Derrick Henry Short Yardage

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1:25I'm going to talk about the community, a lot of fun talking to the people there. And Tanner is about the 10th person probably from over there that I've had on a podcast. And there's a lot of very high quality analysis and football fandom over there. But Tanner, I appreciate you making time for today. Let's talk a little bit about your study. Enter into this however you'd like. What motivated you to or what you're trying to accomplish. Yeah, I appreciate you having me. A study that we're talking about today is one that I did in the same way that motivates a lot of people, which is to get and do an argument online. As a frequent commenter on the Baltimore Raven subreddit, especially after wins and losses, there's lots of people chatting about what they think we should have done better, what they think we should have done worse. And going back many years since we've had Lamar, there's been a pretty persistent idea that we have been in the running game as games go on. And as we play against tougher competition and we leave Derek Henry on the sideline.

2:28And that's something that has been very persistent for a long time, even into this year. And I remember two weeks ago against the Saints, we ran into the same types of comments from folks online that Derek Henry was watching us try and throw the ball deep on third and one. We need to use one of the best running backs in the league. And then the tables kind of turn this last week against Dallas Cowboys, because we tried to run the ball quite a bit, especially in short-yarded situations. And people online did not like seeing him get stuffed or get stopped behind the line. And that kind of duality was something that is frustrating for me when people kind of go back and forth. So that's kind of what motivated me to want to see. Is that actually true and to what extent is it true? Okay, so great stuff. But first of all, you're building the foundation for something you want to study. And I love that. And I see the way you went through this in terms of your methodology online. It's one of the things to attract me to talking to you about it. But it is funny that people will turn on you so quickly. I did think the Saints game was one of the worst coach games in Raven's history,

3:31which is really saying a lot for a new coach. Did you like that? You know, one of the real questions is, is he going to learn from this game? Or is it does he not know how to learn from this game? Or is he too stubborn to learn from this game? So Mike Dick had to stubborn, whole bunch of coaches who don't stay in the league very long. They don't know how to learn from their own mistakes. And then I think mentor at least proved this week that he knew how to change the go-no-go decision. They may not have figured out how to design plays that will give the Ravens the best chance to work on fourth and fourth. I totally agree. Yeah, I'm obviously not happy to see us getting stopped on third and fourth and fourth and short. But I think that it's great that we actually are finding out whether or not that is something that we can do consistently, unthirth and forth down. If we know that we can get it, then great. Let's send Henry out as much as we can. And at least now we know we don't have people wondering if that is a successful play for us or not. Right. And you know, you don't, I don't think it means you give up on fourth and one because you couldn't get it twice by stuffing the ball into Derek Henry's belly.

4:32I think it means you figure out how you can use the deception that's inherent in the Ravens off. And it's more effectively than they did in those plays. Anyway, let's get to your study. I want to focus on that. So you were looking at Derek Henry and short yardage and to kind of talk us through the methodology. So the basic idea that I wanted to try and execute is instead of trying to prove that he's good or bad at short yarded rushing, I wanted to be curious and ask, you know, how does he measure against other people around the league and how do they measure against other people around the league when he played in Tennessee? Because he's been a great back for a long time. So I used a Python package that connects to a really, really great free, easy to access data, acid online called NFL verse. And I pulled about six years or six and a half years of stats since Henry was in this is last three years in Tennessee and then two plus three weeks in Baltimore. And basically I just classified short yardage rushing attempts as a third or fourth down possession with three yards or less to go.

5:36And I pulled all the plays that we ran the ball that there was a rushing attempt to a half back on third and fourth down with three or less to go. And I calculated a bunch of statistics and I looked at how everything, you know, stacked up and that's how we got here. Key element is you're excluding quarterbacks from this. And so the fourth and two, QV power and stuff is not in there. I think it's very good, but the definitions in any study are very key. And there's two things I like about this. First of all, you've been very clear about what your universe is. And second of all, you're using all of it as opposed to, but I threw at this because I didn't like it. And this wasn't really fit my thing. And I always get very frustrated with people who start on that road. And honestly, what that leads you back to, if you take it far enough, is try to decide how good an offensive lineman is by looking at one clip. And that's just unbelievable. I mean, offensive line play, for example, is one of the biggest hits per it bat items we have in football look at. You can literally look at every play that somebody does in grade each one.

6:38And there's still a lot of people who really want to try and look at one snap. Anyway, I don't want to do real this. So talk about the rest of your universe in your process. Yeah, so the data that's available, like I said, it's free and easy to access. There's a lot of data that's out there on NFL games that is not free or easy to access. For example, the AWS next gen stats. Those are really, really great. I can't get access to X and Y coordinates of players. So there's a lot of data elements that I would have loved to include, like the strength stuff about the strength of the old line or the average depth of the, you know, the average block. Or what personnel are front the Ravens and the defense were in at the same time. Those things weren't available to me. So I had to go with what what I had just because I wanted some sort of an answer. And I want to echo what you said about trying to use as much data as possible. It's very frustrating for me to see people try and make a statistical argument and they'll say, oh, this player had the best yards per carry over the last nine weeks. And I always ask, why did we choose nine? And usually it's because if we go back to 10 1112, yeah.

7:39So yeah, I thought that was important. That's that's that's definitely really good. I mean, there's there's there's so many things that come up in general studies. And I understand you work with actuaries. You've mentioned this. So you'll get what I'm saying, but we'll lose other listeners. I don't I don't want to go into it too much. But what I call sometimes it happens and this happens, give me one example. You'll look at any at studies of relations of plays like snap count on offense and defense. And there are people who tell you it doesn't really matter. Look, I've studied it doesn't really matter. I can look back and this is what they're doing. It of course matters, but you lose it in the counter currents of causality. So you have other things going on, other counter currents to it. One is, for example, you're trailing, you tend to have a lot of short duration drives at the end of games where you may pick up plays. And then it's basically saying that that play count is associated with losing and it's and that is a it's a it's a counter example or a counter to the notion that having more

8:40plays is good. It probably is better to say have more plays in a neutral game script. That's a much more difficult thing to define and get at. You've got the models that would tell you that right. The NFL verse has a good probability component to it that's available tag every play. And is this associated to a Carnegie Mellon NFL fast R? Or is it a separate? I believe so. Let me have it written down here. I'm not sure off the top of my head, but I think that's what I used in grad school for a few projects. Okay. All right. So it looks similar. They both work from the NFL generated effectively the game book. Yeah, exactly. It took that information. NFL game center. Yeah. All right. Let's keep going here. So, so. Findings results, whatever you'd like to do next. Yeah. Great. So yeah, I just took a quick hit on one thing. You said, yeah, I excluded quarterbacks and tight ends for the push push because the ultimate question that I'm trying to answer is, is Derek Henry a good short yard rushing back compared

9:41to other running backs, right? Like Jalen hurts and other touch push extraordinaire's are not really helpful to compare. So got all of them out of there. I also looked at running backs that had enough carries to actually be compared. If somebody had only had five short yard attempts over a three year period, then it's not really a very fair comparison. What was your minimum? So I tried to, I chose 25 yards. Ultimately, I was trying to find. 25 carries, right? That 25 yards. 25 carries. Yes. Thank you. That's a very fair period, and I divided the whole data set into the two three year periods. How many individuals did you have? How many data points do you have with 25? Around 100. I think there was around a hundred running backs that had at least 25 short yardage carries over at least one of the two three year periods. Yeah. And so after I gathered all those stats, I pulled them all into a table and started looking at them. And the first thing that jumped out to me was that I compared all running backs over for the full six year period. So not split up at all.

10:42And Derek Henry graded out into the B tier. So I just separated them and organized them. And so there were probably about 10 to 12 backs that were ahead of Derek Henry. And off the bat, I was pretty surprised by that, I guess, because there's a long standing belief that yeah, he's not a good short-goatage back. He's too big, he takes too long to get up to speed, and he's standing too far upright. So I saw that and I at least was encouraged that there might at least be something here to explore. He's clearly not terrible, and he's clearly not, according to this, like the best in the league. And so then that's when I looked at splitting it up between his last three years in Tennessee, and then his first three years now in Baltimore. And that's when I saw the most interesting thing. Yep. So when we look at his last three years in Tennessee, Derek Henry was actually the top graded short-goatage running back that I saw, again, using the data that's publicly available. And the main things that went into that was number one, he had an 84% conversion rate. So on third and fourth down with three or less to go, he converted 84% of his runs.

11:43What's the number there, 21 out of 25? That's 44 attempts, so 37 out of 44. Okay, all right, so a meaningful number. Now, one of the things that's true about Henry is his success rate, which I think would be closely linked to this, was 46% roughly his last three years in Tennessee, and it's 56% his first three years in Baltimore. And this goes the other direction. This you're saying, hey, he was better when he was in Tennessee. That's at least with this data, and it's hard because a lot of people use data that's not free and accessible. And I would love to make sure that they can reconcile. And there are some different definitions with the variables, like in the one that I'm using from the NFL verse, there's a success rate that is different. And so the success rate that I have defined is the number of play or the percentage of plays that add to the expected points out, like using the EPA. So that is the other major definition, by the way folks, you've got a positive EPA version and a percentage of the yards gained on each time. When you hear me quoting on this play, it's generally the percentage of the yards, the old football outsiders definition.

12:46And this one using this definition of the mean EPA added, he was the highest scoring running back in the league throughout the last six, like out of any three-year period for running back, he had an 82% success rate. So an 82% of his plays, he added, or the short yard of rushing plays, he added expected points to the Ravens, or the, I mean, in that case the Titans, but... Okay, and it's third or fourth and three or less. So most of those times in order to add points, he's gonna have to get it first down. Correct, yeah. And it's generally gonna have to be on the other side of the field as well, because if you convert a third and one on your own goal line, you still have 99 yards to go. So... I would think it'd be a positive expected points, because you're faced otherwise with a punt in that situation. So if you get it first down, that's significantly better than having to get it on the line. Right, but, yeah, no, that's a very good point. Yeah, the closer you are, then I guess you're not necessarily adding points, but you're removing the chance of less points for a different margin. So...

13:47All right, so let's take this further. So what's the next step in process? Yeah, so the next step was to try and look at potential reasons for why it's so different. And one that jumps out pretty quickly is that attached to the NFLverse data, there is a rushing direction field. That's just, is it either inside, which would be on either side of the center, or that would be middle, sorry, inside would be on the gaps surrounding the guards, and then outside would be on the gaps surrounding the tackles. And so it splits up every rush into middle, inside and outside. Okay, so gotta be careful about this, because the gaps surrounding the tackles and the gaps surrounding the guards overlap with the B gap. So are these just A gap runs, or is this A or B gap runs, or what you're considering as middle? The way that it was defined for the NFLverse was looking at... Like, middle wasn't really defined. Inside was defined as attacking the guards, and then outside was defined as attacking the tackles, or like the edge.

14:48So like stretch versus an inside zone versus like a dive. That's going up to A gap or something. Okay, I think the way they do that, and this is NFLverse is taking for the NFL's information that they publish in the game books. So if you look in that, there's an individual run thing, on any run play, it'll say runs up the middle, runs left guard, runs right guard, I'll say runs left tackle, or they may say runs left to end. And those that allows you to broadly categorize where the players are running, but the one thing that's always been a little confusing to me is what are they considering a tackle run? Is that a is a big gap run left to right? Is that a guard run or a tackle run? And I don't know the answer to that. I don't know how they actually define it that way. Yeah, I also don't know that's a great question. I would have to assume that since A gap has to be middle, then I would assume big gap would almost as... Big guard, yeah. Has to be guard, but that's a great question. Yeah, that's... That was one of the main things I looked at between the first period and the second period is that

15:48when he was with Tennessee, when he had his NFL leading period in terms of short-guarded success, they only ran 18% of their plays to the inside, so like the big gap around the guard. Only 18% of his attempts, of the short-guard attempts, went to the inside. So they were off tackle or end, where 82% of the runs where he had the very high percentage of conversion. It would have been A gap or tackle runs. So there was nothing that was going at the guards. There's only 18% that were going at the guards. Okay. So as compared to in Baltimore, 40% is his inside percentage compared to the 18 that was in Tennessee. And so that's something that as I'm not a football coach, I'm a statistician, and so I'm not trying to say that I know exactly how to interpret stats or anything, but I think that this points to what could be a potential difference in play calling. Maybe he's good in certain situations when we run him at certain gaps, or it could also point to a data gap.

16:50Because depending on the formation and the personnel, there are different gaps that are available. If we light up in shotgun, it's a lot harder to run at the A gap than it is at the inside or the outside one. And so we don't have access to the formation that you're running in the NFL versus data. All that we know is if you're in shotgun or not, but obviously using single back or using pistol or using shotgun or having a lead blocker, all those things matter. And those are things that weren't available in the specific data that I would love to have. But that is at least one big difference between his period with Tennessee is that at least looking at the percentages of middle, inside and outside runs, it does look a lot different. That in Baltimore, we are hitting those gaps around the guard, the B gap, a lot more than he was when he was in Tennessee. So that was the first thing that I noticed. Football is heating up and price picks has all your picks in one place. New users, get yourself a head start with price picks, best offer yet. If you win your first $5 lineup,

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19:54not authorized by a candidate or a committee controlled by a candidate. All right. Yeah, the second big one was that the total number of attempts that he had in Tennessee, especially given that that is a full three-year period. And what we have in Baltimore is two years plus three weeks, right? So it's a much bigger period in Tennessee. But and he was more in his prime, but he only had 44 total attempts. And so far his career in Baltimore, according to this methodology, he's already had 52 attempts, again, compared to the 44 that were in Tennessee. So that means that we are using him a lot more, or at least in total, in aggregate. He has rushed more in short-yarder situations for us. Which is being a lot of things. Just to put that into round numbers, this is about a 50% increase in the per game utilization of Derek Henry in that. That's interesting. I would not have to ask that. In terms of the short-yardage, Russian script. And some of that maybe. Some of that maybe a tale of you go ahead.

20:57Okay, thank you. I think one of the big reasons, the easy interpretation is just, oh, when we get to short-yardage, it's going to Derek Henry. There's nothing else that's gonna happen. Like we know that if we get to those short-yarder situations, yeah, it's gonna go to Derek Henry. That's what's gonna happen. And it was, you know, not quite the same in Tennessee. Maybe they had more multiplicity in their office. I don't necessarily know if that's the case. The other option would be that, as a team, you know, we're reaching more third and fourth down short-yardage attempts. It could be either, and obviously this data set doesn't really tell you one way or the other. And there are other explanations too, but those are the first two that jumped to me. Yeah, I would bet on number two. And I'm not even sure that's the whole answer. Maybe just some noise there too, that's extended the lead for Baltimore. But it also would seem to me that, you know, if you're in Tennessee, Derek Henry really is the only choice. If you're in Baltimore, it should be the case that Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry are both good choices on fourth down. That's definitely what you would think. And I think that that brings into another interesting thing

21:59that I saw. And so we remember that before we had Derek Henry, we had kind of a suite of people that were coming in and out based off of their injury status. And one of the beloved running backs that we had before, him was Gus Edwards, who was known to be kind of a bruiser that could get in. He had some wiggle when he was going inside. He was known as he can get you tough yards. And during that period of 2021 to 2023, when Derek Henry was the number one, Gus Edwards was actually ranked as the number four in the entire league. And again, that came on a very few number of overall carries. By the way, we're using different definitions of success right here, but Gus Edwards is the all-time leader. And so it was the all-time leader and success rate when he left the Ravens. So at 57.4%. So Derek Henry even in his brief Ravens created data, it 56 in change, which is, you know, you really have to give Gus Edwards some props there. It's not a trivial number of carries that he had. Yeah, exactly. And I believe Gus, correct me if I'm wrong,

22:59I believe Gus Edwards missed almost the entire 2020 season, right? 21 or 21, at least 21. One of the years in that period, he definitely missed, yeah, it was 2021, you're right. And so I had that he had 32 total attempts, but that would be only over two seasons. And even if you were to grade that out, like you said earlier, to a per game basis, that is still a smaller number of carries than Derek Henry has now. And that was with Lamar Jackson. And so that was with a running back that was not nearly as, you know, accredited as Derek Henry, and it was still with Lamar Jackson. And so I think that that at least shows that, in terms of short yardage rushing attempts, we are rushing it more now than we were before we had Derek Henry, which isn't necessarily a bad idea in theory, but. Yeah, not at all. And if you go back, yeah, the 2019 Ravens went forward a lot on fourth down. That's outside of your study period, right? So you didn't include that. And the other group I'd really like to learn from, I don't know if this is an NFL verse as data back as far,

23:59but the 2008 Ravens had Laurent McLean. And I'd love to know what his situation was like in this. Yeah, the NFL verse goes back. I believe to 1999. So it's got quite a bit of data that you can, and I would love to go back even further than I did for this one since I only started with three year, you know, the last three years in Tennessee. Okay. All right. So we've got a, Derek Henry's being used more, so where are you going from here with this? So the biggest thing that I could think of is that depending on the formation that we line up in, and our history with having Randir can read quite a bit on third and fourth and short, then adding more multiplicity is maybe the best way. Instead of saying that we need to stop rushing him, it's that we need to have more multiplicity in our offense potentially, that we need to have more options to threaten them with. Because we saw against the Cowboys, there are multiple times that he got stopped where the defender that tackled him in the back field clearly knew what the play was going to be, or at least had a very good, idea of what it was going to be,

25:01and no running back is going to be successful unless you're very Sanders if you're getting hit met minus three. Right. There was a lot of selling out by the Cowboys in the game, and basically they're ignoring the threat of Lamar Jackson. As soon as you let him do that, then you're putting your disadvantage in yourself. I mean, you have all these tools in your advanced toolkit, and you're basically saying, I'm only going to use my hammer. And it's just a limiting thing. I've been basically talking about this all week, so this is the stuff. Great. Yeah, I totally agree. And I'm not a native schema when it comes to offensive football. And so whether that means more RPOs, or it means having an option to do the short yardage play ass play action passes, or whatever, there's a lot of people that are smarter than me that could come up with more answers. But the number of carries that he has over these last two and a half years in short yardage situations for Baltimore is comparatively large when we're looking at the rest of the league. Okay, so they have been trying to do it.

26:01It's not fair to say they haven't tried to do it at all. He hasn't been successful at it. And it's probably also not fair to blame all of that lack of success on him, as opposed to other places. And it is strange because that's how to see. I mean, they had a very hard time getting a yard's before contact, okay? It changed dramatically in his time with the Ravens in terms of getting the first contact in level two. Now that really, you're taking a lot of the carries out of that when you're not taking like neutral down and distance carries out of, when you're not, yeah, we're not incorporating neutral down and distance categories. So this is fascinating to me. It actually goes in the other direction during his time in Tennessee, just absolutely fascinating. Yeah, yeah, I was about as shocked as you were because even though he was known as the leagues basically best back when he was in Tennessee, there were still, I've still seen stories. People have linked to these stories from his time and from beat reporters from his time in Tennessee saying that he struggles at short yardage.

27:03And so I think that it's just, it has to be some sort of a product of confirmation bias that we look at him and he doesn't look like other backs that can squeak through the line. And so we say, oh, I saw one thing two years ago of him getting stuffed. And so now, or I saw one report from a year and a half ago. And now there's just this thought that he's not a good short-ordered back. And I agree that he looks different than a lot of the other people in the league. James Conner was another one of the players that stood out in this analysis and Derek Henry looks quite a bit different than James Conner. But when you're that good of an athlete and you're that big, like if you can get any push and you can actually get to the line, I think that the data shows that he is very successful in the past at converting these opportunities. Maybe if you're interesting to think in that, I'd ask you this question. Do you think Derek Henry could be converted into an under-center, push-push player? I've heard that. I've heard of it. Yeah, I've heard a lot of people talking about that, obviously, in this last game.

28:05In the past, we've seen success with Mark Andrews in the push, and we've seen lots of success around the league. And I've heard a lot of people mentioning the same thing about Derek Henry that it can't be that hard to, like, conceptually teach someone to do a QB sneak. I think the biggest difference is going to be, you know, if his body frame and how tall he is, if he's able to get down into that position and effectively drive his legs like a Jalen Hertz. Everybody knows Jalen Hertz squats 600 pounds, and he gets down into the QB sneak and he gets forward. And I don't know if Derek Henry has the mobility and the flexibility to do that at a high level. I have to assume so because he's a world class athlete, but if they haven't tried that, I can't imagine why they, what they've been leaving on the table to not. Right, it'd be the kind of thing there might be things like Henry's concentration, keeping his hands properly positioned under center, being distracted by the field vision concerns might be different. I could see reason not to do it, but anyway, fast in any stuff. And we do already run him in the wild cap. So it's not outlandish to think that we do the wild cap,

29:09but under center a little bit. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, the under center, the Tush push runs, they would also take away the Raven's optionality in that thing, just like wild cap does, just like the immediate handoff to Derek Henry does. What I want to see more from the Ravens is the option to hand the ball off or not, or the fakery to hand the ball off or not that draws people out of position that decontenses the formation. So that's what I hope the Ravens will try and fix. And they went from one week from having an absolutely awful bunch of awful coaching decisions that looked like he came out in 1972, frankly, in terms of what they did. And then the very next year, the very next week, they went for it twice on fourth and one. And the difference between those and the missed passes are really the difference between the great reocune that we had and a 17 point Ravens win probably. It would have been kind of in cruise control if they continued all those drives, or even like three or four, three or five,

30:10or four or five of those drives. And yeah, it was a, this is a really interesting and new way to look at things. And I think the fascinating thing you've found is that he really was used more in this role in Tennessee on a purgain basis. Sorry, yeah. Sorry that he's, yes, yes, yes. He's rushing more often in Baltimore, yes. When you would think, yeah, the opposite because of how dynamic we have, you know, cross the entire offense with Lamar Jackson. Right. Right, more moused defeats, so to speak. Tanner outstanding stuff. I would love to have you on again. Anytime you're analyzing like this, something, I want to link to it for us, that's the first thing I said. And by the way, for folks out there, if you're doing this, this is exactly what I love to do. If people don't piece of original research like Tanner has here, I want to see it. And give me a chance, you'll come on air, we're gonna chase the vet it together. And most people, they do a study, they put in the five or six hours of work

31:12that probably went into this. You know, you certainly want to show it to other people at a spend some time, you know, chewing through it. And I really appreciate you, you know, spending 30 minutes with me on this one. Yeah, absolutely. And can I just say that if anybody's interested and they want to get involved with analyzing data, if you find the post in the Baltimore Ravens Reddit community, there is a link to the actual code that I ran that you can load it. And if you have Python downloaded, you can access the data in the same way that I did and do your own stuff. I need to become Python or Java enabled here at some point. There's certain things I've definitely fallen behind in, but I appreciate your talent. Tell folks where they can talk football with you online. Right now, basically just the Baltimore Ravens Reddit. I'm not really, yeah, not super online in terms of content creation. That's why I was surprised that you've reached out and really glad that I had the opportunity to chat with you. Okay, your handle is your own, but we'll mention it if you want to. If you would prefer not to, we'll just, we'll just, hey, you're out there. But it's easy enough for someone to do a little search,

32:14find this Derek Henry study and find out who you have to talk to. We'll leave it that way. All right, other folks out there, please use filmstudymailbackageemail.com for your questions. Maureen will get them sorted into the right show I guarantee you that. And that can include, we've got some great show ideas recently. If you've got those, I want to hear them. Maureen being the producer now means I've got basically an unlimited amount of time to create new content. And that's really great stuff for me and we're able to do this on a Friday night with Tanner. We appreciate you coming in. And folks out there, please hit the up Tanner. Thanks again for coming on. Absolutely, thanks for having me. And we'll talk to you next time on FilmStudy. Sarah Hernandez fights for working families. As a teacher, Sarah Hernandez helped students go to college. And when I attacked her community, Sarah Hernandez provided free legal help to immigrant families. Sarah Hernandez will fight for more housing, solutions to homelessness and a more affordable California.

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