Uneasy Money: The $388M Bitget Hack Started With a Security Vendor

0:00So as the society we need to decide, do we think this is a good thing that these hyper scalers need so much money that they're so risky that there is a lot of upside left when they hit the market and that that risk, the trade-off space is that they could go bankrupt and be worth nothing and a bunch of retail people could lose $2 trillion. Are we willing to take that risk for the chance to give a bunch of retail people the chance to make $20 trillion? My hot take is yes, absolute. Yeah, like let's go, right? Like let's go. Like I had the whole point of markets. Hey everyone, I'm paying work and welcome to On the E C Money because what happens on Shane never stays on you before we begin here is a word that's sponsored us to make this show possible. This episode is brought to you by 1-inch Aqua, the shared liquidity layer from 1-inch, back multiple liquidity positions with one wallet balance and keep your tokens in your wallet until a swap fills. See how it works at 1-inch.com slash Aqua. Not listening to bits and bips yet, it's our weekly crypto and macro market show with Ram Alawalia,

1:03Austin Campbell and Chris Burkins. Search bits and bips and subscribe. Before we get started, I want to ask you for something. We're making a bunch of decisions right now about unchained. What we make next, when we go live, what we should be doing more of, and I'd rather hear from you before we make them than after. So we put together a survey. It takes just a few minutes. It's anonymous and there's a box where you can tell me what we could be doing better. I read all the responses. The link is in the show notes or you can snap the QR code on screen or go to unchainedcrypto.com slash survey. Thanks. All right, I'm here with my co-host Taylor Mondehen, security expert and awesome, earned a builder enablement at the Aetherian Foundation. And this week we have very special guests with us. Pavlo Saptela, founder of Optek. I think he's going to come in handy this week. We got we got some we got some stories. He's already tried to exploit us while we were backstage sending us

2:06weird links and stuff. So just a bit of war gaming. Yeah, a bit of war gaming. Well played. Well played. He's got Austin's Clankers probably key. It was just it was a little fishing cast. Okay, King. It's fine. Yeah. Just a little test. Just a second. All right. Welcome, Pavlo. Thank you for joining us. Let's get into it. Our first segment is the Big Get Hack, the $388 million test of all of our shit, I guess at this point. So for context on this, I think it was about 48 hours ago. Is that the last time you slept, Tay? Yeah, I made them longer than that, right? Longer like 70s. Like another Saturday hack. I don't know. I can't remember. I don't know actually. So so a few days ago, three or four days ago, there were some strange transactions that people noticed coming out of Big Get. And like this

3:10was we'll get into the details of exactly what happened and what we think the underlying cause was, but it was a bit weird because it was like one transaction, then a bit of a delay, then another transaction. And so like always with these things, people start speculating and trying to figure out like what happened and where the money was going and which addresses, was it hot wall, it's cold wall, it's cold storage, private keys. But I think the the headline is that almost $400 million was stolen from Big Get. And then they're like, ah man, it's fine to worry about it. We got lots of money. So it's it's all good. So that was they did actually, they said that. They really said that. And it seems like he might actually be okay somehow. So we are, we're doing we're doing butter now. I mean, I guess you know, like there's there's a couple of options. If you get a giant hack, right, you can go quiet and not say anything or you can be like,

4:12yeah, it's fine. We're really rich. We'll pay for it. Don't worry about it. That's that's kind of it, right? Like they picked the ladder. They picked the ladder. Yeah. So so let's go through. Yeah, probably go. No, the the baby to style the same thing that baby did, right? Going to a libra, going libra making fun, making jokes, laughing. Yeah. I'm getting like a Lambo and like light it on fire or something. Yeah. Be like this. Like don't withdraw any money. We can do it. Yeah. We can light as many lambo's on fire as we want. We can be here all day with this shit. It's fine. We got so much money. So so maybe take and you just walk us through the like stages here of what what exactly happened? Yeah, sure. It was so it was Friday actually not Saturday. So that's all when it's been since I slept. Yeah, we got the alerts on just major haul all at movements. We have

5:14alerts on like a whole bunch of centralized exchanges and contracts and stuff. So that's it off the alerts. And then it took a minute to actually get confirmation or get confirmation and be confident that it was a hack. In part because the wallets were not completely drained. That was like the I think the weirdest thing was we were seeing their looking and being like I mean it looks like a hack it acts like a hack but the wallets aren't completely drained. We now know that basically the attackers were able to get access to certain systems. They weren't able to get access to the private keys. But once they had access to the systems they were able to like basically spoof withdrawals. And obviously these centralized exchanges have gotten way more complex. They get in their latest statements as talked about they have like a series of sort of infrastructure and servers that all work together. But then they also

6:18have like cross checks. So they have like risk controls and monitoring and nodes. And so it's like this whole big system that works together. And it seems like the attackers got access to a certain amount of it where they were able to either spoof or push back transactions into the withdrawal queue without setting off the risk alerts or the monitors or whatever. I mean you know complex systems are never fail. So it's great that they're getting more complex. Let's add more complexity. You know every time the attackers have to do like a moderate amount of work I'm happy. I mean I'm not happy but is better than like I get another one. They just like someone had private keys sitting on their laptop. And they also you know they've I think both slow miss and bit got have released like relim reports on like the forensics and soft. And it's clear to me at least that like the full they don't have like full full understanding. It's only been a couple

7:23days. But it is reassuring that one they're actually like pushing information out this quickly. And two again it's it's a bit reassuring to me that like they haven't gotten to the bottom of it because that means that the systems are actually complex enough and the attack was sophisticated enough right that means we're like evolving guys. Right. I don't know. It feels weird to me adding complexity like it's one thing to say like don't put the keys on your laptop right like fine right. But I think that this hack would have traditionally been that. I know yeah sure it would have been so like on one level it's good that it wasn't that I guess right. I'm just not sure about whether adding a bunch of complexity to the point where you yourself don't really understand the system is like the better alternative to to that I don't have a lot what's your what's your what's your take yeah yeah so my take on that like the the attackers here they exploited the zero-dabel

8:28neability on a third party security product that the exchange was using so the first thing is that they got inside the exchange because of a security product that the exchange was using right security product that it's meant to protect you was the way in. So first thing connected to that and we have been saying this for years is your security posture is as good as your providers object and operational security posture right and many people do not see that they just take care if they take care of their object which most of them they don't do it's only what they are doing but Treasor didn't check the mailing list provider that we're using most crypto organizations don't check the register that they are using for their domains and they use go daddy and then they don't know why their domain got stolen and then and then regarding complexity yeah the more complex code is

9:32the bigger that our surprise and the more problem is to find a bar some vulnerabilities and we still have too much code written by humans out there and that means that it's full full of stuff that casting being exploited yet but we'll get exploited for sure. So yeah that surface is bigger bigger and bigger and AI is getting more bugs and faster. Exactly. Like the more complexity is getting added and it's AI that's adding this complexity also which makes it even more complicated. Yeah well sorry just to double click on that right yeah Pablo you said there's a bunch of code that was still written by humans that is waiting to be exploited right. Like what's your take on code written by humans versus code written by clankers at the moment. I think that probably today

10:32code written by some humans very few of them maybe maybe it's better than what AI is doing but in the mid or long term for sure AI is going to create more secure code and in the same way that nobody's going to be able to drive a car manually it's going to prohibit it in the same way nobody's going to write code why would you do that right yeah and then we're going to start to put away from that like two years three years ultimately how better I'm not saying of that than me what do you think of thing. I mean I haven't written code for two years already. That's wild that's wild okay so I will say these attackers so these attackers I think everyone's attributed this I'm personally attributing this usually I when we're on this show I won't formally attribute but these are the same attackers as like five in it. They have bags

11:32they are zero kelp down. Wow. It's the big boys it's it's North Korea it's specifically it's traitor traitor. um actually it's really early on but as a joke uh in like the inner circle right but what stood out to me was how fast they got a harbored drum I was like oh wow that's true. They went they like they were like that's how priority who get the hell out of there. They were sitting on I think on avalanche they sat in USDC for like two three hours and I was like what the hell and then when I looked at the consolidated timeline they're basically like hopping um and just like like doing this little mini explosion you get a harbored drum because I can be getting a freezing quickly is that why yeah because it's the same guys like our pros and last time okay which makes it brings me an immense amount of joy to know that like this industry had an impact on them like we're so proud of us for that um because usually like you don't you just don't see

12:37the even when we freeze them we don't say change of behavior because they it doesn't actually impact them enough you know like they just don't care yeah last time you're doing something right last time arbitrage for a pros money I was not in the security council yet I am now but this time we well we didn't get do it for for reasons um it was I it was so fast I think it was like they're off yeah I think they're off arbitrage before the hack news it had even like really spread it's just wild like when they want to go they go so the ITE through DCTP circle bridge I think the question regarding freezing there I think that as we know ITE in many security councils and every time that there's an issue the discussion starts from scratch basically right what do we do

13:42all this there's no policy about that which I don't know if it's good or bad to hire a policy because maybe if you say okay our policy is to freeze funds if it's bigger than 25 million dollars okay they will steal 24 million dollars not 25 maybe yeah but at the same time we always have this discussion of well yeah so let's let's talk about a couple of those let's start with Thor chain let's let's start there um so uh so Thor chain uh is saying like we're like Bitcoin and Ethereum uh we don't sense their buy design well they're they're not like Bitcoin and it obviously if they want to call the chain they can do it as they have already done it right so so it's clear it's not an opinion right it's clear that if they want to do it they can do it oh it's not permission that's right uh the question is why they don't do it now

14:45probably because they are making money with this um and then you also have this this uh thing of okay uh call this law if we if we freeze this then we are opening the question then we're opening the door for government subcom and say okay let's freeze funds from Iran or Venezuela or some foundation in the future or whatever so it's a it's a real issue but they can do it and they chose yeah this is one of the things that I find strange right like if you know arbitrary two months ago three months ago good like kind of credibly say like it's not possible right like it's theoretically possible but it's not practically possible we'd never get everyone to agree etc etc and therefore no right like we're in l2 and you know whatever moon math like whatever fucking shit that they would say right to justify that this is not a thing they

15:48could do they can never say that again unless they change how the chain works right unless they change the way that the chain works in a way that stops them from ever doing it in the future the cat is out of the back right and not just for arbitrum also for optimism also for like every other l2 that actually know like you literally can just reach in and change the balances of any address on the chain arbitrarily because of course you can like how could anyone think that you couldn't um and unless you're going to move to like some you know a mutable system that doesn't have a valid effort like unless you're gonna change the entire architecture of your system forever now you have the ability to do this so if you don't do it that's a decision that you're making right now in your case here probably you're saying like we didn't have enough time to reach consensus which was like fine okay cool right they they got off in 10 minutes before anyone was awake and whatever

16:50right now there's no argument of like can you automate that to make it foster more efficient so you have some credible chance of identifying it whatever whatever the answer is there there's obviously trade-offs um but you know someone would have just dumped a hundred million dollars with the stolen funds on arbitrum and the security council didn't do anything it would raise some questions right because they can't say uh sorry we don't know how right Thor chain has done this they've done the arbitrum thing right like they use the key multiple times multiple things so so they have they are in the same categories arbitrum in that they have actually done the thing and reached in and stopped the chain for there's a reason yes but also but also reallocated assets more than once right internal to their system they've reallocated those so that's not just a freeze that's like that's using assets that don't worry arbitration like they're changing the

17:52balances of accounts in your system right they've done that they also they have right now like the code is not even open source so there's like some private distro channel with like I don't know five rows in it we're running the all the nodes like I would honestly say it took more people to action the arbitrum thing than it would be to action the Thor chain thing like it took more people not just like to sign off right but like it took for our return to do what they did it was like just the amount of Corniche it was it was like actually hundreds of people Forging always brags that it's hundreds of nodes but that's not the case it's like like actual people behind it is dwindling who nearly zero like you know day by day so it's like I don't understand how someone can get on this online and be like sorry man like it's just a willingness thing they're like they all consider themselves these cipher plunks

18:58and I think that it's like actually insulting at this point for them to call themselves this because it's not decentralized it's not secure it's not open source it's not permissionless it's basically the opposite of everything that these guys like purport to stand for it kind of reminds me a bit of like the cold card situation where it's like they're so deeply like OG in their mentality but then in reality they sort of just lie is just yeah not not the thing so like how like Thor chain is not some niche thing now right like it's the primary vector that like most most hacks touch yeah for years now yeah how like how like what is your theory for how this well equilibrium is still in place like what the fuck is going I don't get it I don't get I know I know I don't like JP the war has gone on TV with a freaking aston Martin helicopter

20:06and bragged about this situation he's made Australia hey yeah when I know him well I know him well he's fucking he's a crackhead but you know he's he's like yeah it's it feels to me a little bit while though he has memes of him with the helicopter behind him and he's aston Martin helicopter behind him with the DPRK flag on it and he points to it and he goes I believe in sovereignty I believe it right and it's like you know I just I can't I can't I just I hate them all so much and you cannot tell me that you believe in individual rights and individual sovereignty and then spying all your time building products for North Korean regime that you can't how do you and then you various your own ten million dollars you bought your chain for weeks yeah yeah and reallocate assets manually they wrote special code yeah right the concept made like I don't how is this status quo being

21:06maintained like what is the theory here apart because it's the same thing as the cold card it's like they have this cult and it's like if you just as long as you say the words decentralization permission lessness like you're evil if you're government like sorry like governments are like scrutinizing the fuck out of like Iran and North Korea and all of these things like how is there not scrutiny on this it doesn't it doesn't make sense like and yeah I'm not saying like whether you know I'm not like the biggest fan of governments ever right I don't think the governments of the solution to all of these problems but like the government exists we know they exist because they're fucking trying Roman storm right now for far less than this like what is the theory for how one thing you want my hot take yes give me your hot take like what like what is going on here I don't like I like I'm not I'm not making like I feel this is such a bad take it's such a bad take but like let's go um all of the guys have very like white American names there's no Russian influence there's

22:12no like big scary things so when you look at the companies you look at the headquarters you look at the guys on paper you don't have this Russian influence that the tornado cash guys had and I think that that makes a difference I'm not saying that's the only difference but I think that's considering that that tornado cash is infinitely more decentralized they didn't brag about hacks on the timeline they didn't market their product to rot actors they never explicitly tried to serve dprk they never sat there helping dprk um yeah tornado cash and the and the tornado cash never directly profited it from wandering the stolen funds right like Roman was that sitting there doing this himself with his infrastructure with his personal stuff and taking a cut every single transaction or gene they are and have been for years they brag about it on the timeline they make fun of like the victims of hacks they use the hack volume as literal marketing they use it as like this is a like see how

23:15decentralized and great we are will even wander for North Korea it since for years now and so I don't but like in the early days right like I was like uh like you know bucket like the market is inefficient for yeah scrutinizing shit like this right like but like it's 2026 now like the market is not inefficient for scrutinizing weird shit like this and yet it persists like it just doesn't seem like a stable equilibrium I don't know I like you mean like from like a mark like why do people still do you store chain not even from like from the world like the world solves problems like this like good or ill right the government or someone steps in and says like sorry guys you can't do this anymore we're not gonna allow it and no one's doing that like like Pablo like what's the what's the what's not like well I made you wrong with the with what I'm gonna say not my opinion about about the topic but from what I understand like torching it's in some way let's say decentralized

24:19right so they have no operators out there I don't know how concentrated it is no idea but I know that when they halted the chain in May it was because no operators coordinated that right I think on this court they did that to manually pass the chain so maybe I'm gonna say something probably very very stupid but maybe it's a great idea maybe we need to have maybe we need to start being no operators in torching why not maybe we should if we are no operators there we we will cap power there in order to say hey we want to to help the chain or to for the chain or whatever it's not a bad idea but I have it I do have an answer torching yeah we created a we gridded out to governance attack torching and make them stop unfortunately there's two downsides to being a torching node operator the first is that it's

25:20permission so you have to get you have to play the political game and get the guys to believe that you're a node operator whatever and let you in all right the mission is like you though the other node operators that's no no like permission by like the discord because the the the software is distributed privately you can't what if the what the fuck does that mean permission by the discord you have to like go you have to like go be in the special channel to get the nodes awkward for something that's not like this is the mechanism design man like and and I say this is someone who used to use discord votes to like operate their platform and we stop doing it because those fucking words are there so like you can't use discord as fucking like consensus mechanism it's not a consensus mechanism what the hell is going on here it is it's everything is rough consensus man yeah um well and it's very but it's quite easy because it's

26:20only like two people that are actually making the decisions right we're just talking about if you want to be a node operator you have to get into the discord eight once you're in the discord you have to get in the private discord that has wherever the node builds go because it's it's again it's not open source anymore and so you have to you can like you can like run an old version and like try to be like a node operator but like you can't think you just like it won't you won't actually get tried it great great but but the other reason even if you get past the first hurdle which is theoretically possible because it's just playing a political game right you go in there with like a loser eyes grow a node and you're self-aware and you're like the dexillization man fuck the government hey they'll let you in right theoretically okay yep here's a problem if you if it then turns out that you're larking as an android government laser eye right they take all your money so they can slash you or something right it's not even slashing

27:23just they just run okay okay so Pavlo it was a good it was a good idea like dude I read I promote the idea okay I read I read the fucking the the tornado cash in diamonds right and you know at the time I I talked about this right like there's a bunch of things that are not even bad facts but just look bad right because they got access to the signal chats and like there's things like and they you know of course like the government will always present out of context whatever you've said right which is why you know a good reason for having privacy right like there's plenty of things that you could present that I've said even on twitter if you really make any effort right plank or could could do that for you that like looked terrible in isolation right without context right but when you actually looked at the facts there weren't really many bad facts right there were like

28:25things like you know the the people who were running I can't even remember in tornado cash what the the technical term was the people that were running like the off chain component that would like all the relayers relayers right like so yeah so you know they were like there was stuff about like relayers and things that were like kind of bad facts right like they didn't necessarily indicate that you Roman had done anything wrong but like it was an ideal it wasn't the way that you would set it up if you would known that this was going to go the way that it if what right um and and but like door chain is like bad facts fucking like from top to bottom I don't get it like at this point I genuinely don't get it like in the also the fact so many times that I that's man I just like like in the early days of like I it's like it's fine like I was I was a big 4 chain you know I was like a 4 chains fine like they're doing their best progressive decentralization etc etc like

29:27they've done you know things that are like not ideal whatever but eventually like but it's it's very clear now that that's just not the case right I think everyone goes goes through this period as they grow in crypto right is like a they start and one they're two centralized very common like they're two permission they're two right but then also like if you get any amount of traction you're providing a useful let's call it like the useful liquidity to the bigger market like you're going to have bad actors using you as well yeah I think most people though then like curb that activity because they know right and like when we had ilia from you're all in the show that's one thing said he's like we're let's we're not down to like yeah we should talk about near right like their sensor near 50 mil right well yeah since we're 50 mil of transactions and they they froze five better k which means that basically I think there's a bit unclear basically there was they were able to there was like 50 mil of like trend of addresses that were like trying to

30:32potentially interact with near but like just were never allowed because near detected them so fast and this is like one of the things that the one of the things the near does that basically no one else is doing it is they do have like some behavioral patterns on their controls it's called like they call it shield yeah the the heuristics that they use to work out do they want to interact with this this you know counterparty yeah right and so like one of them like T.R.M. Exit like there's things that exist in the market for like hey don't interact with this person because you know they're probably sanctioned because they've pulled a bunch of fucking whatever like blood diamonds like yeah they have the blood diamond exposure and yeah you can see it on change right like yeah they've been by blood diamonds for blood diamonds study and so you can tell is the North Korean helicopter on chain two do you get the helicopter with the North Korean flag on it on chain yeah I think it's JP Thor dot E.

31:35it is it is um but I was gonna say I think that the I think that the coolest thing about shield is that I don't know dude they just did the things that all the crypto natives are like why is it always been like this they also just have detection on like weird anomalous behavior right like we've talked about so many times before if an adress just pops about of a blue and suddenly has 50 million dollars in it don't interact with it immediately just let it chill for a minute look okay like it's a it's a it's a fresh address it's gonna probably be there tomorrow if it's a good actor right like we've talked about this before right like like why does someone need to sell 500 million or 50 million or whatever the fucking amount of Arve uh that they tried to sell through the Arve mobile app right yes in one fucking button like why they don't need to they'll be okay if you make them wait 10 minutes they'll be okay it'll be fine yeah so this is what near is doing in addition to things like manually blocking and manually having the blacklist and having

32:38the exposure they're also doing things that are just so freaking obvious but that most systems they'll don't do right which is like this more behavioral anomaly detection stuff I think it's super cool obviously Twitter in there anything it was them is like that's a stupid bad your evil was it thread guy thread guy that came out with like uh nearest this isn't permissionless I was like who paid him to do that there's no way that came up yeah I think people just don't have it I don't believe for a second by the way we have to go to ad break but I think people just don't really like think deeply about this stuff I'll also say for anyone watching this right now who is interacting with this on Twitter and especially the near stuff if there's someone bitching right now about being frozen they are almost certainly a money laundering there's like four of them bitching right now that I personally have traced their funds so being very careful defending them I mean it's always like so funny the worst customer service people that you will ever deal with are

33:45scammers and fucking like they they will pretend to be the most like innocent victim of this horrible thing that you've done because the incentives are there right for them to do it they'll be on Twitter being like I can't believe that this deep by protocol has done this thing to me I'm a good and then like you literally look up the address and it's like blood diamonds dotty blood diamonds dotty yeah this one's literally like fucking people smuggling dotty like yeah like like dprk forever dotty like and you're like bro like why would I want to interact with you like you're like what are you doing over there anyway all right let's go to ads let's go to ads then we can come back and we can talk some more about some different stuff AI agents and yes let's do it all right cool 540 million dollars that's how much concentrated liquidity set idle and a given week in the first half of this year about 30% of the defi tvl if you're wondering that's according

34:50to doon research commissioned by one inch but there's a solution one inch aqua is the new shared liquidity platform it lets LPs back multiple positions with the same token balance and keep their tokens in their wallet till a swap comes why does that help because LPs don't have to split their tokens across positions they can cover more market conditions and pairs with their full balance that means more activity across deeper liquidity see how it works at one inch dot com slash aqua remember that providing liquidity carries risk and fees aren't guaranteed if you like this show there's another one from our network you should be listening to bits and bips is our twice weekly market show on Mondays rom allawalia austin Campbell and Chris Perkins chat about where crypto and macro collide it's sharp it's fast and it has its own channel search bits plus sign bips and subscribe one more thing we've got a listener survey open it takes just a few minutes it's anonymous and it changes what we make next use the QR code on screen or go to unchainedcrypto.com slash

35:57link is in the show notes all right so a little bit of a pivot from crypto hacks to the end times as I've begun calling it we are now going through something like thousands or tens of thousands of incidents that open AI and anthropic are investigating where agents at different times in different sandboxes in different testing environments in different whatever probably in different user machines have gone rogue and started doing crazy shit and hacking outside systems we saw google putting their hand up being like our agent is not retarded it also hacks things like it's becoming a bit of a batch of honor how many systems your agents have hacked and then you know we have we have these like a obliterate of models as well like glem 5.3 like ultra hack or whatever the hell they're calling it

37:04where it just like hacks everything inside and and it seems kind of crazy that the this is all against the backdrop of their preparing for these gigantic IPOs like our agents are hyping everyone and like the agents are great don't give me wrong right like I'm actually almost like I don't even care like let them hack things it's just a cost of doing business at this point but it you know you've got like we talked about this last week then bests and just coming up and like hey just to heads up like if your own agents that you built running in your own hardware start hacking people you will be held responsible for it again it's weird got to be delivering that message it's weird message to the need to deliver and yet here we are right and and again against that backdrop of like just absolute sheer insanity and no fucking checks and balances

38:06add all inside of these startups they're like also we're gonna fucking IPO at $2 trillion and does it make it more like if if I have 30,000 agents that have escaped versus only 10,000 agents does my IPO price go up or down yeah it's crazy the incentives are so interesting because it's like the people who are giving them money in the IPO are like also the people the more money you have the more of a target you are for these agents like they will they will hack your systems like the more money you have to figure the system you have the more fun they're gonna have hack so it's just like the most hilarious thing where like you have these giant you know soft banks like here's $500 billion or whatever an agent so like thank you we now have more friends to hack you with yeah I count to I count to contradictory opinions and the true about this one is I believe that these agents are far more dangerous than these companies are saying that's far more dangerous than

39:11that so I don't think that one side I don't think that they're making this bigger than it really is but what what I don't agree too much with is this thing that showing that your company's more dangerous than the other one is gonna make your company more valuable I don't know about that my what I think now many people are talking about this so it's I don't think it's new is that what they want to say is hey AI is dangerous you need to regulate this you need to prohibit open source models they want to go they want to go against open source models for sure and to say hey we need to regulate we need to put garbage here we die open AI and traffic and two or three ones we are good regulator the rest your facts you you would not be able to grow but you can't stop that will make their IPO go up if they can yes that would sort of small that that will make a valuable unless they also get nerfed right like you've been less anthropic is like go regularly everyone and then the

40:16US government's like done and also like nationalized anthropic as they do it right maybe a bit like but but just just like to be clear right like there's no way there's no there's no path now right we are we are I would say over the event horizon right of their the the open source models are now so good and they exist the software is out there it's open source open weights it's running on people's machines you can't put that genie back in the bottle right and we have smart enough open source models that we are starting to see a proliferation of different approaches to building training tuning models I I think even if the labs disappear even if open AI and anthropic disappeared were nuked from space I think that it sets us back but I don't think that it's like some great reset and we lose the ability to build and train these models I think that we will

41:20discover new ways to train on on weaker hardware to train you know more efficiently etc. Well I think that there's a question of where that those models gonna run because Embedia is going full full on open source models why because they don't they want each human in the planet to have the GPU at home GB GB 300 and every household man like exactly open AI and anthropic do not want that at all no way I think that the deal is is around there and but it's so good because they also need an Nvidia to train their own models yes and video wins in any in any scenario in video wins yeah yeah yeah totally yeah and these cheaper models are trained on the frontier model so if the frontier models go away things will slow down yes like it's not just like okay frontier models go away and now deep-team catches up I don't think

42:23that would probably but sorry my my my my point that I was making and maybe like challenge this if you disagree is like GLM deep-seek like you know even the latest muse models are smart enough now and in enough hands and can be run cheaply enough on existing hardware that is already out in the world even if you said Apple's no loud ship of 512 you know M5 max you know studio anymore right there's enough of them out there there's enough cracked autos that are working on this that like actually this would create like even more proliferation of intelligence because people will find new ways to get more efficiency out because they want more intelligence right like at the moment the the state of the artist concentrated in like a couple of labs right if the frontier of intelligence bypasses those labs if the labs were stopped or slowed down or whatever then it only accelerates

43:26faster right so I think you would get a blip in terms of like progress for maybe six months or something but after that it just accelerates even more because it's not as concentrated challenge matter if you disagree with that but like that's that like I strongly believe that we are on a recursive self-improvement loop now that we cannot get off so for me like the opus 4.5 was the moment where like okay I can give this thing a thing and it's like dev shop what was the moment for you with these open source models wait at what point did you say like we are on this path now with gila 5.3 which was only like a month ago or something is that right? yeah it was a couple months ago okay wait have you but can have you is that wait is this the one that they just wrote the article about this is the obliterated one that's like the ultra offense psycho one that like hacks things like crazily right remember remember open AI was like oh we had a model that was like two biased towards action and we had to kill it because it was like trying it

44:29like this is that right like these guys have like fine-tuned glam to make it even more offensive right like even more offensive capability I'm actually I literally am in the process of getting that running on my max studio because I have my red team that I ran on like regular glam 5.3 the one that found like the eight fucking smart contract bugs in the star goals synthetic smart contract corpus right and I had a question my mind like you know if you had mythos if you had like Astra you know unrestrained or whatever like would it have found more glam 5.3 this more offensive model I suspect we'll find more bugs it's it's just more aggressive and tries to chain exploits together more aggressively etc etc so I'm gonna run that rerun I've got the work for now so I just rerun this is this is the one where yesterday anthropic publishes article that

45:32basically resolution advertised for glam 5.3 there's basically like he nerfed ourselves guys but this model is unnerved and then they like we have a bunch of graphs and yeah and someone in another child that I'm in literally was like this like the best out for open source models that I've ever heard like why are they doing this uh it's yeah it's glam 5.3 like you know uh deep seek deep seek um 4.1 flash uh they deep seek claim that it was better than pro it's cheaper like it's it's on the like Brito frontier it's better I would argue because like it's cheaper per task or whatever but its judgment is worse like it's not going to be chaining together so like deep seek I 4.1 flash I think is a step back um Kimmy is like good at like fucking drawing pictures it's very retarded it like actually doing hard stuff um like it's really good at drawing pictures like they have their internet it's like very art students vibe right um but like don't get it to do

46:36math uh Muse is still really dumb but like it's it's making progress like it can fucking pick up your laundry but like I wouldn't again I wouldn't get it to try and solve a millennium I mean that's really the big solution if I can have a robot doing my laundry I'm I'm gonna have a much happier house like I'm waiting for this like by Christmas like Christmas I want a robot like do you think it's gonna happen I'm ready I think we're close okay the question with with robots for real this is not a joke is would you have like the Tesla robot.com if that shit can be hacked and they can go on kill you at night like for real that that we happen that we haven't for sure yeah it's pretty scary hello and and even like remote operators right not just like a bad actor but even like there's good actors inside this thing walking around my house right now I don't know I don't know about that but also holding my laundry is high on the list yeah okay so they just have to like take a battery out at night right yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah the problem they have is been moving

47:42around part like they can sit in the corner in a contain little space and fold laundry that's fine like oh because they're really well it contains they they do so well when we contain them they never break out of our containment that's what I mean you can't keep it legs or wheels or anything though like that would be insane like that you know all right there in the room we could keep it in the laundry room there's not too much sense of reinforced basement laundry room the light yeah yeah you're you're straight you're going straight to the gulag if they buy that you've been locking robots in your basement man can you imagine right explain this to the police can I don't go down to your room you'll be explaining it to your super intelligent overlords and like so so maybe one before we before we talk about Vitalik and the 2030 road map which I really want to get to the other thing that was interesting about this is you know this does feel like

48:48somewhat of a return to public markets are call it like yolo upside potential right there's a there's a long long history of like public markets and private markets are kind of reversed and you know all of the gains happen in private markets it used to be that you know Google IPOs and they do a hundred X right Amazon IPOs they do a hundred X like post IPO right like these these companies would launch early and often and it was five risk and you know there's a lot of upside and then over the course of like 20 years basically all the upside was taken out and you it all went to vcs whatever it's interesting because you know now we're saying like anthropic you can get access to it early they're losing insane amounts of money is a super high risk and people like oh don't give that to retail like that's a bad deal and it's like you can't have it both

49:50ways right like either this is a highly speculative thing that's going to be worth 50 trillion and can do a 50 X on you know on market after the IPO or you wanted to stay with vcs and let vcs fund it forever and capture all the gains you got to make a decision when you thread guy you were talking about thread guy earlier he knows what it's going to do they're going to go out what is yeah I don't know man but like genuinely like like actually having having people IPO when they're losing a fuckload of money because they need more money and retail is going to give it to them and take the risk is the game that is the fucking point of an IPO like now you know like 40 2 billions lot of money to lose just saying like I don't know I don't know man it feels pretty crazy but like someone has to bear the cost of this risk this is a tradeoff this is a trade the tradeoff space is you either have speculative high risk companies IPOing because they need

50:52money that only the public markets can provide these hyper scalers and there's a lot of upsides left for the retail markets to juice right or you fund them until they're completely you know safe and low risk and there's no upside you got you had kind of both you got to pick one I don't think we're at the safe low risk stage yet but that's my point but we have been but that's my point we have been for the last 15 years every single IPO except for the spack boom ignore the spack boom right every single IPO all the juice have been squeezed out of it and the VCs had collected it and then you're left with a 2x maybe if you're lucky over a five years or 3x or whatever the hell the thing was right you know it's shifted a little bit in the last few years but like this is like a highly speculative thing something that's losing $4.2 billion a year can go bankrupt you can lose all your money that it's not been the classic IPO for the last decade or so right like there

51:58was no chance that anything that got to IPO was going to go bankrupt and they just closed it could end humanity too I mean there's just a bonus that's a cherry on top man that's a cherry on top that's a pump okay I mean this so what are the realistic we what are the options for these labs because they're massively I mean the price is the only option there's no one who can give them enough money except for retail the only price they can get them the amount of money they need is to go public on the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange that's it right so as the society we need to decide do we think this is a good thing that these hyper scalers need so much money that they're so risky that there is a lot of upside left when they hit the market and that that risk the trade-off space is that they could go bankrupt and be worth nothing and a bunch of retail people could lose $2 trillion are we willing to take that risk for the chance to give a bunch of retail people the

53:01chance to make $20 trillion my heart take is yes absolute fuck yeah like let's go right like let's go like I think the whole point of markets I mean it's all I mean it should have been before though right before like arguably before is even too early right like if this thing is real if this thing is real it's only worth two trillion it's only two trillion man it's only two trillion it can go to 20 trillion if it can go to 20 trillion then there's still plenty of upside right the the bad thing would be if I poked it three trillion and that was its max that it could ever get to and now you're just taking all the risk and putting on retail for no upside there has to be a trade here hold on I'm looking at the graph 18 months ago the valuation and theropic valuation was 62 billion 18 months ago yeah so it went from 62 billion to 2 trillion if they had gone public I don't know at any point between 62 billion and 2 trillion I feel it better for sure would be better but just to be

54:07clear the status quo is not that the status quo is right that VCs juice 100% of the upside of any company we're saying there's still upside left and the reason why you know those up that is because they're still losing fuck loads of money if they were throwing off cash there would be no upside left because now you can value them as a you know cash flow generating fucking discounted model right versus a speculative enterprise the good end humanity which has a lot more upside to it so then yeah no go go Pablo you say I think it's a very very good idea to the IPO I think that the thing of losing money is a traditional thing that every technology company that is today super super big has been doing and also I don't agree too much we like private funds squeeze a lot before the IPO's but then if we check meta Google Amazon and lots of other companies

55:12if you bought the IPO you did a huge amount of money but dude those guys went public like you know we're talking 15 years ago yeah we haven't had like if you look at the the returns over the last 15 years most of the returns has come from those guys that IPO'd a long time ago in fairness right of lost to be honest right yeah but you know when when we say most we're talking like a 3x right not a 50x or 100x or something like okay so like for example Facebook I go'd at 100 billion right yeah then when Facebook got it's done at 20x or something right over 15 what 15 years 10 years that's a good return I take that's fine but so would you really think that I mean even if if it has 10 15 years you have to go from 2 trillion to 20 yeah I think they wait I think that they will I think this company will be I think this company will be ultra mega

56:15profitable like yeah the price that we are paying today for or AI is nothing is basically you know it's super super super subsidized how how I don't know how how much money your guys is spending in AI monthly but would you spend 10x that to do the same work that you're doing today I will totally no no I would change I would change how I do things a little bit I would like and I have right to to get more efficient because there was a period where we were spending a couple underground a month right and and you know that was not sustainable like it would have been sustainable if that was generating revenue if that was you know if if we could attribute that spend to like you know incremental revenue fuck yeah of course right now we didn't have sufficient revenue to be able to do that but if you were a revenue generating entity that could reduce your your your cost

57:17of all packs or whatever by like 20 30% by spending by giving a bunch of money to the author I'll click of course you do that you know that that praise by Jeff Wetzos your your margins by your opportunity right so I think that yeah in the in the midterm this organizations will start saying okay I know the margin of this industry I know how that margin is changing because of our tool we're gonna capture that it's gonna be far more expensive and it's gonna they're gonna capture value like crazy I think that too much maybe too much maybe they will become too big I mean it's gonna be fun don't worry man they're gonna end humanity so it's gonna be fun okay whenever you guys are like it's fine don't worry but I will probably you're saying we tell we'll profit it is risky but it's the end user who's going to lose out because the subsidies are going to be less and less and you're gonna have to change the way you're operating right like we're in the we're in the heyday right now where our subsidies subsidies are working and we're able to do a ton of stuff for not very much but dude they're about to give you a solid 5.6 for free

58:26with your subscription unlimited usage like that's fucking wild soul 5.6 was the best guy like three months ago if you told me that I could even talk to him I would be so happy just even letting me have one conversation with that guy I was like oh my god this guy is amazing right now you're gonna tell me that I have unlimited access to it on tap like like you know to your point Pablo the costs of this stuff will come down and and the value that it is capturing will go up as we get better at deploying it right like right now we're still fucking hard so many slots canons oh dude it's crazy like as we get better and more efficient at deploying this intelligence into our shit it's the margins will just go astronomical but I mean the the cost maybe for and let's say for and traffic right there cause we'll maybe go down but let's make it simple the monthly subscription is super cheap today it will be far more expensive yeah I hope if you said if you said if you say

59:31and you know open AI has like explain your t-bow right if you if you follow him on x has like explicitly said the quiet part out loud right he is like the goal for us is that we get every single company to have a subscription for every single user maybe it's a thousand dollars whatever but it gives them effectively unlimited capacity and we don't need to worry about the delta between the subsidized subscription costs and API costs right you won't even need to think about it it will just be the same right and if you get to that point where you know like every single employee in the world has a thousand dollar a month fucking open AI subscription that's a very profitable business like what I've been like a lot of money so for what it's worth as we've talked about this before I've noticed that I'm letting my subscription just run my 200s just run even though like for the last week I haven't I haven't been doing chicks I've just been tracing bigot literally I'm

1:00:31I've been doing I've buried some shit like emails shit you know what I mean but I'm still just letting it run because it's like it's worth it it's not worth because before like they're fun to go even I was the people you use it right like the hour that you use that it's worth the $21 right exactly like use of a one hour and you're getting value but I think we talked about this like six months ago where I was like every week I was like switching you're switching the off yeah yeah switching them off and up and down and but at some point you stop when it becomes valuable enough and it becomes part of your daily routine enough then you just keep it on and companies will do this individuals will do this I've noticed I'm doing it as well and that is part of why the subscription models work historically in other industries it hasn't worked here with AI yet it might be again you're talking about like the Delta it might be that the Delta okay let me tell you how massive the Delta is right this is how fucking insane it is so yesterday sorry two days ago

1:01:35I was testing GPT live right so I put an API key in because I mainly use codec subs right but I've got API access and and we actually bought a bunch of API credits ages ago so we're gonna like 100K API credits just sitting there that I know I need to use right so I'm using GPT live and I have like call it a hundred agents running right and somehow in my fucking harness the switch got flipped from API from from codec sub API in the space of 90 minutes it's been $400 on the API in 90 minutes it could be more you could be more than that dude it could be what but like yeah but that was like just so if you think about that that subscription cost $200 right that would have easily covered all of that in 90 minutes I blew through that and like then some maybe two subscriptions worth right the Delta is still too hot right any any enterprise that's paying API rates is not going to be able to

1:02:38use this the way that we are using it now right where you just don't even worry about it but as it they compress right you get you get an enterprise that's on a thousand dollar a month subscription with effectively unlimited 5.6 or soon 6.0 you know aster and and Saul or whatever that will shift how enterprises use AI and they will all of a sudden go oh we can throw this and this and this and this and it will change the way the enterprises work completely we're the reason why we're not seeing that yet is because if you're using aster and it costs you a thousand dollars an hour like yeah call your lawyer it's going to be cheaper to get your lawyer to fucking write the thing than aster right but like if it gets to the point where it's 5 cents an hour then all of a sudden your behavior will change right so for enterprises their behavior can't change because the cost is still too high so but it's not going to happen because we'll all be dead by the time they get their shit together so it's fine at the same time at the same time one more thing I see that I see lots a lot of people

1:03:44saying yeah I build this with this mold and this harness and I optimize this this this and lots of stuff and 99% of people are not building something useful or are not making money they're just making stuff I love the fact like my thing for example I I do not code right so I was always the idea guy in circles right and when you have the idea what do you need the guy that goes oh I need my sit yo and you need to go for that guy and convince him that that that is dead completely so for the idea guys it's good so today I think that the two most important skills are ideas and be able to sell but lots of people are lacking that they are just building stuff that nobody needs right and nobody goes yeah okay what do we really nail there so I think that eventually those five will stop consuming too right agreed agreed but you know let's say society now has 10,000 people that previously weren't engineers right and like 9,990 of them are building fucking

1:04:50nonsense slop that no one cares about but 10 of them build something useful we are still better off we're like those like we can throw idiots slop cannons at things right and you just need one to actually build something useful for it to pay back all of it right so and you can build your stupid ideas and get them out of a way too this is another thing where it's yeah idea guy summer means that you can keep throwing things at the wall and it's not that expensive you can have five or six ideas going at once trying to build something like I got 30 ideas like I got to get through these things and get to the other side and realize it was done right and that would have been six months and raising money and whatever else it's it's a much different game though all right let's talk let's let's pivot back to crypto um uh Vitalik uh I don't know the obsession with 2030 with Ethereum why why you guys will obsess with 2030 first of all we're not even gonna make it to 2030 so I don't know why the fuck you guys do that like what are you doing over there at the EF why is like you're getting

1:05:55like a 2030 tattoo what are you guys doing like genuinely like it's I'm there's not even trolling like why is 2030 such a fucking thing such a meme there's like a fucking there's a clanker somewhere in the EF fucking basement that's like plotting world domination by 2030 and this is all of one big silence that's that okay so so Vitalik uh writes his essay which which gather a bunch of stuff from a bunch of different places a bunch of different people uh ideas and things about the future of Ethereum and like can I this is the most fucking bullish thing that I've read about Ethereum in a long time and I've read a lot of things about Ethereum and I'm I'm like it you look at this and you go if this thing existed why else would you why would you use anything else if this system were to pop into existence tomorrow it would dominate all like outside of Bitcoin and like the

1:07:00weird Bitcoin E Colt E stuff right I can't see any smart contract system that would be able to compete with this why you would build an L2 why you would build a corp O chain why you would build a stable coin chain like if this thing existed it clearly dominates technically operationally like every possible thing that exists it's fucking I could not be more bullish the question is is like how achievable is it in what time frame right um and and the the thing that I think that maybe gets me the most excited about it is that the world that we live in today and I've said this on the show before right like you couldn't have even proposed this it would be fanciful to propose building this by 2030 because it's like three four people in the world that are smart enough to actually do this shit and like they work hard I'm sure Austin like you're gonna not appreciate this like I'm sure they work hard but like not hard enough man like for how important

1:08:00this shit is like they're clearly taking too many vacations and it takes way too long to do it but now we don't have to rely on those three guys there's like a 300 million fucking clankers that are able to write this shit right and so all you need is the ideas the to conceive of the ideas and it will it will be built right so like the more aspirational and the more insane and moon mathy and fucking crazy snarks and fossil and whatever like throws many fucking acronyms and terms as you can at me because the clankers love that shit and so it just feels like very clanker coded and if clankers are gonna be building this thing um it feels achievable and if it's achieved it feels it feels insane if we had this technology to be clear it was always achievable like if theorem has wicked smart people how's from day one like and the yeah especially right the issue

1:09:02has never been whether theoretically the EF for the teams of the people could do something it's always been this for like self-referential meta like is this the right thing should we build this how do we coordinate around building this instead of just like balls the wall building it right um and if clankers or if culture shift within the EF if leaning it down if the Vitalik just publishing I say whatever I don't care how the EF um and I keep saying EF but to be clear like it's deeply deeply embedded in a theorem culture like consensus metamass also has the same exact problem a lot of times right yeah it's it's it's like you want to be considerate and you want everyone to be nice and happy and kind to each other and you want to build the right things and well well at the end of the day though I think at some point you have to like rip the bandit off and

1:10:03just sit and poke and build it just ship the good thing is like it don't care they're they're sitting there like give me more stuff to build right they're not war like thinking about communism or like weird shit or like trying to grow forest or whatever they're just like I just want to write good code man that's all they want to do yeah there's one to write good code the harder the code is the more excited they are to write it like and so like it just again it feels like the the confluence of like the potential for a theorem how aspirational the technology is and the tools that now exist are like coming together and the sad thing is it's like we're going to be just two years too late because we'll all be dead by 2028 and 2020 2020 on 2030 and not gonna happen like we're so close we're so close they'll still be doing laundry they'll just kill all the people in the house yeah often they'll be doing laundry they'll never stop doing laundry they'll be like folding shirts for a thousand years while like the corpses of the people in the houses

1:11:08are decaying so okay so man I don't I don't know where to go so I don't think that the researchers are going on vacation a lot I'm Joe and it's not like all super kumaia it's like how do we figure out how to correctly implement this mechanism okay and I think 2027 2028's a little slower because it's more human but then I think from there it does rip because it is for at the point where like we have super intelligence and it can implement an EIP in a weekend and this and this is the thing right like the the the the thing that are closed it's oh sorry and then you can go it's like part of it is the decision that the researchers and the doubts like are going to do like whoever is going to do this the doubts the AI the researchers whatever we're gonna do this this is that we're gonna do it and then once you accept that once you take the endless discussions off the people it's totally possible and it's probably possible on a faster timeline I think the majority of

1:12:09time the EF and the related orgs spend is discussing on weather or not something should be implemented and then if it should be implemented I think oh my god the weeds dude the weeds are so I think it's how I think I don't think it's weather or not I think it's they know this needs to happen it's like how is what is the best way to do that and that's it's very in the weeds but he but why all this with like the frame transactions yeah yeah yeah I don't know if I agree with that this is the thing the the cost I know I've seen this in in my own team right the cost of being wrong previously was incredibly high right psychologically like from a from a direct cost perspective like getting 20 30 50 people in a room every day to do things is an extremely expensive endeavor right then you have like all of the coordination and the psychology of the people

1:13:13if 50 people spend three months doing a thing and it turns out to be wrong there's a high cost to that like emotional costs like and and you know that gets fucking baked in to organizations over time right so the more aspirational the thing you are doing the more uncertain it is the more fear you will feel whether you want to feel fear or not right the more fear you will feel if you're wrong and hence why you get into these naval gazing loops of like let's be really certain before we start that this is the conclusion or whatever and this is why I say like the the harder the thing that you're trying to do the more amenable it is to super intelligence and so the thing that you want to be bullish on is the crazy aspirational things that were almost unachievable in a humans system and we know that they're almost unachievable in a human system because it's only through sheer brute force that the theorem has even existed right like I make jokes about a theorem and and how you know

1:14:18vacations whatever a communism and stuff but like it exists today through sheer force of will right like it's not a thing that just emerges from the world right like it's a really hard thing to make exist and it's and it's taken a long time and it's been really inefficient but it exists and we should be very happy for it um part of that is because of how aspirational it is right but we now suddenly have tools that the more aspirational you are the better the thing is the easier it is to do right um and and the more exciting it is to do and the more resources etc etc and so all the sudden this like weird equilibrium that we had where like hard things were really hard hard things now actually become easier and a theorem is one of the hardest things and it's going to become easier and it's just like that's so exciting for the world right that like what is the point of super intelligence if it doesn't build you something like whatever the fuck this new ethereum is right

1:15:21ethereum something i don't know but like cryptographic world computer man but dude like if if if super intelligence is the if the purpose of super intelligence is to build you like fucking room temperature superconductors and ethereum three oh man take me back then then like yes i made like then great let's do that right um because humans are not good at building room temperature superconductors like if they like we've been sitting here fucking banging rocks together for 10,000 years we haven't landed right like let's give the clankers a chance and see if they can do it yeah maybe a question here is like the 2027 2028 timeline feels very human and then the post 2028 feels bored like that's when the machines start to really rip on this stuff like maybe they start early maybe during this transition period some of these things start to become easier and easier sooner and things actually speed up sooner they i think they will well and i think also i think i i'm such a deep

1:16:24believer in this i think the culture of of today and in ethereum is especially in the eF but also other the fety type orgs who have been in ethereum forever is this obsession with making sure that you get it right and i don't want to discount that i don't want to say like you can get it wrong like yeah sometimes like you don't want to break the blockchain for example right there are hard lines in the sand however you can actually for say 90% of what's being built not shipped right but like built you can build playing faster and when you get into this culture of like we're actually going to build and test is low like clankers don't cry yeah and their shit doesn't work off just spending a month on it and then you can just you can yes but then you can get like better answer so like one thing that i see a lot on when when get in this stuck cycle of just talking about things and discussing things and debating things it's all theoretical right and so you have a

1:17:28theoretical argument against a theoretical argument and there's two theoretical people arguing about what theoretically could be true in the theoretical culture and you start fucking arguing about epistemology and can you even know things and like it devolves into fucking insanity can we define and by the way this like the Ethereum's like favorite we needed to find these words so that we can have a discussion and a debate about what we're about to talk about and i'm like oh my god i can 54 of hosts later on definitions okay can we actually argue the thing no okay you can build things and then you can stop operating in this theoretical land right and you can say we have the answer to this now this like this does this you can simulate it against the real blockchain you can simulate it in whatever environments you want very very quickly i mean you get those answers very quickly and when you start to see that culture shift in the people who are making the decisions and having the debates it changes everything right and it doesn't mean that you have to ship like irresponsibly it just means that your entire way of operating instead of debating the theoretical

1:18:33endlessly move into the realm of the real and then you operate on the poor data on facts you know you start you it's not it's not a field it's not those awful anymore right and like if the EF can get to that point and start like actually just shipping and operating on like the hard facts and saying we want to achieve this and then saying like this achieves this dude especially with AI like the sky's the limit it's gonna be right sorry yeah i have a question for you guys so do you think that the problem or challenge for Ethereum is a technical challenge because i don't think that the that the that the that the the the the challenges technical no but i think that it's i think that it's a i think that it's a commercial challenge it's like we want faster vlogs privacy and this and this and that and but who is solving a real use case that someone has a burning with today like who's doing that i honestly my my hot take is a theorem has never

1:19:38been about that and it actually doesn't matter if a theorem is the best place to do your weird moon math computations it will solve itself and i know that's like a very hand wavy thing i'm a very commercial guy the thing that has been frustrating with me is like not you know i think that theorem shouldn't go out of their way to like stop people from doing commercial things on the chain i do have a problem with that outside of that though i don't think they need to promote it people will use a technology to do commercial things like it's fine of the if saying please don't do d5 you still have a lot of d5 right so like you know there's there's uh i'm sorry i got it myself like but uh but but like you know a thing a technology will be used for what it's used for right and if you build the best technology it will get used and so i don't think it's the efs problem to say like if they build this fucking thing i promise you people will build some cool

1:20:41shit on it they just will it'll be amazing um so that's their job their job is to build the layer right like the thing yeah i think though biggest i think a lot of people are like oh a theorem isn't good enough and so that's why people or a theorem didn't cater to app developers so that's why there's no apps no no people didn't build apps on a theorem because it was perceived by the market to be um not low expensive and and right and did not have incentive programs like all of the altos and all l one's had um and it was unclear there was not a lot of confidence in the future like faith there's faith faith comes in at least things right yeah i want to buy some art is important yeah and so on people if you ask yourself like what why did so and so app go okay look if you're an x coinbase employee you build one base yeah but you know what you can distort you can distort the market right with incentives and shit for a while but ultimately it will fail

1:21:46right like people will go back to the place that is the best place to do things because that is the most incentive compatible thing to do right and so yeah fine you take your 10,000 all a $50,000 $2 million dollar grant to go and build on apptiles or whatever the fuck it is right but eventually you will come back to a theorem and you'll build your shit there if it is the best place to build shit like they want you to build it's like it's easy and cheap to build on a theory now so let's wrap it up here this is a great show thank you Pablo for joining us we have to we'll have to have you back on some time do you? yeah yeah thank you for inviting me yeah yeah that's good fun yeah that's good fun nothing you hear on uneasy money is financial advice we're just three builders talking about what's happening on chain and we want you to always do your own research before aping it you can find all out of splotures at unchainedcrypt.com slash uneasy money

1:23:03my so