Late-Round ADP Risers

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1:00It's fall in Jeep country and during the drive into fall sales event, get a great deal on four by fours that refuse to be contained like Jeep Wrangler. Confidence built into every drive with the most awarded SUV ever, Jeep Grand Cherokee, and freedom that can't be denied with the open air freedom and Jeep gladiator. After 85 years, it's no surprise that Jeep became America's SUV brand. Get a great deal during the Jeep drive into fall sales event. Jeep is one more awards over its lifetime than any other SUV brand, even the Jeep gorilla registered trademarts of FCA US LLC. What's up everybody? Nick Whalen, Alex Baruta hanging out with you from rhodawire.com. So the Rhodawire Fantasy basketball YouTube channel, Alex, we are getting closer and closer. We are inching closer to the starts of the NBA season. We're starting to get some more mocks drafts, some more early real drafts, some ADP data, firming up a little bit. And today we want to talk about some of the players going a little bit later in drafts. We're talking pick 70, 75 and beyond who are rising up the board. So I think one way we could frame this is players, the experts like later and draft players,

2:03they're willing to jump ADP for and we are looking at ADP from a month ago. So early August versus now early September, you put together a list of the biggest risers in that range. Again, we're focusing on players about pick 75 to the pick 125 range. So we'll go through. We'll talk about whether these guys should actually be rising up boards. We'll give you a few notes on each of those players. Top of the list, Alex, is a guy that you have been talking about for weeks. I know you just you love the Sacramento Kings. It's Zach Levine and look, when you when you assess this jet chart, you might not have high hopes for what Sacramento might be this season, but there's still there's still not a whole lot there. Am I right to assume that the Ben Simmons signing has not changed your opinion as to how you value Zach Levine? It is not, especially after like 24 hours or 48 hours after it was announced that it was very quietly slipped in. It's like it's actually not really even a guarantee that he's on the roster. They're going to get one million dollar bonus if he makes the roster. So great stuff there, but no, I look. I think Zach Levine is a good flyer to take, you know, after pick 100 in your drafts.

3:07And maybe he doesn't last the whole season on the Sacramento Kings, but really in that range, you're just hoping for like, can I get a guy who could give me, I don't know, top 60 top 50 production for half a season. That would be a win and a possible sell high candidate and look the way this Kings roster sits right now. We'll get shock you if for as long as Zach Levine is on this team that he led the Kings and scoring, because that would not surprise me at all. I hate to say it wouldn't surprise me either. And you know, I think him getting traded that would probably be a negative right there. There aren't too many. I would say better situations just for Zach Levine to play minutes to produce, but that's not something you can necessarily plan for. I think it the King certainly should explore dealing Zach Levine. I believe he's in the final year of his contract that becomes a little bit easier. But still we're talking around pick 100 a guy who, you know, is initially going at about pick 124 pick 125 and moving up close to a full round over the last month. So about a 7% rise in his ADP. The next guy in the list is Kason Wallace did I remember getting Kason Wallace in like the 13th round of a of a mock that we did not too long ago.

4:13He started rise up the board as well now to take him around that pick 115 to pick 120 range. So just behind Zach Levine in terms of, you know, percentile movement. I totally get it with Kason Wallace, you know, KC. Thinned out some of its depth. This offseason kind of had to with without the cap operates. They have some young players that they want to introduce either way, especially if you're playing in a category league. Being able to lock in those steals, even if he's not in your lineup every single week, just having that kind of steal specialist. You can give you a little bit else and some other categories. He's a player that I really like. There are so many just kind of dud types or guys with no upside or, yeah, I guess I get it type of players in that 120 range. There aren't many players who are going off the board at that spot where you can conceivably say he could lead the league in category X. 2.6 steals per 36 last year as long as with half a block. And he I think is going to start for the thunder this year. I mean, the Ludo, it's gone. Aaron Wiggins is gone. Isaiah Joe is gone.

5:13I mean, that that wing room, that bench guard slash small forward room is just gone. And I know you got Jared McCain is still there. But I would trust Kason Wallace to potentially play 30 minutes this season. And he was already a fringe. I wouldn't call him must roster last year. But if you needed steals, you had to roster him last year. And so if he if he is able to get 30 minutes of game, I think he's just going to have to be on fantasy basketball rosters. And that type of guy, I think is, you know, right now is going 115 in drafts and could probably push up closer to just 100 or even 95 if you're if you're feeling aggressive. So we are going in order of kind of biggest movement so far. But I want to skew that a little bit to talk about AJ Mitchell who has a very similar ADP to to Kason Wallace still going a little bit ahead of him. So AJ Mitchell is down to about pick one 13 Kason Wallace about pick one 15. If you're choosing between those two, do you have a favorite if you're in a category league? Is it just come down to? Okay, what do I need here?

6:13It might come down to what you need. I do think AJ Mitchell is a higher upside guy though. In general, I mean, he's someone who is able to play make for himself and for others in a way that case and Wallace. Case and Wallace, I think is a very good player, but he might just be trapped as a 3 and D guy. And I think that's all they really want him or need him to do. Meanwhile, AJ Mitchell is a potential six man of the year candidate and someone who again could push up into the high 20s and minutes. And his 20 years old, so could could develop more as well. Another player on our list of ADP risers later in drafts, they run sharp, who was up about seven spots over the last month, not enough. Alex, if you ask me. Yeah, I mean, sharp is a guy where we've been talking about for a long time. I think I think the very quick explanation is that he is one of the best per minute fantasy producers out there, especially when you take off the top tier guys, you know, he's 1.2, 1.3. He points per minute, the per 36 numbers are ridiculous have been ridiculous throughout his entire career. And he's going to step into a starting role presumably. And I think he only needs 26 minutes, probably to be close to a must roster guy. I wouldn't expect him to play 30 minutes, 32 minutes or anything like that. He just hasn't proven to be able to do that really throughout much of his career, even when sort of given bigger opportunities.

7:27He's not really a 30 minute game guy, but 26, 27 minutes. I think you just take the upside shot at this point, latent drafts. You bring up a really good point with sharp, but it's not just last year, if you're looking at the per minute stuff for per 36 minutes, like he has literally been doing this, since he came into the league and played like 300 minutes total as a rookie per 36. He was at 18 and 15 with 1 and a half blocks, 1 and a half assists. I think he is a sneaky good passer, right? I think we think of the rebounding, but 4 and a half assists per 36. And you hit the nail in the head. This is not a guy that we're saying, hey, go get him because he's going to play 34 minutes per game for the Brooklyn Deds. I think upside wise, we're looking at what 30 31 would be like a true best case scenario, but who else is behind him? You know, Julius Randall, I guess, could play some center for Brooklyn, but this is this is one of the worst center rotations in the entire league. It's Mo Wagner, Danny Wolf, who I would say is not really a true center either behind him. Like Brooklyn does not have a ton of options. If this was the net's roster going into last year, or maybe the better way to say this is if the new lottery system was not in place, would you have nearly as much interest in Dayrun Sharp?

8:33Like how much of it is, hey, I think the nets are actually going to have to kind of try this year. I think I mean, I think he's one of those guys that would have maybe played through the tank. I'm not sure. It's possible, but look, it always helps. Right. I mean, I think the new lottery rules will help curb some of the tanking. And I do, I do think Sharp is like a good impactful player. So yeah, I do have some confidence in him. Tiger Rome is next on the list ADP creeping up close to pick 90. So he's up about five and a half spots in the last month, about a six percent rise in his ADP. Another guy out, I would say, still maybe not going high enough. You look at some of the names who come off the board before him. I think we understand the rationale for it. You know, Memphis is still kind of a confusing depth chart. There are some other guys who need to get minutes. I am fairly confident now because that time to Rome is is going to win out in terms of some of the other names Walter Clayton, Cam Spencer, Scotty Pippin. I am just so much more appealed by him than those guys. I mean, I, I saw a rumor today that Walter Clayton and D'Angelo Russell are potential guys who are going to get cut on the Memphis Grizzly. So I don't know how much competition from those guys is going to be there.

9:43I didn't even mention D'Angelo Russell. That's true. But look, I, yeah, Jerome, I think, you know, if you take his past two seasons worth of numbers. So you might be thinking, oh, the 15 games he played last year that was super inflated. Even if you take his last 85 games played about 20, 21 minutes of game, those averages are like top 80 averages. So the fact that you're getting him below that mark when he should be playing more minutes, I think is a steal. I think it's just people are like scared off by the sort of like downside risk or just we haven't seen a 28 minute per game tied Jerome in the games played situation for his career is not great. I think, look, if you're someone who dress for upside late or like pick 75, you know that you flip the switch, Jerome has to be one of the first guys you target just for pure potential. Next player on our list of late round ADP risers Caleb Wilson, Alex who is now going inside the top 100. We're using fan tracks ADP. So comparing that from a month ago to where we stand now on September 9th.

10:47Caleb Wilson moving from about pick 102 to pick 96. You know, we've talked about some Yahoo drafts, some underdog drafts where we've seen Caleb Wilson and other rookies go quite a bit higher. But what do you make of this updated ADP for him? He should be going inside the top 100, I think for sure. So the fact that people are reaching for him makes sense. Interestingly, I think his fantasy profile will be pretty similar to Matasbuz Ellis, two guys were going to share the court together, which is just like, well, you know, the three ball, do we 100% trust it? I don't know, but this guy's a great athlete and he can get steals and blocks out of position and he can rebound. And so that's still a guy worth drafting inside the top 100. Obviously there's risks with rookies, but he should have all the opportunity that he needs. In category leagues for me as so much of the risk just lies in the inefficiency, the field goal percentage, I think that could be somewhat of a risk for Wilson, just depending on how many threes he ends up taking. We had one sample in college where he was barely taking threes and then summer league, he's just firing away.

11:48I think it probably comes in somewhere in the middle, like he was featured on that summer league team. He is not necessarily going to be featured as a starter for the bulls this season. How much did the defensive stats kind of weigh into this like to see have to be what do you think like north of to combine steals and blocks per game for this to make sense. I think so. Yeah, I mean, that's sort of what you have to be thinking in terms of why you're drafting him there because like you alluded to, yes, he was great in summer league. But in terms of offensive packing order, get ease above him, Norm Powell has the potential to be above him, Buzellis is above him. So then you're talking about like a fourth offensive guy. And you know, you mentioned the three ball is free, is free throw percentage is not that encouraging either now is going to take enough for it to really matter for you. There's a good chance it won't. But yeah, I mean, you probably going to need the defensive rebounding to be there to some extent. Yeah, and honestly, I think he could be a guy who takes enough free throws right away like the way he plays the aggressor is especially if he is spending more time, you know, nearer around the rim. I think he'll take enough where that is something we have to consider. And that was the case in summer league, too. You know, the three point shooting was night and day, the free throw shooting was subpar in college and even worse in a small sample in Vegas.

13:00So we talked about AJ Mitchell, he's next on the list and I'll Brandon Pajewski qualified as well. If we're talking about it, Pajewski, I always need to see the floor to you. Nobody is rostered more Brandon Pajewski, I feel over the last couple of years. What's the state of the union on pots? Why why go off the train now, you know, 82 games played last year career highs across the board, 23 years old, this team is bad. We're not we're not jumping off the train now. Look, curry, there was an update stuff, Curry's knee issues are, I think the term was lingering or there's a worry that they're lingering knee issues. Obviously, he's he's old, Dremons old, the whole team is old, Anthony Melton can't stay healthy. How much do you trust, key Santos to play or Yaxx, a lending board, who I like as well, and I think should be rising up draft boards. Look, man, I'm going to keep drafting pods because his game is actually very fantasy friendly for both points leagues and category leagues, mostly category leagues. But you're just looking for a potential, you know, waga Steph Curry misses 30 games, which would not be crazy. And then pod steps in and, you know, just he can he can put a box course stats.

14:09I think we always talk about this with lenders, I think on one of our recent videos, one of us said something to the effect of man, there's there's a world where lenders, could be the Warriors number two option for months at a time, given the potential injury situations. I think the number one option during that time would be Pajewski in theory. Yes, I mean, it really depends. It's crazy on how much that depends on how good yaxx, a lenders, board is right now. But yes, he could be he could be leading that team. Damien Lillard is climbing up draft boards, his ADP is up about four spots in the last month, now going in the early 80s about pick 81 on fan tracks. You've been kind of driving the strain for a while. I officially hopped on board a couple of weeks ago in one of our videos, like man, if we could get Dame, this late, I think we are getting to a what's the downside equation, you worry about the age, you worry about the injuries. I think that's one of the weirdest kind of back court situations in the NBA, although I will say the shade and sharp injury as much as it sucks because we love watching shade and sharp. That does help solve this a little bit, but you're still looking at scoot Henderson drew holiday, Jama Rans plus Damien Lillard, where does he fit into all that for you?

15:17Yeah, I think really early in the process this year, I was doing some mock traps before we even had ADP data data and he was being taken. I thought way too high. I think he was being taken like the fourth round in some places. Now things have settled into like the 80 range, but I'm coming around on the idea of him, you know, taking him around that range, or even earlier because look, the I, you, in theory, you do not want to be taking a 36 year old coming off in a killie's tear, not ideal. But the worst he's ever ranked in eight cat per game value is 40 if so worst he's ever been in his career. And so even if you're thinking this is a career worst year for Lillard, what does that look like 60th per game or something like that and maybe you get lucky any plays 65 games. And do you trust Jama Rans and they don't have a tongue of other offensive options as many guards as the port Portland trailblazers have like drew holiday. I think he's going to take a step back and I don't trust scoot and everything like that. So I'm warming up more to the idea of reaching a little bit for Lillard in some drafts.

16:20I don't think it's all that different from some of the discussions we've had about Kyrie Irving, where yes, it takes a leap of faith. Yes, you might miss a bunch of time, but you just look at the track record with this guy and you're not asking for 77 games like if you get what 65 out of Dame, are you getting ROI on that pick. Yeah, I think so. I think so. Yeah, okay. So Damien Lillard moving up the board. All right, the next two guys were to that jumped out to me Alex. I like one of these players. The other, I'm a little cooler on, but I'm surprised that both are rising. Right now and we'll talk about him in conjunction. Jaden McDaniels and Paul George. So Paul George now going about one pick ahead of McDaniels on average, pick 76 overall. McDaniels at 77. We haven't seen nuclear rises, breather of these guys. We're talking about three or four spots over the course of a month. You know, I always saw Jaden McDaniels was undervalued. So maybe this is moving in the kind of moving in my favor. But I don't know if we're going to see this continue to rise because I think the addition of Jonathan Kominga, you and I share our skepticism of him.

17:23I don't think that's a good thing for Jaden McDaniels. So that's why I was a little bit surprised to see that ADP. It is unfortunate that the mega so it's ever well felt like they had to sign Jonathan Kominga and promise to start him. And those guys are not, they're not totally dissimilar players. Just just that Jaden McDaniels is like a much, much better version of Jonathan Kominga. And but look in theory, Kominga is still taking shots away from him. And it's just another situation that prevents Jaden McDaniels from again, having the ball in his hands more. I don't think it's going to affect his minutes or anything like that. And they needed depth, you know, because the guys they were going to be relying on if they didn't sign Jonathan Komingo was not a good situation. But I think I think Jaden McDaniels can actually continue to rise. I'm not too scared off by this Kominga thing. The main reason being that the team still doesn't have that many good offensive options. Like, yeah. And especially if you do not trust Lamello ball to stay healthy, I think I think if you're someone who's like, I don't trust Lamello to play more than 55 games or something like that.

18:26Then I think because of that, you have to like Jaden McDaniels because when Lamello is out, then it's Anthony Edwards number one option. McDaniels number two option. Maybe to sumo gets in there. Yeah. That's the thing is you still have to sumo kind of hanging around like there's, there's not a ton of complete depth on this roster. Once you get beyond the top five or six, it looks pretty ugly, but I think you might need multiple injuries now for McDaniels to like really step into that that role that we saw at times when when Edwards was down. Last season. So I'm, I'm still on McDaniels and the bottom line for me was always that the guy barely misses games. He's always performing better than you expect. He continues to improve as a player year over year. None of that has changed, but cool and off a little bit with the addition of Kominga. The other guys Paul George. What is the case here? Is it is it just, you know, Boston kind of has this system where they do tend to get the most out of guys. You know, someone like Paul George could become an ultra high volume three point shooter this year. Why are we seeing him rise? I don't know why we're seeing him rise to be honest with you. I don't, I don't think I'm not saying that this is a bad spot to draft them necessarily because we are in the upside zone.

19:30And I think Paul George can still be a top. I don't know top 40 per game eight cat, maybe better nine cat because he doesn't really turn the ball over. But this is another situation where I think there are guys going in this similar range that are not as dangerous and have also have great upside, which is kind of what confuses me about his rise. It's not, it's not like a great situation for him. It's not really any better of a situation. Do you, do you consider the situation to be like meaningfully better for him than it was in Philadelphia? No, if Joe Ellen beat was healthier, I would say maybe this is better, but because you're just assuming that imbeads not even going to be out there for 60 to 70% of the season. I don't, I don't think this is better. No, I mean, again, I think he could take a ton of threes. I think in a category league, all of a sudden, he could be taken like eight and a half per game. And maybe you get some help there, but there's a still Jason Tatum's team. I think they reaffirmed that this off season. Derek White still going to have his say I think Peyton Pritchard takes a big step forward. So it is a lateral move at best and probably a slight downgrade for me.

20:35Yeah. And the Celtics proved last season that they should be able to be a legitimate Eastern conference contender, at least in the regular season without Paul George need to extend like the 76ers last year. I know Paul George only played 37 games and some of that was suspension, but they legitimately like me to be out there 30, 35 minutes of game. They needed every moment of availability from Paul George because they were dealing with some of the other injuries like and be the Celtics. I don't think they can rest Paul George. They don't have to extend his minutes. So I, it's not a better situation for him. Okay, we got one more guy on the list are top 10 ADP risers in the later rounds. Kobe White, another player we've talked about a ton, another player you and I have been drafting a lot of early on. Are we, we just started to see people kind of come around to the fact that, all right, Charlie kind of cleared out this roster. We're not necessarily against what they've done, but with how they've now aligned things, Brandon Miller, I think is option one conca nipple is option two. And now's read maybe option three Kobe White kind of co-third option. I think we go back to Kobe White playing point guard not playing like Lou Williams mode off the bench like he was last year.

21:46Yeah, I mean, I think this team's going to kind of spread the ball around like they don't really he's not a true point guard. They don't really have a true point guard now. So I think I think Kobe White can be there. I mean, he's, you know, he's average five assists a game in his career before. But I think the main thing with him is like we've seen him be, you know, around 60 to 80 in category leagues. He's just as Gogan points leagues 32 33 fantasy points per game. And they just need him like you you alluded to it. They're back up point care situation is down a shooter and Christian Christian Anderson. So and I think Kobe White can also play the two a little bit. You know, there might be some light ups were now's reads playing the five. Shrouders playing the one Kobe White's in at the two. So I think there's plenty of reason to be in on him. Yeah, I think we might get the best of both worlds where he is he's functioning more as a true point guard. Even though he's not, you know, we're not talking seven eight assists per game. But he functions more as a true point guard with the starting unit. He could still be, you know, in other alignments later in the game. He might be your primary score with with certain, you know, certain guys around him. So I, you know, last year between Chicago and Charlotte. He was at 17 and a half points per game in 25 minutes per minute. I think I'll have a tough time replicating that.

22:54But I don't think it's out of the question that he could be 20, 21 points, 4 1 1 1 half, 5 assists. Maybe he gets to one steal. I think you get to three three pointers per game, especially if Charlotte plays like they did last season. I mean, Lamellabal was leading the NBA in three point attempt rate. I don't know if they want to fully replace that with Kobe White. But, you know, I think they understand the math equation that you have to win. So I'm all in on Kobe White. And I think a guy who could probably shoot a better at the line this year too was down to 81.7% a year ago over 90% two years ago. Yeah, and he was dealing with injuries almost all of last season in addition to the trade. So you just you kind of throw last year out and then look at his previous two seasons in Chicago and use that as a starting point. So he should be draft around pick 80. Yeah. Yes, is Angus Maximus. This partner has one pound of a pound of hot. She'll see cooked to water and just speak. It's more face to the quarter pounder. The battle of clothes and for only 599 even regular dudes can afford it like that guy. You get that big old man. Yeah.

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