Fed Signals NO Rate Hikes🔥Treasury Is Buying Back Debt Again

0:00Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all only at McDonald's. Radhikes are off the table. Let's break it down today. There's two big factors that we're going to cover that will give you some insights to where the market could be moving. Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor and that's I Trust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency stocks, gold and silver all available over on I Trust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while. You guys can go over and use them. If you have a current IRA, you can transfer that. If you want to start a brand new IRA, you can also do that as well. So just use our link down below. It's going to give you a $100 funding reward to get started and you're going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you should be doing to set yourself up for success.

1:00One thing, of course, you've got to look at is what's going on at the PCE inflation. This eases down to 3.4%. So it is cooling and possibly the case for another fed rate hike is out of contention. And I think one of the things you have to consider is when you consider inflation and the fact that we were expecting 3.7 versus 3.4, this starts to line up with Kevin Worschen, where maybe this would give them a little cover going into the October FOMC meeting. And this gets into the point of whether or not it's going to actually change their strategy on how they look at rate hikes or rate cuts or pauses. One thing to look at is how the Fed is trying to consider the data that is coming in on it. And this came in in reference and around the PCE inflation of how the Fed is dealing with this. One was portfolio management and investment advice, understanding that that's not going to be inflation. I'll explain that in a second. Computer software and accessories and then legal services.

2:02These were the ones. And one of the things is if you have an investment, it goes up, that's not inflation when your fees are charging on the investment that's just gone up. The question is right here. For software, the US now uses a broader composite for legal services, which is an unpublished CPI series is being replaced because it had become unusually volatile. So what does that mean? We don't know, but this is the data points that the Fed chairs are actually looking at. And they estimate the methodology alone could reduce core PC inflation by up to 20 basis points. Remember, we're from 3, 7, 3, 4, that in itself, if you add that on, this could be getting closer to the target of inflation for the Fed. So how does this play out with the market? That's the real question. If you look at the polymarketing on this, it was an immediate flip, which just a few days ago, that was a 25 basis points increase probability at 69%. And of course, after this data on the PC, that has of course

3:03plummeted down to only 37% and the no change has now accelerated up to 63%. So looks like the cover for the Fed is going to happen in October in terms of a no rate. And that could change things around a little bit. The Fed already raised rates in September, back to back hikes are very much on the table. This was something that was still put out as to whether or not it would happen. And I think this is the challenge that a lot of people understand is that we haven't really seen much in the way of rate hikes going into a midterm or traditional election in November when it is in October, FOMC. And that has been in the case that the market is kind of considered. And now with this PC, PCE information, it starts to change things up quite a bit. Now Fox put out something that this is getting into how investors are preparing for a hike cycle. Or are they? Take a look. For example, Michael Barr, Fed governor, says while he expects GDP growth to pick up a

4:05bit in the second half of the year, he absolutely believes that it's a danger here that we have not reached the 2% mark of the inflation target that the Fed has wanted. We're above that right now. So what does that mean? I don't think investors are fully prepared. I don't think investors quite realize yet how entrenched inflation really is. And it's driven by the strong growth we've seen. As we sit here and look at earnings growth, that strong unemployment, that's near record lows, jobless claims, the lowest since the 1960s. You know, there's not a lot of data out there to suggest that inflation is going to go down. And I'm not sure after years of easy monetary policy and zero interest rate policy and low interest rates and disinflation that investors are really prepared for a higher rate environment. I don't think so. All right. So to his point is that most of the market right now has been looking at earnings season earnings is continued to fly. That has been pretty much the story for the S&P with exception of the fact that it's centered mostly around the AI companies.

5:09We'll talk about that in a second. One other thing that happens or is now starting to happen is that the US Treasury is planning to do another six billion buybacks in longer term debt again tomorrow. This is a big deal because the last time we saw these kinds of numbers, I want to show you something here on the Bitcoin chart. That was right there back in August. That's the kind of move we started to see now. Could that be the case with where we are right now with Bitcoin trading around 83 eight as we record moving into another face here. If you do actually see rotation coming out of the traditional markets and that I think is going to be the question going forward. Other news happened out there. Robinhood announced some big things at the hood summit. I'll kind of zoom in on that for you guys. A lot of things that you had anticipated 24 seven stock trading, including weekends. That's a huge deal. Robinhood agents now all lined up for research that can trade for you. OCU orders, 4X intrate margin. A lot of things that are getting and including Robinhood's social, which is

6:11rolling out now broadly. A couple of the things, but I think the really big announcements might actually be coming today. I'm going to be watching for those because I think there's going to be some interesting points that they will reveal today. During this announcement, they had an interesting video here. I'll let you kind of point it. Who were they targeting? Take a look. Is it just me or does it seem a little nervous? Q, he's very defensive. Brax commander, this is your last warning. Q and I have made it aboard the Brax ship. There are no life forms here. It appears to be a remote first ship with the Brax all working from disparate home planets. That explains there's slow reaction times. And a large portion of their staff are serving in middle management and coordinator functions. That must be why their ship is so big. It's all bloat. You want to blast it out of the sky? Yeah. Blast.

7:13One big impact on Robinhood's major competitor, Coinbase, also could play into exactly here around wrapped Bitcoin. What we're talking about is circles wrap Bitcoin, which has already grown to over 300 million in market cap, 252 million deposit into DeFi. This is accelerated dramatically. And it's very fast. It puts a lot of pressure on Coinbase in general. Other things that happened around this. This is where the market starts to trend. This, of course, was the AI accord, or should say the SI accord, because that's exactly what the administration is trying to do. And that is the typical Trump thing. Change the name. And they've got all of the people on the game. And, of course, that includes Sundar. We've got out of Google. You've got Anthropic in here. Meta Open AI. Elon with XAI. And then, of course, Nvidia with Jensen Wong. All these guys are lined up into drinking the Kool-Aid out of this White House. And I think the point is, where are we heading

8:15with AI? Are we getting into a risky investment zone? And I'll show you some things on that. But before I do that, I want to show you a recap here on that meeting. Take a look. And they're going to work with local communities for the data centers in particular. And they're going to work to make the community happy. That's might be supplying oil and gas. It might be supplying education. It may be helping teachers along financially, helping people along financially. And they've all agreed that that's a very positive. Nobody really thought of it. And it's a very positive thing. So you're going to see data centers are going to be very popular because this is the group and they're the ones that want to. And they're also the ones that want to see communities that are safe and happy. And they're going to, otherwise, they'll be forced to go overseas or other locations. To president, tell us why the world should not be concerned about AI. Why this shouldn't be guardrails. Because we have people that love our country and love the world.

9:18There's more than love, don't you, sir? No, it requires this and the smartest people in the world. And we had a great meeting today. Every one of them, we had a great, really a great, great meeting. It was something very, very special. We had the top. I'd say it looked like a group of about 40, but whatever it was, here's one of them right here, Justin and the video. And they love our country. They love the world and they came together and they did something that few people really, it's almost like a constitution in a way. All right. So you guys can kind of take from that. It was a bit of a cringe event. And the reason that this could be playing out for the crypto market is the pressure, I think, that it's putting on the traditional markets. The companies building the most powerful AI systems are already warning us that the technology is vassing faster than our safeguards. This came in from Warner who basically said, hey, the president is just basically renaming this. But right now, what we need to focus in on is getting at least some of this

10:21in some sort of framework or safeguards. Now, whether you agree in innovation, destruction, or not, some people would say, no, you just let this stuff go. And I think the idea behind where AI is today, the bigger point is how is this going to play into the markets? That's the concern I think we have overall. And when you look at this, Trump losing the midterms could be the trigger that pops the AI bubble. That I think actually might be in play here. Because remember, you've got politics and CapEx that pretty much line up as the two major pillars here heading into a very destructive fall that could start to set the S&P 500 in a downturn. CapEx growth only needs to disappoint Wall Street because if it does, and we see this kind of spending starting to become a bit harder, you're going to be seeing a huge move in the markets. And that is going to get into, I think, almost every other market out there. But if you look at this, a Democratic house and Senate would control committees and also could increase oversight in the AI. Now, would they

11:25do it? I still don't think that is going to happen because it is the government. So that's something that we're just going to deal with. But the point is, I think it's going to bring it out to the people and maybe get to a point where I think you could demand some things much like what we've done in crypto. Because I think the crypto market has been dictated a little bit by the voter. And if you look at the market in general, the S&P 500, this is the one that is being hurt right now. That's the S&P 500 when you remove the AI majors. And that's 58% of the S&P 500 stocks were trading below their 200 day moving average. This is the worst market breath since May of 2025 that we've seen. If we get a negative news or possibly some sort of regulatory pressure coming from what could be a regulatory play on AI, this could change everything in the game because a rotation could start to move into crypto, which is some of the things I'm watching very closely because

12:26the diversification is the question. And that's the problem right now with TragFi and most investors is they're not diversified enough, which I think they've started to step into crypto and digital assets. But I think this is just going to start maybe a new era going forward. And also join our free private member group, the link is in the description. Real innovation is powered by real people. This is Amics Corporate. Trusted experts, smarter technology, 24-7 dedicated support from day one to answer questions, helps set up policies and approvals, and consult on spend capacity as your business needs evolve. Plus, on-demand resources help level up operations at every stage. That's the trusted service you've come to expect. Built to simplify, designed to scale. This is Amics Corporate.