NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet: Best Underdog Props, Injury Updates & DraftKings Strategy

0:00So here's the giveaway this week, $1,000 to anyone who drops a comment in the comment section and gives me their favorite prop of the week and that prop wins. Reminder to smash the like and sub to the channel while you're here as well. This works on Apple, this works on Spotify, wherever you're consuming this product. Here's the official eight play for us this week coming up first. Your favorite play of the week, Blicco, Colonel, take higher than 18 and a half longest reception. On Dalton Shultz, ladder down, lower than three and a half receptions has not cleared this total with Nico Collins in the game. If you could be percent another one of yours higher than two and a half rushing attempts, Marvin Mim, Mim Z, higher than 24 and a half receiving yards, laddered up, potentially replacing Pat Bryant's route tree in this game. We have a ladder situation on our hand, Keaton Mitchell higher than two and a half targets on the other side of Apple, Breawe and Alan higher than 16 and a half rushing attempts, Di Mario Douglas higher than 24 and a half receiving yards. In my favor to the week, Elvin Camara lower than 10 and a half longest rush.

1:03So it's what changed of percent rushing attempts changed on us when I went to go enter. I didn't do anything. It was something. Yeah, you wasn't my fault. I know you did. I really didn't. I genuinely did not. Chikoby, percent, what's he at now? Oh, it's, she was up now. Look at that. Look at that. It went from 1.07 to 1.06. I can't believe they went slightly down. That's okay. We'll take that. $75 pays 11,691 in 74 cents. When this wins and you've done all the things that I've asked and I'll put this tail link down in the description. If you just want to play with us as well, then you'll get a thousand bucks. If I draw you out of the person with the correct prop and commented in the comment section and extra points. If you like, subscribe, subscribe to the audio podcast as well. At Mayo, Experiode. Welcome to the Pat Mayo Experience week five NFL cheat sheet full injury report, fantasy

2:06rankings, props plus what to do on draft kings. Now that we have brand new injury information, you can always hit the time codes and jump around. If you're looking for the circuit pool picks, that's its own show is released on Thursday. I did that with Adam Pranaka. You can go check that out on the pod feed or up on YouTube right now. Remember to smash the like, remember to sub if you want to get into that thousand dollar giveaway as I explained. Drop a prop in the comment section if it wins and we win our eight banger on underdog code mail and underdog by the way. Then one of you lucky winners will get a thousand dollars directly from me. So fingers crossed, we're looking good this week feeling good about our prospects and I will have a boosted parlay for props this week at cool bet calm your in can the outside Ontario or Alberta want to get in on some action with a PME boost very hit two of them in five or four weeks. This will be week five fit to them in four weeks. So far 14 to one and a five and a half to one thinking this week will probably be right around six to one hit the description. Get your bonus go play it up at cool bet calm Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

3:10All right. So for the injury, say quon barkley is out for the London game as is tank big speed who's out for the season that leaves the white say quon will ship leaves not in a great spot against a very good. Jags defense, but if we're just thinking about volume enough has now opened up that you may have been able to scoop by the remanual Wilson or Mike Washington off the wave or wire hell I had to play Rochon Johnson in a league this week is there were no options available with the nung guy out. So. Shipley's not a terrible option here. He's like running back I think 17 or 18 for me. And that's just a volume play that hopefully picks up some catches. Maybe he sneaks into the end zone not expecting 150 yards crazier things have happened. I suppose against this Jacksonville defense, but the volume play should be there but with as anemic as the Eagles defense is looked so for offenses look so far this year. You don't expect high upside, but as a filler play not a terrible option. As I just mentioned, but none guy is out deundry swift is going to be like 50% on an on draft. Kings he is an absolute must start. He is questionable for the week looking like he's going to play if not it would be Rochon

4:13Johnson. So if you do want to get out ahead of it is something crazy happens that would be the move. Breeze Hall is out for the jets with this quad injury fire up all the braille and Allen you got in a bad weather game against Cleveland Zach Charbonne is out in George Hollani has happened place on the injury report as well. He's expected to play, but he's already banged up and in the backup situation with his knees and rib problem. So far so a manual Wilson gets the boost up in the rankings this week against a 49ers team that is tough to run on obviously, but this could just be a pure volume play again you give Wilson 80% of the snap share, especially if it's a close game or behind those receptions pile up. You got yourself a potential RB one on your hands. Chris Brooks is out for the green Bay Packers not sure whether it's going to be Johnson or Lloyd that is starting it probably doesn't matter either way probably don't want to play these guys even in a good matchup, but the Packers have no offensive line. So they're probably not going to run it on its touchdown or bust likely for these guys where shot white is expected in for the Washington commanders.

5:14So you throw him in with your Corey Kroski merit and the returning Austin Ecler as we saw last week and you probably don't want to play any of these guys. White's probably the best of the bunch of the shoulders. Okay, but I can't confirm whether it is or not whether he's playing at 100% honestly Ecler might be the best way if he's still going to be their past catching option. White has dominated so far when healthy near the goal line and it's been to Corey Kroski merit between the 20s thus rendering all these guys rather useless even with the return of jail and Daniels this week. Ash and Gentie is questionable. He has been downgraded every single day of the week. He had this ankle injury and now he has a foot injury did not practice on Friday. So good chance he's not going to play and makes Mike Washington. Harvey won for the week. He's going to trend towards 50 to 60% on draft kings at his $4,200 price point. If Gentie doesn't go against the Patriots so you might get a free guy to go pick up off the waiver wire. It's not as of this recording. It is not official that Gentie is out is just looking that way for the moment.

6:14Obviously things can change. I'm going to release my newsletter on Saturday evening. So hopefully we know between now and then and it'll be updated in there on the injury report or and if there's a something being said on Sunday morning during that London game we get that information I will update the cheat sheet again. So Mayo media on sub stack is where you can find it or there's a direct link in the description. It's completely free to join and to go look at so please go sub to that right now and don't miss out on anything. Ramondri Stevenson is expected in. So he's back in the sweat with Trevian Henderson Alvin Camara in his back is questionable to play. He's probably going to play and you can bet on his lower of longest. Rush of 10 and a half yards with hits like every single week. So go do that. Rico Dattle mate or may not play. He's a game time decision. If he doesn't play all the jail and Warren in the world you would want if he does play some of the jail and Warren probably none of the Rico Dattle but it's going to be far more of a split in that situation. Cam Skataboo has a shoulder injury. He's probably going to play jail and right with his foot injury is probably going to back

7:15up all he Gordon this week as well. Kyle use check probably not going to play for the San Francisco 49ers against the Seattle Seahawks but that's not official as of this recording. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been traded to whom that is not known as of yet of this recording. It looks like Houston but it's starting to look like he's that guy in your fantasy league that accepted your trade but never hit except in the back end. So he's actually just shopping your offer now around to other people to get a better offer feels like that's what they're doing with Marvin Harrison either way he has been ruled out for Arizona so he's no longer a part of that game. This is the big game stack on draft Kings where everyone wants to go to this week. Blickel and I reassess the situation with some of the new information we have to rebuild those lineups of what is going to be the common lineup that people are going to play and how you can pivot off of that and use the different pieces of the game I boosted up Kendrick Born in the wide receiver rankings this week. Michael Pittman is out for the Pittsburgh Steelers indefinitely at that to probably won't

8:16see him to week 10 week 11. He gets some Roman Wilson you get fake geo Bernard or wherever the hell that guy's name is playing receiver running more snaps for the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Colts this week at home. Roman Wilson is clearly the play although it doesn't turn out to be him not going to be super stunned Devonta Smith is out for the London game so same guys that were rolling with last week plus Dallas got it more on that in a second. Stefan Diggs is out with a hamstring injury for the commanders although now it's looking like Terry McClure and might be back in still has this hamstring injury. He is officially a game time decision if it's not him you're getting a lot of Antonio Williams you're getting some diameter Brown you're getting some trail and Berks in your life what's not to like about Washington Caleb Douglas is out for the Miami dolphins don't play him play Malik Washington instead Quentin Johnston is out for the Chargers with the chest injury looking like lad McConkey is not going to play either which means it's a lot of tray Harris which means bad for the Chargers offense I get the people are going to want to play tray Harris and it's not a terrible it's a really good situation if nothing

9:18else this week against Denver because they're down both of their top corners but he's just not that good and as a focal point of an offense in the receiving game it's not great you probably do better you might not have better because you could probably do better than tray Harris is what I'm telling you 80 Mitchell out for the jets great I don't think you want to play it was it Xavier Williams is that the guy 18 the guy who's the muffs all the punts and the super fast and they try to get him into space he's a terrible receiver anyway jets offense is going to be pretty consolidated around Garib Wilson Braille and Alan and Mason Taylor is returning this week so you get Mason Taylor and Cedeek running routes you probably don't want any of these other receiving options Mac Collins is out for the Patriots he obviously joins AJ Brown in that regard and it's going to be Demario Douglas time you might get some more chism in your life Kyle Williams down the field not looking good in that receiving game it would be Douglas and Hunter Henry would be the two that I would want as plays in general for this game outside of that the other guys are absolute

10:19long shots in deeper leagues Williams at least is going to have a high eight out he might run five routes in the entire game but they'll probably all be nine routes and if he gets open they will throw it to him this I'm pretty sure of Drake may enjoy himself doing that the other side of the ball Jalen Nailer is out with a concussion for the Las Vegas Raiders Darius Slayton is not going to play for the Indianapolis Colts they've upgraded Nick Westbrook Ikeena to the active roster Ken Allen is expected to be back for this game as well Jamar chase and T Higgins are now questionable to play in this game they both practice and full on Friday chase has not cleared concussion protocol as of yet so everyone's favorite pick up of the week Myers is probably going to get relegated back to Bench duty if both these guys play and when we went through all the tinsley talk on the Friday show for draftings but look like these guys were going to be out yeah you don't want any part of that anymore just in Jefferson is questionable to play it looks like he is going to play for the Minnesota Vikings which is bad news for TJ Hawkinson who seemingly only does things when Jefferson isn't on the field I'm keeping an eye during the bi weeks on Rishi Rice

11:22and Jalen cocker through their injuries but it looks like they well that I'm guessing cocker will probably probably be back next week with the quad injury it's a hamstring for a she rice so I mean that could end up being the Merven Harrison team for all we know as of right now you might know when you're watching this because you're from the future when you're watching this I'm not from the future as you can tell by my betting track record I am definitely not from the future Pat Bryant has been placed on injured reserve with his ankle injury when Blicconi speak a little bit later we love mimsey going down the field probably he's a candidate for zero fantasy points he is also a candidate for like 20 fantasy points in the place of Pat Bryant Lil and Jordan Humphrey has been activated in that spot for the Denver receiving core Jalen lanes out for the season for the Washington commanders as well as mentioned before tight end Mason Taylor is back with his thumb injury Dallas Goddard is now actually leaning in for the Philadelphia Eagles over in London to take that spot back that's ahead of schedule great news if you love Dallas Goddard I myself not a fan

12:24not a huge fan of that offense you want to give a running back 20 carries I can get on board with that is like a low end running back to it's probably touchdown or bust for Goddard he should be a focal point of this offense over wicks and over lemon especially in the red zone but this Jags knees been pretty good forget to the red zone maybe we'll see Charlie Kohler and his arm injury is questionable for the chargers Colby Parkinson is questionable for Monday night football for the Rams at quarterback it's pretty easy Jalen Daniels is back he is starting with his elbow injury for the Washington commanders is he gonna run a ton this I don't know probably not honestly legit it scrubs at a banged up Terry McClure into throw to so that's not exciting Lamar Jackson is out for the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night football against the Falcons new Puntley is gonna be starting Baker may feel obviously missed Thursday night football didn't matter they picked up the first one of the season with Jalen Daniels at quarterback and Caleb will Caleb Williams is expected out that Badge and Spent announced as the starter but now later in the week it's like oh maybe Caleb Williams is gonna play Ben Johnson just loves doing this he loves

13:26telling you who's not going to be playing quarterback for his team and making guys prep for everything I don't think Caleb Williams is playing that seems kind of crazy to me so expect Badge and under center for Chicago in the Mike Dickeball RIP passed away this week against the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay coming up Blickel and I will be making our eight banger underdog parlay to see if we can win over $10,000 and give a thousand dollars away to one of you plus breaking down more of the drafting slate so please stay tuned we've been doing a bunch of upgrades around the house over the past year completely renovated the entire first floor so everything's different now the stuff doesn't match anymore and you don't always need a massive renovation to make a room feel completely different but when the stuff doesn't fit right it's a bad look so we picked up a brand new dining table and chairs from Wayfair and it made a real difference that's what I like about Wayfair they got thousands of options for basically every room every style and every budget and you can

14:27actually see what you're getting customer photos filters and more than 20 million verified five star reviews helping you figure out what's going to work in your space before you actually order find pieces made for real life and get even more value with Wayfair rewards join Wayfair rewards today to get 5% back on every purchase head to wayfair.com to shop all things home that's w-a-y-f-a-i-r.com Wayfair every style every home it's time to talk props and draft kings but first props on underdog code mail on underdog by the way five dollar pick a mentor your first five dollar pick a mentor when you use code mail will instantly get you a hundred bucks to use in your account so take advantage of that. Leckel what's going on man I don't have as many props this week that I feel great about maybe that's a good thing maybe it is a good thing I still am worried that you're going to be really mad at me here because if you remember last week the the bait man under

15:29targets is easy win but then we had earths and he was almost there in the first half well earths over three and a half targets hit but the over two and a half receptions didn't and I accidentally move the line while we were live last week so I won't be making any live bets here so that all the props I give out you can you can get in on as well. I appreciate that I think the viewers will appreciate that too but yes I played the over two and a half receptions he had two quickly and then did nothing the rest of the game. Not only that I don't know if you saw this so this might make you even more upset but at the end of the first half he caught a third pass for my target and it was brought back for an illegal shift. Yeah you know what I don't get as mad about that honestly there was an illegal shift if it wasn't an illegal shift maybe he wouldn't have been open. I try not to beat myself up about those theoreticals. That's very healthy approach. I know that sometimes in the moment it doesn't feel great but you have to it's just like when you're got when you play a longest rush prop and there's a clear hold on the play and it doesn't get called I feel like the stuff works in

16:30your favor just as much as it does. That's a yeah that's a really good point we always remember the ones that do get called back we don't remember the ones that should have been called back that are. So I'll show you what I've played so far I've just been kind of trying to they have this move the chains boost at underdog it starts at 30% and then works its way up every time that you play it so I've just been playing a bunch of $50 entries. So here are some of the ones I wanted to run by you there's not a time on the slate that I love this week but I constantly go back to the Alvin Kamara lower than whatever his longest rushes this week it's nine and a half. I'm going to continue to play that Caleb Johnson I saw even with Chris Brooks out against a bad Bears defense I just have no faith the green bay can run the ball and 39 and a half rushing air just seemed like a powerful lot of rushing air it's for what could be the backup running back in this game maybe he's the starter maybe he's not we don't know Marcia on Lloyd is still there and just the Malik Washington over receiving yards every week just keep playing them especially since Caleb Douglas has been out just and he's not going to play again keep hitting those so I played those that was sort of 40% boost I went to

17:32this just Patriots Raiders game Michael Mayer and Trey Tucker to hires of receiving yards for mayor 18 and a half longest reception with both corners out for the Patriots for Trey Tucker Demario Douglas only 24 and a half receiving yards you might want to put chism into that spot instead I'm not quite sure what his receiving total is we can take a look at that in a second but I know that without Mac Collins without AJ Brown like we're getting down to very few receiving options in the Patriots offense and Douglas is the steadiest pair of hands 24 and a half just didn't seem like a lot and then I threw on the Elvin Camaro longest rush lower again along with Kendrick Bourne higher than 24 and a half receiving yards now that Marvin Harrison is going to be inactive has been traded I don't we'll get to that in one second and then Amman Ra higher than 79 and a half receiving yards initially I was looking at Gibbs for this spot but and it's not that I don't it's not that I don't like Gibbs for this game obviously I think everyone likes Gibbs for this game but Arizona does have the capability of stopping the run a little bit so when it came to yardage

18:38I didn't know if I wanted to do yardage is a receiving total super high that like Amman Ra is going to eat in this game so why don't you just play him instead yeah I think of of all those I really like that Vegas and New England kind of like game stack of props there particularly pop Douglas and and those trade and the trade Tucker pick I think those two really stand out I have a new props tool this week and and it loves both of those quite a bit okay good yeah you can get that at blickanalytics.com I'm using sharp stack that's a part of the four for four package where you can get all your DFS tools ownership projections optimizer Sims it's all in there for for four calm slash mayo to get yourself 25% off that's something that you're interested in using both this weekend for the rest of the season it's all sports too so you know if you want to get in some hot WNBA playoff action boom you can get it on that on football off days as well with sharp stack 4444.com slash mayo let's talk to smurvin Harrison thing because as of right now when we're recording the trade has been announced it's announced that Harrison is not playing for Arizona this week it has

19:43not been announced to who he's been traded to yet yeah and it's been announced that he's not going to be traded until after the game and so it's it's a messy situation I haven't been able to to rerun anything with with Arizona so I don't know how much of a boost I'm going to show this for Kendrick born but it should be a little bit yeah on the surface it should be one of the things I like about it is we we've already seen a couple weeks where born wasn't just like getting targeted because he happened to be on the field and happened to be open but he was actually getting first read targets and and so it seems like they they are you know willing to like actually not make him a priority of the offense but they they recognize that like he brings a very real skill set to the team now it's a different skill set than Harrison so I think that's my biggest concern is like okay well are they just going to have someone else step into Harrison's role because it's not like Harrison has had a big role right like that's the other thing here is it's not like

20:45a player with a 20% target shares now suddenly out of the offense this is a guy who's basically been at I had Harrison projected for a 12% target share this week so I don't think it's a huge upgrade for born but it's it's also not nothing 24 and a half seem pretty low for his totals anyway that that's probably what he'd be around probably I don't know if he even had time to reprice it or not I bet when we look back it'll be like 35 and a half 39 and a half for this game the backups right now like the extra guys that could be running routes for Arizona jalen Brooks semi fehoko the guy that used to be on the chargers devin du valinay the former returner for the Ravens it's a pretty slim pickings once you get past the first few guys on this cardinals roster yeah I think it's going to be a lot of 12 personnel with like Elijah Higgins running routes as well or something like that that makes it kind of sense so where did you want to go with with your props because I'll just add that those Kamara unders to everything well first off let me just say like didn't you start the show by saying that you didn't have a ton and then you ran through like 12 different process you have yeah I mean

21:50I'm not I don't feel great about any one of them I just got you to correlate some together when I listen when I do this I kind of scan everything and it's like oh I like that one I like that one I can make a case for that one let me throw down some you know a little bit of cash on it's not like we're playing huge stakes here 50 bucks here 50 bucks there and a lot of it is just to juice out those boosts yeah that's fair okay so let's go to the Tennessee Houston game let's go carnelltate over 18 and a half longest reception okay so there is weather in some of these games that we do need to worry about I think a little bit I don't know if we actually have to like worry worry but at the same time that is one of the games that could potentially be affected if the weather shifts a little bit right now in Tennessee you're saying it looks like rain before the game dry during the game but with high winds yeah and I mean I wouldn't call them high winds like gusts of 15 to 20 so slightly impactful but it's definitely nothing that I'm overly worried about and I would also say that like that sort of weather even when it does exist I care way more about that

22:50for like a receiving yardage line than along his reception line because one of the things you see is yes pass volume as a hole is down and maybe pass efficiency as a hole is down but we also see defenses react to that by stacking the box more often you know playing more single high leaving guys in single coverage more often and so the longest reception is a lot less affected in the overall yardage but this is a really good matchup for our longest reception prop even though it doesn't really seem that way so far this year Dallas wide receivers had a 12.9% explosive pass rate against explosive reception rate against this team compared to an expectation of 8.3 18apolis 19 percent compared to an explanation expectation of 7 percent since the 18 percent compared to 9 percent and Buffalo week one was the one the kind of negative 12 percent versus a 15 percent expectation the only two other quote unquote alpha wide receivers it's one of the things this this new props tool that have does is kind of categorize each wide receiver into a specific role so that

23:50you can see how that type of that role of wide receiver has done against the specific defense CD lamb 9.5% explosive reception rate against this team that was the longest of 30 yards chase was 11.1 percent with the longest reception of 32 yards and we only need 19 plus from carnaltate who like most of his routes a lot of his targets are beyond this number so he basically needs to catch one or two balls and he should go over this number so I see where you're going here with the 18.5 his other numbers for receiving totals are 4.5 receptions which is actually juice to the lowers so we're getting some bonus money here for over 4.5 receptions it's like a 49.5 yards that's juice to the under and then all of a sudden we're like oh we get some extra bucks for playing the over 49.5 I see no reason that he wouldn't go over this number I'm not particularly impressed by Houston's defense this year especially as you mentioned in the middle of the field yeah but it's it still can more thrown in the ball right like we we had the discussion last week ironically we

24:51had this exact discussion about and take one off he went off but but remember last week we we also settled on the longest reception because there was like at least now camward only has to make one good pass because what we had seen in the first few weeks of the season was Tate was open down field pretty consistently and camward was missing pretty consistently so at least at least with the longest you only need him to make one good throw when carnaltate gets himself open down field if you go to the 49.5 like I always think about it okay if one hits how likely is the other to not hit and if he goes over 49.5 like it to me it feels like it's almost a guarantee that he's going over that 18.5 if he goes over the 18.5 he might get like two receptions for 41 yards or something like that and not hit the the over yardage and I can see that playing out a lot easier than the other one now that's partially why you're getting the the little bit of a boosted payout on the yardage but I still prefer the longest reception here well you can drop it by 10 yards to 39.5 and then you're even money on each side wow that's yeah so sometimes you got to play

25:58around with these these filters a little bit that seems much better now yes okay now now it becomes really close I wonder if I can get that immediately on on the tool I might just show the what they default to it's weird that they're defaulting to that instead of the the 50% or but I noticed that elsewhere too like Theo Johnson is defaulting to 14.5 yards and his multipliers like 2.3 x there it's like well okay well why doesn't he have like a five and a half yards line or something like that then that you're offering but maybe he does maybe I just didn't check it but yeah now I'm wondering so I did this last week so I played your longest reception as a part of our giant boosted parlay to try to get the people myself and the people some money but I also displayed carnal tape over 99.9 yards as a huge multiplier it's not a bad look for him that if Ward is on during the game and he does get like as you said his average depth of target is so high it only takes like three of these to get to his multipliers yeah the other thing about the alt here is like it I don't know if it's been 100% confirmed yet but it sounded to me like Demiko Rines was

27:04going to take over play calling duties on defense so there is a little bit concern here that okay the Houston defense goes back to looking like it did last year instead of how it's looked so far this year just because Ryan's is now calling plays so if you're going with the with the ladder at least it's like you're making the same bet you're you know you're making the bet that okay well that doesn't make a difference and as a result like those those upper echelon ladder bets are really really strong whereas you know the the possibility that the defense is better this week than it's been plays out just a much larger role kind of at the at the median here where where if we're going over 39 half or even the the single longest reception yeah even taking a look at one Dale Robinson targets in this game just if if you don't want to play if you didn't like Tate and you don't believe in Tate and you want to play like a Tate under I think the other look would be Robinson over targets I'm not opposed to that but man six and a half is a is a high number it is but his rights were like

28:06two yards from the line scrimmage yeah what's uh what's Tate's targets length seven and a half oh wow which makes sense it does make sense I mean he's but that's also why like man if if you think that he's getting seven targets even seven and a half targets that call it eight whatever the chances that he doesn't have at least one that goes over 18 and half just seems so low to me because so many of his routes are like you know they're more than that just in terms of how far the ball is traveling in the air so you just need him to catch one okay so carnell Tate higher than 18 and a half longest reception is Blickel's first play on the other side of this ball if you're just trying to run something in this game and just you know since we're talking about Houston anyway we can go to it I was looking at Dalton Sholtz and I was looking at the lower than whatever his total is I like that one of the first ones that I gave out this week was under six and a half targets for Dalton Sholtz it's now four it's it's it's also point eight four x so it's yeah you can't you can't even take

29:11the lower on anything else yeah yeah that you'll find you'll find some pretty decent all it's on overs but they they don't allow too many all it's on unders but yeah I mean the perceptions you go three and a half and go lower the the Sholtz lines here remind me a lot of burner last week where we had the the under 16 and a half longest reception that hit pretty easily which is like these numbers are inflated because of one game he had massive production in one game and it looks like underdog is using basically like his average production to set the lines this week but that was a huge huge outlier and and so I like I like basically all the Sholtz unders especially with Nico Collins back right like that's a huge thing and they're not playing the Cincinnati defense like both of those reasons uh kind of contribute to why Sholtz had that massive game he's just not that big of a part of the offense otherwise no and even if you just take like make the opponent agnostic like the only two games I mean the only one game he had that was

30:11any good was that Cincinnati game he did a bit more in the other game when Collins was out he has done nothing with Collins right and one final point here is like those though that game um the game last week against Dallas like the game environment made them continue to throw the ball uh they're probably going to post a uh positive pass rate over expectation because they can't run the ball to save their lives but if they're leading comfortably against Tennessee like they'll be content to run the ball for four yards and three carries and then punt some of the time so so yeah I think past volume we should expect to be a little bit down this week as we mentioned he's not much of a part of the offense I really like the Sholtz unders how about Jeremiah love 50 or more rushing yards against the Lions I have no idea what to think of this simply because I I can't tell if like he's actually injured and playing through it when he probably shouldn't be or if they kind of use that to explain why they just felt like Al Jure was more effective last week and he's actually healthy and he's fine I just I don't have a good read on it so I don't really

31:15want to mess with any of his props I even if he's slightly banged up this number seems artificially low because of that though possibly um unless they get into a negative game script pretty early which is definitely possible it is but I still feel like he would be on the field of time here like that it just takes a third and 11 draw and he breaks one well then what if what if we just went to the over 61 and a half rush plus receiving instead because then you're you're getting all that receiving work might but I mean he might just clear the rushing total right away these games don't necessarily go exactly how we think they're gonna go definitely true what one thing I will say though is uh notice the the lines there so you have 49 and a half for rushing so a difference of 12 yards between rushing and receiving his receiving arts line is 14 and a half typically the combo is going to be higher than the sum of rushing plus receiving so I think that's actually a pretty good indication that we should go to that combo all right well throw that one on for now I don't love this is what I was doing earlier it's like I have interest in this one let me play it and then we we try to narrow

32:17it down a little bit what was the second one that you wanted to bring out I've got two more that I think are pretty strong one of them is very fun one of them is not at all fun so let's go to the fun let's go Keaton Mitchell uh over two and a half targets and I really like this one for a couple reasons first of all we just saw he only ran 12 routes last week but I think he was targeted six times on those 12 routes three of which were design targets were like the the play was never going to be anything other than a Keaton Mitchell target and I think that they absolutely just have to continue to do that because no Quentin Johnson probably no lad McConkey where are they getting offense they have to try and manufacture they have to try to script it and putting the ball in Keaton's hands I think is probably like their best chance of explosive plays the best chance of offensive success so this one seems like a smash to me and I think we can ladder this one up as far as we'd like as well so it's 0.080 or point sorry 0.86 for the higher of two and a half

33:22targets if you took two and a half receptions you're into plus money right away but if we do go to three and a half targets all of a sudden that's a that's a pretty juicy multiplier we got on the go it's a it's a good one and yeah I mean I'm good at four and a half I'm good at five and a half like I think he could be super super involved in the offensive game plan this week against all right what was the next one next was Jacobi brisette over two and a half Russia temps which is a very boring one this is like he has he has four scrambles on the year so I think that's part of it but he loves the sneak he does his own sneaks that's huge so yeah I think the the two and a half is is really strong I think he um he has let me let me find the exact numbers uh for this year but but yeah he he's got something like uh was it 19 carriers or something it's it's a big number so he had four four one and six in his in his four games so far this season so yeah I really like this

34:22the it's all about the sneaks but the the scrambles like the scrambles help but even if even if you told me that he would not scramble at all this week I would still think that this is a pretty good bet so the scrambles just make it a really really good bet tower shock picks let me see let me check the the tool uh if you go higher you're you're taking a bit of juice it's 0.89 on underdog right now it still doesn't seem crazy to me and now I failed last week with my read of Malik Willis and his longest rush and that I was actually tied to a bunch of those Bateman props that I would have had a very big week if Willis had just run he didn't run at all so maybe it's just too difficult to run against Minnesota but longest rush for shock this week is six and a half it is really difficult to run against them because they they do so much run blitzing and even when they're not blitzing they're simulating pressure so they're bringing extra guys into the box uh that's a little bit less you know quarterback specific because most of

35:23shock's rushing is scrambles but it also means that you know when when a team is blitzing it means there are fewer open lanes that a a quarterback can scramble through so that's nice as well the the downside is like man if he goes over his rushing it's likely because he had one lane one time to scramble and because there were so many guys blitzing it's like now there just aren't enough guys in the secondary to get to him quickly um for his interceptions I've got him at 55% to throw him an interception but at least as of last night it was 0.9 x so I don't know what it's at now 0.89 so yeah I I'd pass on that one okay I was taking a look at braille and Alan and I actually had a lot of interest in judgekins from this game as well I know this could be one of the bad weather games that we spoke about that could just mean to more rushing attempts to I was I would like to say that I was right on my read of braille and Alan in his role last week I was wrong about how many plays the jets would run that was insane yeah I'm I'm really high on on braille and Alan this week to the point where like I even you know I announced in in my disco is like hey braille and Alan and

36:26Garrett Wilson are swimming extremely well but I got to figure out if they're if they're over inflated for some reason I went back and checked no it looks like everything is sound I even I I'm I even have Isaiah Davis projected for like a larger workload than what the market is expecting so and I'm still showing really really good numbers on both braille and Alan and Garrett Wilson so whether it's rush attempts yards I I'm in on whatever braille and Alan stuff you like yeah the jets run defenses like okay and the browns D run defenses a little bit below average so I just don't know which way I want to attack this is the issue like well what is the his rush attempts would probably be where I want to go but there is the chance that they just get down and then all of a sudden they're throwing if they're throwing I still think that he's going to be in their catching passes honestly yeah I mean the the one that's popping the most for me is the rushing attempts I've got a nine percent nine percentage point edge on that even with the point nine multiplier even with the point nine multiplier yeah so that that makes it a 59.4% imply probability I've got

37:28them at 69.2% so actually 9.7 and and yeah like it's it's strong and I think this is another overreaction to last week where the it's the play volume like as you mentioned off the jump here and Cleveland's run or sorry not Cleveland Chicago's running game is such an outlier where it you know some teams like get get hot at times you typically don't think of like a run game getting hot or or being cold Chicago's run game absolutely gets hot and cold they have games where their run game is just unstoppable they're they throw so many different types of runs at you I think that's part of it where like you can't just make an adjustment because they'll you know Ben Johnson will be a step ahead he knows what adjustment you're going to make and he's going to take advantage of that and and hit you in a different way and and last week that's kind of what happened to to this jet defense like they they just kept getting Ben Johnson to over and over in the

38:28run game I I certainly don't see Cleveland doing the same thing to them. I was waiting for a little Jordan Humphrey props to drop but it's only just touchdown or first half touchdown at this point but if Sean Payton is taking back play calling duties and there's no pap Ryan or Jordan not little Jordan Humphrey's been upgraded to the team and as part of the active roster you're like they're they're going to be looking for him because they always do. Yeah I also think like it brings sudden stuff into play brings mims stuff into play had a huge week last year uh laddering mims in in one week um so uh good memories there might go to go to go to some mims one and a half receptions for mims man ten and a half longest reception is so low the 14 and a half receiving arts is also really interesting because like that's probably one reception unless it's one of those bubble screen type stuff but like he he basically only gets two types of receptions down field where it's one catch is going to be over 14 and a half or the bubble screen stuff which he can absolutely take for for longer than that so uh I'm interested in

39:32mims stuff I also think like this is something I'm trying to think through for uh for dfs as well we know Sean Payton's taking over play calling but I don't even think the play calling was the issue the issue was that nix just was just turning down open receivers they ran the same type of play probably four or five times last week to perfection where they had waddle running a clear out and they had pat Bryant running a deep dig uh kind of right behind that underneath that and he was wide open every time and nix just for some reason decided not to throw it and threw it to rj harvie for two yards instead I I feel like Sean Payton grilled into nix like all week like hey we need you throwing this route when it's open they do it really well and now it's just like okay with with no pat Bryant who's actually getting those routes is it waddle because now they have the speeds their mims on the field to run the clear out instead of waddle is it sudden and you're putting him in that role or is mims now in that role where

40:33they still have waddle is the clear out knowing he's the guy who's going to get most attention running down field if we get that right there are huge opportunities here because I think they they run that route really well and it's very clear they're going to call it over and over at something they've done uh for years and now they have the like the perfect clear out guy in jl and waddle or mims because of how much speed those two guys have would you be interested in putting mims on this I would yeah I think the both the receiving yards and the longest reception are intriguing I think maybe the thing to do here is like what if we ladder up his longest reception well I was going to say I like the the baseline longest reception I like laddering the receiving yards because if if he's the guy who's getting that deep dig route like he might catch five for 80 and none of those longest receptions are going no none of those receptions are going to be more than like 25 yards or so so there's not a ton of upside in the longest reception there but my god like he could just explode in the receiving yard so that's I think the one that I most intrigued by

41:34and uh and that's something that I will wait until we are done here to start doing that myself so it's it's available for all of us but but yeah that's that's going to be a really fun one and certainly something I'm going to do a lot of so it what even if you just take him up to 24 and a half from this 14 and a half for example uh it gets you some pretty juicy stuff right away yeah I mean the 39 and a half is really good the 49 and a half is like all of these I think are outstanding I think on something like this like if we're going to throw it on the big ticket for the giveaway this week then I mean we probably maybe I can make another one where it's like Keaton Mitchell over four and a half targets Marvin Mims over Jesus 39 and a half yards like that that's going to be a super multiplier anyway yeah I mean so at 10% imply probability like you're basically getting somewhere between nine and 10x on uh on that multiplier that's that's so good at 49 and a half man it's so good in reality that could be one catch for him it could be one catch and again it like it's just the bet of he's the one who's getting those those routes that it's that one specific route

42:39is going to be open I think nix is going to be coached all week to actually throw it this week and uh if it's him like man it so basically like what what do I think the probability is that it's him running those routes this week I don't know with third okay well if if he has a third of a chance to be the one running those routes then I think he has like an 80% chance to go over 30 yards it's it's really really high if he's the one getting those routes so those all it's are all spectacular all right so we'll throw mims and we'll throw Mitchell on the potential alt ladder that we can take a look at you can uh you can also like by the by the same logic uh you can go to Sutton's over uh long as reception as well um I I don't think his uh yardage ladder will be anywhere as intriguing but like if he's the one getting those routes again like that's going to take him over I think it was 18 and a half when I saw earlier I might might be 17 and a half but 19 and a half longest reception that that's still solid so yeah uh I think um I wouldn't play that and mims together

43:45because it's likely that you know at at least if they if they treated the way they've treated that route this year it's like they're calling that for the same guy over and over so I wouldn't want to have both of them in here because if if mims is the guy then that makes the Sutton bet bad if Sutton's the guy that makes the mims bet bad so uh just one at a time but can certainly mix and match those so the the other ones that we liked from earlier uh I'm just going to throw these on just to see so we both like the Demario Douglas over 24 and a half um we can get that up to like normal level and not even really normal levels there's no real in between inside their 24 and a half or 39 and a half they're offering us two and a half receptions actually looks even better honestly oh let me check that out as opposed to paying juice for the over 24 and a half receiving yards good you will if if you're using this in a ladder I really don't care about that juice I I care way I'm not using it I'm putting it as a part of like our bigger ticket got it okay then then yeah I mean again like if it's part of a big ticket same thing right is like I care less

44:46about the juice there I care way more about the juice in like a two pick player a three pick play where they're all standard um so I think I would just go yardage and that's that's the one that's showing the largest edge for me as well okay so let's let's go through these and like I have a few more that I said that I liked earlier and we'll try to cross some of these off so you really like the car now take higher than 18 and a half longest receptions correct I do and then Dalton Schultz we can get lower than three and a half receptions at a plus boost here I like that one a lot as well Jeremiah love you seemed pretty eh on so that's one that we can get rid of I'm okay with getting rid of it was something that I was intrigued by that I wanted to save for the combo rushing and receiving your it's 61 and a half you're good with taking that one out if I was confident that he was really healthy I would like it but I'm just not confident enough in that Keaton Mitchell laddered up three and a half targets we can bump that back down to two and a half to try to make it palatable for this yeah let's let's bump that down we've got we've got so many picks here well you know we're we're trying to get Max Payout here to get give away some cash all right we're

45:52back down to two and a half targets for him right now at point eight six a crushed our multiplier to and didn't crush it it's still 85 x yeah we still have one to add here we were up over 200 x here a second no braille and Allen higher than 16 to half rushing intense you liked but again that's another one that's dragging us down a little bit I still like it okay and then de morio Douglas higher than 24 and a half receiving yards the other ones that I had the most interest in like I love this Kamara under longest rush it hits I think it's hit like 95% of the time over the last three years he is so slow now yeah and listen it's Minnesota's defense they stopped the run pretty well yeah they do I like this so long oh and now it's up to 10 and a half look at that even better beautiful so now we're back up to 157 to one the the other thing about this is I really want to be surprised if like as each week progresses we see more and more of a split where like come

46:53air is the past down guy can drain millers the early down rushing guy and and then we're talking like a 4.3 and 39 drop by and not only that but like it's we're only fading like five to seven Kamara carries for the longest and not you know 10 to 15 and that yeah I mean that like that would instantly make it just an awesome awesome awesome pick so the only other one that we can go here because we still have the percent and we do have Marvin Mims laddered up as a part of this two to get us up to 24 and a half to get us to this 157 to one we can replace Braille and Allen with that Malik Washington one that I do like we don't have to but that one is more around evie actually it's actually plus money right now we can get him to yeah 49 and a half would probably get us up to like 200 and something to one let me see where I have Malik Washington not high enough I bet he's he's not showing up as one of the edges he should be he's okay he's at he's at plus 5%

47:57plus 4.9 to be exact that's not bad it's not bad it's not I think Braille and Allen's better Braille and Allen's twice as good by edge okay well what about Daniel Jones under rushing I think I like that nine and a half although it's about the same as the Braille and Allen one so like year after year Pittsburgh is one of the best to prevent excramples so that part I like he's certainly not at a point in his career where like he's he's getting many design carries my question though Pat is like we're getting 157x does it is there really a huge difference between like 157x and 175x or something like that well if we just put that target total of two and a half back up to three and a half I think we're at two hundred and twelve to one you're not wrong greed pays did you not know that greed is good greed is good at times how bad would you feel if seven out of eight hit and Keaton Mitchell finished at three targets and you went to the three

48:59and a half instead very very well very badly I think you're going to be happy I 157 it's one thing when like you're you're hanging you're hung up on a payout difference when it's just about like shopping for the best line it's another one like you actually have to change the pick that you're making to get the higher payout in that case I think we we we can be a little more conservative more making it a big play do you think that there should be something we're doing this week with some of this weather to target some unders for some of these guys I don't really think so because none of the games strike me as like the weather's changing the median outcome a ton it seems more like it's just preventing some some really good like tail outcomes for DFS so I care more about the weather from a DFS perspective this week than a different props perspective like how about Malik neighbors under yardage because he's going to have a catch he's going to hit the ground and they's going to limp off the field and you're not going to know whether or not he's going to come back if he just win the bananza him not coming back you win it's not a bad thought and uh and

50:02certainly I think you know when when you see people on Twitter like over and over just complaining like I I sure hope you're going to rescue this pick because he got injured it's like well maybe you should just bet some unders for once in your life you know I was always of that impression too it's not something that I would go complain about but they are giving you refunds for this step why wouldn't you ask for it sometimes they do but you know what let me let me rephrase let me listen you people shop around for an extra yard or an extra three cents of vig on anything if you can ask them to give you your money back on a losing wager why wouldn't you that's a good point let me let me rephrase my my criticism I think it's fine if you ask the book to to refund your bet screaming that it's rigged like that's a different story right that's screaming that it's it's rigged or threatening that like you're never going to play again on that sports book and they don't refund your five dollar bet you you are you're going to play again exactly yeah so that that is more what I'm uh making fun of here yes it's more the optics of everything it's not something

51:07that I would want to do but I would gladly take the money back I'm not going to lie to you yeah okay so here's the giveaway this week thousand dollars to anyone who drops a comment in the comment section and gives me their favorite prop of the week and that prop wins reminder to smash the like and sub of the channel while you're here as well this works on Apple this works on Spotify wherever you're consuming this product here's the official eight play for us this week coming up first your favorite play of the week blico carnal tape higher than 18 and a half longest reception I'm in on Dalton the shults ladder down lower than three and a half receptions has not cleared this total with Nico Collins in the game she could be percent another one of yours higher than two and a half rushing attempts marvin mimza higher than 24 and a half receiving yards laddered up potentially replacing Pat Bryant's route tree in this game we have a ladder situation on our hand Keaton Mitchell higher than two and a half targets on the other side of that ball braille and Alan higher than 16 and a half rushing attempts de mario Douglas higher than 24 and a half receiving

52:08yards in my favor to the week Elvin Camara lower than 10 and a half longest rush so it's what changed a percent rushing attempts changed on us when I went to go enter I didn't I didn't do anything it was so yeah you know you did I really didn't I genuinely did not Jacobi percent what's he at now oh it's choose up now look at that look at that it went from wait it went from 1.07 to 1.06 I can't believe it so it went slightly down that's okay we'll take that 75 dollars pays 11,691 in 74 cents when this wins and you've done all the things that I've asked and I'll put this tail linked down in the description if you just want to play with us as well then you'll get a thousand bucks if I draw you out of the person with the correct prop and commented in the comment section and extra points if you like subscribe subscribe to the audio podcast as well and now I want to go back and play this Keaton Mitchell here's where all Pat's money goes by the way if you're ever wondering

53:14we're gonna go to four and a half targets on Keaton Mitchell then we're gonna go on the other side of all the old mims we're gonna speed this game up as much as possible and we're gonna go to receiving yards and we're gonna go to 49 and a half hell yeah we are and what do we got 39 look at that almost 40 to one hundred pays four thousand I'm in let's do it that's a winner guarantee are you guaranteeing that's a winner no because I'm gonna go back and throw the Kamara under longest rock on that too like that as well yeah once I once I get the 70% move the chains boost because I already use my 60 if they give me the 70 in the other thing that I like doing this a lot like this isn't even joking like if you have a bunch of plays that you love just mix them all together right like it's it's the same thing like on a sportsbook you can click like the round robin button you don't have that option underdog but you can go do it more play the flex play as well and the payouts aren't as good they are but if you wanted to do that so spend the four minutes

54:16it takes to input the the full round robin yourself of the standard place I've been taking momentous creatine as a part of my daily routine for the past few months now and I'm trying to maintain muscle well slim and down who wasn't trying to do that but between running and lifting and trying to maintain that muscle I've really found that the creatine is one of the easiest things that I can do to support both my strength muscle and the recovery every single day but not all creatine is created momentous just introduce the signature spec creatine they're most advanced version yet it's manufactured in a pharmaceutical facility goes through a six-stage testing process with four independent agencies and delivers 10 times fewer impurities tighter heavy metal limits plus screening for PFAS and microplastics and the ultra fine powder mixes effortlessly no great no clumpin that's the momentous standard if you're taking something every single day quality matters head to live momentous dot com and use promo code pat mayo for up to 35% off your entire

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56:28let's talk draft kings because I think a lot has changed on this slate over the last little bit and the ownerships will be updated in a little bit at four for four dot com obviously to react to the marvin harrison news that'll come on saturday evening i'll release my cheat sheet on saturday evening as well once those drop to give you guys a better chance swift is now projecting 43% ownership without manungai on this slate i had to pick up rochelle johnson in a fantasy league this week to play sucks uh there's uh there's a guy missing there i think maybe maybe you guys still have um genty projected in but i think mike washington is going to be the the highest on player is is genty officially out i don't think he's officially out but i think it's like you know well that's why then so yeah forty two hundred dollars what would you expect mike washington's i've got him at 55% and i think that i'm too low on him really now are you talking about high dollar single entries are you talking about yeah i'm so i i think i think 50% in mma and like 65% single entry and high

57:34sticks okay so let me throw in the lineup that tando and i made and we kind of came to the conclusion that was going to be now upwards of the chalk lineup for the week and i think a lot of that has now actually changed over the last little bit i always say that because uh let's take a look here we are right now so here's what we had going on yesterday when we did this you see i have to go re up again because i dumped a lot of money into golf this weekend it didn't go well my guys last night were like combined fourteen over when i went to bed now they they got hot when i after i went to bed but but yeah it was ugly yeah so just that that last second of the more it's like oh this like two hundred dollar uh single entry isn't close to full let me play i know i i really need to stop doing that like i'll go look at the contests and we like oh yeah there's like now jai the rake is paid for plus more in these contests i better go enter them like i didn't want to play this tournament to begin with yeah so we had brisette Gibbs Warren

58:35michael wilson and tonio williams uh deontay mires traimic bride sam la coda and brown's defense that's what the optimizer had spit us out yesterday now looking about this through the lens of today obviously Warren is no longer the best uh value of the six thousand dollar running back that is swift we have potentially another running back opening up in mike washington forty two hundred dollars it looks like mcclory and might play so antonio williams becomes a lesser of a play than if mcclory and digs were both out for this game digs is already out and with mires i mean cfl mires was going to be my guy and then then then i was like no too many people are going to play him i'll play tinsley instead now there's a chance both chase and higgins play thus rendering these guys a nert and we have Kendrick born opening up as a cheap play in this game as well so what do i do with this lineup yeah the the first thing here um now for clarity are we talking like what should you do to make this a better lineup or what should we do to make this a better reflection of like the most popular

59:38build that people are going to go to well i still think that this some version of this is going to be a popular build so i think number one let's change this into what we think the new popular build is going to be with the information that we have right now great then warren becomes my washington and then we open up all the money in the world yes so where does that go williams and or mires are being upgraded now there there are a number of ways that people can do this so there's still going to be some popular plays down here like i think um uh robin roman wilson uh tray harris both of those guys are going to be pretty popular obviously you don't need to have both of them in this in this truck lineup here you know what you can play tray tucker instead of tray harris just let me give you he won't be that popular though because people don't want to double up on radars here well i i suppose that's true maybe the move is just to play the uh cures and on slot with two corners now that's uh that was that was a potential leverage lean on on

1:00:41leverage lean with with tempo this morning all right and i still like the radars defense a lot uh actually you know what now i can just get up to viking's defense and not worry about it i i think that people should be playing viking's defense any chance they get this week it's a great not only is it a great matchup it's versus an aggressive offense which is awesome yeah an aggressive offense that wants to throw the ball so i'm 100% with you there um so now you can do let's get rid of la porta here we'll get rid of a lion in this lineup and swift was projected at like all the cash everything in the world so that does drop us back down to that random range that we're at but mcbride can become born very easily or just throw in born yeah well how much is born born because i i don't think people are going to be afraid to triple stack at all here with uh with arizona the other thing is um when you put swift in it basically landed landed us on like the exact combination to go tre harris and roman wilson of course the receivers that we mentioned yeah tre harris it's like we we actually would have 500 left over there

1:01:44but that's that's not a huge deal no but that's uh so some version of this like how much is james and williams 59 yeah he's 59 what's you just you could switch out roman wilson for tesla just if people are just trying to stack this game up and then you actually get back up to 4900 which is like luther bernard and trade tucker it's a bunch of guys on time millie could have there we have a week washing to now you could uh you could also um oh i guess people people would be a little bit less likely to do that but you could go born instead of tesla you could go james and williams born williams and bring the defense down bring swift down to braille and alan how much are titans d 21 that's that's the move i like that works too yeah that works yep and then you get to overload that game if you want to

1:02:46yeah that i can pretty much guarantee this align if it's going to be played oh for sure uh i absolutely agree but where do you think that the value pockets have opened up on this slate because of it yeah i mean it's tough right like i i think to me the the first the first like all of a sudden is jalen warren a really good play because now people are fading they're not like outwardly fading jalen warren but he was going to be like the super high popular guy to begin the week and now all of the value around him or lower has opened up now he's projecting it eight percent that sounds like 22 two days ago i think that that's largely just because douls expected to play is he expected to play or is he a game time decision i think he's a game time decision that's most that's more likely than not to play but but regardless i like i like where your heads at i i love the thought of okay who was going to be popular then now just can't to be popular because there are too many plays ahead of them and so like brail and allen to me is one

1:03:47of those guys fifty four hundred dollars is projecting really well we love his over on the rushing attempts we think he's going to be involved in the passing game it's cleveland right so like uh you know the the game script is way better than what many john what many jets games are going to be like so i i think that he becomes really good play i only have him at like 25% ownership now we're in you know if you took my Washington off this slate if you took geometry swift off this slate brail and allen would be forty forty five percent and and now we get a bit of a discount there can make this similar argument for erin jones or chase brown so so yeah lots uh lots of kind of guys who fit that build of the kind of guy you were describing there i actually like a manual Wilson a lot this week and i like to more as a pivot off of brail and allen but you can see that we have brail and allen and a manual Wilson projected at sixteen and ten percent right now i want to see with the mic washington we didn't have anything on him right as of right now yeah he's projected zero so that's gonna vault up to when you say 50% yeah at minimum okay so obviously that means far

1:04:50fewer people are gonna play allen and especially Wilson because he was the secondary option of that range anyway yeah halonies on the injury report they haven't signed anyone else like we could see the same usage as last week this could be an easy 20 touches i get it's against the nineers defense but there's no reason this game can't shoot out a great i think is a very solid play and if we go to gpp value i bet she's up near the very top gibswift taylor is taylor gonna be under owned yeah um he's he's been one of the like the really popular guys in terms of who like everyone around the industry is pointing to johnathan taylor as a sneaky play this week the thing is i don't i still think he's capped ownership wise just because they're they're you can only play three running backs max in the lineup and there are just too many of them who are really really good plays for for people to be that comfortable you know going to an expensive contrarian guy in chase browns gonna have essentially no ownership agreed remember we talked last week you're

1:05:52like he doesn't catch passes like he caught all the passes he did uh that was certainly largely because jimmar chase wasn't in there and let's also note that kiren still dramatically outscored him so i i i think i think i deserve some credit for that one i'll play the tim roll real quick just hoping for some credit that that the kiren was a good call that was actually my best lineup last week it was a limar lineup that had kiren williams in it love that the limar in his one half of football was just he why i had what i had the the lineup that i had built out was limar zay tape and kiren williams and then the rest of the lineup sucked but it was still my highest scoring lineup man that could have been so damn good i know especially if limar had continued playing exactly so where would you want to go like if we just talk about what's like the leverage stack this week and but before we do that are you of the mind that you would completely fade the Arizona Detroit game or would you try to take a piece or two from it like do you still

1:06:54play gifts do you still play traimac bride like if we're going to stack up another game entirely because there are a few and i mentioned them to tambo that i do like and i think there's one big contrarian one that you can go to that no one is playing that has huge upside so i think this is like this is the first decision that anyone has to make before they build their lineup is you first have to side am i playing for the Detroit airs and Arizona game to go off in which case i i want to figure out how i can play that game in a sharper way than what the field is doing or you decide i want to play for that game underwhelming on this slate and then you kind of have to get into okay well then what stack am i going to and how can i best tell the story through my line up of how that game underwhelms um i i don't want to spoil what my leverage lane was but part of my leverage lane was kind of okay this is how the game fails not just that i'm fading it but i'm i'm fading it in a specific way that tells the story of how the game fails and how i can leverage

1:07:56the field as a result but but yeah i think like that's that's the thing you have to do here it's it's so much more likely than any other game to have a ton of fantasy production that if if you so last week for example i think we had a very popular game in jacksonville since an adi where it didn't strike me as way more likely to succeed than any others so you could build the line up to just ignore that game and said black game could fail and my lineup could do really well this week if you're fading that game i think if if all you do is say like all right i'm just not gonna play anyone from arizona to truite it's probably not the best way to go you probably want to either play some pieces and those pieces should be designed to like slow the game down or you want to play that game in a contrarian way um maybe overstack it and and use you know multiple guys that people aren't gonna use like how many how many Detroit arizona stacks are gonna use to and Kendrick born this week and if you're if you're doing it that way like not only are you getting different within the stack but i'm also saving money so that you can have better one-offs around the stack than what most people have when they're using it so that's kind of the way i'm

1:09:00thinking it through and i still haven't totally decided um which of those options i prefer but there there are some stacks that i'm intrigued by outside of this one okay so let's just try to let's decide on what we want to do we're not gonna stack up this game so which pieces should we be using here is this like a good spot for james and williams or is it better to have gips so i think if you're not if you're not stacking up the game it's it's not a matter of like who do i like the most from the game it's who's most likely to succeed from this game in such a way that i don't get penalized for not having the entire game if james and williams goes off that game is almost definitely going off like that gulf is going off yeah exactly so uh and only that but like he's then speeding up the game and giving the ball right back to arizona and so those ppr machines are going to hit so yeah i i think gips is probably the the best route um i think you can get away with uh love from arizona as a way to slow the game down i think you can get away with

1:10:00mcbride ironically as a way to slow the game down just because if mcbride goes off like if he gets 14 receptions or something like that there aren't chunk plays and that's a lot less volume from michael wilson who i now think could be 50% owned so uh that's a possibility as well so if we're going to stack up another game the one that tambo and i talked through that i think has the potential for a ton of points of things break the right way especially with longer plays uh and against two teams which i still think have bad defenses but the numbers don't necessarily support that is green bay chicago yep i like that call and uh and i i like the raiders i like the raiders as well yep that's uh that's the thing i talked through with with with with tambo as well i also like denver and the the really valuable piece about trying to stack denver is you have mims uh you also have late swap to your advantage there are only three late games this week it's one of the three if you have like a contrarian piece or two early and everything goes like perfectly according to plan

1:11:04not just in terms of like the guys that you used do really well but also like a lot of the chalk that you didn't play a lot of the cheap guys that you didn't play didn't do that well you can now pivot to a unique Detroit Arizona stack and or to even like a pretty popular Detroit Arizona stack and uh and play that way and yeah uh from a pricing perspective like it works out well because even though the denver stack is a lot cheaper than the Detroit stack you have the Gibbs piece so you can do like denver and Gibbs and now if you feel the need to pivot or if you feel the privilege of being able to pivot because things went so well you can now just do it at trade Arizona stack where you're using like all of the main most likely to succeed pieces and just not using Gibbs which is totally fine so so next next mims Sutton next mims Sutton uh i would i i don't think i would do denver without waddle but i think you could then choose either mims or Sutton as the second guy mims love it so next mims waddle what is the bringback is it tray Harris because i'm good with not

1:12:08playing any chargers this is another one where like it used late swap to your advantage here so i do think tray Harris makes sense um i also think it's really fun to go to uh to go to keaton Mitchell is the bringback that feels like a waste on the i mean this is tambos words coming out of my mouth that feels like a waste on this slate with so many good running back options at different tiers the the one thing i would say about it where i agree is i wouldn't play keaton instead of my Washington i would play him with my Washington because i don't want keaton to have to beat him i just want him to have to be a good enough value that what i gain at other positions is worth it so what's throwing Harris for a second so throw and tray Harris like we don't need a running back that cheap is the whole thing which is a good point which uh so like you know i i'm going to i'm actually like definitely going to uh consider some keaton Mitchell and uh my Washington lineups i probably won't consider that as part of a nix deck okay so we have a running back in a flex i threw in Vikings d we can drop down to titans or raiders really doesn't matter to me um

1:13:12you can play my Washington here no problem or you can play that like a manual willsen which is also a part of the late slate of games if you want to completely redo your lineup i believe that leaves you one of the good running backs that's not swift it is oh god no it doesn't it be judkins i suppose from here we could find some money though and get up to swift we could find some money i mean if we really wanted to punt it flex we could get all the way up to like Jonathan Taylor if we wanted to yep or McCaffrey yep so what do you think we should do here man um well how much was chase brown you can go you do this you go titans against the texans which again i think is a pretty good play and then you get chase brown as your you know we'd move willsen out we'd move brown into that running back slot i i think i think the first thing that i would do here is i would go mic Washington here because the next stack is contrarian enough that we can we can go Washington and now

1:14:17look what we've opened up right so uh here the the Jonathan Taylor play makes a lot of sense here too because we we don't want that Detroit Arizona game going off right like we're already trying to tell the story of that game gets slowed down a little bit it's a lot of play volume from each side in that scenario i'm on rossain brown like his his ceiling is being zapped from the game environment from Gibbs stealing all the touchdowns so if he's a worse play at 7900 then that makes it more likely that Jonathan Taylor separates in this price range so i really like this right here all right so we'll go tailor and the way that you'd want to finagle this is to throw Gibbs into your flex for maximum fly your highest price player latest player playing into the flex just to give you opportunities if i mean you're not going to know if this fails or not like i asked you or would have to have a terrible game and that's the only and titans d completely fails those are the only two guys from the early slate that we'd have yeah it could also mean that like some of the early guys that you don't have especially some of the cheaper chalk goes off and now it's like oh man well now

1:15:24now those lineups are like desks into succeed because you know uh all they need remaining is like Gibbs to do really well right really think the genty's not going to play i don't think so i mean i guess it's gonna be iffy it's really really rare that someone gets added to the injury report during the week is a total non-participant in a practice and then ends up playing okay it just it it happens very very infrequently i mean this is the same guy that was carted off the season ending injury and was fine that's true so this was the stack that i was looking at and you got to you got to plug your nose for it ready yep shuck ola ve juan johnson i do have to plug my nose but i'm not i'm not a hundred percent opposed to it with Aaron Jones coming back that's your shell to start things off it's expensive no one's going to have it and it probably finishes as a bottom one percent lineup but it is the type of lineup that if this is the game where minnesota gets got that

1:16:28new orons has the right type of personnel to post points quickly they do and as good as minnesota's defense is like they're they're high risk high reward nature of play it's been really effective this year so we haven't really seen the explosive come against them but like jalen hurts shredded them last year with explosives through the air it can happen and and yeah that if that happens then this game environment like really goes off for that reason like i would almost think i'd rather bring it back with with jefferson or addison depending on jefferson's health than Aaron Jones because i don't think Aaron Jones helps the game environment at all but i think he just it's so easy to rush and score touchdowns on the ground against minnesota and i think they're going to try to do everything they can i mean this this kind of creates a game situation that's almost like every other saints game so far this year they get annihilated in the first half and you you hope jones scores a touchdown or two in the first half and then the second half it's just all erin Jones well new world's place catch up has it been every team dominating new orons on the ground or was it just

1:17:31at lana i mean i believe they have the worst run defense yeah they have statistically the worst run defense in the league per place they've played Gibbs bjohn and henry is that they have the worst run defense or they've played the best running backs you can say that about the text and defense too is that i mean we don't know and this is a situation where i think if we don't know you're getting all these guys at one percent yeah i mean not jerry jerry jerry jerry had zero explosive runs against them that's interesting new orons has given up a 52.5 percent success rate on the ground this year i can't i point to who they've played now what now to that point like i think part of the reason why it lana had an insane amount of success against them brine robinson was at 64 percent success bjohn was at 58 percent was because they have injuries and those injuries are still there so even if even if they are maybe being underrated as an overall run defense because they've

1:18:35played three of if not the three best running backs like they're still in in a rough spot and uh we we heard troy a troy aigman leak last week on the broadcast that like staley didn't even think he had a chance so so maybe he's feeling the same way this week but i don't think he's feeling that way against erin jones but it's not so much that i'm saying erin jones isn't a good play i agree with you there i just think if you're hoping for this game to really explode like if you're hoping for the ceiling outcome for the game environment addison does more for that or jeperson does more for that then erin jones does i i see where you're coming from here i'm trying to monopolize the touchdowns in this game and i feel like that's the best route with erin jones since calmer marie is still their quarterback that's fair like if it's not listen it could be no one loves being tackled on the one yard line more than jeperson jeperson he's like old school kelvin johnson or hulio jones yeah like they're the kings of it there's erin jones but plunge in like you're hoping like my bet here is that this is an erin jones like two

1:19:39touchdown day and he gets his hundred erins and all of a sudden you're like oh erin jones scored 28 points yeah the issue now becomes what do you do with the destroyed erin zona game with a line up like this that's yeah that's where things get really hard because now it's harder to tell the story one thing you can do is you go to trade defense oh that's interesting yeah and just hope that just steals plays and scoring away yeah and uh so the the destroyed defense like they have a very clear weakness they are they're worse than the league in terms of allowing explosive passes they've allowed the most explosive passes in the league highest explosive pass rate and league uh and it's like they're they're they're trying to separate from the field in that regard erin zona doesn't really throw down field and one thing to trade does do well is they get pressure their top 10 in pressure rate top 10 and hit quarterback hit rate top 10 and sack rate the erison offensive line isn't any good so there is an outcome for this game where Detroit just gets pressure all game long and they win handle as a result do we still try to move Gibbs into this lineup or do we just say screw it let's build some sort of balance with this team with a bunch of guys that have

1:20:41huge potential but no one's going to use i i feel similarly to Gibbs as i did way back in week one which is like i'm viewing him as a luxury i'm viewing him as i would love to get him into the lineup but i'm not going to force him in uh and and especially in in one like this where we have important expensive pieces on the New Orleans side like particularly if you went to jefersen instead of jones it'd be that much harder to get to Gibbs so uh i would by all means like i would click Gibbs here and let's let's see if we can do it comfortably we're we're in this chalk wide receiver range um so i i think it makes sense to do so here where it's always nice to like i i think one thing we've learned in NFL dfs um i know you and tambo have had this conversation even about like the roster construction data that i that i've done aware you do have to eat some chalk in NFL dfs some yeah and and so in a lineup where we have already pivoted so strongly from what the rest of the field is doing it makes sense to use the value that the rest of the field is

1:21:44using because our our bet here the main bet that this lineup is making is that New Orleans Minnesota outperforms Detroit Arizona now we still have some of the Detroit Arizona pieces personally like i wouldn't use Kendrick born in this lineup because we have we have the lions but we can use we can go to the the tray Harris Roman Wilson combination here here's the issue with those guys they're fucking terrible terrible players at cheap wide receiver chalk value just aren't for me like to do everyone else can use them that's great i don't want to i agree with you want tray Harris i don't agree on roman Wilson i i think roman Wilson looks like is it pretty decent player and i have i have more of a question of just how much is his role going to expand with pitman out because Wilson has kind of been like the de facto slot guy for them in friormuth is their main slot guy whereas germany bennard has had more of his snaps come out wide the same way that michael pitman has so it seems like even though roman Wilson has been the better guy he's been the better receivers been the more effective on on rodgers targets and we know that like rodgers likes to go

1:22:48back to what's working the guy who more seamlessly fits into the role that pitman is vacating is germany bennard okay interesting so what if we just play chism instead i like chism do you like it better than the demario dug was who's like that's one i need to dive into a little bit more i think i think chism is probably going to be more effective on a per route per target basis but i don't know how confident we should be that chism is going to get close to the same opportunity that demario dugless is going to get so what's our dug was in there and that gets us muleek washington i believe okay if it if we might actually fall is he 49 he might be 49 that's right that was 49 so we could go oh there's muleek washington 46 yeah so we can play rummendoons a as well on a game that i said that i like and seemed like bagen had eyes for odunse last week yeah he did he definitely did so we could just play him as a one off from that game like the we're playing a one off regardless yep yeah that works if and certainly there's still going to be plenty who would prefer burden to

1:23:53roam in which case okay go go to chism instead of demario yes yeah this works well do you think chism will be their deep guy no who's their deep is going to be Williams then i don't really i think it's pop dogless but they don't really have a deep guy let's say pop dog was when i think pop dog was i think eight yard slant over middle he's he's one of those slok guys though that does get deep targets yes but i think that's a product of when other guys are out there that he can kind of sneak by everyone you know you know the the answer could be that kyle Williams gets like five snaps and they're all hey you're on the field to run deep at that point i would probably just like to play kyle Williams longest reception over i i'm certainly not advocating for playing kyle Williams it sounds like you are no this will be the lot of question of who's the deep threat well if you're just good because you said the raiders as sort of the stack that you know can provide a lot of leverage here are you playing

1:24:53that stack with washington in it because i probably would at that point i i'm not sure about that i'm kind of leaning towards not i'm kind of leaning towards um letting my raiders stack tell the story of how malik or how mic washington doesn't get there which is like okay the gain script is bad and washington only gets twelve carries but he's also not that involved in the passing game and that was more of a genty specific thing than a positional specific thing for the raiders and it's like you know bowers gets fifteen targets trade Tucker gets eight targets hits on a deep ball and and it all happens that way and now mic washington only gets 60% of the field seven drafting points that tracks actually i like that idea so that's what i'm saying with my i mean i prefer the jordan love watson golden with like swift coming back and even burden if you really want to just overload back game you can still sneak gibbs into that line up no problem if you wanted to yep that's my preferred one i do like the theory of this new whirlens one though i guess it's a it has a chance to be the worst lineup of the week but it is one of the few situations that no one

1:25:57is going to that has explosive upside i do agree with that one one of the things i've been trying to do a better job of this year than i have in the past is when my stack doesn't go nuclear does it at least keep me in the ballgame and and the newilands when i think fails that test but it definitely passes the does it have the nuclear upside to beat Detroit Arizona test yes so not probably great for you know the three max hundred and fifty dollar again seven hundred people much better for the i mean twenty no it's a mill it's a mille maker style lineup is what yes yes hundred percent all right blick analytics dot com alx buckle is over there right now thanks for joining on again man absolutely we're having a lot of fun we're gonna hit one of these prompt tickets i know it especially this week since i didn't move any lines but we rely well yeah i yes they hurt us talking hey i heard us talking about Jacobi percent i picked it down a little bit i can't believe they went from one point zero seven to one point zero six i've never seen a move like that before it happens we'll take it at least they didn't move it down more so if you want to get

1:27:02in to the draw once again sleeve your favorite prop down in the comment section if it is a winner and we win you will be eligible for a thousand dollars given away from that underdog entry that we played you want to play your own underdog entry and don't have an underdog account use code mayo yeah not only will you get a deposit bonus but if you play a five dollar entry then you will immediately get a hundred dollars bonus funds in your account to use and you can just tail the way that we had and win tens of thousands of dollars wouldn't that be anyway i'm pat mayo thanks for watching i'll see you next time