Is this a war, or a reminder to US and Israel that hubris kills?

0:00It's the tip of the spare in the epic battle to defend the United States of America. The National Security Hour exposes the wolves and sheep clothing and then a various plots to undermine and destroy U.S. National Security. Welcome back to another episode of the National Security Hour on America out loud. Talk radio and I hot radio the voice of freedom the out loud truth where you come to Himalayan until experts America out loud talk radio plays on your heart radio network. You can also listen to them on our media player from anywhere browse anywhere in the world. Best in class apps as you know Apple ad joy to Alexa. We stream 24 seven lot of new shows now. We have a lot of articles videos and so on so remember it's America out loud dot news.

1:00America out loud dot news and it's the 250th anniversary of America and 10th anniversary of America out loud dot news and we're happy to be back with you live Monday 8 p.m. Dr. Mike Colonel Mike first of the five shows on the National Security Hour and tonight we welcome back Professor James Dorsey who's out there in Southeast Asia. James welcome back. Oh, it was a pleasure to be with you Mike. Thank you. It's always a pleasure to have you sir. Thank you. James a lot has gone on since you've been back with us a couple of weeks ago and you just wrote recently a sub stack that was really good last week but again this is so fluid. It's almost daily or hourly. Why don't you give us an update of there's there's a lot of rumor to desalination plants and before we went in recording you said that's not on the table yet. So why don't you open it up for us and thank you for coming back for sure all of this falls into the context of Donald Trump's declaration that he is in negotiations with the

2:04Iranians and believes that an agreement is possible and on that basis that he would postpone his deadline for US attacks on power plants in Iran if Iran were not to open the straits of the moves fully within a period of 48 hours. The issue of the water desalination plants when it comes down to is this. In the war water desalination plants were very briefly in the picture. That is to say the Iranians claimed that there had been an attack on a desalination plant of theirs on an Iranian island and in response there was an attack on a similar plant in Bahrain. There's been nothing since with regard to water desalination plants. In the last 24 hours have reentered the debate because the Iranians have said that if their

3:09power plants were attacked they would be attacking similar plants in the Gulf States and that could affect water desalination plants so that's where you are. I think the larger picture here is that I would be very cautious and we can discuss this in detail but I would be very cautious about the prospects of an agreement between the United States and Iran. Obviously it's a positive sign that there's some sort of contact even though that really is exchanging messages between Iran and the United States and I think that Trump for one but many others are reading perhaps too much into that. Dr. Mike, I think that's correct, the problem we have is that it seems to me that we're about

4:09played out in terms of military ordinance reserves, our ability to control what the Israelis do. And I listened to this morning about three or four hours ago a discussion that the Iranians have said in one way or another and I'm not sure what the veracity of the thing is but they're threatening to hit the desalination plants on U.S. bases as well as desalination, what's the other one? Water, or they know that water desalination is something else anyway to not focus on anything in the Emirates that belongs strictly to them but the things that supply Americans with electricity and water and they said the Iranians have it all mapped out, it's been planned and they

5:16didn't know if they were going to use it or not. So if that goes according to the they had a military officer talking, a former military officer, if that goes on and they're successful or even partially successful, it really makes the American presence in the area in the region problematic and I throw that in for what it's worth, it's just a single report but the other thing they added was that and some of the countries in the Emirates are in the region. The American system for electricity and fresh water is tied into the local system so there could be some sure to be some public disruption also. So I don't know where we go from here, I think the ultimate admission that we have not many places to go is the dispatch of 2500 Marines to take

6:22on 90 million Iranians. It's kind of a desperation thing, it seems to me but it all may work out but it just doesn't seem likely. I don't think it's 90 million Iranians, Mike. I think it's, hang on a second. James, take one second. Mike, I don't think it's 90 million Iranians, I think it's a, you know, probability IRGC or the Iranian command. I mean, if you add all those people in but you know, to take on the military with 2500 and what they have in equipment, that's a whole different thing than 90. Go ahead James, I'm sorry. Yeah, before we get into a broader discussion just to clarify some things, the Iranian energy minister spelled it out very clearly today and what he said was, Iran has 150 hour plants and keep in mind that this is a country of 1.6 square million kilometers

7:25and that whereas the Gulf states, so with other words, its power grid is decentralized, whereas the power grid in the Gulf states is centralized and so all you need to do is take out one power plant in one of these countries, Saudi Arabia probably being the exception but in the smaller Gulf countries and you've inflicted enormous pain and damage whereas in Iran that would take much more and yes, obviously the facilities on US bases are tied into the local grid and the local water system. So if you take out the central system, that will affect the US bases too. Mike? Well, it's in short and I think what that means is they got to spare the short hairs. Yeah, but I think we need to talk about what is really going on in terms of an effort to end

8:34this war and what happens if the war, if those indirect talks fail. I think that's really the the question that that puts you going on. James, that's a good question. What do we have going on indirectly and do we know who's indirectly going on in these talks, going on with these talks and then we could touch on what happens if it fails and we hope that. Well, my reading is my reading is if you look at the start by looking at the truth social posting that Trump did in which he disclosed these talks. The conclusion that I drew from that one was that there is no agreement on anything substantial. Trump based this on quote the tenor and the tone of the exchanges

9:35that had taken place and then if you go to his remarks particularly at an airport in Florida on Monday just after he posted on truth social when he was traveling to Memphis, Tennessee, my take from that was that he is totally misreading the situation, miscalculating and has no understanding whatsoever of Iran. What he basically said was that he expected Iran to accept his conditions. He focused on nuclear. He barely mentioned ballistic missiles. He talked about the major issue on nuclear being the 440 highly enriched kilograms of uranium that the Iranians have. Had the illusion that once you have an agreement with Iran

10:43that United States troops personnel could go in and retrieve those 440 kilograms, he also had the illusion that there would be some joint U.S. Iranian control of the state of Hormuz. Said it would be him and the Ayatollah, whoever that may be, would be managing the state of Hormuz and he envisioned he said he was talking to interlocutors, Iranian interlocutors whom he did not identify but who were highly credible and respected and essentially would turn Iran into another Venezuela. As far as I'm concerned, that's pie in the sky. That is to say, that is not to say that there could be an agreement but it's not an agreement as he envisions that. It's not going to be on those terms and it's not going to be an Iranian

11:49Venezuela by any stretch of the imagination on the contrary. I think that the focal point of the war at this point is the straight of Hormuz and Trump doesn't have any good options. His only option is if these talks fail that he expands the war and then he has there are various options, various military options in terms of how we would try to either rest control of the of the straight from Iran or in any case be in a position to have a great degree of influence on what goes through the the straits but we'll have to wait and see what happens with these talks first. All right, so we're on with Dr. James Dorsey who has the Middle East report on sub-stack and you got to want to get on that one because that's a daily and sometimes a couple times but it's

12:51it's very well done and it has a lot of things there and we're coming up on the break at this point his first segment went so quick. Yeah, I don't think I think maybe Trump should read his own book man the art of the deal because so far he doesn't have any art and there's no deal. You know, the only art he may have is what's hanging in the the Oval Office right now and the people around him it also James you know I'm not really into this doing foreign diplomacy on truth social or X or whatever else is out there you know when it comes to this kind of thing you know I'm more of the old school closed the door back door channel love rough type of thing where you know nobody knows what's going on until we know what's going on you know what I mean it's just this is almost like a high school you know a high school school yard the way it goes on and a lot of this a lot of this is back door I mean it's you know it's the array it's the Turks it's the Pakistanis the Egyptians

13:57the Amanis who are basically messenger boys sending messages back and forth and what Trump did on on social on truth social was essentially announced it and well all the packies in this I heard was it two days ago somebody said to me that the packies may be the ones to close to close the deal I don't know if it's true or not but somebody mentioned that two days ago look I don't think first of all I don't yes the Pakistanis are in it and the Pakistanis are in a particularly difficult situation first of all they have a 909 kilometer long border with Iran which is a very festive border it's got two it's got a Balochi province on the Iranian side it's got a Balochi province on the Pakistani side in both provinces there are

14:59nationalist militants who at times have been supported by the United States and on top of that it has not only a longstanding military relationship with Saudi Arabia since last year it has a mutual defense agreement yes that that essentially has the equivalent of NATO's article five in other words one the attack on one an attack on one is an attack on the other so if you were to graduate to a situation and that's not impossible should the talks fail in which Saudi Arabia possibly the or and and and the UAE decide that the their defensive posture with other words intercepting missiles and drones isn't good enough that they have to start retaliating depending on what form that retaliation takes

16:03Pakistan would be legally bound by the treaty to come to Saudi Arabia's aid and let's not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear armed country took the words right out of my mouth I was just about to say that hey we're done in the last minute and a half we're going to be coming up on the second segment don't forget now this is where we take the break for two minutes and you get to visit the shop and we have a lot of articles and we have a lot of books and a lot of products and the only way we get the freedom of speech on this network and the first amendment and it's the true first amendment freedom of speech network America out loud dot news and just visit our shop we have a lot a lot of new products by the way a lot of new sponsors and we have a lot of new hosts and guests and shows so we're almost James Dorsey live with Dr. Mike and we're going to take a quick break for two minutes thank you for hanging in there with us the conversation will be warming up again after the second segment and we look forward to seeing you in a couple of minutes thank you very much we'll

17:06be right back we'll get ready my fellow Americans July 2nd 3rd and 4th America out loud dot news in partnership with clear and the wellness company invites you to Nashville Tennessee for a red white and blue celebration you'll never forget we're saluted 250 years of America and 10 incredible years of America out loud news stand in strong for truth justice and the nation we all love three days of high impact speakers powerhouse voices delivering dynamic unforgettable insights that will fire up your patriots spirit and on July 4th embrace yourself because you'll experience America's most explosive fireworks show lighting up downtown Nashville and pure patriotic glory you can reserve your spot with early bird pricing right now at america out loud dot news forward slash Nashville it's America out loud news 2510 and Nashville even the smartest food on

18:09the planet doesn't come from a lab or in a package it grows in a class jar I'm Doug Evans author of the national bestseller the spout book sprouts deliver up to a hundred times the antioxidants of mature vegetables they grow in just three to five days for under a dollar serving get your spouting kit at the spouting company dot com slash out loud use the code out loud for an exclusive offer gross smarter one and three people will face cancer and most never see it coming I'm dr. Kelly victory with the wellness company and I know this personally I exercised daily avoided processed foods and had no symptoms when a routine mammogram resulted in a cancer diagnosis and modern medicine is often reactive instead of preventative that's why I formulated shield a two-part system designed to support immune health and antioxidant defense a chemical free cocoa mix and soft gels prevention is power visit twc dot health slash out loud and use

19:12code out loud for an exclusive discount in just two minutes per day you could reclaim your health and cut your grocery bill in half with one simple convenient product our doctor formulated green 85 juice formulas powerful dose of ultra concentrated essential nutrients stops hunger in its tracks and supplies your cells with what's missing in the grocery store food go to chemical free body dot com forward slash out loud today get nature super multivitamin green 85 empower your immune system cut down on your grocery bill and save 20% on your first order all right welcome back on the second segment of dr. James dorsi live in Thailand and Dr. Mike and Colonel Mike and Shana though a valley where spring was just coming then we had two days of summer and we're back to a late autumn kind of weather I would say let's continue James now you wrote a few things the last week and you're you write really well

20:16and you have like a great one of the great sub-stacks on what's going on in the region yeah why don't you take something from the sub-stack and share it with our audience if they're not uh subscribe to it you know they may want to subscribe to it go ahead well let me uh let me point to two things uh first of all as we were talking about the potential for an agreement between the United States and Iran that's a double edged sword uh for the uh for the Gulf on the one hand obviously they they want an end to the to the war they want an end to the uh Iranian attacks which have um jeopardized their economic and their their economic diversification and development plans it shattered the Gulf's reputation as a stable island and a secure island which was key to those plans but also key to their positioning as a hub for not only transport

21:22look at their airlines finance but also for data centers um on the other hand what they're concerned about is that an agreement will leave in place an Iranian government that is on the one hand of course significantly weakened but has maintained regime cohesion and could be angry vengeful and therefore continue to pose a more imminent threat and so that's one part of the the um the equation the other part of the equation is what I mentioned in in the in the first segment that if this continues with other words if the war continues then um you could see the Saudis the Emirates getting engaged uh offensively now that for the

22:23Iranians would constitute a paradigm shift because the Iranians basically believe that they're on the winning hand the fact that Trump wants to talk even though he claims it's the Iranians who want to talk uh the easing of sanctions on oil that has already been loaded onto tankers that are that are at sea uh is as far as the Iranians are concerned evidence that their strategy of increasing the pain on Israel on the Gulf states on the global energy market on international trade will eventually uh generate the kind of pressure on Trump in which he is forced to back down if the Gulf states get engaged militarily in this conflict and offensively then that uh that

23:26strategy is undermined because obviously the Gulf states at that point will not be pressuring the United States to immediately end the war on the contrary uh I think that's one aspect of it a second aspect of it is what happens if uh the talks fail I think at that point Trump has no choice but to try and rest control of the straight of her moves from uh from the Iranians um Mike earlier mentioned uh it would be 2500 marines against 90 million people um you know that that in whatever form could be true if the United States were to opt for the most risky strategy towards the straight of her moves which would be trying to take control of the Iranian shoreline along the straight um the other more more realistic option I think in that and for that

24:32they don't really need um uh that many troops would to take control of islands at the mouth of the straight of her moves particularly three islands which were occupied by not by this government but by the Shah in 1971 and are claimed by the United Arab Emirates and that those islands would be far easier to um to defend and a subversion of that could be that it's the United Arab Emirates who reclaim territory that they have long felt is theirs backed up by US troops um the other the other uh longer term I think I think to keep in mind is whether or not this leads to a new all of this leads over time to a nuclear Middle East in other words that countries that on the

25:32one hand the Iranians may be you know there's long there's been a debate for some time in Iran on whether or not uh they should go nuclear simply as a form of deterrence and obviously they have far less deterrence today uh as a result of uh uh the severe damage inflicted on their military facilities by the United States and Israel and of course by uh the fact that their um non-state allies particularly his bolla um have been severely weakened even though his bolla is performing in the in the war in Lebanon today uh and so on the one hand there's that thinking in Iran but there's similar thinking going on it for example in Saudi Arabia and that becomes more relevant whatever happened oh let me put it this way whatever happens

26:38once the guns fall silent in this war uh it's going to change or have an impact on the regional security architecture I think on the one hand you're going to see tighter relations with the United States uh security relations even though just or despite the fact that the United States is perceived as unreliable and despite the fact that the presence of um US forces in the Gulf has proven to be as much of an asset as it is a liability the Gulf states don't have an alternative they have no other options but you are going to see a diverse some degree of diversification of security relationships you're also going to see a greater emphasis on regional collective arrangements and at and efforts at greater self-reliance and then a nuclear deterrence would fit into that

27:40perfectly well who had Dr. Mike James what do you think about popular views among whether Sunni's or Shia's of the fact that they they clearly have the Israelis in a very tough spot and they're hurting them badly is there is there not a tendency to think why don't we finish these people off I don't think 50 years of this I don't know the answer to it myself but I just it seems to me that it's an opportunity that many will consider gold in opportunity when you say finish them off we're talking about Iran correct right no we're talking about Israel sir okay well in the Arab world is there not but would there not be speculatively an idea

28:41that we've never gotten this fire we've been kicked and assassinated in all these things for all these years why not finish it off if we can well let's first of all before if I go turn to Israel there's some thinking in the Gulf with regard to Iran in fact you have intellectuals people like Abdul Halik Abdullah in the United Arab Emirates who in recent days said was asked what he would say to President Trump and he's someone who reflects government thinking in the UA and his response was finish them off Mr. President let's get rid of this kind of regime so there is that kind of thinking towards Iran I don't I think yes I mean there are people in the Gulf who would love to see Israel finished off first of all I don't think that the Gulf estimate is that Israel is on

29:43the ropes by any stretch of the imagination and I think that's in a correct assessment I think there's a greater assessment of Israel being as much a threat to the stability of the region as is Iran without a doubt but in both cases in both cases their threats with which the Gulf states believe they have no choice but to live with you know they're not going to jeopardize they I don't think that they see any realistic possibility of finishing off Israel in the way that theoretically you could finish off Iran to use those words but and you know and and Israel still has a lot to offer them to militarily technology on multiple of surveillance on multiple fronts and that's

30:45something they still certainly the UAE is taking advantage of and others would like to do so too well doesn't Israel have on the table James the iMac the India Middle East cooperation agreement to run from the Middle East to Israel to India I mean that's that's that's on that that's on paper yeah that you know that's on paper is that to circumvent the belt and road or just make another another belt and road no I don't think it has anything to do with circumventing the belt of road as much more integration that would work in their favor you know the Gulf states are part of the belt and road they don't have a problem with that right and as a matter of principle the only aspect of the of the belt and road that is problematic

31:46and in some ways it'll be interesting to see how that plays out as a result of the Iran war was technology cooperation with China which the major Gulf states with other word Saudi Arabia the UAE in Qatar had essentially abandoned when they decided that artificial intelligence technology they were going to go with the United States and let's keep in mind that when when Trump visited the Middle East in May of last year he went back home with $3.6 trillion in yes over four or five years yes you know that's an incredible amount and and you know that was based on the on the Gulf states having chosen the United States rather than

32:49China as their major technology partner yeah that was that was a big tech and medical over I think a period of three to four years investment I know someone that was on that on to Raj some of those agreements were over 10 years somewhere over the less but nonetheless irrespective of that that's a you know those are highly unusual sizes of investment pledges yes and in an industry and I think one of the issues is that the Gulf states also believed that that would buy them a degree of leverage but when it came to pressuring Trump not to engage in this war it didn't really amount too much yep well it's a wait and see at this point go ahead Mike yeah it's a wait and see and it's also a political issue Trump is going to have to make up his

33:55mind about them can he take the mid midterms with this work continuing over the summer or does he have to do something that he doesn't want to do but in terms of political survival must do I and I don't know the answer to that I still think there's a lot of Americans who you know don't like what Trump is deep how he has deviated from what he promised but to look at the other side and think you're going to jump over and vote for them as a replacement is also hard to rationalize Trump's fundamental problem is that he needs to demonstrate both to the American public but also to the international community that this war was a victory now the Iranians are going to define victory as survival of the Islamic Republic exactly and in many ways they're not

34:56wrong about that on the other hand for you know nuclear is not going to be a undisputed victory given that Trump declared in you know has declared for the last eight or nine months whatever it is since the 12th they were last year with Iran that he had obliterated the nuclear program so it's hard to defend this war as having eliminated the the nuclear program the same is true for ballistic missiles no doubt Israel and the United States have severely damaged Iran's production capabilities reduced stockpiles but Iran still is despite Trump's claims is still firing missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf States and we don't really know to what degree

36:02those production facilities and stockpiles have been damaged or destroyed well I think it was publicly convinced in James two years ago I think it was public information about two years ago they set up some kind of cooperation with Tajikistan to to build I think armaments and ordinance in that country yeah that's correct that's correct so ballistic missiles isn't an undisputed victory we're not going to see regime change we're not going to see Venezuela so the only thing that really is has the potential of being a credible declaration of victory even though the problem was caused by the war in the first place is the straight of her moves that's it it's international economy and as Clinton said or was it George Bush or you better off than you were last year

37:04you know it's all about the economy and we don't have a great economy here and I'm sure it's you know not that great in Thailand and other parts of the world wow this segment went by so fast we're going to take the two-minute break for the commercial and then we're going to come back for the final segment with Dr. James Dorsey live with us and we thank him for coming back on interesting conversation so far gentlemen and I think that's in the bottom line it's all going to reflect on what some people call fossil fuels and with others coil crude oil and right now a lot of that stuff is moving around Africa the reselling the refueling so what we can't do that forever because they're not built for it yet and we'll still have to deal with Kormuz and the Houthis and the Saudis and everyone else and we'd be back in two minutes are you looking for a healthy snacks but you've had enough of all the sweet sugary energy bars good news there's new

38:07bars to try that savory crunchy and packed with goodness bear bars are based just on six simple natural ingredients a certified organic veggie nut and seed bar that's low temp dried never baked or fried bear bars are plant-based gluten-free and loaded with nutrients and protein head over to bearbar.com slash out loud and get the exclusive discount just for America out loud listeners that's B-E-A-R-B-A-R dot com forward slash out loud oral hygiene hasn't changed in 50 years but our diet and the way we eat has creating an environment in your mouth for bacteria to wreak havoc on your teeth and gums for better oral health get spried dental defense and oral Caroline designed to combat acid creating bacteria the toothpaste mouth washments and gum all

39:10contains isle at all and natural ingredients shown to dramatically improve oral health spry can be found online and at all find natural retailers all right welcome back to the final segment you're on with Dr. Michael Shoey 8 pm Monday with curtleneck on the national security hour every Monday 8 pm eastern time and this is our final segment with Dr. James Dorsey live with us he's live in Thailand all right who would like to go first gentlemen Dr. Mike or James go ahead let Mike go first thank you sir I just don't see this coming out clean clean enough to say the Americans got their way clean enough to and still in still fear in anybody for if there is a deal for crossing that deal it's this is a

40:15situation where we have made most things impossible and the one thing you hit is not what the one is most things you say are very very very good very true but we're we're watching what happens when your diplomatic capacity dies we sent the same clowns to deal with Putin over Ukraine and now we've sent them to to and obviously in Iran they're gonna they're gonna believe I think that these guys are reporting to Netanyahu as much as they are to to Trump so I don't I just don't see an end to it we've expended we've demonstrated the power we have and it's still not enough and I think to take on any country the size of Iran in an effort to break

41:21it you need land forces and we don't have them and and I think there's a sorry go ahead sir I think there's a more fundamental problem which is Trump has changed US foreign policy and the US foreign policy today operates on the principle of might of might is right and if you Marshall and Amada haven't tremendous display of American military power things happen and that worked in Venezuela it worked in Panama it worked to a degree in Greenland and the Iranians whether one likes them or not are the first ones to stand up and say we don't care we're not intimidated and you know if this means war so be it not we want

42:24but so be it yes the second the second fundamental problem is that you know three weeks into the Iran war Trump has not realized or continues to overestimate his ability to impose his will on others and over to overestimate the ability of the United States to to impose its will on others what what Trump successfully has done until now or until yeah until the war is that he's also in some ways changed the nature of international relations he's put himself at the center of the web and countries try to avoid getting on his bad side and try to get on his good side to earn brownies and the first time that you really had a revolt against that was with the Europeans the Japanese

43:30in the South Koreans fundamentally saying rejecting his demand that they join the United States in ensuring free passage through the state of Hamus right and what I saw in particularly in his remarks immediately after his truth social posting regarding talks with Iran that that same overestimation was still the operating is operating principle yes and I think that's what sets the United States up for failure yeah James I think that what I would call it is we we live in the the cult of world war two is especially Trump the demonstration of that Armada ought to be enough in their minds to make everyone quiver and shake and it gave Whitcalf on the eve of the

44:33of the of the war said as much he said that Trump was curious that Iran with the marshalling of the Armada had not capitulated well I think and I think it goes on well past Trump though goes on to past presidents it goes on to their the military command structure it is it is a it's it's almost a demented kind of world view that because except for except for past presidents republican or democratic we're more realistic about it right right they had less they had less numerous they had a they had a greater degree of self-reflection yeah none of which Trump has he seems not to and you know I think that's the fundamental issue yeah it's where

45:34it's where personalities count well the one the one place where unfortunately I think the cult of of world war two is is still very strong is among the populace in the sense that once we're committed in our troops are in danger it becomes increasingly easy to manipulate them we haven't heard for example any really loud demands to know how many Americans have gotten killed or wounded so far they in the whole time that Ukraine has been going on there's been no demand to know how many Americans have been killed wounded captured by the Russians and it's an odd situation to me and we know both in both cases we have had significant casualties

46:36and yet I don't know I'm sorry I don't know I don't know that that's uniquely American maybe not sir maybe not times times of war you see a lot of rallying around the flag to some degree you see that in Iran I mean you know while a majority of Iranians want change not necessarily regime change but they want certainly want change you also have a significant amount of the population that doesn't that not to say that there aren't those that do want it but a significant segment of the population that doesn't want to see change on the back of Israeli and US fighter planes well that that's exactly right but what I there's all these situations that come up and you wonder how the people you respect the people who are also Americans we have not won a war since 1945 why do any what does anyone think that this military establishment can develop to

47:43can deliver victory without nuclear weapons there's there's no reason for anybody to be surprised I think with what happened here unless we had a tremendous intelligence failure and we didn't know the extent and capabilities of the Iranian missile program and I don't know the answer to that one but to expect the American military to win anything except you know a side show like Venezuela is is a big it's a big leap of faith at the moment let me ask James it's question Mike so James what kind of feedback you have all right they said the Israelis meaning the Israelis they said they had embedded Mossad agents for years in Saudi Iran that were pretty much on a high level and they might have been there for many years they might have grew up there we don't know but how was it that they didn't know that they had these capabilities to run these drones that

48:44they were running that everybody was surprised about supposedly right and you know is that a reality did they have the people in there they if they did they didn't share the intel with the American intel community because everybody out here seems kind of shocked that you know the Iranians had the capabilities to do the damage that they did and also I would just finalize it by saying I don't think Israel thought that what happened to them in the last couple of weeks would happen to them you know the military capability but also to defend themselves I think Iran penetrated pretty well and you'd agree they hit some cities in in Israel and did some damage but did they really have that many Mossad agents and did they keep the intel from America remember we always have this cat and dog or cat fight between the CIA the Pentagon the FBI and the Mossad in America

49:47I would I would beg to disagree with you down the line first of all the Israelis in intelligence terms have penetrated Iran significantly and they've done so for a long time they I mean the killings of nuclear scientists over the years the capture of those huge amount of nuclear related documents that they transported back to Israel yes the killings that you've seen during the war all of that demonstrates significant Israeli penetration so how was it that we didn't know about these wrong yeah let me let me just continue and the same is true for his bullet where I think the problem lies is on the both on

50:47the Israeli side and the US side on the Israeli side they're you know having the penetration and understanding what you're seeing are two different things and I think that that's where and you know go back to the 1970 the run up to the 1979 revolution in Iran the same was true for the United States the information was there but the political understand the understanding of it was not and even if it if the understanding was there among the intelligence analysts and others the political that was not necessarily what the political level wanted to hear in the case in this in the case of the Iran war Israeli intelligence actually got it wrong in terms of understanding what this all would entail and basically misadvised Netanyahu

51:59and he went with that 40 advice to Trump on on top of which I think that Trump wanted to believe what he believed irrespective of what he was being told not only by the Israelis but by his own intelligence service or services as well as the military so this is really not so much intelligence failure although the as I mentioned the Israeli intelligence got it wrong in terms of the understanding it's a political failure sounds good to me go ahead Mike yeah I think it's a it's a it's a it's a monumental failure in a lot of different directions and I just speaking from being in the intelligence community for a long time there's not a real effort to understand foreign countries in the way to insist on analysts and

53:05operators understanding the foreign country to the maximum amount and then using that and explaining to policymakers what they're facing the the the the the real crux of learning in the American much of the American intelligence community is knowing what not to say even if you believe it because it racks the boat and it makes political leaders mad and it endangers budgets and anyway if it all goes wrong we're still the United States of 1945 so there's a you cannot underestimate the lack of knowledge of foreign countries within the US intelligence community and especially you can't underestimate it with all the people that are responsible for

54:08conducting foreign policy I mean I've never been part of the intelligence to any intelligence community so you can speak to that obviously far better than I can but having over my career talked extensively with intelligence analysts on various aspects my you know my and also watching what happens my my experience has been that you're talking to guys who know what they're talking about the problem with it is that politicians and policymakers have different criteria and they want whatever they hear to fit into what what their objectives are what they're trying to achieve and yes you're probably right that that has career or can have career consequences

55:14it's interesting in the Israeli case because one of the things that for a very long time a not sure it still is that to that degree but for a very long time certainly up until the Gaza war one characteristic of the Israeli military was that you were supposed to you were expected to challenge your commanders if you disagreed and that at the same time authority was delegated to relatively low levels within the military and in some ways the Israelis had in that way had had shielded themselves against the kind of problems that that you were you were just described maybe that's changing of course because you now have and certainly an authoritarian leader in

56:20Israel if not someone who would love to see an autocracy let's general we ran we ran out of time we're over time I don't want him to edit this I thank you James coming back on I thank you all for joining me I thank you the the listeners for joining us on a mission in national security hour is the tip of the spew in the epic battle to defend the united states of mergers