NBA Player Rankings #4: Luka Doncic | Los Angeles Lakers

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1:00Get started at chatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on plus and pro plans. Geico presents a 30-second podcast between your podcast. Today's story is shared by one of our listeners. It's called Betrayed by Bill. It was in that moment I caught who was staring back at me in betrayal, or more like what? My insurance bill. With trembling hands, I grabbed my phone and switched to Geico, saving about $900 in the process, and never to be betrayed again. Now that was bloody riveting. It feels good when the story ends with savings. It feels good to Geico. Hey, it's Kelly Rowland. You may not know this, but I have Exema. So I get how it can steal your time. But why let Exema take over when you can talk to your doctor about Epglyce? Epglyce, Lebrichizema, LBKZ. A 250-mg per 2-mg leader injection is a prescription medicine used to treat a dull. It's a medicine used to treat a dull and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms, with moderate to severe Exema.

2:00Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies. Epglyce can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to Epglyce. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. I-problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer, worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epglyce. Before starting Epglyce, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Pay partnership with Lily. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about Epglyce and visit Epglyce.com or call 1-800-LilyRX or 1-800-545-5979. The volume. All right, we're good to have you here at the volume. Have you munded everybody? Hope all of you guys had an incredible weekend. We are continuing our Player Rankings today with number four, Luca Doncic.

3:00You guys know the drill before we started. Subscribe to the Hoops and Night YouTube channel. You don't miss any more of our videos. We have a goal to get 250,000 subs, and we need about 6,000 more. So if you haven't subscribed, it would mean a lot to us. If you guys would take a second to scroll down and hit that subscribe button. If you already subscribed, like this video. Sign up for post notifications. It helps us a lot. And the last but not least, if you want to get questions into our mailbags, where we debate these Player Rankings, if you disagree with the ranking in any way, shape or form. Right. Mailbag, colon, break it down. Give me your take. Tell me why you disagree. We'll get to it in our debate questions on Fridays throughout the remainder of the summer. All right, let's talk some basketball. So as I'm kind of hinted at in the honest video, this was another relatively easy ranking for me. 4 through 6 was probably the easiest part of the entire list. Very simply, I thought Jalen Brunson was clearly the best player of the second tier superstars, while also not being a top tier superstar. So that made him easy at number six. Yannis because of his health issues is declined defensively in the lack of offensive policy as relative to the best offensive engines in the league.

4:06Was very clearly the fifth guy in the top tier of superstars for me. And then Luca, while again, and we're going to talk about it in a minute, like I. I thought March, Luca was the highest level I saw out of any individual player last year. I thought he was the best player in the world. And I know some Luca Donchich fans will disagree with that and will like they think he had better other really good stretches throughout the year. And he certainly did have other really good stretches in the year, but there were differences between like, say the way he started the season versus how he played in March. And well, again, we'll break that down later. The thing that gets tricky with Lucas, he's such a high usage player that he's going to put up monster numbers, even when he's not really playing close to his best. And that's what kind of makes it harder to parse out, but we'll talk about that later. I think his ceiling is that of the best player in the world. Yet he simply has no case to be over any of the top three guys on this list. Why? Because over the last two years, he has not been able to sustain his ceiling via conditioning issues, weight issues and injury issues.

5:13In fact, that one month, the month of March where I thought he was the best player in the league, that was the only time in the entirety of the last two NBA seasons that he operated at that level. And that is what separates him right now bottom line is health is the only thing that stands in the way between where Lucas is now as a fourth best player in the world and actually reaching the top of the NBA, actually winning an MVP, actually getting the respect in the admiration that I know Luca don't judge fans want him to receive. That is why taking care of his body is so important and he took a big step forward last year. It looks great with the pictures that I the videos that I saw from the little camp they did in Slovenia like I there were clips where I actually mistook him for Austin because he looks so thin now and you have some of the recordings were from the behind angles. So you couldn't see his face like and part of it is him and Austin are like kind of mimicking each other with their hair at this point, which is funny.

6:14But like that's how thin he looks and I'm hoping that he's figured this out because he usually think even though he took a big step forward last year, his body still broke down. So even though he's improved on that front, there's another level he needs to get to and care for his body and the reason why I harp on that is again, because I believe if he could actually just stay healthy and stay on the court and not break down and build that. In confidence to what it was in March, he could sustain what happened in March and if you could sustain what happened in March, he could compete compete for the recognition as the best player in the world will talk a little bit more about that later on in the show. If you look at his averages, he averaged 33.5 points per game that led the NBA 8 rebounds and 8 assists per game. 62% true shooting that was the second highest mark of his career. He dig into the shooting. He got 1.07 points per jump shot. He was 39% off the catch from 3 46% off the catch from 3 when he was unguarded. 36% off the dribble threes. If you break all his jumpshooting down by distance, he was 52% inside of 17 feet, 40% on long twos, 37% on all of his threes combined.

7:24And then one of the biggest strengths of Lucas game, which we'll talk about more in more detail later is his short range scoring. He was 59% on floaters on 105 attempts in 4 for 6 on hooks when he gets into those little one handed shots inside of 10 feet. He's just money on them. It's the most yokeish-esque quality of his game and a big part of why when he's at his best, he is like the best players in the world if not better. 70% at the rim, although it's worth mentioning that his rim attempts are trending down. So 2023 in Dallas, six attempts at the rim per game, 2024 in Dallas, five attempts at the rim per game last year, just 3.5. So definitely trending down in terms of his ability to get to the rim, but overall the efficiency is still off the charts really everywhere for him in terms of his large sample data. Dig into the play type data. Those of you guys who have been following along with this list through all the videos we've been doing, you will not be surprised to see that Lucas data was off the charts. Him and Shay consistently stuck out like sore thumbs when I was digging into the data for play types. They both kind of represent the pinnacle of modern helio centric efficiency because spamming isos and pick and rolls for those two is insanely efficient.

8:37And so it makes sense for them to do so. Unpicking rolls, Luca got 1.12 points per possession on 1279 attempts out of the 10 players are on at least a thousand that ranked third. But we went over this the other day, they're bunched up next to each other, Shay, Jamal, Murray and Luca are all just over 1.12 points per possession. Then there's a big drop off to to fourth place in Jalen Brunson. And you have to remember, you know, Jamal Murray has the added benefit of playing alongside a guy who's even higher on this list in Luke don't judge. One point, excuse me, in Nicole, Yokich, 1.2 points per iso in 435 possessions, best in the league. That was first place out of the 24 players are on at least 250 and then 1.15 points per post up in 201 possessions that ranked third out of the 19 players to run at least 200. So by any measure, one of the top three offensive engines in the entire NBA, when he's at his absolute best, I think he's the best and we'll kind of parse out those differences here in a minute.

9:38But even when he's not, he's no lower than third as an offensive engine and it's a very simple progression when it comes to Luke a donchage. He has a variety of different ways that he can break you down when he gets into the half court, right? It's usually either a ball screen attack where he's looking to attack the big and his inability to make decisions in terms of like playing the ball handler versus playing the the roll man, right? He'll get into his ball screen game, guy chases over the top. He's so big and strong. He can trap you on his backside. He just kind of methodically works into the lane waits for the big to commit to him throws the lob if the big doesn't commit to him. He goes to one of those little short floaters that he hits at such a high percentage. And if you have the big commit and you tag the roller, he makes the skip pass every single damn time. It's a simple progression for him that he has mastered. He's so big and strong that no ball pressure can make him feel uncomfortable except for maybe one or two players in the entire league and even then he still does pretty well. He has the ability to score in the short range to make the defense pay if they force him to score as a drop coverage player and he is lights out at making all the reads.

10:42Then if there's a different way that he likes to attack, let's say that you have a defender on the floor like that he thinks is too small for him or if you're switching with your bives and pick and roll. He's the very best ISO player in the entire NBA. And we've talked about this when we've broken down Luca don't just this game before, but he has this remarkable ability to use very like he's not moving particularly fast. But he sells every move he makes with every part of his body. I've talked about this on the show before. Lucas actually kind of sneaky one of the best players to watch if you're a young basketball player. Because it's a lot of like it's a lot of like hyper efficient movements for him. He's not going to go to some big sweeping crossover. But he'll situate his body and his face and his shoulders and his hips and the ball like he's going to go one way and then he'll just cross over. And because he sells it so well with his body guys bite on it, right. Same thing goes with the way he sells his counters, right. He might go to an in and out, Cesar dribble into his left hand.

11:45Take a look up at the basket and hesitation dribble like he's going to shoot. And then he's going to come back across with another Cesar dribble and because he sells every part of that move. The defender will open his hips and in lose control of the situation. I mean, even famously on his step back three that he hit to win game two of the Western conference finals in 2024. Watch how he sells the drive with the hard move to the right before he goes to the step back and it forces Rudy go bear to take a bad negative step to his left, which opens up the separation for him to get to his step back. When he gets into his ISO game, he sells all of his moves incredibly well while having a counter for every situation and it just makes some really difficult to guard. Then to top it off, he doesn't really need to beat you. He doesn't need to dust you with a move that has you falling over and tripping over your shoelaces. He just needs to get a tiny bit of an angle because as soon as he gets a tiny bit of an angle, he's bigger and stronger than you. We talk about all the time the leverage battle that takes place in these driving situations. It comes down to like my shoulders on you and your shoulders on me while you're driving, who's winning am I flattening you out or you blowing through my shoulder and turning the corner and Lucas going to blow through your shoulder and he's going to turn the corner.

13:00So if you can pick on bigs and ball screens and do all the scoring and playmaking necessary there. And if you can pick on any of your weaker defenders and ISO and whether it's a small that he immediately just bullies to the basket or it's a big that he gets off balance with a nice move and a counter move. He has mastered offensive basketball in the NBA. The two things that are the difference maker between Luca being the third best offensive engine in the NBA and the best offensive engine in the NBA are the three point shot in the turnovers. One of the most common things that you'll see when when you talk to Luca don't judge fans about the season and you tell the truth, which is that it was an uneven season. There were ups and downs, the rest, is where he wasn't as good as others. And if one of the most common bits of pushback that I get from Luca fans are like you act like he was only good in March. Did you see how good he was to start the season and when you dig into the numbers. The difference was the three point shot in the turnovers in 16 games to start the season before he went back home to Slovenia, which was the first kind of derailing moment of the season in terms of.

14:06And you know, I know he had personal stuff going on. So I know it's more complicated than it appears on the surface. But just strictly talking about his production in those 16 games to start the season 35 9 and 9. That's fucking crazy. I'm not going to not going to gloss over that. But if you dig and do it again as we talked about because of his high usage, he's always going to put up big numbers. But when you parse it out and get into it, he was 48% from the field 34% from three and averaged 4.3 turnovers per game had a lot of high turnover games in that stretch in his March stretch. So this goes. There's 18 games from February 26th to the last game in March was the game, which was the game before the Oklahoma City debacle. 37 points per game, eight rebound seven assists, 50% from the field, 40% from three, 3.6 turnovers per game basketball's back folks and you need to change the way you invest in the NBA this season. It's finally time to ditch your old sports book apps because polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states and those old sports books. They're a relic of the past on polymarket.

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17:16It was in that moment I caught who was staring back at me in betrayal or more like what my insurance bill with trembling hands I grabbed my phone and switched to guy co saving about $900 in the process and never to be betrayed again. Now that was bloody riveting it feels good when the story ends with savings it feels good to guy co okay says give me the scoop what have you been up to living my best life I've been traveling working even hiking more and things to team mobile I'm connected for all of it really I need details I mean with America's best network I can pretty much go anywhere even when I'm off grid I'm still connected by satellite that's cool plus I get unlimited texting and data brought so I'm all set for my trip to Greece. I don't even need to do anything it'll just work when I get there that's it I got to get the mobile I don't even get reception in my apartment this is why I'm mom's favorite so many reasons to join team mobile find yours at team mobile dot com best mobile network in the US based on analysis but who clues be tested

18:22out in a state of first half of 2026 with compatible device and most outdoor areas and select countries where you can see the sky included with experience beyond $10 a month auto renews monthly cancel any time I speed data on select plans not for extended international use coverage and other available in some areas he planned for details. So he upped his usage up to scoring massively increases efficiency and dropped his turnovers by seven tenths of a turnover per day despite the increase in usage and again that is the difference. When you're talking about like in this this kind of exists for all the players in the world right like when we talk about Yoke it's there's like this apex version of him that's like when he has his three point shot going and when he's engaged on defense right but then you'll watch stretches of of Yoke it's and you'll be like man he's just a turn style at the basket and he can't hit his pick and pop three. And all the sudden he looks like less impactful he's still awesome though he's still Yoke it's still awesome there's just that that that top end for him that's missing.

19:25Shay goes to Alexander it's the three point shot right like when she has his three point shot going he makes everything so much easier for him but you've seen time and time again in the post season is three point shot fails him it forces him to lean too much into his mid range pull up the defenders are better and they're more up in his face and the defensive scheme. And then he's more key keyed in on him his mid range efficiency tanks is true shooting percentage tanks and he's not the same player that he is when he's at his absolute best still awesome though right and the same thing goes for Luca I'm not sitting here saying that the 35 9 and 9 Luca that still shot 48% from the field 34% from three in this to start the season wasn't great he was great but it's just not the same as when Luca has his three point shot going and he's taking care of the basketball one of the things that kind of. Separates Luca specifically from Shay is that turnover piece of it. Luca and anybody you watch the Lakers with a fair eye last year will know there were games and times during games where Luca would throw a bad pass and it would almost always lead to a transition opportunity the other way in a bucket turnovers can be particularly damaging especially from Helio centric players especially in four out one in spacing because when you have the corners occupied in a big rolling to the basket and Luca

20:43is driving. You can have four players below the foul line and if he throws a bad pass in traffic or turns the ball over it can create a floor balance dynamic where there's only one player back in transition and the defense is running it down your throat for baskets. Luca when you talk about the Luca verse Shay debate it again like I'm not I don't have any dog in the any a horse in this race so to speak like I said before last season I thought Luca was better than Shay I have changed my mind after watching them last season. One of the things with Luca is if you just accumulate the good you just accumulate the good Luca is better than Shay by any measure. But the problem is it's not that simple it's the good and the bad and with Luca there there's just a there's a little bit more of that mistake making and you know guess what a bad step back three off of the left wing where he flops and complains to the refs can also lead to transition opportunities going on. The other way there the bad stuff with Luca would pile up in undercut his success not to say he was bad but just to put him below the three guys that I have above him on this list that's the real pivot point for Luca in that March stretch it all came together.

22:01And then I was going to step back three going shot 40% from three in that month he was taking much better care of the basketball and it actually you could see it like really come together for him in his personality there was a confidence in like a intensity with his shit talking that kind of returned it was like that was I remember when I was not traded to the Lakers I was so excited obviously I've been rooting for a LeBron James team. I had always admired Luca from his time in Dallas even though I was critical of certain things like his conditioning and his defense in the 2024 finals but like I was excited to watch I wanted to see what it was like to root for Luca and I kept waiting for the Luca that did what he did in game five to Minnesota in 2024. So I get waiting for the Luca that did what he did to Phoenix in game seven of that 2022 series I can't waiting for it and it just like that like shit talking indomitable unstoppable Luca and I just never came around and then it did in that March and I'm like oh my God this is this guy's fucking unbelievable.

23:06And then he got hurt and so that really is the thing when I keep talking about like his health as like the main pivot point for him in his career that's what I'm getting that because I think him staying healthy and on the floor and accumulating games to the point where he gets into peak condition he has peak rhythm his jump shot is there like we talked about in the honest video jump shooting can be very fickle when you're in and out of the lineup when all of it is together for Luca that's when he like so you know let's let's. Take it to Yoke it's for example the the guy that I think is the best offensive engine in the NBA. What do I always talk about with you know, catch with his with him being the best offensive engine talk about short range scoring and power right most of the guys in the league. Oh, I can get to a jump shot that I might hit 50% of the time because it's a short range jump shot well, Yoke it's just going to get into the lane and he's going to get to some hooks that he can make 65% of the time. And so there's a certain of like single possession reliability with Yoke it's combined with his playmaking that I think made him the best offensive engine in the NBA. He also had like a.

24:14A a a different kind of like rhythm to his offense that empowered his teammates like Luca and shake and go both get a little hellio centric at times. Yoke it's passes the ball a million times a game and the ball is always kind of flowing from side to side and he's constantly running action with his teammates and. So there's a lot of different elements that kind of make Yoke it's like that, but one of the separators for him was his short range scoring what makes Luca don't should so unique at his best. Why I think he's the best player in the NBA when he's got everything cooking comes down to his ability to do both the short range scoring piece like again 59% on floaters last year like he was super, super efficient on hooks to obviously for for six on hooks he's very good when he gets into the short range he has access to that the bully ball short range game. And he can become a high volume three point shooter. The thing with the high volume three point shooting is it unlocks an upside that you cannot get to as a different type of score.

25:20This is what we saw from Steph Curry over the years is what we saw from Damien Lillard over the years when you're taking eight nine ten threes a game and you get hot so you attempt twelve or thirteen a game and you make seven or eight of them or six or seven of them all of a sudden you're getting 1820. 21 points just on threes. She doesn't bring the high volume three point shooting. Yokech doesn't bring the high volume three point shooting. Steph used to that was what he brought. But there's no other player in the top tier of superstars who's capable of like having 20 games a year where he hits at least six or seven threes. That's the upside with Luca that is different. You with she you get the ability to get to the rim and the reliable mid range jump shooting and pretty high level playmaking with Yokech you get super reliable short range scoring and the ability to be that like apex playmaker in the NBA.

26:20Lucas the one guy when he's healthy that gives you the short range scoring the high volume three point upside and the apex playmaking. That's what makes him when he's at his best the best player in the league it's just about his ability to maintain the efficiency from the three point line because he'll also have games that we've all seen where he just goes you know one for nine from three or two for thirteen from three and those can be pretty damaging games. Especially when they pile up like when he has those stretches where he has 16 games and he shoots 34% from three because more often than not he's going to for nine from three with a couple of really good games that balance it out that in the turnovers those are the two things that drag him down from his ability to stay at that level if you can get there and stay there I think he is the potential to be the best player in the world now last thing I'll talk about with Luca with the defense. He gets fairly maligned for his defense and there have been times where it's worse than others like Luca I would argue his floor defensively is like the worst out of all the top tier superstars in the sense that he will have stretches of games and games where like he's completely disengaged on that and it can be really really bad.

27:33He's engaged I think he's every bit is capable of being a useful defender in the scheme as the other offensive engine types in the top and I think it's unfair to like single out luca for his defense when I think Nicoli Yokic can be mostly bad on defense and I think she gives out Xander can be completely physically overwhelmed on defense like we saw in the San Antonio series so like to me like do I think it's a weak point in Lucas case yes. But I think it's a weak point Yokic's case and she might provide better possession to possession effort but he's a skinny small guard so like he did like she brings value he can get contested defensive rebounds he can make plays as a secondary rim protector at the basket but overall he can be physically overwhelmed at time so like defense was less of a factor for me comparing Luca to those two guys it really comes down to me with Luca the three point shot in the turnovers those are the two things that I really want to do.

28:33I want to see him rectify as he kind of attempts to finally make that last ascent in the NBA and that's really where all rap things up today like every one every year everyone's like this is the year Lucas is going to win MVP every year I talk to people that is Lucas better than Yokic's Lucas better than Shay and the what makes that conversation complicated is we have seen Lucas ceiling like I like Shay has never had a playoff game like what Luca do you think is better than Yokic's Lucas is better than Shay and the what makes that conversation complicated is we have seen Lucas ceiling like I like Shay has never had a playoff game like what Luca did to Minnesota in game five of the 2024 Western conference finals Shay has never had a playoff game like what Luca did to the suns in game seven and Phoenix. Luca and Shay and Yokic have never had a month like what Luca just had in March. Luca has the highest ceiling of any player in the NBA. Will he win an MVP this year? Will he finally get the recognition as the best player in the world? It will entirely come down to his ability to sustain that level of production at a higher level than he has in the last couple of seasons.

29:40Alright guys, it's all half for today is always a sincerely appreciate you for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back on Wednesday. We're going to be covering all of the top three in the same video because I basically had them in a tie so I had to make some really tough decisions but we'll get to them on Wednesday else you guys. To honor our country on its 250th birthday is Canada Copenhagen goes out to those defending the free American soil but our tobacco has taken root in for over two centuries in counting years to the callous chance of freedom. Copenhagen saluting American grit proven since 1822. Warning this product is not a safe alternative to cigarettes. Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all only at my toes.

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31:52Don't use if you are allergic to Eppglis. A allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. I problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer worsening eye problems you should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Eppglis. Before starting Eppglis tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lily. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about Eppglis and visit Eppglis.com or call 1-800-LilyRX or 1-800-545-5979. This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.