Don’t wait up for history’s costliest hypothetical pipeline

0:00Nicky Glazer, this stunning tour. The thoughts of death I don't like to dwell on them for longer than like 10 or 15 hours a day, so... November 19th, Yamavath Theater. No wonder women rushed to have kids were being trained for it since we were kids. They're like, here's a baby doll. Here's an easy-bait coffin. I got one of those. I stuck my head in it. I was like, I want out of this narrowness. Tickets on sale now at Yamavath Theater.com. Don't miss Nicky Glazer. Yamavath Theater. Brussels clean up nicely at Sweet Green. Maple glazed, roasted, and edges perfectly caramelized. Sweet Green's fall harvest is back on the menu, and the season's most overlooked little green vegetable is dressed to be devoured. You know what to do. Order on the Sweet Green app. Chronic Migraine is 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting 4 hours or more. Botox, on a botulinum toxin A, prevents headaches and adults with chronic migraine before they start.

1:00It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It prevents on average 8 to 9 headache days a month, versus 6 to 7 for placebo. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. A lurcher doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions including ALS Lugeric's disease, Myastthenia Gravis, or Lambert Eaton Syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxCronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. The Canadian taxpayer is going to make a lot of money off this pipeline. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announcing, you pipeline, sort of, kind of,

2:01Informed McBurry Alberta last week. Hello, welcome to the full comment podcast. My name is Brian Lillie your host. This pipeline announcement, part of a process that's been going on for about a year now, trying to find out if the federal government can declare this. Pipelines from Alberta to BC's West Coast, a project of national interest. Today, we're ready to move forward for Albertans for Canadians. And I'm proud to announce that the government of Canada is officially listing the West Coast pipeline, now known as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest. You can hear Danielle Smith clapping in the background there. Alberta's premier. Clearly someone who was happy. One year ago, this project was a vision. Today, it has a clear path forward. Today, we will make Canada an energy superpower. What is that path forward? And is it a clear path forward? Joining me to talk about this are two fellow columnists with post-media.

3:04Lauren Gunter is with the Edmonton Sonny's been covering politics since Moses was in short pants and so was Lauren. Chris Farco has been covering the energy industry since the 1990s and knows it well. So since you covered the energy industry, Chris, let me start with you. What is this announcement and what isn't it? Well, that's a good question because what it is is it's a fast track for proules at the end of the day. What the government here has done is basically said that they will set the conditions or the regulators will set the conditions for this new pipeline to the West Coast by September 2027. Which is a fast track compared to where we've been in the previous years where it's taken two, three, four years to get to that point in time. So presumably by September 1st, 2027, they will know what the conditions are to get this project going. What it isn't is it's not an approval. It's not a final investment decision by the proponents, which are the governments of Canada, the government of Berlin, Pamela Pipeline.

4:08It also is not a commitment by producers to put oil in the pipeline yet. So there's a lot of road here to be traveled before we even get to a final investment decision. Can you give us a quick description of what this commitment document that they talk about that they have to get to by the end of the year. What that is all about because when I looked it up, Northern Gateway, when it was approved in November or December 2013, it had a list of 209 conditions, sorry, it's a conditions document. You could end up with a list that makes it impossible to build as of next September. I don't think that's the government's intent, but if bureaucrats are involved who knows. So what exactly is the conditions document that they have to get to? Well, what the regulators are doing in this case, this will be the Canada Energy Regulator, along with the major projects office. They will look, they will do an environmental review. They will look at the routing. They will look at all the economic and environmental conditions. They will also do consultations with landowners with indigenous communities with other affected stakeholders.

5:19Then presumably we will see a list of conditions that will say you can build it if you meet all of these various criteria. That's what we saw with Northern Gateway, which you referenced. Trans Mountain saw the same thing with the expansion project. So these are the conditions that you have to meet in order to build it. At that point, presumably the proponents will make a decision. Do you go or no go? Lauren, that doesn't sound to me like what Mark Carney promised during the last election and said he would deliver in his victory speech on election night when he said we will need to think big act bigger. We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven't seen in generations. Chris is right. It's speeding it up, but this is still an incredibly long process. It's almost a year and a half since Mark Carney won that election saying let's do fast things and we're only at the point where we're saying, okay, in 11 months we'll tell you, here's the conditions for you to do it.

6:27This is just one more stack of paper in the process. So last November you had the Prime Minister and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding it. Oh my goodness, wow, this is wonderful. There's going to be a pipeline because we have a memorandum of understanding. And in June, the provincial government put forward its outline of what the pipeline would look like and presumably what it would cost. And oh, isn't that marvelous. Now we have more concrete paper on this. And this is to me, it's just yet another paper affirmation that the pipeline will be built at some time. Maybe that's the best we have right now though is maybe, isn't it? Yep. And you know, there are some significant parts of this that are pleasing. For instance, it's the first project declared in the national interest by the major projects. I was, who would ever have guessed that a liberal federal government would approve a pipeline as their number one national interest project for Alberta.

7:40Alberta, I, that's that's staggering, but there's still, there's in the shovel in the ground. I think if I went out to Bruderheim, which is just north and east of Edmonton here where the pipeline will start and I started digging around, the mountains would be there fairly quickly to say what in heaven's name are you doing because there isn't any real construction happening yet. Chris, once we get to that conditions document, let's say that they do get approval, they get the conditions document premier Smith was saying she's hopeful that you know we could start construction next year, even with a short list of conditions. Do you have an estimate a best guess on how long it might take to actually start putting those shovels in the ground. After the document is released in September of 2027. Well, when I spoke with her yesterday, she said, you know, they would like to see shovels in the ground almost immediately. So we're talking in the fall of next year.

8:47That seems like a very rapid timeline. As I said, there's, there's a lot of other things that have to happen here like we're talking about the regulatory approval process. But we haven't actually gotten to the economics of this yet. And that's the question of how much does it actually cost to build another pipeline from Bruderheim all the way down in the southern British Columbia. The last time that happened was with the Trans Mountain expansion and that cost a lot more money than anyone ever anticipated right 34 billion dollars. This project estimated is supposed to cost 35 to 44 billion dollars. So now you have to figure out, well, what are the tolls for the shippers? There's companies here that have to actually make long term 20, 25 year commitments based upon what is the cost to build that project and what is the cost to move the oil through that pipeline. So we can talk about the politics or the regulatory approval all day long, but the economics at the end of the day have to make sense or nobody's going to put their oil in that pipeline. So as it might help that at the moment, Western Canadian Select is trading at $80.52, which is quite a bit higher than it was in the spring of 2025 when the province was looking at an absolute to shattering of their budget and deficit.

10:07I'm not sure that's a long term sustainable price. How much of the cost increase on Trans Mountain was a result, though, of endless consultations, protests, the government of the day, not really caring that those protesters were getting in the way that they were blocking construction. This government doesn't seem like, you know, if it goes forward that they're going to be willing to sit there and say, you know what, keep blocking that bulldozer. We'll tell the RCMP to stand down. There were a lot of reasons why that project went over budget and maybe one of the biggest ones was the endless delays. You may remember that the federal government botched the consultation process and then had to go back and redo it. That took an entire year at a schedule, at which point money had already been spent. There was also delays that were connected to COVID to work for sure. There were all kinds of delays. That project took more than a decade from the time that it was proposed to the regulator to the time that it was actually built. So there were lots of reasons why that project ran over budget.

11:14What are your thoughts on the politics of that side, Lauren? One of the other reasons there were delays is that the federal government entertained every court challenge there was from environmentalists and indigenous groups and through almost every case. They didn't make their best arguments. They sometimes would take a lower court judgment to appeal. The whole process just dragged out because the environmentalists and the First Nations who were opposed, it's always very important in these pipeline discussions to understand that there are First Nations who like the project and are quite happy to be involved in it as equity partners and there are First Nations that don't like it. So by entertaining all of these lawsuits from environmentalists and First Nations who are resistant, that added probably another year and a half. You talk about First Nations groups opposed and in support. I know with the reign of fire here in Ontario, the media keeps focusing on the one group which happens to be the furthest away from the actual reign of fire.

12:27So the one that will receive the least economic benefit. But we've also seen over the years, Lauren, greenwashing of different groups foreign money coming in. When Russia was doing that over a decade ago, they weren't distracted by a war with Ukraine that they're not doing particularly well in. Do you see the Saudis or the Russians or anybody else saying, you know what, we can we can fund some groups up there or maybe Tides Foundation and Tom Steyer just right that they're going to do it. Do you expect to see that kind of opposition being foreign funded yet again? Yes, sir. I do. Now, I don't think it will go as far as it did last time because it kind of caught everyone off guard. I think the people who are behind this in the provincial and the federal government are much more aware that those tactics are going to be attempted. And I hope they'll be ready for them. I can't guarantee they'll be ready for them.

13:28But, you know, I think that the biggest opposition will come from foreign funded First Nations because as soon as a First Nations says, oh my goodness, you're going to destroy our traditional hunting grounds. There's a reporter and a crew from CBC in particular who rush out and hear them. You remember the coastal gas leak, which was the LNG pipeline that was running from Northeastern BC down to the central coast of BC. There were lots of protests against and there were several chiefs who were opposed to it. But it turned out that every elected chief, most of the First Nations along the route had an elected chief and a hereditary chief. And all of the elected chiefs that signed on, and it was only hereditary chiefs, many of whom were not really hereditary, they'd been simply appointed to their positions. They were opposed and yet Trudeau went out and met with the hereditary chiefs and they were endless reports from the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star and the CBC about how these poor First Nations people were being jobbed by big oil companies.

14:41That's what they have to worry about. That's what they have to fight against. Chris, let me ask you about the economics of the Pathways project. To me, this was when the industry was going along with the idea of carbon capture and storage a few years ago. You would hear people say, yes, well, the industry supports this project or the industry supports a carbon tax. In my view, it was always, they didn't really support it, but they tell you that would, if you would approve their project, it was a bit like the Dane Gelt, they'll pay it if they have to. What's industry telling you now in terms of the economics of still going forward with Pathways to get this pipeline approved? Well, I think the industry, first off, is not in favor of an industrial carbon tax and they've made that pretty clear over the last six months. So that's sort of the starting point. The separate point is that they are willing to go ahead, I think, with the Pathways project, particularly if the economics are there for them to increase their production into the oil pipeline.

15:51Remember, these two projects have been linked by the Carnegie government that they both have to go ahead. In other words, you get no pipeline if you don't get Pathways. So that basically means that you need to have the production to fill out pipeline and both the federal government with some of its tax incentives and the provincial government, which is going to change the royalty rules are going to try and inset that production. So these things will all kind of work together as a sort of, as an economic sort of tie-in, but I don't think you can separate one from the other. This is all part of a big basket. And so the industry views it as a basket and that's what they're willing to proceed with. I mean, but they were lobbying to try and get Pathways dumped. I think if they know that the Carnegie government is linking it, but am I incorrect to believe that if they had their druthers, it would just be a pipeline and not a carbon capture and storage project attached to it. Oh, absolutely. I agree with that. I think they see Pathways as an additional cost that they are going to face that virtually no other industry other than maybe a Norway rule face.

16:56And so they also think that if there was no pathways, they could invest money in the pipeline. But one of the things that wasn't mentioned yesterday in the Fort McMurray announcement is that there are no private investors yet for the Pacific Link pipeline. And it could cost 44 billion. I think it would cost more than 44 billion. If Trans Mountain costs 34 and we're now further down the road inflation wise, this could easily cost $55 billion. And you might get some private investment for that if they weren't also being required to put $20 billion into carbon capture. But when you put those two together, there's an oil company in the world that wants to put that kind of money into something. Let me ask you both about that part of this. So they didn't spell it out in the news release that I read, but they said the government of Canada, government Alberta will jointly own a 10% will go to First Nations communities along the route.

17:56So Mike, you know, I'm taking it that it's going to be 45% federal, 45% provincial until I know otherwise. There was a time when private sector companies lined up, is it just what you were talking about Lauren, the pathways project, or is it that we haven't done the regulatory work to make this oil patch and this pipeline attractive as an investment, because I'll tell you when the investment summit was here in Toronto, people were saying great things. And they're saying, yeah, we we love the new attitude. We love the the fresh approach. It's a lot nicer than the last guy. It's very interesting. And then there was a button. And the butt was Canada has not yet done the regulatory requirements. And this is across all business, not just the oil and gas industry. You haven't done the heavy lifting to make things attractive. Right. I mean, the companies that were involved in energy east, Northern gateway, Keystone XL, all put in more than a billion dollars in getting through the regulatory process, only to have all three of those pipelines cancel.

19:10You're sitting in a CEO's office on an entire in Calgary and somebody's trying to get you to put money in and you think, no, we already did this once. And we're not going to take our risk or shareholder's capital again on a project that the next government or this government if it gets into trouble with its base is going to cancel. So there has to be some real proof that this is going to take place. And I think that means that that taxpayers not shareholders on the hook for all this. I thought it was funny that that carney said in Fort McMurray, taxpayers are going to make a lot of money from this. Yeah, maybe after 30 year amortization of the costs, I mean, there will be revenues coming in from transporting oil as there is with trans mountain that trans mountains bringing in a couple billion dollars a year for Ottawa and similar amounts for Alberta and BC.

20:13But you know, that doesn't include making payments on the pipeline. So because governments don't have to make payments. They're already paid for it. They jacked up taxes. They took money from ordinary Canadians and they paid for the pipeline. So I think they're thinking of the same model for this one. And you know, this could have been perhaps the most expensive week for taxpayers in Canadian history because also this week, Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that they wanted to rush ahead with the Northern shield pipeline, which gets Canadian oil to Ontario without having it to go through Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. And that's maybe $33 billion. So I don't see any private investors lined up for that one either. So what we're talking about here could be $80 billion to taxpayers to build these two pipe.

21:13Given the ongoing threats from the Democratic governor of Michigan, the court cases in Michigan and everything else Ontario may have no choice but to build that pipeline eventually because it appears that, you know, we're all worried about what the Republican resident of the White House is doing to Canadian trade. And in Michigan, where we've long had really tight economic relations, they just want that pipeline gone. They want like five done. The government and her Democratic core want it done because they've convinced themselves it's a huge environmental danger. But I don't think the average Michigan wants it gone. I don't think they care one way or the other. Chris, what were your thoughts on that Northern shield announcement because you were there when premier Smith and premier Ford were chatting about it in Calgary last week.

22:15Do they, does it feel to you like it's something real? Were the people in the business audience taking it as real? I know from speaking of premier Ford that he's quite serious about it. But do people take him seriously in Calgary? I think people in the industry take the Ontario premier seriously. But I think you have to remember where this project is. This was just floated as an idea that was going to have a feasibility study back in July during stampede week when premier Ford and premier Smith met here in Calgary. And now they're basically moving that process along with they're still waiting for a feasibility report. So we don't have a really have a route. We don't have obviously any proponents. Like this is very early in the process. And there are a number of other projects. You know that are looking to move ahead whether it's an expansion of the transmountain system and expansion of the Enbridge mainline system. There's another line, which is basically going to sort of revive parts of the old keystone Excel project. And then of course this west coast project. So I think everyone in industry would view that this one is the furthest back in the planning process is also probably got the most challenging economics. I mean if you think about the cost that $34 billion to go to the west coast with northern gateway.

23:28That was 1200 kilometers. This would be 3,300 kilometers. A lot of it going through shield. So the cost I think would probably be well in excess of that probably in excess of 50 or 60 billion dollars by the time that you got it built. So the economics would be really challenged. Then you get into the question of OK, who's going to pay for it? And what are you paying for? Are you just looking at this as an economic prospect? Or are you investing in this for some other reasons for national security energy security reasons? And that's where sort of the risk of calculus changes. Yeah, well, I think it's all of the above for for 40 doesn't like the idea that the mission governor is going to hold a gun to his head and what did they say? Pearson would run out of jet fuel within seven days if if the line was completely shut down and they didn't have an alternative. So yeah, well and think of all those dairy barns in Quebec that would be on heated in January because they don't have propane.

24:28You still found a way to bring it back to supply management. Lauren, that's amazing. All right, we need to take a break. When we come back, I do want to talk about some of the many wins that Ontario that Alberta premier Danielle Smith has gotten over the last little while and bring in the separatist angle to this. We've talked about how indigenous groups will oppose. Well, how does the Alberta separation argument vote factor into this. But first, don't forget we've got merch. You want to get your now. You want to get your national post your Calgary Harold your Edmonton Sun hats, totes, hoodies, t-shirts. You can get them all its post media dot store show your support for great journalism and look good while doing it post media dot store. Nicky Glazer this stunning tour the thoughts of death. I don't like to dwell on them for longer than like 10 or 15 hours a day. So. November 19th, Yama Vaughe theater no wonder women rush to have kids were being trained for it since we were kids. They're like, here's a baby doll. Here's an easy bake oven. I got one of those. I stuck my head in it. I was like, I want out of this narrative tickets on sale now at Yama Vaughe theater dot com. Don't miss Nicky Glazer Yama Vaughe theater.

25:43Fall has never looked or tasted this good sweet greens fall harvest menu is back with seasonal favorites dressed to impress and made to be devoured warm roasted sweet potatoes crisp apples maple glazed Brussels and crave worthy flavors in the autumn harvest bowl maple glazed salmon plate and roasted bacon Brussels side the season's most desirable menu has returned to sweet green featuring falls best dressed make your move order on the sweet green. Chronic migraine is 15 or more headache days a month each lasting four hours or more. Botox on a botulinum toxin A prevents headaches and adults with chronic migraine before they start. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It prevents on average eight to nine headache days a month versus six to seven for placebo. For description Botox is injected by your doctor effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing speaking breathing eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life threatening condition patients with these conditions before injection or at highest risk side effects may include allergic reactions neck and injection site pain fatigue and headache allergic reactions can include rash welts asthma symptoms and dizzy and it's don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection.

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28:04You don't want to miss all that you I sure don't and you can get all now for less than a dollar a week just go to national post dot com slash newsletters to sign up. That's national post dot com slash newsletters so much is happening in politics right now rising tensions with the US on trade and defense not one but two provincial separatist movements gaining real ground. The liberals trying to hang on to a razor thin majority as the economy stumbles and with the cost of living still rising it's exciting extremely exciting but the only way to get behind the scenes and right into the source code of what politicians and the people around them are really thinking is to get political hack. Go to national post dot com slash newsletters and join us. This is Tristan Hopper the host of Canada did what where we unpack the biggest weirdest and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew until you would really happened stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes from season two.

29:11And if you missed it there are even more episodes from last season so make sure you subscribe to Canada did what everywhere you get podcasts Alberta premier Daniel Smith was clearly happy as I said earlier when it came to the announcement in Fort McMurray now to pipeline but moving forward with one while she was giving her speech though. She took the time to list off all the wins that she's received over the last while and it's substantive so she's just talking about them unfortunately what you can't see is Mark carney looking well uncomfortable behind her that agreement has delivered major wins for Alberta including of course an agreement to advance an oil pipeline to Asian markets. A commitment to from the federal government not to proceed with a federal oil and gas emissions cap so that our energy producers can thrive again a bands of the federal clean electricity regulations in Alberta which would have placed our electrical grid serious risk of failure and limited our industry's ability to grow in the future an impact assessment agreement to streamline project reviews reduced duplication and reinforce provincial jurisdiction suspension of the federal zero emission vehicle mandate and of course removal of the federal government.

30:21And of course removal of the greenwashing provisions in the competition act mean that's a lot of W's for premier Smith there she's she's done well out of this agreement who wants to go first that we can all agree that you know it's a good thing that the pipeline. Proposal at least is is moving forward we can agree that it may take too long we can agree there should be public sector money behind it but. I did not expect even with mark carney saying things were going to change that all the things the premier just listed would ever happen with a liberal government. It either of you expect what she listed off to be the current reality. Well i'll jump in first and just go back to the MOU last November I think everyone was pretty surprised at the scope of all of the things that were included in that the oil and gas emissions cap was obviously a big deal the method regulations the impact assessment. Act I think one of the sleeper ones and all that was the clean electricity regulations those being put into a balance means that the Alberta government can actually move forward on building or having industry build natural gas fire power plants that allows you to build an entirely new industry built around data centers so there were a lot of things in that aside from the pipeline and the pathways project and I think a lot of people in the industry were really surprised at how many items got included.

31:46In that MOU explain why that was important Chris the clean energy regulations and. Is an Alberta's electricity grid mostly natural gas already I mean I know you don't have the big hydro of BC or Quebec but what power is the Alberta grid now. Yeah it used to be primarily coal fired power going back about 10 years ago in the industry has been moving over to natural gas primarily along with summer renewables over the last five to 10 years Alberta has got a lot of natural gas and that is going to continue to power the grid for years but with the clean electricity regulations at the Trudel government put in they basically had put us a sunset period or when those projects had to stop operating and so that meant that industry was a lot of energy. And that meant that industry wasn't prepared to build new gas plants so you're going to end up in this period where you're going to have some older plants come off and then what was going to replace it that was a giant question for industry and industry wasn't prepared to make an investment until they got some clarity on that so that's why it's important that the clean electricity regulations were included in that MOU and that allows industry to build new gas fire power plants in the province.

32:59Yeah I've got to go nuclear finally Saskatchewan is just as an aside after decades of digging the uranium out of the ground but refusing to build a nuclear plant they're going to move forward with it which is I think smart on their part. Lauren your thoughts on on the long list that premier Smith had you've been skeptical of the liberal government Ottawa long time did it surprise you. Oh yeah well absolutely and you know the reason it surprised me is that there aren't that many different faces in caucus. Then there were when Justin Trudeau was the prime minister and they were all behind at least they all claimed to be behind all of his green regulations and and. Seven G Bo is still in the car still in the caucus under carney when most of this was announced and and he was of course the big driver behind a lot of this. He's now gone because of all these winds right exactly exactly and he tried very hard to take other people with them and they wouldn't go so politically this has been easier to undo a lot of the Trudeau damage than I expected.

34:13I think as you said Brian we're still looking at an awful lot of companies that aren't prepared to invest until they know it with certainty what's what's going to happen but you know the whole idea we we spent billions of dollars in the in the 2018's in Alberta converting coal fired power plants to natural gas and then seven G Bo comes along it says no no no no no natural gas is a dangerous. Fuel source so you have to go to wind turbines and solar farms and bug burps or whatever it is that you know he decided was going to work and it would never have worked we we'd have ended up here we had two years ago we had a time when when we had sustained temperatures of minus 30 or below and the wind farms all shut their turbines down because the blades can break at that temperature and so here we were with with reduced energy sort of brown out so it would it's not a big percentage of Alberta's energy production yet but it was big enough that when everyone was heating their homes.

35:25The wind turbines not working had an obvious effect of the provincial energy regulator recommended to Alberta to go around their house and turn off all the unnecessary systems don't run your dishwasher at six o'clock in the evening don't you know don't turn your lights on outside all of that stuff we were all supposed we were so worried to be these huge blackouts that the energy regulator say oh run around your house and flip down all the way. So you can switch as you can so that has been a big relief that natural gas is no longer a toxic substance with this government and you know what the impact assessment act which we had dubbed out here the no more pipelines act. It's still there but it's been got it so carney can say to his environmental caucus oh no no we still have the impact assessment act but you can also take a look at the fact that the major projects office can override much of what's in the impact assessment act.

36:30The impact assessment office cannot hold things up as long as they used to I think all of these have been very very big wins but I think it's I think they're joint wins I think they're joint wins between Danielle Smith and Mark carney. I don't think Danielle Smith would have gotten very far with any of these unless Mark carney was the prime minister and and and he's pro development. Chris in terms of the you know I think Lawrence correct and in the impact assessment act is in some ways gutted I think also just a different vision of how to implement it I know it's called the no more pipelines act in in much of the country. Stephen good bow tried to make it the no more highways he tried to get involved in local road decisions here in Ontario saying no no you can't build that road there to which like federal government had never been involved in that sort of thing they told Scott Moe couldn't build a. A renewables electricity plant because it had gas back up I mean he was trying to shut down everything and this is a different mindset which I think really shows up in the.

37:37One project one review one year how welcome is that to the industry welcome I think that's always been the concern and I know that when. Gibo was the minister they talked about using the impact assessment act to look at things like sag D thermal oil science projects projects which are completely within the boundaries of the province of Alberta but they were going to look at doing you know assessments on those kinds of projects so that would have thrown a huge element of risk. Into those kinds of investments along with you know what the impact assessment act would have done on cross border pipelines which obviously we didn't see a lot across border pipelines being proposed during that period of time so I think the industry was certainly welcoming of the changes to impact assessment act. All driven by one change in leader because as you said Lauren so many of these people of the same ones around the table. Yeah absolutely and so far I hate to be a skeptic I hate to throw cold water I still haven't seen anything from carney of a concrete nature you said when he was having his investment summoning Toronto people were so excited about the change in tone.

38:55The change in approach but I don't see an awful lot of investment coming out of that because. There haven't been a lot of changes in taxation regulation all the things that that incentivize companies to invest so we'll wait we'll see we'll see if if mark carney goes the next step and becomes a concrete reformer concrete business developer so Chris it what would the ask be from the end. The industry on that front what would be their shopping list shopping list of things that they want to see would start with I think that pipeline I think to Lawrence point there is an element of skepticism here but the ability to get projects done because the past is told us that it's been an inability to get projects done which is put a huge risk premium into any kind of investment decision. So there are going to be a lot of people watching this pipeline project to see whether it gets done and. It is primarily being proposed and it's going to be paid for by taxpayers Pemble to pipeline has got a 10% stake a non binding stake and they can make it 20% if that project goes through.

40:06But the fact is that the governments are having to build it because private industry is not willing to take on the rest so they're going to be watching to see whether that project can get through if that project gets through. Then I think you're going to see people go okay this process does work but it's got actually happened. All right let's talk about the politics of this because I know they said in their MOU that they would make an announcement by October 1st but they waited until October 1st they could have announced this a while ago we've we've all known it was headed this way they waited until October 1st and I think a certain vote happening on October 19th. On the future of Alberta and do you want to have a referendum on whether you want to have another referendum on whether to separate from Canada it's a convoluted way but you know Keith Wilson who is one of the most thoughtful and engaging guys on the leaves side.

41:06And I've debated Keith because they told him well I like you but you're wrong. He put out a video in response to the Pacific link announcement and I'm going to I'll play you part of what he said but it's framed within the parameters that he put forward which said it's kind of like one of those marriages where the husband is a deadbeat doesn't do anything until the wife decides she wants to look at better. Look at better options and then he shows up with a bouquet of flowers so obviously in his mind. Canada and the federal government is the deadbeat spouse and Alberta is the abused spouse and here's how he framed the arrival of this pipeline announcement while I'm encouraged that this that there's some glimmer of hope of market access. We need to remember that the concerns that many Albertans have about our relationship with Ottawa was never just about a pipeline and on October 19th if you accept the bouquet you are and vote option one you're basically saying yeah the bouquet is good we're good honey you can do the abuse of relationship for as long as much as you want that's the message you're setting up.

42:29I'm sending to Ottawa by voting option one that status close fine everything's okay I don't love the battered spouse analogy I get the grievances but I don't love that analogy but politically Lauren does this whole issue factor into the pipeline decision does it alter the vote on October 19th now the car and he's made it what you read. I'm sure that the Alberta government and the federal government announced this when they did in a hope of swinging more votes over to the remains side that the no side as it's known here. The timing is not coincidental but will it have much impact no I don't think so I think people's minds were going to have Janet Brown who is a highly esteemed Alberta pollster took a look at this a while ago and she said most of the people who were voting yes or no who were voting separatism or confederation had made up their minds months ago and they knew what they were going to vote.

43:45Thankfully so far she's found as most pollsters have that Albertans are split about 70% in favor of of staying and about 20 to 25% in favor of leaving and Keith is right I mean I Keith Wilson a lot very very smart guys you said and and a very tempered guy the other two people who run the Alberta prosperity project who started this whole separatist thing. Keith Rath and what's his name Jenner Raster yeah so Vester they're they're wacky they they're over the top they turn more people often they then they turn on but Keith has the ability to talk to people at a rational level and maybe make them change their minds but I still think that so long as there is a good turnout on October 19th and Alberta. Elections Alberta is expecting an 85% turn out we have never had a whole 85% turn out for anything like this if there's an 85% turn out the separatists lose big time now they have promised they're not going to go away anywhere but at least they lose some credibility if if the vote is 65 35 or if it's 70 to 25 whatever it is they they if they get trounce

45:13they don't have the same leverage then if there's a low turnout and they won't win with a low turnout either I don't think but they could end up with 40% of the vote which then says which then you know let's them say a hot see there are lots of people who agree with us and so therefore you have to listen to us going forward. But no I don't think the announcement yesterday makes an enormous difference in the outcome because I think the outcome was already set in stone months ago. You know I keep seeing people say including you know smart folks that I like like Norman Specter former top bureaucrat in Ottawa former top bureaucrat in BC and he says based on his experience with how Quebec's been able to use it out British should have a strong vote for option two so they can hold the knife to the throat in Ottawa and get what they want and I just look economically at what has happened to Quebec and Quebec when I was born Montreal was the business center of Canada by the time I was leaving high school.

46:20Montreal was no longer the business capital their economy was utterly depressed they have never recovered so Chris looking at the Quebec example are people in Alberta saying you know what flirting with this separatism thing this could be really bad for business this could hurt the industry this could drive away investment instead of attracting it. Yeah I would say the business community was pretty quiet on this issue for a number of months but in in the last few weeks of the last couple of months they started to I think become a little more vocal I was at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce news conference this week where they brought out a report that was done by. University of Calgary economist Trevor to when they talked about the economic consequences of what separation could do to the economy in terms of the to the GDP loss this is a province that I think everybody knows is really contingent you know really bases its economy upon trade portrayed abroad and other provinces so would have big consequences the other thing is this is a.

47:25province that has a lot of major projects that are moving ahead or either planning to move ahead or in the middle of moving had like the ten billion dollar down project that's going on up in the Edmonton region and anything that creates uncertainty is a problem or an issue for investors so that is I think the overriding concern is that this drags on. Beyond you know the next few weeks or even few months that this could actually start to have an impact upon investment I don't think it has yet but I think it could if this drags over time. Well gentlemen thank you very much for your time today I don't think we solved all the problems of the world but we we know what this pipeline announcement isn't what it isn't and I think that's important so thank you both you're welcome thank you thanks for having us full comment is opposed media podcast my name is Brian Lillier host this episode was produced by Andre prove. The music by prize hall Kevin liban is the executive producer of the show thanks for listening make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcast share this on social media and tell your friends about us thanks for listening until next time I'm Brian Lily.

48:32Here's that clip from Canada did what season two that we promised to you let me take you back to the night of October 30th 1995 to the hours right after that likely fatal bullet was dodged. We're awaiting the reaction from the Quebec premier at the time Jack Barrizzo who was championing separatism and I just narrowly lost the vote he had held to try and get it. Did I say narrowly it was a razor thing loss 49.42% of voters said yes to Quebec independence 50.58% said no the difference was just above half a percent less than 55,000 votes. But of nearly 5 million. Now there's a generally accepted protocol for what a politician is supposed to do when they lose a vote. You come out concede defeat congratulate the victor kiss your spouse and thank your supporters. But every once in a while a politician comes out and says what they really think they just let it all out in front of news cameras the bitterness the disappointment the recriminations a no filter tirade about how the voters are idiots and the

49:45invowing revenge. That's what happened on the night that Barrizzo lost the referendum for Quebec independence. We're going to talk about us at 60% of the votes. If you don't speak French that's Barrizzo saying that although they lost the referendum Quebec's French speakers voted 60% for independence. The implication being that if they simply ignored the non French Quebecers those who weren't real Quebecers that is immigrants Jews indigenous people McGill University students they would have won this referendum in a walk. If you want to hear the rest of the story make sure you subscribe to Canada did what everywhere you get your podcasts.