Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 3 Bets: Patriots-Jaguars, Rams-Broncos and more

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1:00Get started at chatchypt.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plants. Toyota's easy choice sales event is on. Whether you're looking for the performance of a camera, the versatility of Arab 4, the efficiency of a Corolla, or all electric driving in the BZ. There's a Toyota that's just right for you. And with great deals across the lineup, now's the time to find yours. But hurry, these deals won't last long. Toyota's easy choice sales event ends soon. We make it easy. Toyota, let's go places. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. The volume podcast network is just a show that makes the squares.

2:00Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm coming to you from a hotel room. That's why I'm talking a little bit quieter today. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how are we doing? We're ready to roll, brother. I saw one of the worst college football games that may happen this year, with Maryland getting annihilated by UCLA yesterday. So I feel like we need to turn this karma around. It is our Sunday morning, NFL Week 3 show. You and I are going to nail down our final five picks for our free Sharpe, or Square, $25,000 pro football. Pick them, contest as a reminder. You can still enter the contest. We are dropping the lowest score up through week five. Go to Sharpe or Square. dot the volume dot com.

3:00There's 25 grand in cash, up for grabs, four free $10,000 to first place. Top 10 winners get paid. Simon. I just want to talk about New England at Jacksonville. We both liked it a two and a half. It's moved up to three and a half in the contest. I don't, three and a half, like, we're always talking about numbers. To me, when you cross the Rubicon into three and a half, on a game that we only liked because it was two and a half, to me, it's out. But it was Chad's choice. So I do want to acknowledge that we see it, but it will not be in the contest. Do you agree? Yeah, it's also a game that we talked about. He's easily could win this game. Yes. No reason to force us one in a front. I get a good number on it. So I agree. I would stay away at minus three and a half. The interesting game here, Seattle minus eight and a half

4:00at Washington. So San Donald is back. The number has gone off. Off of the move. It was at seven and a half. Seattle's down to safety. I've been looking for reasons to play Washington all week. The reason we have the move is it. Despite no evidence, they're worth it. The only reason we're playing it is because Seattle was so overvalued. Washington is a, it's lowest possible point. O and two team at home. Big dog. Is it contest worthy? It's not, but like we said, Seattle breaks all the rules. So people out there. You know, I'm in a really big contest where you can get Seattle six and a half. That's insanely tempting. It's going to be very hard for most people to pass on that number. Especially, you just said it's up to minus eight and a half now. And people know they live in the Northeast. It's a mini hurricane going on outside. So you expect them bad sloppy weather. The best coach team would argue with the best defense of football.

5:01Probably comes away on top. So yeah, interesting. They're rushing him to Arnold back for this game. I think that says a lot about, I'd say I'm worried about his job. But I think anyone sees someone doing their job at a high level, which he did as, you know, a backup came in and what they went 30, 47 last week, like Sam was like, OK, that's enough of that. I'm coming in taking back my job. So I another reason for us to stay away from it, right? I come back from a big injury, bad weather. The numbers move too much. So yeah, another game where it's like, we would have been really happy. If you want a six and a half, even potentially minus seven and a half, but now eight and a half, that's just, that's just too much. I probably will take a piece of Washington now that it's eight and a half, given all the other circumstances, given the weather, given how fluky things can be. But I think there's some other games that we really like for the contest, including Los Angeles Chargers plus seven and a half in the contest at Buffalo. This was our brass balls, traded the week presented by Polymarket.

6:02The market in some places has moved it down to seven, still seven and a half in the contest. Oh, and two overall, we've talked about it specifically for home teams, but oh, and two overall is a trend that even away from home is profitable. The line is just inflated. We got peak bills, cratering chargers. I can see Matt Mitchell shaking his head and discussed that the idea we bet against the bills, at least I thought. And then before we came out of the air, he did say he worries this might be Joe Brady's first trap game. So now I feel even better about it. Yeah, we know the deal though. This is a game where we could lose 24 to nothing. I mean, the chargers look totally lost offensively, but you said it's simply playing the number. Herbert has covered in his entire career has covered every number in his entire career once above six. So if he's a six point dog or higher, he's six known as career. So it's like, I mean, you can go through.

7:03He said some horrible teams. It's some really bad coaching. You expect him to bounce back when it's just they're left for dead like you said, there's no one betting them professional money. And despite that, it's come down from six and a half, eight at some books down to seven now. So just shows where the pros are at. And obviously we've talked about the public. This is going to be one of the top five top four teased money line bet teams in the bills. So I get where Matt's going from. This is an easily an upset alert type of trap game, but we're just hoping for a back throw. Honestly, taking the seven half. We're just hoping for the hook. So, you know, we know we're betting through here. It's been painful watching this chargers team for two straight weeks, but like you said, this is such a spot to take them. The just long term, if you bet it, it's a 70% win rate basically taking these Oh and two dogs against two and oh against the spread. So we're going to get a great up teams in this exact number. So can't avoid it. We're all in on the chargers at this number.

8:04Chargers were 100% be in the contest. Simon as well. I'm predicting the team that we are choosing as our closing time. Later the week presented by Pyle Market, the Miami dolphins, 10 and a half point home underdogs hosting the chiefs. They are trading in 53% on Pyle Market. I was really surprised on Tuesday show. I said I liked it. It was at 11 and a half. I'd like us to have the courage of our convictions and just go with it. Don't be afraid of what's happened to us in the past couple of weeks. Let's make the right call. Let's put the dolphins in the contest. Yeah, we could lose by a twining rate. We're betting on the worst team in football, but it's just about playing the number situationally and they're not going over 18 against the spread. Like bad teams cover. They find a way and three free points, honestly.

9:07Like they're just they bumped it up as much as they could. That's why they're getting so much sharp money and it's another game where I got up to 11 and a half. I was hoping it would keep trending up. If you want the 10 and a half of the hook, like we talked about all those trends, kind of go away. It goes below the 10, but my homes on the road, 0 4 and 1 against the spread is a double digit dog. So, you know, the highest scoring offense ever with Cheetah and Prime Kelsey. They couldn't they couldn't win a double they couldn't cover a double digit favorite. So you expect here. Same thing. I mean, the red always is done right beats up on bad teams eventually takes the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and we we're hoping for another back door, but. Yeah, I can't have this one. I can't have the dolphins went out right. Like everyone else, everyone has the chiefs this week and survivors. So just covered dolphins do not win this game outright. And we talked about this on Thursday. We're not just baking on the trends. We're baking on any read. We're not going full throttle when he's got a big lead in the second half.

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13:18Ebglus, lubricism app LBKZ, a 250-mg per 2-ml-liter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kg with moderate to severe axima. Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies. Ebglus can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to Ebglus. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Ebglus. Before starting Ebglus, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lili. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about Ebglus and visit Ebglus.com or call 1-800-LiliRX or 1-800-545-5979. Carolina at Cleveland. Cleveland is 2.5 point dog. Stay that way the entire week. Stay that way in the contest. The Sean Watson has shown no ability to throw the ball down field.

14:21Bryce Young is only a favorite for the second time in his career. We've been on Cleveland all week. It was one of the few undisputed buys on sharp calls. Are we still feeling confident about the Cleveland Browns as 2.5 point home underdogs? It's bad as companies one can feel about this team. Just looking at situationally though, Coker who you could obviously argue that him and T-Macker 1A1B, like Coker is really stepped up for Carolina. Looks like an absolute stud of receiver. He might miss this game. Lloyd, who you could say they're best defender. I mean, he won NFC defensive player of the week. I believe last week he's missing this matchup. So you can't state how big of a deal that is for Carolina. Possibly missing when they're best receivers and they're best defensive player. We know what we're walking into with this Browns team. But matchup wise,

15:21really, Carolina shouldn't be a favorite of this team. Honestly, like this just feels like we're getting another free tax year of the Sean Watson Browns team. People just, they're not going to be behind him yet. So you even just look at the splits. It's another one where it's like most bookmakers I talked to and markets. They're like, okay, 80% to 90% of all the money is coming on Carolina. It's not shocking. I just, I just don't think the public will view this Browns team is not that they didn't win that game last week. All these things had to break for a certain way for them to win that game against Tampa. I just don't think people trust them yet. And professional wise, I know a lot of guys who have just stayed away from this one just because of that damning stats since 2022. The Browns, they're six and 17 straight up after a win. So it's an organization to just lose. There's honestly, and I get why that's why people are so hesitant to put money into a chat, but we play the numbers here and a plus two and a half. That's great value and a pretty evenly split matchup and might have a little

16:22weather in this game as well, which I do think favors this Browns team in many ways. And we've talked Browns defense. I know it's it's it's early in the year here, but they played two road games and you consider defense a struggle on the road. We've seen their defense over the years has been so much better at home. So excited to see if this defense can step up against right showings played. You know, top five worthy to start the season through two weeks. Like it's really about mitigating him and trying to take away his options on the outside right they can really beat you deep down field with team acting if cocker plays. So we like the matchup for the Browns. It's interesting this number has started moving down to plus one and a half plus one and a lot of a lot of shops. I'm on can says Browns going to Brown F that Houston at Indy this number has also moved from two and a half to one and a half. It was really two and a half up until yesterday, moving a lot on wise guy money and then the Nico Collins news. We want to bet into the Oh and two team at home, especially without Nico Collins on

17:25the text inside. The Texas defense you pointed out has looked pretty ragged just out of shape. Has not been able to keep up. I'm fears are what the Colts will not be able to do going down field. They have not looked explosive, especially now Alec Pierce being out. Wise guys definitely on Indy. I still I this is about where I definitely want to be on Indy. Yeah, another game that I am shocked that just how confident the public isn't using where like you said the defense has shown nothing with any of our expectations we're coming to this season and you could say well, it just played Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Josh had a great game. I'll give him that Joe Joe struggling in some ways, but it was just alarming how open the receivers were and you could say what's a big step down and Josh down. Josh down is leading the NFL right on separation, which sounds shocking to say. These are speedy quick guys. Another guy you expect them a problem with in the Houston secondary.

18:26Yeah, all our bets I will lie. This is the only one that I would switch out for the for the dogs. Really? Yeah, because I just once again it feels too easy. It's like I don't really get it. I'm all in on this obviously a plus two and a half and I'm happy to see it's come down. Not going to lie because it was just it felt too easy where it's another game where I didn't understand why Houston was a favorite let alone by two and a half points where it's like both these teams have glaring weaknesses right now and Houston's all offensive line. So bad. The run game is so bad. If they're just me one dimensional season, they're going to need that defense to be world class. It was last year like they've gone away with two really good CJ throughout games and have nothing to show for their own two. So I know that the fans who are betting Houston are just like, well, it's an indie secondary game. It's going up over a thousand yards. I don't view it that way where it's like, yeah, they also just played a little more and

19:26then the chiefs like this is also for them is like finally we get to play an offense. That's not, you know, world class. So I think this is a good bounce back. Plus the cold fans out there. If you want to take the under I get it. But for me, it's still value you're on taking the Colts and if you miss the best of it, if it's down to one and a half or plus one of your book, it's just another teaser option. You can tease them up if you need to. Same with the Brown season back up this seven and a half or eight, but for us contest playwise, two and a half is what we'll take them out. So it's a one and a half in the contest now, you know, you and I, we oftentimes put our picks in on Thursday after the show just to sort of get some and then we evaluate on the day to finalize. It's going to be interesting because to me, I don't want to go off India two and a half. I really like the number. At one and a half, it starts to make me rethink the situation a little bit. Baltimore, three and a half point favorite in Brazil with a field that looks dreadful.

20:27People keep saying, I can't believe they're going to play in this game. We both bet it when it was two and a half, even a two, even a three. You said it was one of your biggest bets. It's three and a half in the contest. I just think Baltimore is the better team here and I'm not afraid to bet on the hook at three and a half. The field is concerning, but I don't think like to me, this is still one of my favorite plays of the week. Yeah. And that's the only hesitation is honestly the field where you just look at the match of wise and yeah, it's going to be painful. Obstetial hours in the play. He most likely won't just because of the field conditions, but overall this Raven's team, you just expect to bounce back in a big way after it's such a bad loss. Flip side with Dallas. Yeah, they beat up the NFC East against bad teams is what they do. But playing one of the best teams in the AFC, this is the exact type of game that the DAC and the Cowboys defense, especially just struggle. So excited to see what DAC can do because this is going to be a great test for him against

21:28him into our defense that just comes back to his home. So you expect the big bounce back for Raven's defense and offensively. I just, I think we're both the same or it's like you watched that phone last week with Jane Daniels. You could pick up eight yards of clip anytime you wanted to run the ball. And as good as Jane Daniels is, we're talking about Lamar here, one of the best spatial awareness quarterbacks and all the footballs. So yeah, it's a little bit of a, we're banking on Lamar to really show up here because it's the hook, right? Like I just get hurt. It's hurt. It's hurt. It's definitely a fury now, but I'm just happy we have some chalk in here because today I woke up. I just love all the dogs. So I get one forced in the chalk here where I live and die with it. Like we said, it's, we know the risk. It's an international game on a bad field, but I still think the fact that it's under a touchdown under four and a half, another key number. It's a tough take this three and a half with Lamar. I think the only game we talk about in D is a potential switch out. It's at one and a half.

22:29The jets at six and a half point dogs at Detroit. I bet the jets on the money line. I think the offenses are even through two weeks and New York's defense is significantly better. When I get in the best of the number, it's below seven. If I bet I'm on the money line, what do I care? But for me, I'd still rather have Indy than the jets, but I did want to offer it since we were able to get Indy at two and a half in the contest. I think we were to switch out Indy. Would the jets be one of the plays? No. For me, the last two out were Arizona plus eight and a half down to seven and a half. Now, all the news coming out about 49ers losing Bosa. They're down to backups, bench players starting now at the end position for them. They're just, we've talked. They've had so many injuries. They have so many injuries. Bosa came and go in IR. That's how many injuries they have right now. They don't have an IR slot left for Bosa.

23:30So that's another one that jumps out right away where people listening, still in Arizona, still bet them pretty heavily, still taking one seven and a half. Another one I was shocked to have in here just because you liked it more than me, it was Denver. Denver plus two and a half at home against the Rams. Obviously, people are seeing a little bit of a trend here. We're taking every home dog, let alone everyone that's plus two and a half. So they're not all going to win a cover, but this is just another one I feel good about in the sense that, you know, this Rams team, they are down, Mouser, they are going to be downpook here. We've seen defenses that are going to just take away the Wate Adams. Now you could say, well, that didn't happen last week. There is a massive difference between Denver's secondary and the Giants secondary. They have the guys in the defensive corner, take away the Wate Adams. So it's really going to be a heavy run game and a lot of Ferguson, the tight end for the Rams. Interesting how Stafford handles that because it's just, it's a really tough spot situation for him.

24:30The flip side for Denver, you know, they got all these backup running backs in there. That's not going to feel great where that's, looks like the real way to attack the Rams is running right up, running right up the middle. So I game, you know, I'm okay with this passing home, but that was another one that jumped out of these small home dogs that we like. Yeah, I'm glad you brought up Arizona. It was on the list. I wanted to get to that one. Great call. It's just the news about their defensive line, changes the calculus and everything. I was going to put the Niners and Survivor. I'm going to switch it out to the Chiefs because of that division game against a Compend Quarterback with a defensive line that is totally decimated. Broncos as well. I didn't put it on the list because I think I like the other games better than I like the Broncos betting on Bonyx on a Monday night or it was Sunday night or Monday night, I can't remember now. But a night game, when all of our other games are decided, if that has to be the deciding

25:31one, who needs that kind of stress, Simon? I like the games we have, but before we get to the final five, any big, biggest bets updates when we were heading into it at Lanna was one, we know you love Florida. We gave that out of Rare College football, give away in the show on Thursday. We talked about Baltimore, we talked about Miami as we head into kickoff who are your biggest bets? Yeah, I was not too different from where we're going in our contest. Arizona, Chargers, Miami. I would say the big dogs are my bigger bets. I've seen the best thing Cleveland invested in the Colts. I mean, like I talked about it, that field wasn't so atrocious. I would be so heavily bet into this Ravens. It just feels like such a great match for them. All the underlining numbers are just so favorable to Lamar. You're talking about the first time he faces a new head coach. I obviously didn't work out last week with the Saints, but we joke that's just a tradition

26:34for the Ravens. Losing that September game at home is a seven point favorite. It doesn't matter if it's horrible or mintor, that's just who the Ravens are. I know people are worried about it because of the hook, but that's another game I've invested in pretty heavily in this Ravens team. Those 1PMs definitely, I'm so gross, but Chargers, Miami, or the later games, Ravens and Arizona. All right. I think our contest, here's what I think the final five are. Miami, we got it at 11.5 because we put our picks in on Thursday. We still like it at 10.5. We have only plus 2.5. Chargers plus 7.5. Baltimore minus 3.5. We got Indie at 2.5 when it was in the contest on Thursday. It's now at 1.5. If we were to switch out Indie, we would be on Arizona plus 7.5. We are locked in. That's our show. We will be back tonight. 7.30 PM Eastern Live on the Sharper Square YouTube channel with our NFL Week 3 reaction

27:39to after the late games wrap up. This has been Sharper Square. Sponsored by Polymarket, part of the volume podcast network. Watch, we're listening on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Don't miss out on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. In the 1970s, the Bill's mascot was a two-man buffalo. Well, I'll tell you, this costume stinks. No, I mean, it smells like a buffalo. I know that I hate smelling like that. At Edward Jones, we believe Rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being Rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your Rich together.

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30:45This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.