This Chart Exposed The AI Trade and Loves Bitcoin

One chart from Epoch AI shows the cost of AI falling about 47% a quarter since 2023, faster than any technology in history, and it exposes the math under the AI trade. Michael, Liam and Brian on why cheap intelligence competes away profit, and why Bitcoin is the scarce unit left.

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ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Eight major AI models shipped in two weeks, open-weight models now carry most of the tokens on Vercel's AI Gateway, Oracle invoked force majeure on a Stargate site, and Epoch AI finds the cost of a given level of performance has fallen about 47% a quarter since 2023. Michael's read is that AI will compete away the profits it touches, which makes the scarce unit in an abundant world the question that matters. From there the three of them work through Amazon blocking Meta's Muse while Shopify opens its merchants to it, Block bringing Bitcoin Lightning payments to x402 for AI agents, the Open USD stablecoin consortium, the CFTC's call to prepare for mass tokenization, Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock's model portfolios on Ondo, Binance's $100 million stake in Circle, and Apollo's warning that agents could set off a bank run. The single point of failure of the week is the roughly $350 million Bitget hack, linked to North Korea.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Eight AI models in two weeks: what the singularity looks like

03:53 - Open-weight models, Oracle's Stargate notice, and Jevons paradox

07:15 - Frontier versus open models, and why the harness holds the value

10:46 - Amazon blocks Muse, Shopify opens the door

16:57 - Why blocking bots fails, and why agents may raise prices

23:13 - Block brings Bitcoin Lightning to x402 for AI agents

26:26 - What if the ads of the agent internet are just money?

29:07 - Open USD: Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and Shopify

30:56 - Mass tokenization, from the CFTC to the ECB's Pontes

33:51 - Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock on Ondo, Binance into Circle

36:50 - Stablecoins as the onramp, and the agentic bank run

41:02 - If intelligence is free, where does alpha come from?

44:09 - Single point of failure of the week: the Bitget hack

48:35 - Russia tells investors to eat stablecoin freeze losses

50:16 - The Epoch AI chart: cheaper faster than any tech in history

ABOUT THE SHOW

Final Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.

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• Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC

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Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.