Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023 (03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession (05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points (10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late" (12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market (15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn" (16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed (20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We? (23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed (25:59) VanEck Ad (26:46) Labor Market (29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret (36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer (40:27) The Housing Market (41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again (49:35) Neutral Policy Rate (55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.