The Newspaper Panel

0:00Good morning, you're very welcome to the show. So obviously there's a lot going on. The papers are dominated by two stories really and then the other headlines dominated by a third story. So let's look at the front pages of the papers first. The Sunday Times budget, Harris pledges income tax cuts to be inflation. And they're also saying Jennifer Brain Claire Scott writing that inheritance tax will be caught across the board in the 2027 budget. What that means in effect is that the thresholds for inheritance tax for when you start paying it will go up. The business post Harris pushes workers budget as corporate tax surges to 37 billion. But I see he's saying elsewhere in this Sunday Times, I think that the looming surge in corporation tax receipts will not be used for taxpayers, give away budget. That's the looming right now anyway folks. The Sunday independent

1:01has that an extra two billion has been near marked in the budget for a public sector pay increases may re-region writing that the government will satisfy this money for a public sector's pay deal as it seeks to stave off a winter of discontent. And then of course Sunday independent also leading with events around the football match against Italy tensions flare and hungry ahead of Israel clash. The mail on Sunday has a quote this is from Gavin Brasuno. I'm against atrocities, not Jews are Israelis and of course he has been the one player who has no decline to play that match. The Irish Sunday Merer is leading with F.A.I board in Moscow that's Sinn Fein T.D. Joanne and the sun on Sunday, hame in a pitch battle. Players vote as B.Zun who quits more match talks for today. Now our panel this morning to deal with all that and more Professor Alan Byrett is a research professor at the ESRI. Oshin Cochland is a public policy advisor. Linda O'Reilly is managing

2:07editor at the Anglo-Selt newspaper and Mary Regan is political editor of the Irish and Sunday independent. Good morning everybody. And what we might do first is if you put on your headphones and let's go to RT soccer correspondent Tony Adonu. Good morning Tony again. Good morning Brandon. So we spoke to you yesterday and I think at that point you were starting to wonder if today's match between the Republic of Ireland and Israel might not go ahead. Obviously a very dramatic 24 hours since. Where are things at this morning? Drama is right. Yeah when I spoke to you yesterday the scheduled press conference had been postponed. The training session then was also postponed. The peer that the players had had an agreement when they were in Prishtina in Kosovo that they were all committed and then they were just putting a statement together because they were agreeing gestures they were going to make in support of the people of Gaza and against the war there.

3:11And it appears that Gavin Bazouna was having some misgivings originally. It felt that he was committed with the rest of them. The captain Daro Oshin had asked for everyone to be on the same page. We're all in it together sort of thing. But Gavin was orange to sleep on it but on Saturday morning he went to Heymeer Hall Grumson and told him he in all conscience wasn't happy about playing the two fixtures with Israel. He didn't want to withdraw from the squad. He just didn't want to play in those two games. So he said he would be available for the game against Austria and other games in the group. He was obviously available in Kosovo as a substitute goalkeeper behind Queen being Kelleher. And this then like hours of conversation. Yes. Yes. hours and hours of conversation and you really have to wonder how we got to this. You know like less than 24 hours or 24 hours before kickoff in the first of the contentious games against Israel and the players are having a vote. I mean some of the players have barely have

4:14barely been in the squad before. There's Liam Kitchen, Joel Began, Owen Elding has just been around the squadron the trip to Canada. They've yet to win a cap for Ireland, Rocco Vata. James a banquet made his first competitive start in that game against Kosovo. And so these guys who may or may not have been canvassed when Heymeer Hall Grumson was asking all his cares. It beggars belief. And then Hall Grumson to say yesterday in the press conference that he had spoken to all the players, but crucially he hadn't spoken to the goalkeepers. Now you won't believe this. He suggests that was someone else's job. Yes. Yeah. Well there is the goalkeeping coach. He's a fellow Icelander, Gumi Hararzen. And I guess he delegated that one to the goalkeeping coach, but you're not going to believe this. Yeah. This this morning the latest development in the in the UEFA list of Irish players for tonight's game. Gumi Don, the Queen's Park Rangers midfielder

5:17is registered as a goalkeeper because the UEFA rules dictate that you have to have three goalkeepers. So queuing Kelleher, Max Soleri and an outfield player Gumi Don is also registered as a goalkeeper tonight. Now this this is this is giving me terrible side pan vibes. I have to say I mean, you know, between player votes between the the the the the world coming out of the camp the Gavin Bazouna was in his own room while the vote was going on. Like how isolated must he have felt, you know. I mean people's you know, Sipto have asked already about that vote that it needs scrutiny. They were asking what were the players exactly as to vote on was it a secret ballot? Was it a show or hands? What information were the players given before that vote? And this begs a big question as well. There was a time when Hamer Halgamson said very year ago or so that for the Irish players, the short seems very heavy. That was his language. He was talking about a confidence issue that the

6:20players seem to have. And there was talk of, you know, like most professional sports these days, talk about employing a sports psychologist, but he said that the budget was limited. And on that basis, he employed a fitness coach and athletic performance coaches that are called Pepe Lazaro instead. But like the best teams in Ireland and the amateur teams, the Limri Carler's to Rowan, Tipperary, they've employed Caroline Carler as a sports psychologist. And for Shamrock Rovers, I only noticed this recently, Shamrock Rovers came from behind twice to beat Waterford. Said a couple of Fridays ago now. And at the end of the game, every single player went to and huged Mary Larkin. She's been the sports psychologist with them. Along with the managers, Steven Bradley, and he said, Tony, did Hamer Halgamson seem like somebody who might need a might have needed a sports psychologist himself in that press conference? Didn't he? He's on the edge too, is he? Well, even even before yesterday's press conference and and what all had gone

7:23before it, even in Kosovo before the game, he seemed he was speaking more slowly. He seemed very downbeat. And that's clearly not the, I mean, as I said, footballers don't need excuses, but maybe that was part of the reason this way. So heavily on them that the performance against Kosovo was so poor. But I do want to say, I think it's important that that every professional team as a sports psychologist know what went on yesterday for the vote, the four or five hours conversation, the drafting of statements. These are young men that this shouldn't be their concern ahead of representing their country. And it has been a fiasco and it continues to be. And at this point, discussions were told are ongoing at the moment, the match is on. But if the vote has some suggests when 148 with 22 of the 24 squad players, not voting at Gabbana Zunu and Jimmy Don, are there seven or eight players who now feel they don't want to play either and will have to

8:24play against their will if they're to to show a united front? Yeah, so the all for one you talk to Boge is gone out the window, yeah? Looks like it, yeah? Yeah. Okay. Do you think they're going to be further developments as the day goes on Tony? Do you think this story won't be over yet? I think so, yeah. You know, they spoke about the gestures that they might make, you know, that they were black armaments that they wouldn't shake hands with the Israeli players yesterday and their press conference later in the day. The Israeli players said that, of course, if anyone offers to shake hands, they'll shake their hands. And then he suggested that the Irish players should go and visit Israel and read a bit more about the country and educate themselves. So that's where we're at. Yeah. Yeah, I think there's also suggesting that Israeli players are going to put their hands out and put the Irish players into position where they seem to be refusing to shake their hands. Okay, listen, Tony Adonu, I know it's probably terribly busy out there and thank you so much for taking the the time to talk to us again this morning and I can hear between the lines and in your voice,

9:29you're just me at how this ends up, thanks Tony. Cheers, Andrew. Alan Baris, your football man. Yeah, it's, well, it's a mess. I mean, I suppose that's the, the first thing to say about this, the coverage of newspapers need to say is very, very interesting. I mean, I think it sort of breaks down into two broad themes. The first team is, is Twitter and not the game should go ahead. So the very broad issue that we've been talking about for quite a while. The second theme though is really about the way the process has evolved and you'd have to say that the FAAI in particular come in for extraordinary criticism. Has Tony said there, at least Ponchi young friends, some of them have barely been with this group very long or completed and yeah, and no support there. They're probably getting phone calls from friends and family at home. All kinds of, well, this seems to be part of the, the discussion. There's a suggestion that because a lot of these

10:29players are based in the United Kingdom and elsewhere that they may not have even been sort of fully sensitized to the strength of feeling that there is in Ireland and that this would have first sort of, they wouldn't have come aware of this for the first time when they were in training camp just before the cost of a game. So it isn't unfolding situation, but there's like a very strong sort of sense in the in the newspapers that had the FAAI simply said a number of months ago, we are not going to play these games. It certainly would have given sort of certainty. It would have taken the players out of this awful situation. And again, how bad would the kind of consequences seem to be big? No, I think this is part of the difficulty. Nobody really knows. And again, just back to the players, I mean, where I feel incredibly sorry for them as individuals. Most of our players are not playing sort of in the premier ship or whatever like that or in the championship and elsewhere. The international window from a professional perspective, this matters enormously. This is really, really a chance for them to sort of showcase their skills. In addition to representing

11:34their country and everything like that, and again, there aren't that many international games. So this matters enormously. So you can imagine again, just the dilemma that as players that they are facing. It's also a team game. And you can imagine that sort of, I think we've all been in this situation whereby you might have a view on something, but it takes a extraordinary moral courage to sort of, you know, if you think of this, have a different view to stand up. So that's sort of a group dynamic, I think, is something that's tremendously difficult. Yeah. And politicians continue to claim that this is nothing to do with them. No, I don't think they can, but they will. But I think there will be contagion now. Will there? No, like I think from like from day one, the government took a decision that this is nothing got to do with us. And then even up to yesterday, the statement coming from the Department of Sports was that the FII is autonomous and it's independent and then matterlies with the FII. You know, I think that in decatio, the sort of lack of, like the whole reason this mess is here in the first place is because of a lack of leadership. The government saying it's nothing to do

12:36with us. The FII seemed to be saying all along that it's not, you know, within their gift to make such a decision, you know, that they have other factors under their remit that they have to consider, which are financial and otherwise. And maybe somewhere along the way, the government should have indicated to the FII. If you want to make this decision, maybe, you know, take it out of our hands directly, but if you make this decision, FII, we will back you on this and they never did that. And now it's coming back to the players. And I think the only people, the only ones that seem to have worn out of all of this is there was a line in the papers today from the Israeli Football Association in reaction to all of this saying football has won. So, you know, Israelis is happy. And I don't think anyone in Ireland is happy today with the outcome. Or shing, you know that thing about in an organization, X-German flows downhill and it says, flow downhill and hit the guys on the bottom here. No, I'm not sure. So unfair that these young men, like, boys, almost some of them, I've been asked to act like the UN Security Council as much as players,

13:3824 hours before this game. It's just so unfair and they have been failed by UEFA, by the FII and by the government. You were asked about this, Mary Ward was the spokesperson for the government on the Saturday panel here yesterday. And he was basically, oh, if we can't tell the FAA AI what to do, you'll be giving out to us if we did. And the other politicians were saying, no, we're asking you to say, you should have said, if you decide not to play, we have your back, we will make good on the financial repercussions. But again, it can't early in the weekend, I mean, did he say then, I think he did say then, we would have backed the FAA, didn't he? Yeah, but he didn't, well, he was, he would back them, but yeah. And that was news, I think, to a lot of people that, you know, they didn't say it, you know, you could have been news to him, so they didn't say it in advance. In a timely fashion to allow the FAA to make the decision, knowing they had that support. And what the FAA AI is, Ken Erlie has this in the weekend section of the Irish Times yesterday, saying basically, you know, the FAA position amounts to, we approve of your mass order, or disapprove of your mass order, but not enough to sacrifice United Nations

14:39COP nation's lead points. So like the FAA AI has failed the players. And the fact that poor old Galen Bazoon was not even in the room yesterday for the vote or the discussion, that seems very strange. But again, I mean, Tony, Tony Dunne was asking questions about the procedures for the vote, but we shouldn't be talking about the procedures for a vote of players about how they respond to an international situation like this. Yeah, I think a lot of people think it is important today after it's to go for hands in front of the FAA AI. Now he's setting my mind to side to you, Ken. I think it's a disgrace that this has been left at the feet of the players. I talk about a political football, absolutely FAA. I should have stood up and taken leadership on this from the ghetto, and the government should have done so. I mean, it's easy for the government to say, well, neither of the fixtures are now happening in our country. So, you know, what can we do? But I mean, I quote Micheal Martin this week at the UN General Assembly when he said, let it not be said that we did not act, you know, in the context of Israel and Palestine and Gaza. And now this match is going ahead. And the players have been

15:45left in this awful, awful position. And I do think the dynamics of how the vote was conducted are important. And I agree with Tony, there could be further developments on this today. I agree. Mary, just before I can I want to ask Alan the question, just to inject the other side of the argument into this that, you know, that you engage with countries that the football players are not the Netanyahu regime that you know should play them. I mean, the argument is familiar. I have to say from a personal perspective, I think the the stakes are so high here, though, the awfulness of what has happened in Gaza and what is now happening on the West Bank is such that I find it difficult to rely on that argument. But just to put you a little bit, the notion that the government are at fault here. I mean, I do have to say, I think this is the responsibility of the FAAI. I don't particularly want to live in a state

16:47whereby the government supports organizations who you can and can't play for. You know, we do live in a free society. And I think by blaming the government, it actually takes responsibility away from the FAAI. I think they were the primary decision makers here. They should have made the decision. And the notion that anyone here does anyone here, some of the players, there have been various kind of protests against them. Their names called out a protest. There have been kind of dark suggestions that this is going to be reputationally damaging for them and everything. Does anyone here think any of those players are at fault for going out and playing that much later? No. But there, and does everyone agree there will be people who think they are very... I didn't think the players should be faulted and I thought they were sort of the victims of a lack of leadership here. But I read Fergal Keens piece on the Sunday Independent and he says, Gavin, the Zooners Lone Act of bravery, will be remembered in the broken alleys of Gaza. And he's making the point that sports people are obliged to take a moral stand. And he gives this really

17:48harrowing story about when he was in Gaza 20 years ago and amidst all the ravaged place, there were still kids playing football and amongst them was someone who grew up to become he was described as the Palestinian Pele and he went on to play football and he coached younger kids and just last year as he was queuing for food at a distribution site in southern Gaza. He was killed by Israeli fire and you know Fergal Keen is making the point. He refers to the rugby players who took a stance back the Irish rugby players against South Africa during the apartheid era. And in the end of his piece he said he would not presume to tell the players to boycott or not to boycott but there's a touch of infantilizing along going on with all the talk of them being trapped or caught in a situation not of their own making and the Zooners has shown their grownups with heart and that's the hard part. It's really hard. But like I think some people would feel on the other hand

18:48that these young men were bounced into a situation that could know have dire effects on their lives. I'm sorry having said that going back to the point about the T-shirt in the UN standing up and making a speech that got plotted he was he was actually applauded by the Palestinian delegates there and his whole entire point is you know what do we do now how will this be remembered and the shame in years to come and then within three days the government's whole Palestinian stance has been sort of called into question. There are a lot of young people making very principle not a huge cost themselves a lot of them but making very principled uh... stances and you know some people call it virtue singing or whatever but who are very much uh engaged with this issue and would are taking stances on it. Yes and I mean I think it's again it's so unfair in the players but when it got to the crunch point yesterday they were they were given a vote and once the one unfortunately once they were given a vote then it then it does become their responsibility a little bit and I also think maybe this has been forgotten at the time of the decision making back a few months ago the fact that it comes three days after Netanyahu's

19:52speech at the UN where he just dismissed all of the international. Did any of those there seen Netanyahu's speech at the UN let's face it. Well probably not I'm sure the might have seen it since as everybody here says they're bound to be getting influenced from outside people as well family members friends different people calling them telling them what their their shoulder shouldn't do in this situation and yet look they've been left in an impossible position and I mean a vote of 14 to 8 that doesn't even include uh... bazuna that's a that's a very very divided uh... dressing room and large on the sides of the majority of the card of the year. Okay okay with me not marching really briefly is the shame is in the future when we know everything we know enough now the shame is now. I think he made that point like I think he did. The shame is now and the action needs to be now and I'll be everybody's part. Yeah yeah and Ireland has not has not been phone wanting to keep driving around the country. Okay so look the other um um um um um omni shambles that is going on this morning is the standoff continuing in Portodone as thousands

20:57of people are blocking the Garvahi road to prevent an orange order parade going down the road for the first time in 28 years 28 years we've been cast back here so as a result of the protest the the PSN are have not cleared the marchers to travel the the ruche um Allison Morris crime corresponded with the battlefields telegraph is at the Garvahi road good morning Allison. Good morning. What's the scene there now? Well I have been here from the the early hours of the morning and even then when I raised there was several cities and people that was ours before the the orange order parade was due to take place. There's still crud, sprouting crudes and so the three separate locations along the Garvahi road blocking this area many of them are residents of the area but there are also a lot of people who have been Boston or who have driven and arrived here to to show support and they are showing new signs of standing down. Often John Cree Hill the 35 orange men who determination said goodbye to this road are camped up there and it really is a case of who blinks

21:58first. The PSN are in the area but quite a low sort of profile I would say for now. There's a lot of um the the PSN I jeeps are parked in sage streets rather than to the confrontationally approaching the protesters but they have sounded a few warnings and that this is not a notified gathering and people for a guy that could face a rash but so far now I have made absolutely no attempt to try and clear the road or clear the way. Or politicians are there Allison. Well there's Claire Holland later the STLP I noticed earlier just a McNulty staff STLP is here Mary Luke McDonald and Michelle O'Neill are also here alone with other Shunfian rats from the the sort of Lurgan and Porta Dine area. They have come out and spoke to the residents just after eight when I prayed was due to take place. They were given a fairly fairly warm welcome but there were shites of bring it down bring stormant down from some of those gathered here clearly on Hoppe at this turn of events in our blaming and stormant in the lack of delivery from the executive on that but you know they spoke to people and then they have left but I think they're

23:02still and being told they're still somewhere close by in this area they haven't left Porta Dine but they're just not on the road as I speak. So as a spark as a spark then Allison sorry there's a bit of a delay there so I jump into a movie as a spark then of something else how could this play out is it likely to escalate what do you think are the implications of it? Well look the time has come in a given pass since the orange memorandum march that was to be between eight and half nine at the latest they're they're still here and they're still insisting they're going to get down this road the residents are saying under no circumstances and anytime they're there night the mother harm any so then comes down to not just the PS and I and the chief constable but also the secretary of state so I'm just don't know whether many of your listeners know this was in the high court until the early hours of this morning there was a case yesterday taken by the residents and a judge granted them a temporary injunction that was a peeing and the appeal was heard by our lady chief justice she overturned that ruling and then there was another another ruling with another

24:02judge who listened to all the the submissions again and overturned the injunction dear loudest to go ahead that was on to the early hours it's morning in people who were up in Balsas for that court case left and travel down here and have been on this road ever since some of them haven't slept in two days I don't know how long this could go on for and told that that's termination could still be laid until midnight tonight so at any time they could the the PS man could attempt to push it down look what I would say is this is really peaceful and there are it's properly steered it under people telling any young people here hang it around to behave but I don't know what's going to happen when they time falls and that's what the worry would be okay Alison Morris crime carstor I know with the bad fast telegraph thank you very much I'm oh she's it's kind of like really in the years or something oh god but not in the worst possible way I mean you have to wonder how do we get to this situation and it seems that it partly was another a minister of oversized in that the praise commission intended to to disallow the march again as the half of the last 28 years

25:03but that was overturned on a court ruling earlier in the summer because they didn't do it procedurally correctly they weren't all there and that meant it was brought back and the armed order made a much reduced application which was granted but you do kind of wonder like for the last 28 years there's been there's been relative peace yeah like is it like is it worth it is it worth it to just be able to walk down this road to cause this level of for this this level of of sectarians this content to be stoked up again you would it is really heartbreaking and it's now long longer than the troubles are tough to that part of the world and near enough to have lived with with this does this alarm you yeah absolutely it's it's re you mentioned reeling in the years it's really disheartening to hear us to see it the area that that we published to is is the border region it's Calvin and Monahons so obviously both communities there as well but largely republican I would suggest yeah please to hear the latest from the front line is that

26:06things seem to be peaceful and well policed and martian at the moment um what does it suggest is there is sleeping giant up there all the time like that can kick off that's a good way to describe it as a sleeping giant um I mean I don't think people can underestimate the emotion that situations like this um can can stir up yeah explain it to us because a lot of people in in the republic don't understand it well people who were displaced you know maybe had to to leave northern Ireland and move to counties like like Calvin and Monahons we obviously had the Oma Bamanquiry continuing this week as well um it's it's it's it's really really difficult um and this as I said people from both sides of the community and have been living I think won't somebody made the point in the green room that we've had peace the peace process longer nearly at this stage than we had said yeah the pure reality is actually the normal for a lot of people

27:09I got a lot of young people like the the generation that being third level now don't really remember this and don't really get why people are getting so excited but I mean this this particular march was a major flashpoint for some very serious violence young people were were killed in Monahons the Quimbrodys um I mean it's the principle of the thing and it's a perfect example of where what happened in the courts and the law it just doesn't reflect the reality on the ground and and the potential for that standoff with the orange order insisting that it's it's their right on their history to march then this particular route which is now largely nationalist as as we know and the PS and I have to do what they consider to be the best thing on the ground at the moment because there obviously have to uphold the law of the land on peace as well not just a ruling in the early hours of of this morning um so yeah disappointing that it's come back nearly three three decades later can I make sort of just two quick points yes honest so the first is I think for

28:13a lot of a strong Cree one of the long lasting memories is Ian Paisley and David Trimble walking down with her arms up and that very triumphalist to where dancing is our for you exactly it was a horrible moment I think you know in history for a variety of reasons but of course it's not too long after that David Trimble did was sort of central to the the good of my dear agreement and subsequently that Ian Paisley true St Andrews did actually operate you know the the executive and so in particular people would say acted very courageous no complete but this is the this is the important point it really is time for political leadership in in Northern Ireland and sometimes political leadership is telling your constituency things they don't want to necessarily hear and on on both sides of the divide at the the the following point to see some unionist politicians sort of you know backing all this in spite of all the hurt that it's going to bring up it would have been great if some of the Ulster unionist politicians or du people had

29:14sort of said this this really shouldn't happen but aligned to that I think it would be very very helpful if Sinn Fein people stopped celebrating the volunteers as they call them and when you have these very public demonstrations in favor of people who who murdered lots of people on both sides of the divide there needs to be a sort of a dialing back to get us out of this situation and it requires political leadership and telling your constituency what they don't necessarily want to hear just the other very very quick point on this though is a couple of weeks ago I think probably in this studio and otherwise people were having conversations about a united Ireland and me Hall Martin we talked earlier about about his speech at the the United Nations he didn't speak of the doll though about the united Ireland being a sort of a you know a hard slog in terms of winning out people over and understanding people's positions and everything like that and I think this is just a reminder that Northern Ireland is still a very very complicated place and so when we discuss Northern Ireland and the possibility of the United Ireland we in this out just need to be much more sensitized and an understanding of the sort of difficulties that are there okay we'll

30:14take a break professor Alan Bard or Shane Cochland Lindor Riley and Mary Wiggins staying with us Brandano Conner on RTE Radio 1 sponsored by Toyota good things happen when you're relentless about better Toyota built for a better world entertainment on RTE Radio 1 the Lord of the Rings the fellowship of the ring live the critically acclaimed Oscar-winning film on the big screen and Oscar-winning soundtrack performed live by a 100-piece orchestra with adult and children's choirs three arena Dublin Sunday October 11th for two unmissible performances only tickets for the matinee and evening shows available now from ticket master and singular artists. .hi Entertainment on RTE Radio 1 after 75 years protecting homes across Ireland we know that no two from no shoes in the house homes shoes to the dog has his own share homes what always gets a warm welcome is great value so you could save up to 31% when you buy your home insurance online

31:20at zurik.i.e protect your world for less with zurik insurance use promo code protect when you buy online offer includes 10% discount if you've made no claims in four years or more new customers only minimum premium applies visit zurik.i.e for full-teason scenes zurik insurance euro bagies authorized by the federal financial supervisory authority bath and in germany and is regulated by the central bank of Ireland for consumer protection moves. The perfect breakfast on the go we've cracked it the centra egg muffin with a delicious super-quince sausage egg and cheese and a regular frankenonist hot coffee for just six euro so when you want to taste he start to the day muffin compares plus catch your seventh coffee free by downloading the mycentra app today centra live every day text 51551 brand no corner on rtae radio one welcome back our panel are still with us but porn shrunk from stuff hitting them from all corners and we have more rowing of the alambard option cocklin linda roilly and marie-rigan still with us marie-rigan before you tell us

32:24what we know about the budget which is pretty much everything now today tell us a bit what's the dynamic between finnefall and finnegel on on the budget on announcing budgetary things and on that dissing other people's suggestions and all that is the two of them like in open warfare here like i i think that has been a problem over the past two weeks it's kind of settled down actually i have to say in a couple of days but the problem with the the budget is all about the narrative and having control of the narrative and what you usually see in the run of the budget is individual ministers saying this is what i want so i'm going to sort of put it out there and tell journalists that this is what i want and this is what i'm getting as a way of sort of trying to strong arm the money the money ministers this year i don't think the money ministers are kind of having any of it they're kind of trying to take control of the process take control of the narrative and for that reason they're shooting down kites or pulling down kites as soon as they're being flown but this has

33:24led to like a bit of a tricky situation where you had the t-shirt and his housing minister talking for example about housing measures about scrapping stamp jutsi for first time buyers and then Simon Harris who's you know gift it would be within to to to approve such a measure saying very publicly that this is not happening you know and like the dynamics going on there are that finnefall like if you recall just back to this time last year finnefall were in a really bad position post presidential jim gavin and all of that and there was a promised a backbencher so that a grayshare say in part you policy okay so in this budget they backbencher's are trying to have their say and the leadership in finnefall seems to be allowing them to kind of air their budget wish lists lists in public but Simon Harris is fairly probably not wanting those things to get out there and and and and and slapping down but i think the real dynamic now going on in the budget is at the eleventh hour

34:25the script has been torn up because energy okay this is meant to be a good budget for the government it was about cutting income tax that didn't happen last year it was about giving more money back to parents who reducing childcare costs all of that it was meant to be good budget and then with two weeks to go the global energy crisis worsened and looked like it's here to stay okay they're forcing everything we are still getting people are still getting the the tax we have the increase absolutely but the the sort of the glow on that is sort of being kind of taken off let's say because everyone is worried about energy costs you know the price of the pump going up at home heating oil going up massively and that that is that is the pinch point for the government that's the negative for the government coupled with that you have public sector workers threat threatening strike action in the weeks ahead and suddenly what was all looking very very nice and rosy is turning to sort of the clouds are gathering so what we're seeing in today's papers Simon Harris is speaking about he's saying that the income tax cuts will keep a pace with

35:27inflation and he's saying it'll amount to around 400 400 euro a year that's what workers will get back so i think he's trying to get the message across you know this is a good budget you will get something it will help with the cost of living and on the public sector pay a lot of people i've been speaking to during the week in government are kind of just really frustration that strikes are coming down the track when they are when when a they're the talks haven't even started yet and be they're saying we are putting a lot of money in this budget it will be planned for even though the talks aren't yet happening the budget will make allowance they want to to keep this social until later in the year yeah yeah but the money will be there in the budget will be in the estimates so for few basically has as hurry jacked at everything as they kind of a populist is is possibly a non-fair word but it is the issue right now um Alan Barrett you said courting exercise and fuel is the worst way of managing the current energy shock you said that this week didn't you uh well if i didn't i i should have

36:29that's a thanks for filling in that gap right you know my court of road is something there yesterday i saw you had said it so yeah no i mean representing you look everybody understands that there are huge pressures here so i i don't want to suggest otherwise there's just there's there's a there's a range of different ways of giving reliefs to people in in in this area and the problem with cutting taxes on fuels is you give the biggest tax break to the wealthiest okay so it's well established in the data this isn't we talking off the top my head so i can rely on the research of ESRI colleagues on this um because richer people tend to have bigger cars bigger homes a whole range of other things they spend more on energy so when you cut taxes you're giving a higher tax break uh to the people who need it at least okay so on the assumption that we generally don't have policies where we line people up and say well you know can the richest come forward forward first so we can give them the most money okay do try and do things a little bit differently yeah but you realize it would be it would be political suicide at this point

37:29for them this is why i made the career choice i made okay i became an economist politician a politician there are for example even even energy credits okay which are the same amount for every household are better okay because at least you're giving the same amount to every household but what would be better still if we can try and target this to a much greater degree and i happen to be in the iraqtis the budget oversight committee during the week and as we were discussing these very issues there's a strange thing here um there's always this idea oh well it's very hard to do targeting uh but if you look at Susie grants for example uh for the the kids going to universities if you look at the website and see there's a very uh sort of fine degrees there about where your income is and and how much you get in terms of grants and subsistence payments and everything like that so i'm just one of those people and again but do you think they'd be better off just to back up the truck a second there would they be better off giving out and the energy credits than what they're doing at the moment with fuel you're nodding or shing yes i thought you were against that kind of thing well everything is bad

38:33also so the exercise usually cuts us out and is described is the worst so the the the universe energy credit at least the price thing is still there get off diesel as soon as you can get off petrol as soon as you can but in the meantime here is some money you can spend it on diesel if you need to uh are if you manage to get off diesel you can spend it on something else of your own choosing okay better so you you want the price signals to be there to drive heap to encourage people away from yeah just to just to say this as as i have to support people yes in the current situation but we're getting the balance wrong and we're using the wrong measures i mean it's it four years ago when the last fossil fuel price crisis happened when russia invaded ukraine at full scale there maybe was a really an excuse by saying we weren't ready for targeting you know we we we have to do an universal credit but it's four years later now okay still making the same excuse and they could have they could use the sucesses or even i know such a desire to say the way to do more generally is never mind the income tax bans but increase the income tax credits which again benefit the lower paid more yeah and they are and i'll say in their defense they are um

39:36expanding the the fuel allowance and that is a very finely targeted thing Linda i suspect that uh fuel is a very different thing for you in your life and your neighbors than it is for me petrol for example and everything uh living in a city and living in the country it's a much more visceral issue is that i agree with what the the lads have said i agree with their points on paper but in reality in rural counties like kavana man and longfurt and we don't have the transport links there and we we're relying on kerosene to heat our homes because we don't necessarily all have access to to the gas networks and so on and so forth like my own household there's six people living in it four of them are adults to them are in college we have three cars in our household soon to be four car household um and you have no alternative as you see it we don't we don't i mean we just a case in point um my son is in first year during engineering in a go away

40:42and there there is a boss that he can access from kavanaugh to go away via atlone passes through the village that we live in but doesn't stop unless you make efforts to walk in an advance contact the bus driver etc they've just bypassed that village no no they've worse than that they've actually bypassed the bypassed the village very recently with a new road and didn't put in an infrastructure for a bus stop or a bus shelter there's just no joined up thinking there like fuel is is is a very real issue in in a border county um it was talk about the kerosene for example there and taking the carbon tax away uh it's gonna make little or no difference because i think a thousand liters of oil at the moment is about sixteen hundred euros this time last year which was about nine hundred euros um as it stands if you're to get that oil the kerosene north of the border uh a thousand liters you're talking about a difference three hundred and fifty euros so even if the were to take the carbon tax away that would at best maybe ligate that by

41:44fifty percent you can't buy your oil across the border well you're not supposed to but that's not to say that that isn't happening i mean uh smuggling has been an occupation along the border for the longest time but there are many households who would go across the border in some cases weekly because there has been a bit of a clamp turn on the other side as well where they're literally filling up drums of kerosene bringing back uh week by week month by month to heat their homes not a great thing to be doing uh and so come here is fuel would you say is it the biggest issue in your community i would cost so far up until very recently it would have been housing but fuel and cost of living is starting to to overtake that now uh because the energy prices and the cost fuel filters down to everything the the dinner you're eating on your table um to even the the price of building a home if you think of the machinery and the fuel that's needed to fuel those machines it filters down to absolutely everything and uh it's it's keenly felt in more rural areas

42:48very i'm just thinking here that i think there be people in government listening very uh tentively this morning to economists and environmentalists saying that uh energy credits aren't necessarily the worst idea on planet earth because i think there are people in government who wouldn't mind you know throwing an energy credit into this budget it's been a little doubt by the heat of the tonnish the exactly politically it would be great it would uh you know ease concerns over energy costs it could come out of the surplus because it's one off and it could stay off a lot of political pressure but i think because it's universal it's against the sort of policy approach the government is taking too many things but do you think it's absolutely ruled out or do you think there's a chance i think well it's been well it's been it seemed to think everything's influx so the panicking about the use of the internet but we still have a week and a half to go and i wouldn't be surprised if there was a tiny sliver of an idea there about energy credits uh i wouldn't entirely rule it out for clarity for the record that would be if you let exercise

43:50duties begin to go back up again on the first of ember as currently planned and it would be if you don't take yeah which we've been told is not happening i would i would i i mean i i wouldn't be complaining if you pause the increases of carbon tax on caracene diesel and petrol but that is two cent per liter the increases are two cent per liter they're not what's causing the increase it's her moves that's causing the increase but if you take the 16 cent again as you said it won't make that much difference to the to the price if you take the carbon tax off but it takes away 160 million of euro that could be spent on on support is another way if you if you take all that revenue away from caracene i think there's talk of looking for another vectorage as well or something isn't there and i can't say listen um so uh just just so i know what the policy is that we're presenting to the government you're saying or she needs energy credits but if they do that they have to let the few go back correct okay yeah i think they i think they prefer Mary's take on it which is just that's the usual that of cake this in the trick before before we we leave that there's a piece in this only independent uh linda by Ali Bracken and it's a very simple piece

44:54and it's based on what you were talking about there cost of living is largest factor affecting mental health and it makes complete sense doesn't it? it does um people are not complicated um you know they they they go to third level they maybe get a degree they get a decent job they have a career uh they they've done everything that their parents told them to do or taught them to do and they still find themselves in the position where maybe they're unable to get on the housing ladder or they're having to make decisions and i'm not necessarily talking about the poorest people in society though many of them have to make these decisions too but i'm talking about making a decision today uh can i afford to bring myself to the doctor um because i'm sick or should i bring my child um maybe skipping a meal looking at the fuel gauge in the car trying to to cut journeys or stretch the mileage to payday um you know the the social contract seems to have have been broken you know and people are living with ongoing stress in terms of everything they can

45:55be under every decision yeah and of course we do know that the the biggest cause of marriage you know there's all kinds of factors but the biggest cause of marriage break up is usually money probably and then you end up having to live in the property with your divorced partner because you can't afford to get divorced or remove out that's i i i know friends who are living in that situation okay we'll take a break professor Alan Bard or shin kaklin lindo roiley and Mary Regan staying with us friend and o'connor on i te radio one one double the speed for the same price in the virgin media sale get one gig broadband for only 35 euro a month that's super fast one gig speeds for the same 500 meg price so double the speed and switch today at virginmedia.i virgin media it's playtime subject allocation availability new customers only one gig broadband only 35 euro a month for 12 months 80 euro thereafter offer ends 14th of October season sees apply c virgin media dot i e are you looking for a used car from a reputable dealer

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48:03okay welcome back our panel still with us professor alembard or shink ocklin lindo roiley and Mary Regan or shink we nearly got through a whole hour without talking about Donald Trump because you're here and you've got you've got the old derangement syndrome so tell us about Katie balls less than 40 days today or less than 40 days to the midchamps i think it's the the first Tuesday in november and the headline in Katie balls article on the page 13 of the sunday times is forget the battleground states are tornado may hit yet hit trump in canzes which is like a deep red state yeah and although a lot of analysts are still being very cautious the opinion polls the forecast models the fundamentals around his approval rating around the economy and of course his behavior which is like doubling down on a i and eight centric spend public is against it continuing the war in the in the Iran saying he's going to get worse after the midterms he he is at you know all the all the indicators are there could be a blue wave are as they're now even suggesting a blue tsunami of course obviously people are touching people on some side are touching wood and being worried about that but the polls are suggesting that it could

49:07even even places like canzes that the the democrats could win senate seat there even though the map is against them they're mostly competing in republican states but like the the one of the candidates one of the republican candidates in philharida recently scrubbed mentions of trumps endorsement from his website and i'm increasing the republicans absolute act like i'm on the ballad yeah exactly exactly like he's not on the bottom of the number of democrats of charge of sorry republicans are calling for an end to the war in Iran so we are past peace trunk we're past peak trump in terms of his power in the republican primaries faded people kind of ignored him at the u.n. a bit this week it's just in people are beginning to see beyond them and it looks like and even by his own lofty standards i think it's like it's fair to say that a lot of people thought he made a nas of himself with which she is weak and all that he's a reality TV show it's in its last season Alan there is a view though that he continues to defy gravity that all that logical stuff that that uh or she's saying there uh yeah that that all may be true but when

50:11it comes down to it he will again like somehow defy gravity but actually people seem to think you know no maybe actually yeah well the the where he has been successful it it is still the case that he seems to be able to determine people's political careers and that in terms of the republican primaries in a vast majority of cases where he gives the endorsement people tend to get elected and when he uh doesn't and when he doesn't give it you know it tends to be quite nasty those people have not been successful but having said that i mean all the analysis coming out now does suggest that there is quite a you know a move towards the democrats the only thing the republic has seen to be fighting on is to kind of call some of the democratic candidates crazies and mad lefties and communists and everything like that which seems to be dialing the you know the clock back about 70 years or something 1950s if they think they'll win the election on that sort of a basis uh and then for the remodeling candidates as well uh that that just sort of compounds the rhetoric but the republicans they do seem to be in real difficulty now. diesel is six dollars fifty a gallon in the US which is the highest average being

51:13it's going to of course it's going to come down to the midterms when he and either ends the war in Iran uh some days are the other days bombs and black to kingdom come whatever the plan is now Mary we at we kind of got lost up in the budget there and there was something i wanted to ask you but which is kind of bubbling away all week but people might in the notice that uh it's talk about reeling in the years like uh phenol phenodel and the sports grants just maybe explain to people what happened. yeah so the world is in a state of jacuzzi multiple global crisis the t-shirt is off in the u-end announcing netanyahu and putin but the real enemy is within and that is because phenophol uh wiped phenophol uh phenogale wiped phenophol zai and gave their representative the heads up on the opening of applications for sports capital grants phenopholors were very very annoyed that their constituency colleagues in phenogale were putting it up in their instagrams and their social media you know you can apply for your grant from from next week and i think what it all points to is the internal sort of um competition in irish politics

52:18now is between phenophol and phenogale also a bit of commentary today that phenogale is becoming more phenopholed and phenopholed themselves. but this is a phenophol style straw that is called yep and and gary morphea and chain ross already wrote today both also are pains to point out that this sports grant system has no been finesse to the point where local politicians do not actually have any effect on it but it's the currency of being the first to tell people even that the thing is all that's it's a whole a halo effect and gary morphe says that you know it seems incredibly childish at a time when the government has a budget and citizens grapple with cost of living but he said that claiming credit for the allocation of sports grants is one of the last bastions of the island of clientalism cutures and sneaking regarders as patio carol who thought sociology and ucc for generations family characterized irish politics in 1987. Okay Alan before we end up tell me about pumping iron at 87 dirge barri in the sunday independence

53:19is rising. Yes well from i'm 58 now so from a personal perspective i'm more interested in things that i need to do to get myself fish but the economist in me is even more worried about this because of the population ages the burden of all these folks rocking up to hospitals and other things like that we we really need to think about this so i think it's been well established for a while you know you're supposed to get your 10 000 steps in a day or it might be controversy about that but really important for older people to get resistance exercise in as well so apparently the message is getting out there and the sunday independent and then of a wonderful article about the over 80s who are now colonizing gyms by all accounts but it's a very good thing for them pale against just physically. Are you you were involved in a body to do with aging are you? Well a number and using my personal body I think what you're talking about here is firstly the longitudinal study on aging down to Trinity but I'm also chair of the character commission commissioner care for older people. You have about 30 seconds what's the biggest what's the biggest

54:19thing that should be thinking about in terms of all in the whole aging? Well actually this may be the bigger one thing that has come around the agenda there's a budgetary issue here the shingles vaccine okay has been described now is not only preventing you from getting shingles but it's quite protective in terms of dementia and there is a budgetary implication here because the government might now start looking at giving it over over 80s is it starting almost certainly I'm trying to see if I hold out and get it or she'll wait but it gets down to me very young I have an appointment I have an appointment but my chemistry is a new brainer yeah my chemistry is a new brainer that there's one thing she would tell everyone to do is to get that hold off of the budget shingles okay okay we'll hold off another two weeks listen thank you very much a terrific panel this morning professor Alan Barrett or shingles cocclin lindor Riley and Mary Regan