Facing Putin's Threat

0:00This episode is brought to you by Jira Byat-Lassian. Jira isn't just for tracking work anymore. It's how dev teams stay in control when AI agents are executing on the work. Assigned to your favorite agent, and the agent gets full context from across your stack right away. A pool request surfaces when it's ready. You stay in the loop and out of the weeds. See how teams are shipping with agents at Jira.dev. That's J-I-R-A.D-E-V. LinkedIn is pretty amazing at helping you grow your small business. We cannot stop your new clients from emailing you at 3 a.m. We can help you sell, market, and hire in one place. We cannot help you be in three places at once. And while we can't help you organize your calendar, LinkedIn can help you land more clients so you have a calendar to organize. Grow your small business on LinkedIn. Learn more at LinkedIn.com slash small business. Hello everyone, and welcome to Aman Boor.

1:02Here's what's coming up. Putin is playing with our peers. What we see is of course, some more attacks, better attacks, this kind of hybrid attacks. NATO, on alert, amid fears Putin is planning to test his resolve. I'd ask Estonia's foreign minister how they plan to protect their border and wars in equality, humanitarian catastrophes all on the rise. I speak to the man tasked with delivering life-saving aid to those in need. The UN relief chief Tom Fletcher. Then... This type of not understanding what was moving people in one direction or the other and reducing history to the lessons of history. From never again to a surging far right, is Germany increasingly detached from its painful past? ... ... ...

2:02... ... ... Welcome to the program everyone. I'm Priscian Aman Boor at the United Nations. The full lines in our world are widening. Cracks have become canyons. Those are the words of the departing UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. To the leaders who are filling the corridors behind me is the attempt to face up to the world's many challenges. Including the increasingly dire threat posed by Vladimir Putin's Russia. Fears have been mounting that he intends to push further into Europe to test NATO's unity and to form an chaos and fear amongst populations. From Poland's Donald Tusk saying, we all have difficult weeks and months ahead of us. To France where Macron holds an emergency meeting, Europe has been on edge now for over a week. Kiev itself came under heavy Russian bombardment yet again today.

3:04Justice President Zelensky was addressing the United Nations General Assembly here. But today, the US decided to invite Putin in from the cold. Here's US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio speaking earlier. So we've invited President Putin to the G20. We think it's an opportunity for him to engage not just with the President, but with other world leaders. We hope that's an invitation he'll accept. So there's an opportunity in December if that happens. If there's another opportunity for them to meet and there's a purpose behind the meeting, that would be good. So the country's most at risk from Putin's posturing are the Baltic States, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia which border Russia, and have all long warned of the threat from Putin and his war on Ukraine. Isn't it a attack imminent or is all of this conversation overblown? How do Western leaders navigate this dangerous moment? I asked Estonia's foreign minister, Marcus Cagna,

4:05when he joined me here earlier. Foreign minister, welcome to the program. Thank you for receiving me. There is a lot of talk in the air about imminent war in Europe. We've had some intelligence people quoted in the UK saying it could be months, not years, that Russia tries something. And a lot of it is centering around Estonia or the Baltics, which are the frontline states. How do you analyze this dangerous threat right now? Yes, of course, Russia is very dangerous. And we do hope that the war will be finished soon in the good ways. And the end of war is always dangerous because Putin is not doing well. But we are living on the border. We have been living here a long, long time. We see very deep direction. Now, intelligence is following carefully what is going on. And we don't see any movements on the military level, troops, relocation, or additional troops the other side of the borders. So my message is let's cool down. Putin is playing with our fears.

5:06What we see is, of course, more attacks, terror attacks, this kind of hybrid attacks. And Putin is targeting not Baltic states, because we are immune. Putin is not able to divide our societies. And we have no fear of Russia, because we know exactly what to do. But he's playing with our unity in the western part of the democracy. It's waging the attacks. No Germany, the Alive Sikh, many other things. So he's trying to divide us. He's trying to put us in a fear of escalation. So to be fair, it was Lithuania that experienced an incursion of drone into the airspace that NATO jets took down a long ago. So you're not immune. No, we are immune as a society. There's no panic. Putin wants to create panic. So drones, OK, we have another different attack, sabotage attacks in the region. But this is so connoeumality. We need to respond. We need to attribute. But there are two different things. One is full-scale military invasion.

6:08And the war, as you said as well, no war is coming. Not now, maybe in the future. If we're going to have a bad peace in Ukraine and just Putin have an opportunity to continue the aggression in Europe, but now there are tests. And so we need to be strong calm. Please listen up. That is actually the point. So you admit that it is testing. Can you just tell me you see no movements? What about the NAVA river? There was some talk, certainly by the FSB, that they're doing a control. They're not letting anybody there. Yeah, they were constructing somewhere 200 meters the coastline. So it's normal thing. We do the same. So these green men, they are always the other side of the border. The green men. Whatever. Green men, not green men. Which is, again, to be fair, everybody was saying similar things before the invasion of Ukraine. I mean, I'm not trying to sew panic. But you remember, there was, oh, not much movement on the border. Until there was movement. It was still to different. Lots of troops, the other side of Ukraine border ready. Just giving you an example. I was Defense Minister 2016-17.

7:10We saw the other side of our border in Russia. 120,000 troops ready to move within 48 hours. All right. And that's not an interesting thing. And that's all reason. We have no NATO troops. We have no Finland Sweden in NATO. We have no new defense plans for NATO. It's coming. We hit into the heart of Russia. And everybody lived in a peace life. There's emptiness behind it. So still to be honest. You feel secure about that. You just mentioned NATO troops. You know there's been a sort of a rotation, Trump has pulled troops out, and there's some troops going back. In big picture, do you have enough US and other NATO troops per the previous agreements, per the threat level, since the invasion of Ukraine in Estonia and the border? Years back and now, still to a different picture. And the Baltic Sea is internal aid for NATO. So Finland Sweden also, a permanent location of different nations troops to the Baltic States and Poland.

8:12So US is not like the combat part of these plans, what we have. But the US troops and flags are so important. And then they reviewed the location of troops in the eastern flank. Have we just got as well the confirmation from US side that pretty soon we have a new rotation coming in to Estonia and I think the scale of the eastern flank. So it is so important the strategic message to Putin, many of these times, and he's testing the nature. Do you get the impression? Because there's a lot of talk that comes from the United States. As you know, we, I don't know about Article 5, I don't know about defending. We're going to pull troops out. Pentagon says one thing. The rest of the administration says something else. Do you have a straight idea of what the defensive posture is? Your security posture, these are the NATO including the United States. Yes, we do now. But of course, this kind of strategic messages which are not supporting the unity and long-lasting understanding the strategic location

9:15of US troops and the distinctions between Europe and US they're not actually gaining this kind of clear picture and communication behind these red lines we need to keep. This is dangerous in the meaning that Putin may do this miscalculation he did in 22 in Ukraine. But now it's clear that the US is there and also I have no doubt about Article 5. Trump has been very clear about that and the last summit in Turkey, I should add as well. Okay, good. Now, you're giving us a sort of calm down. Yes, advice. But the Polish prime minister is doing slightly the opposite. The French president convened all their services and intelligence and defense in the rest to try to talk about an imminent threat or would there be an imminent? Do you, are you all on the same page? We live there. But my message come down is not that the message let's not do nothing. We need to prepare. This war will be finished.

10:15And then go. Why do you say that? There's no inkling. One day. One day. And it is so important how it will be finished. What kind of European security architecture we'll see? What kind of security guarantees from our side to Ukraine? But the other side as well, from Ukraine to us, we'll be there. This is so important. So that's why we need to increase defense penings, invest heavily to fool the caps for the plans what we have. So I'm not telling that they're calm down, do nothing. But don't panic because we don't see it coming right now. We don't see any negotiation that's going anywhere. On the one hand, President Trump is constantly saying it's going to happen. Even President Zelensky said that we're talking and I'm here and we're talking. But there's no there there. There's no like meat on the piece of the negotiating bones. Meanwhile, President Putin and his team are constantly saying, well, the latest was negotiations of peace discussions are on hold for the moment. We have had more than a year talks,

11:15but Putin just used this opportunity to win time and put more pressure on. I was in Ukraine just a week ago. And the reality is there is no... Was that when they sent drones in onto that? Yes, I had to be this trained. But President Zelensky came back from Canada and so had a meeting in the morning. So I missed the train. But the case is that this winter will be hard. There is no science that Putin would like to have any kind of meaningful talks. So we need to put more pressure on Russia's support Ukraine. So we need to organize the Ukraine recovery conference the end of this next January. It's the hardest and darkest time of this war, I think. So now we collect different frames and this political will... You have real deliverance, not just the conference. And so we need to focus on what Ukraine and South-Oskar now, anti-Palestinian capabilities in West Nance. Where are they? I mean, where are they? We've been talking about this for a long, long time and to be fair, you and all your partners have been saying, we have to put more pressure on Putin and the pressure gets ratcheted up

12:16and still nothing's from Putin. And the worst is now that there are apparently a death, a lack of these inter... You don't want defensive missiles, right? The Patriots and all the rest of it. They're running out. It's critical, it's critical. And we need to find somewhere. We have some stocks in the world. Money is not the problem for Europe, I think. But the case is that as well, Ukraine needs support financially to increase the capabilities for the deep strikes to Russia. It's really hitting Russia. Putin is not so secure. And after this so-called elections, of course, we're expecting what he's doing about mobilization. He's losing close to 40,000 men per month. So... So... Do you fear the... Well, do you think that there will be a mobilization? It needs to have manpower. Maybe not full scale, because it increased tensions in Russian society. But what we see around Putin is more concern than nobody around Putin. And we see very close to him, to Kremlin from Estonia. He's talking about the victory anymore.

13:17So this is good side, yeah. Really? So what are they talking about? And who is he listening to? They're talking about how to survive. You know, nobody left for retirement from Kremlin, except the Ruchovs. So this is about how to survive. So we need to have these strategic patience. Support Ukraine put more pressure on Russia. Maybe that will be a moment of when Putin is starting to have meaningful conversation with us and Ukraine. Going back to the whole issue of NATO, the United States, having your back. This week, Belarus, Russia's closest military, I like, conducted some large-scale exercises in the Suolky Gap, which is that famous gap that might be an issue. Brett McGurk, a former advisor to many administrations in National Security, said, ask yourself whether Trump would go to war with Russia over a patch of land called the Suolky Gap, if I'm saying it correctly, would Americans be ready for such a thing? The question answers itself. And that alone undermines deterrence. So what's your view on deterrence?

14:19The deterrence is real. So in Estonia, we see that that we are going to fight anyways. As Ukrainians, the same thing I think happens with Poland, all the other Baltic states, Finland, whoever, the Bermodic Baltic. So it's not the question about diplomatic talks, waiting another two, three weeks. So for us, from the border, to the sea, it's 200 kilometers. So, and then I'm sure that NATO will follow. I'm absolutely sure. So you're basically laying down the gauntlet. You're just saying we will fight. If we will fight, we are not taking any risks. We were there in 1940, no way anymore. Are your people prepared for this? Are you preparing your people? If you ask Estonia people, two questions, and we do it constantly. One is, should we fight back in the first, second? They say, 90 per percent. Yes. And then, are you personally participating? This is 70 per percent. It's the same level as in Finland's highest in Europe. We are all coming. So, and it will happen. But this deterrence works if Putin reads us all, right? In the meaning of having these red lines back up with power.

15:19At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, you told the Kiev independent that sometimes you like or you described as President Trump's brutal communication towards Europe. What did you mean by that? I mean that Europe has been decades as a lazy, bad, old cat, not investing to its own defense. I'm honest. Can I just call you lazy, fat, old cat? Yes. I will communicate that to the EU president. I'll say it before. When I say it to you. But the case is now, it was not unfortunate for Putin to woke up Europe. It was mainly President Trump who said that this relation is not unconditional anymore. We have said years as a Eastern country countries, we in Europe need to invest more heavily to defense. And now this brutal pressure on Europe, it is working. And not all doing, of course, but I think that the Germany changed the dynamics a lot last year. So this is something I think that Trump shaped the ground. And it said it's a positive view, what we see. Just a quick question, you just mentioned Germany.

16:22And it could have been in Poland, it could have in Spain, it could have been in France, basically right wing populists who do not support necessarily this war. And actually some of them are quite close, including the FD to Russia. And want to bring Russia back into the equation. Does that potentially change your political calculus in terms of what might Europe's posture be if these parties become leaders of these countries? Yeah, these dynamics are concerning, of course. And that's why I think it was so good that the German government attributed this Russian attack to this life-sequire port publicly. And all the Germans and all the other people in Europe should understand that Russia is already attacking Europe. Not attacking the Baltic States or Poland, but all Europe. So we need to talk about it. And of course, populistic times are everywhere in the world. And it's concerning, of course. And do you think when you're in here and you're talking to your partners and things like that,

17:23that actually stuff happens at the UN? Is it still the convening power, the talking shock, the diplomatic sense? Security Council is out of order. One or the other member state can better. So this is really concerning. But this general assembly, this is an opportunity to talk to global partners, to explain what is really going on. So this is a framework. But of course, we need to deal with that as a coalition of the willings or NATO or EU or this kind of similar countries understanding that this rule of law, what's all the world all this based on, it's in under the, not only by Russia only. We have different conflicts globally. For Minister Mark Zuckerner, thank you very much. And do you for joining us? Thank you. Thank you very much. And so we see you then. We'll be right back after the break. This episode is brought to you by EA Sports FC27.

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19:28It may feel like the suffering and the atrocities in Gaza have faded from view. But here, the United Nations General Assembly, the plight of Palestinians, has been raised by France, Canada, the UK, and Jordan amongst others. The French President in Manuel Macron called the world's inaction their shameful saying, what credibility do we have if we continue to remain inactive in the face of Gaza? And from Sudan to Yemen to Afghanistan, the world's most needy are increasingly going without. With countries increasingly looking inwards and international law being flouted again and again, my next guest has no easy job. Tom Fletcher is the United Nations Humanitarian Relief and Aid Chief. And he is joining me now on this important week. So welcome back to the program. We always like to take stock from you about the humanitarian situation. President Trump gave an address to the UN yesterday in which he touted the might of the United States,

20:30in which it really was sort of presented as a world where the strongest survived. He also said he was responsible for ending eight wars. But what does that mean to you? When you listen to that and you see that so much money is going into war and less and less into humanitarian affairs? Well, the United Nations was created because we've seen the risk of a world run by strong men and autocrats. So it won't surprise you to know that we're much more for finding ways to work together about the challenges that we face out there, including with our American partners. And I've just come from a meeting with the Board of Peace where we were doing exactly that on the situation in Gaza. But my worry right now is that the world's economy is on a war footing. We're creating weapons that are spiraling out of human control, artificial intelligence is getting out of our control. The climate is getting out of our control as we're seeing on our screens and Nepal was a reminder of that. So we need to step, we don't have time to mess around. Of course, everyone has their domestic politics. But this has got to be a week where we're actually looking at genuine outcomes that reverse some of those dangers

21:33that face humanity right now. Let me just ask you then a couple of those things you just raised, the Board of Peace. I introduced you with the dire situation in Gaza. What did you hear from the Board of Peace about actually meeting the material needs of the people of Gaza because despite it more than a year or so of a ceasefire, these humanitarian needs are nowhere near being met. Absolutely. The situation in Gaza continues to be completely bleak for Palestinians living there. And look, in the last year, we've been able to scale up particularly food. That's been the biggest improvement from when we would have spoken here outside the United Nations a year ago. So there are some improvements there, but all of us, the United Nations, the Palestinian leadership, the Board of Peace, we're all frustrated that we haven't gone further. Winter is going to be absolutely grim for people in Gaza right now. We need to get 90,000 family tents in. And the next week or two, we need to start clearing the rubble. We need to be allowed to bring an engine oil so that we can run our rubble clearers, for example.

22:34And the obstacle to all of this? Well, the obstacle is that the process is not moving fast enough through the phases. Why not? Well, we should be allowed to work anywhere we want in the world without any impediment. And we're still in this frustrating situation that we can't bring in everything we need to bring in. But you're saying that you can't? Why can't you? Israel is the occupying part. Partner is still blocking a lot of the material we need to get in and the partners we need to work with, including the NGOs and the whole United Nations family. But there is improvement. 33,000 kids went back to school at the start of this week. We're feeding half a million people every week. But the test of what we do in Gaza cannot just be that we do enough to keep this out of the headlines. It's got to be dignity, security, opportunity for the Palestinians there. And just quickly on Gaza, because obviously a final resolution, a peace agreement, not just a ceasefire, or a little bit better humanitarian, is going to be the test, right? Is there anything there, any progress that you can see

23:34in terms of the international stabilisatials, or actual security forces there, or Hamas disarming, or all the conditions that are required? We do have a ceasefire. And as a result, the situation is better than it was before that ceasefire and before President Trump's 20 point plan. After the GA last year, we went to Sharma Sheikh. I went straight from there. If you told me I'd be in Gaza, reopening bakeries. In November last year, I would never have believed you, even though we hoped we'd get there. So those things have improved. But still, 1,400 people in Gaza have been killed since the ceasefire. So it's not good enough. And we've got to do better collectively, and everyone agrees on that. So because we have all been observing that the United Nations itself is in somewhat of a... Are the people say somewhat of decline, unable to use the bully pulpit, unable to convene, all the constituent states that are needed to draw this? What is the border peace doing for you? Is it more than a talking shop? What does it do? What's this executive reality? Well, on the first point, we're not in decline as in our nation.

24:36The Security Council may be paralyzed, but my colleagues are out there right now, hitting the checkpoints, many of them getting killed for what we do. That's not decline. Like we are saving lives. We reached over 34 million people this year with life-saving support. And you know, we're not retreating from that work. But yeah, the Security Council has been paralyzed, hasn't it, for a long time. Now, on the border peace, you know, I was out the presentation today, and they've got big plans, including for reconstruction. And you know, with Palestinian leadership for those plans, what's called the NCAC, the technical committee led by Dr. Ali Shah. And it's, there's a vision there. There is energy there, and there is funding coming in, we hear for that work. And we want that to succeed. We have a Security Council resolution that mandates us to work with the border peace and to try and see that progress. But in the meantime, we can't wait for the politics, you know. 30 years ago, I started working on Israel Palastine as a young British diplomat. And a wise person, a wise old diplomat said to me, you've got to remember on this thing, peace is always possible,

25:36but there's always an election that prevents it. And of course, we're heading towards elections October 27th. And we're being told, there's nothing possible until after those elections, we can't wait. So let's think, there's another month of suffering for the people all over that period. And winter conditions will get much worse in that time. Now, you have put out a appeal, you said in March, you made a $23 billion appeal, aiming to help 87 million lives. You've held an event around all that. What is the upshot? We're making progress. We are raising money. I mean, this is what I'm trying to do here, because we talk about the wellbeing, dangerous and bleak, and it's all impossible and overwhelming. And I think people feel it's all somehow out of control. We're trying to do something extraordinary in the middle of that. 87 million lives is more people than died in the Second World War. And we're setting out to save that number of lives this year. And as I say, we've reached almost half of that number already. And these are in places like Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Marley, Bikino, Fasad, globally. And the world is responding.

26:37The money is coming in, and it's coming in behind a prioritized strategic plan. We've done the efficiency work to take out the duplication, to take out anything that gets between the taxpayer and saving lives. But my goodness, we've got to work harder to raise that money now. As you know, we're almost three quarters of the way through the year, and we're not yet on track. But would you say there's a bit of good news? That's absolutely good news that we've reached 34 million people with life-saving support. It's absolutely terrible news that there are over 200 million people that we haven't reached yet this year. And the space on the map, this really worries me, Christian, that the space on the map that somehow the world is not reaching is getting larger. And often people say, what happens without the United Nations? What happens without international humanitarian law? For many of those people we serve, that's their reality already. Look at drone warfare. Can I ask you about international humanitarian law and just international law? CNN did some exclusive reporting a few months ago about the killing of all those children and school workers in Minab, Iran, by the United States,

27:38at the opening day of the war. And it was said that according to the reporting, US military commanders essentially ignored or failed to pay attention to the outdated targeting and outdated maps and things like that. This is all part of what contributes to the so-called collateral damage, increasing the humanitarian disasters all over the world. And the Iranian President talked about it today. What is there to keep these countries that are going to war for whatever reason, from just sticking to the right targets? So international law is the scaffolding we have to stop humans doing terrible things to each other. It's why it was invented. It's why it was developed. It's why it's so fundamental to how we live together in the world. And this is not a popular thing. And lots of people will watch this and get very cross. But it applies to absolutely everyone, everywhere. There aren't countries that can somehow opt out of international humanitarian law. It's bigger than us and it's bigger than any one country.

28:40Are you concerned about the United States saying that they want to dismantle the ICC? Again, it's about international law. It's about holding individuals responsible for terrible crimes. Is that a problem that will make your life and your sector more difficult? Anything that dismantles international law that challenges accountability is a problem for our work. Because when you dismantle those protections, then it's my colleagues on the front line that get killed. And we've lost over 1,000 colleagues in three years. And I have to call their families. And the first thing they say to me is, will there be justice? Will the people who killed my husband, my wife, my father, my son, my daughter, be held to account? Will there be an investigation? And I'm afraid that I can't think of how many investigations that have really happened into these breaches of international law. So we need the lawyers and we need to hold to account the people who fire the weapon, the people who give the order, and actually the people who provide the weapon, sell the weapon. And maybe, particularly as AI comes more into these weapon systems, the people who design the weapon, too.

29:42Let me ask you, because you mentioned in the first answer, AI is one of the challenges and maybe an opportunity. A lot of climate activists and we're about to get the brunt of El Nino. We've had a pretty bad climate disaster year. That AI has suddenly become the thing that all these nations, even leaders, are talking about. And the climate activists are worried that the existing existential threat of climate is being pushed to the back burner. And that, of course, I ask you in relation to food scarcity and all of that sort of poverty around the world. Is that something you're talking about trying to balance? How do you deal with these two potentially existential threats? We have to do both. Of course, we can't ignore the climate crisis and we can't ignore the AI crisis. I worry that AI will be even less humanitarian than humans are, so it's great that we've got that fresh focus on it. You know, it was in person recently in Ukraine, seeing those AI powered drones and a chilling fact there is that as they reach the end of their battery life, they're more likely to hit civilian targets,

30:45because they feel that pressure on them to deliver. But let's, I was also in Gilgit, the quality salon recently in the high mountains. Yeah, we cannot neglect the climate. We cannot lose time on the climate crisis. What's happening in Nepal? Absolutely. But also, the AI often helps us there as well. We're using artificial intelligence to anticipate climate crisis. And we're using AI powered drones. I was in Venezuela recently after the La Guaya de earthquake. And we're flying in these drones to find survivors. So there's a positive as well as the negative. What is the next, the rest of this year, look like, the next three, three months or so, in terms of the pluses and minuses on the ledger of trying to reach your targets? It's a marathon, not a sprint. I'm going to go to the underfunded crises that don't get the attention that it's harder to get on your show or other shows. Marley, Bikino, Faso, Yemen. I mean, Yemen right now where we have 73 colleagues detained. So I'm going to go and try and do the diplomacy there, bring the visibility to those crises.

31:46And the funding. But also this week, I've shaken down every four of the minister I've met. Probably 30 or 40 for our ministers. And with each of them, I've pressed into the hands. You've shaken down. Shaken down. All right. Is that the right word? No. With each of them, I've pressed into their hand, this bit of paper, which has 10 diplomatic agreements that I need right now if we get them. And they're not super complicated. Give me the first. Stop interference in our work in Afghanistan. Let female humanitarian work. The second is keep the adray border crossing open into Sudan, so we can reach a million people in Darfur. And then they carry on. If we get these 10 agreements, we can reach 11 million people this year, who will otherwise die. And if that doesn't get people out of bed and get the blood pumping a bit, then I give up. But do you think they're listening? Will they read the 10 agreements, you think? So I can show you lots of photos of different foreign ministers pouring over these. And I'm trying to create a bit of competition as well. They're starting to say, I can do that one. I can't do that one, but let me have a crack at this. And using their collective influence,

32:47the winter plan for Gaza, making sure we reach half a million people in Gaza with the tents, the heating, the cooking oil that they need. These are all straightforward. I shouldn't have to ask for any of these things. But there's a coalition of foreign ministers who are supporting this work. And let's see where we get to. Let's make this week not about all the handshakes and what speech and who said what. And everyone running around in a kind of frenzy of activity, it's got to be outcomes. And there's an election coming up here for the next Secretary General. What does the next Secretary General have to do? Given what the current Secretary General said, that the world is becoming less ordered in his opening speech and urging a renewal, what do you think the next Secretary General has to channel to really make this a position that is listened to, that he perhaps the bully pulpit and somehow knock some heads together in that security council if it's even possible. Well, I mean, look, a lot of people, including me, have been speculating who's going to make the speech this week that catches fire,

33:48that really captures this moment and describes, gives the answer to that challenge. I tell you who gave that speech, it was this Secretary General and that's where he got a standing innovation at the end of it. And fair play to him for that. He's going strong. He's talking about running to the end of his 100, the next 100 days in office. But of course we've got that transition and we're very aware of that. The next SG, I think, has to carry on the reforms. I need to have fewer of us at the top of the system and more funding to those out in the field, including for the humanitarian's. We've got to be less risk averse on ending crises, a lot of people in the UN and around say, we shouldn't take the one out of 10 bids. They're exactly, it's the one out of 10 chances that we should be taking, because no one else is going to take them. And then let's get out there and save 87 million lives. Tom Fletcher, thank you so much for being with us. Thanks for the young. And stay with us, because we'll be right back after the break. LinkedIn is pretty amazing at helping you grow your small business. We cannot make your email response time faster.

34:49We can help you sell market and hire in one place. We cannot help you find space for your three desk drinks. Why do you have three? And while we can't help you find the perfect volume for your presentation video, LinkedIn can help you find the perfect audience for your business. Grow your small business on LinkedIn. Learn more at LinkedIn.com slash small business. This episode is brought to you by Caesar. If you're looking to serve your dog high quality dog food, just eat Caesar. Whether it's a protein rich beef recipe or savory chicken and vegetable dinner, Caesar offers a variety of delicious meals made with freshly crafted, slow cooked ingredients. All designed to support your dog's everyday nutrition without compromise. So if you're looking to serve a meal, your dog actually looks forward to every single day, they should totally just eat Caesar. Learn more at Caesar.com. Now, as we've been saying, humanitarian groups grapple

35:51with falling aid and a new threat to global institutions is rising in Europe. The far right alternative for Germany party known as AFD made unprecedented gains in regional elections recently, tapping into discontent over migration and the economy amongst other things. Author and political scientist, Ivan Krustev, has studied the tense political climate in his books like After Europe and The Light that Fail. He talks to Walter Isaacson now about far right and far left parties that threaten Europe's establishment. Thank you, Chris John, Ivan Krustev. Welcome to the show. Thank you for the invitation. So we've just seen some amazing things happen in Germany, including the party known as alternative for Germany, AFD party doing extraordinarily well in the regional election. Let's start by explaining what is that party? What is it stand for?

36:52Interestingly, alternative for Germany started as a party which was very much kind of a skeptical to the way European Union was doing with the financial crisis. It was started by some professors of economics and it started as a very much West German party. But then over the time, basically, it has changed and particularly after the migration crisis of 2015, three things happened in the way to make the party and the way it works now. In before, it was very much a professor's party. Now this is a party which was very much focusing on the problem of migrations. So from this point to you, it's not very different from many of the far-right parties in Europe. Secondly, it is overrepresented in his Germany. And this is quite important because your Germany is also part of Germany way at the number of refugees and migrants are the lowest compared to the other part of Germany. So how important is this migrant crisis

37:53and what Angela Merkel did to the rise of the party? Listen, it was important and then, and certainly this is very important to understand particularly the eastern part of it because people are going to ask the question, why people are protesting so much while in their own regions, there was not many migrants. But then you should know that there were not many migrants in his Germany, but since 1989, around 25% of basically people living in this region of Germany that we are talking about in which I have dealt one 44% last week. And basically have left the places they have been living in. So migration was not so much about the fear of those who are coming. It was the trauma of those who have left. And I do believe this was the part of the story that people quite often don't understand. It was much more so about demography. It was about very aging population.

38:53Saxony is the oldest in demographic terms. Part of it is Germany. And secondly, importantly, particularly in this of Germany, I have days also very much a kind of rejections and rebellion against the way the unification took place. So from this point of view, the East German I have there is slightly different than West German I have there. But at this moment, migration is very important for both of them. And secondly, when it comes to foreign policy, I have days in the party which very strongly attacks the German consensus on the way in Ukraine. Basically, they said we should not support Ukraine. We should take care of ourselves. And basically it's much more friendly to Russia than any other party in the German political system. There's another far left party, which is also doing quite well. Is that right? And is that fueled by some of the same resentments? You were talking about the Lincoln, the left party.

39:54The Nagar. Well, Scandinavia basically won. That was the biggest party on the election symbol in. And this is quite important because this is also a party that changed very much itself. It started, this was the X-Communist party basically of East Germany. In the beginning, it was very much about the nostalgia of West Germany because don't forget, if Germany was its particular identity, it was not so much even only about the old system, but this was about we were different. We also have our successes. And now we were treated to second class citizens. But now the left party is very much also the party in which you are going to see a very strong protest against economic policies, particularly in Berlin. It was very much focusing on housing crisis. It is very much supported by young people. It is very much supported by migrants. So from this point of view, I've there and the Lincoln are very different when it comes to migration.

40:54But what is interesting when you look at the results is that both Central, Left and Central, right, the social democrats and the Christian democrats basically have been crowded. And they really have a major political sufferings to the extent that on the last elections in West Pomerania, Christian democrats for the first time in their history. And I'm going to enter the regional parliament. So this is not simply that these two parties disagree on most things. They're basically seeing each other as an enemies. But there is one thing on which they agree. And this is very much a tech on the mainstream political parties. And basically they try to redefine what is left and what is right in German politics. Well, this in some ways seems a bit of a echo of what we're seeing in the United States. Where democratic socialists can be doing very well, the populist nationalist can be doing very well. And then people like Steve Bannon or sort of bridging everything, is there some more in common between what

41:57we call the far left and far right than people think? Listen, most of what is common for them is that they don't accept the political system in the way it is. And they have a good reason for this, to be honest, because one of the major stories that particularly German political system was very stable, very predictable, economically very successful. So for a very long period of time, it was delivering both economic results, but also certain type of political and social stability. And then comes the changes of the last decades and now on all kinds of fronts, German societies disoriented and to be honest in crisis. First economically, as you all know, Germany is on the major pressure. It is a major pressure because basically China and the import coming from China is really starting to destroy the German industry. So from this point of your Germany is seeing things that in the United States

42:58can be common for the last 15, 20 years. Suddenly the big, for example, German car companies cutting 50,000 people, 100,000 people. So there is an economic issue and this economic issue is there. Secondly, we see a very aging population. And this is a very aging population, which does not know who's going to pay their pensions because you have a major demographic disbalance. And certainly, and this is very important to keep in mind is that both far left and far right are very well represented among the youngest populations. If you're going to see, you're going to see that when it comes to people who younger than 25, people voting either for I have day or for the left are the majority. But there is one important thing in German politics, which makes it very different from the United States. Lesson German politics was also very much based on a certain type of idea of never again. We should not go back to what happened. So there was this total focus on the 1930s

44:01and what happened to the Weimar Republic. So as a result of it, basically, a Germany was much more rigid than others to allowing any type of a party that starts to look like an anti-system party to enter the system. You know the famous Firewall. And this was mostly about far right. But Christian Democrats also made a rule that they are not going to enter coalition with the far left. And now this does not work anymore. And honestly speaking, I do like one of the things that is happening is that political past, this very particular 20th century experience of Germany is losing its power to shape the political choices of the people. 20th century has ended in Germany in a way. After these regenerations, both Nazism and Communism looks like a kind of a two abstract for the young voters. Well, you've said something fascinating that this is partly about the loss of memory or the memory at least of the 20th century

45:04crises of Communism and Naziism in Germany, people saying never again. And that somehow that's faded from memory. And yet you also say that this is almost an nostalgic movement to go back to some type of Germany that's a fantasy version of Germany. Is that right? Yeah, listen, don't forget the Germany was. And this is very important to understand the German memory and remembrance culture because it was much more strong and radical than anywhere else. And of course, we normally believe that this was only the culture of guilt. But paradoxically, this was also the culture of pride because West Germany was, we were proud to be the first one who faced the crimes that we did. And this was very much about the generation of 1968. But one important thing's happened, and I do believe we should be a very kind of nuance to try to understand what is happening. And this is that, particularly after the end of the Cold War, a British historian, Tony Jard put it in a very nice way.

46:05He said, we stopped studying history. We started studying only the lessons of history. So suddenly, why everybody was talking very much about the crimes of both the Nazis and Stalinism, people didn't understand anymore how it happened that many young people in the 1920s or 1930s in Germany became either communists or fascists. And I do live this kind of a disappearance of the personal understanding, this type of not understanding what was moving people in one direction and the other and reducing history to the lessons of history, make it possible. So for these people, I don't believe that there is nostalgia for the Nazi period or for the communist period. Part of the things that they're saying is more be smart and less Hitler, but they said, we want to be a normal country. And this idea of normalization meeting, let's stop talking about Germany only,

47:07about Hitler, let's also try to see what we have done. We have the rights that every other nation has. And I'm saying this because of the exceptional nature of the German history, of course, the rights of our days changing European policy as a whole. Because then suddenly, and this is the interesting star, think that is happening on the Nationalistic right, nationalist can agree on migrants, but they cannot agree on what happened in the World War II. And I do believe this puts in a strange way the European projects under pressure in a moment in which, as you know, in the next year, 2027, they're going to be four critical elections, presidential in France, parliamentary in Italy, Spain, in Poland, where many of them, the Nationalistic right, can enter government. So how these governments are going to work together, to what extent basically this is going to be also an existential crisis for the European Union. This is what makes these elections, which are regional elections in Germany,

48:09so important and so much discussed. One sort of paradox here is that these nationalist, populist parties, very much against, in some ways, the European experiment, but there's still a pretty strong desire to stay in the European Union. Is that right and why? This is very important, and this is something that changed for the last 10 years. 10 years ago after Brexit, there was 17 important European parties that was advocating for the referendum side for living the Euro or living basically the European Union. And now we're going to see that most of these kind of parties are much more trying to reshape the European Union than to live it. And the explanation is very simple, Brexit. Brexit didn't do well. And then suddenly, all these countries work around and set the world is too big, the world is too hostile. What we're going to do in it?

49:09Because as the German president Steinmeier once said, in Europe, they're only two type of countries. Small countries that they know that they're small. And small countries who did not know yet that they're small, I believe that they're starting to understand this. So as a result of it, the biggest story is that we do not have a party which made the wall is basically to live or destroy the European Union. But keep in mind, when parties like this comes to power, quite often it has the political logic of the run on a bank. If I believe that this government, which is coming in France or in Germany or in Poland, is not going to be ready to invest in the European Union, then I'm start hedging. Even if I'm a pro-European government, I'm trying to behave in the way that if something going wrong, I'm going to be in a better position, which means that I'm not going to think in a common European defense.

50:10I'm going to invest basically much more international defense. I'm trying basically to very much focus on my own industry. And this is part of all of this part is because if you look at I have there, why did you've been so kind of critical to the migration? The message you Merkel was, you never took care of us. You're taking care of foreigners. And this story is other people more valuable to you than us, this story that why we never get this and that is a really interesting question. And you can see it on many places. And I do live from this point of view, let's put it metaphorically, for the left, the problem is the housing. They feel homeless because they don't have a physical house. It's this young people. For the right, they feel homeless on the metaphysical level. They lost the idea of the home in the way they understood it. Basically, they lost the idea of the state and society

51:11in the way. Basically, they remembered it. So it's a housing and home. So this is where we are in European politics these days. Everybody feels homeless for different reason. You are aggressive. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Now, a community in Brunei, dating back more than 600 years, could be a model for how to adapt to the world's changing climate. Campong Ayer is a water village built entirely on stilts. Christy Lee Stout explains what life is like for thousands of people who are living there. This is Campong Ayer, the world's largest water village. Built entirely on stilts, the settlement in Brunei's capital dates back more than 600 years. Today, thousands of people call it home. Welcome to Campong Ayer. Haji Abuzar's family grew up on the water.

52:11If we fall, just swim. Getting ground here is a little different. They use boats for transport, boardwalks for paths, and even schools and the local fire station are on stilts. You have to watch your step. Come on, keep up. Life in this floating labyrinth moves at a slower pace. Each of the 42 villages that make up this area is known for their own handicraft. We have one of the villages to be known to be silversmiths. Some of them are known to be boat makers. Some of them are traditional textile weavers. Like here, in the village of Bokia, where ancient skills are passed down. While many residents have moved inland over the years, Campong Ayer remains a symbol of national pride. Downriver, Abu Ranzah Homestay dedicated to preserving this region with the help of his mother

53:14who was born in the water village. I'm very proud to be one of the people who stay in Campong Ayer because the relationship is very close. I want my children, my grandchildren, my niece and if you still remember Campong Ayer. Through food and homely touches, they're keeping local traditions alive for the next generation. One of the reasons why we wanted to start was to kind of share our culture and heritage. When guests come over, they'll see the remnants of history and they see families who are still here and the culture and heritage that are still lived on until today. And finally, in Southern California, another sign of how ocean climate is changing for the first time on record. An olive-ridly sea turtle was spotted laying its eggs near Seal Beach in Orange County,

54:16which is about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Then, three days later, a second turtle, or perhaps the same one, was spotted laying her eggs near Huntington Beach, Pierre. Scientists say that while there are many factors at play, the historic sightings are likely linked to abnormally warm ocean waters brought on by El Nino. Sea turtles are protected under the US in Dangerous Species Act, a law that is itself endangered as the Trump administration's scales back regulations meant to protect wildlife from harm. That's it for now. If you ever miss our show, you can always find it straight after it airs on our podcast. And remember, you can always catch us online on our website and all over social media. Thank you for watching and goodbye from the UN. This episode is brought to you by Caesar. If you're looking to serve your dog high-quality dog food, just eat Caesar.

55:17Whether it's a protein-rich beef recipe or savory chicken and vegetable dinner, Caesar offers a variety of delicious meals made with freshly crafted, slow-cooked ingredients. All designed to support your dog's everyday nutrition without compromise. So if you're looking to serve a meal, your dog actually looks forward to every single day, they should totally just eat Caesar. Learn more at Caesar.com. Audio ads that connect, display ads that stand out, run them together on Spotify, and unlock incremental reach for your campaign.