MetroLink Construction Activity Could Be Seen By Year End

0:00The last word. With life pharmacy, over 100 local pharmacies nationwide that are always here to help life pharmacy live better together. And so it seems progress towards having metrolink for Dublin is finally accelerating. We've had details today that the project is being put out to tender for construction and the money apparently is in place. We're joined by Larkin O'Connor who's the chief executive of Transport Infrastructure Ireland. And what's your relationship to the Metro? What's your responsibility on it? So transport infrastructure Ireland currently in addition to MetroLink provides the Lewis services in Dublin and also working on new lines in Cork and elsewhere. And also the National Road Networks of the Motorway, Dublin Port Tunnel, some greenway projects and the like. We have been involved in the current MetroLink project since the beginning.

1:00So securing the railway order and working now up to today's approval for the business case. Government have announced that over the next number of months the MetroLink project itself will be set up as a special delivery body. But for now it's part of the Transport Infrastructure Ireland family. But that means you'll be handing over responsibility or will you be retaining oversight? And in over responsibility and the direct reporting line then will be into the Department of Transport. Okay. It could cost 17 and a half billion euro. Why so much? Well, today we've gotten government approval of an updated business case and that business case indicates a range of 14 and a half to 17 and a half billion. Now every number in that range is a big number. There's no denying that. But the central figure that we've identified as the most likely outcome is 15.75 billion. Now that's a big increase on the original business case. It's an enormous increase. Only in September 2022 we were told it'd be between 7.16 billion and 12.25 billion.

2:08So the central point there at the midpoint was 9.5 billion. So we've gone from 9.5 billion to what? The equivalent 9.5 to 15.75. So you're talking about an increase of 6 and a quarter billion euro in just four years. Correct. And it won't come as a surprise to your listeners that one of the key drivers of that is inflation. There is inflation. And inflation doesn't account for all of that. Well, unfortunately we have gone through a period of years of very high inflation, particularly in infrastructure and all of the inputs into infrastructure. So there isn't a project in the world that isn't seen this kind of inflationary pressure over the last number of years. But there are a couple of other drivers that I should also point out. The other main one being just the maturity of the project and updating the business case for the sort of situation that we're in now. So what I mean by that is we thankfully now have a railway order that sets out a number

3:11of conditions for us to deliver on metrolink. So we have now priced in those conditions. So what we need to do to meet the conditions from on Commission Planole and in addition to that design maturity. So for example, when we did the original business case, it was an outline design. It was a proof of concept that yes, we've a strategic problem to solve here and this is likely what the project would need to be to do it. And now we have very detailed designs of the tunnel, the stations, et cetera, et cetera. So we have a far more detailed breakdown and an analysis of the costs. It is showing 15.5, but I would also say the benefits are higher. And that's the point. It's two thirds more expensive according to this estimate than it was four years ago. Two thirds cannot be accounted for by inflation. There's enough lot of additional things gone in there, isn't it? Which maybe all necessary to get the job done, but it does make you wonder about the initial estimates that were done for September 2022.

4:14Well, what we have now is that detailed analysis and the detailed breakdown that would be published in the business case for everybody to see. But I think what's equally important to note is that the benefits exceed the cost. What we have published today is a range of those benefits of between 1.1 and 1.9. So in other words, for every euro you spend on this project, you could be getting up to 1 euro 90 back. Explain how you convince the listeners that this will be a worthwhile use of government funds. Well, I think I can certainly convince the listeners that are currently stuck in traffic on their way back from work into towards swords where you're looking at it on often, on many occasions, commute times of well over 90 minutes. The commute time from swords into the city center when this project is up and running will be less than half an hour to the airport from the city center less than 20 minutes. So quicker journey times, reduced congestion, reduced CO2, everything you would associate

5:20with the public transport project. But there's far greater benefits to that than just that. So for example, housing. We're in housing crisis. We need sustainable housing. So not car dependent housing, but instead transport orientated development. And what we've identified here is that there's circa 77,000 residential units that will be delivered directly along the alignment of Metro. But when you look at other projects, that everyone would be put in walking distance of a station. Correct. But what you do see for these kind of services is that it typically acts as a catalyst for well over a kilometer in each direction of the line. So we reckon that you could be looking at over 200,000 residential units that would be supplied, facilitated as a result of this project. Another example being city regeneration. You may have seen over the summer our acquisition of land on O'Connell Street.

6:21And that's obviously important for us to actually deliver the O'Connell Street station. But ultimately what it allows us to do is to properly master plan that area. So that, you know, compared to the way it's been for quite some time now, you could have a main street that everybody could be proud of and would be a real destination in itself. I suspect a lot of listeners are thinking when they hear this, thinking of national children's hospital. They're thinking of something that we were promised to have cost X amount of money. It's now costing about three X. They're thinking of something that was going to be delivered five years ago. And we still don't know when it is going to be opened. So what confidence can people have that the Metro link will be built on time and on budget? Well, we're thinking of a two and we're also looking at major projects elsewhere in the world that have gone wrong as well as those that have gone right to try and learn from them. So what we know at this stage is that we've got a very detailed design.

7:23So we know to a very final level of detail exactly what we want. And that's going to go into the procurement. And I think that certainly is a learning from where cases have gone wrong in the past where you've been sort of wishy-washy in terms of ultimately what you're looking for. And then also we're making sure that within the procurement we have a competitive tendering process. So you're getting the best value for the taxpayer by ensuring that you have a number of international consortia that are actually really bidding to try and win this work. And we do have that. And then ultimately then in terms of contracting and managing the contractor to make sure that roles, responsibility, incentives are all crystal clear to ensure that this is a success. Have you had expressions of interest from the type of construction companies would experience of doing this? Because having spoken to Sean Sweeney in this office, the former boss of Metro link, he was suggesting there aren't really the Irish companies here to do it.

8:24That this capacity will have to be brought in from overseas. So that was one of the biggest risks early on in this project that we had to convince the market that this project was happening and also that it was worthwhile them looking at it. And we have done that. Now that didn't happen by accident. There was a lot of effort and involved reaching in reaching to the wider marketplace. But the good news is that we have done the first stage of tendering, which is called pre-qualifications. So this is where you go out to the market and you say, tell us if you're interested and convince us that you have the experience and the expertise to do it. And that has happened. And we have fortified very large consortia identified that will build, are looking to build the tunnel and an equal number then who are looking to build out the stations and actually operate the Metro. So that's exactly where we want to be, where you have not too many, but you have the right kind of groups that are formed to bid for this and with that competitive tension, you're

9:28best placed trying to get value for money. Sean Sweeney, having left to return back to the Southern hemisphere and I think he's gone home to New Zealand. I think he's gone to a new job in Australia. He gave up his 550,000 per annum job as the boss of the Metro link. And then when he got back to the Southern hemisphere, it started outlining the reasons which he hadn't in interviews prior to going, including that he, the project had been oversold to him when he was coming here, which is almost like saying he had been sold a pop. So how again can the public be confident that what has been promised to it are present by transported infrastructure Ireland across the whole range of measures will actually happen? Well, I think in fairness to Sean, what he has done is helped us secure that market interest I've just spoken about, which didn't exist before Sean's arrival. But what I can also say is today's government decision shows that we are at a point now that we're going out to tender and we're only doing that because we're ready.

10:31So I think both the market and your listeners and particularly those people stuck in their car at the moment trying to get back home to swords, they can be confident that this project is happening. It will take the best part of 10 years. So it's not going to unfortunately happen overnight. There will be a lot of disruption in the meantime, but ultimately the pain will be worth the game. Well, for all of the people of Ireland, because I can imagine there are many listeners outside of Dublin who are saying this money could be well spent around the country instead of all been concentrated in Dublin. No, and I can understand why they might take that view. But I would, in the first instance, point is the return on investment here. So for every euro going in, we're getting a lot more back. But having said all of that, connectivity is also a key element. So this line has been designed to connect with Intercity Rail in Glass-Nevin with Lewis on a number of occasions with bus connects and other stations elsewhere.

11:35So it will not only make life easier for the resident I keep talking about in swords, but also for anybody looking to access the airport, or indeed just looking to try and get around Dublin, because overall this will take cars off the road and ease congestion generally in the city. Because you know, my colonial area of Ryanair is consistently said that the airport does not need a rail connection, it just needs more buses. But Dublin and swords and that general area needs access to the airport. It also needs hundreds of thousands of residential units. It also needs regeneration in Dublin city. And it's the overall, I suppose, package that we're saying here is well justified. It's really important that it's going to the airport, but it's not just an airport line. The Arkansas Conor Chief Executive of Transport Infrastructure Ireland. The last word. With life pharmacy, over 100 local pharmacies nationwide that are always here to help life pharmacy

12:35live better together.