Paul Murray Live | 21 September

0:00Your path to pharmacy can be closer than you think. West Coast University's hybrid doctor of pharmacy program can be completed in as little as 33 months, and no bachelor's degree is required to apply. If you've started pharmacy coursework elsewhere, WCU may accept eligible transfer credits to help students keep moving forward. Learn online, train hands-on at our Center for Graduate Studies in Los Angeles, and prepare for real-world pharmacy practice. West Coast University, as real as it gets, visit westcoastuniversity.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. What I'm going to talk about, petrol prices. Why? Because it cost me literally almost $200

1:03to fill my car. But where's the Prime Minister? Well, he's about to go and accept a award for being a great global citizen, because you know, when Australian Prime Minister started to care about the world, more than what's happening here, it never ends well. The Intergeneration Report came out today. This is sort of Christmas for nerds. It happens every couple of years. It gives us an insight into where our country is headed. It is not good news. Tim Wilson is the shadow treasurer. He will give us his opinion in a couple of minutes time. A reminder, this weekend we're going to be in Bathurst for our town. It is a massive room. So we need the biggest crowd we have ever had. If you're a fan of Paul Murray Lyber, News 24, if you can get to Bathurst, the Motor Museum, on Sunday night, send us an email right now. I need to fill the room, okay? Our town at news24.com. Thank you. Thanks, the good people. Of Harvey Norman, we are there. Bathurst a couple of weeks out from the race, but I promise it's a whole lot more than just broom-brooms. Now, we have a Prime Minister and a treasurer who would like to think that economic management is one of their strong suits. The reality is it is anything but. And Australian politics is often

2:07about distracting from the reality of our circumstances and we fall for the distractions. Like a Prime Minister who campaigns on an issue that no one was going to change and that, of course, was Medicare. You've got political figures like Jackie Lamby, who, well, if she yells louder than whatever the boring report is that day, that's where the coverage goes. But the intergenerational report is something that's been around since the Costello Howard years, in terms of economic management. I know that it was the Howard Costello years. And there is one graphic that I've shown you now. Since the last intergenerational report, almost every week, it's this one. This is the one that shows that inside that red box is every expected budget deficit between now and the 2060s. That number and every one of those lines, of course, adds up the deeper the deficit, the deeper the debt. A trillion dollars of debt is what we're in right now. And if all of that's true, then we're on our way towards 1.2 and 1.5

3:09T for trillion dollars debt. Now, Jim Sharmas thinks the politics doesn't matter about all of this because, well, there's other things to distract you. But the reality is, be it a house, a business, or a country, if you constantly spend more than you get in, then guess what? You get into a world of trouble and confirmed yet again today by the intergenerational report, is something that cuts through the distraction, the spin, and a sobering reality of our country is now upon us. Across the whole 40 years, the federal budget is tipped to stay in the red. For the next 40 years, Australia has budget deficits. Now, tonight I want to talk about what is a very provocative proposal, but it is one that I truly believe. Australia is broke and is broken. This report tells us three big things that really matter. We'll get to all of these things.

4:15But first, no light at the end of that deficit tunnel. It really matters because, of course, it all started way back when we decided to get rid of the Howard Government and we went from money in the bank to owing the world an awful lot of money. Then COVID happened and we owed the world an awful lot more money. Then this government happened and we owe the world even more money because the government is obsessed with taking one dollar from here and spending two dollars over there. They want to say that we've clipped the ticket a little bit here and we've changed this there and we've raised a little bit of tax there and we've pulled a bit of spending down, but fundamentally, what was the case three years ago is even more the case today. And when confronted about this fact, Jim Charmers, who is a great believer in modern monetary theory, this is the idea that you can run up to it if you're a government because nobody will ever call it

5:16in. This is what he had to say when he couldn't hide, when he couldn't distract, when the reality was that the same people who put the budget together every year are telling us that there will be a deficit every year until the time of the Jetsons. Remember that cartoon series from the 1960s, bubble cars and robot maids? Well, that was set in 2062. These deficits now go to 2065. We shouldn't assume that the risks to that 1.2 productivity number are all to the downside. As you can see in that scenario, we've presented for AI in particular, there are upside risks as well to that productivity number. And so we think the 1.2 strikes a pretty effective balance. Now what he's talking about is percentage of GDP. We have to find out, rather than talking about raw dollars, right? If you percentage of GDP, normal people go, but the graph that was so clear that I've been able to show you for the past three years is one that does immense political damage to the government that wants to distract from the reality of

6:19its choices. It makes the choices for the settings as to whether we are anywhere near a surplus or whether we go into deficit. And okay, a little bit up here, a little bit down there, but when it's all down for the next 40 years, we're in a world of trouble. So of course, eagerly I was running through the pages of the intergenerational report looking for whatever the latest version of this was. Do you think there's a chance they were trying to present what is called statistical noise, because this was the version of the graph that existed in today's. No one can obviously easily see that scribble. So I'll take away the scribble and I'll show you what it actually looks like. It still looks like budget deficits for the next 40 years. So nice try, Jim, of course, whose doctorate is in the spin of the economy of poor heating, but the document still tells the story. The graph is still there to be seen. And if Australia is spending more money than it is taking in for the next

7:1940 years and we owe more than a trillion dollars, we're broke. Second point here, Australia is going to have fewer babies, which means less tax for the government. So how do they fill the tax hole? Well, more migration. If people are old enough to remember what a street directory is, then you will understand this metaphor. If not, think of it as your Google maps. This is both the street directory for where we're going and the receipt book of where we have been and all of it results in a bigger Australia as a result not of people having babies and the single biggest reason why people don't have babies in Australia is because it's too damn expensive. The blue at the bottom of that graph is the number of people that are having babies. See how that gets replaced by the green, which is migration. Governments don't want babies because of course babies cost money, not just for the citizen, but of course for the government too. You see, when you were born

8:20this child care, then there's primary school, then there's high school, then there's university or there's TAFE. So they want people who are over the age of 18 theoretically skilled, theoretically able to work from day one and therefore pay tax. So this is by design that the system works by just bringing more people in. We're still heading to 40 million people. They're saying today, well, it won't be as fast as it was in the past. No, that's the trajectory. Again, they haven't just put in a line saying what this reports is. They put in a whole bunch of other ones of, well, what we said three years ago, what we said six years ago, what we said nine years ago, the line is still clear. Up and up, up, up until you're past 40 to 45 million people. And again, you get there, not through babies, but you get there through migration. The third point about all of this is that people are living longer. Great. Awesome. All of us want

9:26to live forever. But of course, we can't. And the reality is is that retirement is in an around your mid 60s, theoretically, superannuation, pace for your retirement, right? No. It'll pay for a comfortable five, maybe seven, maybe 10 years depending on how you were able to play the system. But of course, the whole way that you're able to pay for your aged care either at home or in a facility is because you bought a house. You paid off a house and the house is worth a whole lot more than when you bought it. So you can sell the house and the money left over goes into your aged care. But of course, this government has made a series of choices in the last budget that are deliberately about breaking that nexus. So you're going to live longer, but you're going to run out of money. Now, if you're somebody who that won't affect in the next 10 years or 20 years, great. You've lived your life. You've worked damn hard to be able to pay your house off, to be able to

10:28one day sell your house to be able to pay for that aged care. But for the kids and for the grandkids, the picture is pretty damn bleak, which is why I say that the country is broke and broken. Because you have a scenario where mass immigration, constantly adding to every queue, there is nothing in the international report about how many new hospitals need to be built. There's no suggestion about how many new roads are going to be built. There's no suggestion about how many schools have to be built. Instead, debt forever, migration replaces babies because they pay tax from day one, not 18 years after. And despite the fact that you need more money for your retirement, they've made a decision to make your house to be sold for less meaning, you're going to struggle with your retirement. But of course, we get back to distraction politics. And Jim Charmers was very keen to, of course, blame everything on Donald Trump because he'll be around forever,

11:28right? No. Remember, he leaves office in 2029. We're talking about problems ago all the way through the 2030s, the 2040s, the 2050s, the 2060s. But don't worry, Jim had a lovely thing to distract the media today. Don't worry about the structural deficit. Don't worry about the lack of retirement. Don't worry about migration instead. I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I.I. And do you think there's a chance that that trick worked on the media? Did they talk about any of the three things that I just talked about? Or did they talk about, you know the answer? The treasurer's 40-year forecast points to superannuation gains and service sector growth, but acknowledges the rapid portion to AI will force significant workplace shifts. But artificial intelligence is cast as profound. And the biggest economic transformation of our lifetime.

12:31Now the Prime Minister of course is in the United States right now, and you know I don't talk about domestic models, Wallam overseas, unless of course I'm finding some way to bag one nation, but whatever, that rule doesn't apply. There was the absurdity of him hanging out with the Apple executives on a weekend where clearly no one's doing work at Apple Park on a Saturday, and just conveniently happened to turn out when they've got brand new phones and the flip phone coming out in the next couple of days, because there's no reason that Apple would want the free publicity, gladly given here by a Prime Minister who's apparently learning about parental controls that anyone would have been able to show him in his office, but nobody can film that, right? And now he's often New York where of course he's about to become a awarded global citizen, reminds me a little bit of when Wayne Swan was the world's best treasurer, who was working for him then? Oh that's right Jim Charmers. See, it pays to pay attention, that's why I'm glad you're here each and every night. And despite the fact that petrol is through the roof, I mentioned almost 200 bucks to fill 10-year-old car that runs on diesel, because you know 10 years ago, that was what you did, right? You bought the diesel car, because that'll end it'll end up working. Well no, of course petrol prices through the roof. Here's the past couple of weeks in Sydney when it comes to

13:38normal unleaded petrol, the same in Melbourne and the same in Brisbane, where it's now $2.40 a liter. It's close to over $3 for diesel right now, but nothing, nothing to see here. And again, because we've been around for a while, we remember what they promised, what they said, the each way elbow of it all. And I remind myself of a tweet. November 16, 2021. Derek and Scott Morrison has been to a petrol station lately, petrol prices are surging on his watch. He was complaining when it was $1.79. $1.79. Right now, $2.39 in Sydney. Right now, $2.32 in Melbourne, $2.31 right now in Brisbane. But you know, whatever, we can't hold them to look out for that. I'm overseas doing international stuff. I'm saving the world. I'm dealing with climate change. What about China? Don't worry about it. I'm fixing the world of social media. What about hang them by giving the Minister the power to get rid of the things that she thinks is harmful without checking with anyone else? No, nothing to see,

14:42nothing to see here. And of course, this government that claims to be all about cost of living, well, they're doing something about this. Oh, no, that's right. Nothing. Because they have to take $0.52 per liter of every liter of petrol that is purchased. No matter the price in Australia, right now. So blow me down with the feather. That supposedly last week was this horrible week for pulling hands at one nation, this from a podcast. That from a podcast. Did you hear what he said about what she said about the Prime Minister's mum? Well, guess what? The reality of people who are paying that much for petrol, they don't care. The latest news poll, and you've heard this all night, has shown that Labor is down the best part of 10 points in the past year in news poll. But let's go back to the election. Labor is down 7.6%. The coalition is down 12.8%. One nation's up 23%. The Greens are up almost a point. And the independent and others category is down four. One nation back as

15:46the number one most popular political party in the country confirmed we will find out or not tomorrow in the news 24 polls. Then Labor, then daylight, then the Libs, then the Greens, then others. So while the question was a little bit mean, I did enjoy it like everyone else did that the man who's about to be a globally awarded citizen is actually not running the joint that well for those of us who pay his wage. I'm seeing in New York almost at night you will receive an award for being a citizen. Don't you feel like a bit of a fraud accepting the support when at home you screwed up the response to the worst massacres in support of the polls you're taking later to one point shy do you feel like when you roll to and your net negative is the worst in the Scott Marcy? No. Now because of preferences there's still a chance that if there was an election he ends up falling

16:47to a minority so it's going from the 90s into the 70s and he can take his pick of a couple of Greens, couple of Teals. So the chance of a change of government sadly not there but he don't hit him in the right direction. Can we talk about the behaviour of footy fans over the weekend? Now I'm a fully card carrying bogan but I tell you where it stops and that's physically hurting other people or picking stuff up and throwing it at people. I don't know why people do this and I understand how passionate we can get and I understand how fired up we can get and I get how metaphorically you know I'm the throwing things at the telly but throwing stuff at the ref well that's a whole new game. Now yes, Warriors fans or Wars fans of course they should be known disappointed because they were expecting to make their way towards a grand final and I think many people were hoping that they'd win the comp because they've never won the comp but at Eden Park where they had their journey finish some of the reactions towards the referees was outrageous.

17:48You may be pissed off but you can't start getting physical. It was way worse in the AFL, Hawthorne of course lost their chance to make it to a grand final. They too blame the refs in all directions and things got really out of hand there. Of course they are lines on their way to another grand final and the Hawthorne coach was not very subtle about well not really disagreeing with the fans not the green with the fans who threw the stuff but not disagreeing with the fans who were angry enough to want to throw stuff. I mean the umpires got a very difficult job and how they performed in key moments will be reviewed. Ah, how they performed in key moments rather than know well that's the game that's the way it is. Well unsurprisingly there has been

18:48quite the pile on and I think rightly so about the coach and about his reaction here so he was on SCN this afternoon and said the umpires have gone an enormously difficult job are going watch kids play sport the way people treat the umpires is very important all the way through. We have to set a very high bar for what we expect in that area. I wouldn't call it a pattern of behaviour we need to make sure our umpires are respected and treated that way. Well of course hence why even when it doesn't go your way you can't turn around and say well you know they will review their decisions. So there is yet another grand final which will not involve a Melbourne team and that's fine it's a national component it's good to see it'll be freeo versus Brisbane. So could somebody please explain to me how the Victorian government justifies a public holiday on Friday presumably for everyone to turn up to cheer on their local team in the AFL parade the grand final parade which happens the day before the game on Saturday. I'm not sure how that's going to go. So you just get a public holiday even though no Victorian teams are in the grand final of course and of course nobody

19:54will promise to change it why because you know election November Nicholas Reese is the Melbourne Lord Mayor I ask him about it in a couple minutes time along with MacHanavan. Now as you know plenty of hand-minging when Paul Enhancin boots out members of the Australian media from press conferences now we know that the reason this happens for the ABC is because the ABC publicly named A staffer from one nation who was low level not a decision maker but because they work for one nation let's effectively dox them. That's why the ABC is constantly banned from one nation events. They've also decided to ban the Guardian because of course the Guardian does nothing other than try to do as much dirt as they possibly can on Paul Enhancin. Well then there's the situation that's happening in the United States that is way worse than what is playing out here in Australia because the government is running out of the White House. Donald Trump of course is the president and they literally have written into their Bill of Rights the freedom of the press. So a whole collection

20:57from MS now the former MSNBC CNN Politico which is sort of insider Washington very lefty but still inside Washington media organisation and the Associated Press have all been banned not allowed to walk onto the grounds of the White House. Now I do think part of the theory here may well have been that all of the press then turn around and they also decide well that's it if you know tree one like that you know tree like all like that so we're all going out in solidarity and we think we all know what the Trumps would do which is lock the door behind them and probably reopen the swimming pool which is what the press room used to be he doesn't know how to renovate but to show how the left has been reacting to it let's go to the most reasonable voice we could find. And by that I'm taking the piss he's Rachel Maddow reacting of course the hard-lift cable TV host in the US. What he's doing is just blatantly, plainly on its face illegal it'll be struck down by the courts and then we'll have to have a big fate about him obeying the court order that inevitably

22:00tells him to let our reporters back in. And I love it let's go over here to fall. I love the NFL National Football League the New York Jets is my team they're terrible they're one and one side of the season I'm in a tipping-combo roommates it's gone well it's gone well. And I love the National Football League I know it's not the biggest for everyone but we certainly know they could pack out the MCG so there's plenty of NFL fans in Australia but even if you don't like the NFL what about what happened in the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Philadelphia Eagles they were playing today and it was hot and I mean damn hot and for some stupid reason they still play this game on fake turf so the blasting sun meant 69.4 degrees was the surface temperature of the field and this game was played in the one o'clock zone it should have been played in the four o'clock zone to drop the temperature unsurprisingly one of the players from the winning team well just started dropping swear words why because it was hot it was damn hot

23:06it was hot and everybody was hot you know and like I said I didn't play a snap and I had to get an av 69 degrees Celsius okay by the way just that's not the Fahrenheit to 60 six degrees sorry 69 degrees that is crazy that by the way is the temperature inside a V8 supercar when they're running around in bathas so for those who don't think motorsport is a sport how do you feel seeing in front of something that's heading towards concrete at 200 kilometers an hour at 70 degrees inside shout out to the non-motor sport fans for those that are Christmas right right away towards bathas please join us this weekend for our town at bathas thanks the good people of Harvey Norman it is pretty simple it is our town at news 24.com that are you our town at news 24.com that are you all right quick break let's get straight into it right now lots that have ate lots that have discussed including you know those cameras that had a link back to China that meant they had to be banned in all government buildings well guess which type of car uses the same cameras or in a sec here I'll pour my real life thanks for joining us this Monday night

24:11lots to talk about tonight this is Matt Rogers from Los Cultures thus with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang this is Bowen Yang from Los Cultures to Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang okay we've been talking about cubie male for a minute now and wow the feedback we're getting I mean so many of y'all love this stuff you're stopping us in the street going I love cubie and if you're thinking wait what is cubie uh do you not have the internet it's the OG Japanese mayonnaise the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle once you know what you start seeing it everywhere people ask what makes it different from basic mayo will the answer egg yolks you pee is made with egg yolks only giving it this incredibly rich umami flavor that elevates everything burgers fries sandwiches chicken noodles chefs use it restaurants use it people who really love food and flavor use it whatever you're eating cubie it so if you haven't tried cubie yet find the bottle with the red cap and see what everyone's

25:14talking about you'll understand cubie the original Japanese mayonnaise if your dog treats dinner like it needs a better chef check this out sundays for dogs is the food that gets tails wagging at meal time sundays for dogs combines real meat with a gentle air drying process that locks in flavor and nutrition it looks like food not kibble in an independent taste test all 39 dogs sundays chicken recipe to a premium kibble make the switch today at sundaysfordogs.com and get 30% off your first order treat your best friend right and make it sundays for dogs earn your farm d and as little as 33 months with west coast universities hybrid program no bachelor's degree required eligible transfer credits may be accepted west coast university as real as it gets visit west coast university dot edu wc you cannot guarantee employment my mom just texted me and said too much chest here so i apologize to those that were thrown off by the 70s look but you know why not a little bit winter a little bit summer sort of beginning the turn through spring i'm glad she's

26:16paying attention as always loving mom all right to do it yes now two bikes will always love their mums not other than the great mat can of n of course Nicholas Reese both do it yes now because they're going to agree on everything so Matt what a surprise that the government that's off playing games around the world as petri prices go through the roof here at home let alone get ready for two more interest rate rises is having the worst run they've had since gillard was in charge well look at maybe it is a surprise to the labor government because all i've hear in camber from labor ministers is how great things are uh we can speech up to speech in the parliament about how people have never had it better effectively uh jdp growth is up uh unemployment is low and people think uh or the labor party think people have it fantastic right now now obviously that's not the lived experience of people right now because what the labor party doesn't say is that well jdp's up it's only going up because it's been artificially primed up with massive migration numbers on a per person basis of course under this government so incomes have been going down likewise the

27:20government likes to speak the fact that wage growth has been high they never mentioned the uh thing underlying that that inflation has been very very high and did it's been higher uh than wages have gone up over the life of this government so your real wage the actual things your money can buy has gone down uh in the term of this government so i'm not sure maybe it is a shock to them or maybe they know it's spin uh and they don't know any different but all i do know is when you constantly tell people it's sunny outside and they open the door and walk outside and actually it's pouring rain and it's not very nice uh they're going to get pretty angry with you pretty soon yeah i mean Nicholas the truth here is that you know i would have thought that say there would have been a bit more of an explosion in the vote for the Greens but it is worth noting that they are on where they were at the election yes we know about one nation and the coalition uh side of things right you're not a labor man anymore but still um at some point they can't just believe this idea that look the primary vote can be two but all the preferences will get us there because eventually they'll

28:23fall to a position where in some uh contests it's not going to be two pp between them and the coalition it's going to end up being uh one nation versus the coalition meaning some labor seeds and we're going to see that in victoria will be gone early in the night because they can't get to the final two yeah well i mean that is the political calculation that hardheeds in victoria are looking at very closely with the november state election looming here in victoria look i should probably do a mere culper off the top here and disclose that i was of course working for a labor government in canberra the last time news poll had labor down around 27 then back when i think we all know but thank you for reminding us that you were in the brainstress that took them right down into this ditch well we went lower actually 26% which was 13 years ago which makes me feel very old i've got to say so having lived through news poll numbers for labor even lower than what we're seeing here today i do have to say it does feel a little bit different this time around let's not

29:29forget that anthony albanese absolutely smashed last year's election in 2025 and it was the second election that he had won so he's a proven election winner for labor and we are still you know two years at least away from an election we're not going to face go to the polls till 2028 so this government has a long way to go yet which was very different to the situation we're in back there in 2012 with julia that said i do think there are plenty of warning signs there and plenty of things that albanese simply paying attention to like if we have another two interest rate rises before christmas petrol prices don't come off then yeah i think you're going to have to see some more action from this labor government around cost of living i do think angus tailors move in the last week on petrol was one of the best things he's done since he became leader and yeah a labor

30:30government has always got to stay very close to cost of living pressures family budgets and there under a lot of pressure at the moment yes i hanging out learning parental features at apple or heading off to the u.n. not exactly the priority when things are here at home by the way credit to you too mad obviously for being the deputy leader of all the co-leader of the coalition right and this idea right so when global oil prices get to a hundred dollars a barrel and we're getting very close there that is when there would be the automatic tax drop under a coalition government look that's right Paul we are actually there the formal rule where establishing is that if the Brent price for crude oil is over a hundred dollars a barrel averaging over two weeks then we trigger this support so that has occurred in the last fortnight in the last five years it's only occurred two other times that would be earlier this year when the war kicked off in Iran and back in 2022 when the Ukraine war kicked off both in both of those times the government stepped in

31:34and provided a 50% discount on the fuel excise and so it just makes sense i think we establish this rules so people know people know we've got your back and so we don't have to go through these parlor games every month or two about whether it should happen or not we just set a rule that when you get diesel prices now and i have seen it at three dollars or above at some service stations it'll be below that where i am here but still very very high when prices are at those sort of levels then you provide some automatic relief to people because it's just too tough especially for families who are struggling and can't scream upon on petrol we don't want them screaming on groceries or other essentials and so there's some flex here for the government to do that and we don't we don't have a rule where it comes off when it averages below that level over an eight week period or two months and so you see that sort of coming on and off just like it has with the political decisions we've had in the past and so look we think it's sensible for the government to do this now they should do this now soon rather than better now get it on with it and provide some relief to families yeah bring it on down in one dollar one or a dollar two right now so yeah we're

32:37willing to really pass that threshold sorry Nick oh look just one other thing for the electoral nerds still with us the fact that news polls today and the major party vote down at 46% that is absolutely extraordinary to put this in perspective for people you know at the last year's federal election the major party vote Labour Liberal was at 66% so that is off 20% in over a year and I think that might be its lowest point ever since news poll started now the real interesting here is if you look back across Australian political history when the major party vote drops to those sort of levels it usually is the harbinger of great instability and major change in Australian politics so that is a very interesting number there today yet another reason why laser like focus about to Victoria what it happens and then of course we move to New South Wales then of course we see what happens well sooner rather than later maybe when it comes to the federal

33:39election because of course there's deficits for the next 40 years but who cares hey hey hey hey hey hey hey today now also inside that intergenerational report and again it was grim reading right because we always talk about our government doesn't focus enough on the long this is the long term picture and the long term picture shows that the only way that Australia grows its tax base is by bringing in people who start paying tax from day one rather than people who are born and cost the system money all the way until they are 18 so one of the reasons why people are well stating there's lots of different reasons why people are saying they're not having kids but apart from all the ideological or the climate change it's about how expensive things are so Matt how do we deal with this because again it's not about baby bonuses it's about the ongoing cost and about people knowing that this is a decision which is not about this summer next summer it's one that goes on of course for 20 and increasingly 30 years with their under your roof well last time we did see an increase in the fertility weren't Australia was in the 2000s where the Howard

34:44government did provide substantial support for families but mainly through the family tax benefit system is a lot of focus and attention given to the baby bonus but the more substantive support was through the generic system of family tax benefits now when Kevin Rudd was elected that was first a clawed back and at medley joe hockey did some more when we were trying to balance the budget and look we've got a much lower percentage of our national income going to support families now and so i don't think it's surprising to see the birth rate fall alongside that and we're working very hard to see what we can do with the stricter financial times we have compared to the early 2000s to support families again i think it should be focused on through the tax system supporting people who work and pay tax and helping them out too because it is very very expensive particularly in those early years of a newborn's life especially when a lot of parents like to spend some time out of the workforce to look after their newborn children and when you can have two or three kids it adds up it's

35:47many many years potentially out of that high income lifestyle you might be used to so we're we're going to have more to sell this because i think it is a national priority to lift our birth rate at current levels and this report prediction will go lower than current levels at current levels even in a hundred years or so there'll just be a third the size of our population descended from those alive today so we'll be down about 11 million people descended from those alive today at this birth rate it it happens very very fast and again i mean let's be clear here i'm talking about instant Aussies from lots of different backgrounds fine and fair enough from parents and grandparents but i love the idea of more instant Aussies the idea of fewer in fact can we show that intergenerational report graphic that shows the difference between the migration and the birth rate right we see the blue at the bottom of that which is the natural birth rate just essentially disappearing meaning the population growth which is going to be another 10 million people apparently between 11 million between now and the 2060s where they're still running a budget deficit every year of those so they're not even replacing and not even able to find ways to get

36:49the revenue the spending keeps going up and essentially the system wants the ready-made taxpayer rather than the inconvenient ones to take 18 years to get there Nicholas i get it it's three blokes talking on telly but last time i checked until they've worked out the science they still need us to be involved in the process at some point for a moment but still it matters not just that's what i call we do we do have a we still have a lot of it's a lot of work so you know that's game please to say that the men of Australia still have a role to play in the birth rate and long may it remain so i mean look matt makes some interesting points there about trying to lift the birth rate in Australia and good luck him and the nationals knock yourselves out 100% supporter but there is a global trend happening here like go to italy go to england the birth rate is falling go to china go to japan the birth rate is falling this is a global phenomenon and it's to do with technological advancement costs of living and a whole bunch of very big

37:54factors family planning women you know and families deciding not to have the same number of children this is a big trend for Australia i mean one of the things that numbers are jumping out to meet those you know still forecasting a population growth rate of 1.5 percent that that's a blistering growth rate compared to the rest of the world and the truth is we go in the same direction as the rest world we're going to see that drop away quite simply and that has profound effects for our future economy future quality of life i here tonight do not have all the answers to that but that is the big story out of today all right matt let's talk about crocodiles because people love talking crocodiles and they know how much that you love rockhampton and we know that rock is going to be an Olympic city in 2032 along with so many other in regional queens and of course the main game being in Brisbane but you want an apology from the BBC what have they done and how they misrepresented crocs in fact let's show that well Paul baby sorry this is the BBC roll that tape and then here we go

38:55a river home to 500 crocodiles has been chosen as an Olympic rowing venue the Fitzroy River in Rockhampton Queensland has been given the okay to host the Olympic and Paralympic rowing and canoeing events at the 2032 Brisbane games in Australia there's been lots of opposition with concerns over flood risk strong currents and of course the crocodiles which can grow to up to six meters long well yes there should be an apology the idea that there are just crocs absolutely everywhere I know it's great for sell and t shirts but come on I'm with you national apology bring them for a booting like they wanted Bart Simpson to come exactly right Paul well one particular error there in that video the video that the BBC showed I suppose they thought they had us when the footage when they googled it came from the Fitzroy River just a bit of a problem for them there were two Fitzroy rivers in Australia and they've chosen a Fitzroy River near a place called King Sound in Western Australia I didn't think the crocs looked like ours it didn't look like our river and so

40:00when I when I looked at it and saw that they were just a little bit off the BBC there were three and a half thousand kilometres of that's how far away the Fitzroy River is in W.A. competed the Fitzroy River here where we've just had the State School rowing championships I've just been there last three days my son competed in it not a croc well the only crocs inside Paul with those on your feet and now good good on the kids everyone's adopted the crocs and they've all gotten flightable crocs on their tents and everyone loves it everyone's talking about rowing so it's a great thing it was a great event and the Olympics is going to look fantastic up here please tell me Senator that you don't have an appara crocs and you wear socks with them as well though I just I just got a photo with my crocs on with a Curie Males afternoon Paul I'm sorry I just jump in there very many when you're doing rowing and things like that near river there so you do see quite a few pairs of no socks and socks in my part of the world no sorry you love those in your socks but but we're on the same page on this one Matt because

41:00so we we had the big NFL game here in Melbourne last week at the biggest influx of Americans since the World War II in the city it was amazing but I did find myself explaining to Americans that no there aren't as spiders it was biggest you're head about to drop out of the trees yeah look we don't have crocodiles on the streets here in Melbourne and drop it you know 30 years of advertising come and visit Australia with crocodiles and all these big crazy creatures have just kind of made the world think that we're very very dangerous places I'll give you the tip when I was in the US I would sort of for the first couple of days I'd do that and then for the rest of us oh yeah absolutely mate oh yeah whatever we're very tough I'm not fat I'm just gonna get a skin weather worst the worst offenders at this correct now Lord Mayor of Melbourne again well done on that NFL thing I thought that was awesome right why is this the public holiday when there's no Victorian teams in the grand final this I know with some little sort of pre-election nonsense fine have another public holiday but do it on a Monday do it about something else but come on what do you

42:02think about this oh yes now this is an issue raging in Melbourne this week so we have the public holiday on Friday which is grand final eve it's in a bad it's it's got to be coming up seven or eight years now at least it has become very popular but the debate has fired up again because a lot of the industry business groups are saying now that there's two interstate teams playing which would cancel the public holiday from a Melbourne perspective city of Melbourne perspective it's actually a great day we have more people in the in the central city on the Friday before grand final and we'd have on an ordinary Friday because everybody comes in today because all the work from home blood just turn up to be they finally turn up in the city world and they don't have the work I mean look you might be against people having fun Paul but we love it and that AFL grand final eve public holiday has turned out to be an absolute ripper of all the furbling we've done of each other on this show to claim my manty fun I've heard it all thank you senator thank you

43:04if you're a mr mayor do appreciate it we'll talk to you again very soon all right quick break let's get back into this intergenerational report it is grim but it's important reading right it is the road map and it is the receipt book and it is nothing but again the replacement of the population with migration but what about 40 years of budget deficits Timberlson of course wants to be the treasure he'd have to deal with this how would he next this is Matt Rogers from Lost Culture East us with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang this is Bowen Yang from Lost Culture East us with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang okay we've been talking about Cupid male for a minute now bow and wow the feedback we're getting I mean so many of y'all love this stuff you're stopping us in the street going I love Cupid and if you're thinking wait what is Cupid uh do you not have the internet it's the OG Japanese mayonnaise the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle once you know what you start seeing it everywhere people ask what makes it different from basic mayo will the answer egg yolks

44:05Cupid is made with egg yolks only giving it this incredibly rich umami flavor that elevates everything burgers fries sandwiches chicken noodles chefs use it restaurants use it people who really love food and flavor use it whatever you're eating Cupid so if you haven't tried Cupid yet find the bottle with the red cap and see what everyone's talking about you'll understand Cupid the original Japanese mayonnaise the theme of the night tonight has been the intergenerational report yes I know is it exciting but the reality is is that it is both the street directory and the receipt book when it comes to mass migration it's telling us that is the trajectory and financially why we have to get there Tim Wilson is the shadow treasurer at some point it'll be his job to have to deal with the Australian economy and its future and he joins us now from beautiful Melbourne love you to see it Tim what concerns you most about some of the stuff that's buried deep deep inside this today that the treasurer wasn't pointing at well the objective of the

45:10intergenerational report has always been to set the nation up so that we don't hand a nation on to future generations well I'll end up being poorer and carrying the cost of the cost of today and instead what it's projected out is 40 years of deficits into the future but even more distressingly if you actually look at the productivity assumptions which are the basis of economic growth in the economy they've cooked the books they've used a very rosy assessment which isn't consistent with the reserve bank and if we use the reserve bank's numbers we would basically have a doubling of public debt and nearly a doubling of the liability that Australians will take into the future on frankly people who are less likely to be able to afford it. Now I bear with me here but I want people to think about Australia as if it was a pub right now obviously you can take the kids to a pub but they can't walk up and buy anything from the bar but you know who can an 18-year-old and nobody's born an 18-year-old but mass migration means that when they come to the country

46:14as long as they're over the age of 18 they're an immediate taxpayer this is part of what I point out to be one of the many structural things that are inside this document right that are telling us what the path is and that for us to work and not even to make a profit to make a loss every year for the next 40 years but we can't wait for people to have children to go through early childhood to go through school to go through high school we need to according to this document continue at a start at 18 level what does that say about the type of society that they want to build because we all understand migration we understand it's history and it's necessary future but to me it screams that the government doesn't want kids they want 18-year-olds because they pay tax from day one well the problem is the economic model that the government is engaging with where the only way they can address the tax-based problem is to continue to pump people in it's made it's unsustainable and

47:15it's been unsustainable frankly for a while what we actually need to do is have more Australians working we need more Australians being financially independent so their taxpayers so they're also not dependent on the system but we also need people to move through stages of life in a graduated way we need them to save invest by their own home so they can retire with confidence instead the only answer we have at the moment is for the government to pump more people in that's having an inflation re-effect is putting more demand on the cost of housing and particularly rents and it's actually many we're not setting ourselves up for a stable and confident future and in fact even under these the intergenerational report we've got essentially the highest share of income tax that we've ever had and it's baked in pretty much into the future so we're not even getting lower income taxes as the trade-off until we pay back government spending we're not going to see a change because we have too many people dependent on government yeah there's also an insight into the future again over the next 40

48:18years is okay people's retirement it happens around sort of your mid to late 60s but then life expectancy is going to go deep into the 80s for men and touched 90 for women so there's a really serious question here that again I'm not asking you to answer right now but do you see it as a potential question as well is there's a long distance between your mid 60s little on your mid 70s little on your mid 80s little on 90 about how people are going to pay for their retirement because previous generations have been able to buy house that's worth way more that eventually financial complaint that money pays for the back nine if you are buying a house that either slowly grows and doesn't make that improvement or you never actually pay it off what the hell are millions of people going to do from their mid 60s we saw a report that was released last week from Vanguard which showed a dramatic increase and this isn't today's intergenerational report as well a massive increase

49:18the number of people who are going towards retirement and they've got a large super balance but haven't paid off the house logically what's the first thing they do they take their super balance and they pay off their house and then become dependent on the pension this is why prioritising super over homeownership doesn't make any logical economic sense but more of the point we also need to encourage and or at least allow older Australians if they want to work longer to be able to work longer which is why if you are getting the pension we should be providing more flexibility for people to continue to work some people want to some people won't need to that's their choice too but as you say there's a big gap between your early 60s or in your mid 60s and when you get into your 80s or even early 90s no one's going to be working into their late 80s or 90s but if you want to work longer you want to defer the time you draw down from your super well frankly if you just want to stay economically active because you enjoy the social connection we should provide the flexibility

50:19to do so what do you think is the sneaky bit of politics inside the document because again just the way you know they can decide to turn up the dials in the 2030s and turn down the dials in the 2040s to help us get where we're going but I was interested in the way they were presenting things I mentioned a bit earlier in the show sort of what was a nice clear graph about deficits for the next 40 years now just looks like sort of visual vomit hoping that no one will notice but were there things inside this where you just sort of were taking a mental note going oh okay they're probably going to start heading in this direction to start paying for things could you notice anything the the clearest thing was the gap between the reserve what the number reserve bank users for productivity which is 0.7% and the number that they're using this report which is 1.2 now that might not sound like that bigger deal but every year it continues to compound and when you reflect it in the volume of public debt that we're going to have into the future it essentially doubles

51:24the public debt out to the 2060 so Australians won't just have more debt they'll also be of course paying higher taxes because today's debt is tomorrow's taxes and it's the compounding effect because they won't fix their spending addiction their inflation addiction and that's all going to be pushed on to future generations 100% thank you very much Tim do a pretty shout out we'll talk to you again very soon thanks for having me good man Tim Wilson plenty more on that report but next a choice between two labor fools and a green which one will I pick this is Matt Rogers from Lost Culture East us with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang this is Bowen Yang from Lost Culture East us with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang okay we've been talking about Cupid male for a minute now bow and wow the feedback we're getting I mean so many of y'all love this stuff you're stopping us in the street going I love Cupid and if you're thinking wait what is Cupid uh do you not have the internet it's the OG Japanese mayonnaise

52:27the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle once you know what you start seeing it everywhere people ask what makes it different from basic mayo well the answer egg yolks Cupid is made with egg yolks only giving it this incredibly rich umami flavor that elevates everything burgers fries sandwiches chicken noodles chefs use it restaurants use it people who really love food and flavor use it whatever you're eating Cupid hit so if you haven't tried Cupid find the bottle with the red cap and see what everyone's talking about you'll understand Cupid the original Japanese mayonnaise your path to pharmacy can be closer than you think west coast universities hybrid doctor of pharmacy program can be completed in as little as 33 months and no bachelor's degree is required to apply if you've started pharmacy coursework elsewhere wcu may accept eligible transfer credits to help students keep moving forward learn online train hands on at our Center for Graduate Studies in Los Angeles and prepare for real world pharmacy practice west coast university as real as it gets visit west coast university dot edu

53:33wcu cannot guarantee employment we're looking for silly politicians doing silly things on social media let's go with the green nick maquim your hair as forget go work go broke it's go work it dumps we are so back while you were working say no more