The Rate Update — 🚨 Inflation Just Spiked Above 3% — Fed Decision TODAY (Mortgage Rates Warning)

0:00Work moves fast. Every email, report, and proposal counts. That's where Grammarly comes in. It's your one place to think, write, and finish. Grammarly's AI agents help you find natural phrasing, fine-tuned tone, and confidently write wherever you work. It's the premier writing tool that 93% of users trust to get more work done. In a world of generic AI, don't sound like everyone else. With Grammarly, you never will. Download Grammarly for free at Grammarly.com. Hey folks, Andrew here with some breaking news this March 18th, 2026. So not only do we have a Fed meeting coming out today, and they're going to tell us what they're going to do, we had producer inflation just came out. It was twice as hot as it was expected. We kind of called that. So if you're watching this video, you might be a homeowner, you could be a home buyer heck. You could be a realtor loan officer trying to figure out what heck's going to go off those today and this week and the wise behind it. So folks, my name is Dan Frey, I'm the host of the rate update. I'm also a licensed mortgage loan officer licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico.

1:02If you need help with the mortgage, I'd love to help you. I'll give you all my information at the end of this video. You're here for these. So let's get to it. So we got good news. Well, not good news today. We got some news coming out later this afternoon in five hours. We have the Federal Reserve coming out and they're going to tell us exactly what they're going to do. There's a 99.3 or 0.7% chance that they're going to do this, but let's get to one piece of the puzzle I really want to show you. Here's the data we go over on a daily basis. Now that's the rate over there. That's what the Federal Reserve controls. You have to know these things because today's report that we got inflation and then when the Federal Reserve comes out and tells us what they're going to do, it's not painting a very good picture. Let me just give you a recap what's going on right now. So if you're on the Federal Reserve, let me put you in their seat and you're seeing this stuff right here and you're saying, okay, I have to say today if I want to cut rates, if I want to keep rates steady or maybe I want to raise rates. So here's what got going in the background. We have, I don't know if you guys remember, there's a government shutdown still going on right now.

2:03We have the war in Iran. We have the war still going on over in Gaza. I think that's still going on. We have the Russian Ukraine war. Terrorists were deemed illegal. So now they're working their ways around the system there. A government shutdown, like I said, then we have midterms. This inflation number is going to really help the left on this one. But I don't want to get political. Let's get over and dive into these numbers that are coming out. So we want to look at inflation. We want to look at the jobs report and we want to look at the GDP. If you want all this data on your own, because I always want to say, I'm going to give you the data you need to make your decision. Don't watch me to figure out, okay, should I buy a house or should I refinance? Make your own decision. My goal is just to give you the tools to do this. So one piece of the puzzle I want you guys to do is go over to here. This is the B.E.A. This is kind of all the government data that basically had their fingertips. You can go down through here and see what the national economic account is like GDP. This is where GDP is showing it kind of fell off a cliff recently. Personal income. How is it? Well, it's up 0.4 a month or a month. It's pretty good. Pretty good increases.

3:04You're at least keeping up. We're exceeding inflation. So check out these reports because there's a lot of data here for you guys. If you're trying to forecast where rates are going or even looking at economics, check out that website. But here's what I want to go over. Here's the data that came in today. Wednesday. We got one big piece of information, the PPI. What is it? It's producer inflation. I've been saying, okay, here's what we're going to see. We're going to see a January effect. And I know it's March. But here's my expectations. The manufacturers are going to push their high prices into us in January of 2026. Here's why. I know a lot of people in the industries and they're like, we can't do it in 2025. There's too much chaos out there right now. So we know the big beautiful tax bill is going to help us corporations and it's not going to put a little more money in people's pockets. I'm going to show you how people in COVID during COVID times had a lot of money in their pockets and that's what created inflation. But when you look at this PPI number, it's kind of shocking to the markets. But if you're watching me on a daily basis, we kind of called it.

4:05If you go through here, here's what the core PPI did month or a month. It was last reading was 0.8. It was expected to be a 0.3. I'm like, it's not going to be 0.3. It's going to be higher than that. It'll be 0.3, 0.4, 0.5 maybe. It came in a 0.5. Okay, and then if you go to the PPI number, this is kind of what everybody's looking at. They said it was last reading was 0.5. It's going to go to 0.3. And can I say this is, don't be surprised that this comes. I didn't think it'd come in this hot. But it came all the way at 0.7. So this is a hot, hot number. You got to look at producer inflation is twice as hot as expected. Not good news. Okay, so let's get over and see how the markets are reacting this. But I have to give you the details of kind of what's coming down the pike. And the reasons why the markets are going to be flat as a pancake until we have what was coming out today at 1. The Federal Reserve is going to tell us exactly what they're going to do. So today, the Federal Reserve is going to come out and they're going to say, okay, here's what we're going to do to rates. What would you do? Okay, let's go back for a second. If you're looking at the Federal Reserve's data and you know now that the producer inflation is twice as hot as expected.

5:07Okay, so you're looking at inflation and you look at the PCE. That's the personal consumption expenditure. That's what the Fed watches. And you're like, that's 2.8. It was down here, but they want this at 2. Well, if you have now producer inflation twice as hot, this is going to go over 3. Okay, so that means inflation is not going down. But now if you just look at that, you're like, okay, the Fed should increase rates, right? Well, now you got a jobs market that we really don't know what's going on. Then if you look at GDP, previous readings on GDP was 4.4. And then it went to 1.7. Now it's at 0.7. So the GDP is going down. That means GDP, the gross domestic production and the economy is starting to really slow. Okay, so let me give you some other tidbits today. The M2 money supply. Just giving you some history here. The M2 money supply is how much money is in the system. So how much is the Fed actually printing? Let me show you what happened during COVID and why we had inflation then and why we had inflation that we still can't keep under control.

6:10Okay, so here's the M2 money supply. How much money is in circulation? Let's go through here. And it's just gradually going along through here. And this is what it did for years. Just gradually went along. Then all of a sudden, boom, what happened? We went from 15, let's say 15 all the way up to 20, we almost doubled the money supply. That means the Fed just printed tons of money. So what did this do to me? You actually put a lot of money in our pockets. So if you go over to here, this is a real disposable income. Now these are government numbers. You don't have to believe or not. But this is where the average person had how much money they had in the bank after they paid all their bills. Let me go through. Let me show the max. Okay, the max. I was born way back in here in 1965. Okay, so we used to save money. My dad would try to save a buck or two here and there. But over time, you try to save money just to have a better life for your family. And you just worked hard and did what you had to do. And I got an economics video coming out. So if you want to have higher wages, make yourself more valuable. I got an economics 101 video coming out. I think you're going to be interested in.

7:13But then all of a sudden we had right through here is like, okay, it's gradually boom, what happened? People had tons more money in their accounts than they normally had. This is COVID. Okay, this is when the Fed printed all this money. Okay, send it out to money people and just checks of all times. And the Fed at that time should have really stopped printing the money, but they kept printing and printing. And it created an inflation. I was actually kicked off. Actually, I had my first person that ever had me on a live YouTube event and they actually deleted it right after. They're like, he's crazy. Come to fruition at this point. So what do I think is going to happen today? Well, the Federal Reserve, they're not going to do anything. Let me get to the Federal Reserve charts here so I can show you guys what the most likely outcome is going to be. So we're going to go to the CME Fed watch group. So in five hours, yeah, in five hours, the Fed's going to meet. What are they going to do? There is a 90. I can say 99% chance they're not going to do anything. Meaning they're not going to cut rates. But we want to really pay attention to is after they come out and say they're not going to cut rates. They're going to read this thing that they read all the time. They're going to change just a little bit of verbiage.

8:17That verbiage is important. And I'm going to go over that with you today. And an hour after the Federal Reserve comes out and tells us what they're going to do. Why an hour? Well, we're going to wait also for Federal Chairman Powell. He's going to start speaking to the media. That's when it starts getting really juicy. That's when he starts giving really some content. The direction would happen behind the doors. And that's when we really get to understand what the Federal Reserve talked about and what their thoughts are. And that's when really the markets start to move. So at that point, I'm going to bring you in, show you what the bond markets are doing and the other markets are doing. But let's capture that right now. So right now, I expect these things. Well, with this terrible inflation number, this thing I thought would crash. But they're going to sit on the sidelines and say, okay, we're just going to wait for the Federal Reserve to do what they do. So if you're new to my channel, the only thing I really pay attention to because I'm a mortgage advisor, this bond right there here. Okay, only have to understand that number up through there. If it's red, that's not good news. That means mortgage rates are going up. The bigger the number, the bigger the adjustment. So if you want mortgage rates to get better, this thing has to go up.

9:18So let's look at a two-day chart. Oh, that's pretty good. But let's look at a five-day chart. Well, if you took a couple days prior to this, we're almost getting back to normal. Normal or back to the low ends was rates at 5.99. So let's get over to my expectations. I've been saying my prediction for this quarter is rates are going to be between 6.875. I'm sorry, 5.875 and 6.25. Well, we toppled my high estimate right there. And it was just a blip in the radar for a couple days. And that's why I said, my high range is going to be 6.25. So back to those levels. Are we going to get back to those 5.99 levels? Subscribe over there. So every day when I post a video, you can understand kind of what's going on in the markets. The Y is behind it. And then you can figure out what you think is going to go on with the markets and the Y is behind it. So folks, I do have something special to give you guys. If you go to stand store, sorry, I didn't pick it, pull it up. And you go to, right through here, you can go to my store, calculator store, it's down below. So I'm not trying to sell you anything. All this stuff is free. Just go there and get it.

10:20If you're a home owner, how much can you afford? Can you refinance? It doesn't make sense. If you're a home buyer, what programs do you fit into? What's that payment going to be? Are you looking to consolidate? It's all here. So it's free. So if you're a realtor out there, grab it. You can show your clients how much can you qualify for? If you're a loan officer, we got tools in here. Nobody has these mortgage calculators like we do. So they're all free. Check them out. But if you're a home owner in your, or your home buyer, let me tell you a little bit about who I am. So it will be alive today at two o'clock central time. I'm going to show you guys basically what's the reaction on, on all these markets right after the Federal Reserve comes out and tells us what they're going to do. But if you're a home owner, put your information up in that section right through here. It says ratewatch 2.1. So what that does is it monitors rates for you and also payments. Okay, so here's what I did. A lot of people just, they're like, okay, I keep missing these low rates. Well, how about if you let me track them for you? So we're going to track two things. I'm going to track the rate for you. So when the rate hits kind of where you want it to be, I'll call you a text you email you will go over what the numbers look like.

11:21And if you want to move forward, great. But a lot of people get putting numbers in there like I'm at seven. You know, when rates hit three, you're all refinance. It's like they're never going to get the three. So put in how much you would like to save. Those are triggering every day. So check those out. If you're a home buyer, got a whole bunch of programs here. Our goal here is to help coach you basically from application to keys in your pocket. Now, I'm a loan officer. I work at a bank. I'm licensed in all 50 states. The cool thing about it is I'm also set up with over 35 different lenders. So our bank is set up with almost 40 different lenders. Why? Why are you watching this? You're trying to figure out which program do I qualify for? What's the best rate and what's the lowest fees? Okay, I'll get you approved. And then we have the ability to do unless you want to do it on your own. Like putting your application there, there, there, there and there and have your credit ruined. And then everybody gets back with you and you don't really know even know what they're talking about. Look at me and my team during this whole process. So go to the rate update and you can find all that information. But let's get over to see what my expectations are for today. The bonds are going to be flat until the federal reserve meets. Meet me then.

12:24But if you go over to it right now, bond market right now is down five ticks. Red isn't good, but that's not enough to really move the markets. But let's get over to the stock market and see how the equity markets are doing right now. Got the Dow Jones in the red S&P in the red NASDAQ in the red oil in the green. This is an unscinderella story. What do I call an unscinderella story? If you got money in the market, you probably got money and equities in one of these markets right through here. I mean, you're losing money. Oil, I hate oil over, remember, I kept saying over $65 a barrel. Now we're over $95 a barrel. So that's huge inflation and it's going to keep going until there's an end of this conflict. And then that's pushing up yields right through there. Now let's take a chance and go to crypto. It is I would expect it's down as well. There's also some legislation that just went through for that. We'll talk about that in some other time. But right now the stock market, the equity markets, they're going to basically sit on the sidelines other than Bitcoin. And just wait for what the federal reserve comes out. But that inflationary number that came in this morning folks, this is a hot number. And I don't really know what now what the federal reserve is going to do because the jobs report is looking a little shaky as well.

13:28So my expectations are they're not going to do anything, but you're going to see the markets kind of freaking out because of these inflation numbers. But if you subscribe to my channel and you watch me each day, you knew these numbers are going to come in the higher they expected. And I think the economists missed it again. We got it right once again. So thanks for watching this morning. That is it for this morning. I will be live today. Check us out even if you tune in just a little bit so you can see those instant market reactions. Otherwise, if you're homeowner home buyer, maybe you understand a little bit more about what's going to go on with these in the wise behind it. Thanks for watching. Don't forget to subscribe over there. And I got 7,000 over 7,000 videos on my YouTube channel. So check them out. There's got to be something there to help you learn a little bit more about real estate. Thanks for watching. See you next time. Bye bye.

14:41Thanks for watching.