Power Play #2267: EXCLUSIVE: Michael J. Fox weighs in on Canada-U.S. relations

0:00Hi and welcome to Power Play. I'm Mike Lucuitur. Tonight, a pipeline to unite. Prime Minister Mark Carney is fast track to propose the oil pipeline to the west coast, and he's also stagnating it in the national interest. Now with the Alberta referendum, just two weeks away, is this enough to ease tensions between the province and the feds? In moments, we'll speak to emergency management minister Alan Ardolshewski, the Liberals only minister from that province. Then back to the future and up the ranks of the order of Canada. You're excellent to see Michael J. Club Canadian actor and activist Michael J. Fox has been promoted to the highest level of Canada's top civilian honor. It's e to be news senior political correspondent Judy Trin caught up with him at Rito Hall for a TV exclusive.

1:05Fox weighed in on the state of Canada, US relations, and we'll tell you what he said coming up soon. Plus, hitting the home stretch. If they don't want any referendum, they should vote for the coalition. I hope we get support among English-speaking co-beckers. Because we have a solid team. We're all in the same boat. We're in the final days of the Quebec election campaign in the Pazikibekwa is on the verge of a majority government. What does it mean for that province end? For the federal government? Our front bench will be here to break it all down for you. Today we've got Zina Astrovaz, Jamie Elerton, Karl Balange, and Marie Vastel. First, though. We begin tonight tracking the fallout of a massive milestone in Alberta's longstanding push for a new pipeline. Prime Minister Mark Carney has designated a new pipeline to the West Coast as his first, his government's first official project in the national interest.

2:09It's also being renamed Pacific Link. The 1200-kilometres southern route will span from Alberta to the Robert Banks port in Delta, BC, will largely follow the route of the existing Trans Mountain pipeline. There could be shovels in the ground as early as September 1st of next year, with the goal of having the pipeline operational by the year 2032-33. And once it's all completed, it's expected to carry an extra million barrels of oil per day. The government insists there will be mutual benefit agreements that could see contracting procurement and employment opportunities offered to first nations along the route. First nations are also being offered a 10% stake in the pipeline. While some are welcoming that news, others are vowing a legal fight over what they say is a lack of consultation. Elner Ocefsky is the Minister of Emergency Management and Community Resilience and is the Liberal's only Minister from Alberta, and she joins me right now from Edmonton.

3:15Hi, Minister. Welcome back to Powerplay. Oh, thank you so much for having me. At the outset of this process in November of last year, the Prime Minister said that if there is not a private sector proponent, there will not be a pipeline. While Pembena does have a 10% stake and the other percent is 90% being funded by the federal and provincial governments at this point. So I'm wondering why your government changed course on that commitment? Well, it's my understanding and I believe the case to be that just with respect to de-risking, it made sense for the federal and provincial government both to step up at this point in time with respect to this particular pipeline investment. What we saw previously with respect to other pipeline projects is that and other projects is that proponents would invest sometimes billions of dollars without knowing whether or not a project in the end.

4:18Would receive the approvals that it required and this as Premier Smith mentioned the other day sort of sets this a little bit on its head and enables the project to go ahead at this point in time to have the permitting and approvals and all of the things that are required. So in place there is a private sector investor by way of Pembena is expected that there will be indigenous investment as well at a minimum of 10%. So I do expect that over time there will be more private sector involvement that's catalyzed by the announcement that was made by the Prime Minister. So I mean that the both the governments of Alberta and Canada will in a sense sell off their stakes to these private sector investors if they do come in. Well, I suppose I'm saying that that's a possibility and that the final ownership structure is not known at this particular point in time.

5:20I wanted to know how your government can be sure that Canadians will get value for the billions of taxpayers dollars that they will be forced to pay for this pipeline right now. Well, I think what we can do is to look at the Trans Mountain pipeline, which at this point in time provides billions of dollars worth of revenue to the federal government enables the federal government to fund to fund public programs. And so I think we do have a precedent and a very strong precedent in place with respect to what we can anticipate the economic benefit of this project to be to Canadians. And so you know, we can talk about the billions of dollars that will be earned through tolls and revenues. But the other thing that this project will do and was of course mentioned by the PM and premier Smith the other day is provide jobs for up to 140,000 Canadians from coast to coast to coast.

6:22That's a significant does a significant accomplishment, you know, especially at this point in time when we are concerned about global uncertainty. We're concerned about tariffs and you know, our neighbor to the south. There is a real imperative at this point in time for us to diversify our economy and to lessen our dependence upon United States, if you will. And so there are so many other, I think, incredible benefits to Alberta and to the country that will be occasioned by this particular announcement as it moves, you know, as the pipeline moves forward through the process. But with respect to have any companies that are saying they even want to send their oil through that pipeline right now to ensure that it will be viable. Well, we do have an understanding from the organization that represents oil producers that they will have and do have sufficient producers to be able to fill that pipeline.

7:30So that's not a concern that we have at this moment in time. I want to ask you about your government's plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Canadian Climate Institute estimates that this new pipeline could add roughly 20 megatons of oil stand production emissions annually. The same group calculated that if you go forward with every part of the MOU with Alberta, which does include the Pathways Carbon Capture Plan, Canada would still be behind by 20 years in meeting their climate targets. By moving forward with this pipeline, is your government abandoning those targets? We're not abandoning our commitment to climate action at all, nor with respect to protection of oceans and wildlife. And so, you know, you brought up the Pathways project. It was a condition of this pipeline going ahead that the Pathways project would be intertwined and an integral component of that pipeline.

8:30And there will be an announcement made the next sort of deadline date is November 15th. And I am very confident that we'll have an announcement with respect to the Pathways project by that date. And it's as I've said, this government is committed to taking action on climate change. And if you listen to the announcements that have been made by Minister de Brucine over the past number of months and also by the Prime Minister, it's very clear that we intend to proceed with projects such as this without detracting from our commitment to taking action on climate. I take that point and I understand you're not the environment and climate change minister, but at the same time your government has weakened industrial carbon pricing, delayed methane gas regulations, made changes to the electric vehicle policy, and you also canceled the oil and gas emissions camps.

9:31So, how can you say you're still committed to your climate goals if you've done all those other things to move Canada further away from their climate goals, even trying to achieve net zero? Well, then I think we're overlooking some of the other things that this government has done. And so in particular, if we look back to the MOU that was signed between Alberta and the federal government in the very, in the very preamble of that document, there is a commentary statements with respect to net zero. And with respect to further on in the document, all of the other ways in which Alberta and the federal government are going to cooperate in an effort to reduce the emissions. And that's partly through the development of a better electrical grid also through other clean energy types of projects such as solar. And so that was built into that MOU document. There were subsequent agreements made with the province of Alberta with respect to methane emissions with respect to a price on carbon.

10:45And so just that project and that agreement, I think that is a great sign of the efforts that we're going to continue to make with the province of Alberta regarding the pipeline project in particular. And again, there are many, many other commitments that have been made that have been announced by Minister de Brucine with respect to just oceans itself, which is a, you know, a concern that people will have regarding this pipeline project through the oceans protection plan. We've invested $3.5 billion in that regard and the Prime Minister made in another announcement the other day of another 1.2 billion that will go to protect oceans. And so there are so many steps being taken in terms of, as I say, protecting oceans in our environment and reducing emissions as well. And certainly the announcements that were made a couple of months ago regarding electricity across the province of Churchill, sorry, across the country and the Churchill's falls, Churchill's falls electric project as well.

11:58Or I think again, great examples of the efforts that this government is making in that regard. And I acknowledge those efforts and those steps forward that you're taking, but is it also not a step backwards when you consider for a second, I'll maybe go into your realm here as emergency management minister, you've been dealing with destructive years when it comes to wildfires. Two of the last four years have actually set records in terms of total destruction in terms of hectares as well. When you consider the connection between greenhouse gas emissions and climate disasters, isn't extracting more oil to burn something that's counterproductive? Just again, all I can do is repeat what our government's commitment is, which is what I've said already, you know, we're at a point in time where we need to protect our energy sovereignty. We need to protect jobs in this country, we're at a pivotal moment in the nation's history with respect to where we stand regarding global uncertainty and, you know, the tariffs imposed on us via American friends.

13:12So we do need to protect our economy, we do need to move ahead with energy sovereignty, we do need to reduce our dependence on the United States with respect to energy exports. And so we can do this pipeline and we can and will retain our commitment to reducing emissions and to making sure that we, as I say, protect our oceans and our wildlife. And we're going to need to be able to do both of these at the same time and we will do that. And just with respect to the pipeline again, over the next year, you know, the project will culminate in a conditions document with respect to this project, there will be conditions attached that are environmental conditions and they will have to be complied with by the proponents in order for that project to succeed. And so that's just another protection that we will have in place with respect to this particular project.

14:18And in fact, all other projects will move through the MPO. No, and understood in closing, I wanted to ask you because you are the only minister from this government in Alberta, how much of this government's decision. Putting this as the first project of national importance, how much of this is trying to convince Alberta separatists that Canada can actually work? Well, I think I would answer the question this way that from the moment the prime minister was elected, and in fact, the platform that he ran on was to unite the country to make sure that all regions of the country could share an economic prosperity. And to make Canada a leader, an energy superpower in both conventional and clean energy. And so it was always intended there, there would be projects, including pipeline projects that could make their way through the major projects office. And so, but that said, so that's something we've been working on since this government came into power.

15:23That said, I think this is a fundamental example of cooperative federalism working. And we know with over the past 18 months, Alberta and Canada have spent hours and hours and hours collaborating, working on this project, seeking to cooperate and collaborate. Talking with one another as opposed to past one another, recognizing that there is a common goal and a common ambition and understanding that to get there, we have to. That we won't necessarily agree on everything, but where we have a common purpose and objective, we can get great things done. And so I think this project is fundamentally. The nominal example of how cooperative federalism can work. And I know Albertans that I've spoke to across the province over the last number of months, most of them are of the same view. I'm sorry.

16:26No, I just want to be clear, you're saying that there's no connection between the upcoming referendum or the upcoming question on a referendum on separation in Alberta and the approval of this pipeline. Well, this date was set as the approval date October 1st, quite some time ago. And this project was put into the project, major projects office quite some time ago as well with a number of subsequent agreements signed. So I'm saying two things can exist. Number one, that the prime minister indicated that we would put count it on the position of being an energy superpower months and months and months ago. At the same time, the projects of phenomenal example of cooperative federalism. Okay, I'm going to have to leave it on that. No minister of emergency management and community resilience. Eleanor Oshawski, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for your time. Thank you. Appreciate it. Coming up, our very own Judy Trend spoke with beloved Canadian actor and activist Michael J. Fox for Canadian TV exclusive.

17:30He's just been promoted to catch companion within the order of Canada ranks, which is the highest level. He gave his thoughts on the current state of Canada, US relation. Have more on that after this. Do you ever think about a random pop culture moment like something that dominated the culture and then quietly disappeared? We do constantly. This is bestie listen. Every week we revisit the most niche corners of pop culture. This has shaped us for better or worse. And ask, what was that? And more importantly, what do we love it? We celebrate it. We question it and give it the level of analysis it absolutely did not ask for. Stream bestie listen on iHeartRadio. Crave or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Powerplay. A Canadian born Hollywood star is in the nation's capital today. Getting promoted to the highest level of Canada's top civilian honor.

18:39You're excellent. Michael J. Fox. Fox has been promoted to companion of the order of Canada. It's an upgrade from to the red insignia and puts the actor among the orders of most distinguished members. Canadian actor is being recognized by Rideau Hall for his powerful advocacy and sharing his candid experiences about living with Parkinson's disease. His foundation has helped drive billions of dollars towards research into the disease. Fox is widely known for his roles and back to the future. And family ties are very on Judy Trin was there for the ceremony caught up with Fox in a broadcast exclusive. She joins me now. And now privilege it must have been for you to speak with Alex P. Keaton as I know you loved him on family ties. What did he say when you specifically asked him about the Canada U.S. relations and the state of those relations right now? You know, I think the best way to describe it is a description that he gives. He says that he wears his order of Canada pin.

19:47But since 2011, that's when he was first inducted. He wears it publicly to big events. He did so two weeks ago at the Emmy Awards, but he also wore when he was receiving the presidential medal of freedom. So you can imagine having those two recognitions on your sleeves and take a listen to what he said. I think it's doomed to success. I think we were so alike. So culturally, I mean, there were key differences based on our origin stories and things like that. And you can find ways that were different. But in many ways we're the same. Interesting how we are so much the same yet so different. But he still lives in the U.S. with his family as well. What did he say about being a Canadian in the U.S. at this moment?

20:47Well, he is unfailingly optimistic about this relationship. You heard him say, we are doomed for success this relationship. His wife is American. He raised his kids in the U.S. But he comes back to Canada two or three times a year to visit his brother and sister. And what he has said about this when I asked him, I said, do you feel the need to defend Canada? And this is what he responded. Do you feel that you have to defend Canada more given this political approach? No, no. The people in the United States. No one ever met other than some government people have expressed it. Well, probably. But you don't run into it when you talk to people. Americans love Canadians. It's first time. So Americans love Canadians other than perhaps in the political sphere where, you know, barbs are exchanged. But this is a man who clearly loves both countries and doesn't feel divided loyalty. But he does believe that these bonds between Canada and the U.S. will hold.

21:59Yeah, and something that we hope that continues. And with his work down there as well. Thank you for your work on this Judy Trin CTV's Senior Correspondent. We really appreciate that. Still to come on Powerplay. Count down to the Quebec election. Voters are just days away from heading to the polls with the Paz de Quebec law on the verge of forming a majority. Is there any party that can stop the PQ? And how would a separatist win affect the federation? Our front bench will tackle those questions. We could see the AstroVas, Jamie Elerton, Carl Belanger and Metvastel. They're all standing by. And they'll be here after the break. If they don't want any referendum, they should vote for the coalition. I hope we get support among English-speaking co-beckers. Because we have a solid team. We're all in the same boat.

23:03Co-beckers are desperately asking for change. There's two changes available on the table. One that would lead to a referendum. But we are the last wall standing against austerity. All the other political parties want to cut in the public services. We cannot trust the political parties, the other political parties, with your tax dollars. Quebec is in trouble right now. Just a snippet there of the final campaign messages from all five parties before voters in Quebec head to the polls on Monday. The outcome of this provincial vote is guaranteed to have political implications far beyond Quebec's borders. Right now, it's a five-way race with the Paz de Quebec law holding the lead. Fordability and cultural rights have been dominant issues, but so has cross-border trade wars. As is often the case in Quebec, though, a possible referendum on sovereignty. Also hanging over voters right now.

24:06All of this, as the ruling coalition of Avnihoud's Quebec, looks like it could be wiped off the map. So how could this change politics in Quebec and right across the country? Let's ask our front bench. As you can see, the Astra Vaz is the former adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, now Vice President of Wellington Advocacy. Jamie Ellerton is a principal at Canaptus, and he worked for Minister Jason Kenney during the Harper government. Carl Belagie is the former interim national director of the NDP. He's now the president of traction strategies. In Maddie Vastel is with me here in studio. She's an editorial writer with No Dove Wall. Carl, I'm going to start with you on this. Is it a sign that the PQ are very confident when in the last week of the election campaign they start talking about abolishing the monarchy? Well, it's certainly driving the point that they are in the driver's seat. The beginning of this mandate, one of the key issues that the Patskivikwa score points was about the famous of the monarchy that the MNAs had to swear.

25:15They refused to do that and they forced a change in the national assembly. So they're completing the bat circle. The Patskivikwa feels pretty good about their chances. The PQ will now be a minority or majority. Whatever happens, it might be the lowest support of any government ever in Quebec. The PQ has never passed the 30% party. But never passed that during this campaign. Mary, that's so remarkable. I think we have a graphic that shows that the Patskivikwa, this was the latest numbers that we had from MNAs just about a week and a half ago. They were at 28%. The Liberal Party was at 24% coalition. We have Quebec at 22%. And the Conservative Party at 16%. And of course, Quebec is at 9%. When you consider these votes splits, I mean, it's pretty incredible. We've never really seen this in Quebec.

26:17Well, the last time five parties were up to actually having people elected and getting seats was 1976. So you're correct. It's been a long time and that's what makes this race. Carl's right, we pretty much know who's going to win, but it makes the configuration of the national assembly harder to predict because they're really tight races, depending on the region where you're at. But I do think that it being a given that the Patskivikwa is going to win, but also it being a given that the Patskivikwa is going to win with the leader that is resolutely separateist. He has said he will have a referendum whether he's a minority or a majority government. And he is already sort of picking fights with the federal government on constitutional changes to accutize with the monarchy or seizing on Mark Carney's very short comments on perhaps maybe one day increasing. Control demigration in his New York Times interview, but I'm going to say I'm going to know the leader of Patskivikwa seizing on that and jumping on it. It really already sets the tone for what will be a very different dynamic and these liberals haven't really seen it.

27:23We haven't had a Patskivikwa government in power in Quebec in in 14 years and one that wants to do referendum in 30. And so I do think as calm as they seem for now, things are going to get complicated because this cooperative federalism that Mark Carney has been pitching in Alberta isn't going to be quite as easy to pitch to Poetsnipiapudamila. And Zida, how much of a bomb is this for Carney to try and now dismantle, right? I mean, like this is something that he will have an issue with no matter which way you slice it. I think dealing with the Quebec government is always a different kind of set of cards for the federal government, no matter who is in power. I think one of the biggest challenges right now is you see Alberta's behavior in advance of their referendum vote, extracting some key things that they've been advocating for for decades, including a pipeline that Prime Minister Carney and Danielle Spitz spoke about just a few days ago. We will see that up and a pressure increase on the federal government from the province of Quebec 10X, 20X more so than usual, I would predict.

28:31And that is the regular course of business in dealing in politics in Quebec, but I really just see it amplified. And one of the biggest challenges for Mark Carney is that he's looking at a number of bi-elections in the province of Quebec that he has to call after the general election, which is upon us in the province. So that will be an interesting dynamic to see what shakes out on election day with a majority minority constellation, but then how he deals with his caucus members, of course, the Liberal Party federally has a lot of support in Quebec, a number of bi-elections, a couple potential gains there. So it'll be a very complex operating environment. I predict a number of cabinet ministers will be deployed to the province of Quebec to make sure that those ties are strong, but they're really talking to someone who said, you know, no referendum right now, but we'll see in two, you know, in your three and your four had that place out. It'll be, it'll be a challenge for the federal government. That's for sure. Yeah, and Jamie, and I think it's worth noting that every, but see Quebec, while a leader who has campaigned on calling a referendum in the past, and they're having to them, they've both done so.

29:40Yeah, it's a really real possibility, Mike, and I think it's also kind of curious that the Peaky leader has also put his distance and kind of giving that pledge that he's not going to call it until Donald Trump leaves from office. And I think that both creates opportunities and challenges for the federal government to manage this kind of going forward. I think one of the bigger dynamics, especially when you look, obviously the federal liberal party has a very strong support base in the Montreal area, and it'll be interesting to see whether Quebec Liberal parties numbers come out on Monday here. But Mark Crennys caucus is actually quite extensive across the rest of the province right now. And so what does this going to mean for him in terms of managing those caucus dynamics elsewhere across the country? You have seen kind of Canadian shift in truly allowing the federal government to lead on this and looking at their provincial governments, yes, to continue to stand up to Trump, but really to like deliver on provincial issues of what premieres are typically responsible for. And so how this all squares out I think is anyone's guess what I'll be looking to see on Monday night is to where are the Quebec Liberal numbers in Montreal and the surrounding regions.

30:40Are they large enough to be the official opposition and what will the Quebec Conservative Party be able to accomplish in and around the Quebec City area and our federal conservators going to be able to translate that to future success. And also interesting Carl because you haven't seen a lot of not correct me if I'm wrong. You haven't seen a lot of federal cabinet ministers campaigning with the Quebec Liberals at this point. And so you know that's an interesting dynamic, but I'm a little curious as to what the Patsy Quebec law might be trying to leverage out of the federal government not to say for Daniel Smith it was clear, you know, get a pipeline and that's what it is. But if there is a list what's on the Patsy Quebec was list to try and get out of the feds. Doesn't really matter because they don't necessarily want to get anything. Now they claim that the 70s party are the best at getting things from the federal better than the equation in the Quebec of the Liberals. But the truth is that this guy wants to pick fights. He wants to pick fights because he wants to make the case that could be better off outside of Canada.

31:41So you cannot buy peace by promising a pipeline like you didn't know that it's not going to work. So it will be quite a challenge from Mark County to handle, especially since he doesn't have that. And Quebec background that other prime ministers add when they face a code except for this party in power and Quebec City. So it's not going to be easy. And remember the first speech that Mark County gave on this issue was the famous planes of Abraham speech. You know, it didn't go so well. So the pay keeps banking on that is banking on that lack of knowledge that Mark County of Mark County to build their case. Now, Jimmy mentioned the timeline. It's interesting because the nice trick that the pay you played because in the living of blue, they always said that their agenda was going to be two or three years before putting forward a referendum, which happens to be after Trump exalts. They played that car to try to be a shirtbackers because a lot of them don't want to refer in them right now. And they still don't yet. He's still forging ahead.

32:45Just on the list, if I can jump on with Carlos saying, I agree that his modus operandi will be to pick fights. He's already started because that that pumps up the independence argument. If you know, he can say that the federal government is infringing on Quebec jurisdictions. Also, though, it was sort of easier. I don't want to minimize it, but easier to agree with Alberta because their interests. It aligned with the prime minister's goal of diversifying our markets, energy going up. I think it was an easier concession for him than the Patricay Bicquat asking for more complicated things that don't necessarily work into his thinking for the country. Immigration, more control and immigration, more money on health transfers, the monarchy. He's against the high speed trail going to Quebec. It's also that the issues that they will have to sort of try and agree on don't really mesh so naturally as with Alberta.

33:50I do think that with the concessions and the MOU and the agreements with Alberta, Mark Carney might have painted himself in a corner a little bit because now anything less he gives Quebec. They're going to reach on that and say, see, we're being treated differently. So he might have tied his hands by agreeing more easily with Alberta. Anything less in Quebec is just going to be denounced. I have 30 seconds if you can do it in 30 seconds. The difficulty of basically trying to deal with a leader who won't take yes for an answer. I think that's where Mark Carney is just going to say, hey, I'm the prime minister for all of Canada. Therefore, we're going to have to do these things. I don't think there's a different option. The federal government has dealt with difficult provinces, whether it's Quebec or others in the past. That's always, they govern for the country and for all people. When they just have to drive through that, I don't think they have a different option on that reality. Okay, we're going to leave that subject there for right now until Monday.

34:53Obviously, still to come on PowerPay, PowerPlay. A tale of two parties. New polling is showing that the liberals are at an all-time high. Meanwhile, Pierre Paulier is saying goodbye to another member of his caucus. So what does this mean as parliamentarians are back next week? We'll ask our front bench after this. Brian Adams Radio. Now available on the free IHR radio app.

35:53Welcome back to PowerPlay. Turning now to some federal polling research from NANOS Research. Voters appear to be rallying behind the government's handling of the trade dispute. As relations with the U.S. and the economy completely dominate the top of worries for Canadians, it's all comes at a brutal moment for Pierre Paulier. He's already fighting a persistent deficit in the polls and it's just lost another MP to a sudden resignation. So what are all these polls showing? Let's start with ballot intention. The governing liberals have pushed to a high of 49.9%. The conservative is trailing behind at 27.9% the NDP meanwhile sitting at 11% federally. Now that same trend is showing that preferred prime minister, Mark Carney, he sits at 61.5%. Pierre Paulier, meanwhile, he's at 19.6% and undecided actually beats all other leaders at 10%.

36:56Let's bring back our front bench right now. Zida Astrovass, Jamie Ellerton, Karl Belange, and Marie Vastel. Jamie, I'm going to start with you on this one. Not a great week considering those numbers and the news of Scott H. H. Asin leaving the conservative caucus for Pierre Paulier. What does this do for him as he is going into this next week with the House coming back? I think it just starts another difficult week for Pierre Paulier on this. I think when you look at where these numbers are, it is undeniable that Canadians continue to rally around what Mark Carney is doing. And frankly, 25% drop of the conservative vote share means a lot of people who vote conservative in the last election are liking where Mark Carney is going on especially economic issues. And so I think this represents a challenge for a party in a few ways. I think when you look at where Pierre Paulier is today, the only one actually cheering for his demise seems to be Jamile Giovanni who wants to play in the ashes like it's a sandbox with his grand delusions for what his political future holds. But for the rest of the party, it's how can you take dissolution Canadians who feel shut out from the system where the status quo fundamentally isn't working, especially younger Canadians who find it harder and harder to get on the ladder to start to climb and build those milestones in their life with how you were formed the federal government.

38:10The two work for everyone and continue to speak to people who fundamentally believe in Canada and wanted to succeed in which is why they're supporting what Mark Carney is doing. And it's a real bind that Pierre Paulier finds himself in, but it's clearly what he's been doing is not working. And I think he needs to take down the fever pitch. Ardent partisan language that he continues to use, which quite frankly, he had abundantly on display in his Rick Bell column this week and find another lane to buy some time for himself. At the same time, Zid, I mean, we saw this week that he's basically trying to really go after that, you know, pocketbook issues talking about taxes on diesel gas as well. I mean, does he need to stay in that lane? You think or is it a shift that he needs? I mean, I think the conservative should have shifted their message after the message didn't work in the last election. Like Mr. Paulier has not changed his message at all and voters didn't buy it in the election and they're not buying it now. Right? And I think there is a big challenge for Mr. Paulier and his team.

39:10They have not been able to pivot at all during the campaign and in the year and in a bit after the campaign. They just haven't been able to find their feet and have gone back to their same old message track, which got a resounding no in the last election. I think one of the other challenges for Mr. Paulier is that people just don't like him, right? And it's really hard to work with like a talent, essentially if we're talking about a person where people have just turned and tuned him out. And the reality is like a confident calm in control leader and that's what Canadians are looking for right now. And they've been able to vote for him and they remain happy with what he is delivering. And it's a challenge for him to keep that up. But for Mr. Paulier, I think they have to try something new because it's just not working. And I think if they stay on the same message track, it's not going to it's not going to change really. I'm wondering Carl, though, how much is Carney really just benefiting from the circumstance that he's in, you know, the trade dealing, the trade issues with Trump.

40:13The fact he's able to get some of these other things done as well, obviously a credit to the liberal government being able to work with other governments. But is it just circumstance that is leading to Carney's rise and Paulier's fall? Well, for sure, the circumstances play a key role here in the time of crisis. People tend to rally behind their leader, which is why the numbers for preferred prime minister are higher than the voting attention. That's a good indicator that people are willing to give him a lot of leeway. But the truth is that he's also not dropping the ball according to Canadians. Like they would like to him to do something and he's doing as good as they expected him to do. Or else they would go somewhere else. They're not. So, so, Mark Carney, you know, we should take comfort, but the thing about these polls though, it depends how far we are from an election. We now have a majority. Mark Carney, I don't think cares much about having a super majority because he can do whatever he wants right now. So I don't think we're going to see an election anytime soon.

41:15But if we did have one, you could get that liberal super majority and really crowns the opposition. They kind of gamble that David E.B. is trying to do in British Columbia. I'm not sure Mark Carney is willing to do that, but if he were to do it, I think his chance would be better than the E.B.s. Yeah, and there's no real indication at this point, Mary, that they are going to try and do that. I mean, probably looking at BC and realizing that there could be some pitfalls there. But, you know, what do you think is the key for Carney to sort of stay on and maybe for Paulie have to try and pivot on? Well, I think Carney is doing a pretty good job, but whatever he's doing. I mean, I think it's circumstantial, but I also think it's the person's CV. I think people trust him in this instance. I do think he has to be careful a little bit about rushing decisions, taking decisions kind of unilaterally, whether internally with his caucus or externally without necessarily really warning premiers or warning Canadians about what he's going to do,

42:20because fair enough, a lot of what he is doing wasn't necessarily in the platform, because we didn't necessarily expect things to go so south, sorry, for the punt with the States, the United States. But you do need to kind of bring people along, because you do risk at some point, people getting impatient, but the fact that you're kind of doing a lot of things, not going rogue, that you didn't necessarily say you would do and they didn't vote for. For Mr. Pauliev, I think that the pocketbook issues, cost of living, price of gas, things like that, housing, I do think those are things that he should keep talking about, because it does resonate with a lot of people. I think the tone is a problem, and he perhaps needs to recognize sometimes when he thinks the other side is doing something that's not that bad. You can't constantly say everything is terrible when the government is doing things that you have asked for. At a certain point, it kind of starts sounding a little disingenuous. But the problem with Mr. Pauliev, is that the liberals are kind of eating his lunch right now for lack of a better expression, like this specific link pipeline,

43:22that's something they would have asked for, and they would have done if they were in government. So it really leaves very little space for the leader of the conservatives, and with these bi-elections coming up, presumably before Christmas, maybe even before December, and some of them not looking so good like Brandford, what I'm hearing is he cannot lose that one. People will not let it slip, and liberals are pretty optimistic. So it just seems like you almost feel bad for Mr. Pauliev, it's like a water torture drip, drip, drip, either they leave, or they go to Senate, or they retire for better days. So Jamie, how key is Brandford looking forward? We don't know when that's being called just yet. How much of a test of Pierre Pauliev will that writing be? I think it's a real test. I think that's why you also saw the party appoint a candidate that has high-probac poffa being a mayor, and they're getting started early and not waiting for that election to be called, because I think they know they're in for a very, very, very tough fight. And I think part of the problem you're seeing right now, if I look at the Ontario numbers, I have lost track of the number of people who start conversations with me, who have known me for my 20 years involving conservative politics,

44:27and say, you know, I'm still a conservative, but Mark Carty is doing a lot of good things on the economy and on pipelines. And like, yeah, deficits are high, but like, at least he's putting it into the military and investing in the Canadian Armed Forces. And so if those former conservative voters, part of that 25%, that apparently have left, if those nanos numbers hold out, are people who essentially live in that anecdote. And so I think the challenge for the conservatives, and where Pierre needs to find a track to do, is to constructively agree with the government and commend them on direction, and do so in a way that says, how could we do this faster? How can we make sure we're actually procuring, and looks to be a part of these big picture solutions, that quite frankly, a lot of conservative support, as opposed to liberals are about all the time evil. And as a result, you're seeing liberal numbers nationally at 50%. Like, this is absolutely wild. Carl, how far do you think that could take him in terms of changing that profile, changing how people perceive him? Well, yeah, I don't know that he can. I mean, they've tried a number of pivots, you know, since he became leader, and every time something happens, his natural comes back.

45:34His behavior is stolen, as Mary said. I don't think you can change that. And so that's a problem, because it's not working. It's clearly not working. And the circumstances make it so that, you know, he was the anti-true dough. He was the guy that was the X-Teeces to Justin Trudeau. But right now, he's not the X-Teeces to Mark Carney. In fact, Mark Carney is doing better as a conservative prime minister than what you would. So people are quite happy in terms of the support of something you all done. The last question to you, Zita, you know, the liberals have seen heights pretty high. Think back to 2015. Justin Trudeau was flying high for a little while there. What is your message to the liberals to not get too close to the sun here? I think it's always one of the most important things in politics is like touch grass. Like figure out what your voters care about and make sure that you bring that voice to Ottawa.

46:35I'm the work among the team in order to keep moving forward on the priorities that your voters sent you to do. I think it's very exciting to see those polls, right? And everyone says the polls aren't real if they're on the other side. But it's just keep doing what you're doing. Flag issues that are important to your constituents and work through them. And I think the thing about this government too is that they're being real honest with voters on what the challenges are. I imagine that the budget will set out what those challenges are after we've seen a prolonged challenging period with the US. That's not going to be an easy conversation, right? But I think Canadians really understand the situation that we're in. And for liberals, it's just notes to the grindstone and keep working. Good advice from Zeta for the liberals and really for all of us. Touch some grass once in a while. Zeta, Ash, Jamie Ellerts, and Carl Belange, and Matthew Vastel. Thanks so much. We're going to be right back in a second. Take a look at what's next.

47:47Oh, life at the Hollywood pool. Lights, hotel, tickets, and a thousand dollars cash. Listen to I Heart New Music for 10 minutes a day on the I Heart Radio app and click enter. Every day you listen is another chance to win. Here's the monogamous. Stream my Lee's new album, Bass per Swade's today. And just before we let you go, here's what's next for the coming week and what we're keeping our eye on. The Quebec election is Monday in that Bedpreah Vice. And as you heard on our front bench, the PQ is poised to form a majority government. After that next week, the MPs will be back in Ottawa. They were in their writings for the past week and it's just one week though because they're going to be back home again for Thanksgiving. Well, that's your power play week in politics. Thanks so much for sharing your time with us. I'm Mike Lutur. Have yourself a great weekend and stay tuned because your top headlines are just ahead.

48:59I'm Luke Wilson. Join me each week for Film Never Lies. Since retiring from the NFL, I've had a lot of my mind now. Got my own show. So if you're tired of lazy takes, if you want honest conversations, join us each week. Film Never Lies available on all TSN platforms in the I Heart Radio app.