The Roads to Iran falling or Trump failing

0:00Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Belle again. And welcome to the Roads with Belle. Today is September 3rd, 2026. And we're going down the roads to a timeline of Trump's Iran loss and addressing the US position if Iran eventually falls. Yes, I know everybody wants to be on a different timeline than the one we're on. But as long as we're here, we have to know what's going on. We had a question, and it's really worth diving into, to remind people that international conflicts aren't actually about winning the fight. The question is simple. What happens if a wrong collapses under its own weight, or because of inside factionalism, or the protest movement? Does Trump get the credit? It's so important to remember that international conflicts aren't fought simply to knock

1:00the other country down. They're about advancing national interests. They're about convincing nations, not a party to the fight, that it's too risky to challenge your country. It's about fighting in a way that doesn't just win the fight you're currently involved in, but winning the next few fights without a shot ever being fired. Because you demonstrated that the outcome is inevitable. That's how a country, particularly a superpower, maintains the status quo. Because the current state of things has it at the top. Foreign policy is about power, and power perceived is power achieved. Likewise, the perception of weakness and competence and indecisiveness erodes power. Trump heard the clichés over and over again. War is a continuation of politics by other means. We won the battles and lost the war.

2:00Peace through superior firepower. And so on. It's endless. For superpowers and major powers, that means the decision to pursue a war needs to be carefully considered. And the early execution of the war is the most important part. As an example, when Russia botched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and was unable to recover the initiative immediately, within months, you had foreign policy experts saying that, no matter what, Russia had lost the war, even if they ultimately took keep. They undermined their position and shattered the belief that they were something comparable to the old Soviet army. They became weaker. The Russian military has become a meme about failed logistics. And as Ukraine becomes a country that is actually supplying weapons to other countries. It highlights the dangers of a major power starting an elective war and losing.

3:04A timeline of Trump's loss in Iran reveals a lot of the same issues. Overconfidence, memes over strategy, failure to understand the opposition, and electively pursuing an unnecessary war. It started back in June of 2025. Yes, I know the media keeps treating this as if it's not part of it, but it is. This was the original sin. Trump, despite being informed that Iran was not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, launched an attack on Iranian facilities. He was warned that the operation would fail because he was pushing weapons systems beyond their specs. Before the bombing occurred, we went over the systems on the channel and explained how it would fail. Here, Hexeth undoubtedly got an identical briefing in far more detail. But that didn't match the memes, and they chose memes. Predictably, the operation failed.

4:06The embarrassment led Trump to continue to push an issue that, according to his own intelligence people, didn't exist. Even in February of 2026, he decided to go full-bore along with Israel and strike again at Iran. Trump and Hexeth failed to establish any defined victory conditions or strategic objectives. Instead, he simply demanded unconditional surrender, suggested regime change, said the US would destroy the Iranian Navy, demanded an end to a weapons program, and so on. Then the fighting commenced without a real strategic plan for defeating the opposition. The US had individual targets to apply pressure on the Iranian government, rather than conducting a full-on campaign. Once that failed, the US could never actually win the war and advance its interests. It couldn't emerge from the war in a better position than it started, especially after

5:12Iran responded by successfully striking the US and its allies. Casting the perception that Iran was as powerful as the US, or at least in the same weight class, power perceived is power achieved. Then the US couldn't force the straight open. It added to the loss. Then, there was the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. It was basically a US surrender, and then Trump's ego got the better of him. Or maybe he realized he didn't have the power to follow through, and he pulled out. This added to the perception that Iran and the US were on equal footing. Then, there was another lowland fighting. Then it resumed, as Trump seemed to desperately try to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, Trump has been reduced to threatening to target Iranian tankers in response to Iran hitting ships going through the strait.

6:14That's an open admission that the US can't control the strait. By the way, oil is a global market. Disrupting Iranian oil via a tanker for tanker policy, heading to countries not cooperating with Trump, will raise oil prices elsewhere. Not to mention the environmental issues that could occur if the US actually sinks an oil tanker. Now the economic sanctions have been expanded, and those don't have a great track record for success. It's important to understand that the US achieved none of Trump's loosely defined victory conditions. The US has lost the respect of allies the world over. The perception that the US could defeat any nation states military quickly, which is something the US excelled at for decades is gone. The idea that the US could easily handle other militaries was a major source of US power.

7:18It's severely damaged now. Even if Iran's government was to collapse tomorrow via some unconnected event, or even because Trump's erratic policies actually worked. The price paid by the US was too high. And there would be no way of knowing whether the next government would be friendly to the US, or whether they would pursue a nuke, or whether this action caused other nations to want a nuke. It would still be a US loss, because now there's no way for the US to leave the fight in a better place than when Trump chose to start it. So there you go. A little more information, a little more context, and having the right information will make all the difference. Y'all have a good day.