College Football Betting Preview | Week 5

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3:12The Big Vets on Campus Podcast. Podcast. All right, here we go. 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 25, 50, and the kick is black! The comics took over on Standa! Oh my goodness! He stumbled and fumbled! The lateral! To the corner of the end zone! Get you the lead! They're not gonna keep them off the field at night! Holy cow! It's not the size of the dog in the fight. It's the size of the fight in the yard. What's up, the Generat Nation. Welcome to the Big Vets on Campus Podcast. Presented by DraftKings. This is the week 5 college football bedding preview.

4:12I'm stuck in joining me as always. My fellow BBOC co-host, Colin Wilson. Colin, it's been a good couple of weeks. You ready to keep it rolling? Ready to stay green. Last week was a battle. We'll see how tonight goes with Tulsa, some funky line movement. We'll see how the week gets started off here on Thursday. We will talk Friday night games. I kind of like North Texas, so we'll see. I have them in around Robin, but that should be an entertaining game. We'll get to the Friday night games. Pretty some very intriguing Friday night games. Great. Later in the show when we go three and out. We'll hit some marquee games in just a moment. Then we'll go through the rundown. We'll try to hit 20, 25 games. As always, we even got some mumps. Hand up. I didn't know mumps were still a thing. I thought mumps once they were eradicated like polio was. Maybe that's dumb. But I didn't think they were still breakouts of mumps. I know that there's been breakouts of measles,

5:14but I thought then, I guess that makes sense. There'd be mumps too, even though I guess fewer people are getting vaccinated. I didn't know mumps was a thing, still. Still kind of exists, but I think it's easier to deal with than getting exploding diarrhea from your produce. Right? I like to do that. When I go shopping, I always pick up lettuce, but you don't get one of these 13,000 brands. I'm like, what's left? And then she says all the ones that are contaminated are actually rebranded to something else. It's crazy shopping for produce. But we're referring to San Diego State, by the way. There's an outbreak of the mumps on the team. They're going to be missing multiple starters confirmed. And who knows how much worse the mumps can get. I'm not a mumps expert, but we'll get to that game in just a bit. It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up betting for week five. Let's kick things off.

6:14Let's start with the game. I'm thinking I'm looking forward to the most this week. Alabama, Mississippi State, new, which kind of sucks. This is 11am kick. Alabama is going to be traveling there the morning of, which is very bizarre. We'll see if that has any impact. Alabama is a six point road favorite. Total is ticked up some to 60 and a half. These are two quarterbacks who have been playing at an extremely high level. In Kiel and Russell and Camario Taylor. I mean, combined deep passes this year. 20 plus yards downfield. 24 or 41, 858, 11 touchdowns. No interceptions. No turnover worthy plays. In Kiel and Russell's also provided a spark. You have to worry about him and his elusiveness. So like it's helped the running game for Alabama. Now, Alabama still have these like ebbs and flows in their games. And maybe that's what you get with an inexperienced quarterback and new offensive line. But the defense is allowed. Some explosives and has been up and down.

7:18Half to half depending on when you look at an Alabama game. But the tide are definitely playing well. And so is Mississippi State. You miss Mississippi State now in the top 20. This is a team and back to back to back weeks has gone two Minnesota tough place to play. Two South Carolina tough place to play. And then beat a top 25 Missouri team last week. Three great efforts in a row. Three covers. What are you seeing here? With Mississippi State, Alabama. I will say right off the bat. Over makes sense to me. I mean, I could not play an under in this game with these two orderbacks. Some of the lapses we've seen from both defenses. The one thing that now and also I will say. Alabama faced Florida State a couple of weeks ago. Three three five defense. They throw some unique looks at them. That's going to be good prep for this game. Zach Arnet three three five. Gonna bring different pressure looks. And then you also had Mississippi State last week faced Missouri.

8:22And Cory Batoon who worked under Kane Wallback. Similar defensive structure. So that could be good prep for the Mississippi State offense. The biggest thing that I'm worried about. It looks like Isaac Smith is going to play the very good defensive back. Mississippi State has some very talented defensive backs on their team. The one thing I'm most worried about by far. In this game. I guess there would be two things. It's. This Russell in this Alabama off and Towslow of a starter they get off to. And like with all the cowbells, the weird travel. And 90 minutes. Bus ride at seven o'clock in the morning. Yeah, I mean, this is an Alabama team against their. Their after their main opponents that they faced. Their first two drives on each of those games. Interception fumble. Punk punk punk punk and then a 75 year touchdown pass. So it is not started. They have not started fast. Usually they have been in the past.

9:23They have been fast starters under a key. On the board. But like how much. Can the levee script usually pretty good in the script. Can Mississippi State take advantage of early in the game? Can they jump out to a lead here? But the thing that worries me the most as. This game. Progresses is the left side of the Mississippi State offensive line. And we saw. What Alabama eventually did to Kentucky. They ramped up the blitz rates. They brought a ton of pressure and kind of suffocated Kenny Minchi and that Kentucky defense. Do we see something similar? Because Miles McVeigh is not an SEC caliber left tackle. He is very, very poor. And next to him is DJ Chester who we've seen for years can't play at this level against top tier competition. So that left side of the offensive line. And Taylor's numbers are a bit shakier when he's facing the blitz and if the pressure is going to come to him.

10:27And he can't get the ball down the field where he's been so effective. Then you could see some three and outs. Mississippi State is going to have to run the ball here to set everything else up. Stay on schedule. Very fascinating game. Two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country. What are you seeing here between Mississippi State and Alabama? So I grabbed six and a half early in the week but it wasn't widely available. So I didn't put it in the app. So I've kind of been waiting to get six and a half back. But now I don't think it's coming back. So I'm probably going to put six in right after we talk about it. Scott, the interesting market movement because it got hit. Alabama initially took money and then Mississippi State took some money. And then Alabama has taken a little bit of money since and we said it six. Most of the books that I think you and I trust open four and a half immediately took Mississippi State money to three and a half and then boom it was like a float of public Sunday night Monday morning on Alabama that pushed it all the way up. And I look I think the game five so I can't argue against any move that's going on. I just thought six and a half was too much.

11:28Grabbed it wasn't widely available in a place that a lot of places you know a lot of people couldn't get. I will put in six and I will back Mississippi State here. And I'll start on you know the side of the ball with with Camario going here. I mean the negatives for Bama right now are their defensive tackling and their finishing drives. Both of them are outside the top 90. Camario has tripled his career in TDs and look I've been saying it on this podcast. It's not Camario hate for me to say that he's even in big time throws and turnover worthy plays. Like the 14 to two TD to I and T ratio is great for all the other people on their broadcast to talk about Camario and in the Heisman. But the numbers just they're really not any better than say Keelon Russell. I mean they're real I'm underneath the hood. They're not really any better than some of the other leading quarterbacks that are around the nation right now. Taylor's got a 54% success rate versus cover three against Kane Volmack. That's that's pretty mid FBS. He'll be okay. He's had 200 rushing yards half of those camp come on design calls from Levy. That'll come into play here. But I think really what you're seeing is the fact that Taylor has been so successful

12:29is allowed fluff boff well to get back up to four yards after first contact. I mean Bama's pretty tepid against outside zone which is what Mississippi state's gonna run. And then Anthony Evans to me I said this on this podcast before he's the MVP of this team. He has 20 more targets than anybody else that's caught a pass. He's averaging three yards per route around. I mean that's the guy I think that you really got to shut him down because that's the one who Camario always looks for in the passing game. But the biggest advantage of these players is being in space. Bama cannot tackle in space. They're 94th in tackle grading. They're outside the top 100 like I said in defensive finishing drives. They can't stop points from going up on the board but they can outscore you. So I don't know if anybody has the balls taken under in this game. But just remember South Carolina with Kendall Browse was up tempo and that game finished for 67 points. You know on the other side of the ball I don't see Alabama. You're right. I for some reason in the second half they have been able to go to the locker room, redraw everything up and come out on fire. And they've scored at least 45 points in every game they've played.

13:30Right. I mean if you take it under here you're going to have to sweat this. But they're top 25 in rushing success rate. They have a methodical offense. It's not all based on explosives. They're fourth in finishing drives almost at 28 possessions that have crossed the opponent 40. They're averaging 5.4 points per trip. Almost six points every single time they get on the other side of the field. I mean the Bama offense is cooking. I mean that's, Keelon Russell's got to go in and Zacharnets 335. That's improved coverage, improved tackling. The one year he was gone, he was head coached, offensive coordinator before. Kind of a disaster. But the numbers are way better and they were last year on defense. I think the one stat where Bama is going to get caught at some point this season. But they won't hear. Is it Keelon Russell right now? Is it 3.1 seconds time to throw? That is extremely long. But considering Zacharnets 335 doesn't really send blitz and they try to rely on that 3 man pressure. Keelon Russell is going to be able to sit in that pocket all day and throw here. So I just don't see the bulldogs getting any kind of stop whatsoever.

14:30And they can't stop inside zone, which is Bama's primary rush concept. So I'm making all of these cases for the over. I projected at 59 where it's 16.5. I think it's moving the way that it should. And my opinion stuck, I think this is back and forth, back and forth. It's a possession game. I'll take Mississippi State in the sixth. It's on the board right now for the full game. Mississippi State's live in this game, in my opinion. But how you stop Alabama right now, as much as you're doing in the second half, I have no clue. Yeah, I mean, Arnett's got to send some blitz's play gamble. Mississippi State has one of the most underrated secondaries in the country. I think, I mean, Keelon Jones is a future NFL player. Marcus Williams, Jet Jefferson, Isaac Smith's a future NFL player. He does everything for them and it looks like he's going to play. They've had some injuries along the defensive line, which might hurt here. But Arnett's got to dial up some unique blitz's and try to get to Russell and force him into some mistakes in a hostile environment, especially early on. We saw that against Kentucky. So yeah, this one should be going. I'm at like 4.25.

15:32So I really want to seven here. I also like Mississippi State first half. Maybe some first half money line. I think that, you know, we've seen Alabama in these slow starts. Levy usually pretty good with his script. You might get some Russell mistakes early before he settles in. I mean, that's what we've seen almost. I mean, even against South Carolina last week. South Carolina had like 130 yards on their first two drives. But I think would they miss a fuel goal and turn it over on downs? And it's interesting. Yeah, the reason I could never go under this game, there's going to be explosives everywhere. Yeah, I mean, Alabama, surprisingly is there are bottom 20 in the nation and allowing 20 plus yard passes. Mississippi State's top 20 in that department. You're going to get Russell extending plays and hitting explosives. And that is not what you want with an under. I'd say this. Watch the first two series from Alabama. Every time Keelon Russell takes a drop back, if you can count to three before you let's go with the ball, I just bet a live over. Because I mean, if he's allowed to sit back there without pressure

16:33from Arnet and getting a blitz, there could be a lot of touchdowns. Yeah. All right, let's move on to Florida. Let's stand the SEC. Florida at Missouri. This line has been kind of stuck in a dead zone. At Draft Kings right now, Florida is a five and a half point road favorite at Missouri. Total is 57 and a half. I can tell you right off the bat, I'm going to be on Missouri. I hate it. I mean, I hate this Missouri team. Although I've come around on some things about Missouri. I mean, I wish they had a mod hearty because they just, they can't run the ball effectively without him. It's just not the same caliber. I mean, you just look at the after yards after contact. They've gone from like first in the country to outside the top 100. Because to all Roberts, he's a decent back, but he's not a mod hearty. But Luke work has been surprising. And then obviously, Caden Green's one of the best left tackles. So their tackle combo has been very good.

17:36And I was worried about their tackle combo with their right tackle injury to Atkins. And that's important against Florida. You need to be able to block their edge rushers. And there, but there are things. And then the Missouri defense, which lost a lot, I've been impressed with. I mean, there's been Chris Gray's has played better than I expected. But Daden Hopkins has been a menace at getting to the quarterback. Joliel Florence has been great in coverage. And that's those are some of the things that they need. And now a couple of their edge players are questionable. I'm assuming they're going to be back in Langdon Kitchen and Dara Smith. That's worth watching. Eli said they need to practice on today. They were recording. I got to check that later. But that's important for depth. Now, look, why am I betting Missouri here? I don't like, look, Buster Faulkner. The Florida offense is incredible. They're running a ton of 12 personnel. 11 personnel, they're cooking everyone. No matter what they're doing, run, pass, Jaden Ball, he do Clark, you name it. They're, this offense is incredible.

18:36And you have Buster Faulkner versus not one of our favorite offensive coordinators. No. And Ship Lindsay. And the thing that petrifies me the most is Austin Simmons. As a turnover machine, historically, hasn't turned it over yet, but has a boatload of turnover-worthy plays. So does that all come this week? So why do I like Missouri? Well, number one, the number. I told you last week, they're going to make, this should, this can be three. That's what I made it. And I had Florida as a top 10 team. Florida looked really good, but I, hard that was the spot. I love Florida last week. Got had some turnover lock that helped them. Oh, Lacey was out. So, I mean, I bumped them a little bit, but I think that this line should be maybe, you know, three and a half. So five and a half with the spot. I mean, this is just college football. Florida went to Auburn one, smoked Ole Miss. At home. Now they're hearing how great they are. I mean, this is just natural to have an emotional letdown. Additionally, I don't think Bernal Brown's going to play.

19:38All right, I'm hearing he's out. Now, Singleton will be back, but he's not really cutting. He's just kind of like running go-or-outs. Stopped in might miss. So their wide receiver room is not, you're still going to have Dallas Wilson. But I mean, missing Bernal Brown kind of does hurt the versatility of this wide receiver room, especially if Stockton is out too. Now, maybe Maze breaks out and look, it's a fall in her offense. They're going to score. But the Florida defense, there's issues right now. I mean, you look at their statistical profile. I think that Missouri might be able to get their power run game going a little bit, which might allow them to control the clock. You want to throw in the intermediary range against the Brad White defense. And that's what this Ole Miss offense is doing with the likes of Kaden Lee and company. And Simmons has the arm down. He just has to avoid the mistakes. I mean, can you do that? I don't know. We'll see. But the Florida defense has issues. I think Missouri can match them.

20:38Florida might be a little flat here. At five and a half, I'm, it like touched a juke six. I'm just waiting before I lock this in. I would love, love, love, love. At seven, never happening. I don't know. I mean, I assume the public's going to be all over Florida. Yep. Short money is keeping this down. I don't know why. Why do we need to be hitting five and five and a half? Can't we just wait if you're a darker account? Like, let this get to six. So yeah, I'm waiting. I will be on Missouri at five and a half. Am I scared? Yeah, of course, but it's a spot. Yeah, it's a spot for my baby. Look, I echo everything you say. I haven't put a single bet in the app and I haven't put a single penny down because I have a strategy. At the beginning of the week, I listened to the press room drinkwits this week. And as presser, we cannot tolerate any more slow starts. Then goes on to mention a couple of questions later. Motion creates miscommunication in the secondary and that's where we're getting torched. So what do I do? I go down this wormhole.

21:40Absolute wormhole. I'm trying to find out is Florida use motion. Missouri right now, the easy stats to find was the fact that Missouri's outside the top 100 and not just first quarter scoring, but first quarter scoring differential. Like it's been bad. First quarter has been really bad for Missouri so far this season. So why in the world would I want to take a four and a half or a five and a half on a number that I know five minutes into the game is probably not going to be the number that I want? Right? Or at least the number that I obtained is not going to be good. Then I went and dig some digging on some motion. Mississippi State who just torched them with motion and got the secondary all confused from Missouri only runs motion 37% of passing steps. Florida runs motion 57%. Faulkner is going to move a lot of guys pre-snap. There's tons of like seven guys in the backfield crisscrossing and I mean they use tons of motion and they're crushing teams that are running man. The tune does like the run man. I'm assuming and hoping you got to run more zone here.

22:45And I just live with some of the run explosives that you're going to give up the ball. Missouri's been bad in that department. But otherwise they're going to get just cooked by all of the motion with man and they're going to get confused and crossed up. Yep. So I hope that they run a lot more zone this week. Well they have and drink a mention this. We have cleared it up in the second and third quarter and then fourth quarter. It's like I don't know if it's fatigue or what he mentioned but there's kind of a dip in their scoring. So if they are able to make adjustments by the second quarter by the time they've seen a couple of series from the other team and they're able to make adjustments against motion then from a betting perspective and from an investment perspective I actually want to look at this game after the first quarter and jump in on Missouri. And there are reasons from the way that I handicap games to say that's probably the side you want to be on in the first place. Jaden Baw utilizes a lot of outside zone counter power. They're most explosive and outside zone and power. Missouri has a 66% success rate in defending outside zone and they produce a negative EPA

23:46against their opponents. Similar against counter and they're about mid-FBS against power. So everything Florida runs on a ground perspective with Jaden Baw. Missouri has been pretty good at defending. This should force Florida to probably run some inside zone. They're okay with that. Aaron Filo only has two big time throws this season. That kind of shock me. I looked in his numbers. FAU both of them against FAU. Like he has a big... No, it's okay. It's all skied. So I'll just... Right. And he's still to my receivers and ball. And every other numbers really washed out. Like havoc numbers, past block pass rush. They're all really washed out. Now in the Missouri offense, like they just have no success running the ball whatsoever. That's kind of an issue. Because Florida is 137th and defensive stuff rate. If you want to take advantage of Florida, you could do it on their defensive line. And the Tigers are just poor success rate without outside zone. Their secondary concept of inside is just above average and success rate. And then Austin Simmons, like I know I'm not making a case for Missouri here.

24:46But Austin Simmons, for having 11 TDs and no I and Ts, five big time throws and six turnover worthy plays. These upside down and where he should be as far as making good plays versus making mistakes. Now there is an EPA advantage here from Missouri on the offensive side of the ball in the passing attack. But the Florida havoc needs to be dealt with or eighth in FBS. Florida's really that all comes really in the secondary. Their fourth in P.B.U's and I and T's. Simmons gets rattled and covers zero. That's really the only thing that's really got him. Florida's run covers zero about 20 times with their defense. So we'll see if that gets unleashed. But really to me, this is an easy script. I'm not taking Missouri pregame even though everything in the world says that they're going to cover and potentially win this game. But the fact that they can't pick up pre-stab motion and it's destroyed them. And then they've had to make adjustments. And Missouri's done this almost every game. Like they have been so much better in the second third quarter than they have in the first quarter. I'm going to play on that script. I'm going to look from Missouri live at seven or better. Whether it's in the first quarter after one or two series,

25:48I'm just the first chance I get. I'm hitting Missouri once I get that TD. And I've got to update it to back it up to say they usually fall behind and then come back. So let's see if they can follow that script here. Yeah, I'll be on Missouri pregame. The only thing I would worry about is the Florida comes out a little flat. But I don't mind that adding to Missouri if Florida jumps out to a lead. The Florida secondary has issues. I went back and watched some of that Ole Miss game. There were guys wide open. That champion was missed and sometimes didn't have a chance to pick. Now, Florida's havoc numbers are really good. Part of that is because their edge rushers have been really good. They went up against the Auburn offensive line, which is atrocious. And then the Ole Miss offensive line, which has poor tackles. Missouri has good tackles. So I think they can limit the havoc. The big question here. Because this is like strength on strength. I mean, I have Missouri as a top 15 schedule adjusted defense. Even with all the turnover, like they've done a good job in the portal and replacing all of their loss production.

26:49The biggest question for me, Simmons has to avoid turnovers. Because this is strength on strength when Florida has the ball. And then weakness on weakness when Missouri has the ball. Especially, their passing game can have success against Florida. But they're running game. Can Missouri run the ball in Florida? Florida has been able to stop the run. Missouri hasn't been able to run it. Because if Missouri can run it, you keep that Florida offense off the field. And Florida, you know what Florida has been doing? This is classic Faulkner. They've been wearing the shit out of teams. They've been wearing down teams. Go look at the Auburn game. They're on the field. Auburn defensive is on the field for 40 minutes. Look at last week. They crushed the time possession. Now you're playing teams that go fast. And they're just able to move the ball. The running game is so good. But if Missouri can, it'll help Simmons too. Not like everything's not on him. It'll reduce his turnover worthy plays too. If he's not having to force it all the time, especially on third and long, he to the game can be, and I think Missouri will be able to run it a bit more this week.

27:51But that's something I'll be watching as well. Should be a good one. Very, very bad spot for Florida. Wouldn't be shocked if they get upset. But I think they end up pulling it out. But I'll call it a fuel goal gators win. All right. Let's finally move on to Ohio State. And Iowa, Ohio State is a 14 and a half point favorite. At Iowa where game day will be, Iowa with one of the biggest 2DX of the entire season last week. I mean, at one point, they were being outgained. I think before the final drive, it was like 350 to 110 or something. And then they put a 90 yard drive together. Score on the final play of the game. They also had a kick return touchdown. All their explosive plays came on tipped passes. They got absolutely, they got a pick in the end zone. A fourth down style. Like one of the most improbable wins you'll see. I think Bill Connelly had it with a 7% post game win expectancy.

28:53Ohio State has taken, there's some initial Iowa money. Then some Ohio State money, I was part of that. Once it got under 14. Draft games right now, lines sitting at 14 and a half flat. Look, this Iowa team, Hank Brown has been okay, but there's no explosiveness. I mean, you just, you cover Tony Diz and then that's it. They can't run the ball at all, which is very surprising. They have a good offensive line, but their rush numbers are atrocious, especially if you look at the competent opponents that they played. Couldn't run the ball at all against Michigan. Couldn't run the ball at all against Iowa State. And by the way, that game didn't age as well. If we saw Iowa State play Utah. The Iowa defense, what do they do? As always, under Phil Parker, they're going to limit explosives. They're going to play with a lot of two eye. They don't want you to get explosive. They want you to drive the field and then, hey, you're eventually going to make a mistake. And we're going to condense the game that way as well, which marries with our offense.

29:54But the Iowa defense has, the defense of line is getting no push. I mean, you look at their line yards numbers. It's very poor and they're getting no pressure. So, can they slow down the so-highest aid offense? Now, Ohio State does have issues. Like, if you look at their team, I don't, their defense, which is more reliant on transfers this year is nowhere close. It was good as it's been. You look at, I mean, look at what Illinois did, right? Their pass rush is down. Their rush defense is down a bit. And Ohio State's rush offense is still leading a lot to be desired. And Iowa's run defense has been pretty good. But, I mean, look, the Iowa defense is, there's not Phil Parker's most talented unit. Look at Michigan. Bryce Underwood has looked like a pro-ball NFL quarterback last week. Two receivers going for over 100 yards. They're moving the ball up and down the field. That's as bad as you ever see in Iowa defense. Look. So, Ohio State is definitely not flawless, but they have Jeremy. Now, the question becomes, what does Iowa do to slow down Jeremiah Smith?

30:58It's really interesting because he's pretty much unstoppable in college football. But do they just like try to double him at all costs? They'll probably still get open. But that's what you have to do. You have to try to do it against Ohio State because there are other weapons aren't as overwhelming in talent as of this moment as they've been in the past. But to me, I had to go out of state blows the doors off of Iowa. Now, maybe this, maybe Iowa, Iowa was this game. But I mean, look, Ohio State's not even playing slow anymore, which is good, because you wouldn't want like Ohio State going, you know, running the clock down every single play, and then Iowa going slow. But the fact that Iowa can't throw it, their defense is not the same. They can't get pressure on saying, Ohio State is going to build a lead. And I was not going to be able to do anything about it coming from behind. And this Iowa offense is very easy to defend. It's just like, hey, let's cover Tony Diaz. And then they can't run the ball.

31:59So, you know, Hank Brown's been better than I anticipated, but there's no explosiveness in this offense at all. So I like Ohio State. Need 14 or better though. Who are you? Yeah, I mean, I took, I took Ohio State 14 early in the week. Generally, when I'm betting Iowa games, I have a little bit of an uneasy feel. I don't really have that problem with this one. Ryan Day made it a point at media day to talk about what happened the last time Ohio State traveled to Kenic, just 2017, had a piano dropped on him. I think what was the score? 55, 24. I mean, Iowa, Randall, Ohio State out of the building. And that was Ryan Day's first year as an offensive coordinator. So it still sticks in his mind. He still thinks about it. And this team is going to be prepared and probably not caught off guard. Yeah, I also, you bring that up. It's a great point because I like the spot for Ohio State too, because already I have a loss on the schedule. And again, they should have won at Texas. So the sense of urgency is still there. I think the sense of urgency is ramped up even more

33:01after last week, right? Like you had an underwhelming defensive effort. Grabbed your attention before going to Iowa. Additionally, what you need when you're laying 14 in a game of the total of 45 and a half is a couple of weeks ago, the game they lost, they were up 20 in the fourth quarter. So it's, if they're up 20 now, hey, put on the pedal. We're not messing around here. We have to bury them. Would you, would you argue that Texas's offense as a Baroque is Iowa's? I digress. I'll move on. Look, Julian Sainz numbers right now are really great. I mean, he has just one turnover worth he play on the season. He's had an uptick in drops and an uptick in pressure rate. And he's only made one mistake compared to his numbers last year when he was a freshman. He's playing very, very well. His numbers are clean. He's playing clean and that's what you need to do against Iowa. His numbers are shaping up really well for the Heisman, but that works out for Dermy Smith too. It's going to be still, I mean, say in his probably going to have to wait till next year

34:04to even get mentioned for that. But you know, the Iowa 425 that Phil Parker puts out there is led by linebacker, Cam Buffington. Cam Buffington has nearly doubled the second leading tackleer on the team. Like he has so many tackles as insane. So I'm sure I'm sure I was figuring out a way to isolate Cam Buffington or at least figure out where he is on the field and get away from him. Parker prefers to run a lot of quarters. I went back and pulled Sainz numbers against quarters since the beginning of last year. 70% success rate and a half point positive EPA. I mean, he's good against quarters. So from an offensive perspective, I have no problem back in Ohio State. You go to the defense, they have struggled against the run this year. They're 100th and success rate against the run. They're outside the top 60 in line yards. That's a little bit shocking to me. It's a big time down. Yeah, it's a big time down. Now, this is still a havoc defense. They're top 25 and havoc and that's all led by 26 pass breakups.

35:05Which really isn't good for Iowa because Tony Diaz and DJ Bono, Boname and Evan James, they've hauled in just five of 15, 50, 50 balls. Which I'm starting to look at a lot more contestant catch rate. Like if you can't pull a 50, 50 ball down, that really matters in a lot of our handicaps. And Iowa has not been pulling down 50, 50 balls at a 50% rate. Now, Iowa has the second most 20 yard rushes in the country with Camarri Multan. And I went and looked at him and Jackson, Williams and McNeil. I looked at all of their explosive runs because these explosive EPA kind of jumped off the page at me. For Iowa. Yeah, I'm staring at it right now. Third and rush EPA. But then you go and dive into their numbers. It all came against Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois. So, I was peer outside zone. Ohio State is the one run concept they actually defend is outside zone. So, forget it. I mean, the defense has the right ingredients to stop the outside zone. They're very good in the secondary. I don't expect Iowa to pass anyways.

36:06Julian Salem destroys quarters. To me, this was an easy bet. But again, I agree with you. I actually make this 17, but I would say 14 or nothing. And it's moving too. Like it did down to 13 and a half. When I decided to partake, there was only one 13 and a half on the board. It was minus 120. I said, you know what? I'm just going to take 14 and get it out there. So, let everybody know if I'm comfortable with 14. We should all be comfortable with 14. Is there any 14s out there so we can put it on the board or no? You just... I'm looking at it now. There are... Yes. Yes, there is four of them, I see. Okay. You want to put it on the board? Yeah. Yeah, let's put it on the board. By the way, thank you for the comment for someone who said, make sure you recap the board at the end of the show. I've been telling myself that and keep forgetting. So, that was another good reminder. So, I'll make sure to recap it. Agrees are 69, 49 and 2, lifetime 58 and a half percent. Hey sports fans, your away game road trip doesn't start at the kickoff. It starts on the road. Before heading to the game in Eugene,

37:07take a moment to enjoy the journey and explore Toilets and Valley, located just west of Portland and north of Eugene, sip world-class Pinot Noir, soak in picture-s views, and craft a game-day trip you'll talk about all season. Take the scenic route to Toilets and Valley, and make every mile part of the game. Learn more at ETVOR.com slash fans. Hey, it's Ryan C. Crest for Albertsons, Vons, and Pavilion. It's stock up sale time, which means you can save big by stocking up on all your personal care favorites. Now, through November 3rd, shop in store and online and save $10 when you spend $25 or more on participating products like Dove, shampoo, and anti-perspirant, skin-to-mint razors, La Rial Conditioner, Q-tips cotton swabs, Trace Simehaer Spray, and Jurgens Moisturizer. Offer ends November 3rd, Restrictions Apply, offers May vary. Visit Albertsons, Vons, or Pavilions.com for more details. Chatchy PT can do more than answer questions. It can help you get real work done. Chatchy PT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps.

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39:11and scratch and scratch. When you're moderate to severe exima isn't well controlled, it's time to ask about DuPixant, DuPilliumab. DuPixant helps block a key source of inflammation inside the body that can cause exima, helping adults stay ahead of it with clear skin and less itch. Severe allergic reactions, including skin reactions, can occur. Get help right away for face, mouth, tongue, or throat swelling, weezing or trouble breathing. Tell your doctor right away of new or worsening eye problems, like eye pain or vision changes, skin symptoms, joint aches and pain, or a parasitic infection. Don't change or stop other treatments without talking to your doctor. DuPixant helps you feel the heal. See the difference for yourself. Talk to your exima specialist, visit duPixant.com, or call 1-844-DuPixant. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. Oh my god, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanyu, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.

40:14And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not gonna get any worse than fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business, and I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Lier. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I don't really care. Vandy at Georgia. Georgia's a 25 and a half point favorite,

41:17total 50 and a half. Big news here is Jared Curtis, the Vanderbilt quarterback, stud freshman. Who, by the way, storyline in this game was originally committed to Georgia. Fliped, went to Vandy. Now he's going to Sanford Stadium in front of the Georgia crowd. Will, he play or not, I don't know, he's questionable. He's been very elusive in getting out of sacks and extending plays. He's got a very live arm, probably makes some freshmen mistakes. So like that adds some uncertainty to it. Like, Georgia's been a covering machine. All their gains have been going over. If I knew Curtis was playing, I could see playing Vandy in the under here. Like, Vandy's going to try to ugly this up, shorten the game at all costs. Georgia just beat Oklahoma. They've been blowing out everyone. They had Alabama, at Alabama next week. There's no reason to run this up. So like, I don't know, 25 and a half, I could, and then at 51 or better, I would look at the under.

42:19But the Curtis uncertainty, I need more. So nothing there as of right now. You got anything there? Yeah, under all the way. I took under early in the week. I would still take it right now at 50, 15 and a half, whatever's out there. I projected it at 45. But besides Jared Curtis potentially not playing in this game, I don't think Nate Frazier's playing in this game, which means Choncy Bowens is going to be the guy that runs the ball the most. That's a major downgrade elucidness. Not in success. Georgia's still running the ball. It's just he's more of the red zone tank than he is. The guy that goes, you know, in the middle of the field. But other than that, Mother Nature's playing a part here. Like, we have weather all over like every single SEC school. There's a lot of places that are getting flushed with rain this weekend. This one's I think 50% the entire game of just pure rain. So, considering I don't think Vandy might not score a point. Considering who does Georgia have on deck? Alabama. This could be like 50 rushing attempts, five passing attempts. So this is an under all the way. There's a 51 and a half out there.

43:20You want to put that on the board? Absolutely. Oh, there is. Yes. I'm going to put that right now. All right, moving on, Kentucky. My Wildcats at South Carolina. May we might disagree on this one. I played some South Carolina minus two and a half. The line currently sits at three. There are still some juice two and a half out there. It's falling. Total 54 and a half. Over is starting to take some money. South Carolina playing with pace. Their offense, their run game has been really good. That's where I think they can have some success against Kentucky. I played South Carolina two and a half. Would play them up to three. It's basically just on a spot play. I mean, Kentucky. This line, this look at line was seven. And South Carolina gets blown out by Alabama. By the way, so did Kentucky. And that was at home. And then Kentucky covers barely against South Alabama's backup quarterback.

44:20And we went from seven to below three. I know Dylan's sorkat suspended, but he's done nothing for them this year. I think they can run the ball on Kentucky. Kentucky's run defense has been leaking. South Carolina is actually been very, very good running the ball. Sellers has not been great, but he's adjusting to a new offense. I think this is the bottom of South Carolina. Everyone's just, the beamer might be fired. It was this game. It might be fired anyway. But Kentucky riding high, LSU at home on deck, big game. I think they can come out a little flat here. South Carolina just played. Camario Taylor. And then Keelan Russell and back-to-back weeks and lost. Well, Kenny Minchi and these receivers are not that. I think the South Carolina secondary can hold up. And they'll be able to run the ball on Kentucky. I think we're getting them cheap spot play here. I like the Cox. You disagree. You like Kentucky when they're dead? No, I don't want to go ahead and head. And I know you want to meet two. I have a real problem with Kentucky, but I have a bigger problem with South Carolina. All right, so Lenora Sellers, four big time throws seven turnover worthy plays.

45:22His last two games against Mississippi State and Alabama. He wasn't getting a lot of pressure. And then in the last two games, 14 pressures from the state, 16 pressures from Alabama. That's 30 pressures in two games. That's a lot. Now, the one stat that's absolutely would scare me to have any money on South Carolina is that there's already been 14 drops on the season. To quantify how big 14 drops are by the past catchers of South Carolina, there weren't even 14 drops the entire 2025 season. There weren't even 14 drops the entire 2024 season. I don't know what's going on with these South Carolina pass catchers. Lenora Sellers doesn't even have a third of the passing attempts that he's had in 2025 and 2024. And he has more drops than he's ever had in his entire career. I don't know what's going on with that past, but that receiving unit. That would scare me to have any. But let's talk about the good stuff. Matt Fuller and Lenora Sellers are going absolutely crazy within SideZone.

46:25Right. I mean, Fuller is two people on the ground. Yeah, yeah. 5.1 yards after first contact for Fuller. Highly successful using InsideZone. Kentucky's horrific InsideZone. 43% success rate. So that's the reason I could see back. I could see back in South Carolina and why I don't want to go all in on Kentucky. But this South Carolina passing game, holy cow, if they get behind and they have to start passing in any game, I wouldn't lie about them. I wouldn't even touch them. So there's not a lot of answers on the South Carolina defense. They're near deadlass and defensive finishing drives. They're close to deadlass and defensive passing success rate and EPA. They can't handle other people's passing attack. That would scare me. And Kentucky can throw the ball. I mean, it's not the last two opponents they face, but I kind of lean on the over. I do like the over. I'm right on target at 54, but we're about to hit a key. I think because South Carolina is going to be able to run as much as possible

47:26and their defense is laying down for everybody, I think the over is actually the better play. Here's enough. I already am saying I'm going to play Chip Lindsey against Buster Faulkner. I also played Chad Morris. What are you trying to do? Are you trying to be blackout drunk at 2am with a Chad Morris loss, a Chip Lindsey loss, your favorite coordinators? It's that I took 17 and a half. I was I'm at like 15 and there's a bunch of Miami injuries in the secondary. Now, classic can throw the ball, but there are also a little banged up on offense. Miami's played one opponent all year and a bunch of scrimmages. I mean, look at the strength of the schedule. Take off. There are hundreds of spot difference between these teams. Clearly, Cristobal. What's that? Are you going to Cristobal's not feeding them? Like you haven't won at Clemson since 2010? I mean, Cristobal also has a terrible big favorite historically. He gets to get too conservative. They could have lost it. Wake. They get a couple without a couple of bad penalties and a 4th downstop.

48:30That game was going to be in jeopardy. Clemson's secondary is legit, by the way. They've really sorted it out in the back end. Some of their transfers, hey, dabbo, you might want to do that. Other positions, their transfers have hit it. Safety, Ashton Hampton's a player. I hope Clive and Next level, he could be a first round draft pick. And Miami's kind of banged up. Their running game hasn't been great with this new offensive line. Can Clemson run enough and ugly this game up? Because their passing game is horrifying. They can't throw the ball at all. Take Reynolds can't throw it. The good thing is, Cazina couldn't throw it either, but Reynolds will has helped the running game. So they just need to run, ugly it up. Dabbo needs to say some prayers before the game. Get a couple of bounces. And I mean, just it'll be an electric atmosphere. Great home field here. There might be some weather, some rain, which will help the dog that needs to run it and hurt the electric passing attack. So it's it's scary because Miami can

49:31has one of the best passing attacks in Clemson. It's one of the worst from among power four schools. But I like the Clemson secondary. I think they'll be able to run it here. I'll glean it up. Mainly too many points. So at over 17, I like Clemson. Yeah, I mean, at 17, that's the way to look. I make it 16. I just can't join you. I think Mark Fletcher is going to play to play against Central Michigan. He's not on the injury report, the availability report for Miami. So at least I would think the first half Fletcher is going to get his legs back because I'm going to need to. He's probably. Yeah, but Miami is going into a buy after this game. Right? So it's like, I don't know Christopher Ball's line of thinking. Like do you give Fletcher like half of his workload and then let him rest with a buy week coming up or do you want to get him back and going again? The one thing that I just can't get in on this Clemson team. I don't even care if it goes to 18. And I know I better be against Cal. I think I was the only person I had on his Cal. But Tate Reynolds, he has yet to make a big time throw. Hasn't had one yet. He said five turnover worthy plays. And three of them came against Cal.

50:33He's been like a bottom half quarterback in the country. Like he had seven. He had seven designed around calls against Cal. He finished with a grand total of net three yards. How bad is Miami secondary? Are you going to be missing? OJ Frederic? I don't know. I don't know because I don't think. You're not just missing Frederic. There's a bunch of them. There's a cluster injuries in their secondary. Look, I know Clemson's had a tough schedule. But they don't have a single advanced stat in the top 100. I mean, they're 133rd down conversions. They're 136th offense. They're past defense. Offense. Yeah, offense. Yeah. I was, I mean, I was, I was referencing Miami secondary saying can Clemson take advantage of that? There's nothing in the stat sheep that says they can... Yeah, it's scary. Like you just got to run, run, run, throw some just prayer balls up to your town to take you in the first quarter and hope hope it refs let it run out. I don't know. I mean, serious. The offense, the numbers aren't that bad for Clemson. I mean, I'm getting over 17. The total is 47 and a half.

51:36Like, I don't disagree. I said I'm making 16. I think if the 10, they might cover. What mood is crystal ball in? That's really what I'd like to know. You know, like you're going into a bind. Is that mean you call off the dogs run the ball? And crystal ball seems to always botch one of these games every year. So like, don't be shocked that there's some Clemson voodoo. By the way, this is the first time Davo has been a home dog since I believe 2012 against Florida State. And that was the only other time. And that was a six point spread that did get drilled. But that year, uh, this is this is a big number. Big, big number for Miami who's played one team with a pulse and they didn't come close to covering. Uh, I just think Miami's a little bit overbidied. I mean, they played Florida A&M Central Michigan. By the way, Central Michigan, I think that line is still taking off. Let me say Central Michigan has been really bad. But I don't think the market is currently. Let me see what this spread is at. It's currently caught up to how dire the Akron situation is.

52:40Like they're obviously missing Poffenberger. That was all of their hope was on this transfer quarterback. But their defense now lost all of their best players to season ending injuries. And like, none of this stuff gets reported. There's no Akron coverage. Um, so their defense doesn't have anything left. It's one of the reasons I got destroyed by UNLV last week. So I know it's hard to lay. I mean, Central Michigan's out to six and a half. I think Central Michigan buries him. Drinkle has said he's, he thinks about the loss to Akron. They lost to Akron last year. Um, that he thinks about that game 50 times every night. This week. So, um, I'm sure they're going to be focused. Akron is in bad bad shape. Do not, I would not bet them. I know it's like why Central Michigan laying six and a half. You can't get near Akron. Anyway, all right. I know we're going head to head here. Yeah, we are. I'm going to put it on the board. I'm actually, I'm actually, like the more that I'm like contemplating what we're about to talk about. I'm a little shocked. This isn't my brownbrop.

53:41And but since we're head to head, let's just leave it as head to head. But I love this enough. I, and what time is this game? 10 o'clock. Central, Eastern can't wait. You're going to be sitting around with all these coordinators. Either wins or losses. I don't know. You're either going to be loving life or hating or feeling like you survived like death and sit at this game. All right. Here goes. That's Malley for no reason. So yeah, we're talking about Arizona Cincinnati. Mark, it says you're right. Highlight seven. You can get six and a half out there. Two six and a half. But this came down from eight and a half to seven. I said I wanted seven or better. I don't know if G, I am assuming. And I think because he tried to give it a go last week. And it was like, hey, it's Washington State. I think Giovanni Richardson is going to play. He is huge for that offense. They were cooking BYU. Destroying that BYU seconder up and down the field. Richardson, I think five catches on seven targets in the first quarter. And then he got hurt out of the game. It really hurt him. I think he's going to be back this week. Cincinnati is yes, they're 4 and 0.

54:41This is the most, and look, they're running games really good because their offensive line is really good. This is the most fraudulent 4 and 0 I've ever seen in my life. I mean, they've been by me, Ohio, who's way down this year. Who they were down 20, they got a miraculous comeback against Miami, Ohio. They were down 28 to 10 in that game. They had no business winning that game. They beat BC, the worst power 14 in the country at home. And by the way, the defense in that game gave up 388 yards to BC. They got out game by 50s. They don't be fooled, but they won by 19. And then their other wins are Western Carolina congrats. And then Kansas State last week. They ran all over Kansas State. They were down in that game as well. They were down what I think 17 to 7 at the half. This team's getting down every single week. And then they ran them out of the building. Great, Kansas State at home. What a win. Arizona, by the way, is yet to cover. I think we're getting them undervalued here at home.

55:45This since he defense doesn't do anything for me. I think Fafita, especially Richardson is going to back his back and throw all over them. And I like the Arizona run defense. And that's what you need against since the Arizona lost five defensive backs to the NFL. You can attack them on the back end. Can JC French do that? I mean, has the guy attempted to pass down field yet? I mean, he beat, would he beat BC through for like 60 yards? Arizona's run defense can slow them down. If they get a lead here, they're not giving it up. Market says you're right. I disagree. Give me the wild cats. Also traveling. This is the first time they're really traveling anywhere outside the state. They're going out to the West Coast. 11 PM Eastern kickoff. That has an impact historically. Worth about a point. So yeah, this is so high on Cincinnati. And your satir field is horrendous as an underdog in his career when he tests a step up in class.

56:51Cute start for Sinsi. Give me Arizona. You disagree. I make it for and I've missed having Cincinnati on my card a couple of weeks and I really wanted to go into this week and not forget about it, especially in this prime time spot. I wrote this up for action so there'd be a full preview out there. Look, the Cincinnati offense dominated Kansas State in the second half with the run. Heavy outside zone with J'brand pain and JC French. I mean, pain is 4.4 yards after first contact. Cincinnati's top 10 in rush EPA. They can run the ball absolutely. Look, that nickel defense for Arizona. They're very light on pass rush. Now, they don't send a lot of guys. They've either got three or two down linemen depending on what personnel they're in. But the Arizona defense has seen a 12% drop in success rate from defending inside zone to outside zone. That very much plays into how much success Cincinnati is going to have on the ground here. And the Arizona defense is terrible in passing downs. They're 117th in a opponent EPA.

57:51Like, they just cannot handle it when their opponent gets behind schedule. And I expect Cincinnati to do that. And French should dominate cover one. That's what Arizona's preferred coverage is. He has 68% success rate. You go back to, you know, don't well, then don't play cover one. I mean, come up on the line of scrimmage. And the sense is, D, like, I mean, it's hard to make a case to defend them. I mean, they're bottom 10 in a pass rush. Russian success rate allowed. They can't defend inside zone. One of the best second level tackling team in the nation. I know that, like, where does Colin come up with this? But like, if you're going to try to bust explosives, it's really interesting that you can't control the line of scrimmage, but you can tackle 10 yards off a ball. That stops scores. And Arizona's running back. What is this? Kendrick Riscana? He is an explosive. He's in one attempt. Go over 15 yards and 39 attempts. 39 rushes. You've had one explosive. It should be more than that. And Fafita is putting up his most elite numbers in his five years.

58:5210 big time throws two turnover-worthy plays. Spivy leads and targets. The entire team, I think, has had just four drops. But again, 50-50 balls jumped off for me this week. They've only caught four of 12-50-50 balls. Contestic catch rate is just not there for them. And that's what this could come down to, especially with our poor Cincinnati's defenses. Assuming what was the G-Money Richardson? Assuming what is he listening to? It's questionable. He's questionable. But he tried to go last week. So he was really close. Yeah. I think he's going to play it too. He's their best receivers to match up nightmare. I mean, they beat him. Why, if he doesn't get hurt? You know what else is questionable? The Cincinnati punner, Dino Veslogic. So maybe Satterfield's doing some foredowns from like his own 39. You never know how he does. This could be wild at about 11 p.m. on Saturday night. So, uh, but no, I'm not going to have to eat. We'll be head to head on the Twitter machine. Fafiida's going to sit back untouched and just absolutely cook. As an underdog in conference games, by the way,

59:53at Louisville and Cincinnati, Satterfield, 12, 23 and 2 against the spread, 34% oh and six when catching a touchdown or more. So, new day. I didn't mention this. Missouri. I hear all this shit about Eli can't beat ranked teams. Well, as a conference home dog at Missouri, he's 10 and four against the spread. I don't care if he wins. Just cover. Washington at USC. Washington takes money every week. Yeah, how does it make me? Markets slams them and then they don't even sniff a cover. They're the worst cover margin. They haven't covered again. The worst cover margin in the country. Last week, people were betting them like they knew the final against Minnesota. Lose outright. They would have just seen things against Utah State almost lost out. Right. And now they're betting them again. Whoever this group is that loves Washington. I don't know what they're seeing. They're so young. They have no backs left so they can't run the ball. There's no Denzel Boston. What is there to like about this team? Well, they, okay, you know what the highlights are? What are the high? Because I wrote this up for action too. Do you know what the highlights are?

1:00:54Is Demon Williams having an offensive line that can't block form and then he scrambles and goes crazy and throws 40 yards down the field? Busted play offense. That's what this is. I mean, they have no one game without William Scramble. Brian, you're going to like get stringed back. Look, if you want to look, our sponsor is the only only one on the entire board that has this game at eight and a half. So if you want to put it down as an agree, that's fine. Because I don't, I don't understand this move back. I wish I wouldn't have been at a nine. But whatever. I mean, this happens every week with Washington. I don't know what's going on. Brian Bonner and Trey Cooley average less than two yards after first contact. They get touched. They go down Washington. No, Denzel Boston. There's injuries at Watters. The team is so young. They were lying on so many true freshmen. So like that's a wash with USC in that department. Listen to this defense. Let me listen to the Washington defense. They're 44th and quality drives. So what that means is other teams are allowed to create methodicals, right? Move the chains.

1:01:55Maybe 10 yards per 10 plays per drive. Look at the offenses that have created this rank of 44th and quality drives. Minnesota, Eastern Washington, Utah, state, and was it? Those teams have been creating quality drives. Yeah, and they play a ton of man. You don't want to play man against the man. Just USC offense. So I'm not going to put it on the board because you know why? You know why I haven't bet it. We might get seven. Someone out there, some blind man with a ton of money who just listens to the broadcast and here's the man who names. The job. Loves Washington. Yes, it's a member of the Microsoft family. Somebody up there in Bellevue or Seattle is laying into this. I don't know who. It's crazy every weekend. And they're the worst. They're the worst. They have been the worst team in the entire country. The lowest carbon margin and they get that every single week into oblivion. I didn't put it in the right. But I did also bet USC team total over 34 and a half.

1:02:56So don't mind that. UNC against Notre Dame. Greater. Notre Dame has taken some money. UNC coming off of a buy here. This will be an early kick. Notre Dame is now out to what? A 22 and a half point favorite. There's 47s, 47 and a halfs out there. I played the under. Yeah, it has to be like. I don't know how North Carolina scores. They're not going to be able to pass protect. The Notre Dame is the best defense in the country. Billy Edwards can't play under pressure. Notre Dame still can't run the ball, which is how you want to attack North Carolina. North Carolina's past defense has been good and they have a good pass rush. So I think they can create enough negative plays. This isn't an explosive passing attack for Notre Dame. The unders keep getting screwed in Notre Dame games in the last 30 seconds every week. But I'm going to trust Bella check. The Bella checks with two weeks to prepare against a one-dimensional offense to come up with a game plan

1:03:58to condense this game. Limit Notre Dame's passing creates some fuel balls. And I just don't know how UNC is going to move the ball or block Notre Dame or get open against the secondary. I know Patrino he can cook some things up. But guess what? Patrino with a much more talented offense. Last year the one team that they couldn't do anything against was Notre Dame. So this has like, this could be, this has like 27-6 written all over it. Give me the under. Definitely the under. There's a 50% chance of rain the entire game. This could be wet a little bit of wind coming in. I project this. There's like three pick sixes and I'll be get screwed. Well, I don't even know if they're going to throw the ball. But this rushing attack, like the only thing I heard about Nolan James was give him time, give him time. He just needs to wrap. He's going to be elite. Like we just we're just coming off to Darian Price in Jermaya. Don't set the bar. Like he's only 3.5 yards after first contact. He's pretty average for FPS running backs.

1:05:00He could use a little bit more elusiveness. It's not there. And in me, it's Williams is just what he's always been every year. He's subpar and elusiveness in yards after first contact. So this Notre Dame rushing attack, it's just inside the top 40, but it's not great. When you go into North Carolina side, though, I mean, Benjamin Hall has been a lot better. He's had five explosives already. The UNC's by by the way had a much tougher strength schedule so far. If you look at their numbers, the heels are fifth in line yards and tenth in rushing success rate. Like they they're moving piles in the in the trench on offense. But they are running into a very elite defense that's extremely elite in the elite in the red zone this year. Anybody that's tried to get a descoring opportunity against Notre Dame is pretty much failed by all means. So lean the under no matter what, but the rain is going to play a part where there's no throwing in this game I think at all. Yeah. And Bell check it's he's real conservative. He's too conservative at this point in a lot of ways. Except when he built Bell check you Omi this under.

1:06:01I had the team total under of Wake Forest last year. When Bell check called the timeouts down like 14 with 20 seconds left. And then they went four to four down. So I'm still not over that law. That was ridiculous. Yeah, give me the under there. Kami Wilson special. Nathan Air Force. Got him there. I'm very clear this year who I think is one of the commander in Chief Trophy. So I actually thought about playing it over here. I did. I am too. It's right here in my notes. I want the over. Yeah. Navy can't defend the past Air Force can't defend the run. There's going to be more explosives in this game than you're used to. This isn't an older your older brother's service academy game. I made it three lean over. Yeah, I completely agree on everything. Massive, massive advantages to each offense's line yards, stuff for eight,

1:07:01quality drives, finishing drives like every the ground game should work for both. The methodical should work for both. And the scoring position should turn into touchdowns for both. So yeah, I've got it in my notes right here. I'm going to be on this service academy over. Nothing. No one loves the service academy over more than Kami Wilson. Auburn at Tennessee. Tennessee is a seven point favorite. This is a fascinating game. And by the I'm out on the Auburn offense, the Byron Brown goalish against power for defenses like. It's not finished. The last week was the spot against Vandy. They just they can't score. They just never look at the Baylor game, the Vandy game. They look at I don't care about the Florida game. They added like a bunch of points late. It's just not working. And mainly it's because the offensive line. They can't block anyone. This total is super fascinating. A 54. I know some really sharp total batters that are on the over. Part of that numbers, numbers wise, I can see why you're going to like the over because this is the this is the

1:08:03pace game. If you just look for them in a. The fastest tempo game of the entire weekend is this game. Right. But there are ball-nowers who like the under because you're like, Tennessee, this lost one of their best offensive linemen. Who sees it in the injury. Tennessee couldn't block last week. Are they going to be able to block? Auburn can't block anyone. We saw Tennessee's defensive line who did the Texas. So like, are you even going to be able to get the drive started to get the tempo going? And are both defensive lines going to just be so dominant that neither offense. It's just going to be inefficient. So I love the pull and pull that. I tend to think the latter would love a 55 because you are just going to get a ton of possessions in this game. But I actually lean under. I'm spot on the number. Brandon still is struggling. He's holding onto the ball forever in a day. So like he's not really seeing it. So like it's not all in the Tennessee offensive line. And I will say the Auburn edge rushes. No, we're close to what it was last year. So did this one look like this one look as bad as it did versus Texas.

1:09:03So slightly in the Tennessee would like under a seven. And I slightly into the under just because I think both offensive lines could be in trouble. Brandon is still inefficient at times. But would like a 55. You see anything there? The Tennessee offensive line injuries with Windle Mo being out. And then the other guard he plays guard left guard right guard. The other left guard right guard combination. Shamarad Umarov showed up as questionable on the availability report last night. So I'm having a hard time seeing to Sean Bishop line up and what is a wide split offensive line. And all Tennessee runs his inside zone. And the key part of that inside zone is the guard position. And both of them could be, you know, we could have backups at both positions. So that is something I definitely cannot get in. That's why it's like I don't under I project the total at 53 on the dot. So it's like if this gets to 55 and I understand pushing it because these teams are 21 and 25 seconds per play.

1:10:03There's some there's some issues for this Tennessee offensive line. It makes me think they're not going to be able to do much. And you know, Brandon had three turnover worthy plays against Texas through the air. Is he going to be able to dominate Auburn through the air? I'm not real sure. And then you're right. Byron Brown is going to take on Jim Knowles. I don't see that working out well for Auburn either. So I think if this gets to 55, I think the under is the play. But I would keep an eye on Tennessee's offensive line injuries. I just I cannot back them running inside zone with the Sean Bishop. If guards both guards have backups. And Auburn just kept lock anyone in the SEC. Like no, just the way it is. BYU at TCU. BYU 6 to 6 and a half point favor. I played TCU. I think this line's too high. Dwyer's back. I think this new offense will continue to get better. We're buying TCU low at home. Dykes have been very good as a home dog in his career. I'm still not sold on this BYU team. They played one confident opponent. And they would have lost if Bridgerton doesn't get hurt.

1:11:04And they got a 4th down stop by one blade of grass. Where they probably lose that game. I like the TCU run defense. I still don't trust the BYU passing attack. The luck has to run out eventually. Give me the frogs at home. They win outright. I mean, I mean, I'm a good example. Man, well, I love both these teams. I don't know why I'm like taking offense to BYU. Telling me my playoff, one of my I think BYU's going to play off. I don't lose here. It would help my TCU futures for the big 12. So it's tough game for me to, you know, from a futures perspective. But then again, like, there's just a really big tag. There's a couple of things in the numbers that really point TCU. There's a big tackling edge from a defensive standpoint. Like BYU's 120 second. Like they get it done in a lot of places, but they're not getting it done there. Plus, Jayden Craig, his numbers really aren't that bad. 10 big time throws, six turn of worthy plays. He has settled in since they have gotten back from their overseas trip to open up the season. TCU's defense has been really stout against the run.

1:12:06Top 20 in success rate. EPA allowed. That's what you need against BYU. I mean, my issue with this is our sponsor, draft Kings, has moved this number up to, I make it four and a half. They moved it up to six and a half for us to board six. I don't mind waiting to see if it seven pops. Like maybe there's some steam on game day. I don't know. But the number's not moving. You know, when it's when it's trucking one way, why not wait and see if I can get a better number. So that's kind of where I'm at with this game. I got impatient and played it. There was some indicator you get down and like, like you and I with USC, we got two impatient. Now there's an eight and a half on the board. Yeah, I practice patients there. By the way, Andrew Gentier, I think is a big loss. They're starting right tackle who's out. They're going to be pretty inexperienced at tackle now. That's important on the road. So yeah, I like TCU. I think this should be like four. And then getting Dwyer back is so important for this offense. They're finally healthy receiver. They can hit some deep shots. Their run defense is good enough. I think it's a good matchup. I think it's going to be close throughout. For what it's worth, Dykes, 15 and seven against the spread at TCU in home games,

1:13:07covering by five points per game. Two and a half against the spread as a home pup with an average cover margin of 24 points in those two games. Tiny sample, but TCU has been very good. And by the way, little narrative street TCU gotten barrisped at BYU last year. I'm sure they've had this game circle. I like home teams, home dogs, playing a team that embarrassed them on the road the previous year, especially when I show value in the number. So I think you get the best effort from TCU here. But yeah, do it be like home practice and patience where I didn't. All right, for we move on to some trash, BetSync is back in the action happen. It's better than ever. Now you can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sportsbooks and prediction markets all in one place. Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear in action as soon as you place them, no manual tracking required. From there, follow all of your action with live win probability in game alerts and bet analysis throughout the game. It's the best game day experience in the industry.

1:14:09Just open the action app, head to my accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're ready to roll. Download the action app and connect with BetSync for free today. The big bets on campus podcasts is presented by DraftKings and we've got a great new offer for our listeners. Whether you're watching rivalry games, top 25 matchups or cheering on your alma mater every Saturday, DraftKings is now available in all 50 states. From New York to California, no matter where you are, you can stay connected in one app. If you're new to DraftKings, sign up with code BBOC. Spend $5 and get 150 in total rewards. That's code BBOC. Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep college football at your fingertips all season long. DraftKings, the crown is yours. By the way, quick rundown of Cubi injuries, ball state, Buffalo, Miami-Vohaya, Miami-Vohaya BG, two former D2 quarterbacks going on. Miami-Vohaya is now down to their third string. Ohio, Louisville. We'll get to that later. Virginia, for Buele's going to play, but hearing his little banged up,

1:15:10Vandy mentioned, O.D.U. Not sure I don't think Henrikle's going to go again. Colorado State, Haney, don't know his status yet. Let's get to some trash. What's that smell? It stinks. What do you mean? Distress. The sweet sweet trash. The trash is a goldmine. Goldmine. All right, first, Marshall. This number's gotten out to 19 and a half. I'm still waiting. Like, I think it's going to get the 20. That's outrageous. Marshall's been so bad, so, so bad. But now they're in conference play. JMU has beat San Diego State who's been awful. Liberty, you should have won that game without a botch call. And they played O.D.U. with a backup quarterback. Like, they haven't done that anyway. I know they've been good and they're good, but this number's getting out of control for JMU. Smaller, smaller trash, because we were, backing Marshall right now is dicey. And the main fade of JMU is coming next week at Gatta. So, I'm playing a little Marshall.

1:16:10Now, this line now that it's blown through 17 and we're approaching 20, I will be on a little bit of Marshall. This is why it pays to have the action app. And to read my early pick in the week, I wrote this up on Sunday night. So, JMU 15 and a half. There's no way I would have played it. Above 18. So, yeah, just let that thing run and see where you end up. Let me do a small shout out, though, for my trash that matches this. Buffalo opens 16 and a half against Western Michigan. I said, that's egregious. The number should be eight. So, that's my trash contribution, but it matches your Marshall, right? Like, the number is just way out of control and keeps going down. So, yeah, that definitely was too high. Maryland plus 15 at Nebraska. Nebraska's been good, but they might be down a couple of their best skill position players. They're riding high. Guess what they have on deck? Indiana comes to town. Little bit of a flat spot. Maryland has been atrocious, but they get away from home. Mainly, so, this is a good, bilo cell high spot in a look ahead spot for Nebraska.

1:17:15Mainly, this number's too high. Like, yep, this can't be above two touchdowns. Just from power. Now, maybe Maryland is quits unlocksly, but I can't get to this number. And it's a bad spot for Nebraska. I know Maryland can't run the ball, which is an ideal, but this number's too high. Good spot. I agree. I make it 10. Put it on the board. What number are we putting on the board? 14 and a half. Yeah, not as well. I make it 10. Maryland on the board. Gross. Colorado. Call it 13. Out there. I start my feelings. I said this before the pod before we hit the record button. So, you know my feelings here. Yeah, they're going to start Wilson at quarterback. Zach Wilson's little brother. He actually was not afraid to throw the ball last week. I mean, his A dot is 25% higher than Juju Lewis, who Juju Lewis had no confidence. He couldn't throw the ball down field. Everything was behind the line of scrimmage. It was horrible. They have talent at receiver. I don't know. I like their defensive line, but this is mainly a Texas tech.

1:18:16Fade. This team is a, the market hasn't adjusted. Like, they should have lost a Houston. Yep. They were, they were a couple calls and plays away from losing to Oregon state. They also don't travel well under Joey McGuire. Now going to altitude. Will Hammond has been a trotious. I mean, look at when he's kept clean, he has two big time throws and seven turn turn turn of worthy plays. When he's kept clean and in Juju Lee and Lewis, if you remove the weaver game, zero big time throws seven turn of worthy plays. Oh, just afraid out there. So, I think Wilson's going to be an upgrade. And this tech defense way down from last year, especially on the defensive line and now the set. Like, they are just way worse because the defensive line losses. Hammond is way worse. And this team, the, the, the priors are still propping them up. Yeah, they covered the clothes. They finally covered. They weren't even sniffing covers. They finally covered the clothes that got bet down five points from open against Sam Houston state. All it took was two picks, sixes and a Castellano's heave on third and goal from the 30 to cover that number against Sam Houston.

1:19:18Colorado, different team at home. Much better as a dog under Dion. For what it's worth, they're 18 and 10 against the spread as a home dog of over a touchdown since 2005 that's 64.3%. Dion, three and all in that spot, covering by 10 points per game on average. Give me the buffs. I'm not sure if anybody's betting SP plus blindly, but I'm going head to head with SP plus. I make this game eight. I think Colorado could win this game outright. I agree. I really think they can win this game outright. SP plus makes this 21. That's crazy. Even me or Billers. People are not downgraded. Texas teching off. I mean, what do we do here? That's a huge discrepancy. So we'll find out, but it's Colorado from the other way. Yeah, I mean, Isaac Wilson, I think it's going to be an upgrade. He's going to be a little more risky, but I like that with this offense. I think they'll be able to run the ball a little bit. Just throw with the Joseph Williams aton. Farrakhan, I think, is coming on to help because what's his name is is still out with an injury.

1:20:19Skidero, but they have talent and Texas techs, a little banged up, traveling here to altitude. This is like a all-out effort Colorado spot. That was a good Colorado on the board. Yeah, absolutely. Temple. I'm waiting on a seven. I'm being patient here, but a temple plus six and have to be fine if it doesn't get there. South Florida stinks people. I keep trying to tell everyone. They should have lost the FIU that got dominated. Then they needed a miraculous comeback. They only had 14 points with two minutes to go against the Army. Army gets one first down. They lose that game and said they went on the go route on four down in the last play of the game. They weren't losing in the fourth quarter to bowling green and they had no points. Temple, huge coaching. I mean, Keeler has who's been great as a dog. Keeler has two national titles with two different teams and Heartline has five games under his belt. Most of them have been underwhelming. Keeler should have been coached the year last year. Keeler should have been coached the year last year. Explain to me how Brian Heartline is coaching a team. It's a 133rd and pass EPA. Team Stamps.

1:21:19How is that even possible? Temple outright. But I'm waiting on seven. And then finally, LaTek. Off of by extra time to prepare for Army. Tough spot for Army. Tough trip. The Army defense. Not a fan of. They got very fortunate to beat Temple. You know the little thing here. Little tiny thing. A couple of years ago. Two years ago. Army destroyed LaTek in a bowl game. And it was a bowl game that LaTek took it the last second. Remember Army was trying to find an opponent. Yeah. Because someone dropped out. Well, you know, took that bowl game. It was Louisiana Tech. And they got destroyed in that game. Because they played nothing but backups. And most of the backups. And it was who played for the first time that season on their defense. You go back. You go down the roster and look at the action that they played in 2024. They're only action for a lot of their stars that game was that bowl game. So they got the prep. A lot of these guys who didn't play all the year got the prep and play against this Army offense. And now you have an extra week to prep

1:22:21and get ready for this Army offense. I think Blake Baker will be back a quarterback as well. Good spot. Give me LaTek. I made my feelings about Army very clear months ago. And by the way, LaTek is fifth in line defensive line yards. And they have a strength. They have a strength schedule of seven. And they're probably getting their best defensive line back from injury too. Done. On the board. On the board. Kamie Wilson special. I mean, just seeing the action app. Did you see in the action app? I put this bet in and the comment. It says, it says, Kamie Wilson shit. Gotta go for trash. Summary is Marshall Small. Maryland, Colorado, Temple, and Kamie Wilson shit. All right. We'll talk to you in a safe football and just moments. We have that coming up. Mm-hmm. Colin first has to talk. Arkansas. Woo! Pigs. Sui. Absolutely. Deltified. Deltified. I don't know how we win a game the rest of the year. Just follow the program up. Give us a death sentence.

1:23:22Colin's talking razor back football. Colin talking razor back. I can tell you. Highlight 13 and a half. I think this is the spot. Like, Texas A&M. They've been buried. Written off. I hope Graver plays a wide receiver. But re- They can't run the ball, but they'll be able to run the ball here. Run, read into the ground. Like, Arkansas can't defend mobile quarterbacks. This is the spot where Texas A&M flexes their muscle. They've just been embarrassed. I trust Alco to get them up. I laid 13 and a half when this crossed down below 14. Arkansas is getting some support in the market. Look, what do you say? Well, look, Tulsa. I don't know how to explain that game. Arkansas finally. They were playing with their backup and they had like a tragedy. They were playing their backup. There was a team tragedy. Their minds were on their coach who wasn't there with them. Well, there's there's a lot going on here with that game. And I don't think that everything. There's so much that Arkansas has not resolved. Also, there's a 40% chance of rain. 10 mile an hour winds in here. And our kicking is shaky.

1:24:22Anyways, we are deadlass in Rushy PA. If this game comes down to where there's rain and KJ Jackson still has an average depth of target less than eight yards and somehow has more turnover worthy plays in big time throws and you're not even throwing it down the field. But if this game somehow turns into a run fest, Arkansas's deadlass in Rushy PA. Like, what how are you scoring? How are you creating the thought of getting the scoring position with that? The defense is what saved them against the Golden Hurricanes and Dexter Williams. But the defense is 135th and finishing drives. It's actually a very strong point of Texas A&M's offense is what they're able to do in the red zone. And I will say this, there are fundamentals where Elko is killing Silverfield. Texas A&M is 10th and 3rd down conversions. There's 7th and penalties. Way more disciplined. Way more organized. You can say what you want about not having the explosiveness without KC Concepts. You own kind of run game. Marcel Readin is decision making. But the fundamentals of what a coach can put on a team which is 3rd downs and penalties,

1:25:23that's still there with Elko. So check the forecast because if this rises more than 40% chance of rain, I don't see how Arkansas has many trips past the 50 yard line. Yeah, I mean, I just think look, you need to be able to run. Texas A&M needs to be able to run the ball for Reed to throw the ball, flexion. Because of the state of their offensive line, they're not able to run on most teams in the SEC. I think they will be able to run it on Arkansas. They want to get out flex a little bit after they've just been buried in the media. I think they put it on Arkansas. There's just cover Chris Marshall. There's just cover Chris Marshall. And there's another thing too. And it's someone notes I'm sorry I didn't say it. But Chris Marshall has 40 targets. The next target share goes to CJ Brown at 15 and Thai Lockwood at 19. Are you kidding me? Marshall has 40 targets. If all you have to do is shut down Chris Marshall, KJ Jackson has no clue where he's going. It's pretty insane. Hi, before we get out of here, let's go.

1:26:23Three and out. Let's hear it, gentlemen. Clear eyes, full hearts. Hey, let's go flex some football. Let's start with some Friday night lights. It's got some good ones. Vatek, Franklin, versus Narduzzi. I don't really like each other. Right? No, I don't think so. These are two guys that are a bit, you know. I mean, I met them both personally, like off camera, off record. Like they're... They're both a bit eccentric. It's interesting to be around. Vatek, hitstaking real money. I know some real sharp groups that were on pit. This number's crossed below the three. Total up to 55. At some places, 54 and a half at DraftKings. I mean, over has taken some money. I like pit. There's a lot of variance with Mason Heinshel. Who like... You could get 17, he's just seven different receivers. And then you could get... Yeah, but like, and again, when he steps up in class, it doesn't go as well. Vatek's past rush and havoc creation, I think, is real. But the Maryland game didn't age as well. They played BC in a... Just a monsoon. Like there was nothing any offense could do.

1:27:24But pits often, it hasn't looked great when they were stuck in class. But also, they played UCF in a storm where neither offense could do anything. Can Heinshel not make mistakes and use his legs to escape some of the pressure that Vatek's gonna have? Maybe. There's some variance there. But I like to match it for the pit defense. Grunk Myers has been good, but he's not throwing it deep. You need to throw it deep on the outside to beat the Narduzi quarters defense. They're gonna leave their corners on islands, a lot. They're not doing that. Reynolds has been incredible for them. They're tight-end. But pits personnel matches up really well against tight-end. So I like some of the matchup factors for pit. Blacksburg's gonna be electric. But I'm kind of leading pit money line here. I think they actually get it done on the field. I feel like you have to go under in this game. Virginia Tech's defense is number one in stuff rate, number one in line yards. Pit's defense is number two in stuff rate, number two in line yards in the country. These two defenses don't let anybody run against them so far. You could argue who if they played, I get all of that. But to be ranked number one and two, both these defenses.

1:28:24You could never have the top pit. To be fair. Yeah. Yeah. Like the past. Virginia Tech's offensive line too. There's some, there's injuries on the availability report. I mean, it looks like Montavia is coming in the right guard. He missed Odeaue. He's listed as probable. Brody Meadows started at right guard versus BC. Now he's questionable. Justin Terry's out again. There's, I know, I think there's a rotation of eight and nine guys for Franklin there, but still there, there's enough there and what the defense is. I think under his deploy liberty Delaware. I mean, that's Minikuchi like if he's out, I think he's going to be out. What's the problem? Like is that the whole deal? Why is this not taken off the way that I thought it would? Like I bet it's six and a half early in the week because we knew Minikuchi with his knee limped off the field. Yeah, I think it's out here. And Ryan Cardi, we don't discuss injuries and depth charts around here. It's exactly what his quote was for Delaware. Like we don't discuss it. And Brainskaters. What do you have Minikuchi to Streeter? It's I get it's got to be eight points. Got to be eight points.

1:29:25No, can't be that high. He's not. Let me say. Streeter is. I might have to update. He went. Streeter went two of 16 for nine yards last week. Streeter couldn't win the Arkansas job. I wouldn't go that far. I might need to update this after like I might it might be worse because this is like my preseason. Four points. So like I had this liberty minus one and a half before. So I mean, maybe it should be like four and a half five. So I mean, I with the adjustment, I'm at like seven or six and a half actually. So. But it might just be way worse than I think. Like so I'm staying away. Penn State, Northwestern, Penn State, open three and a half came down the two and a half a little bit of buyback on Penn State, total 45 and a half Northwestern has been explosive on offense. Chip Kelly, Aiden Child's marriage is working wonderfully. You know what marriage was also working wonderfully? Kobe Howard and Rocco back Kobe Howard gets hurt and we saw what happened to the Penn State offense just not the same without him Northwestern opening up their new stadium.

1:30:26By the way, I win. Is wind not going to be an issue now? Right? Like not mission. So I wrote here North. I had like two full I had two full paragraphs. The field is 21 feet below sea level. And then the outside of the structure is. It's very open sort of like so-fi sort of like hard rock stadium so that when the wind blows in, it bleeds through that deck right there through that because it's like an open-ended field. I'm sorry it's an open-ended entrance and then the field is 21 feet below sea level which means the wind circulates and actually when it tries to blow through the stadium it all bleeds in real slowly. And so apparently when you see 20 mile an hour wind gusts, it ain't going to mean anything. And this is exactly the way you and I treat hard rock stadium because in Miami those winds start whipping but you get in there. It doesn't matter if it's a dolphins game or a canes game. You look at those flags on the top of the field go post. They're not moving because it's the exact same thing. They got that lid on the top of it and nothing gets into that little roof and swirls around. Yeah and there's first is projected wind that's always a Chicago.

1:31:29I think it's going to matter. Yeah. Old friend car no-one out there. But Penn State offense might be hard to trust without Howard. Old friend Timmy Kay is on the field tonight tomorrow so I'll get an update on the- How does the wind do- what happens when you throw a piece of grass around as it doesn't fly? My piece of hidden value in Northwestern overs early because of that. Yeah. I like over, by the way I did bet over 45 when I got down to that. My finger has been on top of Northwestern plus 3 but I just, ugh. You can't fade your beloved in any lines. I know. I don't mind- I'm addicted to them. Moving on to second-owner favor. Overdog. Favorite favor. It's called the Overdog Paralyte. I'm going to go with SMU, laying 21. I think they better even see. BC has been souped- their rating has been propped up because they played Rutgers back up quarterback and while Rutgers turned the ball over six times in BC territory and then they

1:32:29played Vatak in a typhoon where I mean like no one could move the ball four feet. So like their defense is bad. SMU is going to shred them. There's going to be no pressure. And then look, while you're going to do a spy, Mason McKenzie, that's the only offense BC has. Well, SMU's already played. Hashton Daniels, Lincoln Keenhalts, and SMU is the only other end of the spectrum compared to BC. They were super unlucky versus Florida State. They should have won that game by 30. They were unlucky against Louisville. They were unlucky against Missouri State. I mean, they, Missouri State should have covered, but let me ask SMU outgain them by 350 yards. We're turning it over. There was fumbles and misfeel goals turned over and down. So their rating is, I think, is a little bit depressed. I think SMU buries them here. Give me the Mustang. So you got... Yeah, I mean, it's, we didn't do nowhere fast this way because it's Texas State. The San Diego State Defense cannot defend running against any team. Texas State's Torrance Burgess is smoking defenses. One of the highest elusive misgrades in PFF.

1:33:31Quarterback Brad Jackson is leads a pass offense. It's 14th in EPA. And this San Diego State offense is bottom 10. Success rate, near deadlash and creating methodicals. Things are going opposite direction every single way for Sean Lewis there for Aztec fast. And, you know, it doesn't matter who's healthy for this game or who might be injured, who's playing. There's a reason this Texas State line has taken off so much. Not sure what's going to stop. Yeah, the mumps. Right. So, um, the case of the, I wish we could get an availability report on San Diego State and the mumps. Yeah, it might end up being way worse. So like, I can see this number just blowing through 10 eventually. Yep. Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline Parlay. Let's move on to our underdog Moneyline Parlay for week five, presented by DraftKings. Colin, where are you going? I'll let you go first.

1:34:32I'm going to go with NC State. Look, I think the world is treating them from a gambling perspective as if that Vanderbilt loss should have taken their power rating down. I believe they were like their post game win expectancy was near flawless. It was just that one mistake that CJ Bailey made. So, you know, there are advantages here for NC State in this game. And I don't think they're being treated that way in the market. So they're like three and a half point dog, but let's take them out. Right. Also, little variance, central variance here, which is what you want. The Moneyline dog. I don't think we can gain all this gameplay. Yeah. All right. Yeah. You're going NC State. I'm going Mississippi State first half. Talked about that game earlier. I think there's some variance early. How about I'm just had some weird start. So, Mississippi State first half, Moneyline and NC State Moneyline. Pays a little better than five to one at DraftKings. And don't forget the download of the DraftKings sports app today. And use promo code BBOC when you sign up for a great offer. DraftKings, the crown is yours. Recap the board. We got trash Marshall Maryland Colorado Temple Plotek.

1:35:35Head to head late night, last game of the night. Arizona Cincinnati. Agrees. Ohio State. 14 or better. Georgia. Under 51 and a half. Maryland plus 14 and a half. Colorado plus 13 and a half. And the Commie Wilson Special. Louisiana Tech Plus Tiv. That'll do it for us. Make sure you check out the six gear. Freeze and duck. They do a great job. The episode's already out. We'll be back 10, 30 AM Eastern on Saturday. Go through some games we didn't even talk about. Update it thoughts. That's that's put together our life of a good time. We'll be back with a recap show on Sunday, 9, 5, 9, bad B. Don't forget to call. Thanks to Colin for joining me. Thanks to our producer David on the back end. Best of the business. Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe. And subscribe to our channel for Intel and Enemy. Good luck this weekend. Let's stay hot. Catch you all later, cheers. Peace out.

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