SHARP NFL Week 4 Bets - Patriots-Bills, Rams-Eagles and more

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1:01Nume is built to go long. Built to go the distance. Hopefully like your favorite team this season. It's not about the big play. It's about staying in the game long enough to actually win it. Nume is the leading behavior change company. Nume helps people lose weight and keep it off. The Nume GLP1 program starts at $39 and is delivered to your door in as little as seven days. Start your GLP1 journey today at Nume.com. That's n-o-o-m dot com. Nume. Lose for keeps. Initial one month subscription from $39 plus tax and $99 plus tax per month thereafter. Cost of medication not included. Final pricing depends upon program selection. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Newman.

2:01I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, sorry about your cobs, my friend. Dude, it's rough. You know, I was thinking about it this morning. We had an MVP year with PCA. He went 40-40. Those are historic things. I'm going to take the good away from it. We had a lot of challenges throughout the year. There are things to improve. I'm only positive about this team. I wish I could take like all the, you know, there's all these white socks videos going around about the players celebrating in their glorious and they are so south side of Chicago within that personality. I wish I loved the white socks the way I love the cobs. I wish I could get on the bandwagon. I'm going to be happy for the white socks.

3:02But like, I'm not getting Chicago joy out of it. I'll move on. I will say, also like I got case keynote. So you can't have everything. I will say, I loved the answer that Bryce Harper gave about what happened when you make a mistake and how you rally and move on. And then the next day, he's hitting a bomb for the Phillies in a huge win. Like to me, I've always loved Bryce Harper. This to me just made him so much more approachable in how he conveys himself to the community. Big fan. Yeah, really fun Phillies win that you're alluding to here. Obviously, anytime you have your two top guys, go back to back home runs of the playoffs. It's it's you fork. Yeah, why we love play at peace, but it's also sick me feeling that I just I love I'm enjoying it. But it's also one of the things I hate about play at peace.

4:03Well, so much you live and die so much pitch to pitch. It's just such a stressful and we talked about I mean, the cobs being back to back 10 o'clock games. I feel so bad for the die hard fans just staying up late to watch your teams get smoked after you know, 160 games. It's it's tough, but I was joking with the buddy. I really love the Northeast fan base like we're just I mean, we're just angry. It's I just love back and forth and I've really enjoyed Chicago back and forth between Chicago and Philly fans this last week. And I was saying I just wish Chicago is in our division. Like I wish there's a rotation on a fell of divisions because I always say I wish the Patriots were in my division. Like I love talking smack the pitch trans my pitch trans are going to remember whoever's a fan of this show. I never will ever go on Twitter and blast the team that they're going to get blown out and talk smack them. I did for the page for the Superl just because of their fan base like I would never be that loud unless I knew it was going to be right. And it's just fun like it's fun messing with the pages for everybody.

5:05So feel the same Chicago like it's been really fun messing them. So yeah, I really was hoping for obviously Phillies Chicago baseball series and that's going to I hope the next best. Thanks Phillies versus Milwaukee. So me and Matt and that's going to get after it. But yeah, that that comes season like I said was a really fun season. Just baseball is brutal and the wild car. At least it's not one game. I always say that. Thank God it's three games. But yeah, to get to get swept out to I mean the Phillies I feel lucky that we did get swept but you never know. Chicago fans are just not nearly as angry as Philly fans. Not true. I've never had that experience. Bring up bring up Caleb Williams to a Chicago fan being zesty. And you will get a lot of push back and this guy's tough. And the whole thing again, it's hey, hey, hey, it's all about Chicago fan guy. Don't talk about Caleb Williams. Exactly. Keep Caleb Williams name out of your mouth. Chicago's Chicago's got some anger fans. Don't sell them short.

6:06When I'm thinking I'm mostly thinking about Cubs fans like they they have always have such low expectations. And any win like so many Cubs fans are barely Cubs fans because they're about the experience around rigley, right? They're not like white socks fans are angry white socks fans are south side fans. Nobody wants to go to the south side. Nobody wants to go to their stadium like they're they're the second class team in the second city. They got reasons to be angry. Cubs fans have no reason to be angry because it's always a good time in rigley. Well, you lost the edge. You guys had the edge. You had the curse. I agree. So I agree with that point that you decide. I definitely agree with that about the Cubs fans. Oh, I've had this conversation like a lot of people I know have said. They obviously love winning the world series, but they also felt like Chicago was just another team once Chicago won the world series. And I will say one more one more point white socks.

7:06The whole pope thing. It's throwing me for a loop having the pope be like, yeah, let's try to put God's put God on their side and say he if he can he's going to help in every way possible. It's like, oh my god. So it's definitely so keep your eye on this white socks thing. I love this pope. I love this pope. And I love what he's doing for the white socks. Simon, it's our Thursday NFL week for show. We're a little bit late. We had some tech issues. So we apologize. You're going to hear sharp calls folks brass balls are underdog and favorite round robins. Simon's biggest bets are sharp versus square are discord group or the week. This is the episode where Simon and I will nerd on our final five official picks for the free $25,000 and if I'll pick them. Contest you can still sign up sharper square dot the volume dot com top 10 finishers get paid $10,000 for first. First place still totally free to enter. All right. Every week we talk about our calls on Tuesday every week.

8:06Simon gets an earful 48 hours from his wise guy friend telling us what they like. What they don't like. What they agree with. When they think Simon is being mean to me. It's time for sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring ring telephone ring somebody said maybe what you do with. Yeah. I wish I wish it was like last week. I had we have some new fans of each other like why don't you give out that stuff every week. Guys that last week you have to have so many things line up like that. That Atlanta game. I was hoping it was going to be like Cleveland this week. I was like oh everyone's going to love Cleveland just like me. It's not it's totally split tons of pros really smart groups on Pittsburgh. Guys like me are all over Cleveland. Last week was just truly anonymous, especially that college play like I. I don't want college stuff I can give it out. It's just if I come on you I want it to be a slam dunk. We don't talk college right.

9:06It's every week there's going to be options really. I think the big one this week for the pros is Mississippi State. I don't it's not like it was last week last week guys were telling me they had Florida minus seven. I think this spread was minus three minus three and a half. It doesn't get you get three and a half points of value. It doesn't get much easier for me to come on the show and be like hey take a position on this one now. Mississippi State. It's not the same thing Virginia Tech. It's a really short play this week. It's not the same thing though. So people want college I always try to give it out if I can like if there's an easy. I forget three points of value. I promise y'all come on here and give it out with the pros of betting. But yeah this week for the pros. Kind of get beat up a little bit. It seems like me and Chad are both aligned on a lot of games that are just not professional side. So it's going to be interesting here what people want to do with this because I've already placed money on this stuff. The biggest one it would definitely be that Raiders Chiefs game the pros all over the chiefs and we're all. I mean there are pros obviously on the Raiders like us but it is definitely one of the more heavily called phone calls I got was just like dude you're totally over rating.

10:13This Raiders team. Maybe they're right. I don't know it's going to be hard. It's going to be hard because I did already bet into the Raiders so that one jumped that right away up again. We both loved. We're not getting bullied this week Simon. We are not getting bullied. We're not getting bullied but I'm also like okay I'm not this isn't a slam dunk one of our five now I'm definitely going to have to hear because I will talk more about it but there's definitely a reason to bring it up. Another game I might be deadly wrong one that a lot of pros on the other side of it that Rams Eagles game like I thought it was going to be all pros on the Eagles. Another game we'll talk more about but there are some really smart groups taking position on that Rams team especially when it was two and a half so bad missed by me Arizona. Chad was on it I missed it. Pro's most I've talked of they love Arizona's match up they like the match against the Giants. The number of flux I think Chad said it was plus two and a half went to one and a half flip now to minus one and a half now it's up to minus two and a half on that Arizona team.

11:16Apologies another battery by me to games that I feel like we're on the right side with a lot of these pros Broncos game we're going to dive into a lot of pros love that side. I gave me a ton of time on but I think we will today Atlanta tons of love by the pros on Atlanta against the scenes I think that's another one's a huge public side that seems to me I just think people are believers on the flip side. It doesn't matter Atlanta blew out green bay just no public sediment like right now most shops I talk to it's like we desperately need Atlanta come Monday night and no last one we really talked about Houston. People probably knew that was going to be a pro side right it was one and a half got to two and a half now most books are showing three some pros are resistance at the three for this Dallas team when we talk about the pros do love Dallas but overall that goes really sharp side Houston. That's an oh and three team as a favorite you want to that to often so yeah a lot of interesting calls light a hate in the phone calls this week Chad.

12:19Well I don't mind when we're under the gun when it's just you and me in the fox all leaning on each other play in the numbers I'm excited to talk about that Raiders game. Because I'm not even thinking about it is necessarily a on the field match up as much as I'm thinking about it as a play the number match up so we'll get to it Pittsburgh a Cleveland you mentioned this briefly there's not going to be a lot of people that can work off the advice if they're listening to the show but you know we both like Cleveland and I think it's going to get to three it's just to move in that in that direction I've kind of been waiting to play it until it gets to that three but I did play the under 38. The under 38 and a half and it's it's moving down so if you want to get a 38 and a half you better get it fast. Yeah in a game I told you I was never going to avoid it like this is just my regularly scheduled bet every year we take the browns on Thursday night and yeah could it catch us finally sure but we've won nine straight one more do you guys want it's like this it's exact scenario every year doesn't matter the browns in one to an arrow.

13:28The public sediments not convinced right people do not believe it just for good reason chom Watson's played you could say two good fourth quarters and the rest of his games have kind of been mismatch and slop so I totally get the hesitation by people here but it's really just another year of the browns being under valued whoever they're playing the visual you should you should be Cincinnati this year it's the Steelers another division of team coming on the road that the public is over rating like I just I don't want to overthink this one where I agree it's like could this one bite a share but it's now moving a plus three you have to take that number and if probably market gets us a three and a half it's like oh my god that's great value in this match up that you expect to be a low scoring Thursday night sloppy game and the browns as much people don't believe in them that defense defense looked really good against Carolina last week and you know I know we try to overact this stuff because it's just such a small sample three couple weeks but other than that Jaguars game I mean they look good against the books do and we said that's a lot on Baker was but they still made the place like they still it hasn't been noticeable the difference without miles gear and team that's the biggest thing I've looked for in this browns team where it's like you thought they would have no past rush they get little pressure they've been pretty good again after the quarterbacks

14:46we are through three weeks so Aaron Rogers coming off his best game in two three years I mean he looked incredible I get why the public is hammering them and believe this to their team but I'll just take the points here with the browns and just hope this drink continues on the browns success on Thursday night. Same and the under under 38 and a half. Edward Jones we believe rich is about taking care of what gives your life meaning that's why your financial advisor personalizes your plan to help you preserve your progress and create something that lasts let's find your rich Edward Jones member SIPC the ocean delights us some marvel at the colorful world below the surface the ocean feeds us others find nourishment and its bounty the ocean teaches us how our everyday choices impact even the deepest places the ocean moves us whether we're writing a wave or so can in its breathtaking beauty the ocean connects us find your connection at monoraybe aquarium dot org slash connects

15:50kitchen and bathroom professionals know what goes behind the tile matters that's why trade pros trust fiber cement party backer board to keep tile firmly in place resist cracking and help block moisture chosen over 40 million kitchens and bathrooms party backer board what the best build on shop now participating home depot lows and floor into core stores for more information visit James hearty dot com slash hearty backer all right the rams at filly the lines at three it's trading at three and a half on the prediction markets so clearly there has been money moving this in the rams direction this was Simon says I'm curious to hear about the professional side that you've been talking to because we both like this on Tuesday because of the spot for the eagles you want to be an underdog coming off of a bad game and you want to bet on that team that's an against the spread winner you want to fade the public that's an historic winner

17:00so to me I'm surprised to hear people coming in hard on the rams when it seems like the perceived value should be on the eagles just playing the number in the spot yeah I think it's very telling that I thought this was going to be a slam dunk professional side this week where the eagles jail and hurts he's six and six and no is last six as a dog like he just he's a covering machine the rare chance you get a dog now at home I mean we've talked about his home record he's like 13 to know straight up at home he just hurts is not lose at home and I get this tattoo he's never lost a big bet he's four no against the world he's four no against big bet three no against him and stackers so all this stuff points to it I think the Zach Bond injury he's got a cushion he's not a cushion protocol to most pros I talk through that's the biggest one because he's the difference making this match up where you're going to need him to play and cover these tight ends I mean we've seen what the rams want to run through the raw fence right they want to have two tight ends sometimes three on the field Chad Campbell I mean these stats are glaring

18:13we give tons of love to howie right now howie has a big miss where he let the Kobe Dean walk which I've talked about who's gone to the Raiders and he looks like a top three top four linebacker right now football tackling all of it making just incredible plays right now for the Raiders the flip side jog to how can the combo looks lost and when you dive into his numbers this season he's basically allowed 140 pass or rating which is probably one of the worst and all the linebackers 10 of 12 completions 128 yards in a touchdowns what he's given up right now in coverage that's not sustainable that's literally a guy that should be benched but they really can because they have so much equity drafted into him right the first round pick I don't know if you might play in this game which I think is a big deal for bond like I think this guy is a really good linebacker he probably should be playing a good job so maybe it's not bad that big of a deal but you're asking Campbell now to be in coverage once again against these tight ends who just look great for the rams so that's probably the biggest thing that's been brought up to me about this match up where it's like I think you're really overlooking the fact that Campbell now is moving the green dot he's going to be calling all the plays of bonds out and you know say what you want to say go on he won't be able to do that

19:28the player the fence of player of the week I think two weeks ago like this is you could say the best player on the sequence defense that's struggling right now so it's tough where like this felt like a slam dunk especially play market like I gave it out as three and a half like I couldn't believe you're getting that number in this match up where yeah the ramps could win but it won't be my win at a field goal so I still stayed dug in but anyone out there I get it if you ready to position ramps 2 and a half if your contest is 2 and a half on rams I'm not I want to I want to give you a really hard time about bedminton now I won't just because if Zach Paul is out and I can't really restate how big of a deal that is the rams yeah with pukka back this could be a long day for an Eagles team that I've you know the number is defancy they're one of the worst teams are now football so I get it I wish I came here just saying that they have a because it's such a great spot for the Eagles but if if the injuries are hitting the Eagles like they are right now it's it actually turned into a nightmare to fancy the I am so shocked by this development it the the born injury maybe that's what's

20:32moving the needle here but this to me just feels like come on like the Eagles are the spot sometimes you're playing the spot we're going to talk about this with the chiefs and the Raiders 2 sometimes you are playing the spot and this needs to be a get right get healthy spot for the Eagles sure the rams need to be there too but I'm not saying the rams need to the Eagles need to win this game but if you're getting three points for a team of this caliber that we think could go to the Super Bowl and they're at home I don't know man I don't know feels like it's that's I mean if it's three and a half Sunday morning chat we're gonna have a really I'm not how we pass on that number that's why I don't think of the pro I don't think we're gonna have a hard time I don't I think we're gonna want to put it in at three and a half I hope we have that opportunity green Bay at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay is a three and a half point underdog at home this is moved down from four on Tuesday

21:32what's surprising to me is the massive amount of tickets coming in on the box well North it was that we just see what it says here I think it's about 50 50 percent so it was a 52 percent yesterday so a little bit of movement back to make it even do we think it's the public getting smarter is the public just hating the packers before we came on the show Matt Mitchell and I were talking about the sentiment in Wisconsin right now with the brewers about to take on the Padres and he's like everyone is out on the packers earlier than I've ever seen in the state of Wisconsin Matt we've got to see that. I'm not going to be the one who lives in Milwaukee. I like I wanted to bet the box at four. I love Jalen Daniels the quarterback from Kansas undrafted. He wants to be the thermostat Simon not the thermometer Matt Mitchell play the clip.

22:32One thing I learned in college was you know you you can't be a thermometer you have to be the thermostat. You have to be someone who comes in and is able to set the temperature of the room not test the room and try to be able to blend in with it so if the team is low I have to be the thermostat. I have to be able to pick it up to be able to make sure they're even if we're high then I have to be able to be low to be able to make sure that we even try to be even kill as possible and the team around you feel that. Loves confidence, love as attitude. Love this guy. I know I'm the slowest talking a role but we're pure rather than me talk like him that he is the fastest talker I've heard in a while. My God he's going to be fast to get those quick calls out. Now he's excited man he is excited. Yeah like we joke the devil you know the devil you don't know some people just they like the scenario I mean the trend we talk about these oh and three trends these teams are oh and three playing a team of the least one win. Everyone sees it's 65% like it's just if you blindly bet the bucks here. There's a couple teams that fit that build us we that's in general public that's what they're looking at right they're seeing these trends people are putting out there. It's an easy bet you're getting plus three and a half against what we talk about packers team that you know as much as their fans are in denial in the summer right when I came on your side they might have one of the worst offensive lines of that defense.

23:42You couldn't be a denial right that was before your best offensive tackle got hurt right there's things that latch onto you like well we have great safeties if you're believing your defense and then this is going to take that next step which is true Vanessa's look better but. You just see their defense overall especially into Atlanta they just can never stop the run if you can't stop the run eventually never going to stop the pass right and the guys are just going to have your legs so that green Bay defense. I can see how the books can move it on them right and you talk they have a mobile quarterback down the box like they're going to scheme up some type of plays and we've talking about like this Bakers had guys open he's mistroves and even Baker to admit that he's mistroves he usually should make and you know they still have great weapons on the outside. The guy when I met go boot like these are still great weapons. Buck Erwin's been really good this year too so I can see what the public's betting here honestly but another game maybe we're just missing it's like I still I still tempted to take green Bay where it's just as bad as it's looked I still have a much more faith in their offense moving the ball and scoring points on this box defense and I do an undrafted first time starter quarter back like it's just either you can go either way like that.

24:54This is either going to go either way like this bucks team can come out and this guy could be incredible her own fire they can't catch him like he's just super fast you're athletic we have no idea like I try to go back and watch this tape from this summer. I mean he looked good but it's like he's praying against guys are anyone in one's roster it's just so hard to grasp these back of quarterbacks so happy if we avoid it like we've I gave out that stat like someone's got a cover this one but man these two teams have just been absolutely awful and just either side you bet I think you're going to be disappointed. The teams that you mentioned in the spot where we will be betting some of them the only three teams the box the Texans the chargers Miami I'm personally going to play the box I we can leave it out of the contest for sure. But this just feels like too much fun like I'm not going to play it for like a whole unit even but I do want to rooting interest on this game I want to root for this kid I like the spot I'm out I'm out on the packers is the rest of Wisconsin until.

26:06There are offensive line improves their signing guys off the street it's just everything is going wrong for them right now i'm okay betting on a team in a in a spot like this which is what the box are in as a as a winless team at home as a dog so I've no fear. No fear it is time for our brass balls trade of the week presented by pilot market it is the Denver Broncos trading it to and a half currently at 48% on pilot market visiting the San Francisco 49ers. You know what it takes it takes brass balls we've got what they call in the business a reverse line move which is indicated by the majority of tickets coming in on one side but the money is moving the line in the other direction so.

27:08As you noted in sharp calls the pros are on Denver on the game was three San Francisco minus three. The majority of ticks are on tickets are on San Francisco the line has moved to two and a half. Yeah I was really hoping this is go the other way I was like oh man I like the public the pros they might line up here on this 49ers team who has like great obviously through three weeks and we'll get the three and a half but. Fortunately the pros did come in since we did our last show and I mean it makes sense right by market giving us three and a half that would be a real gift but then back to it just makes sense it's just. It's going to be all professional my this broncos item my opinion like the 49ers could be great this is a great proof of game but you're going to have no pass rush against a mobile quarterback like there's just. The injuries is great spread warner is that he only cover up so much you can't lose a guy like Nick Bosa and other pieces you had on the front line and just expect to keep winning games right we saw we're set that second half he was able to pass as much as one Arizona gets that four years team so.

28:10It feels like the same we could you know we know the deal this broncos team seems to come out slow if you I told you we do want to take a position of 49ers maybe do it first half if you want to but I could just see Broncos don't this game wire to wire and. Pretty can he step up and keep playing MVP level that's we're going to need and this is going to be the by far the best defense he's played all year so really interesting match up wise and. I talked a little bit about I just the broncos we've seen it the three weeks really feel like a truly battle tested team right now where the 49ers I feel like they've got a nice break schedule wise and just feel alone flated like they're a good team this year no doubt when I was a good team they're healthy they be a great team and I feel like right now they're not healthy so. Just a good team they're they're facing absolutely out here in the broncos yeah we don't know obviously Nick bosses out Mike Evans Trent Williams got dinged up expectations are that they'll play but they still were coming off of a stinger for 20 Williams and a. Undisclosed rib injury for Mike Evans this is entirely about a prove it offensive game for Brock party right like he is going against the best defense that he will have faced this year.

29:19And a great opportunity for the Broncos to build momentum off of that game against the Rams maybe they unlock something in the play calling against the Rams especially without Nick Bosa playing and there's other defensive line injuries it sucks that we're not getting the three we're not going to get the three in the contest I don't see this going back down or going back up. But yeah I think the Broncos of the side are pro Broncos are probably going to be in our money line. Partly under dog when you line per lay to so that is our brass balls trade of the week the Denver Broncos trading a polymarket plus two and a half 48%. I need to tell you all about this new prediction market called polymarket it's the best new way to trade in sports in the past if you wanted action on the game you put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out they locked the trade or take a huge fee.

30:20But polymarket is a prediction market a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams I've tried them all and polymarket is simply the best prediction market they're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys they're giving you a free $25 on your first trade when you deposit just $10 and now they've launched a new feature squads. A group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the polymarket app so download the polymarket app today and use sharp when you sign up that sharp to get $25 free after you deposit just $10. Jacksonville plus two and a half at Cincinnati Simon just based on the past week the jacks dominating the past the bangles losing to the Steelers this to me was another fade the public game because the the flukiness in these games is never reflected in the market's point of view or in sort of the standard box scores which is why nearly 60% of the time.

31:31And the tickets are on the jacks and this line basically hasn't budged from two and a half it's kind of being suppressed a little bit by the money coming in the bangles I think it will get the three it's still two and a half I still like Cincinnati minus two and a half. And I think another game of shock though like I thought more pros would be all over the bangles will listen it's another game that's very split not not so much split where it's like the you're making a huge mistake like people are saying we are with the the raiders but a split nonetheless where it's like you're getting Joe under a field glad home after a loss like I said that he he puts on himself and we talk about time Joe I didn't have my top I think I'm at number six but we both view him as a top five up six type of quarterback like this is like I think I had him just behind Drake may. He's a really good quarterback so it's like you just have to believe him to bounce back and it's like you know as much props that we're given to the Jaguar it's like we've talked about it's it's a very small sample we've seen them be dominant at home and struggle on the road like that that Brock is going back and watching it I did say it was a Brian Thompson he had some horrible drops and you even saw this past week like Trevor Lawrence didn't go to him anywhere near as much as he had the week before it's like even he was saying if I'm.

32:49Going down to the park of Washington like I don't care if it's third down now I'm just looking for a land of the one I'm not messing around these these guys who just have the yips it looks like so yeah I this one jumped out from right away of like okay it's under three the fact of the public and professional money is on the Jaguars like Chad said it's not but if this was we came into it and it was you know plus one and a half it's like okay maybe me and Chad are walking into it here like maybe we the Jags are the right side but I think professional money of coming this will get back up to minus three by Sunday like it just feels like this is going to be the right side the pros will come on and I just expect a big bounce back not just from the bank was defense from Joe bro like this just feels like the exact time the game or Joe bounces back and wins these type of scenarios and we've seen his stats play out where he does always struggle the first two weeks where I know they went to no but you've you looked at underlying stats Joe wasn't really playing the Joe's level you saw a little bit that last week like he had a couple balls that were 50 50 balls that did go his way but overall you just want to be more

33:52confident and look more comfortable in that off and so I expect another week here against a banglestein I mean against a Jaguarstein that yes the fact that they look good we've talked about there's ways to attack this defense they're not some type of incredible juggernaut so just looking at matchup scheme wise I think we're getting you know a free half a point here on this banglestein we have to give it angel but it's it's you're getting Joe under a field where I can't say that enough for just these are exact up games Joe usually wins we are so far very aligned on a on a couple of games Denver and Cincinnati for sure I feel like you're waffling a little bit on the Eagles but I'm still confident in the Eagles the next game to discuss the Houston Texans hosting the Dallas cowboys this line has moved up to three this was Chad's choice when the Texans were a two and a half it opened at one and a half moved to two and a half in the last 24 hours it's gotten to three on the prediction markets it's

34:54trading in three and a half so that tells you that that's where the money is consistently coming in um the cowboys have since traded for Joey Porter no idea if that's going to have an impact I don't even know if he's going to play this weekend but this is one of those spots we got a home team winless they're playing a team that's already won but I think we're starting to see this Texans defense get better and better and this cowboy's defense I don't know who's going to be playing in the secondary even if Joey Porter can play because they were just dropping like flies against the Raven so we got to believe in Demiko Rines we got to believe in the Texans covering the short number at home again imagine me a cowboys fan now because you're just it's the same way not that I feel about this country but like having someone in power that's above the age of 80 it's terrifying like this

35:54man is just burning down their future for what like what is he all in on right now with this cowboys team like sure are they good because they won this division yet but do you really like I just can't imagine his mind really thinking they're going to beat Seattle the Rams in the playoffs it's just it's crazy at this point like pickens is a free agent after this year the guy they just traded for Porter is a free agent after this year he they're going to pay all these guys they just traded all this draft capital for it's bizarre with Jerry Jones is doing right now but you can't hate the move if your cowboys for your whole secondary is banged up so yeah bring this guy in but I mean how many times we've seen someone sit out the first three four weeks come in and have a hamstring injury like it's just it's never it feels like it never works out for guys who hold out sit out and then come out come out and play this guy said no physical contact who knows if he's even tackled to the ground in a year like he hasn't since their last game of last season like who knows what he's done and can't with Pittsburgh because he was trying to get paid like he was not going to risk

36:54getting hurt and not getting paid now he's on a new team still not paid like they didn't give him a new contract which it's just I'd be terrified if I was a cowboys fan you just have an owner that just feels like they're they're going a little seen out doing some crazy stuff because they want to win right now which has that ever worked out from anybody I mean go guys the cults about trading first sauce gardener it's it just doesn't it's league it just not worked that way it really really does not work that way it's so rare so yeah I'm I'm happy to see it going up Jaggers is another game where it just felt yeah we talked Sunday night it felt too easy it's it's really did it's like we're getting an 0 and 3 team at home total back against the wall against a team coming back from international game and embarrassing loss like yeah can this can that lead these guys at bounce back like that would give me a ton of respect to them and them going forward this season the cowboys because this is like the worst spike apostate be it just couldn't

37:55it couldn't have been worse vibes maybe they have you know great practices this week but how do you have any confidence in your head coach right now like even shine armor openly admitted he blew that game under the game it just feels so bad such a turning point type of game for cowboys flip side Texans this is to save your season and you have a coach here that how can you not see playing for his job right now like you've had back to back year starting over three he turned around last year went to the went to the playoffs won a playoffs game so you know going back off his history he tends to get his guys right and bounce back in these games and just match up wise we're really hoping Nico is back because like we thought like cowboys secondaries and shambles right now and their best player might be a guy who hasn't played in nine months so yeah we really hope Nico's back that's another reason this number could be going up maybe people already got the word Nico is can be back so that's why it's moving up the way it is so yeah grab the three half you still can there's still a couple of shops you might put a fine through an half but I think by the time everyone hears it's all gonna be three across the board so hopefully people grab it when you

38:57get without channel Tuesday Ben Solack our buddy Ben Solack from ESPN who's been on the show had a tweet the other I think after the Joey Porter trade that the cowboys wouldn't pay mica Parsons I think something like 45 50 million a year and they have since rated four players that they are gonna have to pay if they decide to pay Joey Porter between their defensive line and their backfield that they're gonna have to pay a combined 60 plus million to none of whom have the impact that mica Parsons has that's number one number two we talked about the the spot for the Texans and the spot for some of these winless teams here's a great one from our buddy Evan Abrams over at action winless teams that have performed well against the spread so they haven't been blown out like the Texans 57% against the spread in the past 20 years that's a sample size of more than 400 games another indication this is a pro Joe game about a third of the

40:06tickets are on Houston which is shocking to me but the line has moved in the direction of the Texans and like I said on the on the prediction markets buying the Texans is much more expensive about 54% so yeah we'll be on the Texans Arizona at the New York Giants it's not a contest play you mentioned it I just put it I put it in the script before I knew about sharp calls the carnels were one and a half point underdogs they are now two and a half point favorite to huge swing what were you hearing from the wise guys about this game generally and does anybody think there's a value in betting on the cardinals as short road favorites at this point yeah like I said bad miss by me I wish I was on this carnels one I just right away I mean they was like this is going to be a nice giant spot that is played in a tsunami uh didn't square touch I think they scored 12 points against Tennessee no one's gonna be back everyone's gonna leave in this team for them I mean when James Winston's

41:08through two games is done nothing to give anyone any type of confidence and I mean even his own team is bringing in JJ McClarthy as you know could he be their savior this season I don't know that feels like another future future play hedge I know I've seen crazy with things I will never doubt ever again after Sam Donnell won a Super Bowl like you couldn't you would have told me five years ago I would I'd have been like not possible totally fair totally fair he earned it so JJ we just we both believed so much at koc if koc is giving you away for a fifth round pick something's got to be wrong something's got to be wrong there so I get people's hesitation or it just feels like a stand I need to make especially it's a two and a half now the giants it's just can't they run the ball down their thirts of cams got a boo and just pass the ball down field against a suspect carnels defense it's like this team is not that good it just really is per second half is a game like a percent shows up and he can put up 24 30 points yeah carnels usually cover when this game but I just think the public is too low on this giant's team so

42:13I'm just I was just interested in that every pro I talked it's just like uh carnels no problem like take that number you're getting under a three take that number they're going to be able to move the ball against this giant's team it's like I don't know are we not over in a little bit this carnels team just a little bit so I'm excited to see this one play out because if the carnels do win this game yeah I'm gonna definitely move them up in my migrating right now because this this offense could be really legit maybe I'm under rating them because you know they've looked great week one look great last weekend I guess you could say junk time but they still made the play so yeah really interesting game the back of four three and pros and the public here corner TV potential but we'll both be watching the game uh real quickly Miami we're not I don't want anyone to talk about it I just want to say the box are in that spot they're 10 and a half point dogs uh as a winless team the Vikings are one of the worst offenses in NFL history literally for an undefeated team I think they're averaging like 137 passing yards per game and again shout out to Evan teams that average 150 yards

43:18passing or less in the fourth game of the season or later are 40% against the spread and they're the first team to start three you know an average fewer than 250 yards on offense since Jim Brown as a rookie led the Cleveland Browns in 1957 so look probably not going to be the contest I would imagine both of us are gonna have a little bit of a play on Miami uh I just want to make that case I want people to be aware of that we're not abandoning our principles just because we think that dolphins are really terrible no I hate it the dolphins are going to be in another week of them being one of my bigger bets like I've just keep betting it and it's it's not only because I like the matchup because I've talked this Vikings team they're just they're just living on coach or now they just have such good coach and that's that's the only hesitation because it is Flora is playing against the team he is currently suing so you don't you don't think his

44:18defense is going to go to war for their coach like that is I know people have asked me about that it's like you're not wrong like some of you play sports any extra motivation you can get and that's a big extra motivation this team disrespected this man try to smear his name through the mud so that gives me pause but the biggest one that jumped out to me is it might have been the v-sing guys or maybe it was action guys I don't know where I saw this trend it was on Twitter but basically the Vikings who scored more than 20 points last week and did nothing offensive they had less I think they had less than 10 first downs and are now double digit favorites and this exact spot they're two and 22 against the spread the Vikings so just blindly you're getting a 90% play on the dolphins and I know it's sickening but you're just those are it's just a rare opportunity like that it doesn't happen that often so I'm not shocked to see you know every teaser all the money

45:19everything point on the Vikings and I expect come Sunday this will be a pretty split between the public like I I think the public will bet the dolphins just because people are gonna hear those trends and just look at this like you seem it's like they've done nothing through three weeks and there are three no and three no against the spread and it's been great for me like I've been backing this team and I I'm loving it so it's that's what's probably so hard for me right now where it's like I get it I get why we're supposed to bet the dolphins here but the Vikings winning 20 nothing is on the table like Flora is not letting the dolphins cross the 50 is on the table this man I have to look it up again but he might be at like a 70% blitz percentage this season just a total psychopath I love it like the Vikings defense is so much fun to watch so really really interesting what we we talked about comes Sunday morning because as we said you're right now it's like I feel like we have to play the dolphins and I'm trying everything my body to have us avoid it because last week was so painful but like Chad said we know what we're supposed to do here you're supposed to play the dolphins and not think about it so really a tough one to handicap

46:22Kansas City at Las Vegas the Raiders are 4 1 1 2 1 2nds well you and I both loved it on Tuesday you were wondering at the time why more love hadn't come in from the professionals on the Raiders the spot is the spot you know whether it's my homes is a favorite of more than three or home dogs in the division or two undefeated teams and betting the home dog the Raiders are the side in every scenario the Raiders are the side the trepidation now is concerning um so lay it on us let's talk this through let's see what we land let's have a deep and meaningful discussion yeah the question is are we wrong yeah it's just are we totally overriding this Raiders team and that's my hardest part is that going back and watching all their games it's like the Kirk looks so good he's playing so comfortable in this offense like the fact that he

47:25was doing what he was doing before bours came back and then you saw last week with bours yeah the kubiak is in his bag right now he literally you can say he you can say he spent six months building this offense around bours like it felt like that in that game where he's moving them all over the field line up of all different different places going I mean they're we talk about the two tight ends sets this is a team they're they're pegging their backup tight end like $50 million from the next three or four years with something craze like that so it's a team that's perfectly built for the way the NFL is gone now and genty is looked incredible too so yeah it's really interesting I really can't get rid of the fact of the pros love the chief so much there's something we're missing here because um from what I've seen from this chief's defense is you can move the ball they're just another Ben and don't break type of spags defense where yeah they're not gonna let you score touchdowns and maybe that's what happens here in this game where my homes gets the gets the touchdowns and we get stuck with the field goals on the radar side but I just I'm scared check is this number has not budged despite a lot of pros and a lot of

48:28food hammer in this radar side so if we come here Sunday morning the Chad's on his soapbox and saying I don't care I'm taking the chiefs I might just have to laugh and be like all right we'll go chiefs but I don't know if whoever end up on the raiders um comes Sunday morning because there's just so many things are scaring me off this line so maybe you'll stay you'll stay hard and you'll like the raiders and I I could get push into it comes Sunday morning but right now as we stand there it's like I feel like we should be taking the chiefs from missing something here where it's like where the numbers try to tell us what to do here and we're trying to think we're smart of the numbers smart of the books and usually that's when you get caught I am shot by your response to the feedback from your professional betting brethren it must be you know you've mentioned it on the show a couple times there's there's one group that you really respect that is dialed in on the chiefs

49:28are they having an outsized influence on our conversation right now they're in on the chiefs they lost with us on the amy last week so it's like I wish I could say that you guys are locked locked in but no they're two on one on chief games but yeah they're they're on the chiefs this week they're you're definitely wrong about that they're they're one of the guys that are holding this number up and it's really respected money clearly because we said it's like you talk there's different you know polymark at different shots it's like yeah 80 cents and some of the money right now is all on this raiders team so yeah I'm really interested where this number goes this week because it's I would feel much better about the raiders if we come in Sunday morning it's three and a half then I'm like okay let's let's dance with the devil and go against mom's here but if it's still sitting here for an hour chat that's gonna be pretty terrifying all right well put let's we don't need to be it's not about bravada it's about being right and I'd rather be thoughtful and cautious on Thursday and not try to plant a flag before we need to plant a flag let's get as

50:30much information as we can let's be as confident as possible we still got 48 hours we loved him on Tuesday we're bed into the raiders nothing we can do about that like I'm not buying out of the raiders but doesn't have to be in the final five maybe we'll just put the bucks in instead maybe that's maybe that's what we'll do uh I want to wrap it fire yeah yeah I want to talk this to yeah yeah Detroit a Carolina Carolina plus three and a half Sunday night football you know the word was whether or not Bryce Young would play I believe he is going to play he's expected to the panthers defensive backfield JC Horne cornerback Mike Jackson cornerback both on IR right now to be honest is that like we could we could try to dissect that part of the game that's not really the word like whether they're in or out the panthers are going to have to score on practically every possession we're betting on Bryce Young to beat up the Lions beleaguered defense but we also know the Lions are going to move the ball we know it's an outdoor game that doesn't

51:30boat as well for Jared Goff historically I still feel pretty good we want to be on Carolina here I'm bed into Carolina at the three and a half I am too but it's brutal like you you want two starting corners especially in this matchup against this this deep overseering course so yeah another number that's just bizarre I mean those that injury news all came out and Chad just said the number didn't budge at all so yeah come Sunday night the books are at desk point need the panthers I mean who who's not betting from the public betting this Lions team just we know the deal this is a team that could easily stream all this panthers team might put up a ton of points so be careful people in the total here I think a total is 51 and a half I would say that kind of is like the type of spot where you want to take the under it's two two offense that people are really hyped on they don't believe their defense is usually this is exact time both offenses fall on their face but I was shocked to see that high of a total with everything is going on with Bryce Sean and this offense like it feels like panthers

52:34there's ever a game they're gonna run the ball more this would be it like the Lions just they're not great against the run either so yeah I mean I want to talk to this one because people asked about it I'm still with Chad I'm still on it with the panthers it's just not ideal now it's losing your number one number two cornerbacks against an offense and we talked about it's just anytime they need a third down obviously there's no one that could stop on months in brown right but you can mitigate it in some ways and now they're just kind of basically have to play zone this whole game you're never going to be able to run man with backup corners against this offense so you're gonna be running a ton of zone with a bunch of blitzes against golf can I work here I mean it has to you right we've seen Jared golf's numbers he's horrible especially this season he's been horrible when he gets pressured so that's what it's going to be it's really going to be a ton of zone with a ton of blitz and care lines gonna live in diamond the flip side line team can they take away Bryce Young's options down feel like co-curry if he's helping this game to be determined we need him to be healthy though like this is one of these Sunday morning we're fighting about putting this one in I still don't know if good for him to play

53:34or not I would have forced this one he's he's been that great for them and you saw a lot with the Browns they only scored one touchdown like you can't say they didn't matter not having in that game they set four field roles in that game so yeah another another injury to keep your eye on that to me is the much more important injury than the defensive backs because they're going to need to score non-stop no matter what totally agree with you interesting game it's another one we're gonna have to put a pin in I will say 35% of the tickets on Carolina as the home dog right now if if you haven't that Carolina and you're still curious you can probably hold off this line is juiced to move like it's gonna go to four by Sunday you might be getting it four and a half at prediction markets if everyone else is moved before so something to keep an eye you don't have to rush on this one it is time for our discord grouper of the week I know how much you love the

54:34discord pre-order the number at read the number dot com get an invite or raise the money for Saint Jews when you pre-order the book speaking of my book the number Matt Mitchell we're still to video clip this week from long time listener john gauay which Matt was like to play for us right now I don't know what this is so I'm excited to hear it by my book by my book by my book it's funny you know what's funny so I mean the other day you came after my artistry and what I loved is in the YouTube comments it YouTube comments are amazing but they're ended up being a very long thread in which I weighed in on about art and commerce and who is a true artist it was about Leonardo da Vinci Renoir Rembrandt I just thought it was

55:38hilarious that in the middle of a betting show comments section there were comments about can you be an artist if you are actually doing it in the pursuit of money and my point to that is yes because you want to continue to create art and part of that is commerce which is why I pitched the book because I worked hard on it and I'd like people to buy it and so I can do it again and don't forget if you buy ten of them I'm doing a book club with you whether it's zoom or in person I've already had a couple a couple of those people email sharp or square at the volume.com with their proof of purchase so I can do it so thanks for sparking a good discussion Simon I know you want to weigh in well the other reason I said that was just because you were literally breaking down to us why you're you're selling your book is it for we're all idiots it's like we know we know why you're selling your books buddy you don't have to break it down to us why

56:38you're trying to make money selling a book you love writing books but yeah that that's just a I say like there's a bunch of artists experience that's one of my favorite ones I mean the biggest one truly is how can you be an artist in life if you're not suffering which I do agree with like if someone that does what I think is a form of art sports betting it is better when we suffer right if we're always happy and it's all good we're always winning you're not low you're not learning you're not growing or you're not getting better at your craft so I do think that is part of it and yeah like anyone out there that's a suffering artist I always tell people if you believe in it like Chats it's it is technically a hobby it's not your job yet stick to it man everyone that's in the position of success all started out where you were at man they just know what's going to believe in you have to believe in yourself so yeah like Chats Chats wants to make a living doing what he loves I'm gonna make fun of them about it but like that's literally the dream in life so people go go after your dreams man it's it's your life you're in total control

57:42couldn't be said better I got my older son just graduated from Forexel and he wants to get into the video game business and wants to write the stories the narratives for adventure games tabletop games like dungeons and dragons things like that I keep telling them dude it's a creative field it might take you 15 years you might be working part-time at your rock climbing gym for a very long time and I have friends in the movie business who took that long and then they made shows that have become some of the most popular shows I'm not even exaggerating in history uh and now they're wildly successful it's it you just don't know there's no path for when you want to be in a creative field uh Simon's right you do have to suffer it's nice if you can put food on the table and you suffer for the art not because you're hungry uh but I appreciate all the support uh this week the winner for the discord groupers an outline parlay of buffalo minus one

58:44and a half in Seattle minus one and a half both games against teams in the patriots and chargers in serious turmoil right now we got that at minus one twenty five Simon what should we do for our underdog round robin parlay feels like we want to put the Broncos in there oh definitely I'm going to talk about a lane as another one of my bigger bets this week I really love it lannus at plus two and a half so that would definitely have to get in our uh I run robin I just think the public's still too low on pennics uh yep I just needed to see he was able to move in the pocket I know he's not going to run roam the ball right he's coming back from some major in the injury but I was so happy to see his movement inside the pocket so um that's another dog I really like so yeah then Broncos I know I didn't give him the most warming love to him but the Eagles plus one forty yeah I got the Eagles in there sure the dogs are really good to us last week that's that's my only hesitation we banked so heavily

59:47I think we've formed one last week on uh our door we did yeah so it's uh we're going back to the well on that one for sure um uh we throw the international game in there just because it's plus one sixteen an international dog I know the international dogs aren't great that was not I'm thinking about maybe we should have yeah I don't I don't love that one but okay what about Tampa like that's all you I know you love Tampa look why not sure it just feels like I wouldn't do but they they fit the 0 and 3 against a one and yes so like they do fit that trend that bill so I won't fight you on that we should we be doing you know someone who's a bit longer that isn't Miami a plus ten and a half yeah like our longest our longest one is one I just I know I'm gonna get ton of shift for by the pros but I mean the Raiders I would do it yeah I only did mention it it's plus 180 all right so do the Raiders so our underdog round robin rate you imagine we're sitting here on Tuesday Raiders or 4 now then now Denver Denver Atlanta Philly Tampa

1:00:56Las Vegas those are the underdog round robin partly our favorites round robin we tend to only do three of those you know since he yeah since he's definitely Houston Houston I like doing them a little bit shorter so we can get better price how do we not throw the bears in I mean I know it's a letdown spot but it's like that's interesting I just that one jumped out right away where you you expect them to just on a short value we're talking here it's like they feel like that's decent value they're minus 170 minus 175 currently three and a half point favorites over the jets all right since the Eddie Houston Chicago before we jump into your biggest best brother reminder to everybody that our Sunday morning shows will not be live on our YouTube channel starting at 11 a.m. Eastern this Sunday the podcast will be released immediately after but if

1:02:01you want to hear the final five in the most immediate way Sunday mornings join us live on YouTube at 11 a.m. Simon's biggest bets. I mean like that was a brutal part of a game played by the Eagles I thought I was gonna be my bigger bets but I've backed away from that one so right now since the end of the best it had heavily into I was to be able to use them we've moved that number from two and a half now up to three of investing that one pretty heavily. Denver plus three you can still find it getting on it that's one of my bigger bets as well and the Falcons touch plus three I bet it really heavily it's backed them to an half still gonna keep betting it that's another game where you hope the public will chase after Sunday night in the Monday and we'll get back to three so that is one bigger bets I'm not gonna tell you to go heavy on the plus two and a half I went heavy on the lane a plus three. All right last week for Sharper Square we both lost I had one the week before so I get to go first I want to avoid it being Chad's choice which was Houston Simon says was Philly our brass balls

1:03:07was Denver I feel like the only option remaining is to take the Raiders plus four and a half so I'm going with the Raiders and whoever keeps track give me give me credit last week because I did say it would have been a Lanna but because I knew people didn't hear it I don't know what I gave out but I gave out something else but Atlanta was my you ended up giving out I gave Miami plus 11 and you gave Baltimore minus three and a half and to be fair you did say Atlanta and you gave out Baltimore you had to give the three and a half but there are two and a half three yeah we had been betting him two and a half really two and a half early in the week so I talked big game on this team so I'm gonna try to back about here who'd you go Chad you went Raiders yeah I guess man I got to do it like oh wait we did that as her press balls okay I'll do I'll do since he then I'll do since he minus two and a half all right yeah I've talked a lot about

1:04:09Joe I'm being really believing that team so I got I got to back it up all right there we go last week's survivor pick was Kim's city this week I mean you got to go I'm gonna sew it I was gonna say we got to go with the Vikings right it's gonna be brutal yeah I mean if they if they blow but yeah like all the ones that really jumped out I thought some people try to get smart with it take Packers I do someone that's like we're already been knocked out of survivor pools don't end your season taking green bag against an unknown quarterback on Tampa there's obviously no safe bet here so she I mean you're looking at someone that's I feel like I've lost three out of four years on collar Murray and survivor pools but it's it's so many points and it's a revenge spot for Flores so yeah let me let me take the Vikings this week in survivor and just get it over with never to play them again all right it's gonna be the Vikings in survivor that's our show folks Simon and I will return on Sunday morning

1:05:16with the final five for a week four we'll give out our official picks in the $25,000 free pick them in contest sign up now Sharper Square dot the volume dot com this has been Sharper Square sponsored by probably market part of the volume podcast network watch or listen on youtube at Sharper Square like this video subscribe to the channel download us from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe leave us five stars say whatever you want feedback is a gift until next time love you what in the world there is absolutely no way possible that they should have snapped that ball and tried to sneak it there were three four five guys this is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human