Cincinnati Reds Stats SHOW Nick Krall’s PLAN is Failing

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. The facts dispute any notion of keeping things the same at the front offices of Great American Ballpark. You are Lockdown Reds. You're daily Cincinnati Reds Podcasts, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hi, hello and welcome. My name is Jeff Carr, his name is Steve Offenbaker, and today's episode is brought to you by Game Time, download the Game Time app, create an account, and use the code Lockdown for $20. Off your first purchase, a little bit later on in today's show, we'll tell you where some of the Reds pitchers will likely be vacationing this off season since they must be spending more time planning that than actually pitching.

1:01And just a few minutes, we'll tell you where the evidence proves Ellie De La Cruz is a superstar. But we'll again, with the objective case against Nick Crawl, because the facts speak for themselves, Steve. Nick Crawl is not good at leading the Reds baseball operations. No, I think there's been enough of a sample size. We might have to check with Tito if this is enough of a sample size yet, but hard to give up on a guy, right? Yeah, don't want to give up on a quality guy like Nick Crawl. No, it's been bad. You look at what this team has done during his era. We've talked about this before, but you've pulled together some good numbers that support really what we've been saying, which is that everything that Nick Crawl has touched during his time as the headman in charge has gotten worse than where it was when he took over. Dick Williams had done some things and started to build some things.

2:05And we probably should have recognized at the time when he decided it was a better option to go make Coneys than it was to stick around and see this ball club through. But something was afoot. We didn't ping on it enough. I don't think and here's where we landed. And Nick Crawl has done his level best to just undo it all. No, during his tenure, the Reds are 457 and 503. So 457 wins 503 losses during his tenure. And he might say, well, he was told to sell off some parts and dump, rost or dump money at the beginning of his tenure. Fine, that's fine. Let's look at 2023 to now. Well, we'll kind of call it the Ellie era as it were because Nick Crawl has set a couple of different things. Nick Crawl wants this team to be a run prevention first ball club. He also said that when it comes to the lineup, he's prioritizing guys who hit line drives, guys who make more contact and guys who hit the ball the other way.

3:05All right, let's break that down because when it comes to prioritizing run prevention sleeve since 2023, the Reds are 17th. And this is like 2023 all the way through. So taking a look at all of these seasons into one in major league baseball, the Reds have the 17th best ERA at 4.41. Now, we've had some good pitchers in this time. The pitching staff has not been bad, but they've been bottom half of the league in the R.A. Everything else gets a little bit worse. You know, strikeouts for nine. Also 17th, eight and a half strikeouts for nine. Walks for nine, 25th in major league baseball for the last four seasons. And then when you get into the field inside of things, boy, it gets bad. Defensive runs saved, which is a statistic that fans have likes to use for fielding. The Reds are 28th with negative 171. And then out's above average, which some people say, well, I like out's above average, more than I like defensive runs.

4:06The Reds are 24th with negative 29th. They're bad at the whole run prevention thing, Steve. So run prevention, no defensive improvement, no. Hitters are making good contact. Nope. Hitters are getting on base. Nope. So every one of those stated goals, the Reds have failed to achieve. If you just look at what Nick Cross said, he was trying to build the roster that he was trying to put together, the things that he looked in a camera and very badly, very inarticulately, told us that he was going to do, he didn't do it. Yeah, we are grading him based on his criteria and the actual statistics. This is not our opinion of the matter. And this is not us channeling national standards when it comes to how good a baseball team can be. This is literally what he said he wants to build with this ball club.

5:08So run prevention, let's talk about the lineup because he likes line drives, contact rate hitting it the other way. Well, they've actually been pretty good at hit line drives. Sixth in major league baseball in line drive percentage. Don't look at any other part of this because they're 23rd in contact, right? They're 26th in hitting the ball to the opposite field. The percentage of balls that they hit to the opposite field, which has all led to an offense, a lineup that is 24th and wins above replacement, 25th and batting average, 20th and on base percentage and 20th and slugging. So Steve, they don't prevent runs and they don't score runs. So there, I don't even know that they're mediocre. I think they're just bad during his tenure. They are. And the number, the the stat there that sometimes I know that every day or is like, you guys in your numbers, all these numbers tell a story and they tell a story without opinion. I said this to somebody in the comment section last week.

6:09Like the stats are there for you to look at. This is not opinion. This is the fact. This is if as it were, this is the back of Nick Crawl's baseball card. God help us if they make a Nick Crawl baseball card. This would be the back of that picture of him in the break room. Kind of looking at with the with the kitchen behind him because that's the only thing Reds executives know how to do is stand with a kitchen behind them. But here's the one stat. If the every dayers are going to take away one stat of all the things that you just said, it's the wins above replacement. The Reds are 24th in war during Nick Crawl's tenure. So that takes into account all of the statistics for all of the players and waits them by their defensive position. So it looks at every single thing that Nick Crawl said was going to be important for this team to do and accomplish and overachieve at. It looks at all of that and they are 24th in baseball during that time for wins above replacement. Nick Crawl has failed and the numbers are right there to support it.

7:09And I once said that I thought this team was going in the right direction under Nick Crawl. And I've been proven completely wrong with that because I've seen some folks like call that out and say, well, you used to say this, you're right. I did. And I've been wrong. And I'm completely wrong about thinking that Nick Crawl was going in the right direction and that he was taking the team in the right direction. It's gone in the wrong direction. And to be honest with you, I kind of wonder a little bit about what the future holds because we are also talking about a guy, okay, past production and all this other stuff share. Can he build a roster in the coming years that fixes all of that? Well, I actually went back through and I looked at every trade that he has made a little bit of help of AI, I promise, but I double checked it. But I looked at every trade that Nick Crawl has made. It has amounted Steve to 12.4 war in his entire tenure, positive 12 war.

8:09And when you consider some of those deals have gone horribly wrong and add in some of the free agent deals that he has made like Jamer Candelario, the 45 million that they gave to him, they traded for key Brian Hayes and Mike Minor, ridiculously bad deals. Those do you, let me just tell you about the ridiculousness of the Mike Minor deal for a minute. Three days before they made that trade, they traded away Sonny Gray for Chase Petty and a clear salary dump move. Sonny Gray was set to make a little over $11 million in the next season before he was traded or after he ended up being traded in Minnesota. They acquired $11 million and Mike Minor from the Kansas City Royale. It was much worse picture. And that's just a ridiculous thing to me. And then the key Brian Hayes thinks Steve, they've already paid key Brian Hayes, $9 million, a little over $9 million.

9:10If they were to cut him today, they would have to cut him a check for $29 million because of multiple guaranteed seasons and a team option season in which his buyout is still $6 million. Do you think when Nick Craw called the Pittsburgh pirates and said, yeah, I want to talk about acquiring key Brian Hayes. Do you think that the guys in the room over there, their general manager had to mute the phone and tell everybody, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, don't jinx it, don't jinx it. And then he turns it back the phone back on, I'm sorry, did you say key Brian Hayes? I think we could work something out. While he's shushing everybody in the room. You know when they were preparing for the trade deadline in Pittsburgh, they were like, okay, we have a game plan of teams call about this player, a game plan of teams call about this player and there was probably that guy in the back. Like, what if somebody calls back key Brian? Hey, nobody doing that.

10:11We ain't no no plan for that. No, it's like, shut up, Stanley, go get us some coffee. Yeah, come on, yeah, get out of here. What are you doing in this meeting? And then they ended up training us. I genuinely believe I genuinely believe Pittsburgh was probably stunned when Nick Craw called about key Brian Hayes. I genuinely believe that. We'll never know for sure. But I bet you they were stunned. And I tried to see the positive side of this and our friend Gary over locked on pirates which is like, yeah, you're crazy. You guys, you got good luck. That's all he kept saying, just good luck. Yeah. And I'm like, oh boy, yeah, should he do that? Should he do that? But that's the thing and everybody's just like, well, but how can you get mad at him? He's a yes man for the ownership group. Like they tell him not to spend money, he doesn't spend money. You know, he'll spend money on Milwaukee Brewers, the Tampa Bay race. There are people in the American league right now that are just like, it's almost a four guy in conclusion, Tampa Bay is going to be in the ALCS. Tampa Bay's payroll is way less than the Reds.

11:11Milwaukee's payroll way less. The Cleveland Guardians have a shot to win their division, not just make a playoff as the wild car, but win their division. And their payroll is almost half of what the Reds are. So it's not about how much money they have to spend. It's how they spend that money. And the Reds have never done that well. All right, Jeff, let's try and move on to something a little fun because this front office and ownership group is a constant state of depressing right now. But you know, who is not that is the superstar that is emerging in one Ellie, Taylor groups. Most people do not realize how much of their personal information is being bought and sold every single day. A lot of brokers collect details about you from public records in from the internet, then package that old together and sell it without your consent or knowledge most of the time. That can lead to more spam targeted ads and even scammers getting access to your information.

12:14Aura helps protect your personal information by actively removing your data from data broker sites and keeping it off of those sites. And Aura doesn't stop there. They bring together several layers of digital protection in one app, making it easier to protect your information and your identity. Many of my wife have been getting ready to have a baby and we've been talking about this baby product or that baby product for a little while now. And that's all my social media algorithm is just ads for more baby products. Quite frankly, that's not something I talked about a whole lot until like this past couple of months. So yeah, they're listening. They're getting that information and it's being sold. Start your free trial today over at Aura.com slash aware. Protect yourself now at Aura.com slash aware.

13:21Thanks for being an everyday here at Lockdown Reds. We appreciate you sticking with us in what has been a disappointing season, but we love you guys and we're glad you're here. If you're an everyday, you can elevate that experience and go ad free over in the audio channels. Lockdown podcast.com slash everyday or $5 a month, $50 a year is going to get you an ad free version of Lockdown Reds plus some other goodies along the way as Jeff and I figure out what kind of little goodies we want to throw at you. We'll keep you updated. You can sign up for that. The link is down in the show description. All right, Jeff. As depressing as the first segment was and every day is that are still here with us, we appreciate you and let's talk about something fun because Ellie Day La Cruz has had himself a month. If you watched last night's game rather than say, I don't know, Monday night football, you would have been treated to a home run ball that went approximately five million feet. It was 456 feet. It was out of the ballpark into the street, skipped to the river.

14:24I did this math one time, Jeff, using Google Maps from home plate to the river on the fly. He would have to hit it right down the right field line. That's about 600 feet. He's done that before in double a chat. Nuga, if you recall, he hit a ball that far. If there's ever to be anybody to hit the ball into the river on the fly, it's going to be Ellie. This one came close. It was absolutely destroyed. But everything that we are seeing from him is screaming superstar. And yet, there are still people that want to belabor the errors and belabor the issues that he might crop up with every so often. What you don't realize is everything is saying that he is a superstar. His stats are phenomenal. There are five players, at least going to fangirats, five players, two pitchers, three position players that have a higher war than Ellie De La Cruz does. That's it. And two of those guys on the position side are in the American league.

15:28So like when you look at Ellie De La Cruz, he actually, at least according to war, has a better argument for MVP second place than show heo Tani does. Now nobody cares who the second place get a vocator in MVP is. So it's not like that's a big deal. But I tell you this to say that you've got to understand how good he has been. Let's look at some changes year over year Steve, because last year we know that it was a little bit of a disappointment, kind of had that injury toward the end of the season that really sapped his power. And when you look at his stat cast profile, we always tell folks, you know, red, good, blue, bad, he had a mix in 2025. Yeah, it was okay. It wasn't great. And that's where people started to question, will he ever be a superstar? When you look at this year, this year is all rent for the do that again for the folks at home. Let's see 2025. Now give me back 2026 for the audio folks. Everything just turns as red as red fest buddy.

16:31He is above the 90% balance so many different things. He is at the top of the league and average exit velocity. Top two percent of the league in barrel rate. He is phenomenal at that top 8% in bat speed. Top so many, like so many top five, six, seven percentiles in just about everything that he does. He's gotten so crazy good at this. And one of the big things, one of the catalysts about this, I was thinking about this, he has swung the bat so hard like you can tell, especially on that home run, going as long as it did, you know, stat cast said 456. The point is it went out of the ballpark. That is a long way. You guys swing really hard to do that. On average speed, his swing speed has increased by 1.6 miles brown to put that into perspective to the 12th largest increase from any player this year. And only 11 hitters have a faster average swing speed than does Ellie Day La Cruz.

17:31And it's worked for him on so many occasions. And you just look at his, to simplify it for the people that are going to get into the comment sections today and talk smack about Ellie. Just looking at his season right now, just right now, not we're not going to make it cumulative, we're not going to throw F war and B war and all of the other numbers at you. I'm going to talk to you about his 27 home runs career high. I'm going to talk to you about a slash line of 284 361 514 this season in a season that nobody hits 284. Nobody flirts with 300. And this season Ellie is flirting with 300, the batting average that you all live in die by when you're when you're hating on Ellie's performance. And we're talking about 27 home runs of career high. He's flirting with 30 home runs this year. He might still get there. I think he can do it. I think he has enough time left to hit three more. And if he does, he'll be a 30 30 guy. I think as he crotches in on 30, he's going to pick up his stolen bases too.

18:34He needs five more. I think 30 30. I think if it's on the table, Jeff, he's going to push for 30 30 buddy into the year. There's nothing really else for the root for it. So let Ellie go turn him loose. 30 home runs in a year that he will have played I think 20 less than the maximum. So I think there's 11 games left. So yeah, he'll have 142 games total. And he'll have a shot to 30 home runs. Like thinking about that. That's the other part is that there's so many of these guys that are just killing it right now. They've played so many more games than Ellie has. War is a cumulative stat. War is not a thing that you get by having two good games. You've got to have a good season. And there are only three position players in all of baseball that have a higher war than him. And he has played 20 less games than most of them. And I know you're using crazy for there. But if you look at B war also just because that's Jeff is a F war kind of guy. I'm a B work. Baseball reference.

19:35He leads the team at 5.1. And while there are some differences in the way those two sites calculate things, they both agree that Ellie is the best red with his war. So it's and you're ready to go to go back to other stats that people would probably rather talk about. There are only 18 batters and major league baseball with a better batting average than Ellie Della Cruz has. And there are only he's he's top 30 and on base. And then slugging percentage. He's right up there as well. Like there's so many things that he does well and that he has been elite at that to no longer think that he is a superstar is to just ignore things like his his year over year. Like getting back into some of the advanced metrics of it all his barrel rate has improved at a rate that is better than any other team. If you remember Joey Vato talking about some statistics that he loves he loves to talk about games play because that just talks about your longevity. You got to be good enough to be on the field that long games played as an important stat when it comes to hitting he loves the barrels barrels are super important to Joey

20:39Vato. And nobody has had a better year over your increase than Ellie Della Cruz. In fact, to the point that he is in the top 2% of major league hitters with his barrel rate of 16.2%. This is for real. And this is spectacular. Let me give you one more year over year just because it's fun. Currently as we're talking right now he is 27% better. According to OPS plus this year than he was last year 27%. And that's all the plus is 141. He is 41% better than league average right now and that is a 27% increase year over year. He is doing amazing work out there for a red team that's pretty bad. These are the days we hope for with Ellie Della Cruz which is why it's so frustrating that the team is not doing well and just speaks to the roster building and the reasons why we need to reset the front office just to bring that point back home to remind everybody. Anyway, let's switch gears here again because coming up next we're going to nail down

21:42the off season travel plans for the pitchers that have clearly been prioritizing making those plans. Final home stand of the season means you got to get the game time and get some tickets for Great American ballpark because when I have too many more games left the reds are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs which means these next couple of games are it until whenever next season starts. And quite frankly I'm going to this final 321 Tuesday game thanks to game time because I've got some amazing deals tonight. You can check out your favorite spot in the ballpark game times likely got the kind of deal that you're looking for for tickets to this final home stand because game time makes it so easy. They take the guesswork out of buying tickets you don't have to worry about oh am I going to get some sort of hidden fee or all this tax that gets added on at the end. Download the game time app today use the code locked on to get $20 off your first purchase and get to the ballpark and see these red legs before the season is over again download

22:44the game time app today that promo code is locked on L.O.C.K.E.D. O.N. you'll get $20 off your first purchase download the game time app today. And as we finish out the regular season with a koushi you can trade every single reds game out there including tonight's game where the reds have a 32% chance to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers at all. Yeah the market. It ain't love with the reds right now but hey if you want to take advantage of an inefficiency and you put $100 on the reds to get that dub tonight then your payout will be $305. Download koushi today and use code locked on to get $25 when you trade $25 KALSHI. Koushi trade what's next 18 and up only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Quality products are not available in all jurisdictions prices values and available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information see koushi.com slash regulatory.

23:56I invite you to keep it out here you say you're finally doing the tarps off 321 for your chick talk is that what you said there during that ad read I'm pretty sure that's what I heard. I'm not sure what language you speak but I did not say that. Thanks so much for checking out today's podcast you can keep the conversation going with us after the show is over over on social media you can follow me at Jeff car with 3 F's on X or on tiktok and you can follow Steve at S off and Baker with 2 F's over on X and you can follow the show at lockdown reds on every social media app out there. Yeah no not not doing no tarps off not happening Steve the pitching has been bad lately. There's no no two ways about it we're not going to sugar code it because it's been bad and I think they've been working a little bit more with their travel agent than they have with whoever it is that's running the pitching side of things for the reds nowadays because

24:56they've been really bad basically since august 1st they've been really bad. Yeah you look at what they're doing since august 1st Jeff and again back of baseball cards god help us this pitching staff this is the starters 30th in ERA 28th in home runs per nine 28th in whip and 25th in walks per nine all those walks will hunt buddy. They aren't bad because this is especially extends individually to 3 guys in Andrew Abbott Brady singer and right louder who all are in the bottom 10 in ERA since august 1st for guys that have pitched at least 30 yennings or more. Abbott and louder didn't qualify like amongst qualified pitchers Brady singer has the second worst ERA in all of baseball since august 1st but I wanted to expand it out more because I'm like where do Abbott and louder rank yeah all three in the bottom 10 so for me that's

25:58like train figure okay where these guys going because it's clear they're done with this year like I mean they they were just mathematically eliminated but we all know they've basically been eliminated from contention for a while so let's see I think I got Andrew Abbott headed for a deep sea fishing excursion that's where I think he's probably gonna go here in the obfaces I bet you know what I could see ret louder back packing across the Swedish countryside yeah I can see that that's that's a possibility and then of course Brady singers likely headed for a nice relaxing stay at the Chateau de la Mésaire de Ré where they're filming the next season of the white lotus because he's looking to spend his qualifying off of these about to get to so that's that's where I'm seeing these guys going I think they've been working really hard on these vacation trips because they've not really been working very hard on pitchy bottom 10 in ERA 23 million dollar qualifying offer for

27:02Brady singer I just I can't do I just can't even wrap my head around it that that's what they're gonna do and I'm gonna spend a third of our budget on a guy who from August first on and the R.A. over seven that's insane it is absolutely insane by the way nice work with the French there buddy how many tries did that take you took me a few definitely took me a few I love that show the white lotus I'm looking forward to the next season whenever it's coming out but yeah I was like alright YouTube what you got here how do we save this here Chateau de la Mésaire de Ré but let's let's expand this out a little bit Jeff because it's not just the starting pictures that have been not good we'll just go that descriptor the bullpen as well the reds bullpen ERA during this time is the second worst in baseball only behind our good friends the Cincinnati Reds West the Seattle Mariners are the only team with a worse the two are a disappointing teams in baseball so disappointing like I know

28:07here for us in reds country obviously we are so disappointing how the reds have gone but for a moment consider where the Mariners were last year a win away from the world series they have the exact same record as the reds do right now how on earth did they take so bad year over I mean Cal Rally had one heck of a D Renaissance what do you call it so it's an awakening is it a sleeping is I will say if you if you want a definition of a sophomore slump if you want to see a sophomore slump but she wasn't a rookie last year but but yeah yeah yeah yeah like just watch his season this year it has not been fun but you know what I do know Jeff I know this about the Seattle Mariners they won't run it back with the status quo they won't not do something different they will make changes and that is the difference between the two organizations the reds will stand pat the Mariners will adapt and try to retool and that's

29:11probably the most frustrating part of it at least if you're a Mariners fan you know they'll try and fix it the reds they're handing out out of boys it's it's so frustrating to watch them man because like since I also took a look at this like since August first let's break that bullpened down a little bit Graham Ashcraft 23.14 ERA and his return from the injured list why did he return Tony Santiana 11.4 ERA he got TJ and Tony even has a 6.4 ERA Sam Maughat the can 6.2 ERA he's not gonna he's by the way he's not gonna get the 80 appearances this year not take I know even Luis May like I was really starting to buy into Luis May a little bit and he has decided over these last couple of months to just squash that he has been rough his walks per nine have gone down a bit I do hope and I will say this his ERA he's a perfect case of this where he's getting unlucky because his X-Fip has

30:14him at 3.12 as opposed to the 6.0 ERA that he's had since August first so maybe there's a little bit more to Luis May maybe he can actually take an X-Fip but like everybody's being infected with this it's not even senioritis is it is it lockoutitis like everybody looking forward to the lockout on the reds pitching staff like what are we doing here because they're not looking forward to pitching on a nightly basis they're getting their brains be then you you you look at it right now and it you know 162 games is a long season that is a grueling season and every month since April it's just continued to be a downhill slide I think that for some of these pictures there's a couple of them that just simply shouldn't be in the big leagues right now there's a couple of them that should not have fought their way back from injury to join this steaming pile of major league baseball and you know I can see that motivation would be lacking at this point these pictures thrive and survive on adrenaline and it would be really hard I would think at times

31:21to get yourself fired up to go out there and face a Dodgers lineup that you know is going to beat your brains in for a team that is absolutely going nowhere so I kind of get how we've got where we're at but it is not fun to watch right now Graham we're glad to have you back dude the starter we just pulled him yeah I know it's only the fourth thing yeah I know we're down 12 nothing but we need you to go in there and pitch a clean inning so that maybe we can score a runner two and make this yeah I'm sure that really doesn't get you all that fired up steaming paint is steaming pile of baseball though I like that family show Jeff family show and that is where we're going to go ahead and wrap it up for today thanks as always for making locked on red your first list in each and every day for the audio folks go check out locked on MLB subtly covering all of baseball as the playoff pushes our underway he will keep you informed also have former reds with the river Mike Stanton over there giving you major league baseball from a retired players perspective and the folks at MLB game night watching every single game every single night so you don't have to for the video folks you're going to head over to lockdowns first ever 24 seven MLB baseball channel all baseball all the

32:26time just for you with all the experts of the lockdown network go check that out right now Jeff and I will be back in your feeds tomorrow gathering up all the news the notes the rumors the reports and the information to keep you locked on reds every single day last three to one Tuesday of the year tarps off further people yeah it's Halloween time at the Disneyland Resort and minis begun to brew up delights and spine tingling fun come see what becomes of Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure Park when Halloween takes hold Halloween time August 21st through October 31st visit Disneyland.com or contact your travel advisory for important details thank you for making locked on your first listen every day for your second listen find the all night locked on MLB game night every game every night

33:30until a world series champion is crowned get local analysis on a national scale find MLB game night on locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts