This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. 

To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro).

Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.

Content Highlights

• The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14);
• Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34);
• We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05);
• Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11);
• Background on the guest (22:02);
• Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03);
• A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30);
• How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu;
• Substack: Stay Vigilant;
• CommonStock: Stay Vigilant;
• Twitter: @ExcellRichard,