Cut Xavier Worthy | Week 4 Matchups to Exploit & Avoid 2026

0:00Based on the box score that game looks like a shit show already All right, here we go in three two one. Hey, what's up? It's week four and Brian Drake and I are back It's John Hanson with another edition of the fantasy points podcast. We go through all the upcoming matchups We highlight two interesting Matchups mostly positive, but we do have some that we are not liking and a lot of good analysis and a lot of good data I'm feeling good about the week. So thanks for subscribing throw us a bone with a good review We might shout you out on the podcast if you do that by the way and you're welcome All across the fantasy universe we're ready to preview week number four on the fantasy points podcast I am Brian Drake joined alongside the guru John Hanson fantasy points calm and John before we get going

1:02I just want to say a quick thank you to all our listeners out there you have made John and I's podcast one of the top 25 fantasy football podcasts in the country We got the numbers for September. They were phenomenal best we've ever done I know John and I doing three shows a week So I just want to throw out their John. Thank you to our listeners Telefriend to telefriends share the show and keep John and I you know going here for another 10 years John We've got 10 more years of the show. Yeah, well, thank you to all the people who have listened and you know It's funny you say that because I've been meaning to to throw a bone to two people like Fish boy with a two wise Give us a great view review John and the rest of crew of the absolute lunchpale consummate professionals who will help you crush your leak So thank you fish boy With a pee by the way, so that would be fished the band I assume

2:06Also sure is one of my customers Zach Kerst Who said two months ago has been listening to me for years. He loves the way I analyze players And also we got Mark merge think Has been following me for years great listen blah blah blah time William fun. Thanks guru. Oh, here's one Drake is great by Austin in my the wait no, oh that's by Brian and Syracuse and Anson in my pants. Okay, but thank you for all those We appreciate it everybody out there and if you haven't subscribed to the website yet you just listen to the pod go over and do it What are you waiting for use the code DS to say 15% office subscription? By the way, have you seen what your boy Broly's doing on the prop side here? Guru he's been crushing and I think I've turned a corner last week I again I It's probably my fall I get such bad luck. I lose so many by so few I lost the jumper just in Jefferson

3:08He would last he got hurt you can't blame I know, but I think I've turned something of a corner, but you know the grinder the reason the grinder is great and I'm finally picking up on this my must be a little slow in the uptake It's not just the matchup. It's a lot of things like it's got to you know basically like It's got to be good across the board and we'll get to a couple of matchups by the way today Where I'm like I'm telling you This is happening like a good example was last year Michael last week Michael Wilson That was my number one prop and the reason was my number and I was literally in love with it Okay, the reason was because oh my god I just looked at the man. It was like everything lined up so perfectly and the line was good Oh my god This is my number one prop best bet all that and and that was an easy win So I think I've turned a corner and I'm gonna be Really judicious on these props. I'm gonna probably have about eight or nine of them

4:09I'm telling you they're gonna they're gonna do well this week. I'm feeling a feeling a big week We have an in-season betting package at fantasy points If you guys want to save some cash this is crazy Scott Barrett just sent me this note If you use code grinder And again, you know, there's there's a lot of jokes I could make here, but anyways use the code grinder It's a month to month subscription for this in-season betting you think it's 70 Percent off the first month with code grinder. Holy smokes 70 percent off the in-season betting package If you want to go see what the guru and the grinder and Joe Doleman are up there on the betting side But here on this podcast we go All through the week four slate and we're gonna isolate some matchups that John thinks we can exploit Maybe it's good. Maybe it's bad. Maybe it's a couple of good matchups. We're not pigeon hole in ourselves I know I've missed a few of these Friday shows John was working whatnot We're here and we're ready to rock and roll on the week four slate. So let's start things off We're back in London these 9 30 AM eastern sunday morning games are in our life again

5:13so the cults and the commanders have Things going on. I'd hotton. What is this hot spurs? I don't even know who know I hate soccer with a passion So I don't know a damn thing about soccer. I just spies soccer Colter four point favorites the totalness one is 48 So you love Josh downs and there's a lot of folks to been asking Josh down questions They want to think hey is this was it just a one week fluke John is Is Josh downs for real and I think with this offense and the microscopic a dot they have it just it works out perfectly for a guy like Josh Yeah, yeah, I think we were all on staff high on downs this year We we've all been high. I've been high on downs from the beginning I did set up an interview with a manus combine is a great kid I'm rooting for him this year to stay healthy because it's a contract year And that was one of the things I brought up like hey dude is gunning for a big time contract like his brother Caleb downs much higher draft pick is making more money

6:14But uh, he has hit five plus grabs on nine plus targets in two straight games He's clearly the number one. I don't love anybody in this game by the way You know the travel is always a little bit that screws you up a little bit And it's a little bit of a mixback because DC is actually been stingy to the slot They're giving up the fewest receiving yards per game six fierce receptions however Coverage wise it looks pretty good. He averages a solid 1.74 yards per route run Against two high safety looks which they run a ton of the highest rate of it 82% And actually went back and I look since the start of 2025 Down sees a 33.3 percent increase to his fantasy points per route run against two high looks So it's pretty good schematic matchup there for down So I do think he'll stay hot and I you know throwing it out there Tyler Warren should do well as well. Yeah, I mean you got to love a guy like Josh on last week 30% targets per route run damn near 30% target share see an end zone looks everything's going his way

7:15We've got another positive matchup that we like In this game and it's Stefan digs of the commanders guru I was gonna go McClaurne, but He every time you boast and he kicks it's unbelievable. I mean like just like I don't know if I said it on the pod last week But I failed it. I'm like the week before he and this is an example of my luck He dropped that touchdown in week two. I mean I would have won the prop if you didn't don't just just turn your body The right way and adjust to the ball and we win And I'm like oh Seattle brutal matchup now it wasn't DC he'll probably go off any did But any who I think Stefan digs is the safer play he actually does have a better Matchup by the coverages then McClaurne he averages 2.3 or 1 yards per route run against cover three and cover one Which they use about 56% of the time he'll also get a very good individual matchup inside against this Justin Wally

8:20Wally who I remember liking racially rice two weeks ago and he had a solid day wasn't great, but it was like 4 for 83 So digs again, you know you're not expecting the world, but He'll probably have a solid day with like five grabs 58 yards something like that and then if he scores now he goes off for you The Titans are at the Baltimore Ravens this game is actually in the United States So one o'clock kick off at MIT Stadium in Baltimore and by their nice little spot This is an 11 and a half point line for the Baltimore Ravens the over under 42 and a half john You don't often see an 11 and a half number of the NFL. Yeah, by the way. Have you been to Camden yards? I have I saw the Savannah bananas play last year there. Oh Wow, wow. Yeah, I used to take my oldest son there quite a bit when he was like a into a baseball player I've never been to MMT Stadium for a game, but I have seen a concert there Big big like festival thing in the early 2000s. That was actually very good, but any who

9:25Derrick Henry, I mean come on come on now like and here's an example I am o and five On my last Derrick Henry props yardage And I've lost by I'm telling you like a total of nine yards on the like you know one week I lose by two one We could three one one time it was one this time I'm not gonna play it on the site, but they're 11 and a half point favorites And Derrick Henry ranked second among all running backs in fantasy points for snap while leading it would Absolutely be stunning If he did not get a hundred yards and a touchdown now Tennessee does give up the ninth fewest yards before contact But also the eighth most rushing yards per game and they are the NFL's second most extreme Run funnel so far a negative 7.7 percent pass rate over expectation I think a lot of that is just because teams are icing out leads by the way Which the Baltimore Raven should do and then you know

10:28It's like every time I play a Henry pop it's in like a really close game. This won't be a close game No, I mean Derrick Henry right now is RB four in fantasy. This has got Derrick Henry 150 yards and two touchdowns all of it And it's Derrick Henry revenge game totally this is Henry going back up against his old squad. Although it isn't Baltimore So you also love Zay flowers and if you check out our social media clips Our sister show with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield fantasy football daily They were begging people to go trade for Zay flowers this week John. They're like there is no other You know, there's no lower priced player that you get right now who is going to be like top ten at his position You can get him undervalued right now and you love him this week. Didn't we do that on this week ourselves? We do the same show. Yes But but but I had flowers on my list, right It's a little tricky. Now I'm going to have to look It's a little tricky because of the injury. So you don't want to tell people to trade for a guy who's

11:31Let's see here Yes, we did he I don't know if we caught you touch on the podcast, but it's in the article. Okay, good So we're all we're all on the same page there, but yeah, I'm looking over Real quick Where we had him I did on my cheat sheet because I was I was very high Mr. Flowers and it's it's funny to see it now Yeah 34 his 80p was 41 so I made sure I was ahead of the markets I mean you can't go that high on a guy like flower, but he was on my top 12 Targets and all that he is it's I mean it's going way better and I could have even envisioned by the way And this matchup looks incredible Titans run cover for fourth highest rate. He sees the 23% boost to his targets per route run over the last two seasons Meanwhile, we're shot bateman gets crushed against that shell They also use the seventh highest rated to i safety's flowers averages and ungodly 6.13 yards per rat run

12:33Against that look He averages an insane 1.58 fantasy points per route run. It's crazy now. He was limited on Wednesday And he got in a full practice today. So he Will likely be removed from the injury report. So I wrote In Hanson's hence which comes out on Saturday. I've already wrote it that If he plays a full game he might equal what Davante Smith did in this matchup two weeks ago Which is catch 10 balls for a buck 17 and a tady on 13 targets. I mean this guy had 15 ppr points a week ago He only ran 64% of the routes, but his target per route row is 43% That's why I'm calling them the aFC's jsn Yeah, so he's I got him trying to get my hands on him in so many leagues, but People are giving him up because I'll listen to new ourselves And know that we want him well, they know they they if they listen and they know you're you were used to be a hater So they're like man I was I was a big zay hater now. I'm back on the team All right, let's take a time out here. We'll come back on it somebody who I'm hating on this year

13:36Drake may and the new England Patriots will get into their game against the Buffalo bills And so much more just getting started here on the fantasy points podcast Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify They have the tools you need to start and grow your business from designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond Shopify can help with everything you need There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Hines and all birds continue to trust and use them with Shopify on your site Turn your big business idea into Sign up for your one dollar per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer Guru I have never seen a guy who is finished second in MPP voting just playing the Super Bowl Three weeks in a season people dropping his ass and I'm talking about Drake man Yeah, I mean it is incredible what's going on with him and maybe it's the schedule and I just think it's there's a lot Maybe he's a little banged up his weapons are terrible But you don't love him in this matchup in Orchard Park against the bills everybody a road game by the way every game

14:41Is at home in Buffalo my god as I they got a new stadiums where every game is there Uh, one o'clock at high mark stadium the bills six and a half point favorites 48 and a half is the line Yeah, I mean, I'm just now he's gonna have to probably throw a lot because he's gonna crush him but yeah, it's At this point, I mean, I think there are real problems with the the quality of the Players on the roster big time. I don't notice Josh McDaniel's at all like Normally you're like wow, that was a great play design by McDaniel's or you know, it was really smart, you know watching him over the years I don't really Doesn't seem or feel to me that he's Part of the solution. I don't know if he's part of the problem But I don't know if he's part of the solution But the real problem is make may is just completely lost his confidence And this is not a good spot to get it back Buffalo uses cover three and cover four 58% of the time and he averages a pretty terrible five pointy to ypa It's not an ideal schematic matchup for most of his receivers based on the coverages

15:45Especially Romeo dobs now they may catch a break if Christian Benford doesn't play But may struggle in this matchup last year when he was the MVP runner up he through for 428 Squirrel is yard 0.0 touchdown passes in two games against them. So you know, that was last year in 2026 he leads a league in turnovers and he's been a complete bust You also love in this game the guy that I love the joke about James Cook Who if you're a James Cook owner? I know you're like oh my god What's going on here with all these bogart of touchdowns from Josh Allen James Cook is still RB12 right now, and he's still scoring at a really nice clip you look back at his games outside a week one The last two weeks john at a ppr he's had 19.4 and 20.9 so he's not killing it out there Yeah, yeah, there's a guy I do well with on props and I'm in again on the over I was last week and that did hit the bills are six and a half point favorites cook has gone for 100 plus yards and 10 of their last 15 wins

16:50Dating back to lash 100 That's a big number obviously 66.6% of the time And he also ranks third best among all running backs and fantasy points per snap while leading behind only junior Gibbs into our canary It is also a good schematic matchup when I looked at the data New England does give up the 11th few suggested yards before contact But they give up 4.83 YPC so far on man gap runs and 64% of cooks runs this year or on those runs and his averaging 6.43 yards per carry with a 57% success rate new England also gives up 2.60 yards After contact per attempt fourth most which bodes welfare's ability to pop off a long run. So he also and Final point of many He is leading the league right now in explosive run percentage at 22.6 So he's going to be fed the rock with a lead and he's going to probably rip off a couple long runs

17:51That's what he does and we've got to remember josh Allen is nursing a bit of a knee shrewd at So I don't think he's going to be running listen josh Allen is a freak You know he but I didn't want to put it out there josh at some point is going to get hurt because he just runs around he takes too many hits It just kind of is what it is But I got a good feeling about James cook this week Let's go down to the New York Jets They're going to travel to shi town to take on the bears who just dropped my eagles Last week. This is one o'clock kick. It's soldier field Casey Keenum y'all Casey Keenum look unbelievable. He's a three and a half point favorite here The over underlying 43 for Jets bears and you're going to pick on a couple of receivers here You know one you like for the bears and one not so much You're in on Luther Burton And I know a lot of people were really high on burden. He came through last week against Philly 41% targets per route run massive target day Ended up as a PPR wide receiver 13 and you like him again this week

18:52By the way, I mean I have they even announced who's starting a quarterback I guess yes, I believe they said Keenum's going to start again. Oh really? Okay. Well all right. Well, maybe not Maybe I'm pulling out of my ass, but I believe how can you not start him again after that week? I mean he did look incredible and it does seem like I don't know how sustaining it is, but man. He just gets that ball out middle of the field quickly processes quickly Professional quarterback of course and that does seem like a really good fit for this this system and the Jets and this should You know play right into his hands because the Jets have been an underneath funnel They give up the seventh most receiving yards unthrows within 10 yards of line of scrimmage and the fewest on the deep ball Which bodes well for burden, but it also bodes well for calie frame in and all that burden averages a so-so 1.67 yards per route. It's not terrible, but it's not great And they run that about half the time, but he's better against those shells than calie frame it

19:55Who is also looking good amazing? Yeah, he is and New York I'm talking about looking good going into this matchup based on pretty much Everything we're saying about burden also applies to Raymond, but New York also gives up the 13th most receiving yards per game Did a slot that's where burden is lining up just over half the time They've been a pass funnel as well Both teams are ranked top 10 and pace and plays per game So I do think that burden will catch another five plus balls If you look at their time to throw The bears with kingdom it was over a second and a half difference From kingdom to caliboliums a week prior I mean he just gets it out and I know Brent Whitefield said this a lot of times It just is a quarterback who's executing the offense and I tweeted out something similar people lost their minds What do you mean caliboliums isn't going well now calibol is fine But he doesn't execute the offense the way I believe Ben Johnson and your offense run

20:56You're right and caliboliums the the way he makes up for it is he's the superior physical ability Right he runs right and pulls something out of his ass and makes a crazy play Rose uh, ho, you know, I mean like he's got a cannon and he's hard to sack But yeah, like if you could take case-kane it was brain and put it in caliboliums his body I mean the bears probably win the Super Bowl Yeah No love for Raymond Khalif this week, but you're also now a huge fan of Roma Dunesay in this match I mean Yeah, it's it's and look he's getting pinched by the calib Because without calibol he really has no chance because he's a big play guy and you need a big arm So he's getting screwed. So he hasn't been that brutal He's got seven plus fantasy points in every game. Of course. He doesn't have eight plus So he's been in that range every every time every week and the jets currently give up the seven the fewest yards per target 10th-feuze fantasy points of game to outside receivers

21:56Not a good schematic matchup. He averages 1.26 yards per round when against uh, I think it's cover three and cover six Which they use half the time and as we mentioned before They're an underneath funnel Which means they're not good. They don't give up plays on throws traveling, you know, 20 plus yards in the air So that does not bowed well for Roma Dunesay Let's go on to Jacksonville and the exciting Jaguars are at Cincinnati for a one o'clock kick And the bangles actually two and a half point home favorites here interesting 51 and a half the liners and we're looking for some points in this game john I'm surprised the bangles are road dogs in this that's That's interesting. I think I would lay some money on On Jacksonville, but for this game I got a lot of tight end questions and I'm starting to get more and more on our guy Brenton strange and anytime you're playing the bangles You got to look at the tight end position and it just so happens. It's Brenton strange week

22:57Oh, this is the week. This is the week because Brenton strange no one remembers his name But they will after this one. I do believe the bangles are also an underneath funnel They give up the most receiving yards on throws within 10 yards of line of scrimmage But the six few is on the deep ball dating back to last year that boats well Brenton strange is second on the team with a 16.3 percent target share 10 yards and then We also have the fact that we're projecting Jacobi Myers to draw shadow coverage from DJ the eraser Turner as i'd nickname them who shuts down most receivers It is a good matchup based on coverages Against cover one and cover three. He's at a workable 1.73 yards per route run Oh, and by the way the bangles as you mentioned give up the second most receiving yards and the third most receptions per game the tight ends Like if he don't know it this week man then Remove them from the database. Okay. Don't even consider them anymore because I know it's only week four

23:59But this is a pristine matchup for Brenton strange you mentioned the shadow coverage on Jacobi Myers and because of that you have him listed as a bad matchup here Yeah, yep no doubt Um Here's a data point from our guy Ryan Heath Dating back to the start of last season none of the 11 wide receivers who lined up opposite DJ Turner on more than 50% of their routes Have exceeded 12 fantasy points in a game Which is bad for uh Jacobi Myers Since he gives up the six fewest receiving yards per game to outside receivers Thanks largely to Turner and the schematics of it don't look good either Uh, he averages a week 1.19 yard per route run against cover one and cover three uh and a terrible Target per route run number 0.10 so again I mean he's Jacobi Myers customer professional could always make a play could always score But it's looking bad on paper and it's looking great for Brenton strange And oh by the way also for Parker Washington would you drop Brian Thomas Jr. in a fantasy league?

25:00He has 15.8 points through three. Well, here's why I would do I have seven catches. Oh, I know Here's why I would like to not drop them Because if this Josh Cameron dude continues to elevate They should trade Brian Thomas Jr. Trade his ass trade him Trade deadline. We still have a what six weeks to go. So I yeah, but you know generally speaking If there's more productive guys on the waiver wire and you're dying. Yeah, the answer's yeah All right, let's keep cooking here Go on to the next matchup and it is Dallas and Houston a big lone star state of fair one o'clock at reliant stadium In Houston the Texans surprisingly three point home favorites and there's a 48 number out there For the over and the under uh, I think I would pick Dallas straight up here in this game Houston as a well I know Dallas's defense is tough, but Houston's Nothing with their offense looks good In this matchup john you're feeling our guy Jorge pickens. Oh, yeah, you know they got

26:08Joey Porter his his old teammate is now on the cowboy. So you got that going for you but nothing too a couple Late picks That's frustrating for Steelers fans because they've been dying in a corner for about 12 years to grab pay the guy Jesus. What are you doing? But this is it for pickens I've been waiting. I listed them as a player to trade for Last week I was inclined to do it the week before but I'm like you know why it's not the greatest schematic matchup So well, let's see if he has another bad game and then we could really pounce on it But um he actually had a decent game, but this is an unbelievable game It's all the single high two high stuff, you know, I wrote There's definitely weeks one and two that it was more lamb based on the two high and it was um But this week the We're up against the Texans team that runs a lot of too high at top five rate 58% George averages a team high 28% target share since the start of last season against the look his targets per rat run

27:11Increased 65% His yards per rat run increases 25% He has a massive 3.56 yards per rat run against that since the start against the look since the start of 2025 Texans have also been beatable deep They've allowed the seventh most receiving yards of throws 20 plus yards down field dating back to last year You'll see a lot of Kamar Elacitor who's awesome, but he's actually more giving Than the other guy his counterpart Derek stingley. So this is definitely a pickens week Javante Williams is rb 11 right now in a ppr if he drafted him You know third-rounder. So you're pretty happy with your investment But he's up against the one thing the Texans do extremely well. That's stop the run John Yeah, their past defense has not been as dominant, but you know, they're overall a great defense But they're also yeah very good against the run and and javante like he's He's fine, you know, it was a little underwhelmed a week too, but you know He was an easy call, you know, he was on my list like

28:14He's good. He's dominates the backfield. Granted, we didn't think the rb2 would be In such dire straits, but you're you're looking fine, but maybe not this week Euston gives up the six-fewest suggested yards before contact Night view is rushing yards per game. I even looked at the schematics. They don't look great 62% of his runs this year on zone concept runs and Euston is giving up only 3.6 YPC and those runs with a very low 41% success rate seventh lowest he did look great last week, but this defense also shut Johnny Taylor's ass down last week 23 carries for 68 and two catches for four So and they're also the only defense to not give up a touchdown to a running back Let's go to Arizona at the New York football giants used to be an NFC east affair Uh for you kids. Oh, yeah, Google low max. Oh look it up one o'clock kick at MetLife Stadium on that horrific turf the giants are dogs at home two and a half point Arizona favorites here

29:16And the over underlying 44 and a half John you have to sell me on this one. I zealikely. I know that I know that uh Our guide George Kiddell just smoked these guys last week, but uh, I'm nervous about this giants offense Especially the giants past game with James Winston at the helm. Yeah By the way, you jog my memory you brought old Arizona Cardinals AFC or NFC Euston all that uh, I have to bring up a quick story I'm a big I was a big rob more guy Syracuse guy Okay, of course. He was freaking awesome. I love rob more and I was arguing with another fantasy expert Because he was a Frank Sanders guy And I was like, oh, you mean skank Sanders So that's where I came up with the That was Kaplan's favorite nickname that I ever came up with believe or not Uh, even more so than risky Williams or hurt Warner uh anyways Yes, Isaiah likely Arizona does they are stingy

30:18The tight ends Given up the eighth fewest receptions they're middling uh in terms of yardage But they use the second highest rate of two high safeties likely averages the solid 1.92 yards per rat run against that look this season They have used cover four at the highest rate over the past two seasons and likely sees a 21% boost to his targets per rat run against the shell Coming off a horrible game in week three, but You know he was out there for 85% of the snaps and that was a monsoon right that was in a raster Cardinals are likely to put up a fight. I do believe So I think james is going to have to throw it quite a bit and Did you see week two he loves throwing it to likely he had 10 targets in that game He leads the team in target percentage or yeah targets share and targets per rat run And it's worth noting that George Kittle got him for six for 82 For two tuddies last week. So I like likely I luik him. I luik luik Lee

31:19And my guy Michael Wilson like we just got to say what a steal he was Absolutely in the middle rounds because people just they they're like oh well he's not gonna be the guy and it was just the splits with Marvin Harrison Jr Gone listen they paid Michael Wilson a ton of dollars right now. He's he's wide receiver 20 in a ppr If you go back and look at last week's eruption john 30% targets per rat run 35% targets Finish as the ppr wide receiver number four. Let's keep it going baby because if divante smith doesn't play I got to put Michael Wilson in my lineup. So I need another big week from the cardinal No, he's looking good. I regret not Giving him more love, but I did make sure I ranked him over his 80 p Uh, several spots at the very least and I did not go in on Marvin Harrison bang guys Oh, I know, but I you know, I thought about it, you know third year New offense, but he's playing that puker roll too now the giants are bad against the run, but there's still a top five past funnel

32:22Cardinals offense ranks top 12 and pass rate over expectation excluding last week's rain heavy game um I mean the giants um and and it's a good match up by the numbers here um For him he's got A nice first read target share 35.1 percent. That's the seventh highest He averages a strong 2.270 yards per rat run against cover three and cover one which they roll out about half the time So adding it all up Uh, and New York gives up the eighth most receiving yards per game in the ninth most receptions two outside receivers They've already given up four tuddies I played a Michael Wilson anytime touchdown prop last week in addition to the yardage prop on my vison show because I loved them That much and he hit both So I don't know if he's going to do as well, but he's looking good again I love that man. There is so much information in data suite 2.0 on every single game I'm just going through the games and we have what are called game cards

33:25And you can just look at each match up and you click on the match up and john I mean it would take you a an hour to go through all this information That we're giving people right at your fingertips here at data suite 2.0 Use our promo code ds2 save 15% off an annual subscription. It's it's gonna blow your freaking mind if you're a better A fantasy player you just love numbers. You just want to get smarter at football and maybe win a five dollar bet at the bar against your buddies It's incredible. You don't have to be a huge stat nerd either. I know some people are Very you know scared john and they're like oh my god. I don't I'm not a big stack guy I'm not in an excel and all it. It's none of that. It's so easy to digest It's created for the casual fan that you can read it you can understand it and it tells you everything you need to know great job To our tech team here Let's take a time out when we come back. Oh, I don't we have to I guess talk about my Eagles But they got their handfuls With the Rams this week and possibly a returning Pukinakua. We'll talk about that on the other side

34:25It's the fantasy points podcast Well as we're recording this john on Thursday evening word is Pukinakua is going to give it a go on Sunday against the Eagles. This is a one o'clock kick at the link The Rams are three and a three point road favorites 43 point over under here and While Pukin may try to play it's not looking as good for Devante Smith who If you're reading some of the beat reporters he can miss this week and potentially next week with hamstring john So that's not great. I had a bunch of people ask me hey, I got Pukinakua Should I put him in my line up this week if he's active and there's two trains of thought I want to throw at you number one. It's like start your studs If you got a Pukinakua and he goes off right you'd be miserable if you didn't play him But then again with this injury in his style of play I kind of want to see him make it through a game because he could go out there Aggravate it after a quarter and he's done and now you're screwed you're taking you know a zero I don't want that what do you want to do with Pukinakua if he's active?

35:26I'm playing him. I think if the Rams are going to give him the green light I mean they're risking a lot more than we are for a damn fake football teams over here I mean like so So I mean he got he got the it's a good schematic matchup for him He crushed him with 11 grabs in a buck 12 last year So I don't think he'll see a lot of Quinyon Mitchell By the way, which leads me to The negative matchup and it is Devante Adams now. It is a good matchup based on the coverages But Philly gives up the eighth fewest receptions per game eighth fewest fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers last year They did hold them down a little bit. He did score And he Presumably made at least one big play, but only three catches For 56 with a tuddy and again, I think he'll see a lot of Quinyon Mitchell per perhaps A ton of them And he's one of the stingiest outside corners in the league We got to pray for a fluke snowstorm as eagle fans here You also don't love Sequan Barclay and I know we talked about it on the trade show

36:30This offense looks better honestly when Sequan Barclay is now in the field It's a bad offensive line. You've got a a guy off the bench now playing center You took your center. He's playing guard. He's completely lost and there's just no holes And I don't love Barclay's vision and I really don't love him against this Even if Garrett may not or Garrett won't play and Aaron Donnell has him practice in a couple days. So we'll see if the Eagles can luck out and not play those two guys Either way though. I don't love Barclay No, no, I mean, I'm Kind of regretting any love I gave him this summer quite frankly I thought he'd be a little bit more involved in the passing attack and in fact in the matter is I've never been a Barclay guy Based on what you said and I think we said that last week, but it is what it is, you know, it is a good ol' line Overall is a pretty good environment, but you know this week and by the way last year in this matchup And they were struggling a little bit more than they are now, but you only got 18 carries for 46 yards and four grabs for nine

37:30and LA gives up the 11th fewest rushing yards per game and the 10th fewest yards per carry to run him backs so Yeah, I mean he's I don't know. I don't even know what to tell people like I'm telling you I guess you yeah, I guess I guess you the only the the number one thing You can hope for is that he rips off a long run and he scores on that run Which is a lot to ask He to make a baseball analogy as we're deep in the MLB playoffs. Oh, congratulations to your Yankees as well for winning Thank you beat the sh- I'm on the red socks. It's great Barclay to me is Giancarlo Stanton of the Yankees where you just look at him And he's gonna strike out a million times and you're just sitting there waiting go boy if he connects this thing is gonna go a long way That's what he does, but for the majority of the time, you know He's a 200 hitter or less because he's just popping out the left or running into the back of his guard That's kind of sake one Barclay for him. It is

38:32Tampa Bay and Green Bay. Well, this was the Bay of pigs as Chris Burman used to say right? This is a 1 o'clock kicker Raymond James Stadium How about these Packers coming in three and a half point road favorites 38 and a half of course the big story in this game Undrafted free agent rookie Jalen Daniels is gonna get the start for Tampa Bay So John your matchups that you're digging and you're not digging you love and our guy Christian Watson We could just plug this in every week you love Christian Watson You know, I haven't really like Played a lot of his props yet or anything like that. I've been waiting for this one though Because this is this is it. I'm already I think I put it up on the site already actually And my my prop article but any who I love it absolutely love it Packers are throwing it on Way more downs than last year The bucks are A past funnel because their run defense is excellent The coverage is that he'll see or are good cover three

39:36They use that 50% of the time so far. That's top three Watson gets a 14% boost to his targets per route run against that shell Meanwhile the electric Matthew golden has seen a 33% reduction to his targets per route run The bucks are also second and blitz rate of course behind the Vikings and Watson's target share grows from 19.4 to 25 against the blitz While his 2.96 yards per route run against the blitz ranks six best among 78 qualifying pass catchers So big time Christian Watson game this week One of the great things about the data suite 2.0 is you can click on something called the bell cow report Under the rushing tab and you can just look up certain players and see how they do in all sorts of great categories And I'm checking out our guy Bucky Irving and I got a feeling he's gonna get a lot of work John because Listen, he's playing 63% of the snaps on the season. You know, he's got 60% of the rushing attempts They said he's healthy. He left last week's game and you know, he was standing on the sideline people are one

40:37And like, oh, does he have some sort of injury and we're gonna get a little Kenny gain well time If a with John if we're running out of UDFA quarterback here in They are going to try to run the rock and establish the run maybe that's not the greatest thing with their Crap-tastic offensive line, but if ever there was a week they're going to try to make it a Bucky week. It's gonna be this one Oh, sure. Yeah, I don't know what that bell cow. I guess it sorts the players by expected fantasy points perhaps You can change it to all kinds of things. Oh, oh definitely. Yeah, I'm looking now But he is 10th in expected fantasy points per the bell cow report by the way, which is very encouraging, but again, I you know pretty obvious here green Bay is Not bad against the run they allow the 13th fewest adjusted yards before contact They do give up the third most rushing yards per game and the 14th most receiving yards per game But then again, breeze hall two weeks ago was like a brick wall 16 cars for 29

41:395 for 63 now I do think that maybe we'll get a little bit more Kenny gain while going forward with the rookie quarterback Maybe they want him out there a little bit more first pass catching prowess and and pass protection and all that but at the end of the day You know, he did get he did kind of get crushed by the Vikings last week and now And now we're we're starting an on draft of free agent. So you want to talk about heavy boxes You know, so that's a problem You know, it's funny. We talk about this run game and we all have always loved the bit with Syracuse guys I read today That the bucks want to get Sean Tucker more involved And I'm like, well, I mean How are you going to do that you you're not getting Kenny gain well involved where you're paying the most money to in this back field You still have buckie Irving who's a quality running back and now you're talking and we got to get Sean Tucker involved like What are we doing here? There are mess Todd balls is They had Dave Canal to not building at Liam Cohen in that building and you're sticking with Todd balls

42:42That's just not I understand loyalty You know the Glazer family they seem like very good owners But man You probably should have sent sent my man out to pasture no offense. He's made enough money Just sit back and retire because you know, I want to be a defense coordinator. Hey fine But that man is not a head coach. I'm sorry Miami is in Minnesota to take on gurus Vikings. It's a 405 kickoff at us bank stadium We got a ten and a half point line for Kyler Murray and the Vikings his home favorites here At the over under only 39 points. So they're not expecting a ton to have happen here John I think a lot of it is on Miami side because their offense is horrific Somebody that you're digging in this game How about Kyler Murray? He's getting ready for the new vice city game to drop in November But until then I mean he's got all eyes on football. You were patient zero for the J. J. McCarthy experience and now that's over with So it's all Kyler all day and you're feeling him against the fence

43:44That's sickning um, I think he will like he's a front runner This is one of the worst defenses in football. Of course. He's gonna do well It's freaking Minnesota. What did I say on this podcast last one? I was like no no And he didn't have a good game, but this is a good one Miami they give up explosive plays Schematically, it's not bad against cover three and cover six. He's a 2.52 YPA This year They give up the fourth most passing touchdowns per game They've allowed two plus touchdowns to a quarterback in every game so far Last week pat him homes average 10.3 yards per attempt. So let's assume that Justin Jefferson is back And if he is Kyler will probably throw two touchdowns. He's probably gonna make A few big plays on the outside to to Addison and J. J.

44:44You're also feeling on the other side Malik Washington Washington's guy who's still available in a ton of leagues and yeah Seems like the waiver wire this week has just all been Jets and dolphins guys and I don't know how smart that really is But you know people are trying to take their shots on on Chris Bell and and you know Caleb Williams Or not Caleb Williams, but uh, you know they want to get a piece of Malik Washington I don't know necessarily if That's going to be the smartest play week to week like Maybe you really do have to pick your spots with these guys But you'll like the opportunity for Malik Washington and just maybe speak to a broader Topic of when you'd feel comfortable playing any of these Miami players and including the backfield that's going to have a few new faces in it Well speaking to the backfield shout out to our friend Scott Pianalski who had a funny tweet The other day that I didn't interact with it, but I did laugh it was like the only thing worse than winning your Olly Gordon bid No, the only thing worse than losing your Olly Gordon bid is winning your Olly Gordon bid. I saw that

45:48I'm sure he's probably a plug-and-play that he's used for other players, but that's a good one man That's so true because you're like I gotta I gotta get in on it and then you're like I got a bit a lot and then you're like oh my god I didn't win him in one single league Um Trying to get my hands on Olly Gordon here. Yeah, that has a million impressions. Shout out to Scott Oh, does it million impressions right now? Actually pinned the tweet good for him I love Scott him and I go out the dinner every year at the fancy football Expo good dude. Yeah, good for him But you know what I Thought Malik Washington was one of the most useless players skill players in football last year. I was he was terrible I was so Worthless, but it's different this year like he's running more downfield routes You know look at the end of the day. He's he's the he's I view him as the alpha at this point like I granted only a few weeks in the books here But you know Caleb Douglas is probably gonna miss another game

46:51Chris Bell's hurt Jell and tobert is on a milk carton by the way It's they have nothing but Malik Washington now we did see a little bit from our guy Greg Galsich last week So maybe that'll continue, but you know This is actually a pretty good matchup based on the coverages here Vikings are very too high Safety heavy 69% of the time and actually over the last two years Malik Washington ranks only second behind Jackson Smith and jigba with a 34.2 target share against too high a lot of that's like near a lot of Scrimmage stuff and all that You know dump off screens and all that but uh Washington's target share also grows to 32% fifth best And his yards per route run doubles against the blitz no team blitz is more than the Viking So I mean it might be ugly don't watch the game, but I would expect him to probably haul in another five or six balls I'm gonna squeeze in one more break when we come back How about the battle of the unbeaten's out in the desert Kansas City in Vegas

47:51Raiders always play kc tough See with the guru who thinks about this matchup on the other side. It's fantasy points podcast Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify They have the tools you need to start and grow your business from designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond Shopify can help with everything you need There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Hines and all birds continue to trust and use them with Shopify on your site Turn your big business idea into Sign up for your one dollar per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer It seems every year john the raiders start you know two and oh now they're three and oh And it never lasts. I think I made that point Oh for a number of years with Derek Carr on this team And you know they start two and oh and we're like the raiders are back. They look unbelievable and then of course they end up 8889 whatever the case may be yep this year three and oh I'll give it to them their fantasy defense putting up double digit points every single week

48:56Now they're not doing it necessarily on the back of action genty outside of week one Brock Bowers is a thing we've gotten some useful outings out of tray Tucker What do we think happens this week john in a matchup where They're playing against a real team now you're playing at Kansas City chiefs and you're all in on racie rice to have another good week for the chiefs Yeah, cuz one thing is pat my homes just tortures the raiders didn't matter what coach whatever He just does very well and this is a good matchup cover drives for Raci Raiders using cover three and cover six about 50% of the time is a very big number here 3.11 yards per route run Against those coverages this year on 37 routes LLV gives up the second most receiving yards 4th most grabs two slot receivers Chris Alave who does line up in a slot quite a bit crushed them last week Rice in his lone matchup against the Raiders last year for what it's worth had two tuddies Seven grabs for 42 so I yeah he's looking good and I'll get right into the negative one because I

50:03Was proud of myself for not giving Xavier worthy any love his first two years in a league But this year because I thought oh, you know, they're gonna run the ball Maybe he can start hooking up on some big plays while he's not done crap So I regret that and against the cover three in the cover six My man stinks 0.73 yards per route run doesn't get a lot of targets Vegas gives up the third fewest receiving yards and the second fewest receptions to outside receivers So forget it with Xavier worthy FYI you can cut his ass too probably The guy ran 23 routes last week that was the most routes on the team at the wide receiver position He had two targets. I mean they don't want to use it. It's already over he stinks Let's move on to the Los Angeles Chargers going up against the world champion Seattle sea hawks This is a 425 kickoff at Lumenfield in Seattle Seven point home favorites are the sea hawks over underlying here at 42 and a half guru in this game

51:05You're not feeling a lot and you're especially not feeling Our fella lad Mcconkey come on. He's a good lad. Oh, he's up hanged up lad though. He's got another injury Uh, he's you know the Irish they've been through a lot They usually play hurt but not not lad well that is playing hurt It's got the slack jacket on he's running around trying to make plays. He's the only guy that got in the softens at this point But he's got another injury this week now. He's got um what is it a calf? Let's take a look uh foot Great now. He's got a foot problem. I was gonna say he only has one foot that is a problem Yeah Not the greatest matchup coverage wise. He's more of the man beater Sea hawks are zone heavy They run at 89.8% of the time. That's top four Mcconkey sees a 29% target per route run decrease against zone Sea hawks give up the 11 fewest receptions and 9th fewest receiving yards to slot receivers

52:06He's not always in the slot, but Also now it is a good schematic matchup based on the cover three and the cover six but between the foot the zone And the matchup in general you know It's in Seattle too. So they're going to be pissed I mean Herbert's not getting crap in this game now and that's probably also why you don't love quitting Justin Oh Now there's a guy I've never liked and I was Proud and happy to keep him off my target list this year against the cover three and the cover six Johnston and he doesn't even get to one yard per route run point eight three yards per route run meanwhile tre Harris Does better on those so maybe this is the week right now that tre hours overtake some because they get I know they Would they pick up the fifth year on quentin johnson like why the hell they do that I'm not sure I'm gonna look as contract up now now maybe look They did change the system

53:07And maybe he was better off in the previous system It just doesn't seem to be working at all Next game on the docket. Let's go to Denver at San Francisco Denver fresh off that Comfort behind the victory over the Rams four 25 kick in Santa Clara Levi's stadium This is a game where the 49ers to an half point home favorites over under 48 In this one john I'm getting a lot of questions on the old twitter machine at Drake fantasy about Jalen waddle is he back is he the guys should I trade him what's going to happen with jalen waddle here They're spreading the ball around a ton you're in on him against the 49ers Well per a guy Ryan Heath he's got all the good data reports Against the cover three which the 49ers run at a top five rate. That's where he marrs is deal Since the start of last season waddle averages by bar the highest target per route run of any bronco against cover three His yards per route run increases to 3.17 which is eighth best among all wide receivers and represents a 68 percent boost

54:11so Not a coincidence that his one big game Came against a defense that runs a lot of cover three week two against the jaguar. So it's a wild game I love this stat on our game hub at fantasy points.com Debo samuel set an NFL record with 80 receiving yards without a reception last week Yep, yeah, cuz he scored on a hook and ladder, but you're not feeling him this week I mean did they don't have a lot of other options here. I know there's folks. They're really tempted to squeeze Debo in a lineup Now I mean lucky you could always do something on a Design play or manufactured touch You can get a carry, you know you could You could get a hook and lateral you know what I mean like and Run it into the end zone, but Denver runs a lot of man coverage fourth highest rate He stinks against a man. He has not seen a target yet against man coverage Wow, so that's incredible. It is fairly incredible. So

55:13That's always been the case. He's kind of easy to to handicap you start him against zone You're benching against man and they're man heavy Let's go to the Sunday night affair Detroit is in Carolina at Bank of America stadium The lions three and a half point road favorites 51 is the over under I love seeing that let's get some points Baby in this game on Sunday night and you John You're calling for a James and William. This is it. We haven't seen any This year people are dying for James Williams to do anything and you're saying it's gonna happen Sunday night Oh, yeah, forget about the numbers because the panthers just lost their top two starting outside corners So this is shootout city in in Carolina. They tend to bounce back to against You know after tough losses under Dave can Alice at the very least and looking at the digging into the numbers here James and William since the start of 2025 sees a 23.3% boost to his yards per route run against single high looks Which Carolina uses a top five rate of 64 percent

56:17He also sees a 33.3% increase to his targets per route run against single high versus too high So this is it make no mistake Jamo Williams For the win this week. He will make a big play Probably gonna get to a hundred yards. It was a tough outing last week for Tatnik millen Only three point seven fantasy points caught two of his five targets But you're feeling a bounce back from the big man Feel no shootout lions giving up they've given up the most passing yards per game so far They've given up the ninth most receiving yards per game and the fourth most receptions to outside receivers Like Garrett Wilson who crushed them last week 10 grabs for one oh seven We still have the cocker issue You know, he's still banged up and Detroit runs cover three A lot 44 percent and he's a solid one point eight five yards per route run So and and pretty good target number two So I think this is going to be a tech game also Darren Waller But I definitely like to bounce back this week

57:19Monday night at the super dome in New Orleans The Saints are two and a half point home favorites with a 47 and a half line against the Atlanta Falcons John in this one we're firing on all cylinders here We want to get pieces of this passing game We're gonna start on the Atlanta side with Drake London Who is the happiest man in America that Michael Pentax is back in the lineup Oh, it's absolutely incredible Uh that that chemistry is absolutely real. It's why I said what two weeks ago The Drake Lennon was the most obvious by low that in the history of the the article the 15 year history Saints running uh cover three 56 percent that's the highest rate in the league He averages six yards per route Against the coverage this season so a lot of that was probably the last week So we're looking good keep keep going to him He got four for 78 with a touchdown in his loan matchup against this St. Defence same defense last year So we're looking good could be a little hybrid a little bit of a shootout as as all same games seem to be

58:22Exactly Travis ETN can't call him H&T Travis ETN Placed on injured reserve on Thursday. There's gonna not gonna be any running of the football Kendra Camara forget about it. We're throwing the rock and we're gonna throw the rock to Devon Bayley Well actually no, I'm gonna go negative. Oh Well, we're gonna we're gonna throw it read my notes my bad dog if I marked out incorrectly You did you got Bayley down as a good match up here my bad dog See that I set you up to fail. Do you know how often I use my bad dog now like in my real life When I said to people you rubbed off on me Yeah, you know that started with the Antonio Brown farting The most famous fart in football history that he was recorded and show that to my son later. It's so good my bad anyways for Bayley I used to love talking about that one radio. I'd say it's so dramatically like this is the most impactful Wind breaking in the history of the national football league

59:22There's no more of famous a fart than Antonio Brown's fart anyway Not the greatest matchup based on the coverages for Bayley He only averages 1.12 yards per round against cover three and cover four Which they run about 62% of the time They give up the six fewest receptions per game to receivers in the slot now look He also got only three for 37 in his lone game again If you need him go ahead and use him But I'm just saying I had to find something to sink our teeth into and that's what I came up with that not the greatest spot for Valle not the greatest spot for shock as well though. We'll see I mean he's every every spot's pretty good for him But this is not like ideal I think we don't shock ranked is our number one quarterback we do this week I saw that that I don't understand that I Really don't maybe it's rushing Because he he did have 10 carriers for 56 with a rushing touchdown. Oh look at we've updated now. He's down to third Yeah, is this the right I'm gonna look at the right way. No, I saw that myself and I was like

1:00:25I don't know about that one, but then again If you just rank shook at in the top five Every week so far you're looking good Yeah, we have changed it's now Josh Allen Joe burrow Tyler shook his third I have him personally Actually, I got him a six Yeah, I got him a six All right, John well, let's go watch some baseball if you want the rest of john's Hanson's hints that'll be out sund uh Saturday night Saturday night at fantasy points.com John will work that out before you. It's great for setting your lineup. It's great for prop betting Everything that john is thinking for the week comes out on Saturday In Hanson's hints again if you need a discount code and who doesn't in the world today use code DS2 and save 15% office subscription john great stuff I'm gonna go see who your Dodgers are gonna beat up on in the next round and uh for the guru on Brian Drake We'll see you next time on the fantasy points five days

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