NFL Edge Audio: Week 5. 2026

0:00One week season. Texans at Titans kick off Sunday October 11th, 1pm Eastern, over under 38. Game Overview by Pappy. This game doesn't have much to offer for DFS, with the best play being the Texans defense. Cam Ward looks like he is going to join the conversation for biggest QB bust taken with the first pick. The Titans' backfield is a messy three-way split, with Singleton starting to sneak onto the field. Colonel Tate might end up being good, but this is a tough matchup. CJ Stroud is a very different player when he has Nico Collins. They have a great matchup, but if the Titans can't fight back, the Texans might take their foot off the gas in the second half. David Montgomery and Woody Marx are splitting snaps behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Dolph Schultz is still overpriced from his game against the Bengals.

1:03How Houston will try to win? The Owen Four Texans enter week five off a 34-30 shootout loss against the Cowboys. The Texans are among the most disappointing teams in the league. It's hard to believe that they were the betting favorites to win the AFC South at the start of the season. They were expected to have any lead defense with a good enough offense, but through the first quarter of the season, nothing could be further from reality. They've given up 27.25 points per game and have scored over 30 points in both games that they had Nico Collins. The results haven't been there for the Texans, but it's worth noting that they've faced Joe Barrow, Josh Allen, and Dac Presscott. That's quite the slate of Cubes in your first four games, and three of the Texans losses have come by one score. The Texans aren't as bad as their record. Dmitrikel Ryan's runs the show for the Texans, but he's one of the most defensive oriented head coaches in the league. That leaves new offensive coordinator Nick Kayley in charge of the offense. This was a big promotion for Kayley, who spent most of his career as a Titans coach for the Patriots before catching on with the Rams as a Titan coach and past game coordinator

2:03the past two seasons. The Texans have been playing fast. They are seventh in seconds per play. It's easy to chalk their pace up to being 0 and 4, but their losses were competitive, and it's more likely a reflection of how Kayley wants to attack than Gameflow. The Texans' O-line has been abysmal, ranked 30th by PFF. The Texans have gotten solid pass protection from their tackles, but they've been terrible on the interior, and no one can run block. The Texans want to be balanced. They're 15th in PROE, but they've been forced to throw, ranking 7th in pass rate. There isn't a huge gap in the Texans' PROE for an 0 and 4 team. They are being slightly influenced by Gameflow, but they probably want to be a past leaning team. The Titans' defense has been lit up through the air, 30th in DVOA, and below average on the ground, 19th in DVOA. It's no secret that the Titans' defense is bad, 27th in total DVOA, but they've been awful against the pass, and only regular bad against the run. There isn't any history to go on with Kayley, but given his relatively young age, 43, and

3:06a history of being involved with passing games, it's fair to guess that he's probably a past first coach. If it wasn't for Ryan's conservative nature, the Texans might be one of the most aggressive teams in the league on offense. The Titans have faced Geno Smith, Jalen Hertz, Jameson Winston, and half of Lamar Jackson. That's not a group of killers, with Jackson being the only guy who is a strong passer. Jackson was 15 for 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns at halftime. The Titans have one of the most attackable secondaries in the league, and its male practice to play them without a past first game plan. Kayley doesn't have much history, but it's likely he wants to throw, and this matchup is perfect for passing. Expect the Titans to attack through the air, but if they take the lead, Ryan's conservative nature will likely cause them to fall on the ball. How Tennessee will try to win? The Owen 4 Titans enter week 5 off a 2418 loss to the Ravens, who lost Jackson just before halftime. The Titans weren't expected to be great, but they weren't supposed to be this terrible. There was hope that Cam Ward would take a step forward in his second season.

4:08Instead, Ward is solidifying his status as a bust, who went number 1 overall in a week QB class. In fairness to the rest of his draft class, Jackson Dart who went 25th overall and Tyler Schuck who went 40th overall were the next two QBs taken and look substantially better than Ward. Robert Salis calling the shots for the Titans, but like Ryan, he's one of the most defense oriented coaches in the league. That leaves the offense to Brian Debal. Debal has long been one of the most overrated coaches. His success came as the Patriots tight end coach with Grant Kowski, the Alabama OC with a loaded roster, and the bills with Josh Allen. Then Debal went to the Giants and managed to win coach of the year despite going only 97 and 1. He fell on his face the following three seasons, posting an overall record with a Giants of 20, 40 and 1 and getting fired midway through his fourth season after a 2 and 8 start. Debal has been playing fast, he's third in seconds per play. It's easy to attribute the Titans pace to game flow, but Debal tends to play with pace and playing quickly is likely part of his system.

5:08The Titans' O-line is bad, they are ranked 24th by PFF, but they are coming off their best game of the season where they moved up four spots in the rankings. Right tackle, J.C. Latham has been playing better and his development could make their line closer to league average than bad. The Titans want to run, their 26th and P.R.O.E., and despite being consistently behind have tried their best to limit Ward, who is 12th in pass rate. Debal is overrated, but he's not blind, and it's easy to see that Ward isn't good at football. The Titans are going to try and win on the ground until they are forced to let Ward cut at loose once they are behind. The Texans' defense has been hurt through the air 24th in DBOA and solid on the ground, 6th in DBOA. The Texans' defense was supposed to be elite, and even though they haven't looked great, they've faced three of the best quarterbacks in the league. The only middling QB they faced, Daniel Jones, threw for 235 yards, tossed a pick and ate 4 sacks. The Colts won on the back of 4 field goals, only being able to muster a single touchdown. The Titans are going to struggle on offense, but their best chance is attacking through

6:09the air. That's not how conservative Sala wants to play, and it's not how Debal wants to play with Ward leading the charge. At O'n 4, it would make sense to be aggressive, but that's not how NFL coaches who want to keep their jobs see things. They'd rather lose a close game with low scores than risk getting blown out by being aggressive. There isn't a good solution for the Titans. Expect them to bang their head against the Texans' run defense while the game is close before letting Ward try and bring them back after they fall behind. Lichliest Game Flow This game has a miserable 37.5 point total, with the Texans installed as confidence 7.5 point road favorites. You don't see many O'n 4 teams installed as touchdown road favorites. The reason is that while both teams are O'n 4, the Titans deserve their record, and they've failed against weak opponents. The Texans have played some of the best quarterbacks in the league, and while their season has been disappointing, they're better than their record. The most likely outcome is that Texans walk over where the Titans struggle to move the ball and the Texans pass with ease. These teams have the same record, but they aren't equal.

7:12Expect the Texans to handle business against the shamefully bad Titans. I see light Texans at Titans. Game setup Both teams are O'n 4, but Houston is a confident 7.5 point road favorite. The total plummeted from 40 to 37.5 as better is hammered the under. Houston Path Stroud and Nico Collins have any leap matchup against Tennessee's 30th ranked past DVOA. Conservative Ryan will likely pull back if the Texans build a comfortable lead. Tennessee Path Cam Ward looks like a bust, under 200 passing yards and three of four games. Dave All-in-Sala will lean on the run game until forced to let Ward throw from behind. Lichliest Game Flow Texans walk over is the most probable outcome as the Titans struggle to move the ball. Lo-scoring a fair where Tennessee cannot generate enough offense to keep pace. DFS plus Angle Texans DST is the strongest play, affordable price against the worst offense Houston is faced. Stroud Collins' stack has matchup upside, but game environment and blowout risk limit ceiling in tighter builds.

8:13Bengals at Dolphins Kick off Sunday October 11th, 1 p.m. Eastern, over under 43 Game Overview By High Low White receiver T Higgins went DNP-DNP through Thursday with growing in neck injuries and appears to be headed for an absence against the Dolphins. White receiver Jamar Chase has a concussion but got back on the field in a limited capacity Thursday after missing Wednesday session. He'll need to remain asymptomatic, get in a full session Friday, and be cleared by a third party independent neurologist to play in week 5. White receiver Caleb Douglas has yet to practice since injuring his ankle in week 2 and appears to be trending towards a third consecutive absence. The statuses of Chase and Higgins are likely to have a significant impact not only on the Bengals but the entire slate. How since the Nadi will try to win? The Bengals rank first in pass rate over expectation, but 15th in situation neutral pace of play, leaving them at 10th and PROE+. I could write more words about the static nature of this offense, but I think we all get the picture by now.

9:1430th in play action, predictability biased toward the run when under center, modernist motion rates 24th at 51.8%, yeah everyone is doing this now. Good route layering with a design that aims to get players into one-on-one situations and poor play sequencing. This just appears to be the end game for as long as we have the pairing of Joe Burrow, who I now regard as responsible for a larger piece of the blame pie and Zach Taylor. That said, some level of uncertainty is introduced should both Jamar Chase and T Higgins miss this contest, although this team is not really built to simply write out an inefficient run game regardless of who is on the field. That last part will become increasingly important as we dig further into this spot. Chase Brown ranks 7th in the league and Opportunity share at a sparkling 79.6%, placing him in the middle of a list of backs I regard as being true workhorses to start the season. My threshold is 70% or more of the backfield opportunities. That said, and even following some offensive line shake up this off season, the Bengals are struggling on the ground. They are currently ranked 23rd in adjusted run blocking yards and 27th in yards per

10:17carry at 3.51, and for all the things the dolphins are not, one of the things they do well defensively is stop the run. They currently rank 10th in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.07 yards per carry ranked 17th in the league. Samajapirain remains on hand for strict change of pace duties after accounting for every non-brown opportunities for the Bengals this season at 20.4%. Lucky undrafted free agent wide receiver Dante Myers shot up to a 91.4% route participation rate following the early departure of Jamar Chase due to a concussion last week. Taylor had some glowing comments about his burst acceleration and speed this week, effectively saying that he would rank him behind Jamar Chase in ability to turn any touch into a touchdown. Mitchell Tinsley also saw a trickle down increase in route participation, jumping to a 52.4% rate while Chase Brown increased slightly to 60.3. And that was primarily without Jamar Chase, which would likely increase further should T Higgins also miss this week. I tentatively expect Higgins to miss while Chase would appear to have the better chances

11:21of playing as long as he can clear protocol before Sunday. There is a scenario where both miss, in which case I would expect Myers and Tinsley to operate in near every down rolls with tight end Micaseki and Chase Brown seeing a bump on route participation as well. Jamar Chase is obviously the top option in this offensive active and becomes one of the top options on the slate if playing without Higgins. How may am I will try to win? The Dolphins ranked 29th in EPA, 31st in success rate, 30th in EPA per pass, and 30th in total EPA per play ranking near the middle of the pack in EPA per rush attempts at 19th. This is a team with a significant talent deficiency as they trudged their way through year one of a complete rebuild. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins ranked 24th in yards allowed per play at 5.9, and 21st in points allowed per game at 25.3, but 17th in total yards allowed per game at 335.5. Their varied, too high heavy defense has filtered the lowest target rate to opposing wide receivers while forcing additional volume to running backs and tight ends, allowing the second most

12:23fantasy points per game to backs and the third most to tight ends. But how are they trying to win? Defensive minded head coach Jeff Halfley is forced to look to outmaneuver his opponents, treating them the best he can with a talent he has on the defensive side of the ball, while layering in deep shots via the downfield aggressive Malik Willis behind play action and an established run game. Ahead of their week four game against the Vikings, I said that I expected Oli Gordon to lead the team in snaps and opportunities due to his 225 pound frame in pass blocking abilities. That is exactly what happened, with a towering back turning a 56% snap rate, 51% for DJ Herman and 31% for Jalen Wright, into a 68.8% opportunity share and an even 100 yards and a score on 11 opportunities, 9 carries for 100 yards, 0 additional yards on 2 receptions. I also said heading into week four that I wasn't overly confident in that role in backfield split carrying forward considering these straight ahead nature and 4.61 speed of Gordon. I don't know if I'll be right about that second statement, but I would not be shocked

13:24to see a more even split in workload between Gordon and Wright against the team that isn't blitzing over 70% of the time. The Bengals have been nails against the run after completely retooling their defensive line, holding opponents to the fifth lowest defensive ARBY. The second level tackling has been an issue, resulting in 4.54 yards per carry allowed. Caleb Douglas has missed the previous two games and appears headed for another absence in week five. In the two games without him on the field, the route rates of the remaining skill position players went as follows. Malik Washington 80.6%, Chris Bell 71, Kevin Coleman Jr. 59.7, Greg Dullsich 58.1, Gordon 54.8, and Will Cachmeric 22.6%. No other pass catcher ran more than 11 routes and that was Herman. Most notable in that stretch is the fact that Dullsich's route participation remained in line with his average from the first two weeks of the season. The aerial offense is effectively Washington and Bell, and then everyone else, making it clear where a potential outlier performance would come from, and part of the reason we

14:24were on Bell last week. That said, this is a far different matchup against a Bengals team playing man coverage at an elevated rate while filtering targets to the tight end position in the intermediate middle of the field. Far less to fall in love with in this spot. Likeliest Game Flow. It's difficult to picture a scenario in which the dolphins muster more offensively than they've been able to throughout the first month of the season, leaving the Bengals as likely to control how this game plays out, regardless of the statuses of Chase and Higgins. We should also expect the Bengals to look to continue managing game environments as they have, regardless of who is active. That could leave the Bengals with underpriced skill position players in roles that far surpassed their respective salaries, making this one to keep an eye on as the weekend approaches. Furthermore, we could get Jamar Chase against the dolphins without T-Higgins, which would be another situation to keep at the front of our minds. A lot still to sort through based on the availability or lack thereof for the primary pieces from the Bengals, but will be prepared for any outcome. I see light, Bengals at dolphins.

15:27Game setup. T-Higgins trending toward absence with groin and neck injuries. Jamar Chase needs Friday clearance from his concussion. Chase and Higgins availability will significantly reshape both the Bengals offense and the full slate. Bengals path. Chase Brown holds a 79.6% opportunity share, but faces a run stuffing Miami front ranked 10th in ARBY. Dante Myers and Mitchell Tinsley would move into near every downrolls if both Chase and Higgins sit. Dolphins path. Olly Gordon led week 4 with 68.8% opportunity share, but a more even split with Jalen Wright is possible here. Malik Washington and Chris Beller, the clear aerial options, though since the Nadi's elevated man coverage rate, dims the outlook. Bengal's control tempo, regardless of receiver availability, Miami's offense has shown little capacity to keep pace. Underpriced Bengal skill players could land in expanded roles that far exceed their respective salaries. DFS plus angle. Jamar Chase without Higgins is a premier slate lever if cleared, consolidating target share

16:27in a favorable matchup. Myers and Tinsley become deep value candidates at minimum salary if both Chase and Higgins are ruled out. Here's that Patriots kick off Sunday October 11th, 1 p.m. Eastern, over under 45. Game Overview by Highlow. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez did not practice Wednesday with neck and shoulder injures respectively for the Patriots. White receiver Mac Hollins has a calf injury and was unable to finish week 4 and also did not practice Wednesday. Running back Ramandrey Stevenson was limited with a knee injury. White receiver Jalen Naylor has a concussion and did not practice Wednesday for the Raiders. Both teams are near the middle of the pack in explosive play rate and explosive play rate allowed. Both teams should largely be forced to march the field and string together drives to achieve offensive success. Keep an eye on the expected status of Stevenson as an absence would leave the bulk of the backfield to Henderson in a run funnel matchup. Both offensive lines could be an issue in this one. These are the 31st and 30th ranked run blocking offensive lines through 4 weeks.

17:30How Las Vegas will try to win? The chess match between Clint Kubiak and Zach Kerr is going to be really fun from a fans perspective. Kubiak's west coast, Shanahan inspired offense aims to generate space and explosive plays, leveraging heavy rates of play action and pre-snap motion to help diagnose coverages and expose places to create space for his primary skill position, cadre. Carlton Davis III missed week 2 and Christian Gonzalez missed week 4. In those two games, the Patriots continued to utilize elevated rates of man coverage, 42% versus a season average of 36.4% with elevated blitz rates, a 7th ranked 39.3%. I'm not sure what we see if both Davis and Gonzalez missed week 5, which appears more and more likely with each passing day. Furthermore, part of what carried the Patriots to the Super Bowl a season ago was the variability in the middle of the field on that side of the ball with athletic linebackers and safeties able to roll coverages and alignments to disguise the look. They used that to greatly influence an opposing team's top option, but they needed all pieces working together fluidly to do so.

18:32In this spot, that is most likely to be rolled coverage and varied alignments designed to limit Brock Bowers, forcing the secondary options from the Raiders to beat them. Kubiak knows this as well, with the biggest unknown being the status of the Patriots top two corners, which brings us back to the chess match we're likely to see on this side of the ball. This is going to be a game of trying to outmaneuver the opponent, and these are two of the top young minds in the league in that setup. Ashton Gentee ranked 9th in Opportunity Shared at 76.1%, 6th in Rush Attempts at 78, and 7th in Total Yards 429, but has struggled to a modest 3.4 yards per carry through 4 weeks. The Raiders have blocked the 3rd lowest ARBY, one spot above the Patriots, while the Patriots have yielded the 4th highest defensive ARBY and 4.48 yards per carry to opposing backfields, bringing up a relative weakness on weakness matchup on the ground for Gentee and the Raiders. Mike Washington continues to operate as the clear change of pace option, and has seen his role grow slightly with each passing week, which makes sense considering he has three explosive runs on just 24 carries to the five explosive runs on 78 carries of Gentee.

19:37He remains unlikely to completely eat into Gentee's workload, but his presence at least has kept Gentee from earning a true workhorse role in recent games, yet a season low 62.1% Opportunity Shared last week. Mid-end Brock Bowers is a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, and Kubiak is using him as such. Bowers has aligned wide at a ridiculous for a tight end 42.2% rate in the slot at a 41.1% rate and in line at a lowly 9.2% rate, effectively leaving Michael Mayer is the true tight end, 67.1% in line rate. In the two full games in which Bowers was healthy this year, the route participation rates went as follows. Bowers 91%, Mayer 76.4%, Trey Tucker 75.3, Gentee 59.6, and Cody White 40.4%. Jalen Naylor left after only 19 snaps in week 4, but had been around 60% in the previous three games. Naylor is looking questionable and Jack Bash is uninjured reserved, placing additional emphasis on the top three options through the air, which are Bowers, Mayer, and Tucker.

20:38Considering the matchup against the Patriots team highly likely to roll additional emphasis in Bowers direction, regardless of where he lines up on the field, there could be room for additional volume to flow in Mayer and Tucker's directions. Naylor are overly stimulating from a projection standpoint, but both carry legitimate cost-considered ceilings, particularly of both Davis and Gonzales Miss. I expect the general structure of the offense to continue showing league leading 12 personnel rates, with the understanding that Bowers really isn't playing a tight end's role. How New England will try to win? The Patriots continue to be a take away your top options and force you to march to the field while limiting explosive plays defense that compresses their second level while leaving additional space between the linebackers and secondary. Until last week, their offense was struggling to sustain drives, placing additional strain on the way they want to approach games defensively. That could become a greater issue if both Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzales Miss. 5 with injury, and it could alter the depth of the linebackers. I see that as the likeliest scenario considering the shortcomings of the Las Vegas run game.

21:39More depth from the linebackers and condensed spacing between the secondary and front 7 theoretically exposes the back end. Pair that with a game plan likely focused on making things more difficult for Brock Bowers, and there could be additional volume and opportunities for Tre Tucker and Michael Mayor. On the other side of the ball, the offense continues to lack the ability to attack down field in the absence of AJ Brown, which has left a more reliant on stringing together drives of their own. They opened up the playbook a little more against the bills in week 4 and achieved their first real taste of offensive success because of it. Josh McDaniels will need to replicate that more intricate aspect of play sequencing to avoid regression against the Raiders. Remember, this team had averaged only 12 points per game prior to a 29-point eruption against the bills. Head coach Mike Vrable initially said that Ramandre Stevenson would be unable to practice Wednesday after sustaining a knee injury last week. Stevenson was then listed as limited on the team's first injury report, raising questions regarding the veteran back status heading into week 5. The team also worked out Jamal Williams early in the week.

22:39We'll need to take a weight-in-c approach here as it looks like a legitimate 50-50 chance for Stevenson to suit up against the Raiders. Should he miss, expect Traviyan Henderson to see the lion share of the backfield opportunities and a run funnel matchup. The Raiders ranked just 29th in defensive ARBY and have allowed opposing backfields to average 4.97 yards per carry through the first quarter of the season. Neither would be overly interesting for GPPs should Stevenson play, considering the backfield split to date, with Stevenson accounting for an even 50% of the available opportunities, Henderson accounting for 34.2% and Corey Keiner accounting for 12.5%. Drake May honestly looks lost to start the season. Processing is slow, he's latching on the first reads, and his pocket presence has been atrocious. I don't mean to sound like I'm layering it on thick, but that's what I'm seeing on tape. I honestly don't think I saw a single snap where he made it beyond his second read against a Bills team that was the worst defense he'd faced all season. You consistently see his head quickly jolt in one direction after the snap and not move.

23:40Furthermore, the offense lacks any real layering as far as route structure is concerned, confining the offense to the short to intermediate areas of the field. Hunter Henry 69.8% route participation, Romeo Dobbs 67.4, Stevenson 53.5, Demario Douglas 48.8, Jack Hollins 44.2, Eli Raridin 39.5, Efton Chisholm III 32.6, Kyle Williams 27.9, and Henderson 25.6% all effectively operated as package players against the Bills, reinforcing the notion that this team is forced to rely on play sequencing and personnel diversification to move the football without brown. It is also maddening to me that the Patriots continue to refuse to give Williams additional snaps as the only true downfield threat remaining on the offense, last week giving practice squad call-up Efton Chisholm III a higher route participation. Likeliest Game Flow The matchups to watch from this one are the New England offense against the Las Vegas defense and the New England run game against the run funnel Raiders. I have a high level of confidence that Clint CubiX Raiders will be able to find some level

24:43of offensive success against the banged up Patriots defense, meaning it's the other side of the matchup that is most likely to decide the ultimate trajectory of the game environment. And since we're looking at a dynamic scheme versus dynamic scheme for the Raiders offense, and lack of dynamism offense that requires sequencing and personnel variability to be successful versus the disruptive Raiders on the other side, I would be more inclined to fade the Patriots inside with the Raiders on the road. Total play volume and explosive plays are likely to be at a premium on both sides, leaving us less interest in attacking the game environment as a whole. I see light Raiders at Patriots Game setup Both offensive lines rank 30th and 31st in run blocking through four weeks. Explosive plays should be scarce, both teams must sustain drives to score. Las Vegas path Brock Bowers likely draws extra defensive attention, opening volume for mayor and Tucker. Ashton Gentie faces a weakness on weakness ground matchup against New England's fourth highest defensive ARBY. New England path. Ramandri Stevenson is a true 50-50 to play, Henderson becomes a run funnel beneficiary

25:45if he sits. Drake May has struggled with processing and pocket presence limiting the offense to short area throws. Likeliest game flow Raiders offense is better positioned to find success against a banged up Patriot secondary. Total play volume and explosive plays are likely at a premium, reducing interest in the overall game environment. Vikings at Saints kick off Sunday October 11th, 1pm Eastern, Over Under, 41.5 Game Overview by Highlow The Vikings are 4 and 0. The Vikings have two games in which they were held without a touchdown. The Vikings rank 27th in EPA. The Vikings managed one offensive touchdown total against the Bears, Buccaneers and Dolphins. Something is going to give eventually. White receiver Jordan Addison mispractice Wednesday with a hamstring injury.

26:47While White receiver Jordan Jefferson returned to a limited session after missing week 4 with an ankle injury. Titan know of Phantasmabdomin injury and return to a limited session after missing week 4, while running back Alvin Camara as a back injury and was listed as DNP. The Saints have now trailed by an average of 7.4 points per game at the half in their 21 games under head coach Kellan Moore, which jumps to an average of 8.75 points per game through the four games to start this year. How Minnesota will try to win? Minnesota is a team still searching for their identity, which is an interesting conclusion to draw considering they are one of only three remaining undefeated teams. The offense continues to look completely lost, largely unable to demonstrate the down-and-distance consistency required in a Kevin O'Connell system. Kyler Murray appears to be yet another poor schematic fit for an offense based on timing and rhythm, requiring anticipatory throws that either lead a receiver open or are delivered before the receiver's break. Furthermore, Murray has historically been inaccurate and late on the primary source

27:48of explosive plays in a KOC offense, the Deep Crosse. And yet, this team is 4 and 0. But is that in any way indicative of further success, or is it simply a product of their schedule through 4 weeks? I would heavily argue in favor of the latter considering they have played a broken packer's team, the Bears in Driving Wind and Rain, a broken Buccaneers team, and in arguably the least talented roster in the league in the Dolphins. Only listed as two point road favorites against the Saints, the Vikings are implied to have a 55% chance to head into their week 6 buy with a perfect 5 and 0 record. That said, they likely require a continuation of outmaneuvering opponents as we enter the second quarter of the regular season to continue stringing together winds, which points us straight to their defense. A long-time staple amongst the most aggressive, dynamic, and skilled defensive play-callers in the league, Ryan Flores has the talent, scheme, and in-game field to continue generating disruption and flipping games on their head, which is the clearest path towards victory for this iteration of the Vikings.

28:49Jordan Mason underwent thumb surgery and has been placed on injured reserves since week 2, meaning he will miss week 5. In his absence during the most recent three games, Aaron Jones has handled an 86% backfield opportunity share, which would rank fourth in the league behind only Jameer Gibbs, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor. He has seen 74 total opportunities in that three game sample. And yet, he hasn't scored more than 16.8 DK points. And those 16.8 DK points required 28 opportunities against the dolphins in week 4. The expected workload gives him a rock solid floor, but poor efficiency is accompanied by a shaky ceiling, particularly considering an elevated $6,500 price tag. Exacerbating those shortcomings are low touchdown equity for an offense still working to find their groove, and an offensive line blocking to a 19th ranked ARBY per stat rankings. The good news is that the Saints have allowed the second highest yards per carry market 5.30, 6th highest defensive ARBY, and most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields,

29:4935.3 DK points per game, a five rushing touchdown game against the Falcons will do that. Regarding Jordan Addison's hamstring injury, O'Connell said Wednesday, consider it minor if it's anything at all, adding that they expect him to practice in a limited capacity Thursday. It sounds as if the team will have its top two wide receivers on the field together against the Saints, which effectively leaves us with a split bearing little value considering Kyler Murray, Jefferson, and Addison have played all of 18 snaps together this season. Murray left after 18 snaps in week 1, then missed week 2, while Jefferson left after 7 snaps in week 3, and then missed week 4. The truth of the matter is we've hardly seen anything regarding how this offense would like to operate in 2026. What we know is that Jefferson is supremely talented, and in a route on nearly every drop-back when healthy, that Addison is a valuable deep threat that can take the lid off opposing defenses, the tight NTJ Hawkinson is largely confined to short area work in his age 29 season, that Jawan Jennings has seen four targets in three healthy games, and that Ty Felden is on hand to soak up situational and packaged snaps.

30:52The Saints have deployed single high alignments at the second highest rate in the league, and have allowed the most fantasy points per route defended from that alignment. Digging a bit further, their defenses functioned with the highest average cushion per stat rankings.com, meaning the highest average distance between the defender and the passcatcher at the snap. If there were ever a match up through which Jefferson were set up to absolutely eat, it would be against soft cover 3 heavy defenses that give him room to operate. That is what he has this week. Since 2024, Jefferson ranks third in first-reed target rate against cover 3 at 41.03%, sixth in targets per route run at 30.71%, 15th in yards per route run at 2.89, and 24th in fantasy points per route run in that split. How New Orleans will try to win? It certainly appears as if the Saints forget that they're trying to win in the first half, waking up after the break as they attempt to make comeback after comeback. We know that is not predictive, and merely describes how things have transpired over their previous 21 games, but we're starting to get a sample size where those observations

31:53start turning into sweeping generalizations in our heads. The Saints are not actively trying to fall behind early, it's simply what has happened at great frequencies since Kalenmore took over the team. So what's the issue here? To me, this is a more issue, in that the general structure of his offense and his play sequencing and situational tendencies lack the ability to return consistent production, leaving the team in a perpetual state of the O-Shit mode. The Saints rank 29th in play action rate due to their heavy shotgun rates, and rank near the middle of the pack in motion rate. Commit those tendencies with poor route structure and layering, and we begin to see the why behind the how with their first half struggles. Since I can point to the casual factors that explain why they continue to fall behind in games, and don't see that changing anytime soon. This is a middling to poor overall team that has the ability to put up points in a hurry once thrown into the O-Shit phase, which for them generally happens to start the second half. Yeah, I have more firmly on hashtag fakesharpwatch. The loss of Travis ETN left the backfield in the hands of Alvin Camera, Kendra Miller,

32:54and undrafted free agent Rookie CJ Donaldson, the three of whom effectively split the available snaps equally in week four. Camera briefly departed that game with a back injury that forced him to mispractice Wednesday, but he did eventually return to finish the game and tack on his second rushing score against the Falcons. Camera saw 50% of the team's backfield opportunities on a 38% snap rate a week ago, with Miller at 32.1% of the opportunities on 26% of the snaps, and Donaldson playing more empty snaps with 17.9% of the opportunities on 38% of the snaps. There is very little upside considering the team's unwillingness to fully commit to a 31-year-old back in Camera in the absence of ETN. The Vikings ranked seventh in defensive ARBY, and 14th in yards allowed per carry, presenting one of the more past funnel matchups in the league when you also consider they have allowed the fewest DK points per game to opposing backfields at only 15.2. Tyler Schuck has seen a precipitous drop in efficiency across the board when pressured this season, following to a 48.1% completion rate, 6.22 yards per attempt.

33:55A 58.9% pass rating, and 0.27% fantasy points per drop back in that split. Those numbers when you filter for the blitz are 67.7% completion rate, 6.83 yards per attempt, 90.8% pass rating, and 0.3% fantasy points per drop back. That is to be expected considering a modest 34.2% pressure rate when blitzed. That said, pressure rate is something that appears likely to increase against a Vikings team leading the league in pressure rate at a gaudy 42.5%. Schuck for Schuck to be forced to get the ball out quick or be subject to increasing pressure. Crystal Lave, 29% targets per route run, and Devon Valey, 22% targets per route run, have been the primary outlets against the blitz, with a Lave in particular the primary safety blanket. He's at 2.86 yards per route run and 0.53 fantasy points per route run against the blitz. Bryce Lance, 77.8% anti-denjuan gennings, 70.7% are the two other pass catchers in a route on more than 70% of the team's drop-backs this season.

34:57Lakeliest Game Flow. In 21 games since the start of the 2025 regular season, the Saints have trailed by an average of 7.4 points at the half. It's starting to become me more the at this point, but the Saints continue to start slow. In fact, they have led at the half in only three of those 21 games since Kellin Moore took over his head coach. They led by three in week 16 of last year against the Jets. They led by three in week 10 of last year against the Panthers, and they led by two in week 5 last season against the Giants. In the first four games of 2026, the Saints have trailed by an average of 8.75 points at half time. Considering everything previously discussed, the most likely Game Flow involves the Saints falling behind, forcing them into increased pass rates and higher predictability, exposing shock to the defense with the highest blitz rate and highest pressure rates this season. While note here, shock is tied with Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rogers, and Justin Herbert for the most sacks taken when blitzed with 7. I see light, Vikings at Saints. Game setup.

35:57Vikings at 4.0 despite ranking 27th in EPA with one total offensive touchdown across three games. Saints have trailed by an average of 8.7 points at the half through four games under Kellin Moore. Vikings path. Brian Flores' defense is the clearest path to victory, leading the league in pressure rate at 42.5%. Justin Jefferson draws a soft cover three heavy Saints defense with the league's highest average cushion at the snap. Saints path. Alvin Camera has a back injury and missed Wednesday's practice. Backfield split three ways after Travis ETN's loss limits upside. Chris Olave is Tyler Schucks' primary safety blanket against the blitz, with a 0.53 fantasy points per outrun in that split. Likeliest Game Flow. Saints fall behind early again, forcing increased pass rates and exposing shock to Minnesota's league high blitz rate. Back under dress is tied for the most sacks when blitzed this season with seven. Browns at Steelers. Kick off Sunday, October 11th, 1 p.m. Eastern, over under 40. Game Overview.

36:58By High Low. Running back Breeze Hall has a quad injury and White receiver Adonai Mitchell has a finger injury, both have yet to practice through Thursday and appear headed for another absence. Titan Mason Taylor has a thumb injury but practiced in full both practices and should return from a two game absence. White receiver Tim Patrick was designated to return from IR and practiced in full both days this week. He could make his return to the active game day roster against the Browns. Browns guard Tevin Jenkins remained sideline through Thursday but center Elgerton Jenkins got in two full practices as he returns from a concussion. How Cleveland will try to win? The Browns are more pass-bounced in the new season than they have been in recent years. Ranked 10th and pass rate over expectation and 4th and PROE plus averaging just over 29 pass attempts per game despite ranking 27th and play volume at 57.3 plays per game. The offensive-minded Todd Monkin inherited a true cow pie team that has completely outperformed preseason expectations currently tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North at a surprising 3-1 record.

37:59That said, it hasn't all been Roses and Rainbows. The Browns are currently the only team with a winning record and negative point differential, having been blown out 34-10 by the Jaguars to open the season while winning three games by no more than four points. Still, Monkin has accomplished that with the most enigmatic quarterback in the NFL and one of the youngest skill position cores in the league. Quinshaw Judkins ranks 8th in Opportunity Share at a borderline elite 78.1% clip, averaging 18.75 opportunities per game. The Browns low play volume is most evident in the disparity between Judkins 8th ranked Mark in Opportunity Share and 4th ranked Mark in Opportunity's per game. He has topped out at 18 carries through 4 weeks but has hit 20 opportunities or more in consecutive games entering this week. And then there's the efficiency. Judkins is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and his score just 1 touchdown. Behind an offensive line ranked 22nd in ARBY. The matchup is middling on paper against the Juds team ranked 23rd in defensive ARBY

38:59while allowing a 22nd ranked 4.46 yards per carry. Rahim Sanders is the only other back to see more than 5 opportunities in a strict change of pace role. Rookie Casey Konsepcion has grown into a slot plus role, one that had him in a route on every dropback a week ago. His 58.9% slot rate leads the team but his growing role has meant he is more than the simple slot receiver he started his rookie season as. Konsepcion is joined by fellow Rookie Denzel Boston and 2nd year tight end Harold Fanon as the only pass catchers in near every down roles. With Jerry Judie at a 63.8% route rate, the only other pass catcher in a route on greater than 40% of the team's dropbacks. Judie made public remarks expressing his concerns with his current role, sparking potential trade speculation ahead of week 5. Boston's lofty 16.7 average depth of target and big playability had left him with the highest weekly ceiling until Konsepcion's role growth, the ladder of whom tallied 17 targets in the previous two games. Volume appears likely to remain difficult to come by for all parties considering the

39:59more reserved nature of the Cleveland offense, leaving all three primarily as touchdown or bust options. How New York will try to win? The Aaron Glenn led Jets continued to be a defense first team that derives its identity from that side of the ball. As we've talked about in previous weeks, they finally have an offensive coordinator that provides the structure required to unleash the aggression of call to pawn, which can and has provided value in the right game environment. That said, a game against the Browns is a very different setup than the one we targeted two weeks ago against the Lions, meaning it is far more likely that the Jets are able to continue to operate via a more methodical approach offensively deeper into this game, placing a relative cap on the upside of both their offense and the individual pieces. Glenn simply has his hand in how the team is run on both sides of the ball and would prefer to outmaneuver opponents as opposed to going out and taking games. Braylon Allen played all but two offensive snaps in the first game without Resol, handling 16 opportunities on just 32 offensive plays, the fourth fewest since the NFL merger. This is, without a doubt, a workhorse situation.

41:02The Browns ranked 25th in defensive ARBY and 26th in yards allowed per carry at 4.71, making this a solid spot on paper. That said, the Jets offensive line is more liability than strength, responsible for a 25th ranked ARBY, behind which Jets backs have rushed the second fewest yards per carry this season at 3.37. The bigger issue is touchdown equity for a team averaging just 19 points per game. There are two interesting personnel situations that could heavily influence who is on the field and who is in a route. One, Titan Mason Taylor should return from a two game absence, and two, veteran wide receiver Tim Patrick could make his season debut after starting the year on injured reserve. Those are notable due to the run we've seen from rookie Titan Kenyan Sadiq and former undrafted free agent wide receiver Isaiah Williams. Williams has been a near every down starter opposite Garrett Wilson the previous two weeks without Adonai Mitchell in a route at an 89.1% clip. The Jets ranked 17th and 11th personnel rate at 60.0% this season, making it more likely than not we see Williams kick back inside, while Patrick man's the perimeter opposite

42:06Wilson should Patrick make his debut, but we're likely to see both in routes in the 70-80 percent range. Taylor's return is equally as interesting for what it is likely to do to Sadiq's route rate. He really doesn't have any slop to give considering he was only at a 59.4% route rate without Taylor in the lineup. The Browns lead the league in man coverage rate after curiously running out of zone at an increased rate in week 1. Wilson has an elite 0.92 fantasy points per route run against man coverage in 2026, ranked 7th in the league, and would be the only pass catcher of interest. Likeliest Game Flow This game pits two teams that try and control the game environments they are in. The Jets do it through their defense and have an offense that can't awaken when called upon while the Browns do it with their methodical offense and aggressive man-heavy defense designed to generate disruption. The fact that this game is primarily a middling on middling matchup on both sides of the ball likely leaves the game environment with little upside, although there do appear to be a few spots to look for potential outlier scoring based on expected volume.

43:07Furthermore, there appears to be little room for outlier type tributaries to develop, keeping the game environment more tightly congested about its median. I see light Browns at Jets. Game setup Breeze Hall and Ed and I Mitchell appear headed for another absence in week 5. Mason Taylor should return, Tim Patrick could make his season debut off IR. Cleveland Path Quincheon Judkins holds elite 78.1% opportunity share, but just 3.0 yards per carry behind a weak line. Casey Concepcion has emerged with 17 targets over two games, but all Browns' pass catchers remain touchdown or bust options in a low volume offense. New York Jets Path Braille and Allen is a true workhorse without hall, handling 16 opportunities on just 32 plays last week. Sarah Wilson is the only pass catcher of interest against Cleveland's league leading man coverage rate, posting an elite 0.92 fantasy points per route run versus man. Likeliest game flow. Middling on middling matchup on both sides leaves the game environment with little upside. Tight distribution around the median with limited room for outlier scoring tributaries.

44:11Colts at Steelers Kickoff Sunday October 11th 1pm Eastern Over Under 44 Game Overview By High Low White receiver Michael Pittman has a foot injury and has been ruled out for week 5 and reportedly is looking at a multi-game absence. Running back Rico Dauwell has a toe injury, but returned to a limited session Wednesday and could return from a two game absence to face the Colts. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Jamel Dean were absent from practice Wednesday. The Colts maintain a relatively clean bill of health away from the heel and ankle injury that cost White receiver Alec Pierce most of the season. White receiver Keenan Allen returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing week 4. Don't look now, but Aaron Rogers has the sixth deepest average depth of target at 9.4 in his first year back with Mike McCarthy. These are two of the bottom five offenses in past CPA per play. How Indianapolis will try to win? After picking up their first win since week 10 of the 2025 season in week 3, the Colts followed it up with another dub against the commies in London.

45:12They did so with no drives gaining more than 52 yards and just 257 total yards of offense on 13 possessions. The loss of Alec Pierce is proving to be a massive issue for a Colts team now without a way to stress opponents in the vertical, effectively forcing them into March the field drives that require down-to-down execution and consistency to move the football effectively. Exacerbating those tendencies is the fact that so much of their offenses can find to the interior areas of the field, requiring elite play sequencing and variability to keep opposing defenses honest. So far, head coach Shane Stuykin has had one really good game in that regard, the loss to the Chiefs, one above average game the win over the Texans, and two subpar outings, the loss to the Ravens, and the win over the commanders. Ball security also remains a massive issue, as the team has now turned the ball over in the first quarter of all four games. Because of that Stuykin's mentality of throw to score run to win, has not yet surfaced this season. Jonathan Taylor saw a low for him 75% of the available backfield opportunities against

46:14the commanders in London, but saw the first six opportunities in the first quarter, four drives but only 13 offensive plays on drives that went fumble, three in out, three in out, three in out. Framed differently, Taylor saw six of the first 13 total opportunities before Seth McGowan saw a touch and still ended with 24 opportunities, 20 carries and four targets. Taylor has now seen 23 or more opportunities in every game, and three or four targets in every game this season, while also scoring multiple touchdowns in three or four games. He is the centerpiece of this offense, and is now just seven total opportunities behind Jameer Gibbs for the league lead. While we are nowhere near the range where I'm looking at ownership, I get the feeling he will come in rather modestly owned, considering the makeup of this slate, and there are very few backs in the league with 103 plus upside, he is one of them. The pure rushing matchup is middling on paper against a Steelers defense ranked 17th in defensive ARBY, while allowing 4.37 yards per carry, 21st in the league, but he gains considerable upside in the red zone due to the structure of a Pittsburgh defense with

47:17an underperforming nose tackle in Keanu Benton. We have only a one game sample of what to expect with the current personnel heading into week five. Keenan Allen returned to a limited session Wednesday, after missing week four and appears set to return from a one game absence. Alec Pierce aggravated his heel and ankle injury in week two, leaving only week three with the personnel expected against the Steelers. In that game, Titan Tyler Warren led the team with a 90.2% route participation, followed by Josh Downs at 78%, Laquan Treadwell also at 78%, and Allen at 73.2%, with no other pass catcher in a route greater than the 65.9% of running back Jonathan Taylor. This is a highly concentrated offense as far as personnel diversification is considered. Allen leads the team in targets per route run at a lofty 0.27, followed by Warren at 0.23, Downs at 0.22, and Taylor at 0.17, with Treadwell effectively a downfield sacrificial X. These zone heavy Steelers, 4th ranked 81.5%, present a solid on paper matchup for Warren

48:17and Taylor, the two backs that lead the team in underlying metrics through the air against zone coverages this season. Downs has been downright atrocious against zone while Allen's metrics have been somewhat uncharacteristically modest in that split to begin the season. How Pittsburgh will try to win? The Steelers ranked near the top of the league in pass rate over expectation, but continue to operate via modest pace, 18th ranked situation neutral pace of play leading to a ninth ranked PROE plus value, per stat rankings.com, a metric designed to combine the effects of both PROE and pace of play. The sudden shift to heavier emphasis on the aerial game under head coach Mike McCarthy has left the Steelers averaging the sixth most pass attempts per game at 38.8, and they will now be without one of their top aerial threats in Michael Pittman for the foreseeable future. The defensive game plan has remained rather sticky through the change in head coach, with an overall game plan designed a forced disruption via organic pressure up front. That said, they have increased their zone in two high rates significantly this season, which I suppose makes sense considering the offseason contract saga which OE Porter

49:20Jr., one of the league's top lockdown corners. The Pittsburgh offensive line has performed much better on the ground than they have in pass protection. That said, Steelers backs have the eighth highest stuff rate at 19%. The pure rushing matchup is middling to solid on paper against a cold defense ranked 21st in defensive ARBY, while allowing 4.34 yards per carry, with the biggest influence on potential fantasy upside, coming through the level of health of Rico Doudal, who has missed the previous two games with a toe injury. He returned to a limited session Wednesday and matched that level of participation Thursday, keeping the Dora Jarr for a potential return to the game day roster. Jalen Warren saw 44 total opportunities, an average of 22 per game, in the two games without Doudal, but averaged only 15.5 per game in the two weeks with Doudal active, while Doudal averaged 11 per game himself. That's roughly a 50% increase in workload for Warren, pending the status of Doudal, and would give him GPP viability for the week 5 main slate. We've at least had a glimpse into what the offense will look like in the absence of

50:21Michael Pittman, who previously missed week 2. In that game, Roman Wilson maintained the primary slot role, while rookie Jeremy Bernard was used primarily as a perimeter receiver opposite DK Metcalf, with Wilson's route participation jumping up to 84.8%, compared to 48.8% in the three games with Pittman. That is an interesting setup considering the cult's function as an inside funnel defense, one that plays elevated rates of man coverage and holds one of the top perimeter corner duos in the league and Sawskardonnay and Charvary's Ward. Justin Wally operates as their primary slot corner from Nickel, allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage route, while Wilson holds solid marks against man, 0.60 fantasy points per route run, ranked 25th, and single high, he's 0.65 fantasy points per route run, and ranked 14th this season. Metcalf should be tangled with the top two corners the most while Bernard's middling 8.5 average depth of target leaves a lot to be desired. On that note, Wilson's 15.38 dot and the propensity of the cult's defense to give up chunk gains over the deep middle of the field, pair well together to generate a solid upside

51:24profile for a wide receiver priced under 4K on DK. Expect Pat Fryermuth's 64.9% route participation through four weeks to continue losing snaps and routes to Darnell Washington in a loose time-share at tight end. Likeliest Game Flow This game brings an interesting setup between two teams that are trying to win in vastly different ways. The cults are largely forced to march the field and string together drives, while the Steelers are one of the most down-field aggressive teams in the league through four games. That said, both offenses have been amongst the least efficient in the league through four games, with the cults also significantly struggling with turnovers. What that means is we're left with a game with a rather wide range of potential outcomes, at least for how the scoring is concerned. I wouldn't be shocked to see the cults jump out to an early lead in Rye Jonathan Taylor for the rest of the game, and I wouldn't be shocked to see both offenses struggle to move the football consistently. The case for the upside clearly rests with the former scenario, in which case Taylor carries some of the highest raw ceiling on the slate, also bringing Roman Wilson into the forefront of potential point per dollar upside.

52:27Nobody truly jumps off the page in the latter scenario. I see light, cults at Steelers. Game setup Bottom five offenses in past EPA per play meet in a wide outcome low-floor matchup. Michael Pittman ruled out multiple games, Rico Dotto limited but tracking toward return. Colts Path Jonathan Taylor has 23 plus opportunities every game and red zone upside against Benton's struggles at nose tackle. Tyler Warren and Taylor profile best in Pittsburgh's zone heavy scheme, Downs has been poor against zone. Steelers Path Roman Wilson steps into an 85% route role with Pittman out, and pairs well with Colts deep middle vulnerability at a sub 4k price. Jalen Warren sees roughly 50% more work without doubt, Dotto's status directly governs Warren's GPP viability. Likeliest game flow Wide outcome range spans a Taylor lead cults blow out to a mutual offensive slog. Upside scenario features Taylor with slate level ceiling and Wilson is a top point per dollar play. DFS plus angle

53:28Jonathan Taylor likely modest ownership despite 103 plus ceiling, slate construction may suppress his exposure. Roman Wilson offers leverage at minimum price with a 15.38 dot against the Colts defense vulnerable over the deep middle. Enjoy the game breakdowns. Go to one week season dot com and become a subscriber to gain access to in depth analysis, strategy interpretations and more to help you bring your daily fantasy football game to the next level. The Giants at the commanders kick off Sunday October 11th at 1 p.m. Eastern with an over under of 42 game overview by Mike Johnson. Washington has yet to play a snap from a positive game script this season. The Giants lead the NFC East with a 3 in 1 record despite dealing with injuries and setbacks over the season's first month. The commander's defense has been a bit of a past funnel unit so far this season performing

54:31above average against the run while being susceptible to big plays through the air. Washington expects quarterback Jaden Daniels to return to the field after a two and a half game absence. Commander's wide receiver, Terry McLoren, is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury. How New York will try to win? The Giants lead the NFC East through four weeks despite having many obstacles to overcome along the way. Their last two victories have been less impressive, coming against the hapless Titans in poor weather and at home against the Cardinals. Nevertheless, wins are wins. The Giants get another solid match up in week five as they travel down the coast to face the commanders, who are one in three and coming back from a trip to Europe. New York wants to run the football first and foremost, with coach John Harbow in charge and having lost Jackson Dart for the season.

55:32However, they started to loosen the reins on James Winston a bit in week four as he had his best passing game to date. Winston looked awful in relief of Dart against the Rams, then had to play an awful weather against the Titans. The week four performance for Winston should give some confidence for the Giants to let him throw the ball more going forward. When he does throw the ball, look for Tidend Isaiah likely to be his primary target in this match up. The commanders gave up big games to Tidend's Dallas Goddard, Jake Ferguson and AJ Barner to start the season. Likely ranks second among all players in target share through four weeks at 31.3%. Make no mistake about it. Likely is an integral part of this offense and the team is not afraid to use him in all areas of the field. The dynamics of week two, Dart injury and week three, weather, made a lot of people forget about Likely's dominant week one performance, but he racked up 12 targets in week four,

56:36something that happened somewhat quietly because it resulted in only a modest box score. After Likely, wide receiver Malik neighbors will also be very involved and is coming off his best game of the season. The commander's defense is much more susceptible to the past than the run, so we can expect another 7-10 high-value targets for neighbors this week. New York's preference would be to be run heavy, but Washington is much stronger against the run than the past, and the Giants have a couple of strong receiving options in neighbors and likely to turn to. Expect the nature of the match up and return of Daniels to push the Giants to a balanced play calling approach, rather than a conservative one. Cam's Catebo will lead the Giants backfield again in this match up, with a couple of other backs mixing in as well. How Washington will try to win? We continue to have moving parts for this Washington offense, but the carousel seems to be trending in a good direction in this one. They will welcome the return of franchise quarterback Jaden Daniels to the field after

57:40a two and a half game absence from a dislocated elbow. He will play with a brace on his non-throwing arm to protect the elbow, and will likely run less, with the passing game designed with a focus of getting the ball out of his hands quickly to limit the amount of hits he takes. Nonetheless, his presence changes the dynamics of the offense, and at the very least should allow them to extend plays and be more efficient when the initial play breaks down. Washington's offense continues to be relatively easy to project, regardless of who is under center. He will be without Terry McClure in again this week, leaving Stefan Diggs as their top wide receiver, but also creating a four-man rotation of receivers all playing over 50% of the snaps and under 70%. Diggs is the de facto alpha, while Diamy Brown, Traylon Berks and Rookie Antonio Williams will also mix in. Brown and Berks each hit on a deep shot in week four, but it was Diggs and Williams who were the primary options with nine and eight targets respectively.

58:42Washington also quietly welcomed back Titan, Chig on Conquo in week four after a two-game absence with a hamstring injury. Now that Daniels is back under center, on Conquo being more involved would make sense with McClure in an active, and Daniels having a high target rate to Titan's throughout his career. On the ground, Washington involved four running backs in week four. Good luck figuring this thing out. Jocorri Croskey Merritt operates as the primary early down back. The first three weeks, things were split evenly between him and Rashad White. White missed week four, and his role was split between three players. The team expects White shoulder to return this week, but waived Rookie running back K-Tron Allen and seems to intend to have veteran edition Austin Echler involved. The Giants run defense is nothing to be scared of, and Washington should have some success on the ground, but this primarily matters only in the sense of it giving them more manageable down in distant scenarios.

59:45Likeliest Game Flow This profiles as a competitive game between two exceedingly average teams. The commanders won victory this season came against the Seahawks, and they needed a three-to-zero turnover advantage in order to squeak that one out. The Giants narrowly beat the Titans and Cardinals at home, and have sustained significant injuries on offense and defense since their impressive week one win over the Cowboys. This week's matchup with James Winston seems to fit well with Washington's apparent need to win the turnover battle to win a game. On the flip side, Washington's defense is most susceptible through the air, and the Giants passing game is quietly rounding into form. The 41.5 game total on this one feels a little bit light as the commander's offense should get a big boost from Daniels, and the Giants defense has not been great. While the Giants offense also seems to be rounding into form, and Washington has allowed 30 plus points in three straight games.

1:00:47Expect things to stay relatively close throughout the game, with the Giants more likely to generate explosive plays that allow them to build a lead, while Washington's offensive success might be more consistent and lead to longer drives. Inner Circle Light Game setup Jaden Daniels returns from a two and a half game absence. Terry McLoren is out again. 41.5 total feels light given Washington has allowed 30 plus points in three straight. New York Path Isaiah likely ranks second among all players in target share at 31.3%, facing a tight and friendly defense. Malik neighbors should see seven to ten high-value targets against a pass-funnel commander's unit. Washington Path Daniels will wear a brace and likely run less, with quick release passing concepts expected. Stefan Diggs leads a four-man wide receiver rotation. Cheg on Conqo could see added work with McLoren out.

1:01:51Echliest Game Flow Giants passing game is more likely to generate explosive plays and build a lead. Commanders offense projects for longer steadier drives boosted by Daniels return. DFS plus angle Isaiah likely is a top-tighten option with eight plus target upside in a premium matchup. Neighbors offers a low ownership pivot at the same salary as Michael Wilson, pairing well with Detroit Arizona Cours. The Bears at the Packers kick off Sunday October 11th at 1 p.m. Eastern, with an over-under of 45.5. Game Overview By Mike Johnson Chicago has a three-and-one record and has had a different starting quarterback in all three victories this season. Jason Begent is expected to get the knot again this week. Chicago's defense has performed well the last three weeks, but has been facing struggling

1:02:54offenses that lack explosiveness. Green Bay's inability to run the football drastically affects how they are forced to call games on both sides of the ball. The Packers lost Starline-backer Eger and Cooper for the season in last week's win over the box, further exposing an already struggling defense. Chicago's balanced offense features a one-two punch at running back, and their passing game has started to feature their three primary pass catchers. How Chicago will try to win? The Bears' offense is built around their running game, with everything else falling into place from there. Last week against the Jets, they ran the ball 50 times while running nearly 90 offensive plays. For the season, Chicago ranks 28th in pass rate during a neutral script, with only 48% of their plays being passes when the game is close. The offense then builds their passing game outwards from there, with the third largest,

1:03:55with the third highest play action rate in the league, behind only the chiefs and sea hawks. When you look at the Packers' season-long run defense statistics, they look solid. However, with a deeper dive, we can see that they have benefited from facing inefficient running games from Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and the Jets. The one time they faced a very strong rushing offense was the Falcons, who absolutely tore them apart on national TV. Now the Bears, one of the league's top rushing off-enses, gets to square up with the Packers after they lost arguably their top defensive player, Eger and Cooper for the season. Tyson Badgent is someone that Bears' head coach Ben Johnson believes in. The team refused to trade him to interested teams in the off season, and gave him a very good extension last year by back up quarterback standards. They also elected to start Badgent in week 4, after Case Kingdom looked terrific in a

1:04:55week 3 win over the Eagles. The easy decision from a PR standpoint would have been to roll with Kingdom as the hot hand, adding the keys to Badgent says a lot about what the team thinks of him. He rewarded them with a solid and efficient outing in the week 4 win over the Jets. Badgent completed over 70% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. After a slow start to the season for their primary weapons, Badgent seemed to begin to unlock the trio of Romeo Duneze, Luther Burton and Colston Loveland. Each of them had their best game of the season in week 4, with Badgent under center, while the trio combined for a 65% target share. Expect more of the same against an unimposing Packer's secondary. The Packers rank 5th in Blitz rate, but 22nd in pressure rate this season, as they have tried desperately to generate pressure to no avail. The Bears' running game should open up all sorts of chunk play opportunities through the

1:05:59air, with play action that takes advantage of Green Bay being forced to dedicate resources to try to stop the run. We should expect to see the most explosive Bears passing game we have seen since week 1. How Green Bay will try to win? This section is relatively easy to understand. The Packers have to throw the ball to move it. While they won't abandon the running game completely, they are highly unlikely to have any degree of sustained or consistent success on the ground thanks to a depleted offensive line and backfield. The Packers rank 30nd, dead last, in EPA per rush, as well as total rushing EPA. At first glance, there looks like a glimmer of hope for Green Bay against a Bears defense that allows the 4th highest yards per rush attempt this season, but that statistic is misleading. The Bears are only facing 20.8 rush attempts per game. The second lowest number in the league, which is primarily driven by the fact that they have

1:07:00played with big leads in all three of their victories. The per carry numbers for Bears' opponents are inflated by game scripts where they were incentivized to play softer to prevent allowing big plays. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is nothing if not stubborn, and at the very least we can expect him to open the game trying to stay balanced. As things progress, however, the Packers will have no choice but to open things up, and when they do we have a pretty good idea where they will be going with the football. Jordan Love has attempted 154 passes through four weeks, and 61% of them have been directed at the trio of Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft. While Watson has had the biggest stat line so far, Golden leads the team in targets for the season, and Kraft has seen 15 targets in the last two games as he works his way back from last year's knee injury. The three have combined for relatively equal roles across the season,

1:08:01with Kraft working primarily in the shorter areas of the field, while Golden and Watson have been targeted downfield often. The Bears blitz at the sixth highest rate in the league, something that the Packers will be used to as three of their four opponents so far have ranked in the top eight in the league in that same statistic. The Packers' offensive line has been beaten up all season, and the Packers will need to find a way to get back on track for consistent early down success. Kraft's role should continue to grow, but we can also look for Watson's role to bounce back after a down week of only three targets against the box. Likeliest Game Flow. The Packers Inter Week 5 with a two and two record that is perhaps the most misleading record in football through the first month of the season. The Packers had a fourth quarter meltdown for the ages against Carson Wins in week one, and got absolutely steamrolled at home by the Falcons in week three. Their two victories were a gift from the Jets in week two, and simply not being worse

1:09:05than the Jalen Daniels led bucks in week four. When you look at each team by the quarterbacks they have faced this season, the Packers list of Wins, Geno Smith, Michael Pennex Jr, and Jalen Daniels is tough to compete with as far as least in posing. This reality is reflected in the fact that Green Bay is a home underdog. The Bears will be patient and methodical early in the game, while Green Bay is likely to be patient and stubborn. This is an interesting matchup between two defenses who rank near the top of the league in Blitzring, which opens both teams up to more chances for explosive pass plays. The Bears are likely to control this game as their likelihood of sustaining drives is much stronger thanks to their stronger running game and stronger run defense. As such they are likely to be in control, but should also be pushed much more by a capable Green Bay passing offense, something the Bears have faced only once this season. This game is the closest we have seen

1:10:07for Chicago to their week one shootout with Carolina. You could easily argue that this Packers defense is less equipped to stop their running game than Carolina was, and the Packers offense is also the best that Chicago has faced since that game. This is quietly one of the more explosive environments on the slate. Inner Circle Light. Game setup. Bears are three in one with Tyson Badgent expected to start again after efficient week four outing. Packers lost Edger and Cooper for the season, further weakening a struggling defense. Chicago Path. Bears rushing attack should exploit a Packers run defense that crumbled against Atlanta's strong ground game. Odunze, burden and loveland combined for a 65% target share under Badgent and face an unimposing secondary. Green Bay Path. Packers ranked dead last in rushing EPA and must lean on love and the passing

1:11:10game to move the ball. Golden, Watson, and Kraft command 61% of loves targets with relatively balanced roles across the trio. Likeliest Gameflow. Bears control tempo through a stronger running game, but Green Bay's passing attack pushes back more than prior opponents. Explosive environment resemble Chicago's week one shootout, both defenses blitz heavily, opening chunk play windows. DFS plus angle. Jordan Love is an elite GPP option with a clear path to 300 plus yards and three or four touchdowns in a forced aggressive spot. Badgent remains very cheap and is a strong double stack candidate alongside burden, Odunze, or loveland in a game stack built with Detroit, Arizona. The Broncos at the Chargers kick off Sunday, October 11th at 4.05 pm Eastern with an over under of 41.5. This writeup is unavailable but can be found on the

1:12:15edge at oneweekseason.com. Enjoy the game breakdowns. Go to oneweekseason.com and become a subscriber to gain access to in-depth analysis, strategy interpretations, and more to help you bring your daily fantasy football game to the next level. The Lions at the Cardinals kick off Sunday, October 11th at 4.25 pm Eastern with an over under of 54.5. Game Overview by Mike Johnson. Detroit's defense has been unable to stop anyone this season, particularly through the air. The Lions are last in the league and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Arizona's defense has allowed their last three opponents to score 30 plus points. We have two pressure-sensitive quarterbacks facing two defenses that are struggling to create

1:13:16pressure. Through four weeks, every team's final score in a Lions game has been 24 or more points with six of eight scoring 30 plus. Only two teams have scored less than 24 points in a game in Cardinals games this season. The Chargers, Awful, and the Cardinals against Seattle's elite defense. How Detroit will try to win. Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose. At this point in the season, the Lions have absolutely zero trust in their defense. This week, they are playing a dome game where they face a capable and competent offense that they are unlikely to neutralize given their current state. The Lions also have a week six buy on the horizon, where changes could easily be made. It is easy for us to suggest adjustments when we watch the games, but there are a lot of dynamics that go into changing concepts and approaches mid-season that are tough to do on the fly.

1:14:19The buy week will provide that, but for now, the Lions are just going to have to send it. Detroit has played four games, with eight team scores so far, four for the Lions and four for the Lions opponents. All eight team scores have been 24 or more points so far, six of the eight being 30 points or higher. Meanwhile, only two teams have scored less than 24 points in a game in Cardinals games this season. The first instance was the Chargers offense in week one, scoring only 14 points. We now know that the Chargers are inept defensively. The other was the Cardinals against Seattle's elite defense in week two. Basically, we know that this game is going to have points racking up from both teams. The Lions know that as well, and we know that they know. Detroit's offense will revolve primarily around all world running back Jamir Gibbs and receiver M and Ross St. Brown.

1:15:20Expect Gibbs to have more success on the ground this week than he did against the Panthers Rejuvenated Defense in week four. Also expect the Lions to move ARSB all over the field and use him at all levels in a similar fashion to what the Seahawks did in week two on route to a massive game for Jackson Smith and Njigba. The X factors here for the Lions are the rest of their playmakers. Jamison Williams and Isaac Tislaw provide very real downfield threats. Tislaw is coming off his career best game, while Williams has yet to score a touchdown this season. I would expect one of them to post a big game in this spot, as the Cardinals put a lot of focus on ARSB and Gibbs. As the Cardinals just got lit up downfield by Jamies Winston and Malik neighbors. Tide in Sam LaPorta is having a nice season as well and appears recovered from last season's back injury. He provides a complimentary intermediate threat to what ARSB does. LaPorta and Williams have played at least 80% of the snaps in every game. Well, Tislaw has played 68% or more of the

1:16:25snaps in every game but one and just played 82% against the Panthers in week four. The Lions will aggressively hunt points from the outset of this game and may actually be extra aggressive early after playing from behind in their two losses and playing from ahead in their two wins. How Arizona will try to win! Arizona will be balanced and spread the ball around in this matchup but has solid matchups all over the place. Their running game is solid enough to move the ball but has not provided much in the way of explosive plays. Tyler Alger and Rookie Jeremiah Love continue to split the work and that appears to be likely to continue after Love's week four post game comments about being tired and having injury issues he is dealing with. The Lions defense is solid against the run but not the dominant unit we saw in past seasons that sometimes forced opponents to be pass heavy. Arizona should be able to stay somewhat committed to the run as they'll move the ball at least in a reasonable, if not explosive, fashion.

1:17:30The Cardinals passing game does have two problems for the Lions that they don't seem to have an answer for. Panthers wide receiver Tetra Roe Mcmillan destroyed Detroit last week and was a matchup nightmare. Michael Wilson has seen 30 targets in the last two weeks and is going to get peppered again in this spot with Lions cornerbacks taking turns as his whipping boy. Likewise, the Lions have been torched by tight ends. Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant had solid games in week one against Detroit. Then Dalton Kincaid and Kenyon Sadiq dominated them in weeks two and three. Carolina doesn't use their tight ends much and didn't need to go anywhere else with Mcmillan running the show. McBride is arguably the best receiving tight end in the game right now and is set to cook this overmatched Lions team with no one who can match up with him. The leftovers for the passing game will go to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kendrick Bourne. This could be the game MHJ Post-A respectable line

1:18:32as the Lions will have their hands full with McBride and Wilson. Expect a similar offensive outlook for the Cardinals to week three against the 49ers when they racked up yards and points in a conservative high volume way. The difference this week is the Lions might also give them some explosive plays. Wheels up, popcorn ready. Likeliest game flow. These offenses ranked 11th and 12th in pass rate over expectation. 13th and 16th in neutral situation pace. 7th and 12th in no huddle rate. The defenses ranked 28th and 30th in yards per play allowed while the offenses ranked 6th and 7th in plays per game. The ingredients are all here for a shootout in the desert. Both offenses have relied on volume but appear to be in store for efficiency bumps in these matchups. Neither team can reasonably trust their defense with a modest lead so they both have to stay aggressive throughout.

1:19:34Over the last two seasons the main things that we have been able to count on have been Jacobi Brissett slinging the football and the Lions breeding shootouts. This week we are blessed with the joining of those two forces which is in line to give us possibly one of the highest scoring games of the season. There is of course a chance that the first half of this game moves a little bit slower than we would like as multiple Lions game this season have and the Cardinals are not naturally an uber aggressive offense. Regardless of how the first half goes any scenario likely leads to things really getting dialed up in the second half. So the real question is are things calm early before breaking loose into a really fun game or does the scoring pop off immediately and we see one of the crazier games of the season. Inner Circle Light Game setup Scoring environment all eight Lions teams scores this season have been 24 plus points 6 hitting 30 plus. Defensive weakness Detroit ranks last and fantasy points allowed to

1:20:38quarterbacks wide receivers and tight ends. Detroit path. Gibbs and ARSB are anchor the offense with ARSB deployed at all levels in a smash matchup. Jamison Williams and Tisla present downfield threats as Arizona focuses on ARSB and Gibbs. Arizona path McBride and Wilson carry volume driven floors against a Lions defense torched by tight ends all season. MHJ has a depressed price and downfield role that could finally produce a respectable line. Likeliest game flow. Shootout ingredients both offenses top 12 and pass rate over expectation against bottom three defenses in yards per play. Second half escalation is likely regardless of early tempo as neither team can trust a modest lead. DFS plus angle golf and brisket are double and triple stack candidates across at least half of builds in this

1:21:40environment. ARSB is the top receiver on the slate, pairing one of ARSB or Gibbs on every roster is the baseline approach. The 49ers at the Seahawks kick off Sunday, October 11th at 4.25 pm Eastern with an over under of 46. Game Overview by Mike Johnson. Control of the NFC West lies in the balance for this early season match up between two contenders. Immanuel Wilson seemed to seize control of the Seahawks backfield with his impressive week four performance. This game features a match up of the league's most efficient offense San Francisco on a per play basis and the league's most efficient defense Seattle. San Francisco will be without the services of fullback Tio Yuzek, whose versatility and skill set is much more important than the average fan will realize.

1:22:40How San Francisco will try to win? The 49ers have become a more past centric offense this season with running back Christian McCaffrey entering the twilight of his career and Brock Purdy entering his prime. San Francisco has operated as an offensive scheme that focuses on their running game as the backbone and builds everything out from there for basically the entire tenure of head coach Kyle Channahan. This season however the 49ers ranked second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through four weeks and have been thriving while doing so. San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per play while ranking second behind only the bills in points per game. This week's match up against the Seahawks will be one of unstoppable force meets immovable object as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play for any team in the NFL. After struggling mightily from much of the game against the Broncos in week four the 49ers will have their hands full with this challenge.

1:23:43Seattle's pass rush is ferocious ranking fifth in quarterback pressure rate while having the fifth lowest blitz rate in the league. These stats and how they correlate for a team tell the story of past rushing efficiency. The Seahawks are generating elite levels of pressure while not having to sacrifice coverage defenders. This in a nutshell is what makes them so hard to move the ball against. Seattle also boasts an above average run defense with the chargers in week four as the only opponent to average over four yards per carry in a game this season. Seattle swarms the football and tackles well limiting opponents rushing ability while generating pressure and having opportunistic defensive backs who make plays against distress quarterbacks. The Seahawks play the least man coverage of any team in the league allowing their secondary to keep their eyes on the quarterback and make plays on the ball. The elite pressure their front four creates does not allow receivers the

1:24:43chance to poke holes in those zone coverages. Everything about the Seattle defense is designed to limit big plays and also to be very good against the run. This means that the best way to move the ball is likely to be short area passing. Luckily for the 49ers they have a lot of players who thrive in those situations. Expect Brock Perty to continue passing at a high rate with running back Christian McCaffrey and tied in George Kiddell getting peppered with targets. The team is also likely to leverage the skill set of Debo Samuel senior in a variety of creative ways. Sometimes getting the ball in his hands and sometimes using him as a distraction or decoy to create space for others. Wide receiver Mike Evans is another week removed from his rib injury which is still limiting his practice reps but his effectiveness and conditioning is likely to improve as each week passes. This does not seem like the match up for Evans to thrive due to the nature of Seattle's defense

1:25:44but his presence is a huge deal for the 49ers offense. Just having him out there makes everyone else better and opens things up. Speaking of presences that matter the 49ers will be without the services of full back Kyle Jessica for at least a couple of weeks with a knee injury. This only serves to further push them to a high pass rate approach with a focus on short quick passes that neutralize the ferocious Seattle pass rush. How Seattle will try to win? Seattle continues to operate in a familiar fashion in 2026 as they roll along weekly. Their defense has been suffocating although their opponents have been the very pedestrian offenses of the Patriots, Cardinals, commanders and chargers. On route to their 3-in-1 record the Seahawks only blimished came in their road game in Washington where they lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Seahawks offense generally works in a very predictable way with a low volume high efficiency passing attack that thrives on explosive plays and good field position generated by their

1:26:48dominant defense. Jackson Smith-Najigba is undoubtedly the engine of this offense. The Seahawks use him all over the field and their play calling is elite, seeming to find JSN exactly when defenses slip up and lose focus of him while generating space for others through concepts that thrive on the gravity his movements create. A big part of the Seattle offense the last couple of years has been high volume rushing although their ability to run the ball this season has taken a big hit compared to their 2025 Super Bowl run. Their formerly elite running back duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zack Sharman A is now the exceedingly average Emanuel Wilson being spelled by George Hollani. While the box score for Wilson in week 4 was impressive the efficiency was nothing special. San Francisco's defense is not currently an elite unit due in large part to injuries up front but they are very tough against opposing running backs historically when linebackers Fred Warner

1:27:50and Drey Greenlaw are on the field. The Seahawks won't abandon their running game even if they are not overly successful on the ground unless they fall far behind which their defense basically never allows to happen. JSN is a fixture to be used in all areas of the field. Ultimately it is everyone else whose roles and usage tends to fluctuate based on game script and matchup. The Seahawks used Rashid Shaheed creatively in week 4 and that could be a preview of things to come. Since trading for Shaheed mid season last year they have never fully utilized his game breaking ability. Beyond those three JSN Shaheed and the backfield, Seattle's other primary contributors are tight end AJ Barner and wide receivers Cooper Cup and Tori Horton. Their roles tend to depend on game script however and they are only involved in a meaningful way when Seattle is pushed. Likeliest Game Flow The likeliest Game Flow in this matchup is something

1:28:52similar to what we saw in the 49ers week 4 matchup against the Broncos. Two strong defenses holding the line and forcing their opponents to earn every yard they get. The 49ers and Seahawks are both capable offences who should be able to move the ball and get first downs but each will play things close to the vest early on which is likely to result in longer drives stalling out and resulting in field goals. Points will be at a premium early. The 49ers are simply not built to play from behind and neither are the Seahawks. Seattle's offense should be able to generate more explosive plays in the traditional way with downfield passing thanks to JSN's versatile skill set. While the 49ers will have to rely on playmakers making plays after the catch. These are two great offensive minds calling the plays in this game which leaves the door open for things to change. There is also a very real possibility that the game script develops into a higher scoring situation in the second half and teams become more aggressive out of necessity.

1:29:55The likeliest scenario is a battle between two elite teams that make each other earn everything. Fun for football fans while potentially less exciting for fantasy managers. Inner Circle Light Game setup NFC West Showdown pits the league's most efficient offense against its most efficient defense. Kyle Yuzek is out, further pushing San Francisco toward a high pass rate approach. San Francisco Path Purdy should lean on short area passing to Kittle and McCaffrey to neutralize Seattle's elite Foreman Rush Debo Samuel will be used creatively as both a weapon and a decoy to manufacture space underneath. Seattle Path Jaxon Smith-Najigba remains the offensive engine capable of generating explosive plays across all areas of the field. Immanuel Wilson seized backfield control in week four but faces a

1:30:56tough front with Warner and Green law on the field. Likeliest game flow. Low scoring grind is the most likely shape with drives stalling and field goals dominating early. Second half aggression could open up the scoring but both teams must earn every yard throughout. DFS plus angle George Kittle is the most appealing 49er given his big playability, modest salary and positional scarcity. Darnold JSN Kittle Stack is a natural build direction with a CMC bringback creating a compelling game stack ceiling.