Trump-Xi summit: Did they both win?

0:00Today we have come to another historic juncture for China-US relations. The President Trump has pledged to make America great again and led the American people in making significant strides. China is committed to achieving great national rejuvenation and Chinese modernization has kept breaking new ground. These two girls are both ambitious and can surely be mutually reinforcing. As the leaders of our two nations, President Xi and I both understand that we represent different systems but the ties between our people endure and we've never gotten along better.

1:11But a lot has changed since the leaders last met in May. China's global trade surplus is growing. The U.S. won Iran pushing up energy prices and the cost of living for Americans. Perhaps President Xi had more room to drive a harder bargain on those three T's, trade, Taiwan and tech, namely the AI race. I'm Jenavivu and together in Washington, D.C., our correspondent is a Livesh Young and Nick Harper who have been following the summit, live Nick, two days of ceremony and spectacle. And you've had the chance to watch both leaders up close. Now, let's start up with your gut reaction after two days as a rap. Are you more reassured or more unsettled after the rap and give me your lightning round of takeaways? Nick, why did you go first? I would have to say this has been all about style over substance. The pageantry involved over the last few days has been immense. We haven't seen something like this from the Trump White House. Three days of state visit with red carpets galore here there and everywhere.

2:18He has really put on a show for President Xi determined it would seem to impress him to show him the best of Washington and really to maintain that good relationship. I think even the weather is helping. It's really stunning how it may be emblematic of the warm relations that the true sides are keen to project. But I think Jen was asking for what our vibe check was and I think my answer would be that you know you would feel more reassured looking at how ties are in the short term. But the longer term perhaps is still a little bit uncertain. What struck me here was really how intentional both sides have been in wanting to portray how successful or not. This is a wonderful, successful or warm this visit has been and Mr. Trump personally you know going to the airport to receive the Chinese leader, the huge military welcome the state dinner. And Beijing also brought the softer touches as well. I mean two pandas for Atlanta and then you're talking about you know inviting 100,000 young Americans to China over five years.

3:20And I want to point out as well that for China they are marking the mid autumn festival today and over the cause of the state visit. And you know, President Xi also talking at the state dinner about the friendship and people to people ties. But you know one of the phrases that has really stood out we were talking about this is constructive strategic stability and that has come at every single opening remark or statement by the Chinese president. And it's almost like diplomatic jargon, but I think it's becoming very clear that this is about managing the relationship. Yes, China is saying we are going to compete, but how can we manage the differences so that it doesn't destabilize or blow up everything that China and the US have going on individually. Yeah, that maintain maintain maintenance of the relationship I think has been really important and just from a vibe check point of view. I think Donald Trump has really been trying to impress the Chinese leader as well.

4:21There was this fun moment in amongst all the choreography that you would imagine would come with a state visit. This has been months and months in the planning. There seemed to be something of an unscripted moment as it were Donald Trump taking presidency out to his new helipad to show him Marine one, his helicopter. It seemed like he was showing off his boys toys showing the Chinese leader something that he was very impressed with and he wanted the Chinese leader to be very impressed with as well. There was a social media clip off a presidency giving the thumbs up to that I wrote that it's going around. Yeah, it was a nice moment of levity I think in amongst all of that very choreographed idea of trying to maintain relations. And to your point, Olivia, it is a mid-autumn festival and that's an important event in the Chinese lunar calendar. Second only to the lunar new year. So the fact that they're holding this meeting now is not, I think the symbolism is not lost. It's about harmony, it's about unity. I think that could be the messaging that could be putting forth.

5:26But another source of tension for US-China relations is artificial intelligence. Now Mr. Trump is calling it super intelligence and he has said, quote, whoever wins AI wins. Yet just before this summit, both sides were discussing a mechanism to alert each other if an AI incident threatens national security. So what are we talking about? Are we looking at both cooperation and competition at the same time? Yeah, absolutely. I think it's quite clear that we're talking about competition and cooperation. I think that's what makes this whole discussion around artificial intelligence really interesting and I was just listening to a briefing with some analysts a while ago. And they are saying the expectation is that perhaps AI could become the most intense arena of US-China competition moving forward because neither country wants to come in second in this AI race. And I mean, we were also talking earlier on in the office about how this competition looks very different in China and the US and China.

6:34So what really strikes you is how there's so much emphasis on deployment. You see humanoid being deployed at robotic games and at convenience stores, but it's quite different here in the US. I mean, it's completely different. I think that's why Donald Trump is really trying to rebrand AI calling it super intelligence, trying to make it more palatable in many ways. Because here in the US, you just don't see those humanoid robots. You don't go to the coffee shop and have a robot serve you. You just don't see that in daily life. And I think many Americans just don't have that interaction and therefore just aren't used to AI in the way that perhaps the Chinese public are. So I think there is that rebranding exercise trying to make it more common here in the US. But I think in many ways it shows that the US is behind the curve on AI in day-to-day life. I mean, there's a lot of focus on large language models, so different focuss as well, perhaps. But I mean, when you listen to the two leaders, President Trump talks about winning and presidency also saying that there's absolutely no intention of China slowing down its AI drive.

7:42But the language that presidency here used was quite interesting to me. He did say that China and the US may compete, but they may cooperate even more. And he talks about recent benefits and preventing this use, keeping AI under human control. And Beijing also has talked about AI being a public good. So to me, there's a bit of a paradox here. The harder the two sides race each other, the more they may need some sort of basic rules of engagement down the road. And that's where that proposed notification mechanism is going to be interesting. But I think it always comes down to the implementation. How is that going to work? Are they really going to pick up the phone if there is an AI incident related to national security? Yeah. I think it's just interesting to note. Excuse me, just how prominent this idea of AI has been in all of the interactions. It seems to have come up in the public remarks mentioned in some form or another. This is perhaps the first summit where it has been so central to discussions. There are those fears that have been talked about here in the US, but globally as well about the race and the deployment of AI.

8:52But I think we just haven't seen it discussed so prominently on a leader to lead level. And that makes it very different in this summit. Right. I mean, we're still talking about a race. We're still talking about competition. And when it comes to that, it always boils down to leverage on how to win. And I suppose that takes us to trade, which gives us perhaps the clearest test of who had leveraged now the term of truth, truth that was due to expire November 10th. Now that we have an extension, there's a two month extension. And the both sides have set up a so-called board of trade to help manage imports and exports while negotiations continue to try to reach a long-term agreement before January 10th. So looking at what Trump and see actually agreed here, are we looking at status quo or has one side or the other gained an edge? Well, I think just on the extension, purely the fact that it is a very short extension, just a couple of months, feels a little bit like more of a win for the US. For Donald Trump's perspective, it gets him passed the midterm elections on November 3rd.

10:01It moves it into the new year. At which point is Donald Trump going to play hardball? Is he going to decide, well, I've got passed the midterms, let's try and change the calculus on these discussions. There wasn't really a full-froated, well, let's push it a year into the future. Just getting it a couple of months ahead, it feels like that's a way to get it beyond the midterms and not much further than that. Yeah, I think from the Chinese side, I was speaking to some businesses in China, particularly a technology consultancy that helps international businesses, you know, set up and expand in China. And they were saying that, you know, yeah, two months is a bit short. They would be hoping for something a bit more permanent, especially given that stability affects investment decisions. But I think we also have to remember here that those two months and going till January covers two more meetings between President Trump and President C, President C himself confirming during that tea meeting here in the US that they are going to be meeting twice more once on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Xinjiang and China.

11:10And again, later in the year at the G20 in Miami, so I think that is pretty significant for the Chinese leader to be confirming that so early on because previously, even this summit wasn't confirmed till days before it actually did happen. So that perhaps gives us a signal of how both sides view this particular summit and we'll be looking at, you know, how that pans out in the next two months. Yeah, I also wanted to talk about that state dinner, which both of us have been discussing quite a bit in detail because I think it does give a rather interesting snapshot of where the relationship is. I mean, the menu, I'm going to refer to my notes here because it was quite diplomatic. It really was, and it sounded delicious. Yeah, it did. I mean, it was scallion oil with the stager, sesame crusted sea bass with bok choy and then white house honey in the dessert. And even this California sparkling wine had this historical connection to the Mao Nixon era opening. So I mean, that really kind of speaks of the kind of atmosphere that we have been talking about.

12:17But when relating to trade and the economic activity, we have to look at, you know, who was sitting around those tables. I mean, we were looking at that guest list, 134 names that the white house provided, but only 19 of them were from the Chinese delegation. And these were, you know, not business leaders, they were from government or, you know, diplomatic officials. And Nimo, America's tech establishment was very well represented. It was including the AI industry, ironically, the AI industry who themselves have been warning about the threat of AI that Donald Trump has called hoax. I think it's also worth noting that we have seen a reaction, a negative reaction from lawmakers here in the US in particular to that dinner because, as Olivia said, that that menu is very much showing the collaboration, the common ground between the two countries. But lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have said, well, look, why, why are we doing this? Why is the US president honoring the Chinese president in such a way? Why is this red carpet, this beautiful lavish dinner?

13:18He should not be placating president Xi. He should be, should be pressuring him on issues like Iran trying to get China to stop buying Iranian oil. And I think that backlash has been in the background, even though that lavish dinner very much was all about trying to show the common ground between the two countries. Yeah, I think even for the Chinese side, we had no idea as to who would be represented at that state dinner, even though there were earlier reports talking about potentially some very big Chinese bosses and big firms attending from BYD to CATL. But in the end, that didn't materialize. Perhaps that speaks of the kind of discussions or negotiations that had gone on behind the scenes that they didn't expect maybe many breakthroughs on the Chinese investment front. But and also to note that president Xi in some of his remarks did say that yes, China welcomes US companies to invest in China, but they also hope that Chinese companies will be treated fairly in the US.

14:20And so beyond all the lavish, you know, dishes and menu, I think it really points to the underlying tensions and differences between the two sides that still remain unresolved despite the good vibes. Right. So from red carpet then, let's go to red lines, right? We're talking about unresolved tensions. So we're talking about Taiwan, that's Beijing's red line. Days before the summit, the US, Japan and South Korea had again stress stability in the Taiwan Strait. But there are lots of questions that delayed US weapons sale to the island worth some $14 billion. Of course, this China's push to honor key provisions of the 1982 Communicate, named the US gradually reducing its arms sales to Taiwan and China's goal or reunification. It's a potential challenge to the so-called constructive strategic stability that both presidents had agreed to build when they met in May.

15:22Now, let's hear what one expert, you know, how he saw the negotiations this way. What I think is slightly new is that the United States and China have agreed on a framework for the relationship of constructive strategic stability. And as part of that framework, the Chinese are trying to suggest opposing Taiwan independence is a ticket to admission into this framework. And so implicitly, what I think the Chinese are saying is that by endorsing constructive strategic stability as the framework for the relationship, President Trump is implicitly accepting that the United States also opposes Taiwan independence, which is sort of a indirect back-door way of trying to get the United States into a position that China has been trying to push the United States into. And it's been trying to push the United States to take for a very long time. Right, Liv, your thoughts about House's analysis? I think what really struck me throughout these three days was how carefully the issue of Taiwan was handled publicly.

16:23We did here and see in Chinese state media, you know, what presidency's comments were on that. He didn't mention it in the ceremonial arrival remarks, but he did bring it up during those close talks that he had with the US President. And the Chinese read out was very clear, you know, that China was calling on the US to oppose Taiwan independence, to handle Taiwan cautiously, and you know, linked it also to that foundation of strategic cooperation. And I think this is really going to be a test of that strategic stability framework, you know, what's going to happen given that we know that $14 billion US dollar arms package is still pending here in the US. Well, that's it. And at what point does Donald Trump decide that he's going to green light that $14 billion? I mean, is it once President sees back in China? Is it once with through APEC? Is it once with through G20? He's not clear at some point in theory he has to go ahead and approve that, which will anger the Chinese.

17:26So perhaps he's waiting to get through this visit, but it seems a little stranger that that is still on pause. Yeah, right. Right. One last thing, guys. I personally always thought that presidency has one of the best poker faces in politics. Now, Mr. Trump, of course, owned the casinos, though we don't know if he's much of a poker player himself. So after everything that you've heard, what's the one card you think are the leaders still keeping closest to his chest? Do you want to go first? All right. I think this goes back to something that was shared with me after the talks took place. And, you know, Trump talks a lot about the personal relationship, how he's a great friend of presidency. And, you know, there is actually this mismatch because presidency, if you look into his remarks, he's talking a lot more at the state level, at the country level, as a major power. So maybe President Trump's Trump card is really President Trump himself. His belief that his personal relationship with the Chinese leader can allow him to make some room for things to happen.

18:41As for President Xi's card hidden card, I think it's really time, right? You know, coming into these talks, Beijing came in with greater confidence that it has weathered many different types of tensions, whether it's tariffs or export controls of American pressure. And it feels that it has been able to, in many ways, push ahead with innovation, with its technology push and AI drive. And so having stability is perhaps what Beijing is most after because it buys it time to be able to build up its capabilities or to reduce some of its vulnerabilities as well, especially when we are talking about those US export controls with advanced technology that it's so keen to have it removed. So that's my take, Nick. Well, I'm going to pick up on the poker analogy, Jen, because I think Donald Trump has been dealt a week at hand. I don't think that's anything to do with what we've seen in this summit.

19:41I think it comes back to again to that idea of time. Donald Trump is running out of time. He has two years, four months left in office. That's simply not the case for Presidency. There is that longevity that he has that Donald Trump doesn't have. But I think Donald Trump does have a wild card, which we might see get played after the midterms in November. If as the predictions are, he's going to lose the house. It'll make it very difficult for him to push through any domestic agenda. And normally that's the point in the final two years when we've got a lame duck president that we would see a president do more in the foreign policy sphere. So his wild card is unpredictability. Is that when he decided to lash out against China? Do we again see the anti-China rhetoric that we saw just even a couple of months ago, a prime time address in which he accused China of interfering in the 2020 election? All of that was very quiet during this visit. At what point does he decide to be unpredictable again and lash out against Beijing? And I really think actually the secret card here perhaps, or it's not secret at all, is this stability because you mentioned midterm elections for President Trump. But for Presidency himself, you'd, many analysts feel that having the stability here and managing the China-US relationship then allows Presidency to focus on his own domestic priorities, whether it's the Chinese economy or some very key communist party meetings that are coming up later this year.

21:02We're going to have the fifth plenum next year. We're going to have the five yearly party Congress where a leadership we shuffle as expected, Presidency expected to secure a fourth term in office, which is unprecedented. So managing the China-US relationship puts one uncertainty at bay and allows him to continue what he needs to do as he has these other priorities at hand. So, certainly, they both have their own domestic concerns that they have to worry about. In the near term, it was perhaps a case of getting through this summit, maintaining the stability so they can then focus on the domestic issues. So not so much about having a whole list of deliverables, but the meeting itself is bearable. Alright, well, whatever hand they're holding today neither gets to play alone, right? I mean, it is the game of cards. What one does next will change the other's play. Levia Nick, thanks for joining me.

22:02This has been the CNA CARASFORMEN Podcast. Thanks for joining me. Bye for now.