The Economy and the Midterm Elections

0:00Pennsylvania, the fifth largest state and the biggest swing state in the nation, is under attack by national progressive billionaires and millionaires. Why? Because as Pennsylvania goes, so goes the nation. That's what Matt Breiett explains in his new book, You Gotta Win Pennsylvania, called Entrepreneurs to Save America. Why entrepreneurs? Well, just look at America's history. Entrepreneurs founded this great nation. These were innovators, banding together to launch an unprecedented experiment in liberty and self-government. Now, 250 years later, this same entrepreneurial vision is what will save America. And in You Gotta Win Pennsylvania, Matt explains how Pennsylvania is ground zero in the fight for America. But he doesn't just give the problem, he gives the solution, and that's you. You can be part of what entrepreneurs in Pennsylvania are already doing to win Pennsylvania and save America.

1:02Check out You Gotta Win PA.com to learn more and get a copy of this eye opening book on how the future of freedom and prosperity in America runs through Pennsylvania. That's You Gotta Win PA.com. Welcome to Real Clear Politics on the Making Kelly Channel, Syria's XM-111. Welcome to Real Clear Politics on serious XM for Friday, October 2nd, Andrew Wallworth, and joining me are our CP Co-Founder and President Tom Devon, and Washington Beer Chief, called Cannon. So, guys, new economic numbers were out this morning. The Labor Department estimates that US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from August. They're up about 3% a year over year.

2:09So, depending on what numbers you use, it looks like wage growth is probably not keeping up with inflation right now. Despite these numbers, the President says the economy is strong, although Vice President Vance has a slightly different view. So, here are the two of them talking about the economy. And we have the best economy anywhere in the world. There's no economy like this economy. And the only thing we don't have is good public relations. We don't seem to be able to get the word across that we have more people working than ever before. So, on the one hand, you have the President talking about all the great building that's happening. You have me sort of acknowledging that it's going to take a long time to rebuild the American middle class. And on the other hand, you have a few tone deaf Republicans who say, shut up if you're pissed off about a $22 grito. Well, my response to those people is, no, listen to people who are upset with the state of the economy. If we don't listen to people, we will turn into the very thing that we hate, the very thing that we ran against.

3:11So, Tom, slightly different views, I guess, from the President and the Vice President on the economy. But with the midterms almost upon us, what do you think these numbers mean? Well, they're not good. Look, JD Vance is right. And Trump is wrong. Trump is out there just saying, look, everything's great. We have the hottest economy in the world. Like, that's not... I don't think the economy is bad. And certainly not as bad as Democrats are portraying. The Wall Street Journal just had an article on this the other day that this economy has been surprisingly resilient. However, perception is reality. And the perception out there is that the economy has issues. And Trump is unwilling to acknowledge those issues. He just blows right by it. He said, oh, it's just a fake news media. And we have a PR problem. That's what people always say when their policies aren't being received. And this is what Biden said. It's just a PR problem. Like, there's always great stuff. And the public just...

4:12They're too dumb to understand. Or, you know, we're not telling the story in a way that they're able to understand it properly. That's not the way that you win people over. The way that you win people over is to say, is to do what JD Vance is saying. Which is, acknowledge there's a problem. And tell people that you're working on it. Don't just gas let them be like, there's no problem. What's wrong with you? So I think the numbers are not great. The only... I said this on Fox News last night. The only good news that Republicans have right now is that gas prices are going down. Over the last week they've dropped, you know, 13 cents nationally. And I mean, it's still $4.37 a gallon, which is too high. And I think Republicans, but if that number keeps coming down and they can get into the $3.00 gallon or $350.00 gallon range nationally over the next four weeks or five weeks, that would be good news for Republicans. But outside of that, it's just... It's not great. And Republicans are not doing themselves.

5:13The president is not doing Republicans any favor by just refusing to acknowledge any of it. Yeah. The other number from this week is mortgage rates, which are moving up. They're at 7.3%. That's a three-year high. There's a slowdown in the housing market. There's a 6% drop in the number of people looking to finance purchases or refinance the mortgages at this point. So there's that too. I mean, and these are the numbers. I mean, you know, when the president talks about the news, I think that economics is what people live day to day. It's not what they read in the paper or hear on television. It's when they go to the gas pump. It's when they go to the store and try to buy a piece of meat. That's what people are responding to. Not sort of the numbers out of the White House, I guess. Well, it's both handy because there's all these studies that show partisanship affects ordinary people's perception of the economy, too.

6:14There was a great University of Michigan study that showed when Ronald Reagan left office that most Democrats thought inflation had increased while I was president. It had decreased dramatically. So it's both. I take your point that people are feeling this pain and maybe the president and his inner circle are insulated from or not are not seeing it. But Tom talks about the gas price going down. I couldn't help but think. Apparently, burrito prices are going up because the meme from the summer was a college student, you know, casually mentioned $20 burritos. JD Vance has a $22. So burritos are coming up even while gas is going going down Tom, but. But here's the other thing of, you know, and this is not this is hardly. You need to JD Vance or or or or or or or President Trump, which is that politicians don't just speak. Just do not speak honestly about. Well, the let's stick to the economy. I almost said anything, but that's not quite fair. But what you'd like in it in a president, a leader, a person who is leading your company or your family or your, you know, your unit in the military is just to be honest and say, there's some good things happening to some bad things happening.

7:31And, you know, if and again, that's asking a lot that's not present Trump style of rhetoric anyway, but presidents just don't talk that way anymore and they haven't for a while. And I think the American politicians in both parties just sell the American people short. They talked to him like they're stupid. And so what you do to me, if you really wanted to instill confidence Tom and show people that you were working on it is acknowledged the things that are not working. Isn't that sort of what Vance was doing exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's yeah close to it pretty close. Yeah, and and and and but you know the Democrats say, you know, everything's the sky is falling in tropes is everything's perfect. That's just really not how that's not the best way to communicate. But yeah, I think that is what Vance was trying to do there. Yeah. Yeah. Gas prices mentioned in Tom one of the reasons they're going down at least in certain states is because these governors and they're both Republicans and Democrats are suspending gas and diesel taxes in Ohio, Mike DeWine, Republicans suspended taxes for 90 days.

8:38Same thing in Indiana, the Republican Mike Braun, Georgia Brian camp, your governor, JD, JB Pritzker got in on the action. He actually delayed a tax hike on gas by it was 1.3% percent. I'm sorry, 1.3% per gallon tax hike that he wanted to put in and he's put it off for six months to give people a break. Yeah, and then he'll grab your money. I mean, this this idea that, you know, well, we're going to give the people a break. So we're going to suspend these taxes. It's like it just drives me crazy. It's like, why are we? You know, we put tack there's so many taxes in our that are that are hidden in our economy. Right. If you go look at your phone bill or your gas bill or whatever. We pay tax upon tax upon tax, right real estate taxes, sales taxes, income taxes and then all these fees and everything. It'd be it's astonishing how much how much and so out of the, you know, benevolence of the leaders that are feeling our pain, they're going to suspend these taxes for six months or whatever so that we can, you know, Americans can can keep more of their hard earned money. I mean, it's just.

9:55You don't think it's just politically motivated to you that the fact that there's a midterm coming up. Of course, of course. Yes. Yes. No, this is all politics and it is an acknowledgement that that, you know, things are expensive and people are pissed off about it and. And, you know, if you're if you're up for reelection, whether you're Republican or Democrat, you need to be if you're an incumbent, you need to be sensitive to that. And so, and again, it goes back to Trump not being very sensitive to gas prices and diesel prices and things like that. He just keeps saying we're the best, you know, we got the hottest economy in the world. He won't even acknowledge that, you know, farmers and his response is, well, I'm going to give you a steel mill or I'm going to give you a refund or I'm going to give you a, you know, a check for five grand if you vote. You know, I mean, he's just he's he's using all of these gimmicks when when it's just sort of the fundamentals that are the problem. And by the way, you know, the argument that they're making is, look, this is that I saw somebody on, I think it was CNN or one of these shows arguing.

10:56And I expect Mark Tason argued this on I was on Brett Barr's panel last night. Mark Tason made this argument, which is, you know, 80% of the problem was created by Democrats. And there is some truth to that. I mean, you know, inflation is has been coming down under Trump, not to the levels that he needs or wants it to be, but from Biden era highs, right? And they're, you know, a lot of these things are are left over from from a, you know, the Biden administration. However, there is truth to that, but I'm not sure that that's enough to sort of carry the day with swing voters independence and others who are who are out there, you know, trying to balance their checkbooks and looking around. Trump's policy would take care of this on day one. It's now two years in. And I think Republicans are going to pay for not not being keeping their eye focused on the ball. Let me ask you guys what real quick handy because Tom mentioned Illinois, Pritzker, one cent a tax increase he approved. Now he's delaying in Illinois, your tax, the average price of gasoline tax state taxes like 80 cents a gallon. It's a lot.

12:02It's four times what it is in Texas. It's even higher than California, which is about 75 cents. There's there's different ways they compute it. So I mean these these democratic governors have these they want to blame Trump, but it seems to me the Republicans could talk about this directly is that if you live in a state run by a cal, you know, a democratic legislative democratic governor, your bank significantly higher taxes, not just during Trump's administration, but you've been in for years because, you know, because trust me, I'm aware. Okay. And and and JB Pritzker's still going to win reelection and the legislature's still going to be super majority Democrat. And the mayor of Chicago is still going to be it may not be brand of Johnson, but it ain't to be a Republican. Maybe you should move to Austin. Yeah, or Florida. Yeah, we're on the Sanctus if you're listening. Florida's Florida's higher than Texas, but it still happens when it is in California. Well, just I just want to go on the record when it comes to cutting taxes, gas taxes, any taxes, I'm for it. So I'll take it from the Democrat, the Republican, I don't care. Cut the taxes.

13:07And he just needs to know how much is the gases for his boat. God. Well, I think it's going to be a little cheerier about it. It's the most regressive tax. Imagine a demonstration of regressive tax. But it also the diesel tax for around here for boats. It's it's it's a problem. Anyway, see? Yeah, see? These prices are up. Christophe Pike. She was, she's this was scheduled for execution in Tennessee. And to as of today, she's in critical condition after being administered to attempts at lethal injections. She is now being given life given, life saving medical care, presumably in order to keep her alive. So that the state of Tennessee can try to kill her again. She was sentenced to death in 1995 for the grizzly murder of a 19 year old woman named Colleen Slammer. The case is at a standstill in 96 or try was.

14:07Okay, thank you 95 96 a long time ago. Carl, what's going on? And does this, you know, inevitably it raises questions about the death penalty. It certainly does. She was, she was, as you said, Andy, 18. She committed this murder, this heinous murder. Um, she tortured her in her 17 year old way, lured her into this poor girl into the woods, tortured her, beat her, slashed her for an hour, carved a pentagram into her chest, keep, keep, kept a piece of a skull for her souvenir. If you're going to have the death penalty, this was a death penalty case. And the 17 year old didn't get it. The boy she got it. But as you said, and this murder happened in 1995. She was convicted the following year. It's just, um, even before the botched execution, it's a sort of a poster case for why we either should have the death penalty or not have it, we should carry it out in a timely manner. It's 30 years ago. And the family, I've seen the woman, the mother of this poor girl is killed.

15:09She's been, she's been for the execution. She's been through just, you know, these lawyers and endless appeals. And I just think we, this kind of, these states, they should have the death penalty or not have it. If they're going to do it, they should do it in a timely manner. This is just, it's, it's terrible. And to have the botched execution is almost, it wasn't so grim and sad. It's comical. I mean, how do you botch an execution? So I've written, I wrote a piece not long after this murder, five years after this murder for Rent Nash Review, made it argued the conserved case, I argued against the death penalty. And it was basically that innocent people get convicted. And I argued that that that conservatives especially should not want government to have that power. And this is not a case where guilt or innocence is an issue. The issue is, should the state take a life? And, and this is going to be an argument.

16:11This is going to turn people against the death penalty, both because of the age of this case and because of this horrific botched execution. My guess is, she doesn't have any double, there's a constitutional right to not be executed now. But my guess is that the governor will step in and issue some sort of clemency. And this case should be done with. And she should be in prison for the rest of her life. And we can move on to less horrific things. Well, time, we do have some polling. Pew, to the poll last August, two thirds of Americans favored the death penalty for people convicted of murder, about a third opposed it. And that's, numbers been pretty steady. It's up about six percent since 2021, meaning the death penalty is more popular than it was. But this does seem to be, I mean, the two thirds, one third break in the American public opinion on this leads me to think that maybe the death penalty isn't going away. I don't think it's going away. It's certainly not going away in red states where it's probably

17:12those numbers are even higher. But I mean, this just shows that this push to sort of make the death penalty more humane. We're trying to, I don't know, assuage our sensibilities about this stuff. I believe she wanted to be hanged. It's like, they still in some states have the firing squad. Obviously, there's been the electric chair, but some of those executions have gone wrong. It's like, this lethal injection thing, the fact that they botched it or whatever happened. I mean, I don't know. They should go back to, if we're going to do it. There's a history of botched executions. It's why it's, has a firing squad ever botched it? No, not firing. Okay. So maybe that's what we should do. There's a history of botched hangings. It's the cyanide gas, which they used at San Quentin was actually encouraged by a warden who was secretly opposed to capital punishment. He thought he thought it would be an effective

18:14deterrent. The Californians could turn against the death penalty. They did. This is a pretty court test case on this is an electric chair botched. That's true. Yeah. That's the question is the guy was electrocuted, survived. Do they? And the question was, you know, had the punishment been meted out and had he, was it an essence double jeopardy? Because do you get the to the court rule that it wasn't that's there? There's currently 23 states in America without the death penalty. They've outlawed capital punishment and plus Washington DC. So that makes it 24. So it's about half the states and some other states that have not outlawed it. California, under Gavin Newsom, effectively outlawed it because the governor issued a more authoritarian. So about half the states don't have it and have to do it. It is one of those issues that polls very differently as Tom pointed out Andy, regional, great regional differences and differences by state and not all of the states that have outlawed it are democratic states. Alaska, for instance, doesn't have capital punishment. Yeah. It breaks down. I mean,

19:16but it parsed lines as well, but go ahead, Tom. It doesn't. It turns this woman, you know, into a sympathetic figure in some ways because, you know, look, the death penalty itself is, and I've called, we've talked about this before. I've written about this before too. And it's like in Northwestern University, which is down the street from where I live, right? Did a bunch of, you know, did they have a whole thing and they've gotten people off of death row, got them exonerated. And there have been examples and cases where people have been wrongly charged and wrongly put to death. And that is something that I think we should, we should all think about and consider in cases where there's no, there's confessions or there's no absolutely no doubt about the guilt of someone fine. But in cases where people are saying, look, I'm innocent. This is, you know, I didn't do this, whatever. Then, you know, I don't know that we should be putting those, one of those people in that room. This, this defendant, this can

20:20convict, she, this case was so long ago. And this is one of the, it's one of the reasons that death penalty opponents think the appellate, that PO process has to take time. But the law has changed the case law, not the statute since then. And the courts, the federal courts, the state, some of these state courts have been much more willing to say that a defendant's a horrific childhood let's say, and this has been alleged in this case, that she was abused herself as a child, that that now, if she was being tried today in that state, this would be admissible. It wasn't admissible then. And so the changing law shows you both why the Lenin's case gone for 30 years, makes no sense, but also why opponents have had the thing wanted to go on because they want more facts to come out. I want to say very briefly, we, we have good fun on this show. All three of us are friends. You guys tease me about Gavin Newsom. But here's how I know Gavin Newsom. His father was a friend of mine. His father was named Bill Newsom and he was a judge in California.

21:25And a reporter named John Standifern, I worked on a case of a guy who was charged with capital murder in a sensational Los Angeles case. And he was innocent. His name was Pete Pinesi. And the work we did succeeded in getting him a pardon long after the fact based on innocence, he was still alive. He was 80. Bill Newsom worked on that case. A judge in California can handle a case as an litigant if he, he can't take any money if he has a family relationship or a family like relationship. And Pinesi was a family like relationship with the Newsom family. It's how I met Gavin. I have a sauce about form because his dad was a friend of mine. But we worked on this case. And that case went to trial. And this would have been in the in the 40s. And the, and the state sought the death penalty. And it was 11 to one. And one, one woman, hold out, juror, I was thinking of this juror the other day. Her name is lost to posterity. But she just said what, what Tom just said at the end she said, well, he says he's innocent. What if he is innocent? And so his life was

22:28spared. And he went on. He worked for this in the, in the press room for the San Francisco examiner for 25 years. And a great life was resumed his life in San Francisco became a popular well-liked person. And it would have been a tragedy if he had been killed. So that's what informed my opposition to caproponishment. And it's also high. No, Gavin Newsom, who I met in those days, he was a young college student at Santa Clara. And I was and Bill and I were hanging around together. So I thought I'd mention that. All right. Well, good. Carl. A good Friday story from Carl Cannon. You know, it's in your real clear politics on series XM. I'm Andrew Wallworth. I've got Tom and Carl with me stick around Sean trendy. He's going to join us next. We're talking about house races. Don't go away. It's real. It's clear. And it's on the Megan Kelley channel. It's real clear politics. Series XM 111. Pennsylvania, the fifth largest state and the biggest swing state in the nation is under attack by national progressive billionaires and millionaires. Why? Because as Pennsylvania goes, so goes

23:29the nation. That's what Matt Breiett explains in his new book, you got a win, Pennsylvania, a call to entrepreneurs to save America. Why entrepreneurs? Well, just look at America's history. Entrepreneurs founded this great nation. These were innovators banding together to launch an unprecedented experiment in liberty and self-government. Now, 250 years later, this same entrepreneurial vision is what will save America. And in you got a win, Pennsylvania, Matt explains how Pennsylvania is ground zero in the fight for America. But he doesn't just give the problem, he gives the solution. And that's you. You can be part of what entrepreneurs in Pennsylvania are already doing to win Pennsylvania and save America. Check out you got a win, pa.com to learn more and get a copy of this eye opening book on how the future of freedom and prosperity in America runs through

24:29Pennsylvania. That's you got a win, pa.com. Not found by any left right constructs, real clear politics. Open to a wide political spectrum. You're listening to the Megan Kelly channel on Syria's XM 111. Welcome back to Rikler Politics on Syria's XM. I made a wall worth of got Tom Bevin and Carl Cannon with me and we are joined now by our senior elections analyst Sean Trendy. Sean was looking at the RCP map today. These are the house projections. Looked to me like this is the way it breaks down. We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss up, 218 is what's needed for the majority. So if I'm looking at that, I'm going to assume you had something to do these maps. It looks to me like the Democrats could lose all the toss up seats and still end up with the majority. Yeah, I think these are on the more aggressive side. But again, when we look at

25:35what we see in the polling right now, it's warranted. Our average is about 8 to 9, which would be a little bit bigger than what we saw in 2018. But we're seeing upside polling. We're seeing some indications that GOP enthusiasm is down, which can complicate some of the more heavily read districts. These ratings can change by election, David. That's where we are on the data right now. Of the 24 seats that are toss up 18 are Republican right now. So two ways to look at that. One is that they have more toss up seats than Republican. That may be a bad thing. But also incumbents tend to be favored in these things. So is that a plus or a minus for the Republicans that they're defending so many of their own seats? Well, you would you would much rather be on offense than defense. But it's good that a lot of the for Republicans that a lot of these seats do feature incumbents. Now, some are open. Montana's first district, Texas 23. And then there's the incumbents you don't

26:40really want to be having to defend like Max Miller in Ohio 7, which we actually have is leaning pick up right now. So it cuts both ways. And five of those toss ups are in Florida where there's been redistricting. You would think that those five new districts would favor Republicans if the Republicans if the governor has done his job. That was the idea. Well, the dummy man. Well, it's not. It's not a dummy man. Unless you're incumbents lose because of the remap. And when people talk about the redistricted redistricting, after a matter of these maps are going to be in place for two more cycles. This isn't the last election of the 2020s as far as we know. So the even if the map doesn't quite perform the five pickups to the GOP was hoping for this time, there's still two more cycles. Sean, we got we talked about in the first segment of this economic news, right? Jobs not so great. Unemployment went up, ticked up, but that was because more people were in the labor force.

27:45The gas price is dropping. Mortgage rates going up. So it's it's, you know, kind of a mixed bag for Republicans. Obviously, the economy is the number one issue. Trump's appropriating on the economy is not great. How do you think Republicans are and he's running around the country right now going obviously to deep red spots, but telling everybody this is the greatest economy. You know, it's like we're on fire. Everything's great. How do you think Republicans in these House districts are handling this situation with a president out there telling their constituents everything is awesome. And they're kind of like, you know, how do they do that without contradicting the president or maybe they should be contradicting the president? Yeah, I feel like we do this every few years, right? Whether it's a Republican or a Democrat, if people are a little upset about the economy, the president doesn't want to say, well, yeah, I've done a bad job. So he goes around and talks up the positive aspects, leaving members of Congress kind of in the lurch. It's a tough position for Republicans. And even if gas prices come down,

28:50it takes a while for those kind of expectations to reset. So it's it's a real problem for Republicans in this midterm election. It's it's probably the number one reason that they're likely to lose the House. The argument that they're making, Sean, a lot of Republicans are making is and we just talked about one is one is, well, this is mostly Biden's problem that we're trying to clean up and it's taken longer than we thought. And then two is in some of these races, right? Well, you know, your life isn't going to be any better with Democrats. They're crazy. They're out of control. And if anything, they're going to make prices worse. Do you think those arguments are getting any traction with voters? Well, so you have to remember, this is a battle that's mostly being waged on Republican ground, right? The average district right now is a Republican district. The tipping point district state for the Senate is a pretty heavily Republican district. So it's not a question so much

29:55of persuading independence, at least for Republicans. It's a question of making sure their voters turn up and are sufficiently, if you can't get it by getting them enthused about the president, get them sufficiently scared about what might happen if they don't turn out to vote. And so that's really what you're seeing. That's the subtext for all of these ads and attacks. Sean, let me ask you something because we know the Democrats are highly motivated. You know, that great Davis, the former governor, California told me just before just before he was recalled, but basically he said, you know, voters don't have to do backflips of joy into the voting booth. They just have to pull the lever with my name on it. But Democrats are doing backflips of joy this year into the voting booth. They can't wait. They find out when when the early voting in their state go line up two days before like for spring scene tickets to vote, you know, so I get that. But why why what accounts for the lack of enthusiasm on the other side? I haven't I've been thinking about this. I don't have a good answer. I thought you might have been thinking about it too. Why are why are Republicans under motivated?

31:00Well, I think you can kind of put three buckets. You know, the simplest is kind of your average just Republican, not terribly motivated to vote who just thinks like, okay, things just don't feel good right now. And my parties and power, it's hard to blame the other guys. So I'm just not real excited. There's kind of a tear beyond that, I think, which is like what if Republicans done? Like they didn't the the the the Maga crowd made a big deal out of the safe act and it didn't pass. The doge cuts didn't get translated into law. Like what are we even doing here? And then there's this kind of narrower kind of hardcore Maga base that is just furious at Trump for for attacking Iran. You know, this was a court Trump promise. You're not that we aren't going to have war in the Middle East and yet here we are and gas prices are going through the roof and they're they're really angry. So there's a lot going on on the Republican side right now. Hey, Hakiem Jeffries was interviewed the other day and he was asked about AOC to play this

32:07clip for you and get your action this shot. First of all, I'm staying in the house lane, but leadership has been a great partner and certainly someone who I've longed work with. He'll have to make decisions in the aftermath of this midterm election. I know right now he's focused on trying to take back the Senate. Alex has done a tremendous job championing a whole host of issues of great importance to both New Yorkers and to the nation. I think the sky's the limit for her in terms of how she decides to move forward. She's going to have to make that decision, you know, at some point and you know, it'll be big news when she does. He was talking about Chuck Schumer there first and then he was talking about Alex. I never hear her called Alex. That's AOC. But Sean, what do you make of what's going to happen with AOC and does she run for the Senate? Does she run for president? That's sort of the question for the House.

33:07Yeah, I think she's kind of an inflection point, right? She's been in the house now for closing in on a decade. You know, she's getting old enough that she qualifies for the other constitutional offices and she has to make a decision. At a certain point, you accumulate enough seniority in the House that it doesn't make sense to run for higher office. You know, that's getting to be where she is right now. The presidential question is a big question. I mean, it is, it is probably her year. She could probably do better to be a little bit older. But this is where the zeitgeist is in the Democratic Party right now. I think they want to fall in love and she's the type of candidate they fall in love with. She's got a big decision to make in the next few years about what she wants her next step to be. Yeah, I'm on records thinking she'll run against Schumer in the primary for president. Tom for for Senator. That's what did I say? Excuse me, run for sin. Run for sin against Schumer. Tom thinks and Henry Ellison came on. I

34:09think Andy agrees that that she's going to run for president. I want to bottle a wine on this one, Carl. Yeah. Yeah. I want to bottle a wine on this one. I look at she she wants to change the world. She has talked about this. She she you know, when she traveled the land with burning, fighting the oligarchy on her private jets, she wants to change the world. She is not going to change the world by getting you know, going to the Senate and just talking. She and and I think she recognizes that this is this is her moment. This is going to be it. She may never get another chance like this and I grew Sean. The zeitgeist is like it's all flowing her direction and so I fully expect her to embrace that even though she is young and nobody's you know, we haven't had anybody out of the house do. Has anyone ever done that or has been spent like forever right? I'll like pulp did it. Yeah, exactly like so in hundreds of years. But we're in a different era now and she's just you know, this is so I fully expect her to take advantage of the moment.

35:11Yeah, I've described to that idea that the presidential postman doesn't worry twice that basically your moment comes and you step into it or you don't. But at the same time, Sean, it seems to me that it must hinge somewhat on how her fellow DSA types do this time around because if there's a big groundswell say they win Michigan, they win Maine, they win a couple of these other races, the center races I'm talking about with the DSA or DSA adjacent candidates that that would put some wind in her sales if they lose those races does it does it look different to the democratic leadership. And then the other thing of course is the primary map which is really not designed to favor her or so much as it is to favor the let's just say Kumbler Harris. Yeah, I mean she to the broader point you don't want to be Chris Christie right he took a pass on 2012 thinking he would wait and like 2012 was probably his year. And that's kind of it's not perfect

36:16for her but it's probably as good as it gets in your right if you end up with a solid particularly a solid democratic win in Michigan, in Minnesota and Maine, then that's exactly the message is not going to be these people really don't like Donald Trump it's going to be look. They're they're drawn to our candidates especially Michigan where you kind of have a younger energetic charismatic guy got some baggage obviously but if you can sell against a kind of normy Republican in Michigan that is that's a huge boost to her. I think also it does matter who else gets in your right like Kumbler Harris is a problem for her paths to the presidency so she'll be paying attention to that but if she wants it this is her chance to try to get it. And Tom you think she's going to run? 100 percent. I mean I honestly you know even if some of these DSA candidates lose I don't think that you know that is going to significantly alter or change the calculus the base is still

37:24the energy in the base is still to the left and that's who is going to end up picking the nominee. Kumbler Harris yes you know she's obviously there's some overlap there but at the same time again I mean Harris is not good she's not a good candidate and I think about Harris I wonder Tom you know the Democrats nominated Adelaide Stevenson twice he lost twice he lost by a bigger margin I'm not sure that can happen again I'm not sure if you lose once you get another chance in modern politics yeah I mean her argument is going to be look it was a weird year I had three months to put together together presidential campaign which I don't think is a terrible argument. It's no okay argument Tom but she kept losing ground the longer it went on. Yeah yeah I mean look it's back it's a problem right like if I'm attacking her I'm like you had your shot you blew it against Donald freaking Trump you know how are you going to be JD dancer or Marco Rubio I'm just saying that that she is a look she does have a little bit of an

38:25asterisk on her loss that other people don't have that could and her could buy her the second chance. Sean before we've only got a couple minutes left before we let you go I got to talk to about the Senate I mean it's new Fox News polls it just came out last night to pick up two and Iowa, Tallarico up to in Texas, El Sayed up in Michigan although it looks like Susan Collins is kind of making a little bit of a comeback in Maine so what is your take on where the Senate stands right now. I mean there really is a lot up in the air with the Senate we have like five or six close races yeah you have to put some asterisk here there Iowa has tended over the last decade to over a scribe strength to Democrats Susan Collins is a perennial over performer of polls I think a lot of people thought she would be out of this race by now and she's polling better than she did in 2020 so anything between like Republicans getting 48 seats and 51 seats

39:29I think wouldn't be terribly surprising I think Ken Paxton's in real trouble I think that's genuine but we'll have a better view hopefully in a couple weeks. Well it does seem like that when you look at the polls because I think we started this week it's Friday we you know we were sort of struck at how in Emory toss up Senate race the Democrat was ahead I think they were heading in all of them maybe Maine I think Maine shifted over the week but the polls show and seem like they will tighten up I mean they that's what they polls do and that the Republican money is starting to really flow now and that might be is in the Senate races might might start to make a difference yeah I think people expected a little bit of a break towards Democrats at the end you know with the bottom in the bottom following out for Republicans that's just not what we're seeing at least not in the Senate polling if anything these races are getting a little bit closer Republican candidates are are hanging in there that's almost certainly I think the Republican

40:32money at work and we'll see then how much the Republican money advantage and get out the vote funds how much that really can make a difference and some of these races that are tight if they keep them tight absolutely could make a difference yeah um October surprise that's what we're I guess if I told you it wouldn't be a surprise well the November surprise would be if the Republican if the Republicans can't even hold the seat in Kansas yeah yeah I think one of these fake independent candidates might actually sneak through like you have these candidates in South Dakota and I never ask it would be less of a surprise but yeah one of these candidates that catches an old incumbent sleeping it's a kind of anti-Washington anti incumbent anti-Republican mood I mean is anybody really sleeping at this point though like is anybody really just out there that's that's like oh yeah I'm safe I'm good I don't think any Republican is well Graham doesn't think she's safe so yeah I'm just saying I'm not predicting that I'm saying that if there is a

41:37big November surprise it's going to be like oh my gosh Idaho elected an independent they won't elect a Democrat might they elect an independent if 83-year-old Jim Rish isn't getting his act together possible all right we will keep an eye on it so it's great we're talking to Sean trendy he's our senior elections analyst RCP I'm Andrew Wallworth I've got Tom and Carl we'll be back after this and it is you cannot be serious Friday so stick around this is real clear politics on the Megan Kelly channel serious xm 111 Pennsylvania the fifth largest state and the biggest swing state in the nation is under attack by national progressive billionaires and millionaires why because as Pennsylvania goes so goes the nation that's what Matt Breett explains in his new book you got a win Pennsylvania a call to entrepreneurs to save America why entrepreneurs well just look at America's history

42:40entrepreneurs founded this great nation these were innovators banding together to launch an unprecedented experiment in liberty and self-government now 250 years later this same entrepreneurial vision is what will save America and in you got a win Pennsylvania Matt explains how Pennsylvania is ground zero in the fight for America but he doesn't just give the problem he gives the solution and that's you you can be part of what entrepreneurs in Pennsylvania are already doing to win Pennsylvania and save America check out you got a win pa dot com to learn more and get a copy of this eye opening book on how the future of freedom and prosperity in America runs through Pennsylvania that's you got a win pa dot com informing you on the important issues of the day welcome back to real clear politics on the Megan Kelly channel serious xm 111

43:45welcome back to real fair politics on serious xm i'm Andrew Wallworth i've got Tom Bevin and Carl cannon with me and want to start with little culture slash entertainment slash business news and that's a their Warner Brothers is opening the film digger this weekend with Tom Cruise in the lead this is all in advance of next week's paramount acquisition of Warner Brothers discovery that is a deal it's supposed to close on Tuesday but a lot of attention to this film time reviews have been mixed to bad here's a little bit of a trailer for the film film cost about 180 million bucks to produce here's Tom Cruise what do you want me to shut down to billion dollar platform over something it's ten times the size of my dick oh i don't believe you understand what's happening sir what did you just say sorry sir well i know perfectly well what's going on there because i'm paying for the whole thing i'm paying for your fucking 90 percent Hungarian goose down winner jacket i'm paying your salary you want to shut her down well i'm saying mr president wake utterly

44:47unprotected against a disaster of this magnitude so uh gives you some idea what the trailers about at least a lot of people think the trailer doesn't accurately reflect the film uh and two heads of Warner Brothers film division my good look up hamla abd were fired um just as this film was released just in advance of the merger some people think those events are tied uh and that this film is going to be a problem for the uh for the company out of the box what do you think well yeah i don't know if those two were fired because of this filming it is true that Warner Brothers apparently won a bunch of Academy Awards last year and this year's been just flop after flop after flop and digger looks like it could be the biggest flop of all time i mean you mentioned a 180 million dollar budget not including the marketing budget little which will push it closer to 300 and it's set to make maybe ten million dollars i mean the reviews have been that's opening weekend

45:48yeah opening weekend yeah uh the reviews have been absolutely brutal uh you know it is uh even people who are sort of predisposed to like the director uh like tom cruise have have called this just an atrocious movie it's well here's here's what here's what new york post for you said the headline tom cruise is laugh free turd we'll have audiences stampeding out yeah that's the headline um and there was that i i'm sure you guys saw the Hollywood reporter david runny wrote this um digger is basically what happens when he puts two outsized egos he's done about cruise and the director together with nobody holding the reins to keep their most self-indulgent impulses in check someda that you watch an excruciating weirdness as the film disappears up its own ass and then you realize you just may there's another eardrum shattering hour left to endure yeah kyle smith wrote a blistering review in the wall street journal as well and so look i mean it's

46:52it's it's it's gotten so bad that Warner Bros released some some ads online yesterday basically of trying to spin the negative reviews they can there's real bad and so ubiquitous that they can't ignore them and so they're trying to incorporate them and and the whole thing is like now well don't you know you've got to watch it for yourself is it is it awful or is it great like you have to decide you have to pull the trigger we'll see whether that works it probably won't i mean the biggest thing that drives these things is word of mouth and and our people really going to risk 20 bucks to go watch this film this weekend or in the next weekend when they can you know maybe wait of like like three or four weeks and then watch it on HBO or something yeah you guys ever heard of a marketing campaign which essentially is this movie's not as bad as you've heard it is how can that work i thought it was kind of genius for them to pivot on that really quickly yeah I mean they if you watch this stuff it's great they they show a couple reviews like a giant swing in a miss or whatever and then they they cut to Tom Cruise and he's like oh fuck those people

47:56you know it's really good i have two words for you which is tropic thunder i think that there are a lot of bros out there who love Tom Cruise and the prosthetic makeup in tropic thunder where he played less grossment this character yes yes terrific terrific the picture that movie was funny you know Tom very funny yeah great dancing um i think that there is a built-in audience for that that's gonna come out and see this film and i think it makes its money back in streaming and becomes a cult classic i also your little Oscar buzz uh for Cruise in this film i've got two words for you Andy heaven's gate well that's the movie that was so bad it put united artists out of Andy for a second i i thought you jumped ahead do you cannot be serious i know i'm being bolder i watched the trailer i'm gonna watch the film i think it sounds intriguing and you you can watch it too we don't have to it's a it's a climate change movie that someone yeah right it's got a

48:57little bit like so much makes don't look up look like uh you know like a sophisticated yes well it i may not love you being a John Kerry and Andy all right well uh speak a truerious look it is time for you can't be serious man you cannot be serious all right we got about four and a half minutes here Tom so hit on i got a quick one show go go go go go first okay so um prison trump had this this summit on a on artificial intelligence uh we we had Caroline on earlier this week talk about it and he issued this manifesto a pact whatever they're calling it uh in trump calls AI super intelligence and the White House in this thing this order signed by the president Donald J Trump misspelled the the phrase the two words united states a miss president of the united states was misspelled i don't always agree with Jimmy Kimmel maybe rarely but Jimmy Kimmel had it right

49:59nothing said super intelligence like misspelling united states so whoever prepared that i feel for you but you cannot be serious that's a two for Carl you got you got your TDS in there and a plug for Jimmy Kimmel wait and the week all right mine is uh ed bastion the CEO of delta airlines who made just a catastrophic blunder earlier this week when he announced that he would never he's not putting starlink in his airplanes because he hates Elon Musk um and subsequently basically sparked a revolt among all of these delta platinum and you know million milers or whatever who are like you know calling for his head and and switching over to either american airlines or united airlines both of which have starlink and everybody loves starlink so ed bastion because he hates Elon Musk decided to take it out on his customers by making them suffer

51:02through slow internet and uh and we think you will probably be looking for a new job at some point in the in the very near future so ed bastion you can't be serious all right well mine is the unit's department of justice which is engaging in this new trend uh which is i just learned it's called nixon maxing uh you can read about it in the Wall Street Journal today our old friend colleague Phil Wigman has a great piece about this on the journal uh and it's an attempt by some republicans to redeem Richard Nixon from Watergate uh by claiming claiming that um that much of much like a certain uh reput other republican president he was the victim of the deep state in a politicized justice department uh by spurs and vans put it this way this summer he said if you look at the story how the deep state took down Richard Nixon it's not all that different from what the same group of people the same institutions tried to do to Donald Trump in the first administration so vans points out there is a parallel 100% true

52:05yeah i'm trying to trigger Carl by the way so if he takes the bait yeah so anyway um nixon was the also the architect of engagement the china remember that paved the way for economic engagement he hated the russians um he feared russian i was at his funeral and he and i can tell you nobody put his silver stake through his heart so i kind of expected some of this uh he uh anyway i don't understand why you'd go out of your way to draw parallels between your president thing i who actually wasn't peach and had to resign uh back in august of 74 but um especially doing this right before the midterm i don't know but uh Phil Wegman's got a great piece on it but um so Carl do you have anything to say about nixon maxi? not be serious yeah yeah i just did i basically compared him to satan i telling him too far uh yeah aren't you the one who just chastised me early in the week for you know like not not being sensitive and be careful about what we say we had it we yeah well i i was going to

53:11speak about patent but i'll have to wait till monday all right well we're going to uh hold on on that that is our program for today if you're listening to the podcast stamps are watching on youtube you should have a scribe like send us your comments let us know how your nixon maxing for the weekend uh we do read them it's great to hear from you all if you're listening on the mage and kelly channel on serious xms stick around mage and is coming up right after this uh i want to thank our producers kary and jake um always do a great job for us i'm andrew wall worth on behalf of tom carl everyone here at rcp have a great weekend and we will see you back here on monday one big home for all these voices that you've come to really trust mage and kelly channel series xm 111 i knew about investing but i really didn't know how to go about it meet kory a wealthfront client with wealthfront it could put money in and you would automatically distribute it into a diversified portfolio then it starts to compound the compounding compounds on the compounding just let it run

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