatient and if we were to break down just like if we were to break down and I've raised some cash on the small amount of my portfolio it would just give me a bit of flexibility to say wow Bitcoin's at 74 I'm just saying a random number like that I think would be extreme value and I raised some cash because I sold them stuff before so I sold a few of my quadrons I still hold one and I sold half of my Argonauts but only floor ones so I raised a reasonable number I had

45:2425 so I sold maybe 16 or so sorry that's not right 12 13 but I but I've still got my most expensive ones I wanted to check with someone in the chat I how do I price this like I have the 200th rarest Argonaut it's like a purple hoodie with the bones I don't know how much this is worth there's a standing bid on it for like 4900 so it's like how much should that be if the bid is at that is it worth double I don't know so yeah I want to figure I want to figure that out but yeah those are my concrete portfolio changes that I've made just to raise some cash just have that optionality on the riskier stuff cause the cash position untouched core spot in a position untouched I did close my leverage in that move down and then you can decide if I want to put it back on and I will actually look to put it back on at some point what about you have you made any adjustments? not really not really still patient most of the things I am further down the risk curve

46:30still like my my standard banks which I've been doing quite well still like my orbio I like the standard moon mat I don't know and I know it doesn't make sense to look at it that way but I like that they updated the the fact that you can see your daily earnings and the yearly earnings but on a more serious note there is there is some merit to that and also when we have the interview with simple farmer on the show yesterday most basically saying the same thing on having a deep liquidity pool and standard is the way this designed it's not a 25 mill market cap and 12.5 mill or 12 mill or so in liquidity it's by far the deepest liquidity pool and because of that I'm like way more comfy to hold that and extending my my branches and it has been way less volatile than the others so I'm quite happy to hold what I have there and be patient okay that's a good good update I think okay what we should do here Lege let's I think you're going to do the why don't

47:36you just take us do the lighter headline and then we don't need to do the SI one again we've just chatted AI and SI in two different ways we don't need to do that so we'll do the lighter headline and then I will do the giveaway or announce the giveaway for sway yes let's do it let's get it up on screen we had the announcement by Robin Hood yesterday that they're rolling out perps for US traders and with up to 10x leverage on that they also now are making the point that they're now the first major brokerage to offer all six asset classes stocks options crypto futures prediction markets and perps within the same app within the same interface and that was two the detriment let's get it up oh where is my coin market cap of lighter which has moved down quite quite significantly on the day

48:42has moved on 14% just pulling up the chart for you there we go is now trading at a $3.90 and you can see this steep decline yesterday where we're still trading at almost $1.5 and basically went down in one single candle with that just checking on the valuation there is that around five bill is the five the equivalent of bill like you can just put a bill after it like five yeah in terms of the FTV you are at four bill FTV you know 3.89 FTV and market cap is just the touch on the bill it's interesting I'm just wondering pumped to the exact same thing pumped basically went to around 5.2 pull back to 3.6 3.7 and has now ripped back above to 5.7 but it basically stopped around the same level I wonder whether there's some type of psychological thing here around the

49:45five number for these coins that have just ripped from lower and you've got to consolidate a little bit at five because I know because I went long pump at 5.2 had to defend and I doubled down at 3.8 which was my liquidation level I doubled down just above it then it went back to 4.5 at which point I was break even because I had added the same amount or doubled the position at 3.8 that I had at 5.2 so I was a terribly designed trade literally long the top then but the reason I took it on because I was willing to defend that 3.8 level and I did and that was good that I did and then I came out basically break even I still hold some spot but yeah I wonder whether like this this maybe doing the exact same thing to be honest like five it just got too too quickly down to 3.0 something and I think it's balanced a little bit yeah there's one in the chat saying same

50:50market maker same rules yeah I think maybe it's just copy paste that's how all the tokens are going to be this year let's see the next one for me will be Athena so if Athena can but on a slightly different scale so Athena was at 0.1 basically has gone up to 0.2, 0.3, pulled back a little bit let's see if it can get to 0.5 and the Athena numbers are different by the way so it's not like 0.5 is not equal 5 built but my point is you know we'll go to 0.5 back to 0.3 before it then rips higher I don't know let's see. One more thing on Robinhood because we also mentioned yesterday that the hood summit then happened. They announced another thing which I also found quite interesting and that is Robinhood agents did something around the genetic trading back in May but now they announced Robinhood agents are on making on the same

51:51day where open announce their dot agent so the way it works is you set up an agent have an agent account you can choose what AI you want to trust with the execution can be open A it can be entropic and the kicker here is apparently there seems to be some sort of partnership with open A because if you use open A you get GPT Luna for free until the end of the year and there you can chat with the agents, analyze the markets there is an MCP to do that which this is being built on and then create and execute a strategy and then you can also have loops so basically every every 24 hours check if this and that has happened and if this is the case then do this and that when certain conditions are met when you're looking at a chart then there's a certain RSI whatever you're looking for you can do that so they have Robinhood that is also been doubling down on agents and on top of that agent apps where you can use for example the

52:53option traders by unusual whales for that exactly what we can speak about option trading is super complex have to understand the Greeks have to understand what's going on and you can plug in another layer of intelligence pay an unusual whales case 30 dollars per month and get get that there's an asset plug in as well etc etc so they are also trained to not only build agents but an agente ecosystem with apps that you can subscribe on top of it okay very interesting very good call up thank you right end of the show today let's get to our giveaway remember shout out to sway our exclusive mobile perps trading partner the best new way to trade narratives on your mobile backed by three thousand dollars every month in trader rewards for people who sign up with us at the modern market for context we've decided to partner with sway because they're built in new kind of news and trading experience in one place you can discover what's happening in the media follow

53:57emerging narratives act on reviews and win by placing trade in your convictions via an amazing mobile application built on top of high public with today's updates that all modern market signups have been officially boosted to pro tier status which means you will get an immediate 20% fee reduction on all trades plus anyone who signs up using your referral link unlocks that same 20% trading fee discount for themselves and you earn 20% of the fees when your referee trades directly on sway so that is a pretty cool feature to cut you into the success of the fee generation and do sign up with us i'm going to take you through the giveaway now and talk through who was the winner for the week and do sign up with us you can sign up using our code mm 3000 legendary we'll drop that in the youtube chat and in the twitter comments it will also be in the youtube description

55:00and Spotify description if that's where you are listened to this later do sign up with us to participate every single week one participant will be eligible for five hundred dollars that'll be the person who has the best pnl for the last seven days and then at the end of the four week month there will be a person who receives one thousand dollars for the person who does the most volume over the last seven days so let's look at the the leaderboard for the last seven days what you can see here is when you click realize pnl uh simian audio is the winner with a pnl of 164 dollars this was a bit of a trickier week i guess we had bigger pnl's last week this was a bit of a trickier week obviously as the market turned down so i think it's super important that you are protecting the capital and to end green on

56:02a bit of a trickier week is obviously very good we had four people in the green simian audio mayhem laser punk and speed bird but simian auto will take the five hundred dollars this week and a little update on the volume uh so we're going to update the general leaderboard to see the volume across weeks but if i sort by volume you'll see that born ready did the most volume with 27k this week mayhem did second most to 21.8k simian did 16.9 jalo did 5.5 laser punk did five quanta did 4.8 sunsica did 1.7 now last week sunsica was topped with 44 so and i think jalo did around 20 something last week born ready did a good amount last week as well so i think the the volume competition is going to be all to play for it's going to be much clearer when we get the update on the leaderboard tomorrow when we're going to have you'll be able to see the total volume across weeks and so i think we're going

57:05to have a lot of people in that 20 to 20 to 30 to 40k bracket of volume so far after just two weeks and then they've got two more weeks to see who will be the highest volume over the four week period and that person will receive an extra one thousand dollars into their account for the most volume at the end of the four week period so that's where we stand at the moment and congrats to simian audio again for winning your doubt five hundred dollars will be in your count later today and we'll do a little update in the telegram chat to share the winners today and the leaderboard when that is ready tomorrow and we will provide those updates mayhem just in the chat now saying it's so close that should have started with more than fifty dollars well looks like you're doing doing pretty well you edging edging up if you only started with 50 you're up 70 this week sounds like you doubled your money which is pretty good

58:08and you know you could always add more if you wanted to participate in the game seems like you're doing pretty well if you've had that little man i mean you've got 21k volume just this week so that's pretty efficient or strategic depending on how you're playing it so good job there okay that's it for today hope you enjoyed the show as always shout to sway for partnering us exclusively on the mobile perps side hope you enjoyed the show we'll be back same time same place tomorrow we hope you have a wonderful day take care see you then bye bye