Should Leafs be concerned about Gavin McKenna's Start? + Other Early Season Trends

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1:03at restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See Discover.com slash 5 for details. Matthews and Marchenko score over the weekend, but is it too early to start worrying about Gavin McKenna? You're Lockdown Maple Leafs, your daily podcast on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome into the Lockdown Leafs podcast, the daily Maple Leaf Center podcast host about myself, Mike DeSepthano, Amico host Dave Morrisoudi. What's happened Dave? What's on tap for today's show? Yeah, we are three games into the season. We have to ask the question. What's the deal Gavin McKenna? What's going on with him? The Leafs unfortunately lose 32 to the all our centers despite Gengels from Matthews and Marchenko.

2:05So yeah, lots to, a lot of panic and leafland right now. No, not unhappy. No, no, no, there's panic. I don't think you're wrong. I think there's definitely, there's always going to be panic. This is the most irrational fan base that is probably in the entire NHL. So there's definitely panic. And we'll get to it. I put this out over the weekend. So I know it's only been a couple of games, but what are some of your early thoughts on the team? So we'll play the game. It's only three games, but so we'll get to that in a little bit here Dave. But yeah, you notice, you mentioned that they lose 32 to the senators. They get goals from Matthews, Marchenko. Probably had a couple more goals if they weren't so attracted to the posts and crossbars throughout the entire game. Had a couple of those, bit of an unlucky one from that perspective. I think they did win the five on five battle against the Ottawa senators in the game, despite losing overall.

3:05But I think the story right now, I don't know, we're three games into the Gavin McKenna experience. And he has yet to hit the score sheet. Is that a problem for you? Is it too early to start worrying about Gavin McKenna or is it an issue that a guy like him who came in with all this praise and poise and given top six minutes and three games in, he's shown nothing. And the numbers really, really jump off the page for how poor the line has looked with Gavin McKenna on it. Yeah, well, I think that's more, I don't know if him individually is a concern. I think it's the fact that the line itself is not having that success because you got two bona fide great players in John Tavaris and Will and the Lander. The whole reason we were okay with Gavin McKenna playing with those, especially the John Tavaris, you got two guys that should be able to help him along and it hasn't worked

4:09right now. And there was that comment when that line was first produced that they asked Jim Hiller, you worried about that line defensively? He's like, well, I'm worried about every line defensively. It's like, well, there's a reason why people were asking that question because the problem with that line is they're not spending enough time in the offensive zone. There's, and when they're stuck in the defensive zone, it's for a long time. And that is a concern to me because Gavin McKenna is going to take his time to figure things out and get himself going. But the other two guys, Neelander and Tavaris need to pick it up because Neelander, his goal came when Eastern Cowan was on that line. The other goal he scored, he wasn't even with Tavaris and Marqueo. I think he was like a line change and Matthews and Marqueo were with him.

5:10That to me is the more concerning part is that McKenna hasn't necessarily jelled with those two just yet. You want to see Mike Kelly who works for sport logic, put out a pretty damning stat for like the five on five underlying numbers for this McKenna Tavaris and Neelander trio. And we're talking about defensively, but offensively, they've been one of the worst pairings in the league. Look at this. Shot differential, minus 10 shot differential, which is 39th in the league, minus eight slot shot differential, which is dead last in the NHL. Only 15.2% of expected goals went on the ice together that is dead last in the NHL and a minus three goal differential with those in the ice, which again, dead last in the NHL. It's just not going well with these three players.

6:13I think you bring up a good point where I don't think it's just McKenna that we need to be worried about. I think it is the line as a whole and all three of them. In the fact that no one's taking control of this line here and figuring something out. Whether it's maybe the boots are finally starting to fall off on Tavaris or maybe McKenna is a little undersized and overwhelmed. The question I guess is how much longer do you stick with this? That's the big issue. I think Jim Heller has to be considering at this point. Do I stay the course with McKenna in the top six and continue to give him opportunity and play with Tavaris and Neelander? Or do you make a change? Just three games into the career. What do you think Heller is thinking about doing for this upcoming game against Nashville? I know sometimes as a coach, you don't want to give the impression that you're worried

7:16or you're pulling shoot on something too early. This is a team that's all about the numbers and all about the analytics. We've got three games right now. Two of the teams are in the playoffs last year. The centers have always been a really good analytical team. Montreal, that's a team that everyone sees as a top in. In line division, contender. Those are the games you want to see how that stuff works. If you're not going to use that as sample size, how long is the rope going to be? The concerning part is the easy switch right now is to switch Eastern Cowan and Gavin McKenna have them swap. Even for one game, let Gavin McKenna work with Nick Paul on cold and systems. I got no problem with that. Let him just get some work with those guys. Eastern Cowan can at least alleviate some of the defensive concerns on that line.

8:21He's going to go in and go for Pax. Maybe that helps with the cycle a little bit more. Maybe he gives a bit of spark to that line. I think you have to at least consider it. I'll be curious to you. I don't know. As a recording this, they haven't gone on to practice yet. It was just a little surprising. I don't know if they have a. Should it be. Should it be. No, yes, they should have been Sunday should have been the off day. So if you get on and 11, they could get on and 11 or maybe they're traveling today and don't get on the ice a little later. Why aren't you at home for this next game? Oh, yeah, you're right. I should. They're at home. Yeah. So they're last, last game at home there. Two game road trip. One of the like the weird thing is that the slot shot differential be. Being last in the NHL negative eight like you to thought that a guy like Gavin McKenna with, you know, how much he was praised for his playmaking abilities and a guy like John Tabars who's been a slot shot merchant his entire career leading the lead has been

9:27in the top five at the fair least in slot shots. Really since they NHL edge started putting out those those those analytics and they're dead last. And they're just they're not getting those opportunities. And as you mentioned, like a lot of it has to do with them spending too much time in their own end and the inability to kill place and maybe they do need someone like an Eastern cow or maybe in a Nick Paul, like maybe even guy like that to come in and possibly, you know, make make a change and just be more of a defensive presence on that line. The issue is you want McKenna playing some top minutes. You don't want him withering away in a in a matchup role. You know, you're already concerned have concerns about him defensively. So like you really want to put him in a defensive role in the bottom six. It kind of, you know, messes with the with the team identity is supposed to be the top six bottom six, right? The deployment of the bottom six being pure matchup defensive, which they've done a pretty

10:31good job in so far. Actually that third line with Eastern Cowan driving it has actually been kind of dangerous offensively. I think again, Eastern Cowan led the team and expected goals against the Ottawa, or at least expect to goals for against the senators in his 5 out of 5 ice time. It's yeah, we'll see what Jim Hill decides to do. I think it's still I would give it one more game. I would let the, you know, let let let this game against Nashville kind of play out. Do what happens if we get any difference. And if not, that I think when they hit the road, that's when I think you can maybe get away from it and make a change of some kind. Yeah, so I give it one more game. That's me. You give it one more game of those three. See if they can get going and if not, then yeah, you probably are going to end up making a change at some point here for McKenna and Tvaris and Elander.

11:38Matthews and Marchenko though, they both scored. They got their first of the year. So we'll come back. We'll get into the leaves three to loss to the senators. What else stood out from that game? And it's only three games, but we'll get to some of those on the other side as well. I might just definitely want to do more. Listen to the lockdown at least podcast, which by the way, brought to you by a fan duel, make your most rewarding season ever with Fandall Awards Club every week. Check the Fandall app to see what's waiting for you more lease talk on the other side. Healthy eating gets a lot simpler when you've already got quality ingredients ready to go. Instead of overthinking dinner, I can focus on making something I'll actually enjoy eating. Butcherbox helps make the healthy choice the easy choice. And for Schroboks delivers 100% grass fed beef organic chicken wild caught seafood and more all source to standards they can actually tell you about. They've already done the research and made the tough sourcing decisions. So all you have to do is decide what's for dinner.

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14:48So the Maple Leafs fall three to the Ottawa Senators. They're now one and two on the season all three games so far Dave decided by one goal. That's it. So they've been competitive. They've been in games on blown teams up. They're not getting blown out like they were last year. They've been competitive games, which is what we expected of the Maple Leafs to be a far more competitive team this season and look not to have excuses because I don't want to be the excuse train each and every night for this team. It's not like they just completely outwork the Senators and deserve to win that game outright but a lot of posts in that game and a camera who was post game but they brought it up as well. They're like not to make excuses but I think we hit seven or eight posts. I don't remember who that was but someone on the Maple Leaf said that. I think Jim Hilli said actually. Was it Hillary who said that? Yeah, talking about the post. I don't like when the coach says it.

15:48I'll be honest with you. I don't like when the coach talks about being unlucky with hitting the post but it's not entirely wrong. You know, they rang a couple of posts Matthews could have even had another one there late but unfortunately hit some iron. That was kind of one of the things that I know a lot of people talked about after the game just a little unlucky but to me, the positive story I guess is that Matthews scored his first of the season and Marchenko scoring his first of the season as well as first as a Maple Leaf. You know, which one you want to break down first? Which one to you was the more encouraging goal of the two? Oh, it has to be the Matthews one. What happened? I texted you right away. Right? You're like, yeah, you need to start going to the net. Of course, he goes to the net and he just gets a stick on it.

16:49Beautiful deflection by the way. Oh, perfect. Redirect it, just kind of hits it, goes down through the goal tender and his first of the season. So, yeah, getting Matthews going is imperative. So for him to finally get his first goal, see it go in. Hopefully that's the start of way more to come. Yeah, and I was really asked this though and I went on 590 like, what would I take going into the next game? Then the choice were Matthews goal, McKenna point or Bibrofsky big game. So you have to have the Matthews goal because he's the one that's going to, that's the goal that's going to kind of drive this, you know, this team four because if he gets scoring, it should have a trickle down for the rest of the team. He scores, all along to after that, Marchenko scores, right? Like guys start to feel, you know, you get the juices falling a little bit. But I think it's also just a realization too. Awesome Matthews doesn't just score with his shot.

17:53He is a guy that can do those redirects. He can score in different ways. I think maybe again, a goal like that can reinforce that type of mentality and I'm hoping it does because he is, I think, going to be that net front guy on that line. That seems to be where I think he needs to be and I think hopefully the coaching staff is going to continue to drill that into him. Well, and if he's healthy, I think he could do that. That's some two or last year with the back injury. He wasn't willing to go to the front of the net and take those hacks, right? At his back, he wasn't willing to do that. He was incapable of doing it because of the injury. It seems like if he's healthy this year, he's going to be willing to do those things, right? He's going to be willing to go the net. He wasn't in half too, I guess. He had like Matthew and I on his line for a majority of the season. So there's someone else who was capable of being that net front guy. But if we're going to see, you know, like Ross the Vic, if it's not Ross the Vic, it might be Eastern Cowan or it might be Gavin McKenna alongside him and Marciaco for the rest

18:56of the season, it was a good chance. He's probably going to be the net front guy. Right. Like all of those players, like most of them are more perimeter corner guys than they are dudes who are going to succeed at the net front. Although Marciaco, not bad on the power play, net front, he ended up down low and he was so wide open. That guy had like 45 minutes to dipcy, dangle his way past all the market. What a play by radish to spot that, right? Yeah, it was, it was really heads up play by radish and it seems like the power play, you know, kind of starting to, you know, start to figure things out, right? Where it's not just, you know, everyone passing the perimeter, like that was a situation where they got Marciaco down low. Notice that there was some space time and space and he took it to the net, right? Like he was direct took it to the net scored in tight. It was a really, really nice goal. So yeah, those two scoring definitely a positive in the game.

19:57And then you else stick out to you about the three to loss, the positive or negatively. Well, positively, I think the, you know, the power play looked to look better, right? Like they hit probably like four or five posts on that one power play. Like, Newander, how does that Newander shot not go in? I'm sorry. He hits the bat. He hits the crossbar. It hits all Mark in the back and it hits the post again. Yeah, hockey gods not, high gods aren't shining too brightly on. No, like that was ridiculous. Yeah. But the power, like the thing in the, okay, well, it was a good thing. It was a bad thing. The power play looked that good in that one spot. And then it didn't do that in the later chance to got Lee and he still had a chance, Lee in the game to go and get to go and get yourself back into it. And that's mentality from the earlier power play didn't register again. They weren't doing the, you know, push it, you know, get those shots on, get the goalie

21:01movie. Like, oh, Mark was swimming in that, on that power play. And that's why they had those chances. You also got to bury some of those chances too, right? Like, somebody sent me the goal isn't to hit iron, the goal is to hit in between. That's a yes. I guess I think they know that. I think, you know, those were placed almost perfectly of their place perfectly. They would gone into the net. But I also didn't like their effort in the final few minutes. Like they got to find a way to the neutral zone, especially auto was just like, we're just going to plug the neutral zone and force Toronto to try to beat us in neutral zone. And Least couldn't do it. And they got to do a much better job at that because that's going to be a problem if teams realize that that's one way that they can beat this team, right? No, 100%. Like, that's, yeah, they got to figure out a way to kind of break through it and put a little bit more speed and pace through the neutral zone and break down other teams.

22:04And I was part of the struggles with the second line is they just couldn't, you know, break out the puck. They couldn't get it, get it going. And, you know, a couple of the goals you look at, turn over in the neutral zone. Like you look at the game winner from a Caledade got the game winner, but like, that's a situation that turned the puck over at center ice, right? Like they just got swarmed trying to break out and boom, turn over, pucks in the back of the net, like eight seconds later. So, yeah, definitely got to do a better job of that. That's part of the problem when, you know, you, you, I guess there's this change of whether or not the team wants to still be that dump and chase team as opposed to potentially being a team that's going to try and possess the puck breaking in over the blue line. You know, if you're dumping and chasing, okay, you get to center ice, you dump it in, right? You, you don't risk those turnovers and counter attacks, but when you're trying to possess it, you know, over the blue line and through the neutral zone, it opens it up to the possibility of those.

23:05So, it's funny, you know, you, you got to take the game with the bad, obviously, and we'll kind of see how the Maple Leafs throughout the season continue to, to, to, to work on it, perfect it, you know, get better at some things. But I said, it's, it's, it's only been a few games, you know, it's only been a few games. It's, it's still a team that's trying to figure themselves out, still trying to build chemistry. You're seeing a little bit more of a game by game. And with that, let's take a break. We'll come back and a little segment. It's, it's only three games, but, right? Whether it's an overreaction, an underreaction, a positive and negative, we'll get to some of those next two in the Lockdown Least podcast, part of the Lockdown podcast network. It's your team every day. Today's episode's brought to you by our good friends over at Fandool. Welcome here, most rewarding NFL season ever only on Fandool. How rewarding are we talking? More rewarding than a touchdown with time expiring. More rewarding than an 18 point come back. And maybe even more rewarding than an alignment catching a touchdown.

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25:09Welcome back into the locked on Elise podcast. Mike DeSteffano, Dave Morris, Judy with you as always. Just remind you you can find the podcast on all platforms, including YouTube, hit subscribe, get your daily dose of Maple Leafs content. All right Dave. This is the fun game we can play this periodically throughout the season, but I think it's most fun played early in the year because there's a lot of overreactions. We can kind of sift through and decide if it's an overreaction or a proper reaction in a way. But Dave, I'm going to pose the question to you and you finish the sentence here. It's only three games for the Maple Leafs, but what's an observation for you? But I'm a little worried about that second line. I'm not worried about that second line. I think that's a proper reaction. We showed the numbers earlier in the show. They're quite literally one of the worst lines so far this season.

26:15I think that there's a couple of things to be concerned about. The fact that Gavin McKenna looks like an undersized 18 year old rookie in the league. John Taboris, they've paced becoming a bit of an issue for JT and it looks a little clunky out there. Not that he was ever the best skater in the world, but we all knew eventually that it was going to fall off here at some point. Hopefully, it's not happening. It's just again, it's early. It's only three games type of situation, but there's definitely some concerns, some major concerns with that second line. The question again is, what do you do? You stay the course and you make a change. That's an adherence. What point does that become reality? Yeah. Again, I know that you want to avoid overreacting to a couple of games, but I also think that you

27:17want to show that you're also relying on the numbers. You're talking about being an analytics team that heavies that's heavy on the analytics. So show it. Show that okay if we're not happy with the way that line's going, we're going to make a change because we think that it's not working. I think you have to at least consider it. Try it for a game where you don't have them together. If you find the results, don't still don't work. Then you're also wondering, do you go back to it? But I think you've got to at least consider it for a little bit. Yeah. I'm giving you one more game. We'll finish up the home stand. And then if it still doesn't look good after tomorrow against Nashville, I think when you hit the road, maybe you switched it up a little bit. Okay. It's only three games, but Dave, Gavin McKenna, I almost did the exact same thing that

28:22you did a second ago. It's only three games, but Eastern Cowan looks prime for a breakout season. That's that to me is one thing that I've noticed here. I don't know. You let me know overreaction, proper reaction, but he's been arguably the most dangerous Maple Leaf on the ice. It definitely forward who's been playing the best two-way game. I would say scored goals, got a couple of helpers. But to me, Eastern Cowan, I think eventually he's going to work his way up the line up a little bit. And I think we can really see this breakout actually happen this year. Yeah. And you know what? It's because he's doing it, they're doing it the right way. Like he's doing it the right way where he's the hustle, the grind, the skating. His skating is, I think, probably the biggest improvement I've seen here.

29:24And so I do think that that is going to be one of those things where if he continues to put in that effort, he's going to get rewarded. And I'm hoping that the coaching staff, I know they have been. I hope that they really do reward him with more opportunities. I think he's deserving of it. I agree. I agree. All right. It's only three games, but I'm not sure if I still like that radish Riley Perry. Yeah, it's probably fair. That's probably fair. But what else like if you were Jim Hiller, what would you do? I would probably, it's either you're moving Riley down to the third pair and you're putting him. Boy, let's say like a Riley thing is, do you like a Riley Stoucher? I think they did that for a little bit in the last. They did. They did. And they played a little bit together last year as well.

30:24But more than in an elevated top pair role, this would be in the third pair with more sheltered minutes, of course. So it's, you know, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. And I'm guessing you move OEL up with radish in this. Yeah, I would think so. Yeah. I mean, I like that better than splitting up McCabe and Tannif. Yeah. Like I just, I don't want to touch that line. I really don't. So maybe that could be something that, that, that, you know, that, that does happen here at, at some point. But yeah, it's only three games, but it still looks about as poorly as we thought it would to this point. Uh, we'll, we'll say that. It's only three games, but the bet on the bottom six seems to be paying off, I would say. You know, I think that defensively they've played pretty well. I think that they've lived up to their end of the bargain that way. And you know, they're, they've been killing off all the penalties, right?

31:27I think the team's perfect on the penalty kill to, to start the season. Um, technically, I think one of the goals last, in the last game was like, as time expired. So technically, it was not a power play goal for Ottawa. Um, but I mean, like again, this is, this was a completely re reworked bottom six reworked penalty kill units, new coach, new players, new systems and, uh, so far, so good. And as long as the Maple Leafs can continue to have a solid BK and, and you know, not give up, you know, those easy goals, uh, like they were a couple of years ago when the penalty kill was a real big problem. Um, you know, the Maple Leafs can be in good shape, right? Like if, if you can limit those special teams goals, you can win the, win the special teams battle each and every night, it's going to give you a good chance to win the hockey game. And, um, whatever didn't happen, obviously, did the night in Ottawa. They won the special teams battle and still lost the game. But more nights than not, uh, it, it, it, it usually is a successful venture when you

32:34win the special teams battle. So, uh, I think so far, so good on that front. You got anything else? Um, well, it's not a part of this segment, but we got some breaking news. Oh, okay. This will be the final season, the NHL for Alex Ovechkin. Okay. So he came out publicly last year for the great eight. All right. Has he scored yet? The, I don't know if he scored yet, Ovechkin. Let's see. They're going to, they're not surprised by this, by the way. No, I, I think, I think, you know what? I think it was leaning towards this. Yeah. No goal just an assist. So, there's about to play their first home game on Wednesday, I think. Okay. It makes sense. Makes sense. He, I guess he wants to make that decision before, you know what? Get the decision out of the way, right? Don't leave people, don't leave that as I think wondering. Oh, you're, I think he announced it to the team this morning.

33:35Then they just put out the official. So Ovi, the last season of Ovi in the NHL, in the NHL. Then I think he'll probably go back and play a little bit in Russia. Okay. All right. Yeah. I guess, I guess so. The fact that they legitimately said in the NHL, I find to be very interesting. So he's, I don't know, something like, I think the numbers, maybe like 17. No, how many goals is yet? Is it a thousand and six goals? I think he's only like, it's a very small number away from reaching the all time goals record of, of, of, of, yeah, of regular season and playoffs and grads key, regular season playoffs. I think he's only needs like 13 or 17 more goals or something like that to, to pass grads key should be. So I think that's why he came back for one last season, get that record and

34:35become the all time, all time goal score in the NHL. Not just regular season, but like just regular season and playoffs, all time goal score, which I, I think he should be able to do this season, you know, scored 32 last year, 44 in the before that, 31 there before that 42 50. Like the guys, you know, then a bit of 30 plus goal score each and every year of his career, except one season. And that was the, the shortened COVID year where he had 24 and 45 outside of that. It's, he's been money, absolute money, each and every year. Greatest goal score of our generation. And he's going into his final season. One of the caps in Toronto, what's Oby's last game in Toronto, Washington, verse Toronto, made beliefs, let that up. Monday, sorry, no, March 28th, 2027. Okay.

35:35Oh, okay. So they got three games in Toronto or three games against the capitals this year. Is that going to be the next Gen game? Is a December 21st 2 p.m. Game. It's got to be next Gen game. Yeah. So you got the next Gen game. So Oby coming in for the next Gen game, nice little afternoon game. A lot of games. 28 was the Sunday night, Sunday night. Holy five at the final night. And that'll be a yeah, the, the final time that you can, you know, watch the Oby show in in Toronto specifically. All right. So a little bit of breaking news to break down at the detail under the show here. We'll take a, we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll wrap it up here. We'll come back tomorrow and, and preview the game against the Nashville predators. So that'll do it for us here today on the podcast. I'd like to thank you all for listening and supporting the show. You can subscribe to the Lockdown lease podcast and all platforms and receive daily lease content.

36:35Follow myself on Twitter at Mickey underscore. Can I follow Dave at the underscore more a suit in fall to show as well at Lockdown lease. We've got with another episode for you guys tomorrow. Until then, keep a lot to right here on Lockdown Leaves. On Kowshi, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no housing as the probability changes you can buy in and out of your position for a limited time. Download the Kowshi app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10 KAL S H I Kowshi trade on anything 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information. See kowshi.com slash regulatory. The Lockdown podcast network is brought to you by Fandall baseball fans. If you think you know who's hitting a home or today, Fandall was giving you a free chance to call your shot with daily dingers. It's easy to play. Just make your free pick for who you think will hit a home run in their game. If you're right, you'll receive a profit boost to use on your next bet for a chance at extra winnocks. Best of all, you can make a free pick every day throughout the MLBC's.

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