Keys to Kansas Taking Down Utah: Can Lance Leipold's Jayhawks Pull Off the Road Upset of the Utes?

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1:01MyLos money expires 30 days after issuance, subject to change. Credit offers subject to credit approval. Which Jayhawks and Youets are going to have a heavy hand in who wins this game and what are the keys to KU Going on the Road and pulling the upset? You are Lockdown Jayhawks. You're daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. What's going on Derek Johnson here? This is Lockdown Jayhawks. We continue with our KU preview as we get to the keys to the game between Kansas and Utah. We'll get to our players to watch. And we'll finish up with our hawks, the sore KU players we think could have a standout performance in this one. I'd overgene check out our preview episode from Wednesday with a crossover episode this morning. Now this one coming out and then we'll have a match-up episode coming out on Friday night as well to help get you ready for this game. Let's start with the offensive keys for KU football.

2:02Let's start here. Put the linebackers in a bind in the passing game. The Utah linebackers have racked up a good amount of tackles so far. But when I look at some of the different numbers on this, their safeties have really been the excellent piece of the defense and the corners have matched. Jackson Benny has 29 targets against as a corner for them, which is a lot through four games. Teams have been targeting him. I don't know why because he has given up 10 catches on 29 targets for 79 yards. So less than three yards per target. It has not been very successful going against him. And then you've got the safeties playing well for them. Meanwhile in the passing game, the Utah linebackers have been targeted 35 times. They've given up 23 catches for 222 yards. And honestly, that's really not that bad for linebackers. Obviously linebackers are going to be worse in coverage than DBs. It's only 6.3 yards per target.

3:04So like, honestly, it's really not that bad. But the rest of the team has a yards allowed per target of 4.95. You can see there is a sizable increase in what the linebackers have given up compared to what the DBs have been excellent to this point are allowing. And so this is where the KU tight ends. This is where the KU running backs in the receiving game. This is where your interior receivers, whether it's a slot or a receiver like can pick it, come into play. Can you put the linebackers in a bind in the passing game? Can you beat them this way and would that be a way for KU to move the ball offensively? The other one is beat them underneath and intermediate. And some of that stuff can be a bit of crossover. There could be beating the linebacker with an underneath throw or with an intermediate throw or with a play action attempt that you get them to suck in. But teams have not found any success on Utah in the deep passing game so far this season.

4:05Collectively, the four opponents that Utah has faced has gone three of 20 on deep passes, which you're going to have a lower completion percent on deep passes. You're not expecting to only complete 15 percent of your deep passes. Three of 20 on balls, 20 or more yards down the field for 73 yards in an interception. So things are not going well against teams trying to throw the ball deep. I think part of that is going back to in line with how well their safety is are playing. Now KU has thrown the ball downfield actually pretty well so far this season. It's more the consistent stuff that they've struggled with. So maybe this will be the best team that Utah has faced in terms of throwing the ball downfield and maybe some of those change. But when I think about KU having to win a little bit more consistently underneath, again, and then you tie in the beating, the linebackers, it's Carson Brune, it's Dylan Edwards, it's Cam Pickett out of the slot. Those are the three that kind of become the most important pieces here. And honestly, maybe that makes them the most important pieces of the game for KU because

5:08Pickett is your guy who can, Utah has done a good job tackling so far this season, but Pickett is the guy that can maybe break some of those tackles. Carson Brune becomes a fulcrum in both the run blocking game and trying to beat some of those linebackers in the receiving game. Dylan Edwards becomes a key piece at both, both running the football and receiving the football. I think that's the other one. And then the next one here and again, I think this ties in a little bit because for you to be able to have long drives and have consistent playoff, and so it does involve some of those things we just mentioned, but I think in general, can Kansas sustain drives. You're not going to be able to rely on just explosives to go up on the road and compete to win this football game. You're going to have to have long drives, long drives dealing with the crowd noise, dealing with the fanfare. And KU has been so good at getting explosive plays. Kansas is in the 91st percentile in explosive play rate offensively according to game

6:09on paper. But the problem is Utah is in the 90th percentile in explosive play rate defense. So as good as KU has been as getting those explosive plays, Utah has been pretty much just as good at preventing those explosive plays. And so if you can't rely on explosives, would it's a strength on strength? Maybe one strength wins out, but maybe it ends up neutralized here and lies the problem for the Kansas offense. KU is in just the 27th percentile. You want a higher number there in non-explosive play EPA. What does that mean? It means that on a down to down basis, on a play to play basis, when you take away the big plays, this has not been a consistent offense. This is not an offense that typically is staying on schedule or staying ahead of the chains. The biggest reason why Kansas is in just the sixth percentile nationally in success rate passing. Again, success rate, you're just getting half of the sticks on first and second down,

7:12you're picking up the first down on third and fourth down. Right? That's what success rate is. Just the general measurement of how successful you are on a play to play basis. This has not been consistent on that play to play basis throwing the football. For them to compete and have a chance to win this one on the road at Utah, that has to change. I think to that notion, if you just want to use this as a key, Isaiah Marshall has to play again. The beauty of Isaiah Marshall is we've seen the highs. The highs are really good. If he can have the highs more consistently, then you do have a chance to steal one on the road here. We've also seen the lows. If the lows happen too often, then that's going to be a problem. I will say Marshall too. He's got to have a good day on the ground. I think we saw KU use that a little bit more against middle Tennessee state. We saw what they did running the football against Utah season ago. He's got to be able to replicate some of that. Some of the defensive keys for Kansas in this game, defending the run game and containing the quarterback. I'm lumping this all together in one because in essence, it is stopping the Utah run game.

8:12Kansas has been really good stopping the run so far this season, right there. The 99th percentile rush EPA per play allowed the 99th percentile in stuff rate defensively. Utah has been really strong running the football. This is going to come into play defending Wayshon Parker, who is one of the best running backs in not just the conference, but in the country. Specifically, Utah has had a lot of success running to the outside, left to the outside and right to the outside. We'll touch on that a little bit more in our matchups episode coming out on Friday night. That'll be a key. You think of defending Devon Damper. They'll even throw Bird Ficklin in there. They'll use two quarterbacks at the same time, even on the field at the same time. Ficklin's a lefty. Damper is a writing and that complicates things. Both guys can throw it. Both guys can scramble. Can you contain them in so far? Because the interesting thing is, Damper hasn't had a low 100 rushing yards getting 30 ishbird game. He hasn't had to beat a lot of teams with his legs.

9:14We've seen throughout his career. It's in there that if he needs to run for 80 yards in the game, he can. Right? To that same notion, I think Tackling is going to be huge here for both teams. KU has done really well. So far, Tackling this season, it's another animal going up against Damper and Parker. Then, here's the... Can KU corner finally get an interception? In general, I think this one more so goes, can KU dare I say maybe even force multiple turnovers? KU was able to force a turnover against Middle Tennessee State. It came on a fumble that KU was able to recover. KU has not had an interception in... Was it eight or nine games at this point in time? I think it's nine games now, eight, nine games, whatever it is. KU has not got an interception from a corner specifically since the last time they played

10:14in the state of Utah, which they went up to the state of Utah to play on the road against BYU and actually pulled the upset against a top 10 team on the road. That was the last time they got a corner interception. It was from Mellow Dotson. I'd be curious to know the last time that the KU defense forced two turnovers in the semiaum because they forced one exactly in three to four games. How far this season they didn't force any against Arizona State. I think what we're partially learning here is the D.K. McDonald defense is not really one that's going to force turnovers. It's been really good this year. I don't want to take away from that. Let's see. You'd have to go back to September 20th when KU beat West Virginia, 41 to 10. The last time the KU forced multiple turnovers in a game. The only other time it's happened in the McDonald era, they had three of them that they forced against Fresno State. Just two games with D.K. McDonald is the D.C. where you forced multiple turnovers. If you want a chance to win this one, I think that's got to change in this game. Let's continue on with our players to watch player matchups of note between the Kansas

11:15J-Hawks and the Utah Utes that next. Today's episodes brought to you by Indeed. When workplace chaos hits and you need the right hire, Indeed sponsor jobs helps connect employers with candidate to match specific needs like skills, certifications, and locations. The less time gets spent searching and more time gets spent finding the right fit. People are finding quality hires unindeed right now. In the minute I've been talking to you, companies like yours made 27 hires unindeed, according to Indeed data worldwide. Whether it's deadlines piling up too much on one person's plate or trying to scale something really quickly, the right person can completely change how a team operates and that's why getting in front of qualified candidates matters. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates to check all your boxes, less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right hire to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed sponsor jobs. And listening to the show, we get a $75 sponsor job credit to help get your job. The premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast.

12:15Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast now. Support our show by saying you heard about it on locked on J-Hawks. That's Indeed.com slash podcast terms and conditions apply. Need to hire this a job for Indeed sponsor jobs. We're also brought to you by Odo running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together. It's an app for counting another for inventory and other for sales and somehow none of them seem to talk to each other. That's where Odo comes in. It's an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one powerful platform from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing. Everything works in one place. Odo's one platform to manage grow and scale your business. The best organizations know that success isn't just about talent. It's about having everyone working toward the same goal. That's true in sports just like it is in business. Think about moving Kaijian Cummings Coleman over to the running back room. He apparently approached Lance Leipold and was like, I think I can help out here. We're a little thin there. We saw him look pretty good against middle Tennessee state. Enough so where I'm like, okay, do we get this dude some carries against Utah and moving forward

13:19the rest of the season. It took everybody being on the same page and developing a plan to make this happen. Even if it's not on the fly plan, even if it's a quick plan, great organizations win because operations matter. That's why you should get Odo. It is a one platform to manage grow and scale your business. Try it for free at odu.com slash locked on. That's odu.com slash locked on od.co.com slash locked on. Thanks for joining us here on locked on J. Hawks. Let's get to our players to watch. We'll start with the home team. The Utah you two are going to be having a white out in this one. I'll start the offense. Wayshawn Parker. They're running back his 50 carries for 328 yards. So 6.6 yards per carry. That'll get it done. He has also got five touchdowns. He is in the 96% tile for running backs in EPA per play. He's in the top quartet. He's in the top quartet of qualified running backs in yards per carry. Success rate, second level and open field yards.

14:21So able to get it done at that next level, right? Make guys miss explosiveness. And he's in the 99th percentile for running backs and receiving yards with 154. So you really got to be able to guard him on the receiving end as well. He's also fifth among the 36 qualified running backs in the big 12 in yards after contact per carry. He is seventh in breakaway percentage. I mean, anyway, you skin it. There was a lot of stats that throughout you, but like, here's the easiest way to put it. He is one of the better running backs in the league and that's going to make your hands full, right? He was done really well stopping the run. This is probably the best running back that you face this season. I mean, Jamal Roberts from Missouri is pretty good. I think I take Parker over him. So, you know, that's another challenge. Devendium Peer is the other one. This is either the best or the second best quarterback you face this year. We'll see how it shakes out at season's end, whether it's damn Peer or Simmons. Damn Peer a little bit different than Simmons, right? Like Simmons is just get the ball out quickly. He's got a howitzer of an arm. I mean, he's a, you know, pitchers can throw like 95, right?

15:22Damn Peer is a really good passer too, but he can also get it done scrambling and maybe not as quick or maybe not as strong of an arm as Simmons, but still, depth enough as a passer because you're talking 70% completion rate over a third of the game. 70% completion rate over a thousand total yards, 11 touchdowns just one pick. He's tied third in the big 12 in big time throws and he's compared that to having a 0% turnover worthy play rate. That is interesting. He has an interception, but a 0% turnover worthy play rate. So, I don't know if it was tipped up in the air. What? But he is a second to munk quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks and pressure to sack rate as well. That tells you that even if you pressure him, no guarantee you're going to bring him down as he's really slippery and able to get away from the game. Last year, he was good in Lawrence like you would think that with Kansas having a shot to win that game. You would have thought that did damn Peer throw a couple picks or anything like no, he played a clean game. He had a 303 total yards and he had three scores with no interceptions in the win that he had in Lawrence.

16:22So that would be a tough guy for K you to slow down on the defensive side. A lot of guys that could have gone with the first one I decided to choose is rabbit Evans. That's great name rabbit. 14 tackles sack pass break up interception and a fall more recovery. So this is dude who, you know, I guess where's many hats in terms of how he has an impact for the defense. Among the 41 big 12 safeties with at least 100 snaps played. He is the second highest rated on profile, both focus with an 81 grade. He has the highest coverage grade of that lot. And he has not missed a single tackle this season. He is an excellent safety. And then you have edge Lance Holtsclaw. I think Holtsclaw gets a little overshadowed by some of their other key players on defense. And because, you know, he's got solid numbers, but they don't jump off the page. It's 11 tackles. It's one TFL. It's no sacks. It's two pass breakups. But if you look to pressures like pressures is essentially the equivalent of hard hit balls and baseball. Right.

17:22There's no guarantee that a hard hit ball is going to be a hit. And you should keep hitting the ball hard over and over again. Like eventually, you feel like you're going to get hot and some are going to poke through. And that's how pressures are. Pressures don't always turn into sacks, but like the process of continuing to get them usually leads to sacks. And he leads Utah with 14 pressures. He is tied fourth in on the team with seven stops. And if you look at the big 12 players among the 51 edge players who have 100 or more snaps. His pressure number is third best in the conference. So this is a good defensive end. Don't be fooled by the fact he doesn't have any sacks. They're going to be coming at some point soon for whole squad. You just hope it's not this week. Now, for KU, their players to watch. We're going to start with Nick McMillan on the offense side of the ball. 14 catches, 250 60 yards, two touchdowns over 18 yards per catch. And among 60 big 12 wide receivers with 10 or more targets. He is second in the league and profile, both focus grade.

18:26He's also second in receiving grade. He's also top seven in average depth of target. So he's getting down field. He's also top seven in York, per out run. He's been really good so far this season. Teams have started to be aware of that and tried to take him away a little bit more in recent games. This is a game where you need him to have a monster effort. And that would really help Marshall with some of the consistency if he can do just that. The other guy to watch for the KU offense is Dylan Edwards, 50 carries, 296 on the ground, three scores and 98 receiving yards. This is fun among big 12 running backs with 10 or more carries. Edwards is in the 65th percentile for yards after contact per rush. You think of a more of a speed guy, but he's been able to break those tackles as well. He's top 10 in runs of 10 or more yards and yards per out run. He has a really high total of receiving yards this year. He's coming off his best game of the season. Can he have a big time performance for KU to help them stay competitive here? And then the defense aside of the ball for Kansas, Leroy Harris, 18 tackles, seven tackles for loss, one sack, three past afflictions, three force fumbles,

19:28and a fun more recovery. He is the highest rated defensive end in the big 12 on profile, both focus his second in stops and PRP, which is profile, both focuses metric to basically pass rush like productivity, like how productive are you on these past rushes? So he's been excellent. Utah's got some big linemen. This is your opportunity. Go on the road and continue to get noticed by sure NFL scouts and everything, right? And then Jayland Todd is the other one eight tackles, one past afflection. Is it low 60s, profile, both focus grade, which is interesting because he is clearly KU's top corner. And teams aren't really testing him. He's only given up seven targets all year. Those teams are like looking at the film and just being like, no, I don't even want to throw his way, right? He had a good year last year. He only got seven targets, only 40 yards, so less than six yards per target. He does have a tough matchup if he's assigned to Braden Pagan, who is the leading receiver for Utah. But going back to that stat, like in a KU corner, finally,

20:28get an interception. Can Jayland Todd kind of swing the game in that area? Are player matchups Utah left tackles, Zerui Williams versus the KU defensive ends? Whether it is Harris, whether it is David Santiago, who's been stellar in his own right, Dak Brinkley has been getting pressures weekend and week out. Williams is the starting left tackle for Utah. He's got a stellar 89.7 past blocking grade on profile, both focus. He's only given up one pressure in 125 past blocking snaps. This is strength on strength. I'm excited to see that matchup. And then you have Cam Pickett against Jackson Benny. Benny has interestingly enough only average-ish profile, but it's weird because he is the leader in the big 12 among corners in NFL pass a rating against. There's another site profile on network that has some former profile, like focus employees that went over and made their own site, did a different grading system and do their own film review stuff. And he is actually listed as one of their most impactful players by that grading system.

21:32So I would buy that. He's their main nickel corner. He's really good and for KU, Cam Pickett, you know, it would be really helpful if he has a big game, but that's going to be easier said than done with Benny. Let's get to our Hawks, the sore and some other quick notes of news. We'll be right back in a moment. This is Locked on Jay Hawks. We're brought to you today by Fandall Sportsbook. Welcome to the most rewarding NFL season ever only on Fandall. How rewarding are we talking more rewarding than a touchdown with time expiring more rewarding than an 18 point comeback. Maybe even more rewarding than an offensive lineman catching a touchdown. This season, Fandall's making an exciting opportunity for you that goes beyond what happens on the field with the all new Fandall rewards club featuring exclusive offers, surprises and more. This season, Fandall's making the excitement even better where you can every week check the Fandall app to see what is waiting for you. Right. And so you can bet on futures for the upcoming college basketball season, upcoming NBA season to just started NHL season.

22:35You can get in on the daily action with all the MLB playoffs going on. You like a certain line. KU is getting 15 and a half points. We're going to get to our best bets on Fridays episode, right. And certain player props, the catcher, I the over under. You can find all those over at Fandall plus by joining the rewards club. You're getting all sorts of great boosts. And I think we have like continued football games like every night for the next like X amount of weeks, right. So make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandall visit Fandall.com to get started today. With the discovered cashback card, it's payback time when you earn cashback on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cashback at different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cashback at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to discover terms applying. See discover dot com slash five for details.

23:35Some quick notes before we get into our hawks to soar. Bart Torvick released his preseason, woman's basketball rankings. And it has Kansas woman's basketball at 35. This needs to be an NCAA tournament season. It's some eye nickels. Finally, you're at KU assuming, you know, she's going to go off to the WNBA. You can't go through some eye nickels career without her having to make it as a freshman regardless. You cannot go through her upper class years without making an NCAA tournament like that just cannot happen here, especially with now Julia Davis is a sophomore to right. KU baseball scheduling note. Man, KU baseball is really loading up the noncon. Not just this exhibition season, right? We already knew KU was going to play Florida, who's one of the, I guess I kind of declared them as like, I feel like they're like a blue blood of college baseball. Vanderbilt is like the new age blue blood of college baseball. Like they're one of those teams over the last couple decades has just like constantly been really good. And it really invested in the program and been on the leading edge of using data and college baseball and stuff.

24:40So Kansas is going to be playing a midweek game against Vanderbilt on the road on May 11th. That'll be really cool. And obviously we know KU is going to be playing Oklahoma, Southern Miss. You're supposed to be good Florida. So that Vanderbilt matchup should be a lot of fun. I mean, if you can make it out there, right, you get to go out to Nashville in the game. So that should be a ton of fun for everybody and seeing a good match up there too. All right, our hawks to soar for KU football. Who are some KU players? We think our setup to have some success. I do think Isaiah Marshall can have a little bit of success running the football in this game. By the time we get to best bets on Friday, I don't know where that line is going to be as I'm recording this right now. You can get the over on Isaiah Marshall at 29 and a half. Now, if Utah has a sack party, that's going to make that more difficult. But like he had more than that last year is the backup quarterback, right? Utah this season has allowed 12 quarterback scrambles for 83 yards, about seven yards per scramble. So I do think that Isaiah Marshall can find some success on the ground.

25:41The other one might be a little bit of Dylan Edwards, but I don't know. Like down to down, it might be tough. Utah might be able to win on the line of scrimmage and get a lot of stuff. So TFLs. One site I saw had Utah at a 28th percentile run explosive play rate defense. So maybe it's a game where Edwards, you know, it's zero. It's one. It's two and then he hits like a 20 order, right? So maybe some explosive for Edwards there for the KU defense. There hawks the store. I think the Blake Harold and the Kansas defensive tackles can make some mayhem here, right? There's going to be a lot of attention paid to those outside matchups and to Harris Santiago, Brinkley and even Bray and deservedly so. I think Utah, the strength of their own line is is once again this year, just like last year, more in the outside than it is on the inside. For instance, Utah has six players who have played at least 50 snaps between left guard, right guard and center. Now, the amount of players that they've had playing those snaps, I don't know if part of that is rotating guys.

26:42I don't know if part of that is figuring guys out. I'm sure a big part of it is just they've blown their opponents out so they're getting a lot of guys in the game. But here's a distinction of those six players. None of them have a run blocking grade higher than 64.7 and half of those six are in the 50s in their run blocking grade. I do think the Blake Harold could get a TFL in this game. I think Marcus Calvin or even small one of those guys could get a TFL in this game. Do even see like Calvin Thompson get his first action as a J. Hawk. I think that'll be interesting. So I think the KU D tackles can find a little bit of noise in this game. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown J. Hawk. So you can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. Don't forget, check out our crossover episode or our top storylines and Utah scouting report from the other day. I'll have our top matchups for KU Utah coming up tomorrow. Thanks so much for joining us and seeing it. See you next time. On Koushe, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position for a limited time.

27:43Download the Koushe app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10 KAL S H I Koushe trade on anything 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information see koushe.com slash regulatory. Call us footballers back so Hilton called to me the superstition concierge to make your fan rituals a reality need a room to match your lucky number. We got you want to make sure our team doesn't wash your lucky jersey. Oh, that smells lucky. Hilton's unmatched hospitality can keep up with any superstition even a marching bandwick up call it 555 and 55 seconds. Hit it! When you need a team that will do whatever it takes on game day, it matters where you stay. Hilton, for this day. 5 a.m. I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink running 12 miles today grab a green juice quick change and head to work meetings workshops one more Celsius no slowing down working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing.

28:50Selcius live fit go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius dot com. Hey, it's Isaac Shade your host of Amazon Fire TV's College football kickoff joint Kenyan Barnard Jesse Holly myself and the local host of the Locked On Podcast Network each week on Fire TV throughout the season to preview the biggest matchups across college football. Search college football kickoff on the fire TV app.