The Special Teams Revolution + Week 4's Biggest Matchups | NFL Pro

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3:13There is a remarkable trend across the NFL. All about special teams that is making a massive difference, not just in who's getting the most yards, but who's winning and losing games. Trevor, are you ready to talk about the third phase? Oh, I'm more than ready. We talked about in the reaction show how close all of those games were this past Sunday. There were more one-score finishes on that Sunday than we had seen in such a long time. And the more that I thought about it, I was like, you know what? I look at these teams. The Raiders, the Cardinals, the Dolphins. These teams that were supposed to be seller dwellers, right? Pencil in the win. It's an easy win. They're going to be terrible this year, and you look at these teams. These teams look competitive. They look good. It's tighter matchups between these lower teams. And to me, it signals the fact that the floor of the NFL this season feels so much higher. And so when we dug into maybe why, well, you get to the part of the game that

4:17often gets overlooked and underappreciated, under talked about. And that is special teams. And from there, the wonderful people at Next Gen Stats, they found us the data to actually backup the fact that this is making a major difference this year. It's up. It is. God! He's perfect on the young season. Yeah, if you're just looking at the box score, right? Like how many yards your offense got, how many yards your defense held the opposing offense to. It's easy to get a sense of of how a game went in that way, but it rarely tells the whole story, which is why if you're looking at average starting field position differential, that's where a lot of the hidden yards in the game shows up. Because the better you're starting field position, the less yards your offense has to get to score. Math, baby. Math. Math. Math, right? Show's up in scoring, drive percentage. That's another big number we're going to get to today. And if you're looking at the teams that are best in terms of average starting field position differential, how good is our starting field position versus how

5:19good is the opponent starting field position. Right at the very top is the Raiders at plus 12.2 yards. That showed up even last week, right? When the Saints turned the ball over four times, they started one of those drives inside the Saints 10 yard line. They started another one of those drives effectively at midfield. So you don't have to get as many yards to score to make that comeback, like the Raiders did when you're set up for success like that. That happened with the Broncos, right? One of the things that spurred their comeback was a huge pot return. And then the Rams had a bad punt that set up the Broncos at midfield for their next score. Like this stuff matters. The yards don't go away just because you're not getting them on offense. You're just getting them from a different unit. And that's special teams or in some cases, defense if you're getting turnovers. And if you're looking at the teams that are bad in average starting field position differential, you got the chargers at negative 9.1 yards. That shows up. It makes Justin Herbert have to work harder. And he hasn't exactly been himself this season. So it's something that doesn't show up in the box score,

6:21but you feel it while you're watching the game like you feel like your offense always has to dig out of a hole or you feel like your defense is always put into position to succeed. And having this kind of number starting field position differential, it tells the story that I don't think has really gotten told so far this season. When you look at best average starting field position, the Raiders are at the top of that list, right? I mean, we're highlighting them for a reason as a team is playing really well. And when you look at their EPA per play on offense or even just totally PA, they're kind of like right around the middle of the league. And yet they're sitting here at 3 and 0. And it goes into sort of what you said, like where are the hidden yards? Where's the hidden advantage? It's here Raiders 39.9 yard line. Is there starting field position Panthers right behind them and Panthers high scoring team? They've put up a lot of points to start the season. They're at the 35 yard line, Bengals right behind them at the 33.7 yard line as an average for their starting field position. And then when you look at some of the worst average starting field position, well, it's three teams that have been very frustrating to start the year. The Patriots, just a 25.6

7:27yard line starting field position average, the Rams, a 25.8, the Texans, a 26.4. So these are teams that are having slower starts to the season that you go, man, what's up? And obviously there are things on offense and defense that are sort of hampering them that we've talked about already this season. But special teams are such a, again, underappreciated and under talked about factor when it comes to how close these teams have been on the scoreboard. And I think it matters a lot because the new kickoff rules have totally changed things where like it kind of goes into head coaching decisions, right? You and I have talked about time out management, fourth down decisions, all that kinds of stuff. It's winning in the little margins that sometimes mean the world to games that have a sliver margin for error. You have to win in those margins. Coaching decisions are one of them. Special teams are absolutely another and the way that special teams are set up in today's NFL,

8:28if you start out with the ball around the 35 yard line, bro, how many players are you away from field goal range at this point? Like you're in the case of the Ravens one. You are so much closer to potentially putting points on the board that this cannot be overstated, just how important special teams are. One of the things that NGS tracks is coaching decisions, right? Are you going for it or are you punting? Are you kicking a field goal? Are you punting? And it's determined by win probability added, right? Are you going to get a higher win probability if you make a certain decision? You know, they track how often coaches are aggressive versus conservative relative to what the recommendation is. I would advocate we need to track another decision beyond field goals punting

9:30and going for it. And that's the willingness to intentionally give the other team a touchback at the 35 yard line. Right? This was brought up by Jesse Miller after the Cowboys game. They decided to kick a touchback gave us the ball in the 35. We really only needed, you know, 18 plus yards to get to our, you know, end of game type of range. The touchback rule is huge. Like it's the 35 yard line. So that added five yards of field position matters a lot. Like even if you're just looking at pre-new kickoff rules, right now that average starting field position after a kickoff is 31.1 yards before the new kickoff rules. It was at 26.5 yards. That's worth a lot in terms of average scoring, dry percentage. He's at 4.5%. If you amplify that even more out to the 35, you're one throw away in the case of the Ravens from getting into the these kickers ranges that are, you know, past 60 yards at this point. And so I would like to track coaches that intentionally give those extra five yards

10:35a field position on a touchback versus just trusting their unit to cover because in my mind, that's kicking scared in a way because you don't trust your kickoff unit to keep them under 35. And so you're giving them the 35, which means you have 20 yards of cushion. If that, that decision cost Dallas. It cost Houston. You know, there was another special teams rule change that I don't think has gotten covered enough. Now teams have the ability to prepare these balls essentially a weekend advance for these kickers. And so ranges have gotten extended not to mention the kickers these days are just better. And you're giving them the ability to prepare these balls. Like they used to only have I think 90 minutes before kickoff. Now they have days to do it and really dial in the ball how they want it to be. And by the way, we do have some stats to back this up. If you're looking at the number of 50 plus yard field goals attempted since 2023. On average, it's 172 and a half per year. Before then, there was never more than 120 in a season. That's a massive job. This year,

11:42by the way, we're on pace for 198 like these kickers are going nuts, dude. It wasn't long ago to wear a 60 plus yard field goal like a 61 62 yards was considered like insane, right? And now, if you don't have a kicker where hitting a 60 yard or there at least capable of doing it, you're out. They'll find somebody else who could do it. It's just crazy. The growth of this now, you mentioned how they can prep some of these field goal balls. I think people are going to ask, what does that look like? So the things that you could do, apply a wet towel of the ball, brushing the football by hand with a new ball brush using the side of the brush to soften the leather and remove the slickness to it. Ultimately, what this is doing is it's putting more life into the football. I mean, came a little attempt at a 70 yard field goal this past week. You can't just overlook this and say, you know, we don't really love our, you know,

12:44special teams, you know, kick coverage groups. So we're just going to boot it in the end zone, give it to me the 35. This is going to be something that's extremely important to monitor throughout this season, but also in the future seasons to again, where is this emphasis on special teams going to be more and more important when we get to the off season? And you know how like later in the draft, we go, oh, they drafted this guy for special teams. You might start to see serious premiums on guys who are truly different makers and special teams when it comes to those kick coverage groups because you do not and you cannot have the other team start with the football at the 35, for free. You all have my back. I love having y'all's back. If you know special teams meetings, you know, we don't retire. Let's get into some of these game previews though, because we do got to talk about the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. This is a a premier matchup. I think before the season started, everybody was really looking forward to this, but now, Brett, it's two teams on different trajectories. The Bills lost the turnover differential

13:46by four last week and still were able to win the game. Before that, the previous two games, Josh Allen looked absolutely unstoppable. And on the other side of things, it feels like it couldn't look worse for the New England Patriots. Well, my concern level is very high for this football team. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Bill special teams is pretty good too. They have the fifth best average starting field position at 32.7 yards and the sixth most special teams EPA so far this year. That was a big reason why, you know, I mean, they were always going to be a tricky matchup with the chargers, but the charger special teams is bad. Bill special teams is good. That certainly helps make up the difference for five turnovers in a game, right? When you also add in Josh Allen, it's just on another planet at this point. Drake May can't buy a deep completion. Certainly can't buy a red zone touchdown. They have more turnovers in the red zone than touchdowns at this point. You kind of need to every advantage you can get to win a game like this if you're New England, and they have almost every disadvantage you can have. It's a really, really tough matchup for them. A lot tougher than I thought it was going to be, you know, a month ago. The Drake May conversation,

14:50I don't even necessarily think it's too much schematically. I think it's a lot of it's mental for Drake May because when you look at some of the areas where you would think the Drake May would have an advantage where it's no blitz or being able to hold onto the ball a little bit longer, that's the area where Drake May seems to struggle the most this season. All six of his interceptions have come when he has held the ball for longer than two and a half seconds. It is when he is looking deep down the field. I think that this is a natural progression of good quarterbacks. You start and you get this hot shot young quarterback who's got all the arm talent in the world, and the NFL, a lot of defense coordinators will say, all right, buddy, we're going to throw the kitchen sink at you. We're going to blitz here. We're going to play tight man coverage. Nobody's going to be open immediately. What are you going to do with it? The best quarterbacks, they're able to say, hey, now I got my guy one on one. I'm going to finish my dropback. Boom, there it is. I'm going to give him a shot to the sideline outside the numbers. That's what a lot of Drake May's best stuff was last year. Well, the natural progression, if you remember, the league

15:52had a problem with this with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and the league said, okay, here's what we're going to do. We're going to play too high or we're going to play three deep, four deep, whatever it is. And we're going to dare you to be patient. We're going to make it so you have to take everything underneath. And Drake May just doesn't want to do it. And there's kind of a reason why that that might be the case just from an offensive standpoint with the Patriots. When you look at the Patriots, their 8% mistackle rate by wide receivers last year was the third lowest in the NFL. And this year, it's no better. None of their wide receivers have forced a mistackle yet this season. So, Brett, you kind of combine things a little bit here. The quick game with wide receivers isn't very dynamic for you. So you don't want to go to that a lot. The running game has either been inefficient, non dynamic, or sometimes both at the same time. So you don't love going to the ground game. So you have the ball in Drake May's hands a lot longer, which is playing right into what the defense wants him to do against the bill specifically for this matchup. They don't play man. They're playing man coverage of one of the lowest rates this season. 14.5%. That's seventh lowest

16:57in the NFL. So all that to say, I don't mean to pile on, but I don't know if it gets better for the Patriots this week. This is a tough matchup for them. My comp would be if the late 2010s warriors just stopping able to shoot three's because last year's offense was very much kind of about the three ball, right? He's still taking those shots down the field as much as he did before. If you're looking at percentage of attempts that are 20 plus yards down the field, he targeted those vertical routes on 19.7% of his attempts. And then if you're looking at this year, it's up to 21.3%. So he's actually being more aggressive than he was last year. It's just balls not going in the hoop. Right? If you're looking at his completion percentage over expected last year on vertical routes, it was plus 13.7%, which is nuts because those are already low percentage balls as it is. They call him 50, 50 balls for a reason. So if you're hitting them at that rate, yeah, your EPA per play is going to look crazy because you're hitting a bunch of explosive plays that most teams aren't going to hit. This year, he's negative on completion percentage over expected on those. So he's attempting more of

18:02them and he's worse at it, which means the offense is stalling because the run games inconsistent, you know, weirdly enough, the best player on the offense this year has been Will Campbell, but I would say past protections been up and down outside of Will Campbell. And when you're not hitting those three balls for like a better comparison, you kind of just don't have anything else. And they were so good at it last year that they didn't need to have anything else. It's not like they were a great yacht team last year. Like you said, they were third lowest rate and mistakels forced after the catch by their receivers last year. They're terrible at it again this year. It's just they don't have that shot down the boundary to be their comfort food. I don't know how you fix this other than just learning how to operate the offense completely differently, right? Develop a real quick game. Be able to get some yards after the catch, which is really more on the receivers than on May, but ball placement does matter for that. But like you got to break a tackle at some point. They need to go back to basics and stop just trying to trick shot their way down the field because it's

19:03not working. It's it hasn't looked good for the Patriots. And then really quick for Buffalo's side. You know, Josh Allen did throw his two interceptions last week against two high safety shells. I believe it was four deep coverages on both of those interceptions from him. Essentially, it was the chargers daring him to throw things underneath and you got a little over his keys and he threw those interceptions there. The Patriots do run it to high safety's right around the middle of the pack of the NFL this season. And so they could see a decent amount of that and they could lean a little bit more into that. But man, when the bills were able to run the ball the way that they could between the tackles last week, which James Cook, you got an answer for everything. Just like you said, the Patriots have not been able to do this. The bills looked at last week and said, all right, well, Josh Allen's really struggling to throw a deep down field. Let's run the ball. Ho ho, the advantage that they had doing that was amazing. So I think it's full bills advantage for this game. If the Patriots win, it's going to take by far the best game of their season. Reaches for the goal line and he's into the end zone. The cook is in the kitchen.

20:03The Rams and the Eagles are the next game that I want to touch on here because Brett is the loser in big trouble in this game for both of these teams. Obviously only one team can win, technically both teams can tie, but whoever loses this game, I think that the seasons, man, taking a real bad turn for them. You basically have to win to keep pace for the one seed in the NFC. And these are two teams that want the one seed in the NFC. If the Rams start one in three, I don't know how they're going to be able to do that. When the two other teams that potentially could get the one seed are in their division, that's tough sledding. And the Eagles, they're going to fight with Dallas for this division at this point. I know Dallas hasn't exactly started off the best in the win, lost column, but just watching them using my eyeballs, I would say Dallas might be a bigger threat right now than Philly, just because they're off and so it's so discombobulated. Throw it or something by PJ Edward. So yeah, both these teams have to win this game. It feels early for a must win, but if you're looking at the macro of the season and setting up who's

21:07winning your division, who's not winning your division, different from one seed and a five seed, potentially, this is huge. For the Rams, I know a lot of the talk has been on the defense side of the ball, right? No miles Garrett, Aaron Donald hasn't been the high impact player that some people thought that he'd just be able to pop off the couch and be, I think it's going to take a little bit of time for Aaron Donalds. And I just think the defense line overall hasn't been as ferocious as it was last year and we thought that it was going to be, but really the major issue to me is on the offensive side because Stafford does not look the same specifically under pressure this season. When you look at Matthew Stafford, his numbers under pressure last year. I mean, he threw five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 86 quarterback rating. I mean, this year under pressure, he has a 28.8 quarterback rating. It is just totally different for him. And then specifically, I mean, you want to talk about, okay, well, is it a Pukinakua thing? Is it just the fact that Nakuha has not been out there? It could be a little bit of that. I mean, the on-off splits for them this year. It's a

22:08small sample size, but when Pukinakua has been on the field, it still hasn't been great. The quarterback rating under pressure was 4.1, but Nakuha has barely been out there. So I wouldn't necessarily take that too much into account, but it's last year's numbers under pressure that I think do mean a little bit more. And certainly, surprise, surprise, one of the best wide receivers in the game is out there. The quarterback plays better. I know. But when Nakuha was out there on the field, when Stafford faced pressure, he still had a quarterback rating of an 83.0. And then when Nakuha was off the field all of last year, that dip to a 63.4 quarterback rating. So I think the Nakuha's absence certainly means a good amount here, but it's worse than even that difference last year would have led you to believe. Stafford just is not trusting things. He is not getting the ball out when he needs to, where he needs to, and specifically for this Eagles matchup. The Eagles have generated the 9th highest pressure rate in the NFL at a 39.2. So again, you talk about this game meaning a lot to both sides. Stafford's got to look better against a team that has been able to generate

23:13pressure. Although this past weekend, the Eagles weren't really able to generate pressure because Kenan was getting the ball out of his hands in less than two and a half seconds. Stafford's much more around 2.7, 2.8, so he's not that quick with getting the ball out of his hands. But ultimately, Brett, we got to see better answers from Stafford. The MVP of last year has to be able to play better under pressure. Or I think that this game could be, again, more of a struggle than you would think for this Rans team. You know, you bring up those splits. And to me, that shows what a safety or rather security blanket. Pukas Ben for him under pressure because most blitzes in the NFL are not man blitzes. They're zone blitzes, right? So they're going to be a 3-3 fire zone, 3-deep, 3-under with 5 rushing. Or, you know, the popular thing these days because Brian Flores does it all the time. You call it a quarter's fire zone or a Palms fire zone. It's too deep. And then you still have 5 coming after the quarterback. We've seen teams throw 6 bodies at the quarterback. They face a bunch of double mugs. Looks against Denver where we're just putting a bunch of guys in the line of scrimmage and it's on you to figure out who's coming and who's going. I mean, that last pick

24:17that he threw against a Funga, the pick 6, it was a brilliantly disguised 0 blitz that did not look like 0 pre-snap. And so they do have to sort this out because it kind of feels like teams have figured out their protections a little bit of like, okay, they are not going to block it up with 7. They're going to block it up with 5 or 6 at most and they're trusting their MVP quarterback to sort out the free runner. And they're saying like, hey, you have an old quarterback who we think we can outnumber in terms of number of rushers versus your protectors. He can't get away. So we know the ball has to come out quick. That's how Funga got the pick 6 is because it was a really nicely disguised 0. He knew they're going to free Russia. Balls out immediately. He just steps in front of the running back like they have to figure out a new protection plan that involves more bodies or teams are just going to keep doing this to them. They're just going to keep blitzing him because he can't get away. And to kind of loop the Eagles back in here, I would say Hertz has the opposite problem. They've been using more bodies in protection with him because he clearly

25:19doesn't trust his protection. And so they feel like they have to make him more comfortable with extra protectors because he's not handling the pressure as well as he probably should for a quarterback as veteran as he is. And to me, that comes down to trust. All this to say both quarterbacks have issues with pressure right now, just in different kind of ways. And the quarterback that figures it out first is probably going to win this game. We did mention that this is going to be tough, whichever team loses this game, but specifically for the Rams, Brett, if they lose against the Eagles this week, they're wanting to round the season to start. They then play Monday and a football against the Buffalo Bills the next week. Obviously very tough. Then they have a stretch of the Cardinals, the Raiders, the Chargers, the Commanders and the Cardinals again. I mentioned those couple of those teams playing way better than we thought that they were going to this season. You might have to go four and one at worst during that stretch because then you have your biweek and week 11 if you're the Rams, but then it goes Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle,

26:19Tampa Bay, Seattle. Like I know we talked about the one seed. If you lose this game, you're putting so much pressure on yourself in that five game stretch from the Cardinals to the Cardinals right in between those. I mean, you almost have to go five and oh, which is a very, very, very tough thing to tell yourself you have to do even for a team that's as talented as the Rams. So, they're the Super Bowl favorites. I don't want to say they're in trouble early, but they got to pick it up or they might be looking at not just not getting the one seed. Are they the Super Bowl favorites still? No, I'm saying those Super Bowl favorites going into the season like everybody would have... No, no, no, no, no. I think that there are many other teams that are now in the conversation, but going into the year, you'd be hard pressed to find really anybody that was betting against the Rams this year. The most important intent is is just making sure we educate our players on how it's being officiated. So, there's clarity of how we can coach them to play technique and fundamentally through the cycle, the snap. And so, that's kind of where we're at with that.

27:19How do you turn 16 games injury reports? Team notes, betting lines and match-up trends into one clear weekend preview. Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal, plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans. It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline, or workflow. You can keep shaping. You stay in control reviewing the work and choosing the final result. Put chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatgbt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans. Be honest, you've always known you have what it takes to be a GM. You've just been waiting for an opportunity. You already pour over scouting reports, build out extensive draft boards, and understand the rules of roster building. All you need is your chance. Well, now, thanks to bet 365, you're finally getting a shot to put your team building skills to the test, introducing bet 365's mobile fantasy game, a new free-to-play way to experience fantasy sports like never before. Build your roster, set your lineup, and watch them climb the leaderboard.

28:24Whether you're joining a private league with your friends or just playing against other bet 365 fantasy teams, there's no shortage of competition and opportunities to win. On top of that, daily pack opens and unlockable upgrades make bet 365 fantasy the perfect place to take your team building skills to the next level. Think you have what it takes to create the next great dynasty. Come prove it with bet 365 fantasy bet 365. We're winning is everything gambling problem called 1 800 gambler or 1 800 my reset us residents only must be 18 plus and president of state where bet 365 fantasy operates void where prohibited void in Washington additional state limitations may apply terms conditions and restrictions apply free to play gameplay real money in app updates and purchases available but not necessary to participate bet 365 fantasy is intended for entertainment purposes only and does not imply future success for any real money gambling please play responsibly. In football being good at just one thing isn't enough anymore to succeed you have to bring so much

29:27more to the field grit determination preparation strategy leadership it's all part of the game just look at today's players a quarterback has to do so much more than throw the ball they need to read defenses extend plays and make smart decisions under pressure running backs do so much more than run their catch and passes picking up blitzes and finding ways to create opportunities when the play breaks down the players who make the biggest impact are often the ones who can do more than what's expected of them whether it's on the field or off success often comes from being able to do more than one thing well take nation wide for example there's so much more than a great insurance company they're one of america's largest financial services companies to it's a reminder that sometimes the strongest organizations just like the strongest players are the ones built to offer so much more for your insurance and financial needs nation wide is on your side nation wide investment services corporation member finra columbus ohio lows nose sundays are for football so tackle

30:29your home improvement projects by saturday and earn your sunday with great deals on lg and basha appliances select ego the wall filtrate products and more than once your to do list is done get ready to kick back relax and enjoy the game chop in store or online now and earn your sunday with help from lows official partner of the NFL all right before we get to our next game we're going to a blind resume real quick i want you guys at home to also play along with us is a new game we're trying out here Trevor are you ready to identify the team based on the blind resume that i give you i feel like i should have had like the something to actually cover my eyes for the visual here for the blind resume but yes yeah i am i am ready let's do it let's let's go yeah we'll get NFL probe branded blindfolds for next time so here's your resume third and explosive pass rate fourth in twelve percent usage first in yards before contact this is all one team with these

31:29three stats together your choices the ravens the bills the chiefs yards before contact can the walkers force a tonne it can the walkers force a tonne of mistakels but like if you could do that after the fact as well it doesn't have to be right at the line oh man these are these are like three of the teams that would have thought of here i'm gonna go with the chiefs i'm gonna go i'm gonna go with the chiefs here for this one finally cally got you and not man that is wrong the answer is the Baltimore Ravens man you hate to see it you hate to see it no i'm just kidding Baltimore fans love to see it i actually love to see this it's it's about time somebody else got something wrong oh man all right the streak is over streak is over i was i was three and oh on our researcher cally and she got me here so the streak uh the streak resets here okay here is your question for blind resume this team this

32:32mystery team fourth in time to pressure third in overall offensive success and first in tackling efficiency okay to the 49ers the Buffalo Bills or the Detroit Lions so once again fourth in time to pressure third in overall offensive success first in tackling efficiency i feel like the bills game disqualifies the lions immediately as far as tackling efficiency i would not have gotten this answer cally you're killing me yeah give me the teams again the Niners the Bills and the Lions see now i think it might be the lions because she knows that i wouldn't think it's the lions it's the game within the game it's the mental game now he's no longer thinking about the statistics now he's thinking about the interactions personally that he

33:35has had over the last couple of weeks as we've been doing our show prep and gathering notes it's like poker man you're you're playing the players you're not playing the cards you are you're playing the players yeah yeah give me the lions it is the lions yes finally finally oh my god it is the lions and and honestly man that's why i said i would not have gotten this one i would not have gotten this answer i would have disqualified the lions right off the bat they're giving up the most passing yards per game which i would have thought that their secondary would have been terrible tackling today again disqualify them completely but good on you man good on you for recognizing the trap that's tough to do well done my friend well done all i have to do is just recognize the bait if it's too easy that means it's actually correct i may not know the teams but i know when somebody's trying to get in my head chiefs and the raiders i do want to touch on these two teams because hey three and oh three and oh undefeated versus undefeated baby who

34:36thought that this was gonna happen here in week four it's a very intriguing matchup for a lot of reasons i think the chiefs could have expected they'd be in the spot not a lot of people expected the raiders to be so where do you want to start with this game preview let's just keep on the theme of the day special teams right this is a matchup between two really good special teams units average starting field position for the raiders again best in the NFL so far this year at the 39.9 yard line so they're starting drives basically at midfield meanwhile the chiefs are starting drives at the 32 which still leavened the best so their return units also really good and they are plus 2.7 EPA on special teams which is also 11th best so the hidden yardage advantage that the raiders have had so far this season might be dialed back a bit in this one which then puts more pressure on cousins and bowers and and gentying all these guys to kind of make up that difference and get the real yards instead of the hidden yards the question i have is can they do that against a resurgent chiefs defense that has a bunch of db's that are playing out of their mind

35:39and have not one not two but three corners that could match up on brock bowers and potentially do some damage yeah bowers i mean you talk about the things that are going well for the raiders you figured that brock bowers was going to be one of them he absolutely is i just wanted to kind of put it into context how well he is playing right now we talk about bowers versus other tight ends his plus 0.25 EPA per route run is six most in the NFL and it's the most amongst all tight ends with the minimum of 20 routes this season and is 0.66 EPA per target seventh most amongst tight ends with a minimum of five targets but just to quantify sort of how good brock bowers is not just against tight ends but against all of these top receiving options in the NFL you look at his EPA per play when he is on the field so we're looking at splits on and off the field when you look at when he is on the only other wide receiver that has a higher EPA per play when he is on the field is CD lamp brock bowers is 0.10 EPA per play when he is on the field is higher than Jackson Smith

36:41and jigba it's higher than tee against it's higher than Jamar chase now the differential of on off splits it's a little bit lower than a couple of those other guys but he's right there in that category and that's been huge obviously for the Raiders this season and he's sort of been Kurt Cousins best friend throughout the year when he has been out there but I think that you are right I think that the chiefs have a unique ability not only in their players but also in their coach to get creative with how they match up against bowers you talked about this how bowers is a tight end basically only by name he is a wide receiver he is running routes from the slot he is running routes from out wide he is a wide receiver and so with that why bother putting a line backer against him why bother putting a safety against brock bowers he's not a tight end there's no reason to line up a linebacker and a safety which often gives brock bowers that advantage when teams try to do that he's a wide receiver pulling Jerry's sneak on him put no Williams on him right

37:44I mean like just just put the lane on him any of them put a corner on brock bowers and I think that Steve's bag Nolo is going to say hell yeah I'm gonna do that so I think obviously he's gonna mean the world if brock bowers doesn't have a big day I'm not so sure that the Raiders can keep up with the chiefs and I think that that's how Kansas City is actually gonna try to neutralize him yeah he had 33 routes last week 25 of them were in the slot or out wide which is just a wide receiver number if you're looking at how often he was detached from the formation this is per next gen stats 74.0% of his snaps up from 53.2% last year when they at least kind of pretended he was a tight end they're not even doing that anymore he was aligned out wide or in the slot on all of his receptions and Vegas head coach Clint Kubiak has not deployed a quote unquote tight end detached from the formation on at least 50% of his snaps as an offensive coordinator or head coach before hours this is the first time he's ever done it so he's not a tight end and the thing that I am fascinated by is when his eventual contract extension comes up

38:48is he going to allow himself to be paid like a tight end because I I wouldn't if I was in a stadium no no they're they're absolutely now remember was was Jimmy Graham kind of the first most notable headline he won Jimmy Graham led the team and catches receiving yards and touchdowns and was about to hit the market but the Saints want to keep them and they're expected to use their franchise tag on the fourth year pro Graham took to Twitter and said confirming it's officially franchise Friday tag I guess I'm it it was back in 2014 there was an argument over the franchise tag and they had an independent arbiter that ruled he was a tight end based on percentage of snaps in line versus out wide in the slot and it was a lot closer to 50.50 it's not 50.50 right right so he's basically being used the same way that Puka is in Sean McVase wildest dreams that's a receiver like his his contract if he gets franchise tag I I would bet

39:52they're going to argue with says the receiver but when he does get his extension he's not going to be scaling off-training bride he's going to be scaling off Jamar Chase I agree I agree um on the chief side of things before we move on here a team that's top three in total EPA earned this season big reason wise because of how balanced they can be with patch on my homes and then obviously Kenneth Walker but what do you think about Kenneth Walker's matchup against the loss Vegas Raiders this week he's got 41 mistakels for so far this year it's 12 more than the next closest player which is absurd the key for this matchup to me is just can the Raiders continue being as good at tackling as they have been so far this year and they were quietly a very good run defense last year it's just the volume stats made them look worse than they actually were efficiency wise they were a very good run defense but if you're looking at their mistakel rate as a defense they're at 12.5 percent which is 13th lowest in the NFL so slightly above average that's better than the 13.9 percent they had last year so they're even better at tackling than they were before five yards

40:55allowed per mistakel which is 10th fewest they were at 5.3 last season so even when they missed there's always somebody else there to rally and finish the job and they have 10 this is a real number 10 force fumbles this see we're three weeks into the year I thought I misread that get out your baby punch the ball what the hell create turnovers name of the game we've talked we've talked about it all year how do you get the little advantages 10 force fumbles but that's a team that that is just flying around trying to make plays man and I think that look I'll be up front I'm not picking the Raiders in this game however I love what they're doing I love what John Spytik is done I love very clearly the culture that clink kubiak has established within that locker room and within that team early on to where you've even got young guys flying around believing that they can make plays at the highest level so you better believe that if they do win this game against the chiefs I cannot wait to talk about this team and give them their flowers

42:01in the reaction show that you guys can see next Monday so again I'm not quite picking the Raiders I am picking the chiefs in this game but man if they're able to take down the chiefs and they look good this is a story that we are going to have to continue to tell through a megaphone now at this point if they become foreign out that's what resilience looks like hey that's you guys believe in each other k never saying die came fighting till the variant say so proud of you so proud of the effort I'm not surprised oh I'm not surprised about how that turned out one last note here did you see the video that the chiefs posted of Kenneth Walker and his run last week where he did like a frame perfect parry if you're a fan of fighting video games where a dolphin player came in and perfectly peanut punched the ball and he just went gush and just blocked it like he just secured the ball like fractions of a second he's like nope my ball and just kept going unreal dude like he is just on a different planet right now you know that stems from when you're in high school you're walking around from class class holding the football

43:04that's what you got and everybody's just fundamental on it fundamentals that's where that begins baby what a burst incredible torque finds 22 yards and he takes the ball of the 47th of the for Broncos 49ers Brett it unfortunately feels like it's just another season for the Niners when it comes to injuries they're just racking up so many guys that are either hitting NIR short term long term this depth chart looks so different than what it was even four weeks ago right before the season but the fact of the matter is it doesn't matter because Brock Purti is playing that well he is playing at an elite level and he is giving them a chance no matter who is on the offensive line no matter who he is throwing the ball to no matter what their defense looks like no matter what country the game is being played in Brock Purti is giving them a chance to be any opponent at any given time he is playing the position about as well as you can for a player who has his skill set he's been unbelievable i've mentioned some incredible

44:09football players so far that should be on the MVP ballot right Josh Allen Lamar or can't walker I would put Brock Purti at the very top if I had to give an MVP after three weeks he has been sensational in almost every single way if you're looking at his career success rates at 52.6% that leads every quarterback in the NFL since he got in the league in 2023 not so irrelevant after all i guess he's the only quarterback by the way in that time span with multiple seasons of 50% or higher this year he's at 64% success rate for people that don't know what that is it's essentially a metric that tracks like how unscheduled your offense is right if you're if it's first in 10 if your offense gains four yards that's considered a successful play you get to second in six if you gain three yards that's considered a successful play because it just sets up third and short just can you stay ahead of the sticks can you stay on schedule 64% of the time that's what he's doing

45:09which is just unreasonable like as a as a metric i just nobody does that in the modern NFL and if you're looking at how that translates into scoring drive success the niders offense has scored touchdowns on 48.1% of their drives this year easily highest in the NFL that's highest through the first three weeks in a season since at least the year 2000 like they didn't start tracking it before then it might be the best ever we don't know but at least in the best in recent history this is the most effective offense cow shanahans ever had and cow shanahans coordinated some of the best offenses ever right you look at the 2016 Falcons look at the late 2000s Texans just looking at some of the other 49ers offenses that he's led there's nothing that's ever been this good ever like we don't have a comparison for this that is how dominant party has been and how in the zone cow shanahans been yeah i'm gonna run through some numbers really quick just to quantify exactly what you're talking about Brock party versus zone this season completion percentage fourth highest

46:12in the NFL yards per attempt also fourth highest EPA per dropback most in the NFL all right what about the intermediate area completion percentage third highest yards per attempt second highest EPA per dropback oh once again most in the NFL and then over the middle of the field where he has been so fantastic completion percentage seventh highest yards per attempt fifth highest EPA per dropback sixth most one hundred and 52 total yards over the middle of the field most in the NFL they said he couldn't do it they said he was too short they said he couldn't see over the middle of the field but I think that yeah a little bit tongue in cheek there but I think that goes into something that Brock party said himself on a podcast where he said hey man look in the NFL like I've talked to cow shanahans about this 40% of the throws that you have you're not gonna be able to see when guys are open you're throwing to a spot you're throwing to a zone you got to have that much confidence in what you are seeing and the confidence works both ways because cow shanahans also said recently that he compared the confidence that he has in Brock party to Matt Ryan in 2016 that MVP caliber

47:12season from Matt Ryan that's the comfort level that we're talking about so we've gushed over Brock party a little bit here but there's another quarterback on the other side and bonix who also has the ability to play the position at a high level but do you think from what we've seen from Nick's over the first couple of weeks you have faith in him keeping up with party and ending up winning this game what do you think well that's the issue right is the keeping up I think if this is a one possession game of the fourth quarter let's just say it's one possession because the Broncos defense you know steps up to the challenge and holds this incredible Niners offense down at least a little bit if this is a one possession game yeah bonix can win it and we've seen him do that over and over and over again look at the Eagles game last year look at the Giants game last year look at the Rams game if the game is close in the fourth quarter and you just need him to put together one drive he can put together that one drive the problem is if the game's already out of reach because of how he plays in the first three quarters I have pretty big worries that he's going to be able to dig them out of the hole that he creates and the 30 point second half explosion

48:20if you're looking at just the first three quarters from that Sunday night game against the Rams his yards per attempt was 3.9 the fourth quarter was 9.9 but even if you're just looking at completions on attempts he was only four of nine in that quarter like he completed less than 50% of his passes it's just he had a 9.9 yards per attempt because he got 60 yards on back-to-back throws on that last drive because the Rams blew two coverages in a row so if the Rams don't blow those coverages do they even get into the red zone with those controversial penalties in the first place I'm not sure they do because of what he played like in the 50 minutes leading up to that moment and I just I don't have faith that he's going to keep up with party right now and it'll broncos fans will be like well he had two touchdown drives in third quarter yeah one of them they started at midfield and they ran the ball to the red zone I'm giving credit to the offensive line I'm giving credit to the run game but it's not like bow was the one that was carrying the team on his back there until those two throws against like literally broken coverages you could look at it on

49:23tape so I'm not I'm not saying bonix is a bad quarterback that's not the point of this segment what I'm saying is he can't play like a bad quarterback for 45 to 50 minutes and try to keep up with the guy who might be the MVP front runner like you have to do that the entire game you have to go blow for blow you can't just let him stack touchdowns on you because eventually you're going to be down 20 points and it's going to look like the chiefs game from week one where you're just kind of waiting for it to happen and it never did and they just got blown out and it embarrassed on national TV so he has to play good from the first quarter on he cannot save it for the fourth quarter not against an opponent like this one here's what has to happen we have to continue to trend the right way all right but I'm proud every one of you Jags Bengals last game that we're going to talk about here today and it's also a matchup of two great offenses great quarterbacks and I'm specifically looking to see what Trevor Lawrence is going to be like in this game because for the first three weeks of the season man he's been excellent against zone every time that a team has played zone

50:25coverage against him you talk about quarterbacks that are confident right now Trevor Lawrence believes he can make any throw in the world these showcasing it especially in the red zone man when things are at a premium with space is at a premium I mean he only seems to play better which a quarterback does that it's it's it's pretty incredible the Bengals though they play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL this season so is this game maybe going to be a little bit harder for Trevor Lawrence because if you go back to that we two game against the Broncos it was the second half of that game when the Broncos switched more to man coverage in which Lawrence started to struggle now it's still been good for him 0.1 a eP a per dropback against man 0.25 eP a per drop back against zone so it's not like he has a negative eP a per play still a great quarterback against man coverage it's just a looked a little bit different now on the flip side go back to last week and Roger's toward this defense up air Rogers versus the Bengals man coverage 815 149

51:26passing yards two touchdowns 0.54 eP a per dropback and we highlighted this in the reaction show and Roger's able to hang on to the ball for a while and actually make a lot of these place happen as well so what matters more here the fact that Lawrence hasn't been as good against man coverage or is it the fact that sure the Bengals play it but they've given up a lot of explosive plays this season and Aaron Rogers carved them up I'm not sure and I think that's going to go a long way into determining who has the most points when this one's all done I'm looking for a bounce back game from Lawrence the Clemson one the other Clemson one Dexter Lawrence sorry I've been saving that for years for them to match that's good it's about time to get it now that was good I didn't know where you were going there but that was good he uh he kind of got a skicked against Pittsburgh last week I'm not gonna lie how do you get his kick to the they just have a good plan for him first of all I'm not convinced the lifting of the leg thing was legal

52:31but it was genius so bonus points for that however that's not even like really the play that I'm talking about if you're looking at that big jalen Warren run like they scoop blocked Dexter Lawrence and just ran it right at him this left side of the steelers line did really well against Dexter Lawrence and so I'm a little bit not worried I'm curious to see if he bounces back in this one because the left side of the Jags line is also pretty good right Emanuel Pregnon has been a wall for them at left Harrison we know is a really talented tackle and then you got Nate Borkerture right rookie tied in who let's say his selection was controversial at the time and uh we'll leave it at that now you can say it from yours truly I'm the my my face is the poster boy for knee being skeptical of how early they went with this Nate Borkerture selection but hey it it this is identifying the talent and recognizing where it could fit on your roster and I even said afterwards like look I think that they picked him way too early I think that they could have got him

53:33later I questioned the overall draft strategy with it but how they are deploying him what it means and how it is making this run game and this trench is better for the Jags it looks awesome early on for them to already have these returns for him you however highly you wanted to draft him you have to feel good about what he is doing early on because you are right it's changing their power run game it is changing be I guess beyond power on game it's changing the dynamics of what they want to do on the trenches in the blocking game entirely and I think that that's been incredibly valuable for them early on this season and you know when you put him next to Harrison next to Pragedon that left side it just caves people in the this is actually kind of the match up between two teams that love blocking tight ends the most they're two of the top three teams in terms of 12 percent usage in the league Jags use it 31 percent of the time since he uses 38.2 percent of the time so blocking tight ends galore in this one and Dexter Lawrence has to bounce back for last week because when they

54:34put him on that side they are trusting him to to really just make the math be in their favor against a talented left side of this Jags offense he's got to do it here we go everybody it's time for our week four game picks here Trevor and Brett once again picking the 10 most interesting games games we are most compelled by in this week's slate and not only picking the winner but ranking them in terms of confidence so if you've been following along for a while you know the drill but if you're new here what we do is we take these 10 games and we order them in confidence rankings so the team that we have at the number 10 spot that means that we are getting 10 points if we get that game right in the nine spot you get nine points if you get it right eight spot eight and so on and so forth we'll kind of preview these games as we go along and we'll be keeping score all season long Brett would you like to know what your score was from week three and then also your season total here how do you think you did do I think I got demolished I'm not gonna lie I had a bad week three I think everybody had a bad week three other than the people in the comments they

55:37they kind of smoked me we'll talk about the people in the comments who we love that you guys are getting involved in this as well we'll shout a couple you out in a couple of minutes but you did lose your number 10 confidence game your most confident game because you picked the Bengals over the Pittsburgh Steelers but all in all you got 33 points last week which brings your season total to 111 I don't know how I did but I do know that I picked the buckeniers to win and they did not so I know that we lost that one right off of the bat but give me the bad news tell me how it was so you came into the week one point behind me in total yeah you got 34 which means that your season total is 11 we are dead even you love that parody you love that parody I mean we're just we're just simply matching with the NFL season is giving us right because we had the most one score games in a Sunday slate that we've had over the last 20 years this

56:42past week so we're right on par with the 2026 NFL season okay got tied up oh man that just make that makes this game pick even better shout out to some of you guys who are getting in on the games as well we absolutely love this you guys are firing it off in the comments where you're taking the 10 games that we have you're ordering him and you're picking them as well three people that we got to shout out right off the top of the show how do you turn 16 games injury reports team notes betting lines and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview chat GPT work can help give it the goal plus real inputs like notes files data and project plans it can help turn them into an analysis tracker deck outline or workflow you can keep shaping you stay in control reviewing the work and choosing the final result put chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat GPT dot com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans be honest you've always

57:43known you have what it takes to be a GM you've just been waiting for an opportunity you already poor over scouting reports build out extensive draft boards and understand the rules of roster building all you need is your chance well now thanks to bet three six five you're finally getting a shot to put your team building skills to the test introducing bet three six five mobile fantasy game a new free to play way to experience fantasy sports like never before build your roster set your line up and watch them climb the leaderboard whether you're joining a private league with your friends or just playing against other bet three six five fantasy teams there's no shortage of competition and opportunities to win on top of that daily pack opens and unlockable upgrades make bet three six five fantasy the perfect place to take your team building skills to the next level think you have what it takes to create the next great dynasty come prove it with bet three six five fantasy bet three six five we're winning is everything gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred my reset us residents only must be eighteen plus and president of state where bet three six five fantasy

58:47operates void where prohibited void in washington additional state limitations may apply terms conditions and restrictions apply free to play gameplay real money in app updates and purchases available but not necessary to participate bet three six five fantasy is intended for entertainment purposes only and does not imply future success for any real money gambling please play responsibly nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company they're one of america's largest financial services companies just like i'm so much more than quarterback patent manning i'm also patent man insurance and financial services together it's a masterpiece patent manning does it again for your insurance and financial needs nationwide is on your side nation-wide investment services corporation and brefina columbus ohio lows nose sundays are for football so tackle your home improvement projects by saturday and earn your sunday with great deals on

59:48lg and basha appliances select ego the wall filtrate products and more then once your to do list is done get ready to kick back relax and enjoy the game shop in store or online now and earn your sunday with help from lows official partner of the nfl eber con drill i think is how you say this forty six points for their game picks last week they only missed one game and the one game that they missed was the bangles they also took the bangles over the steers uh quesar who we also shattered out last week by the way forty five points again last week as well so they are on a roll tablet brothers forty four points that was some of the highest scores of any of the entries that we had last week and by the way these top three that we just named there they were the only fans to pick three of the four upset winners so the steers the cult the broncos and the raiders they at least had three out of four some combination of those four teams so shout out to you guys

1:00:50and again if you want to get in on the game here with us do so in the comment section listen to ten games that we have here this week and give us your picks and in the confidence rankings so we can keep we can keep your scores as well as ours correct why the NFL is paying us to do this they should just have them do it dude don't say that loud come on come on come on Roger we should get Rogers out here as well uh nothing okay the first game that I want to highlight Jacksonville versus Cincinnati is a tough one man is two teams they can light up a scoreboard but what are we thinking here who you taking and where is it in your confidence rankings so Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind so far this season so I'm taking Jacksonville to win this game I did put it up my three spot it's mainly because I can't figure out what Cincinnati is right now if you take out the special teams errors would they have beat the Steelers last week I I think

1:01:53it's a strong possibility but the special teams are what the special teams are if you're looking at special teams e-paper play they're second worst in the NFL so far this season giving up a lot of explosive plays through the air also you know the Steelers just kind of ran right at Dexter Lawrence last week the left side of the Jags line is pretty good I I just don't feel good about the Bengals in this one which of course means they're gonna win but I'm picking Jacksonville to take this one at my three spot I'm also taking Jacksonville but because of the uncertainty of both of these offenses being able to light it up at any point in time this is only in the one spot for me so I'm gonna take the Jags to but this is all the way down to the bottom of my list an interesting point for this game is that Trevor Lawrence has been tearing it up specifically against zone coverage he's been grading its man as well but he's specifically been phenomenal at attacking his own coverage is man he's gotten a little bit more trouble with you know you look at the second half of that Denver Broncos game he struggled and they switched to play a lot more man so it's just a

1:02:54different look the Bengals play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL so far this season so they could sort of lean into what Lawrence hasn't been as stellar at this season however here Roger it's just absolutely lit up this Bengals defense last week playing a lot of that single high cover one cover three stuff so the tape is out there on how you beat it and I got a lot of faith in this coaching staff so I'm taking the Jags here in this one Dallas Cowboys coming back states side to take on your Houston Texans what do we think about this one so three weeks in a row I've picked the Texans and put it at the one spot I don't know how I can have any confidence in this team at this point so I'm going Dallas I'm putting it at the four spot all right there's just so there's so many problems with the Texans right now none of them are CJ Stroud by the way I do want to reiterate that he has had a nice year but they have had problems

1:03:54up front especially trying to run the ball that has cropped up popped up again this year you know defense it's just been very inconsistent more inconsistent than I expected from them so far this year like Will Anderson had a whale of a game and it still just didn't feel like it mattered that much because when they really needed this defense to step up you're giving up 20 yards the Laquan Treadwell that sets up game when he feel goal so I just don't have a lot of confidence to the Texans right now so I'm going Dallas who also has their own issues but less issues than Houston yeah without legal comments and obviously no Jayden Higgins as well with his long-term injury this team sort of struggled to I mean CJ Stroud said it in the press or after the game is like we weren't aggressive we didn't push the ball the way that we needed to they're bad and short-yarded situations on the ground like you mentioned I mean those third and short fourth and short situations I mean this team is just not reliable right now with converting a lot of those things and so the easy stuff seems harder and the more difficult stuff just doesn't seem feasible with the current

1:04:55health of that roster right now so it's tough for me even with Houston's defense and all the potential it still has it's tough for me to think about this team outscoring a Cowboys offense that I think is just only getting better and we saw them really start to catch fire in Brazil last week I know they didn't win the game but certainly the offense did what they needed to do to have a chance to win it at the end score touched out and take care of it right there in regulation or kick the field goal and they thought that they were going to head over time and obviously they didn't because of the defensive blender there I'm also taking the Dallas Cowboys but I'm putting that in my five spot here so pretty close to where you have it at we've got the same team winning this game but I'm going to take that at the five spot we're going to have the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers and Niners just keep racking up injuries as it unfortunately feels like they always do and it continues to not matter this team is still executing at extremely high level and the Broncos where they can play at very high level football at some points they can flip the switch very quickly and it can all not look great just such a high variance team

1:06:00right now so we take it in this one and where you put it in the confidence ranking so I'm taking services going to win this game injuries be damned all right is it weird that I put it the seven spot like I'm actually really confident in this because I just look at how Brock Perty is playing I compare that to how Bo Nix is playing you're asking Bo Nix to keep up with who I believe is the MVP front runner right now in Brock Perty can you go drive for drive with this offense this offense that is put up touchdown drives at a rate higher than every other team in every other season in the first three weeks of a year since at least 2000 hmm it is absurd what they're doing right now it is historic what they're doing right now and Bo Nix you know God bless them for the fourth quarters that he that he's had quarters one through three still matter a lot and he's been objectively bad in quarters one through three and I feel like even with good fourth quarters the gap between these two quarterbacks is going to be so big that I don't think Denver's going to be able

1:07:02to overcome that so give me San Francisco at the seventh spot I'll be different than you here I'll I'll take the Denver Broncos and I have it's super high variance like I said but the highs for this Denver team are really good you know again you talk about a team that was toe to toe with the Jags who I feel like are one of the better teams in the NFL and they even were able to adjust in the second half and best that team and I think there's a world where they could give party some fits and I think that the Broncos play man coverage not only at a higher rate but I think they play coverage better than most teams that like to do it on a regular basis obviously having Patrick's or Tam really helps you in that regard but I also look at the player that Talon Ovo Hufongo is and and sort of we saw that this past week and how great that he was in sort of that rover roll where he's over the middle of the field I mean it pretty loves to attack over the middle of the field and I think the Broncos are going to try to set up their defense to where they're giving who Fongo the ability to really close in on a lot of those in breaking routes that over the

1:08:03middle stuff so I think a lot of the numbers so far would tell you to pick San Francisco so I certainly don't fault you for it but I think Denver's defense is uniquely built to frustrate pretty more than these other teams have been able to to start the year so as long as Bo gives us the up we can we can have a little bit of the down but as long as he gives you the up I think they got a chance to win this game so I'll think the Denver Broncos here at my four spot for this one the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Chargers thoughts opinions where we going if the Chargers win this game I'll be stunned me too because I have it at the 10 spot for Seattle winning I put it I put it at nine Seattle winning at the nine like which might surprise people that I have something even higher than that but like is there anything literally anything that the Chargers do better than Seattle at all I don't think there is no no I'm with you and you look at

1:09:10last week's game where Seattle loses and we talked about it in the review show how turnovers met everything in that game right they turn the ball over three times Washington scores touchdowns on all three turnovers and they still only won that game by two points you know Jackson and the jibba still goes off Sam Donald almost has 400 yards passing I think that we saw in that game you know okay this is gonna be a little bit different with us not having Kenneth Walker here if you're on the Seattle Seahawks side of things but it's so hard to watch the Chargers especially on offense and how much Herbert has really struggled it would I think this goes without saying it would have to be by far the best game of Justin Herbert's season for them to keep this close let alone upset Seattle in this one so I had the Seattle Seahawks at the 10 spot because where I think some teams you know might have viewed the Chargers at this point coming off of looking their wounds a little

1:10:13bit as like a trap game maybe ease up on it a little bit the Chargers aren't really what we thought they were going to be going in the season a Mike McDonald team is not going to do that especially coming off of a loss so I got a lot of faith in them obviously I got that at the 10 spot what about the chiefs and the Raiders three and over to three and no by the way I went to chiefs with this one I put it at the five spots guy like dead in the middle because I wasn't a hundred percent sure about it but I feel pretty confident in it so I put it in confidence rankings you know if there's one thing the Raiders have been good at the last season plus three weeks it's been their run defense and if there's one thing the chiefs have really leaned on so far this season it's been their rushing offense Kenneth Walker's been amazing if the Raiders have a good day just even remotely containing Kenneth Walker and you know forcing the chiefs back into being that one-dimensional pass heavy team that they were the last couple of years without really having a dynamic receiver to speak of I don't think Rashee Rice counts like I'm talking like down in the

1:11:17field receiver yeah you know if we get him into that one-dimensional mode where it's explosives through yak or nothing can can the chiefs still win this game and I'm I hesitate with it so I put it at the five spot I think it's more likely than not that Kansas City wins but like what it shock you if Vegas does for me not really I have the chiefs winning and I have this at the ninth spot and I think wow okay so it would shock you oh my god it's it feels a little disrespectful to how the Raiders have started the year but because I don't want to take credit away from how well the Raiders are playing I just still view this as a little bit of a different tier the chiefs are top three in the NFL in total EPA per play and just well total EPA and I believe EPA per play as well if not top three I believe they're top five in both of those categories the offense is just a

1:12:18well-oiled machine right now you mentioned what Kenneth Walker has been to this team but it's more complimentary for the chiefs than it ever has been and I think that that really matters here and how they're probably going to put a lot of stress on young defenders for the Raiders who are playing well I want to be clear but again I think that there's levels to this and where I think there are a lot closer to what Kansas City has been in years past the way that Kansas City is currently operating especially because when you look at Steve's Magnolo I think he's going to have something up his sleeve for how you slow down this Raiders offense which has been methodical and I think the Kirk's done a really great job Brock Bowers has been awesome when he has been out there especially last week when he was the focal point of that passing game but you and I've talked about this like they might just use a luxurious neat one-on-one against Brock Bowers and like Brock will still get his but I don't think it'll be as easy as it's been in weeks past so I think it'll be a fun game I really do but I've just got so much faith in the chiefs when it comes to how they have moved the ball

1:13:20how they have scored points how repeatable and how explosive it is both in the passing game and the ground game I just think they're going to end up with more points in this game even if it's a better football competition between the two than it has been in years past so I'm taking the chiefs here and I got to have the ninth spot Buffalo and New England where do you got this game so this is my tenner okay I put the bills at ten over no one all right how can you watch Drake May this season and think they're going to win this game I I I have zero confidence in this team it's not it's not really an indictment on their defense it's not indictment on their offensive line like well Campbell has been playing like the best Patriots offensive player who saw that coming after you know the home stretch last year when he was playing banged up but it's true like he has been playing really well but this is a quarterback league whether we like it or not like yes it's 22 on 22 but nobody has a bigger effect on whether or not your team wins or loses in the quarterback

1:14:23and Buffalo has a quarterback that not just raises their floor but also raises their ceiling the Patriots so far have had quarterback play that reduces both makes their floor way lower and I feel like their ceiling is capped at knee height this year so far so I just I don't as odd as it is to say compared to where we were a month ago looking at this team I need to see it to believe it with the Patriots this could very easily be a team that's like bottom 10 or worse I I have the bills winning this game at the eighth spot here so I also see it pretty highly the way that you do and it goes a little bit back to what I talked about with the chargers if they if the charges win their game if the if the Patriots win this game against the bills they will have looked eight this will be by far the best they have ever looked this season like in so many facets of the game and for Buffalo to be a team that just had five turnovers and lost the turnover differential by

1:15:23four and still won the football game I mean that just tells you how genuinely like powerful this team is and how there is no say die with the Buffalo bills the for as much as they can shoot themselves in the foot they still have the players to get out of it in any situation and the way that the Patriots are playing it's really hard to have faith that they're all of a sudden going to be the team that capitalizes on the bills mistakes because last week was the week for the bills to lose you have five turnovers you lost the turnover differential battle by four like that was I'm not saying that the bills are going to go on defeated I don't know if they're going to go on defeated but that's the game that you lose so if you're the Patriots what are you saying well I mean if we if we if we get six turnovers if we get six turnovers then we got a shot you know I just said so look every game starts zero zero every game is different but I agree with you it's it's hard to watch with the Patriots have done and think that they're going to beat this bills team

1:16:25so I got that at the H spot uh Carolina and Detroit Sunday night football here a little prime time in Carolina first time I think it over 10 years that the Carolina Panthers have been on Sunday night football we think about this game the only thing I know for sure is that Detroit's going to score 31 points because that's all they've done all season is just score 31 points the question is can Carolina get to 32 or high maybe or higher or higher maybe I can't I can't figure out the Panthers because every time I feel like I do a star player gets hurt and they just lost JC Horn with the torn quad right like Bryce has been really good but you know the Cleveland defense did clamp down in the red zone force four straight fiegles from them which ultimately you know keeping those sevens from becoming or keeping those threes from becoming sevens is why you know the Browns won that game I still I think I favored Detroit in this one ever so slightly but it's more so

1:17:32because I really don't know what the Panthers are yet I have a pretty good idea of what the the Lions are there are good offense with a shaky at best defense so give me the Lions to win this game I put it at the one spot because I have no idea like I really have no idea who's good away it's I'm taking Carolina I'm taking Carolina here I'll take the Panthers and I'll put this in my three spot I agree with you that I think the Lions are going to score good amount of points I think it's going to be about 25 certainly I don't know how high exactly it is maybe it is exactly 31 but this Lions team is giving up the most passing yards per game of any team in the NFL three or three weeks of the season you look at what Geno Smith was able to do against his defense he was 31 for 37 last week 321 yards three touchdowns no interceptions 129.8 quarterback rating and in 83.8 completion percentage is that all price has had much more good than bad this season

1:18:36and in fact we've talked about it it's sometimes been the best that Bryce Young has looked so I'm going to have faith in Bryce to continue to look really well against one of if not the worst past defense in the NFL and I think because of that I wonder if Carolina who you highlighted this in the season preview show how Carolina all of last year liked to be that team that limited possessions I wonder if there's a little bit of that as well they're still averaging a very high you know like cushion coverage average when they're playing cover three and they're playing that off coverage did they keep things in front of them enough to slow down the game enough to where hey you capitalize on their mistakes a little bit and very clearly in the passing game they're not really able to put a lot of pressure on you or at least they haven't been this season I just I'll I'll I'll have my faith in Bryce Young in this game and how well he has played through the first three weeks of the season I'll take Carolina I got to my three spot there

1:19:36what about the Packers and the Buckeneers what do you got within this game I might regret this I'm going with Tampa wow I put it at my eight spot hold on hold on you know Baker Mayfield's not playing right I I realized that what if you were no sadly no it can't it really can't get too much worse than how the offense is played through the first three weeks of this season so they might get the backup quarterback bump with Jalen Daniels especially from how Jalen Daniels played this preseason you heard it the age spot I put it the spot it's not really a reflection on Tampa like Tampa has been good Green Bay's been atrocious Green Bay's been bad they've been really bad this might be the worst offensive line of football this is the all horrendous vibes bowl it's it's like this is a bad thing of a matchup where two combined fan bases are having less of a

1:20:40good time this season than the Packers facing the Buckeneers both fan bases are doing mock drafts we're not in October yet like that's bad do mocktober you mean like I yeah I I partially put it at the eight spot because I felt like if I knew you weren't gonna pick Tampa I'm assuming you didn't pick Tampa of course not and I was like if there's any game if there's any game especially like a just a gross game that I could build a little bit of a lead on you I was like eight points on Tampa maybe but I don't feel good about it I have Green Bay winning I haven't had a two spot so so if Tampa wins this game you are going to leap me I think in the ranking so we will see you're right I mean Green Bay's offensive line is is bad and it doesn't feel like it's getting any better but man Tampa's been all over the place especially on the offensive side of the ball maybe they do get that backup quarterback bump where you just you don't know what to expect and

1:21:41the kid comes out guns blazing but we will see we will see you got it at the eight spot I got it at the two spot I got Green Bay you got Tampa that's going to be interesting Rams and the Eagles where's this in their rankings so this was right above Kansas City in Vegas I put it the sixth spot because I wasn't sure either way like I was reasonably confident but I wasn't like really really confident in it so I picked the Rams in this one they have their own problems right when you're when you're missing Miles Garrett there is a difference in this pass rush when you're missing Puka there is a difference in this past game Matthew Stafford I don't want to say he's been bad but it hasn't looked like the MVP Stafford of last year basically the only player who's really looked like himself is Devonta Adams and he looks like 29 year old Devonta Adams not for the final one right the defense it feels like it oscillates with each passing week I still can't quite figure them out either so the one reason why I felt good about putting it at the six is because

1:22:47for all the problems the Rams have the Eagles problems are worse yeah right nine possessions last game in six of them were five plays or less like this offense can't do anything and the defense I've I expect a lot more from their defensive line so far this season I'll say that so give me the Rams reasonably confident not super confident at the six spot I get the Rams winning and I have the the seven spot I just man it was it was so out of sync what we saw with the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night football and the first half wasn't horrible but the second half man it was just it was I think the first this end of the spectrum from what we have seen with this Eagles offense not just this year but also in years past as well where it's either they are they are a well oiled machine or it is nothing and there is far too much of both of those realities that exist for me to have a lot of faith in what the Eagles are doing right now especially up front along the offensive line the quick pass in game really got to them against the Bears from Case Kingdom was getting the ball

1:23:49of his hands really quick I think the Rams are going to notice that and try to neutralize the Eagles defensive front in sort of the same ways so give me the Rams in this one I also think that the Rams man very desperate team I mean they're starting you I'm not saying the seasons anywhere close to over for them but they're gonna they have a really rough last six or seven games of the season they got to start stacking some wins together to be okay with you know bouncing around with wins the losses when they get into the late November and December and I think this is one of those pivotal games for them so I'll take the Rams I got this seven spot last game the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons where's this game for you it's like the polar opposite of Bucks Packers as far as vibes it's just fun I think both fan bases are really excited for this you know we know the domes gonna be rocking it's it's 20 years uh 20 year anniversary of you know the gleece in play um it's gonna be an emotional night it's gonna be a super juiced up night but income the Falcons coming off a really excellent win over Green Bay where they just

1:24:53dominated them almost 500 net yards of offense 240 on the ground B-john's looking amazing he's also on the MVP ballot if there was one right now um you know the defense has been super aggressive Michael Pettics started off slow you know two and two two of seven in the first quarter finished darn near perfect in the last three quarters I love this game like I really can't wait to watch this game as a like neutral observer as far as picking it darn near impossible because both of these teams are really explosive they can put up points I'm going Atlanta but I put it at my two spot because I I don't really have a good idea of who's gonna win all I know is this is gonna be phenomenal television like I really really cannot wait for this game uh and I'm I'm very happy to be a third party fan that doesn't have to agonize over it because I know it's gonna be close either way phenomenal television and NFC South matchups have not normally gone in the same

1:25:54sentence over the last couple of years but here we are I do think this is going to be a fun matchup whether that's like super explosive offense is fun or both teams not knowing how to win but at the same time and it's a close game to the very end kind of fun ultimately the Atlanta Falcons uh play man covers at a top 10 rate in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season Tyler Schuck is a top 10 passer at least for passing yards versus man coverage this season I think that that's when he feels very very comfortable and even though the Falcons want to play man coverage I don't know if they have the full secondary to be able to be able to contain this Saints passing attack give me New Orleans in this one I'm gonna take New Orleans at the sixth spot I think that they bounce back and I think that they get a uh division win here thanks for listening to our week four preview podcast listen to NFL pro on the iHeart Radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts