Making Cents of the Markets for September 9th, 2026

0:00It is time now for making sense of the markets with Laurie Pankowski. Laurie is a senior portfolio manager at Canacor, Genuity and is with us now. Good morning, Laurie. Good morning, Sydney. How are you? I am good. Thank you. I know it's been a busy morning on the markets. What's going on? Well, it has been and yesterday as well, markets are obviously in the red as oils moving higher. After the latest middle east exchange of strikes. And so we'll get to that shortly. But that's kind of what markets are focused on right now is the price of oil. And as you and I have talked over the last few months, we've seen oil settled down. And then, you know, the conflict picks up steam and then you see oil move higher. And so that's what you're seeing right now in markets. But again, try not to focus too much on the short term. And the reason that is is when you look at markets in general, they might be off two to three percent from the high, right? So it's nothing to get overly worried about. I know what Canadians are mostly focused on just from talking to clients and so on. As obviously the Canadian US trade situation to me, which I'm sure you guys are reporting on.

1:06Oh, it's well. Yeah. So when we're looking at that, I mean, it's just unfortunate that, you know, we are seeing these tariffs. And what we've seen is 15 to 50% on roughly 28 billion of US goods. And that includes anything from motorcycles, cosmetic cheese and toilet paper. And, you know, it's close to the trade value of the US tariffs imposed as well, right? So it's kind of a tit for tat as we're seeing. We're seeing Cardney, obviously, out there defending his position on this and what he's doing. And we've seen this movie before though, right? So when we're looking at this, we're not thinking that it's going to stay where it is, even though the rhetoric is harsh on both sides. The thought is is that they will come to some sort of conclusion at some point. What we've heard today is that there may be some talks happening again, right? And that's what we need. We need that open communication. See me would be how they resolve this and come to some sort of conclusion.

2:06But just remember with tariffs, when they were announced on that liberation day, if you recall last year, I mean, he was starting with 40, 50% as well. Ended up being kind of 20% but ended up actually settling down at 7 to 11% kind of after all the dust settled. And even though that was higher than where it was, it still wasn't nearly what was announced initially. And that's where we believe that kind of the same story will play out. Right. Okay. So that's it's still so volatile though. Isn't it, Laurie? Like so hard to see. We're thinking, you don't know what's going to make it change and go up or go down. Yeah. In terms of the uncertainty over the trade war with the US, I think that is what hurts our economy the most at this point. Just because there's obviously nothing finalized. Say, you don't know people who are worried to invest in business. If you don't know what the outcome will be and what your profits could be. So that that is the issue, the uncertainty. But you know, when things get uncertain, sometimes there's opportunities out there too, right?

3:08And again, I don't believe it's going to stay as high as it is today in terms of tariffs. And there will be some sort of solution at some point here. And hopefully rather sooner than later. Now, and then the Middle East conflict is obviously a major focus as I was mentioning just because of price of oil. And so there are, there is motivation on both sides to get something resolved there too, just with the Iranian economy. As well as with the US midterms coming up, they don't want high oil prices. But again, we would have thought that this would have been resolved a while ago. And it seems like anytime they get close to some sort of solution there, then, you know, strikes start happening again. And you see oil move higher. But oils, I think the market is not responding as harshly as it did the first time back in March, just because again, it's kind of the same movie that we've seen before. So, so that's what we're looking at. Just remember what moves markets most. And I've mentioned this many times is corporate earnings. And the last running season was very positive. Markets are also focused on inflation. We're going to be getting some inflation numbers out of the US later this week.

4:11And that's what we're going to be looking at, semi. So, you know, you want to own good holdings during this time. You want to again be active in the management in terms of what you own and be ready for anything, right? And I think that's important. Buy and hold in any market is not a good idea. You want your portfolio management team to make moves if necessary. But also investors may be getting overly worried about the headlines out there. It's important as a portfolio manager to, you know, always stay grounded and understand why you own what you own. And also understanding what the current global situation is and what that means for the companies that you have in the portfolio as well. Okay. Now, here we are. September 9th and you and I have been doing this for a few years now, Laurie. And we talk about September, how things sometimes perhaps go a little bit sideways in September. What does your take on that? Yeah. You know, thinking about you and I have been doing this a long time in the drama comb before that. It's 17 years of being on CKW. So a lot of September, 17 September.

5:13So most people think October is the market's toughest month. And that's understandable when you think the crash, 87 with black Monday or the 2008 financial crisis also really, you know, was heating up in October at that point. But historically, September has actually been the weaker month. And so since 20, 19, 25, the S&P 500 average, a 1% decline in September. That makes it the weakest month on calendar from a historical perspective. But that doesn't really tell you the whole story. Roughly 52% of September's have actually delivered positive returns. So again, it's not like September hits and you need to run for the hills. Remember seasonality is a very small part of the market and why it moves. But this is a question we often get about October. So I thought I would get ahead of it. So we can talk about September. You know, the market was also hiring each of the last two September's, right? So it doesn't mean every year this happens.

6:14But it, but you can't see it be a little weaker. And obviously midterms coming up, sometimes you see volatility leading up to that. But after midterms, markets usually move higher. And in fact, almost always move higher. So I think that's important to put in perspective. And you're a long-term investor. So don't get worried about a month or two. A volatility either. Remember earnings will be back and focused in October midterms will be done in November. So there's a lot of positives out there. And hopefully that the conflict in Iran will be somewhat resolved. And as well as this tear of situation between Canada and the US. So lots going on out there like I always say, it's new and exciting every day. But seasonality is only one piece of the puzzle. The factors that tend to matter most, semi-ar corporate earnings, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, all those fun and exciting things that we look at each and every day. Yes, fun and exciting. That's exactly what I was thinking. Would you say then, okay, September is historically the weakest month.

7:15In October, we tend to think of that as a week month. So when do things improve? Like as November usually pretty good? Yeah, November to March of the strongest periods for the market, actually. And so like even when we have people transferring to us, right? People call us and they'll put up counts of transfer and cash. A lot of the time even will put one third to work than another one third. So you kind of average into markets, not just because of September, but we do that naturally. All the time instead of picking you know, one day to put money to work in our portfolios. We only have a little bit of cash, maybe five to seven percent. And just looking at the overall situation, the health of the economy in the US. It is healthy and and markets do tend to focus on that in Canada. These tariffs obviously matter. We're talking about there could be potential job losses and affect certain sectors more than others. And again, we have minimal exposure to those sectors that could be effective. So that's what active management means is being ready to act when it needed. And and following all of the information that's out there, geopolitical or economic or otherwise.

8:20And that's why again, I've got two fantastic analysts, associate portfolio managers on my team. We're all working together for a client daily following all this information. And and that's what you got to do in this kind of environment. Simea lots lots has been growing at investors right now, right? No kidding. Yes. Laurie, thank you so much for that. Thanks so much, Simey. Have a great week. That is Laurie Pinkowski. Laurie is a senior portfolio manager at Canacorn, Genudi. Now you can contact her team that she was talking about there. You can call them 604 695 LORI or you can visit their website at pinkowski.ca.